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NASA NTRS2008

To What Extent Can Vegetation Mitigate Greenhouse Warming? A Modeling Approach

Climate models participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report indicate that under a 2xCO2 environment, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We postulate that the increase in precipitation associated with the increase in CO2 is also increasing vegetation density, which may already be feeding back onto climate. Including this feedback in a climate model simulation resulted in precipitation and runoff trends consistent with observations and reduced the warming by 0.6OC overland. This unaccounted for missing water may be linked to about 10% of the missing land carbon sink. A recent compilation of outputs from 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows projected increases in air temperature, precipitation and river discharge for 24 major rivers in the world in response to doubling CO2 by the end of the century (1). The ensemble mean from these models also indicates that, compared to their respective baselines overland, the global mean of the runoff change would increase faster (8.9% per year) than that of the precipitation (5% per year). We analyze century-scale observed annual runoff time-series (1901-2002) over 9 hydrological units covering large regions of the Eastern United States (Fig.1) compiled by the United States Geological Survey (USGS)(2). These regions were selected because they are the most forested; the least water-limited and are not under extensive irrigation. We compare these time-series to similar time-series of observed annual precipitation anomalies spanning the period 1900-1995 (3). Both time-series exhibit a positive longterm trend (Fig. 2); however, in contrast to the analysis of (I), these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increase is 5.5 % per year, roughly double the rate of runoff increase of 3.1 % per year.

Bounoua, L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Ignition and combustion of lunar propellants

The ignition and combustion of Al, Mg, and Al/Mg alloy particles in 99 percent O2/1 percent N2 mixtures is investigated at high temperatures and pressures for rocket engine applications. The 20 micron particles contain 0, 5, 10, 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 weight percent Mg alloyed with Al, and are ignited in oxygen using the reflected shock in a shock tube near the endwall. Using this technique, the ignition delay and combustion times of the particles are measured at temperatures up to 3250 K as a function of Mg content for oxygen pressures of 8.5, 17, and 34 atm. An ignition model is developed which employs a simple lumped capacitance energy equation and temperature and pressure dependent particle and gas properties. Good agreement is achieved between the measured and predicted trends in the ignition delay times. For the particles investigated, the contribution of heterogeneous reaction to the heating of the particle is found to be significant at lower temperatures, but may be neglected as gas temperatures above 3000 K. As little as 10 percent Mg reduces the ignition delay time substantially at all pressures tested. The particle ignition delay times decrease with increasing Mg content, and this reduction becomes less pronounced as oxidizer temperature and pressure are increased.

Burton, Rodney L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Application of Satellite-Derived, High-Resolution Land Use/Land Cover Data to Improve Urban Air Quality Model Forecasts

Local and state agencies are responsible for developing state implementation plans to meet National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Numerical models used for this purpose simulate the transport and transformation of criteria pollutants and their precursors. The specification of land use/land cover (LULC) plays an important role in controlling modeled surface meteorology and emissions. NASA researchers have worked with partners and Atlanta stakeholders to incorporate an improved high-resolution LULC dataset for the Atlanta area within their modeling system and to assess meteorological and air quality impacts of Urban Heat Island (UHI) mitigation strategies. The new LULC dataset provides a more accurate representation of land use, has the potential to improve model accuracy, and facilitates prediction of LULC changes. Use of the new LULC dataset for two summertime episodes improved meteorological forecasts, with an existing daytime cold bias of approx. equal to 3 C reduced by 30%. Model performance for ozone prediction did not show improvement. In addition, LULC changes due to Atlanta area urbanization were predicted through 2030, for which model simulations predict higher urban air temperatures. The incorporation of UHI mitigation strategies partially offset this warming trend. The data and modeling methods used are generally applicable to other U.S. cities.

Quattrochi, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Synchronous NDVI and Surface Air Temperature Trends in Newfoundland: 1982 to 2003

The northern regions of the earth are currently experiencing rapid change in temperature and precipitation. This region contains -40% of carbon stored in the world's soil which has accumulated from the last ice age (over 10,000 years ago). The carbon has remained to this point due to reduced decomposition from the short growing seasons and subfreezing temperatures. The influence of climate upon plant growth can have significant consequences to the carbon cycle balance in this region and could potentially alter and release this long term store of carbon to the atmosphere, resulting in a negative feedback enhancing climate warming. These changes have the potential to alter ecosystems processes, which impact human well being. This paper investigated a global satellite record of increases in vegetation growth from 1982 to 2003 developed at GSFC. It was found that, Newfoundland's vegetation growth during the 1990s exceeded global measurements. A number of potential causes were investigated to understand the mechanistic environmental drivers that could alter the productivity of this ecosystem. Possible drivers of change included: human influence of land use change on vegetation cover; changes in precipitation; temperature; cloud cover; snow cover; and growing season length. We found that humans had a minimal influence on vegetation growth in Newfoundland. Less than 6% of the island was logged during the investigation. We found a strong correlation of vegetation growth to a lengthening of the growing season of -9 and -17 days from 1982-1990 and 1991-1999. A distinct drop in plant growth and air temperature was found in 1990 to 1991 from the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo that reduced global surface air temperatures. These results document the influences of air temperature upon northern forest plant growth and the cooling effects of major volcanic eruptions in this ecological system.

Neigh, C. S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

Trends↗

NASA NTRS1988

The evolution of AAOE observed constituents with the polar vortex

One of the difficulties in determining constituent trends from the ER-2 flight data is the large amount of day to day variability generated by the motion of the polar vortex. To reduce this variability, the observations have been transformed into the conservative (Lagrangian) reference frames consisting of the coordinate pairs, potential temperature (PT) and potential vorticity (PV), or PT and N2O. The requirement of only two independent coordinates rests on the assumption that constituent distributions and their chemical processes are nearly zonal in that coordinate system. Flight data is used everywhere for these transformation except for potential vorticity. Potential vorticity is determined from level flight segments, and NMC PV values during flight dives and takeoffs are combined with flight data in a smooth fashion.

Schoeberl, Mark R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Temperature and Snow-Mediated Moisture Controls of Summer Photosynthetic Activity in Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems Between 1982 and 2011

Recent warming has stimulated the productivity of boreal and Arctic vegetation by reducing temperature limitations. However, several studies have hypothesized that warming may have also increased moisture limitations because of intensified summer drought severity. Establishing the connections between warming and drought stress has been difficult because soil moisture observations are scarce. Here we use recently developed gridded datasets of moisture variability to investigate the links between warming and changes in available soil moisture and summer vegetation photosynthetic activity at northern latitudes (greater than 45N) based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) since 1982. Moisture and temperature exert a significant influence on the inter-annual variability of summer NDVI over about 29% (mean r(sup 2) = 0.29 +/ 0.16) and 43% (mean r(sup 2 = 0.25 +/- 0.12) of the northern vegetated land, respectively. Rapid summer warming since the late 1980s (approximately 0.7deg C) has increased evapotranspiration demand and consequently summer drought severity, but contrary to earlier suggestions it has not changed the dominant climate controls of NDVI over time. Furthermore, changes in snow dynamics (accumulation and melting) appear to be more important than increased evaporative demand in controlling changes in summer soil moisture availability and NDVI in moisture-sensitive regions of the boreal forest. In boreal North America, forest NDVI declines are more consistent with reduced snowpack rather than with temperature-induced increases in evaporative demand as suggested in earlier studies. Moreover, summer NDVI variability over about 28% of the northern vegetated land is not significantly associated with moisture or temperature variability, yet most of this land shows increasing NDVI trends. These results suggest that changes in snow accumulation and melt, together with other possibly non-climatic factors are likely to play a significant role in modulating regional ecosystem responses to the projected warming and increase in evapotranspiration demand during the coming decades.

Snowpack↗

NASA NTRS2008

Challenges and New Trends for Piezoelectric Actuators

BiScO3-PbTiO3 ceramics with TC greater than 400 C has been successfully processed. Despite the increase in TC, excess Pb addition increases both the bulk conductivity and the grain boundary contribution to conductivity at elevated temperatures. Conductivity at elevated temperatures, that limits the operating temperature for actuators, has been greatly reduced by excess Bi additions. Excess Bi doping improves poling conditions resulting in enhanced piezoelectric coefficient (d(sub 33) = 408 pC/N).

Sehirlioglu, Alp↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Ambient Inert Gas Properties on Cool-Flame Combustion of Normal-Alkane Droplets in Microgravity

Cool-flame-supported quasi-steady droplet combustion was first observed during droplet combustion experiments conducted onboard the International Space Station (ISS) in the Combustion Integrated Rack (CIR) with n-alkane fuels. These cool flames, not visible to the naked eye, result from the existence of the negative-temperature-coefficient (NTC) region during the combustion n-alkane fuels when the chemical-kinetic pathways experience a transition from the low-temperature chemistry to the normal, high-temperature-controlled chemistry. In this study, we present results for the cool-flame-supported droplet burning rates and extinction diameters for n-alkane fuels (n-heptane, n-octane, n-decane, and n-dodecane) in inert-diluent-substituted ambient environments. In these ISS experiments, some of the nitrogen in the ambient gas mixture is replaced by an inert gas, namely, carbon dioxide, helium, or xenon. Different diluents were observed to exert remarkably different influences on the cool-flame combustion of fuel droplets. The results show that the cool-flame extinction diameter is drastically increased with helium dilution compared to N2, CO2 or Xe, and Xe dilution leads to longer burning with a smaller extinction diameter. Unlike hot flames, the cool-flame burning rates are controlled by the cool-flame temperature established in the NTC region by the chemical kinetics, rather than by equilibrium thermodynamics, and the thermo-physical properties of the ambient gases, which control the heat feed back to the liquid droplet. The cool-flame extinction is triggered by the instability that occurs at the low-temperature end of the NTC region, below which cool diffusion flames become statically unstable. A quasi-steady theoretical model, presented earlier, which involves a six-step reduced-chemistry mechanism, valid around the lower end of the NTC region, is shown to explain the observed experimental trends qualitatively.

microgravity↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc.), especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated) where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax) as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982-2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation) and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation). Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2-4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread increases in pasture productivity over the last 30 years.

ecosystems↗

NASA NTRS1996

Thermal signatures of urban land cover types: High-resolution thermal infrared remote sensing of urban heat island in Huntsville, AL

The main objective of this research is to apply airborne high-resolution thermal infrared imagery for urban heat island studies, using Huntsville, AL, a medium-sized American city, as the study area. The occurrence of urban heat islands represents human-induced urban/rural contrast, which is caused by deforestation and the replacement of the land surface by non-evaporating and non-porous materials such as asphalt and concrete. The result is reduced evapotranspiration and more rapid runoff of rain water. The urban landscape forms a canopy acting as a transitional zone between the atmosphere and the land surface. The composition and structure of this canopy have a significant impact on the thermal behavior of the urban environment. Research on the trends of surface temperature at rapidly growing urban sites in the United States during the last 30 to 50 years suggests that significant urban heat island effects have caused the temperatures at these sites to rise by 1 to 2 C. Urban heat islands have caused changes in urban precipitation and temperature that are at least similar to, if not greater than, those predicted to develop over the next 100 years by global change models. Satellite remote sensing, particularly NOAA AVHRR thermal data, has been used in the study of urban heat islands. Because of the low spatial resolution (1.1 km at nadir) of the AVHRR data, these studies can only examine and map the phenomenon at the macro-level. The present research provides the rare opportunity to utilize 5-meter thermal infrared data acquired from an airplane to characterize more accurately the thermal responses of different land cover types in the urban landscape as input to urban heat island studies.

Lo, Chor Pang↗

NASA NTRS1986

Constitutive modelling of single crystal and directionally solidified superalloys

The trend towards improved engine efficiency and durability places increasing demands on materials that operate in the hot section of the gas turbine engine. These demands are being met by new coatings and materials such as single crystal and directionally solidified nickel-base superalloys which have greater creep/fatigue resistance at elevated temperatures and reduced susceptibility to grain boundary creep, corrosion and oxidation than conventionally cast alloys. Work carried out as part of a research program aimed at the development of constitutive equations to describe the elevated temperature stress-strain-time behavior of single crystal and directionally solidified turbine blade superalloys is discussed. The program involves both development of suitable constitutive models and their verification through elevated temperature tension-torsion testing of single crystals of PWA 1480.

Jordan, E. H.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A parametric heat transfer study for cryogenic ball bearings in SSME HPOTP

A numerical modeling is to examine the effects of coolant convective heat transfer coefficient and frictional heating on the local temperature characteristics of a ball element in Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) High Pressure Oxidizer Turbopump (HPOTP) bearing. The present modeling uses a control-volume based, finite-difference method to solve the non-dimensionalized heat conduction equation in spherical coordinate system. The dimensionless temperature is found as a function of Biot number, heat flux ratio between the two race contacts, and location in the ball. The current results show that, for a given cooling capability, the ball temperature generally increases almost linearly with the heat input from the race-contacts. This increase is always very high at one of the two contacts. An increase in heat transfer coefficient generally reduces the ball temperature and alleviates the temperature gradient, except for the regions very close to the race contacts. For a 10-fold increase of heat transfer coefficient, temperature decrease is 35 percent for the average over entire ball, and 10 percent at the inner-race contact. The corresponding change of temperature gradient displays opposing trends between the regions immediately adjacent to the contacts and the remaining portion of the ball. The average temperature gradient in the vicinity of both contacts increases approximately 70 to 100 percent. A higher temperature gradient produces excessive thermal stress locally which may be detrimental to the material integrity. This, however, is the only unfavorable issue for an increase of heat transfer coefficient.

Chyu, Mingking K.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'

In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability.

climate↗

NASA NTRS2014

CMIP5 Historical Simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2

Observations of climate change during the CMIP5 extended historical period (1850-2012) are compared to trends simulated by six versions of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 Earth System Model. The six models are constructed from three versions of the ModelE2 atmospheric general circulation model, distinguished by their treatment of atmospheric composition and the aerosol indirect effect, combined with two ocean general circulation models, HYCOM and Russell. Forcings that perturb the model climate during the historical period are described. Five-member ensemble averages from each of the six versions of ModelE2 simulate trends of surface air temperature, atmospheric temperature, sea ice and ocean heat content that are in general agreement with observed trends, although simulated warming is slightly excessive within the past decade. Only simulations that include increasing concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases match the warming observed during the twentieth century. Differences in twentieth-century warming among the six model versions can be attributed to differences in climate sensitivity, aerosol and ozone forcing, and heat uptake by the deep ocean. Coupled models with HYCOM export less heat to the deep ocean, associated with reduced surface warming in regions of deepwater formation, but greater warming elsewhere at high latitudes along with reduced sea ice. All ensembles show twentieth-century annular trends toward reduced surface pressure at southern high latitudes and a poleward shift of the midlatitude westerlies, consistent with observations.

ocean heat content↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Impact on Simulated Storm Structure and Intensity of Variations in the Lifted Condensation Level and the Level of Free Convection

The sensitivities of convective storm structure and intensity to changes in the altitudes of the prestorm environmental lifted condensation level and level of free convection axe studied using a full-physics three-dimensional cloud model. Matrices of simulations are conducted for a range of LCL=LFC altitudes, using a single moderately-sheared curved hodograph trace in conjunction with 1 convective available potential energy values of either 800 or 2000 J/kg, with the matrices consisting of all four combinations of two distinct choices of buoyancy and shear profile shape. For each value of CAPE, the LCL=LFC altitudes are also allowed to vary in a series of simulations based on the most highly compressed buoyancy and shear profiles for that CAPE, with the environmental buoyancy profile shape, subcloud equivalent potential temperature, subcloud lapse rates of temperature and moisture, and wind profile held fixed. For each CAPE, one final simulation is conducted using a near optimal LFC, but a lowered LCL, with a neutrally buoyant environmental thermal profile specified in between. Results show that, for the buoyancy-starved small-CAPE environments, the simulated storms are supercells and are generally largest and most intense when LCL=LFC altitudes lie in the approximate range 1.5-2.5 km above the surface. The simulations show similar trends for the shear-starved large-CAPE environments, except that conversion from supercell to multicell morphology frequently occurs when the LCL is high. For choices of LCL=LFC height within the optimal 1.5-2.5 km range, peak storm updraft overturning efficiency may approaches unity relative to parcel theory, while for lower LCL=LFC heights, overturning efficiency is reduced significantly. The enhancements of overturning efficiency and updraft diameter with increasing LFC height are shown to be the result of systematic increases in the mean equivalent potential temperature of the updraft at cloud base. For the shear-starved environments, the tendency for outflow dominance is eliminated, but a large overturning efficiency maintained, when a low LCL is used in conjunction with a high LFC. The result regarding outflow dominance at high LCL is consistent with expectations, but the beneficial effect of a high LFC on convective overturning efficiency has not previously been widely recognized. The simulation findings here also appear to be consistent with statistics from previous severe storm environment climatologies, but provide a new framework for interpreting those statistics.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1973

A mathematical model for jet engine combustor pollutant emissions

Mathematical modeling for the description of the origin and disposition of combustion-generated pollutants in gas turbines is presented. A unified model in modular form is proposed which includes kinetics, recirculation, turbulent mixing, multiphase flow effects, swirl and secondary air injection. Subelements of the overall model were applied to data relevant to laboratory reactors and practical combustor configurations. Comparisons between the theory and available data show excellent agreement for basic CO/H2/Air chemical systems. For hydrocarbons the trends are predicted well including higher-than-equilibrium NO levels within the fuel rich regime. Although the need for improved accuracy in fuel rich combustion is indicated, comparisons with actual jet engine data in terms of the effect of combustor-inlet temperature is excellent. In addition, excellent agreement with data is obtained regarding reduced NO emissions with water droplet and steam injection.

Boccio, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Rewetting of Monogroove Heat Pipe in Space Station Radiators

Experimental investigation of the rewetting characteristics of a uniformly heated grooved surface was performed, the results of which are presented in this work. It was found that, for a rewetting fluid of 2-propanol, the rewetting temperature was approx. 93-96 C for the upward-facing case and about 2 C lower for the downwardfacing case. When the initial plate temperature was higher than the rewetting temperature, the rewetting speed decreased with the initial plate temperature. The rewetting speed is also faster in the upward-facing case than in the downward-facing case for the same initial plate temperatures, which indicates a gravitational effect on rewetting. This trend is found to be consistent with the previously investigated end heating condition. The rewetting distance that is predicted by the conduction controlled model is found to be in fair agreement with the experimental data. Also, an apparatus that enables experiments to be performed in a reduced gravitational environment has been built and experiments are currently being performed. The design of this apparatus is presented along with preliminary data.

Chan, S. H.↗