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DOE OSTI2022

Characterization of a hard X-ray self-seeding diamond crystal orientation

We present a method to accurately control the photon energies for hard X-ray Self-seeding schemes with a single crystal monochromator in transmissive geometry. The energy calibration is performed by measuring which pairs of the machine pitch and yaw angles for different crystallographic planes reflect the X-ray at the same wavelength. The free parameters of an analytical formula for the self-seeding energies are determined by fitting the observed intersections and the normalized derivative with respect to the pitch and yaw angles in the observed intersections. The method requires a hard X-ray spectrometer, but it does not rely on its absolute energy calibration. Instead, identifying the self-seeded energies above the SASE background or the monochromatic notches within the SASE bandwidth is sufficient for the calibration.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

High temporal resolution estimates of Arctic snowfall rates emphasizing gauge and radar-based retrievals from the MOSAiC expedition

This article presents the results of snowfall rate and accumulation estimates from a vertically pointing 35-GHz radar and other sensors deployed during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. The radar-based retrievals are the most consistent in terms of data availability and are largely immune to blowing snow. The total liquid-equivalent accumulation during the snow accumulation season is around 110 mm, with more abundant precipitation during spring months. About half of the total accumulation came from weak snowfall with rates less than approximately 0.2 mmh–1. The total snowfall estimates from a Vaisala optical sensor aboard the icebreaker are similar to those from radar retrievals, though their daily and monthly accumulations and instantaneous rates varied significantly. Compared to radar retrievals and the icebreaker optical sensor data, measurements from an identical optical sensor at an ice camp are biased high. Blowing snow effects, in part, explain differences. Weighing gauge measurements significantly overestimate snowfall during February–April 2020 as compared to other sensors and are not well suited for estimating instantaneous snowfall rates. The icebreaker optical disdrometer estimates of snowfall rates are, on average, relatively little biased compared to radar retrievals when raw particle counts are available and appropriate snowflake mass-size relations are used. These counts, however, are not available during periods that produced more than a third of the total snowfall. While there are uncertainties in the radar-based retrievals due to the choice of reflectivity-snowfall rate relations, the major error contributor is the uncertainty in the radar absolute calibration. The MOSAiC radar calibration is evaluated using comparisons with other radars and liquid water cloud–drizzle processes observed during summer. Overall, this study describes a consistent, radar-based snowfall rate product for MOSAiC that provides significant insight into Central Arctic snowfall and can be used for many other purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Axion Dark Matter EXperiment 2A Cavity Characterization

We cooled the ADMX 2A cavities down to 5K and found the Q-factors for various tunings, which were about a factor of five larger than the Q-factors from the previous cooldown. We also found that the tuning mechanism with the piezo motor and gearbox is not currently equipped to handle cryogenic temperatures. We created an experimental warm bead pull setup using piezo motors, an alumina bead, a pulley system, and a distance calibrating script. We found that the bead pull method can successfully show us the reflection-induced electric field mode structure. This technique allowed us to differentiate between different TE and TM modes near mode crossings. However, some bead pull sweeps produced noisy or asymmetrical results, possibly due to asymmetries in the tuning rod orientation or antenna. Future iterations of the bead pull method can help us estimate the cavity form factor and maximize our scan range near mode crossings.

Maglione, D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

X-ray beam monitoring and wavelength calibration using four-beam diffraction

Rigorous dynamical theory calculations show that four-beam diffraction (4BD) can be activated only by a unique photon energy and a unique incidence direction. Thus, 4BD may be used to precisely calibrate X-ray photon energies and beam positions. Based on the principles that the forbidden-reflection 4BD pattern, which is typically an X-shaped cross, can be generated by instant imaging using the divergent beam from a point source without rocking the crystal, a detailed real-time high-resolution beam (and source) position monitoring scheme is illustrated for monitoring two-dimensional beam positions and directions of modern synchrotron light sources, X-ray free-electron lasers and nano-focused X-ray sources.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Developing an Automated Microscopic Traffic Simulation Scenario Generation Tool

Traffic simulation is an effective tool for urban planners, traffic engineers, and researchers to study traffic. In particular, microscopic traffic simulation, which simulates individual vehicles’ movements within a transportation network, has demonstrated its importance in analyzing and managing transportation systems. However, integrating data from various sources, generating traffic scenarios, and importing information into traffic simulators to conduct microscopic simulations have always been a challenge. This paper presents a solution to overcome this challenge: RealTwin, a comprehensive tool for automated scenario generation for microscopic traffic simulation. Following a streamlined scenario generation and calibration workflow, RealTwin effectively bridges gaps between traffic data from various sources and traffic simulators, making microscopic traffic simulation more accessible for researchers and engineers across various levels of expertise. Using RealTwin to generate a real-world traffic scenario in Simulation of Urban Mobility (SUMO), VISSIM, and AIMSUN, RealTwin’s ability is demonstrated in the construction of realistic and consistent traffic scenarios in different simulators. Furthermore, this paper introduces and illustrates RealTwin’s capability for technology (e.g., autonomous vehicle) scenario generation. This feature can contribute to more comprehensive microscopic simulations, facilitating the analysis of potential effects of various technological innovations on mobility, energy efficiency, and safety. Finally, RealTwin is used to calibrate a simulation in SUMO. In conclusion, the calibration module enhances RealTwin’s ability to generate consistent simulations across different platforms and more realistic simulations that reflect real-world traffic operations.

autonomous vehicle↗

DOE OSTI2026

Kinematic and dynamical origins of mean-p T fluctuations in heavy-ion collisions

Event-by-event fluctuations of the mean transverse momentum (mean-p T ) provide a sensitive probe of collective dynamics beyond single-particle spectra and anisotropic flow. We present a systematic study of mean-p T fluctuation observables using a Bayesian-calibrated multistage hydrodynamic framework, including quantitative comparisons to RHIC measurements and model-based investigations of beam-energy and kinematic-acceptance effects. The experimental definitions employed by the STAR and ALICE Collaborations are implemented explicitly and found to yield consistent results within controlled limits. We study the centrality and beam-energy dependence of the observable, its sensitivity to key soft-sector ingredients, and the impact of the kinematic p T acceptance. By introducing scaled-p T cuts, we demonstrate that a part of the apparent energy dependence arises from kinematic projection effects, while the remaining trends reflect genuine collective dynamics. Our results establish mean-p T fluctuations as a nontrivial and independent validation of calibrated hydrodynamic descriptions of the quark–gluon plasma.

Event-by-event correlations↗

DOE OSTI2026

Second Harmonic Generation Electric Field Triplet Interferometry for Absolute Phasing

We report second harmonic generation (SHG) electric field triplet interferometry performed using three mutually coherent ultrafast pulses in a common path with controllable relative phases, namely, the light fields of a sample signal (SI), a reference oscillator (RO), and a local oscillator (LO). The ROLO phase determined from the interference of the light fields produced by two quartz wafers is subtracted from the phase determined from the SIROLO interferogram to yield the signal phase, ϕ SI . The new method also calibrates the measured SHG intensity from a given sample internally by sending the fundamental light field reflected from the sample into one of the quartz wafers in the ROLO element. The approach avoids having to exchange the sample against a reference material with a known χ(2) value or known phase and accounts on-the-fly for situations where the reflected fundamental light field intensity changes with experimental conditions. The new method is successfully benchmarked against z-cut α-quartz, fused silica held at its point of zero charge, and hematite nanolayers in air, across three different interferometers. Furthermore, the approach should be applicable for other second-order nonlinear spectroscopies, such as vibrational or electronic sum-frequency generation.

Interfaces↗

DOE OSTI2021

The influence of tillage and fertilizer on the flux and source of nitrous oxide with reference to atmospheric variation using laser spectroscopy

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is the third most important long-lived greenhouse gas and agriculture is the largest source of N 2 O emissions. Curbing N 2 O emissions requires understanding influences on the flux and sources of N 2 O. We measured flux and evaluated microbial sources of N 2 O using site preference ( S P ; the intramolecular distribution of 15 N in N 2 O) in flux chambers from a grassland tilling and agricultural fertilization experiments and atmosphere. We identified values greater than that of the average atmosphere to reflect nitrification and/or fungal denitrification and those lower than atmosphere as increased denitrification. Our spectroscopic approach was based on an extensive calibration with 18 standards that yielded S P accuracy and reproducibility of 0.7 ‰ and 1.0 ‰, respectively, without preconcentration. Chamber samples from the tilling experiment taken ~ monthly over a year showed a wide range in N 2 O flux (0–1.9 g N 2 O-N ha -1 d -1 ) and S P (- 1.8 to 25.1 ‰). Flux and S P were not influenced by tilling but responded to sampling date. Large fluxes occurred in October and May in no-till when soils were warm and moist and during a spring thaw, an event likely representing release of N 2 O accumulated under snow cover. These high fluxes could not be ascribed to a single microbial process as S P differed among chambers. However, the year-long S P and flux data for no-till showed a slight direct relationship suggesting that nitrification increased with flux. The comparative data in till showed an inverse relationship indicating that high flux events are driven by denitrification. Corn ( Zea mays ) showed high fluxes and S P values indicative of nitrification ~ 4 wk after fertilization with subsequent declines in S P indicating denitrification. Although there was no effect of fertilizer treatment on flux or S P in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum) , high fluxes occurred ~1 month after fertilization. In both treatments, S P was indicative of denitrification in many instances, but evidence of nitrification/fungal denitrification also prevailed. At 2 m atmospheric N 2 O S P had a range of 31.1 ‰ and 14.6 ‰ in the grassland tilling and agricultural fertilization experiments, respectively. These data suggest the influence of soil microbial processes on atmospheric N 2 O and argue against the use of the global average atmospheric S P in isotopic modeling approaches.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Calibration improvements expand filterscope diagnostic use

The filterscope diagnostic on DIII-D utilizes photomultiplier tubes to measure visible light emission from the plasma. The system has undergone a substantial upgrade since previous attempts to cross-calibrate the filterscope with other spectroscopic diagnostics were unsuccessful. The optics now utilize a dichroic mirror to initially split the light at nearly 99% transmission or reflectance for light below or above 550 nm. This allows the system to measure D α emission without degrading visible light emission from the plasma for wavelengths below 550 nm (to measure D β , D γ , W–I, C-III, etc.). Additional optimization of the optical components and calibration techniques reduce the error in the signal up to 10% in some channels compared to previous methods. Cross-calibration measurements with two other high resolution spectroscopic diagnostics now show excellent agreement for the first time. This expands the capabilities of the filterscope system allowing measurement of divertor detachment, emission profiles, edge-localized mode behavior, and plasma–wall interactions. Additionally, it enables direct comparisons against calculations from boundary plasma simulations. These were not possible before.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d -1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d -1 ), 0.777 d -1 (0.716 to 0.838 d -1 ), and 0.450 d -1 (0.378 to 0.522 d -1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wet-radome attenuation in ARM cloud radars and its utilization in radar calibration using disdrometer measurements

Abstract. A relative calibration technique has been developed for the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Ka-band ARM Zenith Radars (KAZRs). This method uses the signal attenuation caused by water on the radome to estimate reflectivity factor (Ze) offsets. The wet-radome attenuation (WRA) is assumed to follow a log-linear relationship with rainfall rate during light and moderate rain, as measured by a collocated surface disdrometer. The technique has an uncertainty of approximately 3 dB, due to factors such as disdrometer measurement error, rain variability between radar and disdrometer sample volumes, and the fitting function's uncertainty for the WRA behavior. A practical advantage of this WRA-based approach to shorter-wavelength radar monitoring is that, while it requires a reference disdrometer, it proves feasible for a wider range of collocated disdrometer measurements compared to traditional direct disdrometer comparison at the onset of light rain. This technique thus offers a cost-effective monitoring tool for remote or long-term radar deployments. This calibration technique was applied during the ARM Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) from October 2021 through September 2022. The estimated Ze offsets were compared against traditional radar calibration and monitoring methods using available datasets from this campaign. Results show that the WRA-based offsets align closely with mean offsets found between cloud radars and from direct disdrometer comparison near the onset of rain, while also reflecting similar offset and campaign-long trends when compared to collocated, independently calibrated radar wind profilers. Nevertheless, overall, the KAZR Ze offsets estimated during TRACER remained stable at approximately 2 dB lower than the disdrometer estimates from the campaign start until the end of June 2022; afterward, the offsets increased to around 7 dB by the campaign's end. This increase is linked to a drop of about 1 dB in transmitter power toward the end of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of bank vegetation impacts on the flood flow field in the American River, California, using large‐eddy simulations

Bank vegetation plays a key role in both hydrodynamics and morphodynamics of natural rivers; however, these effects are often unaccounted for in the computational flow dynamics of natural waterways. Recent studies using the large‐eddy simulation (LES), however, have attempted to gain insights into the impacts of bank vegetation on the mean flow field of the natural rivers using a vegetation model, which applies a sink term to the momentum equations of motion. This approach accounts for the effects of the vegetation and provides a practical approach to account for the complex patches of bank vegetation in large‐scale rivers. To implement the vegetation model, a drag coefficient reflecting the overall resistance of vegetal structures to the flow is needed, but due to the lack of calibrated data and range of size, density and type of vegetation, this parameter can be a significant source of uncertainty in the model results. Here, in this study, we use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to investigate the hydrodynamics and bed shear results when a bank vegetation is incorporated in an LES model. To this end, we used the polynomial chaos expansion and Monte Carlo sampling techniques to determine the uncertainties associated with the drag coefficient in the vegetation model and from uncertainties in the bed roughness and inflow discharge. The UQ analysis provided spatially varying confidence levels for the spanwise and vertical distribution of velocity magnitude and for the bed shear stress distributions. In addition, Sobol indices were computed to indicate the relative influence that each parameter had on the overall uncertainty. In general, it was found that uncertainty in flow discharge was the dominant source of uncertainty; however, the drag coefficient in the vegetation model and the bed roughness parameter also made significant contribution to the uncertainty near the banks and bed, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

SIF and Vegetation Indices in the US Midwestern Agroecosystems, 2016-2021, Carbon Monitoring System (CMS)

This dataset contains half-hourly ground solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and vegetation indices including NDVI, EVI, Red edge chlorophyll index, green chlorophyll index, and photochemical reflectance index at seven crop sites in Nebraska and Illinois for the period 2016-2021. Four sites were located at Eddy Covariance (EC) tower sites (sites US-Ne2, US-Ne3, US-UiB, and US-UiC), and three sites were located on private farms (sites Reifsteck, Rund, and Reinhart). The sites were either miscanthus, corn-soybean rotation or corn-corn-soybean rotation. The spectral data for SIF retrieval and hyperspectral reflectance for vegetation index calculation were collected by the FluoSpec2 system, installed near planting, and uninstalled after harvest to collect whole growing-season data. Raw nadir SIF at 760 nm from different algorithms (sFLD, 3FLD, iFLD, SFM) are included. SFM_nonlinear and SFM_linear represent the Spectral fitting method (SFM) with the assumption that fluorescence and reflectance change with wavelength non-linearly and linearly, respectively. Additional data include two SIF correction factors including calibration coefficient adjustment factor (f_cal_corr_QEPRO) and upscaling nadir SIF to eddy covariance footprint factor (ratio_EC footprint, SIF pixel), and measured FPAR from quantum sensors and Rededge NDVI calculated FPAR. The data are provided in comma-separated values (CSV) format.

Ameriflux↗

DOE OSTI2023

Achieving Realistic Runoff in the Western United States with a Land Surface Model Forced by Dynamically Downscaled Meteorology

Abstract In this study, we calibrate a regional climate model’s (RCM) underlying land surface model (LSM). In addition to providing a realistic representation of runoff across the hydroclimatically diverse western United States, this is done to take advantage of the RCM’s ability to physically resolve meteorological forcing data in ungauged regions, and to prepare the calibrated hydrologic model for tight coupling, or the ability to represent land surface–atmosphere interactions, with the RCM. Specifically, we use a 9-km resolution meteorological forcing dataset across the western United States, from the fifth generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) downscaled by the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, as an offline forcing for Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP). We detail the steps involved in producing an LSM capable of accurately representing runoff, including physical parameterization selection, parameter calibration, and regionalization to ungauged basins. Based on our model evaluation from 1954 to 2021 for 586 basins with daily natural streamflow, the streamflow bias is reduced from 24.2% to 4.4%, and the median daily Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is improved from 0.12 to 0.36. When validating against basins with monthly natural streamflow data, we obtain a similar reduction in bias and a median monthly NSE improvement from 0.18 to 0.56. In this study, we also discover the optimal setup when using a donor-basin method to regionalize parameters to ungauged basins, which can vary by 0.06 NSE for unique designs of this regionalization method. Significance Statement This study provides useful guidance for improving a land surface model to accurately represent runoff across a spatially extensive and hydroclimatically diverse region (the western United States). The land surface model is updated to represent runoff more accurately at gauged basins, and then additionally updated for basins without observational data using a mathematical approach called the donor-basin method. We make use of a regional climate model’s reanalysis-derived meteorological data and its underlying land surface model to achieve realistic runoff. The calibrated land surface model can thus be tightly coupled in subsequent studies in a manner that should more accurately reflect runoff conditions. Findings from this study will serve as a useful reference for the atmospheric (and hydrologic) modeling communities and their ability to represent large-scale hydrology accurately.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparing CRT and Pandora Tagged Tracks in ICARUS

The ICARUS Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) is used to investigate short-baseline neutrino oscillations and the possible existence of sterile neutrinos. To aid in identifying and rejecting cosmic ray backgrounds, the system is outfitted with external Cosmic Ray Taggers (CRTs). The CRT is able to measure more tracks and at a wider range of angles, useful in further detailing future calibrations. This project compared the most probable values (MPVs) of charge deposition between CRT tagged and TPC tagged tracks. The Y-Z maps of charge scale for both datasets show a strong correlation, not just in their overall structure, but also in how they reflect known detector effects. Both reconstruction paths showed similar structures in their charge distribution, such as less effective wire section or mechanical support, confirming that CRT-tagged tracks, despite being external, respond to the same calibration landscape as Pandora tracks, validating previous Pandora reconstructions and values. Overall, the analysis supports the idea that the CRT tags are a useful addition to ICARUS calibration efforts. Their broad angular range and independence from Pandora reconstruction make them a helpful secondary tool and a potential asset in extending calibration across the detector volume.

Thayer, Abigail [Colorado State U.] (ORCID:0009000↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparing CRT and Pandora Tagged Tracks in ICARUS

Thayer, Abbie [Fermilab; Colorado State U.]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Abstract Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state‐of‐the‐art knowledge in an internally self‐consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain‐specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low‐emissions SSP1‐1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850–1900, using an observationally based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850–1900 and 1995–2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long‐term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol

The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗