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At least 73 records · Page 4

Sensitivity of an atmospheric photochemistry model to chlorine perturbations including consideration of uncertainty propagation

Models of stratospheric photochemistry are generally tested by comparing their predictions for the composition of the present atmosphere with measurements of species concentrations. These models are then used to make predictions of the atmospheric sensitivity to perturbations. Here the problem of the sensitivity of such a model to chlorine perturbations ranging from the present influx of chlorine-containing compounds to several times that influx is addressed. The effects of uncertainties in input parameters, including reaction rate coefficients, cross sections, solar fluxes, and boundary conditions, are evaluated using a Monte Carlo method in which the values of the input parameters are randomly selected. The results are probability distributions for present atmosheric concentrations and for calculated perturbations due to chlorine from fluorocarbons. For more than 300 Monte Carlo runs the calculated ozone perturbation for continued emission of fluorocarbons at today's rates had a mean value of -6.2 percent, with a 1-sigma width of 5.5 percent. Using the same runs but only allowing the cases in which the calculated present atmosphere values of NO, NO2, and ClO at 25 km altitude fell within the range of measurements yielded a mean ozone depletion of -3 percent, with a 1-sigma deviation of 2.2 percent. The model showed a nonlinear behavior as a function of added fluorocarbons. The mean of the Monte Carlo runs was less nonlinear than the model run using mean value of the input parameters.

Stolarski, R. S.

Shared Use Travel Behavior for Improving Rural Mobility: Insights from Greene County, Pennsylvania

Rural communities are considered disadvantaged communities as they suffer from a lack of transport options. Thus, rural regionsprovide less accessibility for commuters to reach their destination as opposed to urban regions. However, the issues of transport disadvantageand shared use mobility in rural areas within the United States (US) have not been well investigated. Furthermore, transport disadvantagediffers between communities and regions across the globe; thus, there is a need to study the behavioral choices of rural commuters within theUS context. This study contributes by analyzing the behavioral choices of rural communities within the US through a case study site ofWaynesburg, Pennsylvania, for adopting a shared use shuttle service. K-means clusters showed that trips from the survey data were a goodrepresentation of real trips from Ecolane. Furthermore, random parameter-based binary logit models were calibrated using data collected fromstudents, faculty, and residents in Waynesburg, Greene County, to study the behavioral choices of commuters. The findings for the faculty andstudents group revealed that prior experience with shared services increases the likelihood of using a shared shuttle. An important personalcharacteristic of inconvenience showed a higher propensity toward using existing modes as opposed to a shared shuttle. Such commutersvalue personal vehicles as more convenient as they have childcare responsibilities and varying schedules for work that require them to moveback and forth across locations, thus making a shared shuttle less attractive for them. The socioeconomic factors of age and gender show ahigher propensity for using shared shuttles. Furthermore, the findings from this study could be helpful for agencies in improving rural mobility andconsidering such shared mobility services for rural communities

42 ENGINEERING

Adaptive stochastic control for a class of linear systems.

The problem considered in this paper deals with the control of linear discrete-time stochastic systems with unknown (possibly time-varying and random) gain parameters. The philosophy of control is based on the use of an open-loop feedback optimal (OLFO) control using a quadratic index of performance. It is shown that the OLFO system consists of (1) an identifier that estimates the system state variables and gain parameters and (2) a controller described by an 'adaptive' gain and correction term. Several qualitative properties and asymptotic properties of the OLFO adaptive system are discussed. Simulation results dealing with the control of stable and unstable third-order plants are presented. The key quantitative result is the precise variation of the control system adaptive gains as a function of the future expected uncertainty of the parameters; thus, in this problem the ordinary 'separation theorem' does not hold.

Tse, E.

Eigenvalue uncertainty in stressed structures.

A method is presented for calculating the statistics of the natural frequencies and mode shapes of vibration for a structure acted upon by an external static loading which results in the structure being stressed for eigenvalue analysis. The analytical tools presented apply to the probabilistic eigenvalue problem, and it is apparent that structural parameter uncertainty will significantly influence all aspects of the structure's response. The treatment of a sample problem serves the purpose of furthering understanding for the importance of considering structural parameters as random variables.

Hart, G. C.

Acoustic and vibration environments for laboratory experiments in space

The basic parameters of random noise and vibration are described, and typical environments for the launch phase and orbital operations are presented. For the latter, both acoustically induced and structure-borne, thruster-included vibration are addressed, using data obtained during the Skylab and Titan programs.

Rader, W. P.

Procedure for generating ground wind environments for Shuttle liftoff studies

Ground-wind environments for Monte Carlo simulations of Space Shuttle liftoff at KSC are developed. Input parameters include randomly selected 18.3-m-altitude peak wind speed (from which mean wind profile and turbulence intensity are calculated), randomly selected mean wind direction, and longitudinal and lateral turbulence components obtained from the Shuttle-simulation turbulence tapes (SSTT: Tatom et al., 1982). The steps in the simulation of turbulence time histories and horizontal wind fields are listed. It is found that separate statistical analysis of each hour-season pair, applying data on the time fraction of occurrence of peak winds and wind directions at KSC, will be necessary to interpret simulation results consistently.

Fichtl, G. H.

Simplified Worst-Case Analysis of Complex Systems

Statistical method avoids excessive computer time. Technique involves simplified Monte Carlo simulation of system with randomly chosen parameters and comparison of tolerance extremes of several of worst-case situations found. Resulting combination of tolerance extremes then used in detailed analysis - one that makes use of full complex nonlinear model capable of accurate simulations.

Pond, C. L.

SARSAT 406 MHz system technical evaluation

The location accuracy, access to spacecraft, uplink margin, and interference problems of the COSPAS-SARSAT system are reviewed. Over 90% of positions are accurate to within 5 km, in local mode, slightly worse in global mode. The random access parameters of SARSAT provide for the location of up to 90 beacons with a uniform distribution in the satellite visibility circle (2600 km radius). The ratio of messages correctly processed on board to messages transmitted to the satellite is 0.8, increasing as number of beacons decreases. Interference, particularly over western Europe and the United States degrades performance, but sources can be located.

Goudy, P.

Discrete-time Markovian-jump linear quadratic optimal control

This paper is concerned with the optimal control of discrete-time linear systems that possess randomly jumping parameters described by finite-state Markov processes. For problems having quadratic costs and perfect observations, the optimal control laws and expected costs-to-go can be precomputed from a set of coupled Riccati-like matrix difference equations. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the existence of optimal constant control laws which stabilize the controlled system as the time horizon becomes infinite, with finite optimal expected cost.

Chizeck, H. J.

Random loading fatigue crack growth: Crack closure considerations

The prediction of fatigue crack growth is an important element of effective fracture control for metallic structures and mechanical components, especially in the aerospace industry. The prediction techniques available and applied today are mostly based on fatigue crack growth measurements determined in constant amplitude testing. However, while many service loadings are constant amplitude, many more loadings are random amplitude. An investigation to determine which statistics of random loadings are relevant to fatigue crack closure was conducted. The fundamentals of random processes and crack closure are briefly reviewed, then the relevance of certain random process parameters to the crack closure calculation are discussed qualitatively. A course for further research is outlined.

Ortiz, Keith

Stochastic stability properties of jump linear systems

Jump linear systems are defined as a family of linear systems with randomly jumping parameters (usually governed by a Markov jump process) and are used to model systems subject to failures or changes in structure. The authors study stochastic stability properties in jump linear systems and the relationship among various moment and sample path stability properties. It is shown that all second moment stability properties are equivalent and are sufficient for almost sure sample path stability, and a testable necessary and sufficient condition for second moment stability is derived. The Lyapunov exponent method for the study of almost sure sample stability is discussed, and a theorem which characterizes the Lyapunov exponents of jump linear systems is presented.

Feng, Xiangbo

Combined Uncertainty and A-Posteriori Error Bound Estimates for General CFD Calculations: Theory and Software Implementation

This workshop presentation discusses the design and implementation of numerical methods for the quantification of statistical uncertainty, including a-posteriori error bounds, for output quantities computed using CFD methods. Hydrodynamic realizations often contain numerical error arising from finite-dimensional approximation (e.g. numerical methods using grids, basis functions, particles) and statistical uncertainty arising from incomplete information and/or statistical characterization of model parameters and random fields. The first task at hand is to derive formal error bounds for statistics given realizations containing finite-dimensional numerical error [1]. The error in computed output statistics contains contributions from both realization error and the error resulting from the calculation of statistics integrals using a numerical method. A second task is to devise computable a-posteriori error bounds by numerically approximating all terms arising in the error bound estimates. For the same reason that CFD calculations including error bounds but omitting uncertainty modeling are only of limited value, CFD calculations including uncertainty modeling but omitting error bounds are only of limited value. To gain maximum value from CFD calculations, a general software package for uncertainty quantification with quantified error bounds has been developed at NASA. The package provides implementations for a suite of numerical methods used in uncertainty quantification: Dense tensorization basis methods [3] and a subscale recovery variant [1] for non-smooth data, Sparse tensorization methods[2] utilizing node-nested hierarchies, Sampling methods[4] for high-dimensional random variable spaces.

CFD

A system identification technique based on the random decrement signatures. Part 2: Experimental results

Identification of the system parameters of a randomly excited structure may be treated using a variety of statistical techniques. Of all these techniques, the Random Decrement is unique in that it provides the homogeneous component of the system response. Using this quality, a system identification technique was developed based on a least-squares fit of the signatures to estimate the mass, damping, and stiffness matrices of a linear randomly excited system. The results of an experiment conducted on an offshore platform scale model to verify the validity of the technique and to demonstrate its application in damage detection are presented.

Bedewi, Nabih E.

Recursive Branching Simulated Annealing Algorithm

This innovation is a variation of a simulated-annealing optimization algorithm that uses a recursive-branching structure to parallelize the search of a parameter space for the globally optimal solution to an objective. The algorithm has been demonstrated to be more effective at searching a parameter space than traditional simulated-annealing methods for a particular problem of interest, and it can readily be applied to a wide variety of optimization problems, including those with a parameter space having both discrete-value parameters (combinatorial) and continuous-variable parameters. It can take the place of a conventional simulated- annealing, Monte-Carlo, or random- walk algorithm. In a conventional simulated-annealing (SA) algorithm, a starting configuration is randomly selected within the parameter space. The algorithm randomly selects another configuration from the parameter space and evaluates the objective function for that configuration. If the objective function value is better than the previous value, the new configuration is adopted as the new point of interest in the parameter space. If the objective function value is worse than the previous value, the new configuration may be adopted, with a probability determined by a temperature parameter, used in analogy to annealing in metals. As the optimization continues, the region of the parameter space from which new configurations can be selected shrinks, and in conjunction with lowering the annealing temperature (and thus lowering the probability for adopting configurations in parameter space with worse objective functions), the algorithm can converge on the globally optimal configuration. The Recursive Branching Simulated Annealing (RBSA) algorithm shares some features with the SA algorithm, notably including the basic principles that a starting configuration is randomly selected from within the parameter space, the algorithm tests other configurations with the goal of finding the globally optimal solution, and the region from which new configurations can be selected shrinks as the search continues. The key difference between these algorithms is that in the SA algorithm, a single path, or trajectory, is taken in parameter space, from the starting point to the globally optimal solution, while in the RBSA algorithm, many trajectories are taken; by exploring multiple regions of the parameter space simultaneously, the algorithm has been shown to converge on the globally optimal solution about an order of magnitude faster than when using conventional algorithms. Novel features of the RBSA algorithm include: 1. More efficient searching of the parameter space due to the branching structure, in which multiple random configurations are generated and multiple promising regions of the parameter space are explored; 2. The implementation of a trust region for each parameter in the parameter space, which provides a natural way of enforcing upper- and lower-bound constraints on the parameters; and 3. The optional use of a constrained gradient- search optimization, performed on the continuous variables around each branch s configuration in parameter space to improve search efficiency by allowing for fast fine-tuning of the continuous variables within the trust region at that configuration point.

Bolcar, Matthew

A design method for minimizing sensitivity to plant parameter variations

A method is described for minimizing the sensitivity of multivariable systems to parameter variations. The variable parameters are considered as random variables and their effect is included in a quadratic performance index. The performance index is a weighted sum of the state and control covariances that stem from both the random system disturbances and the parameter uncertainties. The numerical solution of the problem is described and application of the method to several initially sensitive tracking systems is discussed. The sensitivity factor of reduction was typically 2 or 3 over a system based on random system noise only, and yet resulted in state RMS increases of only about a factor of two.

Hadass, Z.

A system identification technique based on the random decrement signatures. Part 1: Theory and simulation

Identification of the system parameters of a randomly excited structure may be treated using a variety of statistical techniques. Of all these techniques, the Random Decrement is unique in that it provides the homogeneous component of the system response. Using this quality, a system identification technique was developed based on a least-squares fit of the signatures to estimate the mass, damping, and stiffness matrices of a linear randomly excited system. The mathematics of the technique is presented in addition to the results of computer simulations conducted to demonstrate the prediction of the response of the system and the random forcing function initially introduced to excite the system.

Bedewi, Nabih E.

Response of linear dynamic systems with random coefficients

Numerous models of physical systems contain parameters whose values are not known exactly. The physical and mathematical complexities arising in the prediction of the statistical behavior of such systems are discussed. Although the discussions are far from providing a satisfactory solution to such problems, they perhaps, by utilization of simple examples, will create a greater awareness of the statistical effect of random parameters.

Dickerson, J.

Deducing Electronic Unit Internal Response During a Vibration Test Using a Lumped Parameter Modeling Approach

During random vibration testing of electronic boxes there is often a desire to know the dynamic response of certain internal printed wiring boards (PWBs) for the purpose of monitoring the response of sensitive hardware or for post-test forensic analysis in support of anomaly investigation. Due to restrictions on internally mounted accelerometers for most flight hardware there is usually no means to empirically observe the internal dynamics of the unit, so one must resort to crude and highly uncertain approximations. One common practice is to apply Miles Equation, which does not account for the coupled response of the board in the chassis, resulting in significant over- or under-prediction. This paper explores the application of simple multiple-degree-of-freedom lumped parameter modeling to predict the coupled random vibration response of the PWBs in their fundamental modes of vibration. A simple tool using this approach could be used during or following a random vibration test to interpret vibration test data from a single external chassis measurement to deduce internal board dynamics by means of a rapid correlation analysis. Such a tool might also be useful in early design stages as a supplemental analysis to a more detailed finite element analysis to quickly prototype and analyze the dynamics of various design iterations. After developing the theoretical basis, a lumped parameter modeling approach is applied to an electronic unit for which both external and internal test vibration response measurements are available for direct comparison. Reasonable correlation of the results demonstrates the potential viability of such an approach. Further development of the preliminary approach presented in this paper will involve correlation with detailed finite element models and additional relevant test data.

random vibration response