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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Chaotic neural dynamics facilitate probabilistic computations through sampling

Cortical neurons exhibit highly variable responses over trials and time. Theoretical works posit that this variability arises potentially from chaotic network dynamics of recurrently connected neurons. Here, we demonstrate that chaotic neural dynamics, formed through synaptic learning, allow networks to perform sensory cue integration in a sampling-based implementation. We show that the emergent chaotic dynamics provide neural substrates for generating samples not only of a static variable but also of a dynamical trajectory, where generic recurrent networks acquire these abilities with a biologically plausible learning rule through trial and error. Furthermore, the networks generalize their experience in the stimulus-evoked samples to the inference without partial or all sensory information, which suggests a computational role of spontaneous activity as a representation of the priors as well as a tractable biological computation for marginal distributions. These findings suggest that chaotic neural dynamics may serve for the brain function as a Bayesian generative model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Unknown Waveform Detection by Learning Intra and Inter-domain Dependencies with Advanced Attention Fusion Mechanisms

Detection of unknown waveforms in mission-critical communications is a crucial area of interest for the Department of Energy (DoE). Traditional methods and recent deep learning-based approaches often assume that the training set includes all possible classes, which is impractical for detecting new waveforms. This limitation gives rise to the problem of open-set recognition (OSR), which involves correctly identifying known classes while detecting and rejecting unknown or unseen classes. To address this limitation, we propose a novel dual-domain complex-valued neural architecture that jointly processes time-domain and frequency-domain signal representations using transformer mechanisms. A transformer model is a deep learning architecture that uses self-attention mechanisms to process and learn relationships in sequential data. Our model employs a cosine similarity loss to extract domain-specific features and incorporates a transformer architecture in the latent space to weigh the importance of different features from the time and frequency domains. The transformer layer includes stacked self-attention and cross-attention modules to learn intra-domain and inter-domain dependencies, creating a more holistic signal representation. An attention-based fusion module intelligently combines the time and frequency-domain features using multi-head attention, enabling the network to learn the optimal feature for each domain in each input signal. Quantitative results demonstrate the impact of these architectural choices on overall performance, showing significant improvement after incorporating self and cross-attention modules and using complex attention fusion over simple weighted fusion. Our ongoing work will focus on addressing the limitations of threshold-based OSR methods by developing a novel generative framework that integrates a conditional diffusion probabilistic model (DPM). DPM is a generative framework that learns to synthesize complex data by reversing a gradual noising process using a neural network trained to denoise step-by-step. Our goal is to leverage the inherent strengths of DPMs for identifying unknown signals more robustly. One primary advantage of using a DPM is its ability to provide a more reliable anomaly score based on the model's reconstruction error, rather than relying solely on classifier confidence. Additionally, the iterative denoising process of DPMs makes this approach naturally resilient to low Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) conditions, where traditional methods often fail. By implementing this generative framework, we aim to enhance the model's capability to accurately detect unknown waveforms and maintain performance in challenging environments.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian learning with Gaussian processes for low-dimensional representations of time-dependent nonlinear systems

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that poses the problem of learning low-dimensional model terms as a regression of state space data and corresponding time derivatives by minimizing the residual of reduced system equations. Standard operator inference models perform well with accurate training data that are dense in time, but producing stable and accurate models when the state data are noisy and/or sparse in time remains a challenge. Another challenge is the lack of uncertainty estimation for the predictions from the operator inference models. Our approach addresses these challenges by incorporating Gaussian process surrogates into the operator inference framework to (1) probabilistically describe uncertainties in the state predictions and (2) procure analytical time derivative estimates with quantified uncertainties. The formulation leads to a generalized least-squares regression and, ultimately, reduced-order models that are described probabilistically with a closed-form expression for the posterior distribution of the operators. The resulting probabilistic surrogate model propagates uncertainties from the observed state data to reduced-order predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method is effective for constructing low-dimensional models of two nonlinear partial differential equations representing a compressible flow and a nonlinear diffusion–reaction process, as well as for estimating the parameters of a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations representing compartmental models in epidemiology.

Data-driven model reduction↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed MultiPphysics BestEestimate Plus Uncertainties (BEPU) Application Development of RELAP5-3D Perturbation Model

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to ensure maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit. Safety is a key parameter to all aspects related to light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially cost savings. Since the goal is to extend the lifetimes of these NPPs, the traditional deterministic safety concept may not guarantee a current economic asset. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has been promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) in this field to maximize the safety, economics, and performance of these NPPs through improved scientific understanding. One of the best practices to achieve this goal is to identify and optimize safety margins, which can lead to cost reduction. To do this, under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway will focus on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. The RISA Pathway will provide enhanced capabilities for analyzing and characterizing LWR systems performance by developing and demonstrating methods, tools, and data to enable risk-informed margins management (RIMM). The goals of the RISA Pathway are twofold: (1) deploy the risk-informed tools and methods that enable better representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) conduct advanced risk assessment applications with industry to support margin management strategies that enable more cost-effective plant operation. The tools and methods provided by the RISA Pathway will support effective margin management for both active and passive safety systems, structures, and components (SSC) of an NPP. The tools and methods used in the RISA Pathway should have high confidence and highest technical maturity for and implementation to industry at its current setting. They should also have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway will, therefore, perform a comprehensive assessment of verification and validation (V&V) status of RISA Toolkit to enhance credibility RISA Toolkit which be used by industry. This report summarizes RELAP5-3D development activities for best estimated and uncertainty (BEPU) capability to support ongoing RISA Pathway pilot projects for risk informed uncertainty quantification applications. Work scope includes (1) development of initial perturbation model for selected closure laws and (2) testing of suitable probability distribution functions (PDF) for the selected correlations. Developed BEPU modules are tested with selected separate effect cases and compared with conventional thermal-hydraulics model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Dose Assessment Model for Radioactive Waste Exposed by Gully Erosion at West Valley - 20513

The Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York, is the site of a former nuclear fuel reprocessing and radioactive waste disposal facility. Spent nuclear fuel was processed there from 1966 to 1972, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes in two disposal areas and a waste tank farm. Site operations also resulted in releases of radioactivity to site soils, groundwater, and to surface waters draining the site. The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating in a process of decision making for decommissioning those facilities remaining at the WNYNSC following the completion of Phase 1 decommissioning. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) was contracted to develop a probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) computer model to assist the agencies in this process. The PPA Model includes a contaminant transport component focusing on the movement of contaminants within and among environmental media including groundwater and surface water transport, contaminant translocation by plants and animals, diffusion, and erosion. The model also includes evaluation of potential exposure and health effects for a Resident Farmer exposure scenario, where the Resident Farmer represents a critical group, described as that group of individuals reasonably expected to receive the greatest exposure to residual radioactivity for any applicable set of circumstances. The West Valley Site is located in the glaciated Allegheny Plateau region of western New York State. The waste reprocessing and disposal areas were constructed on a relatively fat area of plateau dissected by drainages of Buttermilk Creek, including Erdman Brook, Franks Creek, and Quarry Creek. An important aspect of the contaminant transport component of the PPA model is consideration of erosive processes such as slumping of the stream slopes and the advance of gullies from these streams. These erosion processes remove material from the plateau, growing the size of the creek valleys and making them wider and deeper. Of particular interest for the impact of erosion is radioactive waste contained in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)-Licensed Disposal Area (NDA), the New York State-Licensed Disposal Area (SDA), and residual radiological inventory in the underground storage tanks at the Waste Tank Farm (WTF). The PPA Model is organized around geographically-defined facilities which were constructed upon the plateau, including the NDA, SDA, and WTF. Ongoing stream erosion processes will potentially transfer radioactive waste and residual inventory from these facilities to the ground surface on adjacent hillslope areas where erosion has breached the facility. Hence, it is important to evaluate the consequences of potential exposures to a Resident Farmer on the hillslopes below a breached facility. Two interrelated aspects of the dose assessment model related to hillslope exposure are discussed: 1) representation of the physical processes related to transport of radionuclides from facilities onto the hillslopes, and from the hillslopes into adjoining creeks where contaminated material migrates downstream with surface water and sediment, and; 2) adaptation of the activities associated with the Resident Farmer scenario to assess potential exposures to contamination in the hillslope areas. This discussion will cover the conceptual basis of the hillslope exposure and transport models, and also implementation in the PPA computer model. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

A knowledge-informed large language model framework for U.S. nuclear power plant shutdown initiating event classification for probabilistic risk assessment

Identifying and classifying shutdown initiating events (SDIEs) is critical for developing shutdown probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power plants. Existing computational approaches cannot achieve satisfactory performance due to the challenges of unavailable large, labeled datasets, imbalanced event types, and label noise. To address these challenges, we propose a hybrid pipeline that integrates a knowledge-informed machine learning model to prescreen non-SDIEs and a large language model (LLM) to classify SDIEs into four types. In the prescreening stage, we proposed a set of 44 SDIE text patterns that consist of the most salient keywords and phrases from six SDIE types. Text vectorization based on the SDIE patterns generates feature vectors that are highly separable by using a simple binary classifier. The second stage builds Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)-based LLM, which learns generic English language representations from self-supervised pretraining on a large dataset and adapts to SDIE classification by fine-tuning it on an SDIE dataset. The proposed approaches are evaluated on a dataset with 10,928 events using precision, recall ratio, F 1 score, and average accuracy. In conclusion, the results demonstrate that the prescreening stage can exclude more than 97% non-SDIEs, and the LLM achieves an average accuracy of 95.1% for SDIE classification.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

CAHS: Context-Aware Homology Search

Protein homology search is foundational to bioinformatics: it supports annotation transfer, structure/function inference, and evolutionary analysis over rapidly expanding sequence repositories (e.g., UniProtKB). Profile hidden Markov models (pHMMs), as implemented in HMMER, remain the most widely trusted approach because they provide statistically calibrated E-values; however, their gap behavior is fixed once a profile is trained, despite biological evidence that insertion/deletion tolerance varies across flexible loops and intrinsically disordered regions. We present CAHS (Context-Aware Homology Search), a lightweight query-time adapter for pHMM search that incorporates learned and biologically motivated signals without changing HMMER's downstream search pipeline or its calibrated E-value reporting. Given a query sequence, CAHS computes per-residue representations from a protein language model and a disorder predictor, maps these to profile coordinates, and modulates only match-state transition rows (gap-open and gap-extension probabilities) while preserving Plan7 constraints. We comprehensively evaluate CAHS across six structurally diverse protein families and multi-domain architectures against a 570k-sequence target corpus. CAHS expands detection capability, retrieving thousands of additional remote homologs at relaxed thresholds by maintaining alignment quality through flexible regions. For multi-domain proteins, context-aware modulation resolves 94% of fragmented alignments. Crucially, CAHS preserves hit-set invariance at stringent operating points (E<10-10), demonstrating increased statistical confidence without inflating false positives. Furthermore, sharper statistical distinction between homologs and background noise during early filter stages yields up to a 3.87× acceleration in end-to-end wall-clock time on high-performance computing clusters. Overall, CAHS illustrates a practical AI-for-science design pattern: augmenting a trusted probabilistic model with query-specific learned signals to improve interpretable, reproducible inference in data-rich biology.

Bhattaram, Swethasree [Georgia Institute of Techno↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tractometry of the Human Connectome Project: resources and insights

The Human Connectome Project (HCP) has become a keystone dataset in human neuroscience, with a plethora of important applications in advancing brain imaging methods and an understanding of the human brain. We focused on tractometry of HCP diffusion-weighted MRI (dMRI) data. We used an open-source software library (pyAFQ; https://yeatmanlab.github.io/pyAFQ) to perform probabilistic tractography and delineate the major white matter pathways in the HCP subjects that have a complete dMRI acquisition (n = 1,041). We used diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI) to model white matter microstructure in each voxel of the white matter, and extracted tract profiles of DKI-derived tissue properties along the length of the tracts. We explored the empirical properties of the data: first, we assessed the heritability of DKI tissue properties using the known genetic linkage of the large number of twin pairs sampled in HCP. Second, we tested the ability of tractometry to serve as the basis for predictive models of individual characteristics (e.g., age, crystallized/fluid intelligence, reading ability, etc.), compared to local connectome features. To facilitate the exploration of the dataset we created a new web-based visualization tool and use this tool to visualize the data in the HCP tractometry dataset. Finally, we used the HCP dataset as a test-bed for a new technological innovation: the TRX file-format for representation of dMRI-based streamlines. We released the processing outputs and tract profiles as a publicly available data resource through the AWS Open Data program's Open Neurodata repository. We found heritability as high as 0.9 for DKI-based metrics in some brain pathways. We also found that tractometry extracts as much useful information about individual differences as the local connectome method. We released a new web-based visualization tool for tractometry—“Tractoscope” (https://nrdg.github.io/tractoscope). We found that the TRX files require considerably less disk space-a crucial attribute for large datasets like HCP. In addition, TRX incorporates a specification for grouping streamlines, further simplifying tractometry analysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast Computational Algorithms for Partial Differential Equations and Uncertainty Quantifications

This project concerned the construction, testing and analysis of computational algorithms for solving parameterized and stochastic partial differential equations. The study and understanding of equations of this type is of fundamental importance in numerous engineering and scientific applications. Examples include simulation of plasma dynamics in models of electric propulsion and nuclear fusion, simulation of multiphase flows, such as the flow of water, gas and oil in reservoirs, and structural analysis of the dependence of structures on materials. Parametrization is used in such settings when properties of the models such as viscosity of fluids or electric resistivity of materials are not precisely understood and instead are treated as random variables. The resulting solutions are themselves random, and having such solutions will enable engineers to use probabilistic methods to assess the likelihood of events, for example, whether a pollutant in a liquid will exceed a limit, and to use such analyses to develop ways to ensure positive outcomes. Construction of accurate (high resolution) computational solutions is expensive, requiring significant computer time and computational resources, and there is need to reduce computational cost to make simulation useful and effective. The aim of the project was to construct algorithms to efficiently compute surrogate solutions to parameterized problems to allow for efficient and accurate simulation. The technical approach used focused on two related strategies, based on rank-reduction methods and reduced-order models. These methods construct surrogate solutions of parameter-dependent models by projection or interpolation into low-dimensional approximation spaces. Cost savings are achieved if the low-dimensional spaces can be identified and constructed efficiently and if the resulting low-dimensional algebraic systems can be solved cheaply. Accomplishments include: Theoretical and empirical demonstration of the effectiveness of fast multigrid solution strategies for computing low-rank representations of parameter-dependent solutions to discrete partial differential equations, including the first proof establishing so-called textbook convergence properties for low-rank methods. Development of efficient solution algorithms for solving nonlinear parameter-dependent partial differential equations used in models of fluid dynamics. Developent of efficient algorithms for low-rank representation of solutions of time-dependent simulations of fluid dynamics using multi-dimensional tensor representations of solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A resource adequacy assessment of correlated wide-area outages in the power grid

As the power grid is undergoing rapid transformations, numerous questions are emerging about its vulnerability to wide-area extreme events (WAEE), which could influence its operations. Relatively few analyses have been conducted to date regarding the impact of correlated outages during WAEEs on the grid’s ability to balance resources with demand. This study addresses this gap by conducting a resource adequacy analysis for a hurricane-inspired WAEE on a 2035 synthetic power grid system for the United States. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to characterize the relative impact of weather on unserved energy. Our results indicate that although the magnitude and duration of the shortfalls vary depending on weather conditions, persistent shortfalls are observed in some regions. Initial explorations indicate a strong correlation between transmission-constrained regions and regions with persistent shortfalls. Future work could generate empirically-grounded representations for generator outages as well as conduct causal analyses of these shortfalls to improve understanding of drivers as well as possible mitigation strategies. Continued exploration of extreme weather impacts on the grid is important to develop more robust understanding of the reliability and resilience of our power systems, especially as they undergo rapid transformations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Confronting the Challenge of Modeling Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics

In the atmosphere, microphysics refers to the microscale processes that affect cloud and precipitation particles and is a key linkage among the various components of Earth’s atmospheric water and energy cycles. The representation of microphysical processes in models continues to pose a major challenge leading to uncertainty in numerical weather forecasts and climate simulations. In this paper, the problem of treating microphysics in models is divided into two parts: i) how to represent the population of cloud and precipitation particles, given the impossibility of simulating all particles individually within a cloud, and ii) uncertainties in the microphysical process rates owing to fundamental gaps in knowledge of cloud physics. The recently-developed Lagrangian particle-based method is advocated as a way to address several conceptual and practical challenges of representing particle populations using traditional bulk and bin microphysics parameterization schemes. For addressing critical gaps in cloud physics knowledge, sustained investment for observational advances from laboratory experiments, new probe development, and next-generation instruments in space is needed. Greater emphasis on laboratory work, which has apparently declined over the past several decades relative to other areas of cloud physics research, is argued to be an essential ingredient for improving process-level understanding. More systematic use of natural cloud and precipitation observations to constrain microphysics schemes is also advocated. Because it is generally difficult to quantify individual microphysical process rates from these observations directly, this presents an inverse problem that can be viewed from the standpoint of Bayesian statistics. Following this idea, a probabilistic framework is proposed that combines elements from statistical and physical modeling. Besides providing rigorous constraint of schemes, there is an added benefit of quantifying uncertainty systematically. Finally, a broader hierarchical approach is proposed to accelerate improvements in microphysics schemes, leveraging the advances described in this paper related to process modeling (using Lagrangian particle-based schemes), laboratory experimentation, cloud and precipitation observations, and statistical methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

ComStock™ 2024 Release 1 [SWR-19-33 and SWR-20-32]

ComStock™ is an NREL model of the U.S. commercial building stock. The model takes some building characteristics from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Commercial Prototype Building Models and Commercial Reference Building. However, unlike many other building stock models, ComStock also combines these with a variety of additional public- and private-sector data sets. Collectively, this information provides high-fidelity building stock representation with a realistic diversity of building characteristics. This repository contains the source code used to build and execute ComStock models, including upgrade scenarios. In addition, the sampling of buildings characteristics used for the initial ComStock (V1.0) release is provided. The ComStock model is under active calibration and development, which is publicly visible on this repository. Execution of the ComStock workflow is managed through the buildstockbatch repository, a shared asset of ResStock™ and ComStock™ , specifically developed to scale to execution of tens of millions of simulations through multiple infrastructure providers. The dataset output from the initial ComStock (V1.0) release can be found at the accompanying ComStock data viewer website and additional information about ComStock found on the NREL Buildings Website. For more details about ongoing model development please consult the End Use Load Profiles website. ComStock is a direct result of the NREL residential stock modeling tool ResStock™ (recipient of a R&D100 award) and was inspired by the high-fidelity solar & storage adoption model dGen™. Additionally, this tool would not be possible without the decades of work undertaken by the OpenStudio® and EnergyPlus® visionaries and contributors, significant funding, feedback and support from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, and the Department of Energy's Building Technology Office ongoing support of and investment in building energy modeling software. is an analytic methodology for modeling the energy usage of the commercial building stock within the United States of America. The commercial building stock is represented through a sampling of complex probabilistic distributions of various features of interest for modeling energy usage within commercial buildings. Each sample from these distributions is converted into a building energy model based on the features of that specific sample. Each building energy model can be simulated as is, but additional changes can be made to the model through addition of energy conservation measures, component faults, or other desired alterations. The results of the simulations are then processed to provide insights for various stakeholders, including but not limited to policy makers, engineers, and marketers.

Horsey, Henry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exact block encoding of imaginary time evolution with universal quantum neural networks

We develop a constructive approach to generate quantum neural networks capable of representing the exact thermal states of all many-body qubit Hamiltonians. The Trotter expansion of the imaginary time propagator is implemented through an exact block encoding by means of a unitary, restricted Boltzmann machine architecture. Marginalization over the hidden-layer neurons (auxiliary qubits) creates the nonunitary action on the visible layer. Then, we introduce a unitary deep Boltzmann machine architecture in which the hidden-layer qubits are allowed to couple laterally to other hidden qubits. We prove that this wave-function is closed under the action of the imaginary time propagator and, more generally, can represent the action of a universal set of quantum gate operations. We provide analytic expressions for the coefficients for both architectures, thus enabling exact network representations of thermal states without stochastic optimization of the network parameters. In the limit of large imaginary time, the yields the ground state of the system. The number of qubits grows linearly with the number of interactions and total imaginary time for a fixed interaction order. Both networks can be readily implemented on quantum hardware via midcircuit measurements of auxiliary qubits. If only one auxiliary qubit is measured and reset, the circuit depth scales linearly with imaginary time and number of interactions, while the width is constant. Alternatively, one can employ a number of auxiliary qubits linearly proportional to the number of interactions, and circuit depth grows linearly with imaginary time only. Every midcircuit measurement has a postselection success probability, and the overall success probability is equal to the product of the probabilities of the midcircuit measurements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multidimensional Distributional Neural Network Output Demonstrated in Super‐Resolution of Surface Wind Speed

Accurate quantification of uncertainty in neural network predictions remains a central challenge for scientific applications involving high-dimensional, correlated data. While existing methods capture either aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty, few offer closed-form, multidimensional distributions that preserve spatial correlation while remaining computationally tractable. In this work, we present a framework for training neural networks with a multidimensional Gaussian loss, generating a closed-form predictive distribution over outputs informed by non-identically distributed training data. Our approach captures aleatoric uncertainty by iteratively estimating the means and covariance matrices, and is demonstrated on a super-resolution example out-of-training-sample. We leverage a Fourier representation of the covariance matrix to stabilize network training and preserve spatial correlation. We introduce a novel regularization strategy—referred to as information sharing—that interpolates between image-specific and global covariance estimates, enabling convergence of the super-resolution downscaling network trained on image-specific distributional loss functions. This framework allows for efficient sampling, explicit correlation modeling, and extensions to more complex distribution families all without disrupting prediction performance. We demonstrate the method on a surface wind speed downscaling task and discuss its broader applicability to uncertainty-aware prediction in scientific models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series: Supporting Data

This dataset consists of soil temperature time series that were used to estimate soil thermal diffusivity and its uncertainty trough the probabilistic modelling approach developed and presented in the article named "Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series" and published in Earth Surface Dynamics. There are two compressed (.zip) files that contains synthetic (Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip) and field (Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip) data. There is one MATLAB file that requires MATLAB to execute but any text editor can open it. The Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip file includes 5 comma-delimited data files (.csv) each of which contains soil temperature time series generated through forward modeling (i.e., heat-conduction process in a heterogeneous medium using an explicit finite difference method) to mimic various types of temperature gradients, trend and fluctuations. These synthetic soil temperatures were used to investigate the impact of different environmental conditions on the uncertainty of thermal diffusivity estimates. The Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip file contains 28 comma-delimited data files (.csv) out of which (a) 27 files includes soil temperature time series recorded from 27 temperature probes located in a site along Teller Road about 40 km northwest of Nome, Alaska (64.72°N, 165.94°W), (b) one includes the name and coordinates of the 27 probes. These field soil temperatures were used to infer soil thermal diffusivity at numerous locations and depths in a discontinuous permafrost environment, and to evaluate the links between the estimated soil thermal diffusivity values and soil physical properties. The comma-delimited data files (.csv) of the synthetic and field soil temperature time series includes date and time (UTC) in the first column and soil temperature from 5 cm below the ground surface to 1.05 m depth (with 5 or 10 cm spacing between sensors) in the other columns. The measurements were acquired every 15 minutes. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗