Machine learning models for real-time forecasting of shale gas production
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Advanced Sensors for Real Time Monitoring of Natural Gas Pipelines
2021 Carbon Management and Oil and Gas Research Project Review Meeting, Virtual, August 23-27, 2021
Wright, Ruishu↗
Real-Time Health Monitoring for Gas Turbine Components Using Online Learning and High-Dimensional Data (Final Report)
Capital-intensive turbomachinery, such as gas turbines and combined cycle plants, are constantly being monitored for performance anomalies, faults, and physical degradation. Although these power-generating assets are equipped with hundreds of sensors, existing monitoring tools can only handle moderate-sized data. As a result, only a handful of aggregate metrics are used to monitor machine health. At the same time, developing advanced tools suitable for large datasets have been restricted by the lack of appropriate data. The objective of this proposal was to demonstrate a Big Data analytics framework for fault detection and diagnosis in gas turbine applications. We develop a predictive analytics framework methodology guided by these experimental data, industrial data from our collaborators, and physics-based models with engineering domain knowledge. Our analytics framework consists of four key components: (1) a data curation process that addresses data storage, data quality assessments, and integrity checks, (2) a feature engineering component that utilizes statistical methods and transformation algorithms guided by physics-based models to extract high-fidelity fault features that can be leveraged for fault detection and classifying fault severities, (3) a Machine Learning-based fault detection and diagnostics algorithms for detecting operational and hardware faults in the combustion and the turbines section. We utilize two industry-class gas turbine component test rigs to generate first of its kind data for critical gas turbine faults with varying severity levels. Advanced gas turbine test facilities will be interrogated using state-of-the-art instrumentation techniques to build fault signatures and data trends for key combustor and turbine faults. Data generated from a combustor test rig (Georgia Tech) and a turbine test rig (Penn State) during both normal operation and with seeded faults serve as the basis for the Big Data sets. The test conditions in the two test facilities include common, critical events that occur in the operation. Utilizing the combustor test rig, we examine two common combustor faults: lean blowout and centerbody degradation. For the turbine section we develop analytic models for monitoring cooling faults in the gas turbine.
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
Reduced Order Model for Guided Wave Propagation on Gas Pipelines to Enable Real-Time Simulation
Reduced order model for simulation of Guided wave propagation is presented here. The utilization of reduced order models ensures efficient data generation for a variety of parameters where it takes huge computational effort to simulate, crucial for timely monitoring and decision-making. Autoencoder based reduced order models are proposed here, which are trained on simulated data from open-source finite element framework, Firedrake.
Bukka, Sandeep Reddy↗
Creating an Advanced Sensor Network to calculate real-time, mass-weighted flue gas composition and air heater leakage of a coal-fired utility boiler under dynamic operating conditions
Utilization of renewable energy sources to minimize the environmental impact of energy production has changed the way utility boilers operate, requiring frequent load cycling between full load and partial loads as low as 30%. Dynamic operation of coal-fired utility boilers significantly reduces boiler efficiency when compared to steady state at full load. Data-driven plant optimization has shown success with coal-fired utility boilers under dynamic operating conditions. The purpose of this work was to create an Advanced Sensor Network (ASN) to provide more extensive real-time data to inform dynamic plant optimization of Net Unit Heat Rate (NUHR). The ASN consists of gas sampling grids in the convective pass of the boiler and downstream of the air heater. These sampling grids allow for quantification of spatial variation of flue gas within the boiler and calculation of mass-weighted composition of flue gas through the combination of composition, velocity, and temperature measurements. The comparison of O 2 between the inlet and outlet of the air heater is used to calculate air leakage in real time. Flue gas composition and air heater leakage are both important factors in boiler efficiency and NUHR. Further, the results of this work support the value of mass-weighted averages for determining flue gas composition accurately. The measurements from the ASN show increased composition stratification during dynamic operation, with an average standard deviation 38% higher than observed during steady-state operation. Air heater leakage was also observed to increase from 2.8% to 5.1% following a load change. Prior to the installation of the ASN, these data would not have been available for dynamic control. These real-time data will be leveraged to calculate and optimize for NUHR during dynamic operation in future work.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Quantification of trace iodine using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy for real-time monitoring of nuclear off-gas streams
This study evaluated the potential of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for real-time monitoring of trace gas-phase iodine, which is an element of high significance in nuclear applications due to its long radioactive half-life (as iodine-129), volatility, and biological impact. In anticipation of iodine evolving into off-gas systems in molten salt reactor and nuclear fuel recycling applications, this research aimed to assess LIBS performance in flowing argon and helium matrices; optimize measurement parameters using a multichannel spectrometer; and perform calibrations to assess predictive capabilities and limits of detection (LODs). Experimental results successfully measured gas-phase iodine in flowing argon and helium; however, trace iodine was not detected in air. Optimal delay times were determined to be 10 µs for argon and 1 µs for helium, which are consistent with the expected shorter plasma lifetime in helium relative to argon. An emission line survey was provided with the 206.16, 804.37, 902.24, and 905.83 nm peaks, which were identified as the strongest emission peaks. Calibration models were successfully built in both helium and argon, achieving LODs down to 3 ppm in helium and 5 ppm in argon. The iodine emission at 905.83 nm emerged as the most robust for calibration and was subsequently applied to a time series dataset in argon. The predictive trace confirmed the feasibility of employing LIBS for continuous, online quantification of trace iodine in flowing gas systems.
Andrews, Hunter B. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
Real-time tracking and analysis of gas bubble dynamics in laser powder bed fusion using in-situ X-ray characterization and machine learning
Porosity defects remain a significant challenge in the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process, adversely affecting the mechanical properties and reliability of additively manufactured components. Here, this study investigates the real-time formation and trajectory of gas bubbles during LPBF of Al6061 alloy using advanced in-situ X-ray characterization and machine learning. The unsupervised Gaussian mixture model and particle tracking algorithm developed are able to precisely track and quantify the properties of gas bubbles and keyhole pores. Our analysis identified five distinct types of gas bubble formation and movement patterns, emphasizing the diverse origins and behaviors of these defects. It enables precise quantification of trajectories, velocities, and morphological changes of gas bubbles, offering a granular view of the subsurface dynamics within the melt pool. Additionally, we explored keyhole-induced pore dynamics, revealing the critical role of keyhole oscillation and collapse for the formation of both large and small gas pores. It defines four different regions of gas bubble movement within the melt pool, providing a clearer understanding of how local fluid dynamics affect pore behavior. The results underscore the importance of integrating in-situ experimental observation and automated machine learning to develop a more robust predictive model for defect formation in LPBF.
In-situ X-ray imaging↗
Coordinated operation of electricity and natural gas systems from day-ahead to real-time markets
Power systems worldwide are becoming more reliant on energy from natural gas, wind, and solar, posing possible reliability and coordination challenges from the tighter coupling of these infrastructure systems. This paper proposes a framework for the market-based coordination of electricity and natural gas system operations. The proposed framework includes a power system model that accounts for flexibility in the commitment of power plants with short start-up and shut-down times, coupled with a dynamic gas model that simulates when gas cannot be delivered to generators. The capabilities of the framework are illustrated using real-world electric power and gas systems, including scenarios around wind and solar penetrations and the analysis of time-variant, “shaped flow” gas nominations. Our results indicate that coordination between power and gas systems improves total gas delivery and reduces out-of-merit order dispatch in the electricity system, and that shaped flows may reduce unserved gas in systems with high penetrations of wind and solar. Coordination can have mixed effects on carbon-dioxide emissions, with emissions increasing with coordination for current systems during high load weeks but decreasing for systems with high renewable penetrations, particularly during periods of high variability.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Real-time well integrity monitoring in underground gas storage wells using distributed temperature and strain sensing: a field demonstration
Here, this article presents the first successful field demonstration of a combined distributed temperature and strain sensing (DTSS) system installed directly on newly replaced tubing in a 5400-ft-deep operational underground gas storage well. The DTSS system uses a single optical fiber to monitor temperature and strain in real-time, providing a cost-effective solution for long-term well integrity assessment. In this study, the strain–stress correlation of the tubing—representative of material behavior analysis—is investigated as a potential method for monitoring tubing integrity throughout its lifetime. Moreover, the DTSS system’s capability to support both continuous and discrete monitoring is evaluated by comparing future data with historical records, enabling the early detection of issues such as material fatigue, corrosion, or deformation. Overall, the work examines the effectiveness and scalability of the DTSS system for real-time monitoring of well operations and integrity in a newly replaced well.
Distributed Strain Sensing↗
An Uncertainty Management Framework for Integrated Gas-Electric Energy Systems
In many parts of the world, electric power systems have seen a significant shift toward generation from renewable energy and natural gas. Because of their ability to flexibly adjust power generation in real time, gas-fired power plants are frequently seen as the perfect partner for variable renewable generation. However, this reliance on gas generation increases interdependence and propagates uncertainty between power grids and gas pipelines and brings coordination and uncertainty management challenges. To address these issues, we propose an uncertainty management framework for uncertain, but bounded gas consumption by gas-fired power plants. The admissible ranges are computed based on a joint optimization problem for the combined gas and electricity networks, which involves chance-constrained scheduling for the electric grid and a novel robust optimization formulation for the natural-gas network. This formulation ensures feasibility of the integrated system with a high probability, while providing a tractable numerical formulation. A key advance with respect to existing methods is that our method is based on a physically accurate, validated model for transient gas pipeline flows. Our case study benchmarks our proposed formulation against methods that ignore how reserve activation impacts the fuel use of gas power plants and only consider predetermined gas consumption. Here, the results demonstrate the importance of considering uncertainty to avoid operating constraint violations and curtailment of gas to the generators.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Integration of Pumped Heat Energy Storage with Fossil-Fired Power Plant (Final Report)
The project team of Southwest Research Institute ® (SwRI ® ), Malta Inc. (Malta), and Luminant Generation Company LLC (Luminant) completed a feasibility study for the integration of a 100-MW, 10-hour (1000-MWh) Malta Pumped Heat Energy Storage (MPHES) system with multiple full-sized fossil-fired electricity generation units (EGU) in Luminant portfolio. MPHES is a long-duration, molten-salt-energy storage technology that uses turbomachinery and heat exchangers to transfer energy to a thermal storage media when charging, and removes the heat in a similar fashion when discharging. With high round trip efficiency (60-65%) and long lifespan (30+ years), MPHES provides economic benefits to the fossil-asset owners that can be scaled to integrate with assets across their portfolio. This technology uses hardware components, workforce personnel, and skillsets similar to those used by fossil EGUs, allowing for synergy when co-locating the two technologies. Luminant has approximately 39,000 megawatts of generation across 12 states, operating in six of the seven competitive markets in the U.S. and powered by a diverse portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, and solar facilities. The DeCordova plant in Granbury, Texas, a simple cycle natural gas peaker power plant, was used as the fossil-fired asset in this project. The local market in Granbury, Texas has many influences, including several nearby power plants, a Luminant-owned nuclear plant (Comanche Peak), and substantial wind energy, which causes both negative pricing at night and high market volatility. Reducing false starts of the DeCordova plant and better responding to market volatility would be an economic advantage. Luminant is currently integrating battery storage plant on site to begin addressing these challenges. Integrating long-duration storage, like MPHES, would expand this capability beyond one hour of storage and have the potential to greatly reduce the total number of gas turbine starts. The MPHES charging requirement could help offset the overnight operating costs of Comanche Peak, which cannot load follow, and the nearby Luminant-owned Wise County combined cycle plant that cycles too often. Following the assessment of Luminant’s ERCOT-based portfolio for integration compatibility with Malta’s PHES system and the project tasks of conceptual study, technoeconomic analysis, technology gap assessment, and commercialization plan, the project team effort has resulted in several key outcomes: (1) Identification of market trends in a high-wind penetration market outside a major metropolitan area; (2) Creation of a dispatching model for the MPHES system and the pairing of Li-ion battery with a gas turbine in a real time market; (3) Revenue and cost estimations for operating MPHES alongside a gas peaker plant with real dispatching considerations and comparison with variations in the Malta implementation, including doubling the storage capacity and using two discharge drivetrains; (4) Potential carbon emission reductions possible by replacing gas turbine operation with Malta PHES operation; and (5) Summary of literature-based future market predictions for Texas.
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
Operando Analysis of Gas Evolution in TiNb 2 O 7 (TNO)-Based Anodes for Advanced High-Energy Lithium-Ion Batteries under Fast Charging
TiNb 2 O 7 (TNO) is regarded as one of the promising next-generation anode materials for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) due to its high rate capabilities, higher theoretical capacity, and higher lithiation voltage. Furthermore, this enables the cycling of TNO-based anodes under extreme fast charging (XFC) conditions with a minimal risk of lithium plating compared to that of graphite anodes. Here, the gas evolution in real time with TNO-based pouch cells is first reported via operando mass spectrometry. The main gases are identified to be CO 2 , C 2 H 4 , and O 2 . A solid–electrolyte interphase is detected on TNO, which continues evolving, forming, and dissolving with the lithiation and delithiation of TNO. The gas evolution can be significantly reduced when a protective coating is applied on the TNO particles, reducing the CO 2 and C 2 H 4 evolution by ~2 and 5 times, respectively, at 0.1C in a half-cell configuration. The reduction on gas generation in full cells is even more pronounced. The surface coating also enables 20% improvement in capacity under XFC conditions.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
JISEA Research Highlight: Integrated Model of Natural Gas Pipelines and the Electricity Grid
This study developed a market-based coordination framework that allows for exchanging information on gas off-takes as well as constraints between a power sector model. This includes unit commitment, economic dispatch, and a dynamic gas network simulation model. The framework was then tested using real power- and gas-system data from Colorado.
coordination↗
Electric Power Grid and Natural Gas Network Operations and Coordination
In this report, we present findings from three studies related to the coordination of natural gas and electricity system operations. We first propose and demonstrate a modeling platform for examining the interdependence of natural gas and electricity networks based on a direct current unit-commitment and economic dispatch model for the power system and a transient hydraulic gas model for the gas system. We use this platform to analyze the value of day-ahead coordination of power and natural gas network operations and to show the importance of considering gas system constraints when analyzing power systems operation with high penetration of gas generators and variable renewable energy sources. In the second study, we utilize our modeling platform to consider the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 809, issued in 2015 to improve day-ahead and intraday coordination of power and gas systems. Finally, in the third study we expand our modeling platform to focus on market-based coordination of electricity and natural gas system operations for a real system, namely a subset of the power and gas networks in the Front Range region of Colorado. We use real system data to evaluate the benefits of coordination operations under different conditions, including different levels of renewable penetration and the use of time-variant, shaped flow nominations. Our results indicate that coordination at various timescales can contribute to a reduction in curtailed gas in high-stress periods (such as those with large ramps in gas offtakes) and a reduction in energy consumption of gas compressor stations. We find that intraday coordination can reduce total power system production costs and natural gas deliverability constraints, yielding cost and reliability benefits. We observe these benefits for the test system as well as in the Colorado case study, where we find that coordination and shaped flows may provide additional value for systems with high penetration of variable renewable energy. Together, these three studies demonstrate a pathway for integrated gas and electricity grid modeling and for studying the benefits of coordinated operations of these increasingly interdependent energy systems.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Membrane Development for CO2 Capture from Steel Manufacturing
The U.S. government is targeting a net-zero carbon-emission economy by 2050, offering an exciting opportunity for membrane-based CO2 capture from various industrial point sources. Given that industrial flue gas has low CO2 partial pressures and high volumetric flow rates, high-permeance membranes are needed to make membrane technology economically viable for large-scale deployment. Thin film composite (TFC) membranes are necessary for this implementation because they can provide high permeance by forming a thin selective layer on top of a porous support. This presentation will report the rational design and fabrication of NETL’s highly permeable non-aging TFCs achieved by: synthesizing a high-performance rubbery selective material; developing a high-porosity membrane support; optimizing coating methods to assemble the two materials into scalable membranes; and scaling up membrane supports and TFCs via a roll-to-roll process. The novel rubbery selective material shows mixed-gas CO2 permeability of 930 Barrer and CO2/N2 selectivity of 44, exceeding the 2008 Robeson upper bound. The resulting TFCs yield remarkably high CO2 permeance of 4,500 GPU and CO2/N2 selectivity of 34 at 23ºC. Moreover, the TFCs exhibit not only excellent performance stability (or non-aging behavior) for 1,000 hours in the lab, but also maintain their separation properties in a 700-hour field test at the U.S. DOE’s National Carbon Capture Center using real humid flue gas.
Tran, Thien↗
Development and Test of High Temperature Surface Acoustic Wave Gas Sensors
The demand for sensors in hostile environments, such as power plant environments, aerospace environments, oil and gas extraction, and high-temperature metallurgy environments, has risen over the past decades in a continuous attempt to increase process control, improve energy and process efficiency in production, reduce operational and maintenance costs, increase safety, and perform condition-based maintenance in equipment and structures operating in high-temperature harsh-environment conditions. The increased reliability, improved performance, and development of new sensors and networks with a multitude of components, especially wireless networks, are the target for operation in harsh environments. Gas sensors, in particular H2 sensors, operating above 200 C are required in the instrumentation, process control and general safety of a number of industries including coal, natural gas, and nuclear power generation facilities, the aerospace and automotive industries, metallurgical production and defense-related applications. The surface acoustic wave (SAW) platform is a particularly promising option for high-temperature, harsh-environment gas sensing applications since the platform exhibits advantages, such as battery-free and wireless operation, small size, possibility for scale production using well-developed technologies from the semiconductor industry, and low cost of installation and operation. In this work, one-port SAW resonators (SAWRs) operating along five different orientations on a commercially available langasite (LGS) wafer employing Pt-Al2O3 electrodes and reflectors were designed, fabricated, and used as high-temperature H2 sensors. Two of the selected orientations were predicted and confirmed to have temperature-compensated operation above 150 C. A gas sensor test setup was developed, capable of gas cycling between N2, O2 and N2/H2 mixtures under extended high-temperature periods (up to 650 C for over 20 hours). Thin film Pt-Al2O3 was used as the electrode material for the transducers and reflectors capable of high-temperature operation, and also as H2 sensing film. In addition, yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) thin films with Pt decoration were tested as sensing films aimed to enhance the SAWR sensor response to H2. The SAW devices were monitored in excess of 1700 hours in real-time during gas cycling sequences up to 600 C, leading to the following findings: i) the Pt-Al2O3 electrodes performed better for H2 sensing than the Pt-decorated YSZ sensing film, showing as much as 50% higher frequency variation response in the 200 C to 400 C range; ii) different crystallographic orientations operating on the same LGS wafer experienced different responses to H2 exposures up to 500 C; iii) the surface oxidation state of the SAWR sensors was shown to have an important impact on subsequent H2 exposure responses. In addition, a sensor system employing two LGS SAWRs, aligned along two different orientations, has been developed to simultaneously determine H2 presence and temperature. Finally, wireless interrogation of a SAWR sensor was successful within the gas cycling test fixture, and successful wireless H2 detection was achieved above 400 C.
Ayes Moncada, Armando↗
Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development (Final Report)
Working with the Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed a system to identify methane leaks reliably, accurately, and autonomously at critical midstream sections of the natural gas distribution network in real- time for the purpose of mitigating methane emissions using Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras. SwRI’s Smart Leak Detection – Methane (SLED/M) adds a high degree of automation to the process of methane leak detection to minimize sources of human error, minimize response time to a leak event, and maximize midstream visibility. Furthermore, SwRI has been working towards integrating Quantitative OGI (QOGI) capabilities into this existing technology. By leveraging Deep Learning, SwRI now has the capability to estimate fugitive emission leak rates quickly and reliably, which allows operators to detect emissions, quantify leak rate, prioritize repairs, and validate the repairs in a single instrument. The next generation QOGI technology leverages the same cameras used in Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs, with improvements in safety and speed for traditional quantification-based repairs, ultimately leading to less overhead cost for the operators. The goals for this research were to develop two types of models with the following goals: 1. Run in real-time on the edge (≥ 12 Hz) 2. Classification: Achieve less than 5% false positive detection 3. Classification: Achieve ≥ 95% methane plume detection rate 4. Regression: achieve ≤ 10 standard cubic feet per hour (scfh) prediction > 70% of the time In order to achieve these results, multiple infrared (IR) and other sensors were investigated in tandem with the midwave IR (MWIR) OGI to provide additional information to train the underlying models. Information on atmospheric conditions including humidity, temperature, pressure, and solar radiation was provided by a weather station. Several machine learning and deep learning architectures and methods, including looking at quantized classification networks and regressions networks, were explored. As further data was collected, curated, and labeled, it allowed for more refined regressive networks to be adequately trained, leading to better insight into the true flow rates being observed. An important valuable deliverable of this research effort was the development of an advanced network which underwent multiple iterations capable of giving a continuous output. The current network has a predicted mean average percentage error (MAPE) of 12.3% just outside our target goal of 10.00%, but an accuracy of 97.78% at ±50 scfh, well within the overall goal for the Department of Energy (DOE) program. Upon closer inspection, it was observed that more than 10% of datapoints contributing to the MAPE predictions were the result of low flow rate predictions and are beyond the sensitivity of instrument measurement as a result of normal operational variation and noise.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Produced Water Desalination via Pervaporative Distillation
Herein, we report on the performance of a hybrid organic-ceramic hydrophilic pervaporation membrane applied in a vacuum membrane distillation operating mode to desalinate laboratory prepared saline waters and a hypersaline water modeled after a real oil and gas produced water. The rational for performing “pervaporative distillation” is that highly contaminated waters like produced water, reverse osmosis concentrates and industrial have high potential to foul and scale membranes, and for traditional porous membrane distillation membranes they can suffer pore-wetting and complete salt passage. In most of these processes, the hard to treat feed water is commonly softened and filtered prior to a desalination process. This study evaluates pervaporative distillation performance treating: (1) NaCl solutions from 10 to 240 g/L at crossflow Reynolds numbers from 300 to 4800 and feed-temperatures from 60 to 85 °C and (2) a real produced water composition chemically softened to reduce its high-scale forming mineral content. The pervaporative distillation process proved highly-effective at desalting all feed streams, consistently delivering <10 mg/L of dissolved solids in product water under all operating condition tested with reasonably high permeate fluxes (up to 23 LMH) at optimized operating conditions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗