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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Further adoption of conservation tillage can increase maize yields in the western US Corn Belt

Conservation tillage can reduce soil erosion, increase soil health, and decrease labor and fuel input costs. Despite these benefits, potential yield impacts remain an important concern for farmers considering adoption. Previous research suggests that conservation tillage is likely to have the largest yield benefits in more arid conditions, but a lack of field-level analyses across climatic, management and soil conditions limits confidence in such predictions. Satellite imagery provides the opportunity to monitor agricultural lands at sub-field resolution across large spatial scales and wide environmental gradients. Here we investigate the maize yield impacts of conservation tillage in the semi-arid western US Corn Belt, using sub-field resolution datasets on tillage practices and crop yields derived from satellite data spanning four states (Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, and North Dakota) between 2008 and 2020. On these datasets, we estimate heterogenous yield outcomes for several thousand maize fields across gradients in climate, soil quality and irrigation status by using a causal forests analysis, an adaptation of the random forests machine-learning algorithm for causal inference on observational data. We find that long-term adoption of conservation tillage increased rainfed maize yields by an average of 9.9% in the region. Impacts on irrigated yields were small and not statistically significant. These results, along with an analysis of variables related to greater than average yield benefits, indicate that improved water infiltration and retention are the primary reasons for conservation tillage benefits. Despite yield benefits, many fields estimated to see increased yields under long term low till have not adopted the practice. Therefore, we identify specific counties likely to benefit most from increased levels of adoption. Our results strengthen the understanding of the impacts of conservation agriculture on crop yields and help define environments and counties most likely to benefit from conservation tillage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Protection System Validation with Machine Learning Anomaly Classification

A poster for the Early Career Poster Session. Power system protection devices have transitioned over the past few decades from mechanical to analog devices, then to solid state and finally digital. Relays and their associated critical network of equipment have significantly increased in complexity. Even internally, relays have gained significant intricacy, with relatively simple overcurrent or differential functions now being assisted by a myriad of other functions. This is necessary as the grid becomes more complex, but it brings increased difficulty in monitoring and upkeep. Misoperation caused by improper relay settings or malicious actions is a constant challenge faced by all utilities. These improper settings can be difficult to identify and may require exhaustive post-mortem analysis, typically after a major outage event has already occurred. A mechanism is needed for monitoring the behavior of protection systems to validate that they act and perform as expected. This work presents a concept for a machine learning (ML) system capable of validating the performance of protection systems by classifying anomalous events and characterizing protection system responses based solely on available current and voltage measurements. As a first step in its development, an experimental dataset is generated, and a random forest model is implemented with high accuracy in distinguishing four power system scenarios.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vehicle Position Detection Based on Machine Learning Algorithms in Dynamic Wireless Charging

Dynamic wireless charging (DWC) has emerged as a viable approach to mitigate range anxiety by ensuring continuous and uninterrupted charging for electric vehicles in motion. DWC systems rely on the length of the transmitter, which can be categorized into long-track transmitters and segmented coil arrays. The segmented coil array, favored for its heightened efficiency and reduced electromagnetic interference, stands out as the preferred option. However, in such DWC systems, the need arises to detect the vehicle’s position, specifically to activate the transmitter coils aligned with the receiver pad and de-energize uncoupled transmitter coils. This paper introduces various machine learning algorithms for precise vehicle position determination, accommodating diverse ground clearances of electric vehicles and various speeds. Through testing eight different machine learning algorithms and comparing the results, the random forest algorithm emerged as superior, displaying the lowest error in predicting the actual position.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Post-Event Fault Identification with Machine Learning for Protection System Validation

Power system protection devices have transitioned over the past few decades from mechanical to analog devices, then to solid state and finally digital. Relays and their associated critical network of equipment have significantly increased in complexity. Even internally, relays have gained significant intricacy, with relatively simple overcurrent or differential functions now being assisted by a myriad of other functions. This is necessary as the grid becomes more complex, but it brings increased difficulty in monitoring and upkeep. Misoperation caused by accidental improper relay settings or deliberate malicious actions is a constant challenge faced by all utilities. These improper settings can be difficult to identify and may require exhaustive post-mortem analysis, typically after a major outage event has already occurred. A mechanism is needed for monitoring the behavior of protection systems to validate that their performance falls within expectations. Relays that fail to isolate a fault or trip when there is no system disturbance can be flagged for settings review in situations where this behavior may not have been noticed due to manual restoration or backup protection operations. This work presents a concept for a machine learning (ML) system capable of validating the performance of protection systems by identifying fault events and characterizing protection system responses based solely on available current and voltage measurements. As a first step in its development, an experimental dataset is generated, and a random forest model is implemented with high accuracy in distinguishing four power system scenarios.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Protection System Validation Using Post-Event Anomaly Classification with Machine Learning

Power system protection devices have transitioned over the past few decades from mechanical to analog devices, then to solid state and finally digital. Relays and their associated critical network of equipment have significantly increased in complexity. Even internally, relays have gained significant intricacy, with relatively simple overcurrent or differential functions now being assisted by a myriad of other functions. This is necessary as the grid becomes more complex, but it brings increased difficulty in monitoring and upkeep. Misoperation caused by improper relay settings or malicious actions is a constant challenge faced by all utilities. These improper settings can be difficult to identify and may require exhaustive post-mortem analysis, typically after a major outage event has already occurred. A mechanism is needed for monitoring the behavior of protection systems to validate that they act and perform as expected. This work presents a concept for a machine learning (ML) system capable of validating the performance of protection systems by classifying anomalous events and characterizing protection system responses based solely on available current and voltage measurements. As a first step in its development, an experimental dataset is generated, and a random forest model is implemented with high accuracy in distinguishing four power system scenarios.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive Modeling of NOx Emissions from Lean Direct Injection of Hydrogen and Hydrogen/Natural Gas Blends Using Flame Imaging and Machine Learning

This research paper explores the use of machine learning to relate images of flame structure and luminosity to measured NOx emissions. Images of reactions produced by 16 aero-engine derived injectors for a ground-based turbine operated on a range of fuel compositions, air pressure drops, preheat temperatures and adiabatic flame temperatures were captured and postprocessed. The experimental investigations were conducted under atmospheric conditions, capturing CO, NO and NOx emissions data and OH* chemiluminescence images from 27 test conditions. The injector geometry and test conditions were based on a statistically designed test plan. These results were first analyzed using the traditional analysis approach of analysis of variance (ANOVA). The statistically based test plan yielded 432 data points, leading to a correlation for NOx emissions as a function of injector geometry, test conditions and imaging responses, with 70.2% accuracy. As an alternative approach to predicting emissions using imaging diagnostics as well as injector geometry and test conditions, a random forest machine learning algorithm was also applied to the data and was able to achieve an accuracy of 82.6%. This study offers insights into the factors influencing emissions in ground-based turbines while emphasizing the potential of machine learning algorithms in constructing predictive models for complex systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Addressing bias in bagging and boosting regression models

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes widespread, there is increasing attention on investigating bias in machine learning (ML) models. Previous research concentrated on classification problems, with little emphasis on regression models. This paper presents an easy-to-apply and effective methodology for mitigating bias in bagging and boosting regression models, that is also applicable to any model trained through minimizing a differentiable loss function. Our methodology measures bias rigorously and extends the ML model's loss function with a regularization term to penalize high correlations between model errors and protected attributes. We applied our approach to three popular tree-based ensemble models: a random forest model (RF), a gradient-boosted model (GBT), and an extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost). We implemented our methodology on a case study for predicting road-level traffic volume, where RF, GBT, and XGBoost models were shown to have high accuracy. Despite high accuracy, the ML models were shown to perform poorly on roads in minority-populated areas. Our bias mitigation approach reduced minority-related bias by over 50%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identification of mechanisms driving heterogeneous void growth in ductile aluminum

Void growth plays a central role in ductile fracture, yet the specific mechanisms that control this remain obscure. Classical models, such as those proposed by Rice and Tracey in 1969, are able to capture average rates of void growth, but cannot capture the heterogeneity of individual void growth. Building on recent work, the present study employs laboratory-based diffraction contrast tomography and in-situ x-ray computed tomography to investigate the effect of grain structure and other microstructural factors on void growth in an Al-2219 alloy. Crystal plasticity finite element (CP-FE) modeling is used alongside experimental data to evaluate the contributions of local mechanical states, grain orientation, grain size, and neighboring microstructural features. No strong linear relationships are found with any of the considered descriptors and void growth rate. Potential complex nonlinear relationships are explored with the use of a random forest regression model, which identifies initial void volume, void aspect ratio, local normal stress state, local shear stress state, and local equivalent plastic strain (EQPS) as features that most improve void growth rate predictions. The combination of these analyses suggests that these features should be prioritized to improve models of void growth.

Diffraction contrast tomography (DCT)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of spatial variability in vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, biodiversity, topography, and soil property on soil respiration across a coastal ecosystem

Coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs) are crucial contributors to global biogeochemical cycles and carbon exchange. A systematic evaluation of the interaction between coastal catchment properties and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission by soil respiration is significant for assessing carbon dynamics and predicting the future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in coastal TAIs. The soil CO2 efflux in these transition zones is however poorly understood due to the high spatiotemporal dynamics of TAIs, as various sub-ecosystems in this region are compressed and expanded by complex influences of tides, changes in river levels, climate, and land use. We focus on the Chesapeake Bay region to (i) investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the coastal ecosystem and identify spatial zones with similar environmental characteristics based on the spatial data layers, including vegetation index (kNDVI), climate, landcover, diversity, topography, soil property, and relative tidal elevation; (ii) understand the primary driving factors affecting soil respiration within sub-ecosystems of the coastal ecosystem. Specifically, we employed hierarchical clustering analysis to identify spatial regions with distinct environmental characteristics, followed by the determination of main driving factors using Random Forest regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations. Maximum and minimum temperature are the main drivers common to all sub-ecosystems, while each region also has additional unique major drivers that differentiate them from one another. Precipitation exerts an influence on vegetated lands, while soil pH value holds importance specifically in forested lands. In croplands characterized by high clay content and low sand content, the significant role is attributed to bulk density. Wetlands demonstrate the importance of both elevation and sand content, with clay content being more relevant in non-inundated wetlands than in inundated wetlands. The topographic wetness index significantly contributes to the mixed vegetation areas, including shrub, grass, pasture, and forest. Additionally, our research reveals that dense vegetation land covers and urban/developed areas exhibit distinct soil property drivers. Overall, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to modeling carbon fluxes in coastal TAIs, and our study highlights the importance of further research and monitoring practices to improve our understanding of carbon dynamics and promote the sustainable management of coastal TAIs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chatter detection in simulated machining data: a simple refined approach to vibration data

Vibration monitoring is a critical aspect of assessing the health and performance of machinery and industrial processes. This study explores the application of machine learning techniques, specifically the Random Forest (RF) classification model, to predict and classify chatter—a detrimental self-excited vibration phenomenon—during machining operations. While sophisticated methods have been employed to address chatter, this research investigates the efficacy of a novel approach to an RF model. The study leverages simulated vibration data, bypassing resource-intensive real-world data collection, to develop a versatile chatter detection model applicable across diverse machining configurations. The feature extraction process combines time-series features and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) data features, streamlining the model while addressing challenges posed by feature selection. By focusing on the RF model’s simplicity and efficiency, this research advances chatter detection techniques, offering a practical tool with improved generalizability, computational efficiency, and ease of interpretation. The study demonstrates that innovation can reside in simplicity, opening avenues for wider applicability and accelerated progress in the machining industry.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

What regulates decomposition in agroecosystems? Insights from reading the tea leaves

Litter decomposition is a critical Earth process, recycling nutrients and setting a portion of plant tissue on a path toward soil organic matter. Despite this importance, we still lack a good understanding of local factors that regulate decomposition, especially in agroecosystems where management plays an outsized role. Using a narrow range of climate and soils, we buried 1,308 pre-manufactured “litter bags” of differing residue quality (i.e., green and rooibos tea leaves) in 109 plots across several management practices to (1) explore the local controls on decomposition in agroecosystems and (2) test the robustness of the Tea Bag Index (TBI). We found that management practices intended to increase soil ecosystem services, that is, soil health, altered the decomposition of both teas. For example, adding nitrogen fertilizer and implementing perennial cropping decreased the extent of green tea decomposition (carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, or C:N = 12.8). No-tillage increased, but perennial cropping decreased, the rate of rooibos tea decomposition (C:N = 50.1). Cropped prairie accelerated green tea decomposition and increased the extent of red tea decomposition. A random forest regression model showed that soil temperature was the strongest predictor of green tea decomposition, but a soil health score also played a significant role in predicting the mass remaining. Soil texture and nutrient availability best predicted rooibos tea decomposition. Finer textured soils seemed to decelerate rooibos decomposition but increased the extent of decomposition. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the TBI metrics correlated somewhat well with empirically derived decomposition constants and were similarly sensitive to the effects of management. Still, the green tea stabilization factor had a substantial prediction bias. Our study increased our basic understanding of what regulates decomposition in agroecosystems. It also showed that the TBI can be a scientifically rigorous citizen science approach to monitoring changes in soil health.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Fine-Resolution Shortwave Broadband Albedo of Croplands from Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 Data

Altered surface albedo due to land-cover conversions and management is a significant driver of global climate change. Albedo can be directly measured at ground stations, and remote sensing data can be used to scale-up albedo values to regional and global levels. Some previous studies have retrieved fine-resolution (10–30 m) instantaneous albedo and coarse-resolution (500–1000 m) daily mean albedo from remote sensing data, but they all required the input of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo information at 500-m resolution, and none have assembled both instantaneous and daily albedo based exclusively on fine-resolution satellite data. Here, to address this issue, we compiled 387 instantaneous and 346 daily albedo records using field net radiometer measurements from the bioenergy croplands at the W. K. Kellogg Biological Station in southwest Michigan. We then connected these albedo records with a suite of variables derived from harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 data through two machine learning algorithms (random forest regression and extreme gradient boosting) to retrieve clear-sky instantaneous and daily shortwave broadband albedo. The performance statistics indicate reasonable accuracy of model results [root-mean-square error (RMSE)] around or below 0.03 except for snow-covered surfaces), suggesting that the retrieval of both instantaneous and daily albedo based exclusively on fine-resolution satellite data is promising. To facilitate the use of fine-resolution albedo products at the global level, future efforts need to include more albedo records of diverse surface cover types, as well as to accurately model daily albedo for cloudy days to address the “clear-sky bias.”

Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Practical Comparison of Data-Driven Prognostics Methods for Energy Systems

This study explores data-driven prognostics for nuclear power plant (NPP) condensers, focusing on tube fouling. We utilized the Asherah nuclear power plant simulator (ANS) to compare four methods: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM). By simulating various fouling scenarios in the ANS, we generated data with different degradation rates under transient operations. The models were trained and tested on these data, with performance evaluated visually and numerically including uncertainty assessment. The LSTM model excelled, exhibiting minimal prediction noise and the most accurate remaining useful life estimates across all degradation levels. Its ability to capture long-term dependencies and produce cleaner outputs makes it a strong candidate, although accurate training data across the entire component lifespan are crucial. The RF model emerged as a robust alternative, providing reliable predictions with high confidence. The FCNN and SVR models, while less effective overall, showed potential under specific conditions. FCNN offers a less complex alternative to LSTM and might benefit from larger datasets. SVR excels in precision when the quality of the training data is high. Furthermore, this study highlights the operational benefits of advanced prognostics in the energy sector and emphasizes the need for further research in NPP condenser health management through real-life experiments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial intelligence driven laser parameter search: Inverse design of photonic surfaces using greedy surrogate-based optimization

Photonic surfaces designed with specific optical characteristics are becoming increasingly crucial for novel energy harvesting and storage systems. The design of these surfaces can be achieved by texturing materials using lasers. The optimal adjustment of laser fabrication parameters to achieve target surface optical properties is an open challenge. Thus, we develop a surrogate-based optimization approach. Our framework employs the Random Forest algorithm to model the forward relationship between the laser fabrication parameters and the resulting optical characteristics. During the optimization process, we use a greedy, prediction-based exploration strategy that iteratively selects batches of laser parameters to be used in experimentation by minimizing the predicted discrepancy between the surrogate model’s outputs and the user-defined target optical characteristics. This strategy allows for efficient identification of optimal fabrication parameters without the need to model the error landscape directly. We demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our approach on two synthetic benchmarks and two specific experimental applications of photonic surface inverse design targets. By calculating the average performance of our algorithm compared to other state of the art optimization methods, we show that our algorithm performs, on average, twice as well across all benchmarks. Additionally, a warm starting inverse design technique for changed target optical characteristics enhances the performance of the introduced approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning enables identification of an alternative yeast galactose utilization pathway

How genomic differences contribute to phenotypic differences is a major question in biology. The recently characterized genomes, isolation environments, and qualitative patterns of growth on 122 sources and conditions of 1,154 strains from 1,049 fungal species (nearly all known) in the yeast subphylum Saccharomycotina provide a powerful, yet complex, dataset for addressing this question. We used a random forest algorithm trained on these genomic, metabolic, and environmental data to predict growth on several carbon sources with high accuracy. Known structural genes involved in assimilation of these sources and presence/absence patterns of growth in other sources were important features contributing to prediction accuracy. By further examining growth on galactose, we found that it can be predicted with high accuracy from either genomic (92.2%) or growth data (82.6%) but not from isolation environment data (65.6%). Prediction accuracy was even higher (93.3%) when we combined genomic and growth data. After the GALactose utilization genes, the most important feature for predicting growth on galactose was growth on galactitol, raising the hypothesis that several species in two orders, Serinales and Pichiales (containing the emerging pathogen Candida auris and the genus Ogataea, respectively), have an alternative galactose utilization pathway because they lack the GAL genes. Growth and biochemical assays confirmed that several of these species utilize galactose through an alternative oxidoreductive D-galactose pathway, rather than the canonical GAL pathway. Machine learning approaches are powerful for investigating the evolution of the yeast genotype–phenotype map, and their application will uncover novel biology, even in well-studied traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Machine Learning Approach to Quantitative Analysis of Enamel Microstructure from Scanning Electron Microscopy Images

Dental enamel, the outermost tissue of mammalian teeth, must withstand a lifetime of wear and cyclic contact. To meet this demand, enamel possesses a combination of high hardness and resistance to fracture, properties that are typically mutually exclusive. The impressive damage tolerance has been attributed largely to decussation of the enamel rods, the principal unit of its microstructure. As such, enamel is inspiring the design of next‐generation structural materials. However, quantitative descriptions of the decussated enamel rod microstructure remain limited due to challenges encountered in applying computed tomography and in acquiring quality images appropriate for traditional digital processing methods. Here, a machine learning segmentation method is applied to images of the enamel obtained using scanning electron microscopy to support quantitative analysis of the microstructure. A pretrained convolutional neural network is used to expand the input training image dataset to allow the training of a random forest classifier, which ultimately segments the image with a very small training set ( n = 3 images). A validation of this segmentation method is presented, in addition to its application to calculate relevant microstructural parameters for images of tooth enamel from selected mammalian species. The methodology applied here is equally applicable to other hard tissues.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Employing Machine Learning for New Particle Formation Identification and Mechanistic Analysis: Insights From a Six‐Year Observational Study in the Southern Great Plains

We present a supervised machine learning (ML) framework to automatically identify new particle formation (NPF) events and analyze key atmospheric factors associated with their occurrence and growth. We applied ML to detect NPF events using start time and particle concentrations across size ranges, while identifying atmospheric variables including ambient temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation intensity (SRI), wind speed, wind direction, boundary layer height, total organics, sulfate, nitrate, total surface area concentration, sulfur dioxide, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). We analyzed a 6-year data set from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, USA. Using long-term ground-based measurements, we identified NPF events and applied Random Forest Classifiers, which achieved 90%–95% prediction accuracy. Feature importance analysis highlighted SRI, relative humidity, and ambient temperature as the most influential variables, contributing normalized importances of 28%, 17%, and 10%. Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) indicated that higher SRI and lower relative humidity were critical in promoting NPF formation at SGP. Seasonally, NPF events were more frequent in winter (42.1%) and spring (35.5%), and least in summer (4.0%). Particle growth rates also exhibited a seasonal variation, with the lowest in winter (below 2 nm hr −1 ) and highest in late spring and early summer (exceeding 5 nm hr −1 ). Temperature, turbulent kinetic energy, and aerosol properties were the primary factors of growth rate variability. This study advances predictive modeling of NPF, offers insights for future campaign deployments, and demonstrates the effectiveness of ML in understanding the formation and growth of atmospheric aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗