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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2000

MACS, An Instrument, and a Methodology for Simulations and Global Measurements of the Coronal Electron Temperature and the Solar Wind Velocity on the Solar Corona

The determination of the radial and latitudinal temperature and wind profiles of the solar corona is of great importance in understanding the coronal heating mechanism and the dynamics of coronal expansion. Cram presented the theory for the formation of the K-coronal spectrum and identified two important observations. He observed the existence of temperature sensitive anti-nodes at certain wavelengths in the theoretical K-coronal spectra. The anti-nodes are separated by temperature-insensitive nodes. Remarkably, Cram showed that the wavelengths of the nodes and anti-nodes are almost independent of altitude above the solar limb. Because of these features, Cram suggested that the intensity ratios at two anti-nodes could be used as a diagnostic of the electron temperature in the K-corona. Based on this temperature diagnostic technique prescribed by Cram a slit-based spectroscopic study was performed by Ichimoto et al. on the solar corona in conjunction with the total solar eclipse of 3 Nov 1994 in Putre, Chile to determine the temperature profile of the solar corona. In this thesis Cram's theory has been extended to incorporate the role of the solar wind in the formation of the K-corona, and we have identified both temperature and wind sensitive intensity ratios. The instrument, MACS, for Multi Aperture Coronal Spectrometer, a fiber optic based spectrograph, was designed for global and simultaneous measurement of the thermal electron temperature and the solar wind velocity in the solar corona. The first ever experiment of this nature was conducted in conjunction with the total solar eclipse of 11 Aug 1999 in Elazig, Turkey. In this instrument one end of each of twenty fiber optic tips were positioned in the focal plane of the telescope in such a way that we could observe conditions simultaneously at many different latitudes and two different radial distances in the solar corona. The other ends of the fibers were vertically aligned and placed at the primary focus of the collimating lens of the spectrograph to obtain simultaneous and global spectra on the solar corona. By isolating the K-coronal spectrum from the spectrum recorded by each fiber the temperature and the wind sensitive intensity ratios were calculated to obtain simultaneous and global measurements of the thermal electron temperature and the solar wind velocity. We were successful in obtaining reliable estimates of the coronal temperature at many positions in the corona. This is the first time that simultaneous measurements of coronal temperatures have been obtained at so many points. However due to instrumental scattering encountered during observations, reliable estimates of the wind velocity turned out to be impossible to obtain. Although remedial measures were taken prior to observation, this task proved to be difficult owing to the inability to replicate the conditions expected during an eclipse in the laboratory. The full extent of the instrumental scattering was apparent only when we analyzed the observational sequence. Nevertheless the experience obtained from this very first attempt to simultaneously and globally measure both the wind velocity and the temperature on the solar corona have provided valuable information to conduct any future observations successfully.

Reginald, Nelson L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Bayesian Framework for Reliability Analysis of Spacecraft Deployments

Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a two stage sequential Bayesian framework for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This process was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the Optical Telescope Element. Initially, detailed studies of NASA deployment history, "heritage information", were conducted, extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. This information was then coupled to a non-informative prior and a binomial likelihood function to create a posterior distribution for deployments of various subsystems uSing Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling. Select distributions were then coupled to a subsequent analysis, using test data and anomaly occurrences on successive ground test deployments of scale model test articles of JWST hardware, to update the NASA heritage data. This allowed for a realistic prediction for the reliability of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, within this two stage Bayesian framework.

Evans, John W.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Bayesian Approach for Reliability Assessment of Sunshield Deployment on JWST

Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications, for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a Bayesian approach for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This approach was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the observatory's telescope and science instruments. In order to collect the prior information on deployable systems, detailed studies of "heritage information", were conducted extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Spacecraft Operational Anomaly and Reporting System (SOARS) data were then used to estimate the parameters of the conjugative beta prior distribution for anomaly and failure occurrence, as the most consistent set of available data and that could be matched to launch histories. This allows for an emperical Bayesian prediction for the risk of an anomaly occurrence of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, using prior deployment data and test information.

Kaminskiy, Mark P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Multiple Asteroid Systems: Dimensions and Thermal Properties from Spitzer Space Telescope and Ground-based Observations

We collected mid-IR spectra from 5.2 to 38 microns using the Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Spectrograph of 28 asteroids representative of all established types of binary groups. Photometric light curves were also obtained for 14 of them during the Spitzer observations to provide the context of the observations and reliable estimates of their absolute magnitudes. The extracted mid-IR spectra were analyzed using a modified standard thermal model (STM) and a thermophysical model (TPM) that takes into account the shape and geometry of the large primary at the time of the Spitzer observation. We derived a reliable estimate of the size, albedo, and beaming factor for each of these asteroids, representing three main taxonomic groups: C, S, and X. For large (volume-equivalent system diameter Deq > 130 km) binary asteroids, the TPM analysis indicates a low thermal inertia (Lambda < or = approx.100 J/1/2 s/K/sq m2) and their emissivity spectra display strong mineral features, implying that they are covered with a thick layer of thermally insulating regolith. The smaller (surface-equivalent system diameter Deff < 17 km) asteroids also show some emission lines of minerals, but they are significantly weaker, consistent with regoliths with coarser grains, than those of the large binary asteroids. The average bulk densities of these multiple asteroids vary from 0.7-1.7 g/cu cm (P-, C-type) to approx. 2 g/cu cm (S-type). The highest density is estimated for the M-type (22) Kalliope (3.2 +/- 0.9 g/cu cm). The spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and emissivity spectra, made available as a supplement document, could help to constrain the surface compositions of these asteroids.

Marchis, F.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Hard X-Ray Flare Source Sizes Measured with the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager

Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) observations of 18 double hard X-ray sources seen at energies above 25 keV are analyzed to determine the spatial extent of the most compact structures evident in each case. The following four image reconstruction algorithms were used: Clean, Pixon, and two routines using visibilities maximum entropy and forward fit (VFF). All have been adapted for this study to optimize their ability to provide reliable estimates of the sizes of the more compact sources. The source fluxes, sizes, and morphologies obtained with each method are cross-correlated and the similarities and disagreements are discussed. The full width at half-maximum (FWHM) of the major axes of the sources with assumed elliptical Gaussian shapes are generally well correlated between the four image reconstruction routines and vary between the RHESSI resolution limit of approximately 2" up to approximately 20" with most below 10". The FWHM of the minor axes are generally at or just above the RHESSI limit and hence should be considered as unresolved in most cases. The orientation angles of the elliptical sources are also well correlated. These results suggest that the elongated sources are generally aligned along a flare ribbon with the minor axis perpendicular to the ribbon. This is verified for the one flare in our list with coincident Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) images. There is evidence for significant extra flux in many of the flares in addition to the two identified compact sources, thus rendering the VFF assumption of just two Gaussians inadequate. A more realistic approximation in many cases would be of two line sources with unresolved widths. Recommendations are given for optimizing the RHESSI imaging reconstruction process to ensure that the finest possible details of the source morphology become evident and that reliable estimates can be made of the source dimensions.

Dennis, Brian R.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Table for estimating parameters of Weibull distribution

Table yields best linear invariant /BLI/ estimates for log of reliable life under censored life tests, permitting reliability estimations in failure analysis of items with multiple flaws. These BLI estimates have uniformly smaller expected loss than Gauss-Markov best linear unbiased estimates.

Mann, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Development of confidence limits by pivotal functions for estimating software reliability

The utility of pivotal functions is established for assessing software reliability. Based on the Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model of reliability growth, confidence limits for attained reliability and prediction limits for the time to the next failure are derived using a pivotal function approach. Asymptotic approximations to the confidence and prediction limits are considered and are shown to be inadequate in cases where only a few bugs are found in the software. Departures from the assumed exponentially distributed interfailure times in the model are also investigated. The effect of these departures is discussed relative to restricting the use of the Moranda model.

Dotson, Kelly J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Estimating the Reliability of Electronic Parts in High Radiation Fields

Radiation effects on materials and electronic parts constrain the lifetime of flight systems visiting Europa. Understanding mission lifetime limits is critical to the design and planning of such a mission. Therefore, the operational aspects of radiation dose are a mission success issue. To predict and manage mission lifetime in a high radiation environment, system engineers need capable tools to trade radiation design choices against system design and reliability, and science achievements. Conventional tools and approaches provided past missions with conservative designs without the ability to predict their lifetime beyond the baseline mission.This paper describes a more systematic approach to understanding spacecraft design margin, allowing better prediction of spacecraft lifetime. This is possible because of newly available electronic parts radiation effects statistics and an enhanced spacecraft system reliability methodology. This new approach can be used in conjunction with traditional approaches for mission design. This paper describes the fundamentals of the new methodology.

radiation↗
NASA NTRS2022

Herbarium records provide reliable phenology estimates in the understudied tropics

1. Plant phenology has been shifting dramatically in response to climate change, a shift that may have significant and widespread ecological consequences. Of particular concern are tropical biomes, which represent the most biodiverse and imperilled regions of the world. However, compared to temperate floras, we know little about phenological responses of tropical plants because long-term observational datasets from the tropics are sparse. 2. Herbarium specimens have greatly increased our phenological knowledge in temperate regions, but similar data have been underutilized in the tropics and their suitability for this purpose has not been broadly validated. Here, we compare phenological estimates derived from field observational data (i.e. plot surveys) and herbarium specimens at various spatial and taxonomic scales to determine whether specimens can provide accurate estimations of reproductive timing and its spatial variation. 3. Here, we demonstrate that phenological estimates from field observations and herbarium specimens coincide well. Fewer than 5% of the species exhibited significant differences between flowering periods inferred from field observations versus specimens regardless of spatial aggregation. In contrast to studies based on field records, herbarium specimens sampled much larger geographic and climatic ranges, as has been documented previously for temperate plants, and effectively captured phenological responses across varied environments. 4. Synthesis. Herbarium specimens are verified to be a vital resource for closing the gap in our phenological knowledge of tropical systems. Tropical plant reproductive phenology inferred from herbarium records is widely congruent with field observations, suggesting that they can and should be used to investigate phenological variation and their associated environmental cues more broadly across tropical biomes.

Brazil↗
NASA NTRS1995

Software For Computing Reliability Of Other Software

Computer Aided Software Reliability Estimation (CASRE) computer program developed for use in measuring reliability of other software. Easier for non-specialists in reliability to use than many other currently available programs developed for same purpose. CASRE incorporates mathematical modeling capabilities of public-domain Statistical Modeling and Estimation of Reliability Functions for Software (SMERFS) computer program and runs in Windows software environment. Provides menu-driven command interface; enabling and disabling of menu options guides user through (1) selection of set of failure data, (2) execution of mathematical model, and (3) analysis of results from model. Written in C language.

Nikora, Allen↗
NASA NTRS1991

Developing Confidence Limits For Reliability Of Software

Technique developed for estimating reliability of software by use of Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model. Pivotal method enables straightforward construction of exact bounds with associated degree of statistical confidence about reliability of software. Confidence limits thus derived provide precise means of assessing quality of software. Limits take into account number of bugs found while testing and effects of sampling variation associated with random order of discovering bugs.

Hayhurst, Kelly J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Optimal experimental designs for the estimation of thermal properties of composite materials

Reliable estimation of thermal properties is extremely important in the utilization of new advanced materials, such as composite materials. The accuracy of these estimates can be increased if the experiments are designed carefully. The objectives of this study are to design optimal experiments to be used in the prediction of these thermal properties and to then utilize these designs in the development of an estimation procedure to determine the effective thermal properties (thermal conductivity and volumetric heat capacity). The experiments were optimized by choosing experimental parameters that maximize the temperature derivatives with respect to all of the unknown thermal properties. This procedure has the effect of minimizing the confidence intervals of the resulting thermal property estimates. Both one-dimensional and two-dimensional experimental designs were optimized. A heat flux boundary condition is required in both analyses for the simultaneous estimation of the thermal properties. For the one-dimensional experiment, the parameters optimized were the heating time of the applied heat flux, the temperature sensor location, and the experimental time. In addition to these parameters, the optimal location of the heat flux was also determined for the two-dimensional experiments. Utilizing the optimal one-dimensional experiment, the effective thermal conductivity perpendicular to the fibers and the effective volumetric heat capacity were then estimated for an IM7-Bismaleimide composite material. The estimation procedure used is based on the minimization of a least squares function which incorporates both calculated and measured temperatures and allows for the parameters to be estimated simultaneously.

Scott, Elaine P.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Decomposition in reliability analysis of fault-tolerant systems

The existing approaches to reliability modeling are briefly reviewed. An examination of the limitations of the existing approaches in modeling ultrareliable fault-tolerant systems illustrates the need to use decomposition techniques. The notion of behavioral decomposition is introduced for dealing with reliability models with a large number of states, and a series of examples is presented. The CARE (computer-aided reliability estimation) and HARP (hybrid automated reliability predictor) approaches to reliability are discussed.

Trivedi, K. S.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Reliability Impacts in Life Support Architecture and Technology Selection

Equivalent System Mass (ESM) and reliability estimates were performed for different life support architectures based primarily on International Space Station (ISS) technologies. The analysis was applied to a hypothetical 1-year deep-space mission. High-level fault trees were initially developed relating loss of life support functionality to the Loss of Crew (LOC) top event. System reliability was then expressed as the complement (nonoccurrence) this event and was increased through the addition of redundancy and spares, which added to the ESM. The reliability analysis assumed constant failure rates and used current projected values of the Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) from an ISS database where available. Results were obtained showing the dependence of ESM on system reliability for each architecture. Although the analysis employed numerous simplifications and many of the input parameters are considered to have high uncertainty, the results strongly suggest that achieving necessary reliabilities for deep-space missions will add substantially to the life support system mass. As a point of reference, the reliability for a single-string architecture using the most regenerative combination of ISS technologies without unscheduled replacement spares was estimated to be less than 1%. The results also demonstrate how adding technologies in a serial manner to increase system closure forces the reliability of other life support technologies to increase in order to meet the system reliability requirement. This increase in reliability results in increased mass for multiple technologies through the need for additional spares. Alternative parallel architecture approaches and approaches with the potential to do more with less are discussed. The tall poles in life support ESM are also reexamined in light of estimated reliability impacts.

Lange, Kevin E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

High level design proof of a reliable computing platform

The main objectives are: to establish hardware/software platform for ultra-reliable computing; to use fault tolerant computer architecture; to use formal methods to prevent design and implementation errors; and to construct reliability model to quantify reliability estimate. The results show that: ultra-reliable control systems are hard to achieve; simple fault tolerant design is postulated; formal specification of design is constructed; and preliminary correctness proofs are obtained.

Divito, Ben L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Composite Stress Rupture: A New Reliability Model Based on Strength Decay

A model is proposed to estimate reliability for stress rupture of composite overwrap pressure vessels (COPVs) and similar composite structures. This new reliability model is generated by assuming a strength degradation (or decay) over time. The model suggests that most of the strength decay occurs late in life. The strength decay model will be shown to predict a response similar to that predicted by a traditional reliability model for stress rupture based on tests at a single stress level. In addition, the model predicts that even though there is strength decay due to proof loading, a significant overall increase in reliability is gained by eliminating any weak vessels, which would fail early. The model predicts that there should be significant periods of safe life following proof loading, because time is required for the strength to decay from the proof stress level to the subsequent loading level. Suggestions for testing the strength decay reliability model have been made. If the strength decay reliability model predictions are shown through testing to be accurate, COPVs may be designed to carry a higher level of stress than is currently allowed, which will enable the production of lighter structures

Reeder, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Bayes Error Rate Estimation Using Classifier Ensembles

The Bayes error rate gives a statistical lower bound on the error achievable for a given classification problem and the associated choice of features. By reliably estimating th is rate, one can assess the usefulness of the feature set that is being used for classification. Moreover, by comparing the accuracy achieved by a given classifier with the Bayes rate, one can quantify how effective that classifier is. Classical approaches for estimating or finding bounds for the Bayes error, in general, yield rather weak results for small sample sizes; unless the problem has some simple characteristics, such as Gaussian class-conditional likelihoods. This article shows how the outputs of a classifier ensemble can be used to provide reliable and easily obtainable estimates of the Bayes error with negligible extra computation. Three methods of varying sophistication are described. First, we present a framework that estimates the Bayes error when multiple classifiers, each providing an estimate of the a posteriori class probabilities, a recombined through averaging. Second, we bolster this approach by adding an information theoretic measure of output correlation to the estimate. Finally, we discuss a more general method that just looks at the class labels indicated by ensem ble members and provides error estimates based on the disagreements among classifiers. The methods are illustrated for artificial data, a difficult four-class problem involving underwater acoustic data, and two problems from the Problem benchmarks. For data sets with known Bayes error, the combiner-based methods introduced in this article outperform existing methods. The estimates obtained by the proposed methods also seem quite reliable for the real-life data sets for which the true Bayes rates are unknown.

Tumer, Kagan↗