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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Comparison of Aero-Propulsive Performance Predictions for Distributed Propulsion Configurations

NASA's X-57 "Maxwell" flight demonstrator incorporates distributed electric propulsion technologies in a design that will achieve a significant reduction in energy used in cruise flight. A substantial portion of these energy savings come from beneficial aerodynamic-propulsion interaction. Previous research has shown the benefits of particular instantiations of distributed propulsion, such as the use of wingtip-mounted cruise propellers and leading edge high-lift propellers. However, these benefits have not been reduced to a generalized design or analysis approach suitable for large-scale design exploration. This paper discusses the rapid, "design-order" toolchains developed to investigate the large, complex tradespace of candidate geometries for the X-57. Due to the lack of an appropriate, rigorous set of validation data, the results of these tools were compared to three different computational flow solvers for selected wing and propulsion geometries. The comparisons were conducted using a common input geometry, but otherwise different input grids and, when appropriate, different flow assumptions to bound the comparisons. The results of these studies showed that the X-57 distributed propulsion wing should be able to meet the as-designed performance in cruise flight, while also meeting or exceeding targets for high-lift generation in low-speed flight.

Borer, Nicholas K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Limitations of Separate Cloud and Rain Categories in Parameterizing Collision-Coalescence for Bulk Microphysics Schemes

Warm rain collision-coalescence has been persistently difficult to parameterize in bulk microphysics schemes. We use a flexible bulk microphysics scheme with bin scheme process parameterizations, called AMP, to investigate reasons for the difficulty. AMP is configured in a variety of ways to mimic bulk schemes and is compared to simulations with the bin scheme upon which AMP is built. We find that an important limitation in traditional bulk schemes is the use of separate cloud and rain categories. When the drop size distribution is instead represented by a continuous distribution, the simulation of cloud-to-rain conversion is substantially improved. We also find large sensitivity to the threshold size to distinguish cloud and rain in traditional schemes; substantial improvement is found by decreasing the threshold from 40 to 25 μm. Neither the use of an assumed functional form for the size distribution nor the choice of predicted distribution moments has a large impact on the ability of AMP to simulate rain production. When predicting four total moments of the liquid drop size distribution, either with a traditional two-category, two-moment scheme with a reduced size threshold, or a four-moment single-category scheme, errors in the evolution of mass and the cloud size distribution are similar, but the single-category scheme has a substantially better representation of the rain size distribution. Optimal moment combinations for the single-category approach are investigated and appear to be linked more to the information content they provide for constraining the size distributions than to their correlation with collision-coalescence rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Limitations of Separate Cloud and Rain Categories in Parameterizing Collision-Coalescence for Bulk Microphysics Schemes

Warm rain collision-coalescence has been persistently difficult to parameterize in bulk microphysics schemes. We use a flexible bulk microphysics scheme with bin scheme process parameterizations, called AMP, to investigate reasons for the difficulty. AMP is configured in a variety of ways to mimic bulk schemes and is compared to simulations with the bin scheme upon which AMP is built. We find that an important limitation in traditional bulk schemes is the use of separate cloud and rain categories. When the drop size distribution is instead represented by a continuous distribution, the simulation of cloud-to-rain conversion is substantially improved. We also find large sensitivity to the threshold size to distinguish cloud and rain in traditional schemes; substantial improvement is found by decreasing the threshold from 40 to 25 μm. Neither the use of an assumed functional form for the size distribution nor the choice of predicted distribution moments has a large impact on the ability of AMP to simulate rain production. When predicting four total moments of the liquid drop size distribution, either with a traditional two-category, two-moment scheme with a reduced size threshold, or a four-moment single-category scheme, errors in the evolution of mass and the cloud size distribution are similar, but the single-category scheme has a substantially better representation of the rain size distribution. Optimal moment combinations for the single-category approach are investigated and appear to be linked more to the information content they provide for constraining the size distributions than to their correlation with collision-coalescence rates.

autoconversion↗
NASA NTRS1994

Kinetic aspects of reconnection at the magnetopause

Observations presented here support the kinetic (or single particle) description of reconnection where ions interacting with the magnetopause conserve their pitch angles or change them by equal amounts as in adiabatic motion. These observations include ion reflection and transmission at the magnetopause and time of flight effects associated with the magnetopause layers, with an emphasis here on ion reflection. Velocities of the reflected distributions predicted from this kinetic description are in good agreement with observed velocities. However, predicted velocities for the transmitted distributions are often higher than observed ones. Reflected distributions are also heated at the magnetopause; however, this heating is less important than the large scale ion motion. Reflection coefficients at the magnetopause are high (averaging 30%), appear to be the same on either side of the magnetopause, and have little or no dependence on ion mass. Time of flight effects result from the finite extent of the reconnection layers and are best observed at the edges of the layers.

Fuselier, Stephen A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A model of the galactic tidal interaction with the Oort comet cloud

A model of the in situ Oort cloud which is isotropic with a random distribution of perihelia directions and angular momenta is considered. The energy distribution adopted has a continuous range of values appropriate for long-period (greater than 200 yr) comets. The evolution of 1,000,000 comets are tracked as they are made observable by the galactic tidal torque. Detailed results are obtained for the predicted distribution of new comets. Predictions of observed distributions are presented and compared with the random in situ results as well as with the actual observed distributions of class I comets. The predictions are in reasonable agreement with actual observations and, in many cases, are significantly different from random when perihelia directions are separated into galactic northern and southern hemispheres.

Matese, John J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distributed Maneuver Planning With Connected and Automated Vehicles for Boosting Traffic Efficiency

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) have the potential to improve traffic throughput and achieve a more efficient utilization of the available roadway infrastructure. They also have the potential to reduce energy consumption through traffic motion harmonization, even when operating in mixed traffic with other human-driven vehicles. The key to realizing these potentials are coordinated control schemes that can be implemented in a distributed manner with the CAVs. In this paper, we propose a distributed predictive control framework that features a two-dimensional maneuver planner incorporating explicit coordination constraints between connected vehicles operating in mixed traffic at various penetration levels. Here, the framework includes a distributed implementation of a reference speed assigner that estimates local traffic speed from on-board measurements and communicated information. We present an extensive evaluation of the proposed framework in traffic micro-simulations at various CAV penetrations from traffic flow, energy use, and lane utilization points of view. Results are compared to a baseline scenario with no CAVs, as well as, a benchmark one-dimensional planner.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

LANL-TAMUS Graduate Fellowship Report

The goal of this project is to conduct analysis of 147 Sm neutron transmission (n,tot) data at DICER alongside previously collected neutron capture (n,γ) data and report updated resonance parameters and spins. Measurement and analysis of neutron-capture data, without neutron transmission data, has been conducted before and showed that the gamma widths, Γ γ , and neutron widths, Γn, both deviate from the distributions predicted by well-established theory. Γ γ is expected to follow a narrow Gaussian distribution independent of energy but instead a broadening of the distribution around 350 eV incident neutron energy was observed (P. E. Koehler et al. Phys. Rev. C 108, 142502 (2012)). Γ n is predicted to follow a chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom known as the Porter-Thomas distribution but this prediction also failed above 350 eV incident neutron energy (P. E. Koehler et al. Phys. Rev. C 76, 025804 (2007)). This project seeks to reassess this past measurement by including neutron transmission data and simultaneously analyzing them alongside the neutron capture data to extract the most accurate measure of Γ γ and Γ n ever taken for the resonances of 147 Sm and see if theory holds or fails under a more refined measurement with newer data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Diolkos: Improving ethernet throughput through dynamic port selection

In large networked systems, a sudden increase in traffic could slowdown the network significantly, impacting network quality for multiple users. We present Diolkos, a system that leverages smart switches to dynamically re-reroute data flows in response to drops in performance. In contrast to other techniques, our tool predicts the future throughput at each port in a switch if a data flow were to be sent through it, and updates which port should be taken to maximize throughput. We use several techniques to predict network switch performance on a software defined network (SDN) mimicking topologies commonly found in datacenters. Experimentally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of choosing a port to send flows through based on predicted performance. We found that using a distributed predictive technique achieves a 24% improvement over using a traditional heuristic technique.

port selection, performance enhancement, Neural Ne↗
DOE OSTI2018

Probabilistic Short-Term Wind Forecasting Based on Pinball Loss Optimization

Probabilistic wind power forecasts that quantify the uncertainty in wind output have the potential to aid in the economic grid integration of wind power at large penetration levels. In this paper, a novel probabilistic wind forecasting approach based on pinball loss optimization is proposed, in conjunction with a multi-model machine learning based ensemble deterministic forecasting framework. By assuming the point-forecasted value as the mean at each point, one unknown parameter (i.e., standard deviation) of a predictive distribution at each forecasting point is determined by minimizing the pinball loss. A surrogate model is developed to represent the unknown distribution parameter as a function of deterministic forecasts. This surrogate model can be used together with deterministic forecasts to predict the unknown distribution parameter and thereby generate probabilistic forecasts. Numerical results of case studies show that the proposed method has improved the pinball loss by up to 35% compared to a baseline quantile regression forecasting model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Probabilistic Short-Term Wind Forecasting Based on Pinball Loss Optimization: Preprint

Probabilistic wind power forecasts that quantify the uncertainty in wind output have the potential to aid in the economic grid integration of wind power at large penetration levels. In this paper, a novel probabilistic wind forecasting approach based on pinball loss optimization is proposed, in conjunction with a multi-model machine learning based ensemble deterministic forecasting framework. By assuming the pointforecasted value as the mean at each point, one unknown parameter (i.e., standard deviation) of a predictive distribution at each forecasting point is determined by minimizing the pinball loss. A surrogate model is developed to represent the unknown distribution parameter as a function of deterministic forecasts. This surrogate model can be used together with deterministic forecasts to predict the unknown distribution parameter and thereby generate probabilistic forecasts. Numerical results of case studies show that the proposed method has improved the pinball loss by up to 35% compared to a baseline quantile regression forecasting model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

TOO MANY, TOO FEW, OR JUST RIGHT? THE PREDICTED NUMBER AND DISTRIBUTION OF MILKY WAY DWARF GALAXIES

We predict the spatial distribution and number of Milky Way dwarf galaxies to be discovered in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) surveys, by completeness correcting the observed Sloan Digital Sky Survey dwarf population. We apply most massive in the past, earliest forming, and earliest infall toy models to a set of dark matter-only simulated Milky Way/M31 halo pairs from the Exploring the Local Volume In Simulations project. Inclusive of all toy models and simulations, at 90% confidence we predict a total of 37-114 L ≳ 10{sup 3} L {sub ☉} dwarfs and 131-782 L ≲ 10{sup 3} L {sub ☉} dwarfs within 300 kpc. These numbers of L ≳ 10{sup 3} L {sub ☉} dwarfs are dramatically lower than previous predictions, owing primarily to our use of updated detection limits and the decreasing number of SDSS dwarfs discovered per sky area. For an effective r {sub limit} of 25.8 mag, we predict 3-13 L ≳ 10{sup 3} L {sub ☉} and 9-99 L ≲ 10{sup 3} L {sub ☉} dwarfs for DES, and 18-53 L ≳ 10{sup 3} L {sub ☉} and 53-307 L ≲ 10{sup 3} L {sub ☉} dwarfs for LSST. We also show that the observed spatial distribution of Milky Way dwarfs in the LSST-era will discriminate between the earliest infall and other simplified models for how dwarf galaxies populate dark matter subhalos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mapping of the mechanical response in Si/SiGe nanosheet device geometries

Abstract The performance of next-generation, nanoelectronic devices relies on a precise understanding of strain within the constituent materials. However, the increased flexibility inherent to these three-dimensional device geometries necessitates direct measurement of their deformation. Here we report synchrotron x-ray diffraction-based non-destructive nanoscale mapping of Si/SiGe nanosheets for gate-all-around structures. We identified two competing mechanisms at different length scales contributing to the deformation. One is consistent with the in-plane elastic relaxation due to the Ge lattice mismatch with the surrounding Si. The second is associated with the out-of-plane layering of the Si and SiGe regions at a length scale of film thickness. Complementary mechanical modeling corroborated the qualitative aspects of the deformation profiles observed across a variety of nanosheet sample widths. However, greater deformation is observed in the SiGe layers of the nanosheets than the predicted distributions. These insights could play a role in predicting carrier mobilities of future devices.

Murray, Conal E. (ORCID:0000000199014290)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Maximum Circular Velocity in Halo Occupation Distribution Models to Predict Galaxy Clustering

Abstract Standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) models predict how galaxies occupy halos based on a single property, the virial mass, M vir . To incorporate galaxy assembly bias, we consider alternative halo mass proxies to use in the HOD. A promising replacement is maximum circular velocity, V max , which measures the halo’s potential well, and successfully predicts galaxy clustering in subhalo abundance matching models. We fit galaxy clustering measurements from SDSS DR7 with two modified HODs besides the standard M vir -based model: one where V max is used as the halo property that determines galaxy occupation, and the other adopting an adjustable combination of M vir and V max . Except for the reduced volume M r < − 20 threshold sample fit with V max alone, neither change improves the model performance in predicting the projected two-point correlation function, w p . We conclude that switching the primary variable to V max does not significantly improve the HOD model’s ability to fit galaxy clustering.

Mezini, Lorena↗
NASA NTRS1988

Boundary layer development as a function of chamber pressure in the NASA Lewis 1030:1 area ratio rocket nozzle

Through the use of theoretical predictions of fluid properties and experimental heat transfer and thrust measurements, the zones of laminar, transitional, and turbulent boundary layer flow were defined for the NASA Lewis 1030:1 area ratio rocket nozzle. Tests were performed on the nozzle at chamber pressures from 350 to 100 psia. For these conditions, the throat diameter Reynolds numbers varied from 300,000 to 1 million. The propellants used were gaseous hydrogen and gaseous oxygen. Thrust measurements and nozzle outer wall temperature measurements were taken during the 3-sec test runs. Comparison of experimental heat transfer and thrust data with the corresponding predictions from the Two-Dimensional Kinetics (TDK) nozzle analysis program indicated laminar flow in the nozzle at a throat diameter Reynolds number of 320,000 or chamber pressure of 360 psia. Comparison of experimental and predicted heat transfer data indicated transitional flow up to and including a chamber pressure of 1000 psia. Predicted values of the axisymmetric acceleration parameter within the convergent and divergent nozzle were consistent with the above results. Based upon an extrapolation of the heat transfer data and predicted distributions of the axisymmetric acceleration parameter, transitional flow was predicted up to a throat diameter Reynolds number of 220,000 or 2600-psia chamber pressure. Above 2600-psia chamber pressure, fully developed turbulent flow was predicted.

Smith, Tamara A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Boundary layer development as a function of chamber pressure in the NASA Lewis 1030:1 area ratio rocket nozzle

Through the use of theoretical predictions of fluid properties and experimental heat transfer and thrust measurements, the zones of laminar, transitional, and turbulent boundary layer flow were defined for the NASA Lewis 1039:1 area ratio rocket nozzle. Tests were performed on the nozzle at chamber pressures from 350 to 100 psia. For these conditions, the throat diameter Reynolds numbers varied from 300,000 to 1 million. The propellants used were gaseous hydrogen and gaseous oxygen. Thrust measurements and nozzle outer wall temperature measurements were taken during the 3-sec test runs. Comparison of experimental heat transfer and thrust data with the corresponding predictions from the Two-Dimensional Kinetics (TDK) nozzle analysis program indicated laminar flow in the nozzle at a throat diameter Reynolds number of 320,000 or chamber pressure of 360 psia. Comparison of experimental and predicted heat transfer data indicated transitional flow up to and including a chamber pressure of 1000 psia. Predicted values of the axisymmetric acceleration parameter within the convergent and divergent nozzle were consistent with the above results. Based upon an extrapolation of the heat transfer data and predicted distributions of the axisymmetric acceleration parameter, transitional flow was predicted up to a throat diameter Reynolds number of 220,000 or 2600-psia chamber pressure. Above 2600-psia chamber pressure, fully developed turbulent flow was predicted.

Smith, Tamara A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Binary–Host Connection: Astrophysics of Gravitational-Wave Binaries from Host Galaxy Properties

Gravitational waves from the merger of binary neutron stars (BNSs) are accompanied by electromagnetic counterparts, making it possible to identify the associated host galaxy. In this work, we explore how properties of the hosts relate to the astrophysical processes leading to the mergers. It is thought that the BNS merger rate within a galaxy at a given epoch depends primarily on the galaxy's star formation history, as well as the underlying merger time-delay distribution of the binary systems. The stellar history of a galaxy, meanwhile, depends on the cosmological evolution of the galaxy through time, and is tied to the growth of structure in the universe. We study the hosts of BNS mergers in the context of structure formation by populating the UniverseMachine simulations with gravitational wave (GW) events, based on a simple time-delay model. We find that different time-delay distributions predict different properties of the associated host galaxies, including the distributions of stellar mass, star formation rate, halo mass, and local and large-scale clustering of hosts. Moreover, BNSs merging today with short delay times occur preferentially in hosts with high star formation rates, while those with long delay times live in dense regions within massive halos that have low star formation. Here, we show that with ${ \mathcal O }(10)$ events from current GW detector networks, it is possible to make preliminary distinctions between formation channels which trace stellar mass, halo mass, or star formation rate. We also find that strategies to follow-up GW events with electromagnetic telescopes can be significantly optimized using the clustering properties of their hosts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗