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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1973

Computer-aided communication satellite system analysis and optimization

The capabilities and limitations of the various published computer programs for fixed/broadcast communication satellite system synthesis and optimization are discussed. A satellite Telecommunication analysis and Modeling Program (STAMP) for costing and sensitivity analysis work in application of communication satellites to educational development is given. The modifications made to STAMP include: extension of the six beam capability to eight; addition of generation of multiple beams from a single reflector system with an array of feeds; an improved system costing to reflect the time value of money, growth in earth terminal population with time, and to account for various measures of system reliability; inclusion of a model for scintillation at microwave frequencies in the communication link loss model; and, an updated technological environment.

Stagl, T. W.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evaluating Differences Among Crop Models in Simulating Soybean in-Season Growth

Crop models are useful tools for simulating agricultural systems that require continued model development and testing to increase their robustness and improve how they describe our current understanding of processes. Coordinated and “blind” evaluation of multiple models using same protocols and experimental datasets provides unique opportunities to further improve models and enhance their reliability. For soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.], there has been limited coordinated multi-model evaluations for the simulation of in-season plant growth dynamics. We evaluated ten dynamic soybean crop models for their simulation of in-season plant growth using data from five experiments conducted in Argentina, Brazil, France, and USA. We evaluated models after a Blind (using only phenology data) and a Full calibration (with in-season and end-of-season variables). Calibration reduced model uncertainty by reducing standard bias for the simulation of in-season variables (biomass, leaf, pod, and stem weights, and leaf area index, LAI). However, we found that most models had difficulty in reproducing leaf growth dynamics, with normalized root mean squared error (nRMSE) of 56% for leaf weight and 43% for LAI (across locations and models after Full calibration). Models with different levels of complexity and experience were capable of simulating final seed yield at maturity with reasonable accuracy (nRMSE of 8–31% after Full calibration). However, the nRMSE for pod weight (of 17–64% after Full calibration) was two-fold larger than that of seed yield. Moreover, the models differed in how they simulated timing from sowing to beginning seed growth (47–93 days) and effective seed filling period (18–54 days), owing to model structural differences in defining the reproductive developmental stages. Overall, we identified the following processes that can benefit from further model improvement: leaf expansion and senescence, reproductive phenology, and partitioning to reproductive growth. Simulation of pod wall tissue and individual seed cohorts is another aspect that many models currently lack. Model improvement can benefit from high-temporal resolution experimental datasets that concurrently account for phenology, plant growth, and partitioning. Further, we recommend collecting reproductive phenology in the field consistent with actual dry matter allocation to organs in the models and collecting multiple observations of seed and pod weight to aid model improvement for simulation of seed growth and yield formation.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement↗
NASA NTRS1992

Modifications to Encke's method for long arc orbit determination solutions

An expanded model is developed that permits the extrapolation of Encke's method for the determination of orbits with long arcs, and the model is used to determine a solution for the Lageos trajectory. Encke's method is reviewed emphasizing the nature of the growth of the Encke ratio and the reliability of extrapolated reference trajectories. The reference-orbit formulation is improved by including parameters that accommodate drag and large-amplitude perodic variations in the orbital elements. The proposed Long Arc Model is expected to provide a maximum Encke ratio that is an order of magnitude more reliable than that given by the secularly precessing ellipse. The computational cost of using the Long Arc Model is shown to compare favorably with that of the true force model, and the long arc solutions are useful for current orbit-determination needs.

Lundberg, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The cleanroom case study in the Software Engineering Laboratory: Project description and early analysis

This case study analyzes the application of the cleanroom software development methodology to the development of production software at the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. The cleanroom methodology emphasizes human discipline in program verification to produce reliable software products that are right the first time. Preliminary analysis of the cleanroom case study shows that the method can be applied successfully in the FDD environment and may increase staff productivity and product quality. Compared to typical Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) activities, there is evidence of lower failure rates, a more complete and consistent set of inline code documentation, a different distribution of phase effort activity, and a different growth profile in terms of lines of code developed. The major goals of the study were to: (1) assess the process used in the SEL cleanroom model with respect to team structure, team activities, and effort distribution; (2) analyze the products of the SEL cleanroom model and determine the impact on measures of interest, including reliability, productivity, overall life-cycle cost, and software quality; and (3) analyze the residual products in the application of the SEL cleanroom model, such as fault distribution, error characteristics, system growth, and computer usage.

Green, Scott↗
NASA NTRS1988

The growth of the continental crust: Constraints from radiogenic isotope geochemistry

Most models for evolution of continental crust are expressed in the form of a diagram illustrating the cumulative crustal mass (normalized relative to the present crustal mass) as a function of time. Thus, geochronological data inevitably play a major role in either constructing or testing crustal growth models. For all models, determining the start-time for effective crustal accretion is of vital importance. To this end, the continuing search for, and reliable characterization of, the most ancient crustal rock-units remains a worthy enterprise. Another important role for geochronology and radiogenic isotope geochemistry is to assess the status of major geological events as period either of new crust generation or of reworking of earlier formed continental crust. For age characterization of major geological provinces, using the critieria outined, the mass (or volume) of crust surviving to the present day should be determinable as a function of crust formation age. More recent developments, however, appear to set severe limitations on recycling of crust, at least by the process of sediment subduction. In modeling crustal growth without recycling, valuable constaints on growth rate variations through time can be provided if variations in the average age of the continental crust can be monitored through geological history. The question of the average age of the exposed continental crust was addressed by determining Sm-Nd crustal residence model ages (T-CR) for fine-grained sediment loads of many of the world's major rivers.

Taylor, Paul N.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Effect of Data Reduction and Fiber-Bridging on Mode I Delamination Characterization of Unidirectional Composites

Reliable delamination characterization data for laminated composites are needed for input in analytical models of structures to predict delamination onset and growth. The double-cantilevered beam (DCB) specimen is used to measure fracture toughness, GIc, and strain energy release rate, GImax, for delamination onset and growth in laminated composites under mode I loading. The current study was conducted as part of an ASTM Round Robin activity to evaluate a proposed testing standard for Mode I fatigue delamination propagation. Static and fatigue tests were conducted on specimens of IM7/977-3 and G40-800/5276-1 graphite/epoxies, and S2/5216 glass/epoxy DCB specimens to evaluate the draft standard "Standard Test Method for Mode I Fatigue Delamination Propagation of Unidirectional Fiber-Reinforced Polymer Matrix Composites." Static results were used to generate a delamination resistance curve, GIR, for each material, which was used to determine the effects of fiber-bridging on the delamination growth data. All three materials were tested in fatigue at a cyclic GImax level equal to 90% of the fracture toughness, GIc, to determine the delamination growth rate. Two different data reduction methods, a 2-point and a 7-point fit, were used and the resulting Paris Law equations were compared. Growth rate results were normalized by the delamination resistance curve for each material and compared to the nonnormalized results. Paris Law exponents were found to decrease by 5.4% to 46.2% due to normalizing the growth data. Additional specimens of the IM7/977-3 material were tested at 3 lower cyclic GImax levels to compare the effect of loading level on delamination growth rates. The IM7/977-3 tests were also used to determine the delamination threshold curve for that material. The results show that tests at a range of loading levels are necessary to describe the complete delamination behavior of this material.

Murri, Gretchen B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Nucleation and Grain Growth in the Solar Nebula: Initial Progress Report

The primitive solar nebula was a violent and chaotic environment where high energy collisions, lightning, shocks and magnetic re-connection events rapidly vaporized some fraction of nebular dust, melted larger particles while leaving the largest grains virtually undisturbed. At the same time, some tiny grains containing very easily disturbed noble gas signatures (e.g., small, pre-solar graphite or SiC particles) never experienced this violence, yet can be found directly adjacent to much larger meteoritic components (chondrules or CAIs) that did. Additional components in the matrix of the most primitive carbonaceous chondrites and in some chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles include tiny nebular condensates, aggregates of condensates and partially annealed aggregates. Grains formed in violent transient events in the solar nebula did not come to equilibrium with their surroundings. To understand the formation and textures of these materials as well as their nebular abundances we must rely on Nucleation Theory and kinetic models of grain growth, coagulation and annealing. Such models have been very uncertain in the past: we will discuss the steps we are taking to increase their reliability.

Nuth, Joseph A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Remotely Sensed and Modeled Soil Moisture at Forested and Unforested Sites

Soil moisture is an important driver for forest ecosystems, influencing fire occurrence and extent, insect and pathogen impacts, and tree growth, which creates a need for regular, globally extensive soil moisture information that only satellite-based sensors or models can achieve. However, the reliability of soil moisture measurements in forests is not well understood due to a lack of suitable validation sites (especially relative to unforested ecosystems) and interference caused by high vegetation water content on remotely sensed measurements; although recent studies have started to address this gap [1], [2], [3], [4]. Here we validate the performance of multiyear remotely sensed (SMAP/Sentinel), remotely sensed data assimilation modelled (SMAP-L4), and modelled (NLDAS) surface and root zone (0-1 m) soil moisture datasets with data from in-situ sensors at 39 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites throughout the contiguous US. Due to differences in spatial resolution, NEON soil moisture (~0.2 km measurement zone) correlations were expected to be stronger with the SMAP/Sentinel product (3 km resolution) than with coarser resolution SMAP-L4 (9 km resolution) or NLDAS products (13 km resolution). However, given the sensitivity of satellite measurements to vegetation water content we expected a deterioration in the correlations based on remotely sensed measurements (SMAP/Sentinel and SMAP-L4) as aboveground biomass increased, whereas the model-based data (NLDAS) was expected to be largely insensitive to vegetation type. We recognize that the SMAP/Sentinel product was developed for unforested regions, therefore our application is outside its primary use case. Soil moisture is measured at up to 8 depths in five soil plots spaced up to 40 m apart at each NEON terrestrial site. Correlation parameters were calculated for the three remotely sensed and modelled data products relative to in-situ measurement following Entekhabi et al. [5]. The datasets comprised 94 (SMAP-L4), 28 (SMAP/Sentinel), and 106 (NLDAS) sites-years for surface soils and 13 (SMAP-L4) and 14 (NLDAS) site-years for the root zone. At unforested sites, the performance of the three remotely sensed and modelled data products was similar for surface soils (Table 1). For example, unbiased RMSD (ubRMSD), which SMAP uses as its primary performance metric [6], ranged from 0.05 to 0.06 m3 m-3 (Table 1), indicating the ability of all three products to track changes in soil moisture over time. The performance of the three products deteriorated at forested sites, however, while the difference in performance was modest for SMAP-L4 and NLDAS, the deterioration in SMAP/Sentinel performance was substantial. For instance, SMAP/Sentinel ubRMSD increased from 0.06 to 0.11 m3 m-3 and absolute mean difference (Abs MD; which includes measurement bias and spatial representativeness errors) increased from 0.06 to 0.16 m3 m-3, indicating both a reduction in ability to track temporal changes and absolute amounts of soil moisture in forest ecosystems. SMAP-L4 and NLDAS had lower unbiased RMSD for root zone (0-1 m) than surface soils at both forested and unforested sites (Tables 1 and 2; SMAP/Sentinel does not produce a root zone measurement). However, in most cases the correlation coefficient (r) was lower for the root zone than surface soils, suggesting the lower unbiased RMSD may be attributed to greater temporal stability of soil moisture in the root zone rather than improved data product performance. Mean difference and absolute mean difference, which encompass measurement bias and spatial representativeness errors, were greater for root zone than surface soils at unforested sites for both data products, but the opposite was generally true at forested sites. As with surface soils, there was relatively little change in the performance of SMAP-L4 and NLDAS between the unforested and forested sites. In summary, all three data products were able to adequately represent soil moisture at unforested sites, at least when aggregating across sites. However, while the performance of all three products deteriorated at forested sites, SMAP-L4 and NLDAS maintained sufficient performance to remain suitable for some use cases (ubRMSD <0.06 m3 m-3 and RMSD <0.13 m3 m-3). In contrast, the relatively poorer performance of the SMAP/Sentinel product at forested sites seems insufficient for most use cases (ubRMSD >0.1 m3 m-3 and RMSD >0.2 m3 m-3). We attribute the large reduction in the performance of the SMAP/Sentinel product in forests to its use of C-band wavelengths, which are particularly sensitive to vegetation interference, and apparently outweighed any gains provided by its higher spatial resolution. A combined SMAP/NISAR soil moisture product may provide improved performance relative to SMAP/Sentinel due to NISAR’s use of L-band wavelengths, which are less sensitive to vegetation (NISAR is scheduled for launch in early 2024).

Edward Ayres↗
NASA NTRS2001

Interface Pattern Selection in Directional Solidification

The central focus of this research is to establish key scientific concepts that govern the selection of cellular and dendritic patterns during the directional solidification of alloys. Ground-based studies have established that the conditions under which cellular and dendritic microstructures form are precisely where convection effects are dominant in bulk samples. Thus, experimental data can not be obtained terrestrially under pure diffusive regime. Furthermore, reliable theoretical models are not yet possible which can quantitatively incorporate fluid flow in the pattern selection criterion. Consequently, microgravity experiments on cellular and dendritic growth are designed to obtain benchmark data under diffusive growth conditions that can be quantitatively analyzed and compared with the rigorous theoretical model to establish the fundamental principles that govern the selection of specific microstructure and its length scales. In the cellular structure, different cells in an array are strongly coupled so that the cellular pattern evolution is controlled by complex interactions between thermal diffusion, solute diffusion and interface effects. These interactions give infinity of solutions, and the system selects only a narrow band of solutions. The aim of this investigation is to obtain benchmark data and develop a rigorous theoretical model that will allow us to quantitatively establish the physics of this selection process.

Trivedi, Rohit↗
NASA NTRS2015

Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Use and Yield of Irrigated Sugarcane in South Africa

Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa (a water-scarce country) are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. Although previous work has been done in this regard, methodologies and results vary considerably. The objectives were (1) to estimate likely impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, water use and irrigation demand at three irrigated sugarcane production sites in South Africa (Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy) for current (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios, using an approach based on the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols; and (2) to assess the suitability of this methodology for investigating climate change impacts on sugarcane production. Future climate datasets were generated using the Delta downscaling method and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of 734 ppm(A2 emissions scenario). Yield and water use were simulated using the DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model. Irrigated cane yields are expected to increase at all three sites (between 11 and 14%), primarily due to increased interception of radiation as a result of accelerated canopy development. Evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements increased by 11% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand. Sucrose yields are expected to decline because of increased consumption of photo-assimilate for structural growth and maintenance respiration. Crop responses in canopy development and yield formation differed markedly between the crop cycles investigated. Possible agronomic implications of these results include reduced weed control costs due to shortened periods of partial canopy, a need for improved efficiency of irrigation to counter increased demands, and adjustments to ripening and harvest practices to counter decreased cane quality and optimize productivity. Although the Delta climate data downscaling method is considered robust, accurate and easily-understood, it does not change the future number of rain-days per month. The impacts of this and other climate data simplifications ought to be explored in future work. Shortcomings of the DSSAT-Canegro model include the simulated responses of phenological development, photosynthesis and respiration processes to high temperatures, and the disconnect between simulated biomass accumulation and expansive growth. Proposed methodology refinements should improve the reliability of predicted climate change impacts on sugarcane yield.

Climate change↗
NASA NTRS1986

Space station Ada runtime support for nested atomic transactions

The Space Station Data Management System (DMS), associated computing subsystems, and applications have varying degrees of reliability associated with their operation. A model has been developed (McKay '86) which allows the DMS runtime environment to appear as an Ada virtual machine to applications executing within it. This model is modular, flexible, and dynamically configurable to allow for evolution and growth over time. Support for Fault-tolerant computing is included within this model. The basic primitive involved in this support is based on atomic actions (Grey '78). An atomic action possesses two fundamental properties: (1) it is indivisible with respect to concurrent actions, and (2) it is indivisible with respect to failure. A transaction is a collection of atomic actions which collectively appear to be one action. Transactions may be nested, providing even more powerful support for reliability. A proposed approach is described for providing support for nested atomic transactions within the Ada runtime model developed for the Space Station environment. The level of support is modular, flexible and dynamically configurable just like the overall runtime support environment.

Monteiro, Edward J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Technology research for strapdown inertial experiment and digital flight control and guidance

A helicopter flight-test program to evaluate the performance of Honeywell's Tetrad - a strapdown, laser gyro, inertial navitation system is discussed. The results of 34 flights showed a mean final navigational velocity error of 5.06 knots, with a standard deviation of 3.84 knots; a corresponding mean final position error of 2.66 n.mi., with a standard deviation of 1.48 n.m.; and a modeled mean-position-error growth rate for the 34 tests of 1.96 knots, with a standard deviation of 1.09 knots. Tetrad's four-ring laser gyros provided reliable and accurate angular rate sensing during the test program and on sensor failures were detected during the evaluation. Criteria suitable for investigating cockpit systems in rotorcraft were developed. This criteria led to the development of two basic simulators. The first was a standard simulator which could be used to obtain baseline information for studying pilot workload and interactions. The second was an advanced simulator which integrated the RODAAS developed by Honeywell into this simulator. The second area also included surveying the aerospace industry to determine the level of use and impact of microcomputers and related components on avionics systems.

Carestia, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

Hihn, Jairus↗
NASA NTRS1999

Viscoplastic Constitutive Theory Demonstrated for Monolithic Ceramic Materials

Development of accurate three-dimensional (multiaxial) inelastic stress-strain models is critical in utilizing advanced ceramics for challenging 21st century high-temperature structural applications. The current state of the art uses elastic stress fields as a basis for both subcritical crack growth and creep life prediction efforts aimed at predicting the time dependent reliability response of ceramic components subjected to elevated service temperatures. However, to successfully design components that will meet tomorrow's challenging requirements, design engineers must recognize that elastic predictions are inaccurate for these materials when subjected to high-temperature service conditions such as those encountered in advanced heat engine components. Analytical life prediction methodologies developed for advanced ceramics and other brittle materials must employ accurate constitutive models that capture the inelastic response exhibited by these materials at elevated service temperatures. A constitutive model recently developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center helps address this issue by accounting for the time-dependent (inelastic) material deformation phenomena (e.g., creep, rate sensitivity, and stress relaxation) exhibited by monolithic ceramics exposed to high-temperature service conditions. In addition, the proposed formulation is based on a threshold function that is sensitive to hydrostatic stress and allows different behavior in tension and compression, reflecting experimental observations obtained for these material systems.

Janosik, Lesley A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Phosphate Reactions as Mechanisms of High-Temperature Lubrication

One of the major problems preventing the operation of advanced gas turbine engines at higher temperatures is the inability of currently used liquid lubricants to survive at these higher temperatures under friction and wear conditions. Current state-of-the-art organic liquid lubricants rapidly degrade at temperatures above 300 C; hence some other form of lubrication is necessary. Vapor-phase lubrication is a promising new technology for high-temperature lubrication. This lubrication method employs a liquid phosphate ester that is vaporized and delivered to bearings or gears; the vapor reacts with the metal surfaces, generating a solid lubricious film that has proven very stable at high temperatures. In this study, solid lubricious films were grown on cast-iron foils in order to obtain reaction and diffusion rate data to help characterize the growth mechanism. A phenomenological mathematical model of the film deposition process was derived incorporating transport and kinetic parameters that were coupled to the experimental data. This phenomenological model can now be reliably used as a predictive and scale-up tool for future vapor-phase lubrication studies.

Nagarajan, Anitha↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Crew Time for Maintenance and Repair Activities for Lunar Surface Missions

NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, understanding how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes is vital for future mission planning. Past work has been done using historical International Space Station (ISS) data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available datasets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat (SH), and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA ISS maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases: the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS). Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair time for each failure and repair event. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to ensure a significant sample size for each class and accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time to Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. The authors applied these modeling methods to a case study of a crewed mission to the planned SH and produced expected corrective maintenance crew time distributions. The results produced an expected corrective maintenance crew time at over 24 hours per mission, and a maintenance crew time distribution that reflects the importance of planning for sufficient maintenance requirements each mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.

Crew Time↗