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At least 73 records · Page 4

Analysis of regression methods for solar activity forecasting

The paper deals with the potential use of the most recent solar data to project trends in the next few years. Assuming that a mode of solar influence on weather can be identified, advantageous use of that knowledge presumably depends on estimating future solar activity. A frequently used technique for solar cycle predictions is a linear regression procedure along the lines formulated by McNish and Lincoln (1949). The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the behavior of such regression methods relative to the following aspects: cycle minimum, time into cycle, composition of historical data base, and unnormalized vs. normalized solar cycle data. Comparative solar cycle forecasts for several past cycles are presented as to these aspects of the input data. Implications for the current cycle, No. 21, are also given.

Lundquist, C. A.

Microwave radiometer measurement of water vapor path delay: Data reduction techniques

Data reduction techniques are developed to compensate for water vapor path delay, a limiting error source in geodetic measurements made with very long baseline interferometry and in radio ranging to spacecraft. It is shown that water vapor path delay is proportional to a linear combination of saturation-corrected sky brightness temperatures, measured on and off the water vapor line. The effects of emission from liquid water droplets in clouds as well as most of the oxygen emission are removed by the off-line channel. Sky brightness temperatures are saturation-corrected or 'linearized' using estimates of effective sky temperatures made from surface temperature. Tipping curves are used to remove instrumental error. Coefficients are found by two methods: from a regression analysis of measured brightness temperatures versus radiosonde measured delay, and from a regression analysis of theoretical brightness temperatures versus radiosonde measured delay. In each case the coefficients are adjusted for differing climatic conditions by measurements of surface temperature, pressure, and relative humidity. Regression solutions are constrained to remove liquid water contributions and to give the correct slope for radiometer versus radiosonde path delay.

Claflin, E. S.

Literature review of some selected types of results and statistical analyses of total-ozone data

The depletion of ozone in the stratosphere is examined, and causes for the depletion are cited. Ground station and satellite measurements of ozone, which are taken on a worldwide basis, are discussed. Instruments used in ozone measurement are discussed, such as the Dobson spectrophotometer, which is credited with providing the longest and most extensive series of observations for ground based observation of stratospheric ozone. Other ground based instruments used to measure ozone are also discussed. The statistical differences of ground based measurements of ozone from these different instruments are compared to each other, and to satellite measurements. Mathematical methods (i.e., trend analysis or linear regression analysis) of analyzing the variability of ozone concentration with respect to time and lattitude are described. Various time series models which can be employed in accounting for ozone concentration variability are examined.

Myers, R. H.

Durability/life of fiber composites in hygrothermomechanical environments

Statistical analysis and multiple regression were used to determine and quantify the significant hygrothermomechanical variables which infuence the tensile durability/life (cycle loading, fatigue) of boron-fiber/epoxy-matrix (B/E) and high-modulus-fiber/epoxy-matrix (HMS/E) composites. The use of the multiple regression analysis reduced the variables from fifteen, assumed initially, to six or less with a probability of greater than 0.999. The reduced variables were used to derive predictive models for compression an intralaminar shear durability/life of B/E and HMS/E composites assuming isoparametric fatigue behavior. The predictive models were subsequently generalized to predict the durability/life of graphite-fiber-r generalized model is of simple form, predicts conservative values compared with measured data and should be adequate for use in preliminary designs.

Chamis, C. C.

Durability/life of fiber composites in hygrothermomechanical environments

Statistical analysis and multiple regression were used to determine and quantify the significant hygrothermomechanical variables which influence the tensile durability/life (cycle loading, fatigue) of boron-fiber/epoxy-matrix (B/E) and high-modulus-fiber/epoxy-matrix (HMS/E) composites. The use of the multiple regression analysis reduced the variables from fifteen, assumed initially, to six or less with a probability of greater than 0.999. The reduced variables were used to derive predictive models for compression and intralaminar shear durability/life of B/E and HMS/E composites assuming isoparametric fatigue behavior. The predictive models were subsequently generalized to predict the durability/life of graphite/fiber-r generalized model is of simple form, predicts conservative values compared with measured data and should be adequate for use in preliminary designs. Previously announced in STAR as N82-14287

Chamis, C. C.

Creep-Rupture Data Analysis - Engineering Application of Regression Techniques

The results are presented of investigations to apply regression techniques to the development of methodology for creep-rupture data analysis. Regression analysis techniques are applied to the explicit description of the creep behavior of materials for space shuttle thermal protection systems. A regression analysis technique is compared with five parametric methods for analyzing three simulated and twenty real data sets, and a computer program for the evaluation of creep-rupture data is presented.

Rummler, D. R.

Distribution and observed associations of orthostatic blood pressure changes in elderly general medicine outpatients

Factors associated with orthostatic blood pressure change in elderly outpatients were determined by surveying 398 medical clinical outpatients aged 65 years and older. Blood pressure was measured with random-zero sphygmomanometers after patients were 5 minutes in a supine and 5 minutes in a standing position. Orthostatic blood pressure changes were at normally distributed levels with systolic and diastolic pressures dropping an average of 4 mm Hg (standard deviation [SD]=15 mm Hg) and 2 mm Hg (SD=11 mm Hg), respectively. Orthostatic blood pressure changes were unassociated with age, race, sex, body mass, time since eating, symptoms, or other factors. According to multiple linear regression analysis, supine systolic pressure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and diabetes mellitus were associated with a decrease in systolic pressure on standing. Hypertension, antiarthritic drugs, and abnormal heartbeat were associated with an increase in systolic pressure on standing. For orthostatic diastolic pressure changes, supine diastolic pressure and COPD were associated with a decrease in diastolic pressure on standing. Congestive heart failure was associated with an increase in standing diastolic pressure. Using logistic regression analysis, only supine systolic pressure was associated with a greater than 20-mm Hg drop in systolic pressure (n=53, prevalence=13%). Supine diastolic pressure and COPD were the only variables associated with a greater than 20-mm Hg drop in diastolic pressure (n=16, prevalence=4%). These factors may help physicians in identifying older persons at risk for having orthostatic hypotension.

Non-NASA Center

Water quality parameter measurement using spectral signatures

Regression analysis is applied to the problem of measuring water quality parameters from remote sensing spectral signature data. The equations necessary to perform regression analysis are presented and methods of testing the strength and reliability of a regression are described. An efficient algorithm for selecting an optimal subset of the independent variables available for a regression is also presented.

White, P. E.

Development of a Non-Iterative Balance Load Prediction Algorithm for the NASA Ames Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel

A non-iterative load prediction algorithm for strain-gage balances was developed for the NASA Ames Unitary Plan Wind Tunnels that computes balance loads from the electrical outputs of the balance bridges and a set of state variables. A state variable could be, for example, a balance temperature difference or the bellows pressure of a flow-through balance. The algorithm directly uses regression models of the balance loads for the load prediction that were obtained by applying global regression analysis to balance calibration data. This choice greatly simplifies both implementation and use of the load prediction process for complex balance configurations as no load iteration needs to be performed. The regression model of a balance load is constructed by using terms from a total of nine term groups. Four term groups are derived from a Taylor Series expansion of the relationship between the load, gage outputs, and state variables. The remaining five term groups are defined by using absolute values of the gage outputs and state variables. Terms from these groups should only be included in the regression model if calibration data from a balance with known bi-directional outputs is analyzed. It is illustrated in detail how global regression analysis may be applied to obtain the coefficients of the chosen regression model of a load component assuming that no linear or massive near-linear dependencies between the regression model terms exist. Data from the machine calibration of a six-component force balance is used to illustrate both application and accuracy of the non-iterative load prediction process.

Ulbrich, Norbert M.

Comparison of DMSP SSM/I and Landsat 7 ETM+ Sea Ice Concentrations During Summer Melt

As part of NASA's EOS Aqua sea ice validation program for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images were acquired to develop a sea ice concentration data set with which to validate AMSR-E sea ice concentration retrievals. The standard AMSR-E Arctic sea ice concentration product will be obtained with the enhanced NASA Team (NT2) algorithm. The goal of this study is to assess the accuracy to which the NT2 algorithm, using DMSP Special Sensor Microwave Imager radiances, retrieves sea ice concentrations under summer melt conditions. Melt ponds are currently the largest source of error in the determination of Arctic sea ice concentrations with satellite passive microwave sensors. To accomplish this goal, Landsat 7 ETM+ images of Baffin Bay were acquired under clear sky conditions on the 26th and 27th of June 2000 and used to generate high-resolution sea ice concentration maps with which to compare the NT2 retrievals. Based on a linear regression analysis of 116 25-km samples, we find that overall the NT2 retrievals agree well with the Landsat concentrations. The regression analysis yields a correlation coefficient of 0.98. In areas of high melt ponding, the NT2 retrievals underestimate the sea ice concentrations by about 12% compared to the Landsat values.

Cavalieri, Donald J.

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool

The goal of this task was to upgrade to the existing severe weather database by adding observations from the 2010 warm season, update the verification dataset with results from the 2010 warm season, use statistical logistic regression analysis on the database and develop a new forecast tool. The AMU analyzed 7 stability parameters that showed the possibility of providing guidance in forecasting severe weather, calculated verification statistics for the Total Threat Score (TTS), and calculated warm season verification statistics for the 2010 season. The AMU also performed statistical logistic regression analysis on the 22-year severe weather database. The results indicated that the logistic regression equation did not show an increase in skill over the previously developed TTS. The equation showed less accuracy than TTS at predicting severe weather, little ability to distinguish between severe and non-severe weather days, and worse standard categorical accuracy measures and skill scores over TTS.

Watson, Leela

Can Functional Cardiac Age be Predicted from ECG in a Normal Healthy Population

In a normal healthy population, we desired to determine the most age-dependent conventional and advanced ECG parameters. We hypothesized that changes in several ECG parameters might correlate with age and together reliably characterize the functional age of the heart. Methods: An initial study population of 313 apparently healthy subjects was ultimately reduced to 148 subjects (74 men, 84 women, in the range from 10 to 75 years of age) after exclusion criteria. In all subjects, ECG recordings (resting 5-minute 12-lead high frequency ECG) were evaluated via custom software programs to calculate up to 85 different conventional and advanced ECG parameters including beat-to-beat QT and RR variability, waveform complexity, and signal-averaged, high-frequency and spatial/spatiotemporal ECG parameters. The prediction of functional age was evaluated by multiple linear regression analysis using the best 5 univariate predictors. Results: Ignoring what were ultimately small differences between males and females, the functional age was found to be predicted (R2= 0.69, P < 0.001) from a linear combination of 5 independent variables: QRS elevation in the frontal plane (p<0.001), a new repolarization parameter QTcorr (p<0.001), mean high frequency QRS amplitude (p=0.009), the variability parameter % VLF of RRV (p=0.021) and the P-wave width (p=0.10). Here, QTcorr represents the correlation between the calculated QT and the measured QT signal. Conclusions: In apparently healthy subjects with normal conventional ECGs, functional cardiac age can be estimated by multiple linear regression analysis of mostly advanced ECG results. Because some parameters in the regression formula, such as QTcorr, high frequency QRS amplitude and P-wave width also change with disease in the same direction as with increased age, increased functional age of the heart may reflect subtle age-related pathologies in cardiac electrical function that are usually hidden on conventional ECG.

Schlegel, Todd

Iterative Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data Analysis for Extended Independent Variable Sets

A new method was developed that makes it possible to use an extended set of independent calibration variables for an iterative analysis of wind tunnel strain gage balance calibration data. The new method permits the application of the iterative analysis method whenever the total number of balance loads and other independent calibration variables is greater than the total number of measured strain gage outputs. Iteration equations used by the iterative analysis method have the limitation that the number of independent and dependent variables must match. The new method circumvents this limitation. It simply adds a missing dependent variable to the original data set by using an additional independent variable also as an additional dependent variable. Then, the desired solution of the regression analysis problem can be obtained that fits each gage output as a function of both the original and additional independent calibration variables. The final regression coefficients can be converted to data reduction matrix coefficients because the missing dependent variables were added to the data set without changing the regression analysis result for each gage output. Therefore, the new method still supports the application of the two load iteration equation choices that the iterative method traditionally uses for the prediction of balance loads during a wind tunnel test. An example is discussed in the paper that illustrates the application of the new method to a realistic simulation of temperature dependent calibration data set of a six component balance.

Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred

An Improved Weighted Least Squares Algorithm for the Analysis of Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data

An improved version of an algorithm is presented that uses a weighted least squares fit of balance calibration data for the generation of the balance load prediction equations. The weighted least squares fit assigns a weighting factor between zero and one to each calibration data point that depends on a simple count of the number of intentionally loaded balance gages. The greater the number of the loaded gages is, the smaller a data point's weighting factor becomes. This strategy has two advantages. First, single-component loads become more influential during the regression analysis of the calibration data. In addition, the negative influence of load schedule asymmetries on the regression analysis results can more effectively be controlled. The original algorithm of 2017 was improved in 2020. Now, gage output differences relative to the natural zeros are exclusively used as input for the determination of the number of intentionally loaded gages. The improved weighted least squares fit can be applied with both the Non-Iterative Method and the Iterative Method that are used for the balance load prediction in the aerospace testing community. Machine calibration data of a force balance is used to illustrate benefits of the application of the improved weighted least squares fit of balance calibration data.

strain-gage balance

Evaluation of SLAR and thematic mapper MSS data for forest cover mapping using computer-aided analysis techniques

The spatial characteristics of the data were evaluated. A program was developed to reduce the spatial distortions resulting from variable viewing distance, and geometrically adjusted data sets were generated. The potential need for some level of radiometric adjustment was evidenced by an along track band of high reflectance across different cover types in the Varian imagery. A multiple regression analysis was employed to explore the viewing angle effect on measured reflectance. Areas in the data set which appeared to have no across track stratification of cover type were identified. A program was developed which computed the average reflectance by column for each channel, over all of the scan lines in the designated areas. A regression analysis was then run using the first, second, and third degree polynomials, for each channel. An atmospheric effect as a component of the viewing angle source of variance is discussed. Cover type maps were completed and training and test field selection was initiated.

Hoffer, R. M.

Estradiol associations with brain functional connectivity in postmenopausal women

Abstract Objective Previous studies have found that estrogens play a role in functional connectivity in the brain; however, little research has been done regarding how estradiol is associated with functional connectivity in postmenopausal women. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between estradiol and functional connectivity in postmenopausal women. Methods Structural and blood oxygenation level–dependent resting-state magnetic resonance imaging scans of 88 cognitively healthy postmenopausal individuals were obtained along with blood samples collected the same day as the magnetic resonance imaging to assess hormone levels. We generated connectivity values in CONN toolbox version 20.b, an SPM-based software. Results A regression analysis was run using estradiol level and regions of interest (ROI), including the hippocampus, parahippocampus, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and precuneus. Estradiol level was found to enhance parahippocampal gyrus anterior division left functional connectivity during ROI-to-ROI regression analysis. Estradiol enhanced functional connectivity between the parahippocampal gyrus anterior division left and the precuneus as well as the parahippocampal gyrus anterior division left and parahippocampal gyrus posterior division right. An exploratory analysis showed that years since the final menstrual period was related to enhanced connectivity between regions within the frontoparietal network. Conclusions These results illustrated the relationship between estradiol level and functional connectivity in postmenopausal women. They have implications for understanding how the functioning of the brain changes for individuals after menopause that may eventually lead to changes in cognition and behavior in older ages.

Obstetrics & Gynecology

Review and statistical analysis of the use of ultrasonic velocity for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials

A review and statistical analysis of the ultrasonic velocity method for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials is presented. Initially, a semiempirical model is developed showing the origin of the linear relationship between ultrasonic velocity and porosity fraction. Then, from a compilation of data produced by many researchers, scatter plots of velocity versus percent porosity data are shown for Al2O3, MgO, porcelain-based ceramics, PZT, SiC, Si3N4, steel, tungsten, UO2,(U0.30Pu0.70)C, and YBa2Cu3O(7-x). Linear regression analysis produces predicted slope, intercept, correlation coefficient, level of significance, and confidence interval statistics for the data. Velocity values predicted from regression analysis of fully-dense materials are in good agreement with those calculated from elastic properties.

Roth, D. J.

Review and statistical analysis of the ultrasonic velocity method for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials

A review and statistical analysis of the ultrasonic velocity method for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials is presented. Initially, a semi-empirical model is developed showing the origin of the linear relationship between ultrasonic velocity and porosity fraction. Then, from a compilation of data produced by many researchers, scatter plots of velocity versus percent porosity data are shown for Al2O3, MgO, porcelain-based ceramics, PZT, SiC, Si3N4, steel, tungsten, UO2,(U0.30Pu0.70)C, and YBa2Cu3O(7-x). Linear regression analysis produced predicted slope, intercept, correlation coefficient, level of significance, and confidence interval statistics for the data. Velocity values predicted from regression analysis for fully-dense materials are in good agreement with those calculated from elastic properties.

Roth, D. J.