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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

A new test statistic for climate models that includes field and spatial dependencies using Gaussian Markov random fields

Abstract. A new test statistic for climate model evaluation has been developed that potentially mitigates some of the limitations that exist for observing and representing field and space dependencies of climate phenomena. Traditionally such dependencies have been ignored when climate models have been evaluated against observational data, which makes it difficult to assess whether any given model is simulating observed climate for the right reasons. The new statistic uses Gaussian Markov random fields for estimating field and space dependencies within a first-order grid point neighborhood structure. We illustrate the ability of Gaussian Markov random fields to represent empirical estimates of field and space covariances using "witch hat" graphs. We further use the new statistic to evaluate the tropical response of a climate model (CAM3.1) to changes in two parameters important to its representation of cloud and precipitation physics. Overall, the inclusion of dependency information did not alter significantly the recognition of those regions of parameter space that best approximated observations. However, there were some qualitative differences in the shape of the response surface that suggest how such a measure could affect estimates of model uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accelerating Neutrino Event Generation in MARLEY Using CUDA-Based RNG and GPU Parallelization

MARLEY is a simulation tool that helps scientists study how low-energy neutrinos interact with matter. To work properly, MARLEY uses random numbers thousands of times in each simulation. These random numbers are important for modeling things like how neutrinos collide with atoms and what particles they produce. Right now, MARLEY runs on a regular computer processor (CPU) and uses a built-in random number generator called the Mersenne Twister. This setup works, but it can be slow, especially when trying to simulate many events. This research focuses on making MARLEY run faster by moving the random number generation and some of the repetitive calculations from the CPU to a graphics processing unit (GPU), which can handle many tasks at the same time. We use CUDA (a tool for programming NVIDIA GPUs) and cuRAND (a GPU-based random number library) to test faster alternatives to the current random number system. We compare different GPU-based generators, like curand_mtgp32, xorwow, and philox, to see which ones are the quickest and still give reliable results. Early tests show that using the GPU can make MARLEY simulations much faster. This project not only helps improve current simulation performance but also moves closer to a full simulation chain where all stages can run on modern GPU hardware.

Dunkley, Kimieka [Florida A-M]↗

General-Surrogate Adaptive Sampling Using Interquartile Range for Design Space Exploration

Abstract A surrogate model is a common tool to approximate system response at untested points for design space exploration. Adaptive sampling has been studied for improving the accuracy of surrogates iteratively by introducing additional samples (simulations and experiments). New samples are often selected based on the estimated uncertainty in the design space. While some surrogates such as kriging have readily available uncertainty models for their predictions, other surrogates do not. Consequently, there have been studies of using the process of leaving-samples-out (LSO) used in cross-validation tools to estimate prediction uncertainty, such as the universal prediction distribution (UPD). In this paper, an adaptive sampling scheme for general surrogates is proposed based on LSO, similar to cross-validation and interquartile range (IQR). Multiple submodels are first developed from LSO. The uncertainty is then estimated from the IQR of these surrogates at a given point. New samples are added iteratively at the point with maximum IQR for design space exploration. The proposed scheme is illustrated using kriging, radial basis function, and neural network surrogates. The proposed scheme is evaluated using four algebraic test functions. Multiple sets of initial samples were produced to account for randomness. For these test functions, the proposed scheme was found to be more accurate and robust than kriging with its own uncertainty model. The proposed scheme was more accurate than the UPD for three out of the four test functions. For a fixed number of samples, the IQR-based adaptive sampling also proved to be more accurate than all-at-once sampling in most cases even when the estimated uncertainty was only mildly correlated with prediction errors.

Engineering↗

Quinoa, Version 0.2

Quinoa is a set of computational tools that enables research and numerical analysis in fluid dynamics. At this time it remains a test-bed to experiment with various algorithms using fully asynchronous runtime systems. Currently, Quinoa consists of the following tools: (1) Walker, a numerical integrator for systems of stochastic differential equations in time. It is a mathematical tool to analyze and design the behavior of stochastic differential equations. It allows the estimation of arbitrary coupled statistics and probability density functions and is currently used for the design of statistical moment approximations for multiple mixing materials in variable-density turbulence. (2) Inciter, an overdecomposition-aware finite element field solver for partial differential equations using 3D unstructured grids. Inciter is used to research asynchronous mesh-based algorithms and to experiment with coupling asynchronous to bulk-synchronous parallel code. Two planned new features of Inciter, compared to the previous release (LA-CC-16-015), to be implemented in 2017, are (a) a simple Navier-Stokes solver for ideal single-material compressible gases, and (b) solution-adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), which enables dynamically concentrating compute resources to regions with interesting physics. Using the NS-AMR problem we plan to explore how to scale such high-load-imbalance simulations, representative of large production multiphysics codes, to very large problems on very large computers using an asynchronous runtime system. (3) RNGTest, a test harness to subject random number generators to stringent statistical tests enabling quantitative ranking with respect to their quality and computational cost. (4) UnitTest, a unit test harness, running hundreds of tests per second, capable of testing serial, synchronous, and asynchronous functions. (5) MeshConv, a mesh file converter that can be used to convert 3D tetrahedron meshes from and to either of the following formats: Gmsh, http://www.geuz.org/gmsh, Netgen, http://sourceforge.net/apps/mediawiki/netgen-mesher, ExodusII, http://sourceforge.net/projects/exodusii, HyperMesh, http://www.altairhyperworks.com/product/HyperMesh.

Bakosi, Jozsef↗

Using dorsal surface for individual identification of dairy calves through 3D deep learning algorithms

Advances in machine learning techniques have allowed the development of computer vision systems (CVS) that can accurately predict several phenotypes of interest for livestock operations. In this context, 3D images taken from a top-down view are particularly useful for estimating body condition score, growth development, and body biometrics in cattle. Frequently, such CVS rely on identification (ID) systems, such as electronic tags, as a way to match animal ID and the predicted phenotype. However, the same 3D images used to predict body weight and other animal biometrics could be adopted for animal recognition as well. Such alternative would optimize CVS to recognize animal ID and monitor growth development simultaneously while leveraging the same hardware infrastructure. Furthermore, this strategy could be used to recognize animals with similar color patterns. Nonetheless, growing animals are continuously changing body shape, which could limit its use as an invariant feature for pattern recognition. Thus, the objectives of this study were: (1) to compare algorithms for different 3D object representations to identify individual animals; and (2) to evaluate how short-term changes in body shape due to animal growth affect the predictive performance of these algorithms. For objective 1, the algorithms were trained (n = 4,558) and tested (n = 1,139) using images from 38 Holstein calves. For objective 2, we designed three different experiments using images (n = 2,347) from five Holstein calves taken over six weeks during their growing period, always training and testing on different weeks. Each experiment evaluated how changing a different parameter of the image capturing procedure affected the predictive ability of the trained algorithms. In the first experiment, we varied the total number of images per animal in the training set; in the second experiment, we varied the number of weeks while keeping a fixed number of images in the training set; and in the third experiment, we skipped weeks between images in the training and test sets. The F 1 score for objective (1) was up to 0.804 when testing with the last frames of each video, and up to 0.959 when using random frames for testing. For objective (2), the F 1 score was up to 0.947 for the first experiment when using 130 images per animal; up to 0.979 for the second experiment when using all five weeks; and up to 0.917 when not skipping weeks between training and testing. In conclusion, these results show that deep learning algorithms can be used to identify individual animals through their dorsal area 3D surfaces, and, from our experiments using calves in their growing period, that they are robust enough to account for changes in body shape and size, making them a promising tool for animal recognition during growth.

3D neural networks↗

A discrete-continuum coupled finite element modelling approach for fibre reinforced concrete

Highlights: • An easy-to-implement but effective meso-scale modelling approach is developed for FRC. • It is capable of simulating and interpreting all main failure mechanisms in FRC. • It is critically validated by experiments with single or multiple random fibres under various loading conditions. • It can be used to optimise key design factors of FRC at meso/material scale by parametric studies. - Abstract: Fibre reinforced concrete (FRC) exhibits complicated failure modes such as fibre breakage, mortar cracking, crushing and spalling, fibre-mortar interfacial debonding, depending on many material properties, geometric dimensions, boundary and loading conditions. Most existing numerical models are unable to reproduce these failure modes that may occur simultaneously or sequentially in a specimen, mainly due to difficulties in generating finite element meshes with a large number of randomly-oriented fibres. Herein we develop a discrete-continuum coupled finite element modelling approach for FRC materials capable of effectively simulating all the major failure modes. The continuum damaged plasticity model is used to simulate damage and fracture behaviour of the mortar, while debonding of fibre-mortar interfaces is modelled by nonlinear cohesive interfacial elements. Unique techniques are devised to generate conforming meshes between fibres and the surrounding mortar so that the randomly-oriented fibres are easily modelled. The modelling approach is validated by simulating single fibre pullout tests with different inclination angles, notched and non-notched direct tensile tests and three-point bending beam tests with randomly-distributed multiple fibres.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Metal hydride composition-derived parameters as machine learning features for material design and H 2 storage

Though hydrogen is a promising energy carrier for a green future, many challenges persist. One is the difficulty in engineering storage solutions, with metal hydrides being a leading contender among solid-state strategies. To facilitate efficient searching of candidate materials, ridge regression, simple decision trees, random forest ensembles, and gradient boosting ensembles were employed to predict the energy of formation, with the random forest ensemble resulting in the lowest test set error. First, two public databases, Materials Project and HydPark, were searched for metal hydrides. Feature engineering was performed before the models were developed, resulting in electronegativity, density, atomic density, d-character, f-character, band gap, hydrogen weight fraction, magnetization, temperature, and pressure being retained. The models were then benchmarked by the lowest test error before a random forest ensemble was used to populate entries missing energy of formation. Furthermore, all were then scored by hydrogen storage capacity and energy of formation suitability. Readily available features including several derived from only the chemical formula which were found to be highly predictive. and so are promising for high-throughput screening of arbitrary novel hydride formulations and blends for thermodynamic feasibility.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Random numbers from vacuum fluctuations

We implement a quantum random number generator based on a balanced homodyne measurement of vacuum fluctuations of the electromagnetic field. The digitized signal is directly processed with a fast randomness extraction scheme based on a linear feedback shift register. The random bit stream is continuously read in a computer at a rate of about 480 Mbit/s and passes an extended test suite for random numbers.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Hardware Fuzzing with An Emulator

Bugs in digital logic have led to some significant security vulnerabilities. Hardware bugs are particularly troublesome since they cannot be easily patched. Additionally, if the bug is in the root of trust, all trust built upon it can be vulnerable. Traditional testing either require a deep knowledge of the system, creative attack vectors and lots of human interaction. This is not scalable as there are very few engineers that can wear the hat of a designer, a verification engineer, and a cybersecurity expert. Hardware fuzzing is a relatively new research area in dynamic hardware testing. It has proven to be an effective method for discovering bugs, unexpected behaviors, and security vulnerabilities in software. While hardware fuzzing is new to the hardware domain, it has a strong track record in software testing. Fuzzing is a testing technique that randomly mutates the input data to uncover bugs or vulnerabilities in the design. It is especially good at finding corner cases that test engineers can not envision. Another advantage over other dynamic testing techniques is that, if done well, deep knowledge of the design is not required. Additionally, fuzzing scales well. If the system is set up correctly, it can run unsupervised for weeks if necessary. In this work, we propose using hardware fuzzing to improve the input vector generation for an information flow tracking tool. To get reasonable throughput of test vectors, an emulator is targeted as the execution platform. Efficient emulator execution has some specific requirements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Combining Radiography and Passive Measurements for Radiological Threat Localization in Cargo

Detecting shielded special nuclear material (SNM) in a cargo container is a difficult problem, since shielding reduces the amount of radiation escaping the container. Radiography provides information that is complementary to that provided by passive gamma-ray detection systems: while not directly sensitive to radiological materials, radiography can reveal highly shielded regions that may mask a passive radiological signal. Combining these measurements has the potential to improve SNM detection, either through improved sensitivity or by providing a solution to the inverse problem to estimate source properties (strength and location). We present a data-fusion method that uses a radiograph to provide an estimate of the radiation-transport environment for gamma rays from potential sources. This approach makes quantitative use of radiographic images without relying on image interpretation, and results in a probabilistic description of likely source locations and strengths. We present results for this method for a modeled test case of a cargo container passing through a plastic-scintillator-based radiation portal monitor and a transmission-radiography system. We find that a radiograph-based inversion scheme allows for localization of a low-noise source placed randomly within the test container to within 40 cm, compared to 70 cm for triangulation alone, while strength estimation accuracy is improved by a factor of six. Improvements are seen in regions of both high and low shielding, but are most pronounced in highly shielded regions. The approach proposed here combines transmission and emission data in a manner that has not been explored in the cargo-screening literature, advancing the ability to accurately describe a hidden source based on currently-available instrumentation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Land surface model parameter optimisation using in situ flux data: comparison of gradient-based versus random search algorithms (a case study using ORCHIDEE v1.9.5.2)

Land surface models (LSMs), which form the land component of earth system models, rely on numerous processes for describing carbon, water and energy budgets, often associated with highly uncertain parameters. Data assimilation (DA) is a useful approach for optimising the most critical parameters in order to improve model accuracy and refine future climate predictions. In this study, we compare two different DA methods for optimising the parameters of seven plant functional types (PFTs) of the ORCHIDEE LSM using daily averaged eddy-covariance observations of net ecosystem exchange and latent heat flux at 78 sites across the globe. We perform a technical investigation of two classes of minimisation methods – local gradient-based (the L-BFGS-B algorithm, limited memory Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno algorithm with bound constraints) and global random search (the genetic algorithm) – by evaluating their relative performance in terms of the model–data fit and the difference in retrieved parameter values. We examine the performance of each method for two cases: when optimising parameters at each site independently (“single-site” approach) and when simultaneously optimising the model at all sites for a given PFT using a common set of parameters (“multi-site” approach). We find that for the single site case the random search algorithm results in lower values of the cost function (i.e. lower model–data root mean square differences) than the gradient-based method; the difference between the two methods is smaller for the multi-site optimisation due to a smoothing of the cost function shape with a greater number of observations. The spread of the cost function, when performing the same tests with 16 random first-guess parameters, is much larger with the gradient-based method, due to the higher likelihood of being trapped in local minima. When using pseudo-observation tests, the genetic algorithm results in a closer approximation of the true posterior parameter value in the L-BFGS-B algorithm. We demonstrate the advantages and challenges of different DA techniques and provide some advice on using it for the LSM parameter optimisation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data From Experiments on Bubbling Fluidization of Zeolite in a Rectangular Bubbling Fluidized Bed

Fluidization experiments were conducted in a lab-scale rectangular bubbling fluidized bed with the objective of generating a high-quality dataset for model validation and artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) training. Zeolite was chosen as the bed material, and the fluidizing medium was air as supplied by a compressor. Three different flow rates at the inlet were chosen such that the particles were fluidized but not elutriated from the system. The test matrix involved randomization and replicates to provide uncertainty estimates as well as four different batches of zeolite as the bed material. The quantities of interest obtained from this study were statistics of differential pressures, interface heights, and particle velocities. Considering all the components of the elaborate test plan, the results obtained were consistent and reproducible. Characterization tests were performed to estimate particle properties including size, density, coefficient of friction, coefficient of restitution, and minimum fluidization velocity. In addition, the angle of repose from granular discharge experiments has been reported to account for rolling friction, though its effect on the overall process is expected to be negligible.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Topology Estimation using Graphical Models in Multi-Phase Power Distribution Grids

Power distribution grids are structurally operated radially, such that energized lines form a collection of trees with a substation at the root of each tree. The operational topology may change from time to time, however tracking these changes, even though important for the distribution grid operation and control, is hindered by limited real-time monitoring. This work develops a learning framework to reconstruct the radial operational structure of the distribution grid from synchronized voltage measurements. To detect operational lines our learning algorithm uses conditional independence tests for continuous random variables that is applicable to a wide class of probability distributions and Gaussian injections in particular. Furthermore, our algorithm applies to the practical case of unbalanced three-phase power flow. The performance is validated on AC power flow simulations over three phase IEEE distribution grid test cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

$\mathrm{SageNet}$: Fast Neural Network Emulation of the Stiff-amplified Gravitational Waves from Inflation

Accurate modeling of the inflationary gravitational waves (GWs) requires time-consuming, iterative numerical integrations of differential equations to take into account their backreaction on the expansion history. To improve computational efficiency while preserving accuracy, we present the Stiff-amplified Gravitational-wave Emulator Network (SageNet), a deep learning framework designed to replace conventional numerical solvers (code available at https://github.com/YifangLuo/SageNet). SageNet employs a long short-term memory architecture to emulate the present-day energy density spectrum of the inflationary GWs with possible stiff amplification, Ω GW (f). Trained on a data set of 25,689 numerically generated solutions, SageNet allows accurate reconstructions of Ω GW (f) and generalizes well to a wide range of cosmological parameters; 90.9% of the test emulations with randomly distributed parameters exhibit errors of under 4%. In addition, SageNet demonstrates its ability to learn and reproduce the artificial, adaptive sampling patterns in numerical calculations, which implement denser sampling of frequencies around changes in spectral indices in Ω GW (f). The dual capability of learning both physical and artificial features of the numerical GW spectra establishes SageNet as a robust alternative to exact numerical methods. Finally, our benchmark tests show that SageNet reduces the computation time from tens of seconds to milliseconds, achieving a speedup of ∼10 4 times over standard CPU-based numerical solvers with the potential for further acceleration on GPU hardware. These capabilities make SageNet a powerful tool for accelerating Bayesian inference procedures for extended cosmological models. In a broad sense, the SageNet framework offers a fast, accurate, and generalizable solution to modeling cosmological observables whose theoretical predictions demand costly differential equation solvers.

Astronomy data modeling↗

Quantum random number generation

Quantum physics can be exploited to generate true random numbers, which play important roles in many applications, especially in cryptography. Genuine randomness from the measurement of a quantum system reveals the inherent nature of quantumness -- coherence, an important feature that differentiates quantum mechanics from classical physics. The generation of genuine randomness is generally considered impossible with only classical means. Based on the degree of trustworthiness on devices, quantum random number generators (QRNGs) can be grouped into three categories. The first category, practical QRNG, is built on fully trusted and calibrated devices and typically can generate randomness at a high speed by properly modeling the devices. The second category is self-testing QRNG, where verifiable randomness can be generated without trusting the actual implementation. The third category, semi-self-testing QRNG, is an intermediate category which provides a tradeoff between the trustworthiness on the device and the random number generation speed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

First Moments of a Polyhedron Clipped by a Paraboloid

We provide closed-form expressions for the first moments (i.e., the volume and volume-weighted centroid) of a polyhedron clipped by a paraboloid, that is, of a polyhedron intersected with the subset of the three-dimensional real space located on one side of a paraboloid. These closed-form expressions are derived following successive applications of the divergence theorem and the judicious parametrization of the intersection of the polyhedron’s faces with the paraboloid. Here, we provide means for identifying ambiguous discrete intersection topologies, and propose a corrective procedure for preventing their occurence. Finally, we put our proposed closed-form expressions and numerical approach to the test with millions of random and manually engineered polyhedron/paraboloid intersection configurations. The results of these tests show that we are able to provide robust machine-accurate estimates of the first moments at a computational cost that is within one order of magnitude of that of state-of-the-art half-space clipping algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗