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Implementing an Objectives-Driven, Risk-Informed, and Case-Assured Approach to Safety and Mission Success at NASA

NASA is developing a “Standard for Assurance of Space Flight Safety and Mission Success” that implements an objectives-driven, risk-informed, and case-assured approach to safety and mission success (S&MS) for NASA space flight programs and projects. The standard aligns with the philosophy of risk leadership that has recently been established in NASA policy to assure acceptable levels of flight crew safety and mission success risk. It is consistent with existing NASA risk management requirements and is compatible with NASA program management and systems engineering requirements. The methodology described in the standard is presented in terms of an S&MS assurance framework that is designed to allow substantial flexibility in the specific means by which programs and projects achieve acceptable mission S&MS risk. Such flexibility is necessary to accommodate the increasingly broad range of acquisition strategies employed by NASA, including commercial transportation services, as well as to accommodate the increasingly rapid evolution of space flight-related technologies and practices. A key feature of the S&MS assurance framework is the specification of S&MS success criteria for each life-cycle review (LCR). The S&MS assurance case is structured around these criteria, the satisfaction of which indicates that the program/project is adhering to the S&MS risk posture. This enables the evolving S&MS assurance case to be used as a fundamental program/project submittal at each LCR, where its inherent structure of argument, supported by evidence, directly supports the evaluation of the program/project with respect to the S&MS success criteria, and by extension, the S&MS risk posture. As such, the S&MS assurance case is integral to program/project systems engineering, risk management, and S&MS oversight activities, and provides the principal basis for S&MS risk acceptance by the Decision Authority throughout the program/project life cycle.

Risk Posture

Tradeoffs When Considering Deep Reinforcement Learning for Contingency Management in Advanced Air Mobility

Air transportation is undergoing a rapid evolution globally with the introduction of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and with it comes novel challenges and opportunities for transforming aviation. As AAM operations introduce increasing heterogeneity in vehicle capabilities and density, increased levels of automation are likely necessary to achieve operational safety and efficiency goals. This paper focuses on one example where increased automation has been suggested. Autonomous operations will need contingency management systems that can monitor evolving risk across a span of interrelated (or interdependent) hazards and, if necessary, execute appropriate control interventions via supervised or automated decision making. Accommodating this complex environment may require automated functions (autonomy) that apply artificial intelligence (AI) techniques that can adapt and respond to a quickly changing environment. This paper explores the use of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) which has shown promising performance in complex and high-dimensional environments where the objective can be constructed as a sequential decision-making problem. An extension of a prior formulation of the contingency management problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) is presented and uses a DRL framework to train agents that mitigate hazards present in the simulation environment. A comparison of these learning-based agents and classical techniques is presented in terms of their performance, verification difficulties, and development process.

machine learningautonomous systems; flight simulat

Tradeoffs When Considering Deep Reinforcement Learning for Contingency Management in Advanced Air Mobility

Air transportation is undergoing a rapid evolution globally with the introduction of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and with it comes novel challenges and opportunities for transforming aviation. As AAM operations introduce increasing heterogeneity in vehicle capabilities and density, increased levels of automation are likely necessary to achieve operational safety and efficiency goals. This paper focuses on one example where increased automation has been suggested. Autonomous operations will need contingency management systems that can monitor evolving risk across a span of interrelated (or interdependent) hazards and, if necessary, execute appropriate control interventions via supervised or automated decision making. Accommodating this complex environment may require automated functions (autonomy) that apply artificial intelligence (AI) techniques that can adapt and respond to a quickly changing environment. This paper explores the use of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) which has shown promising performance in complex and high-dimensional environments where the objective can be constructed as a sequential decision-making problem. An extension of a prior formulation of the contingency management problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) is presented and uses a DRL framework to train agents that mitigate hazards present in the simulation environment. A comparison of these learning-based agents and classical techniques is presented in terms of their performance, verification difficulties, and development process.

machine learning

Physics issues of gamma ray burst spectral evolution

It is suggested that the study of the rapid spectral evolution of gamma-ray bursts may provide information on the emission and particle energizing mechanisms independently of the ultimare astrophysical or energy source models. Correlation analysis of spectral hardness and other measurable quantities suggests that the luminosity is proportional to color temperature, especially during spike decay. The use of the peak power energy as a gauge of spectral hardness is proposed, and the notion of Type I and Type II burst spikes is introduced. If the temperature-luminosity correlations are confirmed, then an accelerating pair avalanche scenario may be worth pursuing.

Liang, Edison P.

Flight Planning for the International Space Station - Levitation Observation of Dendrite Evolution in Steel Ternary Alloy Rapid Solidification (LODESTARS)

During rapid solidification, a molten sample is cooled below its equilibrium solidification temperature to form a metastable liquid. Once nucleation is initiated, growth of the solid phase proceeds and can be seen as a sudden rise in temperature. The heat of fusion is rejected ahead of the growing dendrites into the undercooled liquid in a process known as recalescence. Fe-Cr-Ni alloys may form several equilibrium phases and the hypoeutectic alloys, with compositions near the commercially important 316 stainless steel alloy, are observed to solidify by way of a two-step process known as double recalescence. During double recalescence, the first temperature rise is associated with formation of the metastable ferritic solid phase with subsequent conversion to the stable austenitic phase during the second temperature rise. Selection of which phase grows into the undercooled melt during primary solidification may be accomplished by choice of the appropriate nucleation trigger material or by control of the processing parameters during rapid solidification. Due to the highly reactive nature of the molten sample material and in order to avoid contamination of the undercooled melt, a containerless electromagnetic levitation (EML) processing technique is used. In ground-based EML, the same forces that support the weight of the sample against gravity also drive convection in the liquid sample. However, in microgravity, the force required to position the sample is greatly reduced, so convection may be controlled over a wide range of internal flows. Space Shuttle experiments have shown that the double recalescence behavior of Fe-Cr-Ni alloys changes between ground and space EML experiments. This program is aimed at understanding how melt convection influences phase selection and the evolution of rapid solidification microstructures.

Flemings, Merton C.

The evolution of a rapidly-expanding active region loop into a trans-equatorial coronal mass ejection

On 23 February 1997, a coronal mass ejection erupted off the NE limb of the sun from a coronal loop system which had earlier been visible soft X-rays and Fe XIV. The ejection coincided with the onset of a small soft X-ray event, and it left the corona at a position angle of around 60 deg at around 880 km s(exp -1). This ejection then merged with a much larger event which spanned the equator and became indistinguishable, in projection, with the primary event. The soft X-ray images indicate that the highest temperature plasma was associated with the loop system near the original erupting loop. A large loop system became visible south of the equator as the coronal mass ejection developed. It appears that there are high closed coronal magnetic loops linking the northern region to that in the south.

Simnett, G. M.

Short Time Scale Evolution of Microbiolites in Rapidly Receding Altiplanic Lakes: Learning How to Recognize Changing Signatures of Life

As part of the exploration of high altitude lakes as analogs to Martian paleolakes environment, we are investigating a remarkably large and diverse field of lacustrine stromatolites located at 4,365m in the Bolivian Altiplano (22 deg 47 00 min S and 67 deg 47.00 min W).The field is composed of both early Holocene fossil structures located on paleoshorelines and present-day active cyanobacterial communities on the shore and at the bottom of the current Laguna Blanca and Verde. Its physical environment, broad diversity of morphologies, and their associated spatial heterogeneity, origin, and scale offer a unique opportunity to explore microbiolites in conditions reminiscent of early Earth and Mars. At this altitude and latitude, UV radiation levels are enhanced (40% higher than sea level) and harmful to microorganisms living in shallow waters which provide only minimal protection from UV. Similar conditions prevailed on early Earth when the ozone layer had yet to be formed in the atmosphere. Compared to those studied at sea levels, these stromatolites could yield new insights about the earliest terrestrial forms of life. Moreover, the combination of physical and geological environment of this site is exceptionally analogous to conditions believed to be prevalent on Mars at the end of the Noachian (3.5 Ga ago), allowing to test the potential for forming stromatolites in martian paleolakes and learn how to identify their fossil record remotely. Our overarching goal is to generate new astrobiological information on high-altitude stromatolites as clues to early biospheres with implications for Earth and Mars. Our two central objectives are: (1) characterize the biological, geological, and mineralogical features and significance of this field, and to identify geo-signatures such as morphology, geology, chronostratigraphy, mineralogy and biosignatures, and (2) to facilitate remote-sensing and ground robotic detection capabilities for future astrobiological missions to Mars.

Cabrol, N. A.

Rapid Modeling and Analysis Tools: Evolution, Status, Needs and Directions

Advanced aerospace systems are becoming increasingly more complex, and customers are demanding lower cost, higher performance, and high reliability. Increased demands are placed on the design engineers to collaborate and integrate design needs and objectives early in the design process to minimize risks that may occur later in the design development stage. High performance systems require better understanding of system sensitivities much earlier in the design process to meet these goals. The knowledge, skills, intuition, and experience of an individual design engineer will need to be extended significantly for the next generation of aerospace system designs. Then a collaborative effort involving the designer, rapid and reliable analysis tools and virtual experts will result in advanced aerospace systems that are safe, reliable, and efficient. This paper discusses the evolution, status, needs and directions for rapid modeling and analysis tools for structural analysis. First, the evolution of computerized design and analysis tools is briefly described. Next, the status of representative design and analysis tools is described along with a brief statement on their functionality. Then technology advancements to achieve rapid modeling and analysis are identified. Finally, potential future directions including possible prototype configurations are proposed.

Knight, Norman F., Jr.

Continuous in vitro evolution of bacteriophage RNA polymerase promoters

Rapid in vitro evolution of bacteriophage T7, T3, and SP6 RNA polymerase promoters was achieved by a method that allows continuous enrichment of DNAs that contain functional promoter elements. This method exploits the ability of a special class of nucleic acid molecules to replicate continuously in the presence of both a reverse transcriptase and a DNA-dependent RNA polymerase. Replication involves the synthesis of both RNA and cDNA intermediates. The cDNA strand contains an embedded promoter sequence, which becomes converted to a functional double-stranded promoter element, leading to the production of RNA transcripts. Synthetic cDNAs, including those that contain randomized promoter sequences, can be used to initiate the amplification cycle. However, only those cDNAs that contain functional promoter sequences are able to produce RNA transcripts. Furthermore, each RNA transcript encodes the RNA polymerase promoter sequence that was responsible for initiation of its own transcription. Thus, the population of amplifying molecules quickly becomes enriched for those templates that encode functional promoters. Optimal promoter sequences for phage T7, T3, and SP6 RNA polymerase were identified after a 2-h amplification reaction, initiated in each case with a pool of synthetic cDNAs encoding greater than 10(10) promoter sequence variants.

Non-NASA Center

The dynamics of a rapidly escaping atmosphere - Applications to the evolution of earth and Venus

A simple model for the rapid escape of a hydrogen thermosphere is presented in order to establish the energy-limited flux of escaping particles. The model assumes that the atmosphere is tightly bound by gravity at the lower boundary, that all the EUV is absorbed in a narrow region where the optical depth is unity, and that the main source of heating is solar EUV. The flux is limited by the amount of EUV energy absorbed, which is in turn controlled by the radial extent of the thermosphere. It is found that, regardless of the amount of hydrogen in the thermosphere, the low temperatures which accompany rapid escape limit its extent and thus constrain the flux. The results are applied to the earth and Venus, showing that the escape of hydrogen from these planets would have been energy-limiting if their primordial atmospheres contained total hydrogen mixing ratios exceeding only a few percent. This conclusion places a constraint on the theory of the origin and evolution of the planets.

Watson, A. J.

Transient Creep of a Composite Lower Crust: A Polymineralic Basis for Rapidly Evolving Postseismic Deformation Modes - 2

Postseismic horizontal strain and displacement following the June 28, 1992, Landers, California, earthquake (M(sub W) 7.3) is broad scale and cannot be explained solely by delayed afterslip located at the rupturing fault trace. Both the observed strain at Pifion Flat Observatory (PFO) and observed Global Positioning System receiver velocities evolve rapidly after the Landers-Big Bear earthquake sequence. The observed exponential decay of these motions, with timescales of 4-34 days, may reflect a soft creep rheology in the lower crust and brittle-ductile transition zone or even within the seismogenic crust itself. Here a simple model of a two-dimensional screw dislocation in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic Earth is employed in conjunction with a composite rheology to demonstrate that the short timescale transient response modes (approx. = 4-34 days) are consistent with the behavior of a biviscous lower crust. The lowest viscosity of this system is derivable from laboratory experimental data on the long-term creep of natural quarztites, and the highest viscosity is consistent with isostasy-related lower crustal flow in a continental extensional tectonic environment. The model predicts significant stress relaxation at the base of the seismogenic crust. Near the base of the seismogenic zone, and about 4 km away from the mainshock, the rate of predicted relaxation is of the order of 0.01 MPa/ d during the first 20 days of postseismic flow. Oblate spheroidal inclusions at 5% concentration levels that are both aligned and fairly flat in shape and that have a viscosity of 3-4 x 10(exp 15) Pa s are consistent with both the amplitude and decay time of horizontal crustal strain observed at PFO after the Landers mainshock. It is speculated that the structures exposed in cross sections and in seismic reflection profiles of the lower crust that have mylonitic associations are, in part, the cause of such rapid postseismic evolution in southeastern California. Unmylonitized quartz-rich rock at sufficiently elevated temperatures could also contribute to the rapid decay modes.

Ivins, Erik R.

Hydrodynamics of coalescing binary neutron stars: Ellipsoidal treatment

We employ an approximate treatment of dissipative hydrodynamics in three dimensions to study the coalescence of binary neutron stars driven by the emission of gravitational waves. The stars are modeled as compressible ellipsoids obeying a polytropic equation of state; all internal fluid velocities are assumed to be linear functions of the coordinates. The hydrodynamics equations then reduce to a set of coupled ordinary differential equations for the evolution of the principal axes of the ellipsoids, the internal velocity parameters, and the binary orbital parameters. Gravitational radiation reaction and viscous dissipation are both incorporated. We set up exact initial binary equilibrium configurations and follow the transition from the quasi-static, secular decay of the orbit at large separation to the rapid dynamical evolution of the configurations just prior to contact. A hydrodynamical instability resulting from tidal interactions significantly accelerates the coalescence at small separation, leading to appreciable radial infall velocity and tidal lag angles near contact. This behavior is reflected in the gravitational waveforms and may be observable by gravitational wave detectors under construction. In cases where the neutron stars have spins which are not aligned with the orbital angular momentum, the spin-induced quadrupole moment can lead to precession of the orbital plane and therefore modulation of the gravitational wave amplitude even at large orbital radius. However, the amplitude of the modulation is small for typical neutron star binaries with spins much smaller than the orbital angular momentum.

Lai, Dong

Hydrodynamic instability and coalescence of binary neutron stars

We study the importance of hydrodynamic effects on the evolution of coalescing binary neutron stars. Using an approximate energy functional constructed from equilibrium solutions for polytropic binary configuration, we incorporate hydrodynamic effects into the calculation of the orbital decay driven by gravitational wave emission. In particular, we follow the transition between the quasi-static, secular decay of the orbit at large separation and the rapid dynamical evolution of confirgurations approaching contact. We show that a purely Newtonian hydrodynamic instability can significantly accelerate the coalescence at small separation. Such an instability occurs in all close binary configurations containing sufficiently incompressible stars. Calculations are performed for various neutron star masses, radii, and spins. The influence of the stiffness of the equation of state is also explored by varying the effective polytopic index. Typically, we find that the radial infall velocity just prior to contact is about 10% of the tangential orbital velocity. Once the stability limit is reached, the final evolution only takes another orbit. Post-Newtonian effects can move the stability limit to a larger binary separation, and may induce an even larger radial velocity. We also consider the possibiltiy of mass transfer form one neutron star to the other. We show that stable mass transfer is unlikely except when the mass of one of the components is very small (M is less than or approximately 0.4 solar mass) and the viscosity is high enough to maintain corotation. Otherwise, either the two stars come into contact or the dynamical instability sets in before a Roche limit can be reached.

Lai, Dong

Energy dependence and temporal evolution of the He-3/He-4 ratios in heavy-ion-rich energetic particle events

A study is presented of the energy dependence of the He-3/He-4 between 0.44 and 4.1 MeV per nucleon for six heavy-ion-rich events observed in 1974 and 1976. The observations were made using the low-energy dE/dx vs E Ultralow-Energy Particle telescope on IMP 8. It was found that all selected heavy-ion-rich events are also enriched in He-3: that the He-3/He-4 ratio decreases with decreasing energies; and that a rapid temporal evolution of the He-3/He-4 and the Fe/(H + He) ratios is strongly correlated during one event with the maximum value at the onset. These results are analyzed in terms of a model based on the preferential injection of He-3 and Fe resulting from turbulent ion heating and subsequent Fermi acceleration.

Moebius, E.

Satellite formation. II

A satellite formation model is extended to include evolution of planetary ring material and elliptic orbital motion. In this model the formation of the moon begins at a later time in the growth of the earth, and a significant fraction of the lunar material is processed through a circumterrestrial debris cloud where volatiles might have been lost. Thus, the chemical differences between the earth and moon are more plausibly accounted for. Satellites of the outer planets probably formed in large numbers throughout the growth of those planets. Because of rapid inward evolution of the orbits of small satellites, the present satellite systems represent only satellites formed in the last few percent of the growths of their primaries. The rings of Saturn and Uranus are most plausibly explained as the debris of satellites disrupted within the Roche limit. Because such a ring would collapse onto the planet in the course of any significant further accretion by the planet, the rings must have formed very near or even after the conclusion of accretion.

Harris, A. W.

Observation and simulation of the radial evolution and stream structure of solar wind turbulence

This paper presents a brief overview of the observed evolution in a variety of quantities describing the turbulent evolution of the interplanetary plasma and describes simulation results consistent with many features of the evolution. The turbulence is manifested through a dissipation at small scales in the inner heliosphere with a corresponding evolution in the breakpoint between a relatively flat and a Kolmogoroff spectrum; an evolution from kinetically to (slightly) magnetically dominated energy of the plasma fluctuations; a general decrease in the cross helicity or 'Alfvenicity'; changes in the anisotropy of the fluctuations; and the increasing predominance of quasi-pressure-balanced structures in the compressive component of the fluctuations. MHD simulations with shear layers either side of a central current sheet show that even in the absence of compressibility the lack of a mean field along the direction of the main flow in the current sheet leads to rapid nonlinear evolution and the observed characteristics of 'Elsasser spectra' of the fields in the inner heliosphere. Adding compressibility to the simulations does not greatly change the 'incompressive' quantities but leads in addition to observed correlations between a measure of compression and other quantities.

Roberts, D. A.