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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Condition monitoring and anomaly detection in cyber-physical systems

The modern industrial environment is equipping myriads of smart manufacturing machines where the state of each device can be monitored continuously. Such monitoring can help identify possible future failures and develop a cost-effective maintenance plan. However, it is a daunting task to perform early detection with low false positives and negatives from the huge volume of collected data. This requires developing a holistic machine learning framework to address the issues in condition monitoring of high priority components and develop efficient techniques to detect anomalies that can detect and possibly localize the faulty components. This paper presents a comparative analysis of recent machine learning approaches for robust, cost-effective anomaly detection in cyber-physical systems. While detection has been extensively studied, very few researchers have analyzed the localization of the anomalies. We show that supervised learning outperforms unsupervised algorithms. For supervised cases, we achieve near-perfect accuracy of 98% (specifically for tree-based algorithms). In contrast, the best-case accuracy in the unsupervised cases was 63%—the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) exhibits similar outcomes as an additional metric.

Marfo, William↗

Messaging for Impact: Behavioral Science-Based Communication Strategies to Advance Energy Efficiency

Currently, five legal authorities require U.S. federal agencies to purchase energy-efficient products. However, compliance with these requirements has consistently been low (~55%). Recent surveys indicate that energy efficiency requirements are not communicated properly within federal agencies and energy-efficiency is not a top priority. In the constantly evolving energy industry, with many solutions for a clean energy future, effective communication methods are vital for widespread adoption of energy efficiency. We have been conducting experiments within the U.S. federal sector that test the effectiveness of messaging strategies developed by using behavioral science principles like loss aversion, framing, and herd behavior. This will identify effective communications methods that encourage energy efficiency adoption. In this study, we measure the effectiveness of different communication strategies by monitoring the web traffic of hyperlinks placed within our digital communications and outreach materials. To determine effective strategies that influence federal buyer behavior, the web traffic from subjects that received the behavioral science-based messaging (treatment group) is compared to that from subjects that received regular messaging (control group) for each of the strategies. This paper provides an overview of the behavioral science principles that we applied, data collection methods, and results of our analysis. Since the lack of effective communication of energy-efficiency policies is also a common problem in the private sector, the messaging strategies developed in this study can be applicable to other large private sector institutions

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Continuous Monitoring and Partial Water Softening for Cooling Tower Water Treatment

Cooling towers are an integral component of many refrigeration systems, providing comfort or process cooling across a broad range of applications. They are the point in the system where heat is dissipated to the atmosphere through the evaporative cooling process. Cooling towers are commonly found in industrial applications and are also often used in water-cooled chilled water plants in medium to large commercial buildings. Continuous monitoring and partial water softening for cooling towers used in medium to large commercial buildings are the focus of this paper. Cooling towers consume large amounts of water. Cooling tower-related water consumption is one of largest potable water loads within buildings in the United States, with substantial building water use associated with heating and cooling. Regional water shortages have highlighted a need to reduce water consumption; the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) and Executive Order 13834 place priority on reducing water consumption. This priority has fueled interest in the identification, investigation, and potential broad deployment of cost-effective opportunities to reduce water use, such as alternative water treatment (AWT) technologies for cooling towers. Traditional water treatment approaches use chemicals to extend the ability of the water to hold scaling minerals in suspension, minimize corrosion, and prevent biological growth. This treatment protects the chillers and cooling tower equipment; however, even when chemicals are used regularly, a certain percentage of condenser water must be drained and made up with fresh water to maintain system water quality parameters. In addition, the use of chemicals sometimes creates a waste disposal issue and can cause building owners to incur additional fees, such as disposal or wastewater charges. To manage cooling tower water treatment, GSA typically contracts with a company specializing in conventional chemical maintenance for a fixed fee. While there are many types and vendors of AWT systems, this project assesses the effectiveness of one technology provided by Aqualogix. This system is a chilled water plant monitoring and control system aimed at optimizing system performance by reducing the blowdown occurrences used to remove mineral build-up. The technology consists of two components – continuous programmable logic control (PLC) monitoring and side-stream filtration with partial water softening. PLC monitoring calculates cycles of concentration (CoC) and determines the optimum amount of blowdown water required to satisfy all water chemistry requirements. Side-stream filtration removes suspended matter and improves biocide efficacy while precisely dispensing softened water to achieve optimal makeup water hardness. Unlike other AWT systems evaluated by GSA to date, this system does not replace the legacy treatment system but is used in addition to chemical water treatment. The vendor claims their technology will reduce water consumption, water discharge, and maintenance costs. The AWT system evaluated in this demonstration is a commercialized technology. Given its commercialized state, the system evaluated in this report is at a Technology Readiness Level 9 according to National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) definitions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Technology Roadmap for Advanced Geothermal Well Construction

Recent analysis has shown that by 2050, geothermal energy can supply up to 90 GW of power to the U.S. electrical grid. Reducing the lifecycle cost of geothermal wells is critical to achieving this level of adoption. While time-related costs of drilling remain an important issue, there is also a need to focus on the costs associated with casing and cementing of geothermal wells. This report provides a roadmap of R&D activities needed to reduce the life cycle cost of casing and cementing while improving life-of-well performance. The purpose of the roadmap is to develop priorities for R&D in the areas of (1) high-performance and cost-effective materials for target geothermal well conditions, (2) well construction methods and techniques to reduce construction costs, and (3) methods and techniques to decrease to decrease long-term operating costs. The roadmap sets targets for the next 10-year period and purposely excludes R&D efforts into improved rock reduction. The roadmap was developed by a joint working group of experts from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories as well as 35 experts from industry and academia. Input from a series of information gathering sessions was used to inform and guide the development of the roadmap.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

SURVEILLANCE DETECTION FOR TRANSPORTATION OPERATIONS PERSONNEL TO PREVENT HIJACKING, THEFT, SABOTAGE, AND MALICIOUS SECURITY EVENTS DURING TRANSPORTING NUCLEAR MATERIAL

The secure transportation of high-consequence materials, including nuclear and radiological assets, is a critical global priority in the face of escalating terrorism, security threats, and violent protests targeting these operations. Effective surveillance detection—the ability to identify, assess, and respond to potential threats across a continuum of scenarios—is paramount in addressing these challenges. This paper outlines a phased, multi-tiered training program designed to strengthen the surveillance detection capabilities of organizations responsible for nuclear material transport. The proposed training program adopts a progressive approach, gradually increasing in technical complexity to provide participants with comprehensive knowledge and tools for implementing robust security strategies. It targets a wide spectrum of stakeholders, including competent authorities, regulators, inspectors, shippers, carriers, law enforcement, and emergency response personnel, equipping them to plan, evaluate, and safeguard nuclear material transportation effectively. Each phase of the program emphasizes distinct elements of the surveillance detection continuum and transport security, focusing on critical topics such as threat identification, adversary task timelines, protective methodologies, and attack mitigation strategies. The training framework is anchored in technical exchanges and scenario-driven courses that reflect real-world complexities and challenges. By addressing the surveillance detection continuum comprehensively—from early threat assessment to active countermeasures—the program reinforces global efforts to secure nuclear assets. It aligns with international security objectives and fosters a strong security culture within participating organizations, ensuring personnel are prepared to counter potential threats and maintain the safe, secure movement of these materials. Ultimately, this initiative aims to enhance preparedness, security, and response capabilities, supporting the global mission to safeguard high-consequence materials against evolving threats.

Zineddin, Dr. Z. [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000848740725)↗

Transactive Emergency Power Allocation

The devastating impacts of extreme weather events, many of which are climate-change related, are increasingly evident through the frequency and duration of outages on power grids, especially the distribution systems. One of the major modern-day concerns of utilities is dealing with such extreme supply outages where operators have used rolling blackouts as a contingency plan balance supply and demand while serving critical loads. Such events have significant repercussions social and economic costs. Such blackouts practices are a blunt instrument, depriving customers with low-capacity high-priority loads (i.e. refrigeration, water, telecommunication, etc.) that provide high marginal amenity. Our contribution presented in this work is a transactive emergency allocation mechanism that would provide some minimum level of service to all of the customers while enabling preference-based trading of this initial allocation. This is in contrast to the state-of-art TE mechanisms that allocate resources to customers solely based on their willingness-to-pay. The effectiveness of the proposed mechanism is demonstrated through simulation-based evaluation on a prototypical distribution system experiencing 12-hour scarcity-based emergency event due to extreme operating conditions. Simulation results clearly demonstrate the capability of the proposed transactive emergency allocation mechanism in effectively utilizing the available energy and providing some level of service to all customers to operate their high-priority loads throughout the extreme scarcity event while being economically efficient in allowing trading of allocation based on customer preferences.

transactive energy, power system economics, emerge↗

MFIX DEM Enhancement for Industry-Relevant Flows (Final Report)

The overall goal of this two-phase project is to implement performance improvements of the Multiphase Flow with Interphase Exchanges (MFIX) Discrete Element Model (DEM) code that enable a transformative shift for industrial use. Prior to this effort, the largest simulations performed using MFIX are O(10 7 ) particles. This falls short of the O(10 9 ) particle simulations that must be completed on a timescale of days or weeks (vs. months or years) to enable simulations with physically-relevant domain sizes to be incorporated into industrial design cycles within five years. This was accomplished by tailoring best-in-class practices to bear on the unique challenges posed by the MFIX-DEM algorithm and code base. Scientific simulations (e.g., in cosmology, turbulent combustion) routinely use massively parallel computing to update far more particles in short wall clock times. Results from Phase 1 (1.5 years in duration) indicated significant gains in speed were possible for a wide range of benchmark cases. Moreover, a survey sent to >35 companies indicates that the timing is ideal for such an enhanced tool, with >80% of the respondents indicating that DEM is already value-added or will be within the next 5 years, and >70% of the respondents indicating that improved speed is the top computational priority. In Phase 2 (3.5 years in duration), the two major barriers that hinder industry from effectively using multiphase Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to cut costs and improve performance, namely computational overhead and confidence in predictions, continued to be addressed. Regarding the former, the results from Phase 1 to guide the effort, with enhancements focused on an improved time-stepping algorithm and particle sorting. Four target problems of 1 billion particles each and increasing complexity were identified: homogeneous cooling, tumbler with continuous particle size distribution, discharge from a rectangular hopper and a cylindrical riser. Each of these were successfully simulated for relevant time scales (on order of seconds) using less than 24 hours of wall clock time. These represent the first 1-billion particle DEM simulations performed with MFIX, namely using the MFIX-Exa code. This code is currently under development at NETL in collaboration with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Regarding the second barrier on predictive uncertainty, experiments from Phase 1 (interacting nozzles - hydrodynamics only) and Phase 2 (very small-scale segregation experiments) were used to demonstrate the ability of two simplified approaches to uncertainty quantification (UQ). By limiting the number of particles, UQ based on the simplified treatment was compared to standard UQ, which was shown to have much higher computational demands. Experiments were also performed on a pilot-scale stripper unit to provide validation data for future CFD-DEM simulations and UQ.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Learning from Arctic Microgrids: Cost and Resiliency Projections for Renewable Energy Expansion with Hydrogen and Battery Storage

Electricity in rural Alaska is provided by more than 200 standalone microgrid systems powered predominantly by diesel generators. Incorporating renewable energy generation and storage to these systems can reduce their reliance on costly imported fuel and improve sustainability; however, uncertainty remains about optimal grid architectures to minimize cost, including how and when to incorporate long-duration energy storage. This study implements a novel, multi-pronged approach to assess the techno-economic feasibility of future energy pathways in the community of Kotzebue, which has already successfully deployed solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and battery storage systems. Using real community load, resource, and generation data, we develop a series of comparison models using the HOMER Pro software tool to evaluate microgrid architectures to meet over 90% of the annual community electricity demand with renewable generation, considering both battery and hydrogen energy storage. We find that near-term planned capacity expansions in the community could enable over 50% renewable generation and reduce the total cost of energy. Additional build-outs to reach 75% renewable generation are shown to be competitive with current costs, but further capacity expansion is not currently economical. We additionally include a cost sensitivity analysis and a storage capacity sizing assessment that suggest hydrogen storage may be economically viable if battery costs increase, but large-scale seasonal storage via hydrogen is currently unlikely to be cost-effective nor practical for the region considered. While these findings are based on data and community priorities in Kotzebue, we expect this approach to be relevant to many communities in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions working to improve energy reliability, sustainability, and security.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Artificial Intelligence for (AI) Nuclear Security: Expert Perspectives on AI Priorities for the Office of International Nuclear Security

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform nuclear security operations, offering opportunities to enhance effectiveness while simultaneously introducing new challenges. As AI technologies rapidly evolve, agencies across the United States Government (USG) are researching, implementing, and evaluating various AI models and systems. Given the broad capabilities and applications of these technologies, it is essential for each agency to identify and articulate those areas where it can make meaningful contributions aligned with its mission and expertise. To address this need for strategic focus, in late Fiscal Year 2025 (FY2025), the Office of International Nuclear Security (INS) established an AI Task Force (AITF) to gather input from subject matter experts (SMEs) regarding the most appropriate role INS could serve in researching, evaluating, or implementing AI for nuclear security. The AITF engaged 15 experts from national laboratories with backgrounds in cyber security, physical security, transport security, insider threat mitigation, nuclear engineering, human-systems engineering, and AI/ML development. This white paper summarizes the insights gathered from these SMEs and presents a potential roadmap for INS engagement with AI technologies. The recommendations outlined here are intended to inform INS leadership as they make strategic decisions about resource allocation and program direction in this rapidly evolving technological domain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Heliostat Aiming Strategies for Arbitrary Flux Profiles for High Temperature Gas-Based Receivers

High temperature gas-based receivers are seen as one potential path toward achieving the next generation of concentrated solar power tower systems. A key challenge associated with high temperature, high pressure heat transfer fluids is the lifetime of receiver containment materials. Achieving the desired lifetime while also designing an efficient receiver requires implementation of unique flux profiles, tailored to place high fluxes at cold fluid injection points. An aimpoint selection methodology was developed in the present study to allow user-defined flux profiles to be prescribed for a receiver. The methodology was implemented in NREL's open-source software SolarPILOT, modifying the existing “image size priority” aimpoint strategy. A case study for a tubular gas-based receiver is presented, examining the effect of various parameters on the ability to replicate the desired flux profile.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

The Second Radio Synchrotron Background Workshop: Conference Summary and Report

We summarize the second radio synchrotron background workshop, which took place on 2022 June 15–17 in Barolo, Italy. This meeting was convened because available measurements of the diffuse radio zero level continue to suggest that it is several times higher than can be attributed to known Galactic and extragalactic sources and processes, rendering it the least well-understood electromagnetic background at present and a major outstanding question in astrophysics. The workshop agreed on the next priorities for investigations of this phenomenon, which include searching for evidence of the radio Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect, carrying out cross-correlation analyses of radio emission with other tracers, and supporting the completion of the 310 MHz absolutely calibrated sky map project.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Identifying Urban Pluvial Frequency Flooding Hotspots Using the Topographic Control Index and Remote Sensing Radar Images for Early Warning Systems

Identifying areas that frequently experience post-rainfall ponding is essential for effective flood mitigation and planning. This study integrates Sentinel-1 radar imagery and the Topographic Control Index (TCI) to identify 378 flood-prone urban depressions in Beaumont, Texas. Out of 159 major rainfall events, only six had Sentinel-1 radar imagery acquired within six hours of peak rainfall, and these were used to generate the flood frequency map; the ground-based flood sensor data were used to verify that these selected events corresponded to actual peak rainfall and to validate radar-detected water pixels. Validation results showed 100% precision, 70.87% recall, an F1-score of 82.95%, and 71.32% overall accuracy. Approximately 84% of medium-to-high TCI depressions overlapped with Beaumont’s two-year inundation map, confirming a strong relationship between TCI and observed flooding. A total of 124 depressions retained significant water, and after excluding 25 engineered detention ponds, 99 natural depressions remained flood vulnerable. Among these, 74 depressions with medium or high TCI were identified as the highest-priority nuisance flooding hotspots. The results demonstrate that combining TCI with radar imagery provides a reliable and cost-effective approach for identifying areas prone to frequent urban ponding. This framework supports practical decision-making for drainage improvements, hotspot identification, and early-warning system development in urban flood-prone regions.

Sentinel-1 radar imagery↗

Canopy tree mortality depends on the proportion of crown exposed to sunlight, but this effect varies with species' wood density

Abstract Understanding what drives changes in tree mortality as well as the covariates influencing trees' response is a research priority to predict forest responses to global change. Here, we combined drone photogrammetry and ground‐based data to assess the influence of crown exposure to light (relative to total crown area), growth deviations (relative to conspecifics), tree size, and species' wood density (as a surrogate for light‐demanding and shade‐tolerant life‐history strategies) on the mortality of 984 canopy trees in an Amazonterra firmeforest. Trees with lower wood density were less prone to die when their proportion of crown was more exposed to sunlight, but this relationship with relative crown exposure weakened and slightly reversed as wood density increased. Trees growing less than their species average had higher mortality, especially when the species' wood density decreased. The role of wood density in determining the survival of canopy trees under varying light conditions indicates differential responses of light‐demanding versus shade‐tolerant species. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for life‐history strategies, via plant functional types, in vegetation dynamic models aiming to predict forest demography under a rapidly changing climate. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis for a Photovoltaic Inverter

While PV panel reliability continues to increase, PV inverters become the limiting factor for PV system reliability. Consequently, it is critical to have a generic tool from a third party for PV inverter reliability assessment to help 1) utilities/PV farm operators schedule maintenance in advance, and 2) inverter developers improve the next-generation design. However, these two things cannot be accomplished without first understanding the reasons behind inverter failure. Following this idea, as the first step, it is essential to identify and investigate the most failure-prone components within a PV inverter system. After all, any system is only as reliable as the components that are contained within it. This motivates the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) work presented for this workshop. The FMEA is conducted as follows: first, the overview of the methodology on the development of the FMEA is presented; then, based on a top-down approach starting from the PV inverter system, critical inverter components with high failure rates are identified and summarized; afterward, a thorough FMEA study at a component-level is performed and its results, including failure modes, failure mechanisms, and critical stressors, are tabulated; finally, according to three rankings (chance of occurrence, severity of occurrence, and ease of detection prior to failure) for each failure mechanism provided by the FMEA, risk priority numbers are calculated and the failure mechanisms along with the critical stressors are ranked in terms of their potentially detrimental effect on the PV inverter.

Brown, Buck↗

Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers

Fire is a powerful ecological and evolutionary force that regulates organismal traits, population sizes, species interactions, community composition, carbon and nutrient cycling and ecosystem function. It also presents a rapidly growing societal challenge, due to both increasingly destructive wildfires and fire exclusion in fire–dependent ecosystems. As an ecological process, fire integrates complex feedbacks among biological, social and geophysical processes, requiring coordination across several fields and scales of study. Here, we describe the diversity of ways in which fire operates as a fundamental ecological and evolutionary process on Earth. We explore research priorities in six categories of fire ecology: (a) characteristics of fire regimes, (b) changing fire regimes, (c) fire effects on above–ground ecology, (d) fire effects on below–ground ecology, (e) fire behaviour and (f) fire ecology modelling. We identify three emergent themes: the need to study fire across temporal scales, to assess the mechanisms underlying a variety of ecological feedbacks involving fire and to improve representation of fire in a range of modelling contexts. As fire regimes and our relationships with fire continue to change, prioritizing these research areas will facilitate understanding of the ecological causes and consequences of future fires and rethinking fire management alternatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Achieving Cooperative Community Equitable Solar Sources (ACCESS) (Final Technical Report)

Since 2011, solar has grown from a niche technology to a widely accessible source of power for homes and businesses across the United States and has become a fundamental part of the modern grid. There are still challenges, however, in learning how to integrate and use PV most effectively and how to make PV universally available. Most low- and moderate-income (LMI) customers cannot currently afford PV; capital costs and financing costs are too high to drive significant penetration. Providing access to LMI individuals and communities is a critical and immediate priority, and the focus of this project. The overall objective of the Achieving Cooperative Community Equitable Solar Sources (ACCESS) project is to explore and amplify the use of innovative, cost-effective energy access programs to serve co-ops’ LMI members1. ACCESS will research at least three financing mechanisms and at least six LMI program designs including LMI engagement strategies to maximize participation for these hard-to-reach audiences. ACCESS evaluated the financial mechanisms and program designs from field tests sited at diverse co-ops that provide recognizable models for the broader co-op community to identify optimal solutions for small utilities. The research with these cooperatives allowed testing of concepts and development of models and tools for other utilities to adapt to their own program designs and expansions. ACCESS published results and developed an “ACCESS Solar Access Toolkit” consisting of program designs, LMI engagement strategies, how-to guidance, and other tools to facilitate replication at small utilities across the country. Through the dissemination practices of the ACCESS project team, all NRECA member co-ops (~900) were made aware of the “ACCESS Solar Access Toolkit” and all other ACCESS resources. NRECA and its partners developed innovations to expand co-ops’ solar energy offerings to provide all of a co-op’s members—especially those who struggle to pay their bills—with cost-effective options that meet their needs. ACCESS specifically explored utility financing mechanisms and program designs that, independently or used in combination, increase solar access for rural electric cooperatives’ LMI members/ratepayers and that reduce LMI member/ratepayers’ electricity costs by at least 10%. LMI engagement strategies focused on maximizing the number of members who receive benefits and on the cost savings to LMI participants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Scout Benchmark Scenarios for U.S. Building Energy and CO2 Emissions to 2050

Overview and Intended Use Cases: These scenarios establish a range of futures for U.S. buildings sector energy use and CO2 emissions to 2050 using Scout (scout.energy.gov), a reproducible and granular model of U.S. building energy use, emissions, and consumer costs developed by the U.S. national labs for the U.S. Department of Energy's Building Technologies Office (BTO). Scout benchmark scenario data are suitable for the following example use cases: setting high-level policy goals for the U.S. buildings sector to 2050 (e.g., X% building CO2 emissions reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2030, Y% reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2050); exploring the effects of key dynamics driving U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions to 2050 that could be affected by policy levers (e.g., raising minimum technology performance levels; accelerating electrification and/or retrofit rates; introducing breakthrough technologies to the market); determining priority segments (regions, building types, and end use/technology types) and sequencing of U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions reductions to 2050 under a given set of assumptions; and/or identifying the energy and emissions impacts or cost effectiveness of specific technologies or operational approaches of interest—in isolation or after considering competition with other measures in a scenario portfolio. Scenario Summary: A total of 8 scenarios explore the effects of changes across both the demand- and supply-side of building energy use on annual U.S. building energy use and CO2 emissions from 2022–2050. Scenarios are organized into three groups representing low, moderate, and best-case potentials for building decarbonization, respectively.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The uncertain role of rising atmospheric CO 2 on global plant transpiration

As CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere rises, there is a need for improved physical understanding of its impact on global plant transpiration. This knowledge gap poses a major hurdle in robustly projecting changes in the global hydrologic cycle. For this reason, here we review the different processes by which atmospheric CO 2 concentration affects plant transpiration, the several uncertainties related to the complex physiological and radiative processes involved, and the knowledge gaps which need to be filled in order to improve predictions of plant transpiration. Additionally, although there is a high degree of certainty that rising CO 2 will impact plant transpiration, the exact nature of this impact remains unclear due to complex interactions between CO 2 and climate, and key aspects of plant morphology and physiology. The interplay between these factors has substantial consequences not only for future climate and global vegetation, but also for water availability needed for sustaining the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. Future changes in global plant transpiration in response to enhanced CO 2 are expected to be driven by water availability, atmospheric evaporative demand, plant physiological processes, emergent plant disturbances related to increasing temperatures, and the modification of plant physiology and coverage. Considering the universal sensitivity of natural and agricultural systems to terrestrial water availability we argue that reliable future projections of transpiration is an issue of the highest priority, which can only be achieved by integrating monitoring and modeling efforts to improve the representation of CO 2 effects on plant transpiration in the next generation of earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗