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DOE OSTI2022

Marine renewable energy for Arctic observations

Arctic observations are becoming increasingly valuable as researchers investigate climate change and its associated concerns, such as decreasing sea ice and increasing ship traffic. Networks of sensors with frequent sampling capabilities are needed to run forecast models, improve navigation, and inform climate research. Sampling frequency and deployment duration are currently constrained by battery power limitations. In-situ power generation using marine renewable energy sources such as waves and currents can be used to circumvent this constraint. Wave and current resources vary spatially and temporally in the Arctic, with some locations and seasons being better suited for marine renewable energy power generation. Locations and seasons with small resources may still be able to use marine renewable energy because of the low power requirements of the instruments. In this study, we describe the wave and current resources in the Arctic, outline the electricity generation developments that are needed to utilize the resources, and suggest use cases. Wave and current energy converters developed to power observations in the Arctic could also be used to power observations at lower latitudes. Marine renewable energy has the potential to decrease dependence on batteries and improve data collection capabilities in the Arctic; however, this would require the development of new low power technologies that can operate in extreme Arctic environments.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Distribution Grid Resilience Through Model Predictive Controller Enabled Prioritized Load Restoration Strategy

Effective resilience improvement strategies enable the power grid to cope with disruptive extreme events. Most power grid outages are caused by disruptions in distribution grids. Motivated by the urgent need for power system resilience research, this paper proposes a priority-weighted optimal load restoration technique to enhance the resilience of distribution grids against extreme events. The proposed technique is based on smart distribution technology and framed as sequential multi-step decision process (MDP) and mixed integer linear program (MILP). It is formulated as optimal control problem with a model predictive control (MPC) approach. We applied the devised MILP-MPC-based load restoration technique to a simplified single-bus version of the IEEE 13-bus distribution system with integrated distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind turbine, photovoitaic array, microturbine, and energy storage device. The technique executes a reducing and rolling horizon optimization in each control step in real-time using the forecasted information of the renewables, the fuel status of the microturbine and the state of charge of the energy storage device. We consider an extreme event which triggered outage of the upstream utility grid and caused islanded operation of the distribution grid. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed MPC approach in restoring the distribution grid loads based on their priority during the main grid outage-caused islanded operation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Distribution Grid Resilience Through Model Predictive Controller Enabled Prioritized Load Restoration Strategy: Preprint

Effective resilience improvement strategies enable the power grid to cope with disruptive extreme events. Most power grid outages are caused by disruptions in distribution grids. Motivated by the urgent need for power system resilience research, this paper proposes a priority-weighted optimal load restoration technique to enhance the resilience of distribution grids against extreme events. The proposed technique is based on smart distribution technology and framed as sequential multi-step decision process (MDP) and mixed integer linear program (MILP). It is formulated as optimal control problem with a model predictive control (MPC) approach. We applied the devised MILP-MPC-based load restoration technique to a simplified single-bus version of the IEEE 13-bus distribution system with integrated distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind turbine, photovoltaic array, microturbine, and energy storage device. The technique executes a reducing and rolling horizon optimization in each control step in real-time using the forecasted information of the renewables, the fuel status of the microturbine and the state of charge of the energy storage device. We consider an extreme event which triggered outage of the upstream utility grid and caused islanded operation of the distribution grid. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed MPC approach in restoring the distribution grid loads based on their priority during the main grid outage-caused islanded operation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Distribution Grid Resilience Through Model Predictive Controller Enabled Prioritized Load Restoration Strategy

Effective resilience improvement strategies enable the power grid to cope with disruptive extreme events. Most power grid outages are caused by disruptions in distribution grids. Motivated by the urgent need for power system resilience research, this paper proposes a priority-weighted optimal load restoration technique to enhance the resilience of distribution grids against extreme events. The proposed technique is based on smart distribution technology and framed as sequential multi-step decision process (MDP) and mixed integer linear program (MILP). It is formulated as optimal control problem with a model predictive control (MPC) approach. We applied the devised MILP-MPC-based load restoration technique to a simplified single-bus version of the IEEE 13-bus distribution system with integrated distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind turbine, photovoltaic array, microturbine, and energy storage device. The technique executes a reducing and rolling horizon optimization in each control step in real-time using the forecasted information of the renewables, the fuel status of the microturbine and the state of charge of the energy storage device. We consider an extreme event which triggered outage of the upstream utility grid and caused islanded operation of the distribution grid. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed MPC approach in restoring the distribution grid loads based on their priority during the main grid outage-caused islanded operation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2023

BuildingsBench: A Benchmark for Universal Building Load Forecasting [SWR-23-51]

The residential and commercial building stock in the United States is responsible for a significant percentage of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Electrification of end-uses, as well as decarbonizing the electrical grid through renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, constitutes the pathway to zero-emission buildings. Forecasting day-ahead building energy consumption is an integral part of this solution. Currently, specialized forecasting models are hand-made for each individual building, which is time-consuming, expensive, and leads to duplicated efforts. BuildingsBench is a Python software framework for training and comparing generalized machine learning models for universal building load forecasting. This challenge tasks a single foundational model to generalize its forecasts for a wide variety of buildings, across geographic regions, building types, weather patterns, and more. This software provide code for pre-training such models and subsequently evaluating their performance on a suite of hundreds of diverse real and synthetic buildings. BuildingsBench is a platform for: - Large-scale pretraining with the synthetic Buildings-900K dataset for short-term load forecasting (STLF). Buildings-900K is statistically representative of the entire U.S. building stock and is extracted from the NREL End-Use Load Profiles database. - Benchmarking on two tasks evaluating generalization: zero-shot STLF and transfer learning for STLF. We provide an index-based PyTorch Dataset for large-scale pretraining, easy data loading for multiple real building energy consumption datasets as PyTorch Tensors or Pandas DataFrames, simple (persistence) to advanced (transformer) baselines, metrics management, and more.

Emami, Patrick↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wattile: Probabilistic Deep Learning-based Forecasting of Building Energy Consumption [SWR-20-94]

Accurate energy forecasting is becoming critical due to many reasons: i ) optimal distributed energy resources operations and dispatch, ii) fault detection and diagnostics, and iii) meeting operational energy efficiency targets. Wattile uses deep learning (DL) for the building's short-term load forecasting application. Two specific types of neural networks called, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) models are used to make predictions. Forecasting models are trained using online historical weather and occupancy indicator data streams from the Intelligent Campus Program's data acquisition systems at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for main meters and sub-meters of multiple building types. These models use probabilistic methods to provide quantile-based forecasts in addition to nominal conditional median predictions of electricity consumption.

Frank, Stephen↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Data-Driven Method for Adaptive Reserve Requirement Estimation via Probabilistic Net Load Forecasting

The University of Colorado Boulder Boulder, CO, 80309, USA With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, power systems are subject to more uncertainty. This makes power system reserve scheduling more challenging. Most of the current reserve requirement determination methods calculate reserve requirements based on historical data, which does not consider the real-time or future system uncertainty. In this paper, a data-driven method is developed to determine the non-spinning reserve requirement (NSRR) in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. The method follows the procedure of the current ERCOT method while adaptively determining the NSRR based on probabilistic net load forecasts. Case studies with two years of ERCOT data show that the developed method significantly reduces the NSRR by introducing an adaptive temporal resolution and update rate. Sensitivity analysis with different forecasting and percentile thresholds indicates the flexibility of the developed method.

non-spinning reserve↗

DOE OSTI2022

Field Study of Grid-connected Heat Pump Water Heaters in the Southeast U.S.: The Next Right Thing

The integration of grid-connected functionality and advanced control algorithms into heat pump water heaters (HPWH) offers the capability to shift load with minimal customer impact. This capability provides a flexible grid resource to utilities, while the increased energy efficiency of HPWHs offers customers a lower electric bill. The combined utility/customer value from grid-connected HPWHs is compelling in the Southeast U.S. where residential electric water heating is prevalent and utility load management is common. This paper presents the results of a HPWH load shifting study conducted in Central Florida using the CTA-2045 standard. Building upon previous research in the Pacific Northwest, this study consisted of approximately 45 occupied homes equipped with HPWHs undergoing load shifting strategies weekly for over a year. Curtailment durations ranged from three to five hours in the morning, and four to five hours in the evening to coincide with high-value periods for utility coincident load for system-wide electric demand reductions. During the morning and afternoon, a one- or two-hour load-up event preceded curtailment. Baseline data were collected across varied Florida weather in which no load shifting events were implemented. Results from traditional load shifting strategies were analyzed across seasons and used to devise unique load shifting approaches to increase renewable energy use during periods of high solar energy generation. Regional impacts are forecasted for large-scale implementation of strategies. Lessons learned and recommendations are also provided for how utilities, manufacturers, and regional planners can maximize load shifting benefits from grid-connected HPWHs.

Heat pump water heaters, residential building, loa↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development—demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors—this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value, and cogeneration of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable, and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting time scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting EV Charging Demand on the Distribution System

The U.S. transportation and electricity sectors have historically operated independently, but the growth of electric vehicles (EVs) is driving their convergence. After decades of stagnant demand, utilities must prepare for rising load growth, driven in part by transportation electrification. Utilities must anticipate when and where these new loads will materialize to effectively manage EV growth and maintain grid reliability. This presentation outlines NREL's approach to developing high-resolution EV load datasets for distribution planning, with insights from the Multi-State Transportation Electrification Impact Study on EV and load forecasting, infrastructure requirements, and managed charging strategies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal control technology for distributed energy resources

Devices and methods of allocating distributed energy resources (DERs) to loads connected to a microgrid based on the cost of the DERs are provided. The devices and methods may determine one or more microgrid measurements. The devices and methods may determine one or more real-time electricity prices associated with utility generation sources. The devices and methods may determine one or more forecasts. The devices and methods may determine a cost associated with one or more renewable energy sources within the microgrid. The devices and methods may determine an allocation of the renewable sources to one or more loads in the microgrid.

Meeker, Richard H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimal control technology for distributed energy resources

Meeker, Richard H.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Offshore Wind Project Study (Final Technical Report)

Within the Long Island electric service territory and throughout New York State there is increasing interest in and mandate for increasing clean energy technologies and renewable energy generation while reducing dependency on fossil fuels for electric production with goal of a carbon free system by 2040. This report discusses the implications of the reduction of forecasted load in the Long Island electric service territory and the impact of energy efficiency; increasing reliance of wind and other renewable resources on the transmission system; opportunities for interconnecting these resources; and reductions on the reliance of baseload fossil fueled power facilities over the coming years.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Day-Ahead PV Estimation Using Autoencoder-LSTM and Persistence Model

Inherent variability in photovoltaic (PV) and associated impacts on power systems is a challenging problem for both the PV owners and the grid operators. Existing statistical and machine learning algorithms typically work well for weather conditions similar to historical data. Furthermore, uncertain weather conditions pose a great challenge to the estimation accuracy of the estimation models. With the enhanced integration of intelligent electronic devices and the realization of associated automation in the power grid, renewable energy data is becoming more accessible, which can be utilized by deep learning models and improve the PV power generation estimation accuracy. In this paper, a hybrid deep learning model driven by external weather data is proposed to do day-ahead PV output forecasting at 15-minute-interval. The proposed model is motivated by the recent advancement of Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) networks and AutoEncoder (AE), which estimates uncertainties in sequence while making the prediction for complex weather conditions. Meanwhile, the persistence model (PM) is used to predict continuous sunny weather conditions. The forecasting result is validated with data from multiple locations

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Path to Navigating the Storm: Load Forecasting and Increasing Resilience in Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) provided a comprehensive analysis of pathways for Puerto Rico to achieve its goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050, based on extensive stakeholder input. The study illuminates immediate and longer-term investments needed to achieve reliability while pursuing Puerto Rico's energy goals and addressing critical energy needs. Expected benefits of these investments include improvements in safety, security, health, and economic opportunity.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dispatch optimization of a concentrating solar power system under uncertain solar irradiance and energy prices

The integration of thermal energy storage into a concentrating solar power system allows for mitigating some of the risk associated with uncertain solar irradiance and uncertain energy prices. We solve a 48 h dispatch optimization model with continually updated conditional point forecasts of both direct normal irradiance (DNI) and electricity prices with a rolling-horizon scheme at hourly resolution over the course of a year. Joint, conditional forecasts for DNI and prices are formed using an autoregressive moving-average time series model with exogenous weather predictors. We guide dispatch using a mixed-integer programming model, but in order to evaluate performance we use the System Advisor Model (SAM) of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. SAM is a techno-economic simulation model that accounts for plant thermodynamics with higher fidelity. Our conditional DNI forecasts improve annual revenue by 4%–12% over using historical forecasts based on data from previous years. Conditional price forecasts improve annual revenue by 6%–19% in the real-time market over analogous historical forecasts. Updating these forecasts every six hours, rather than every 24 h, further improves annual revenue by 5%–6%. Here, we also investigate a method that values terminal inventory in our dispatch optimization model, again when used in a rolling-horizon scheme.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhancing flexibility for climate change using seasonal energy storage (aquifer thermal energy storage) in distributed energy systems

Long-term energy storage is expected to play a vital role in the deep decarbonization of building energy sectors, while enhancing the flexibility of buildings to withstand future climate variations. However, it is challenging to design distributed multi-energy systems (DMES) while taking into account the uncertainties introduced by climate change, since stochastic optimization of such systems is difficult. The present study introduces a stochastic optimization model to address this bottleneck, taking into account DMES including aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) as the long-term thermal storage. For the first time, a novel optimization algorithm links ATES with the DMES optimization model with the support of a simplified geotechnical model. Subsequently, a case study was conducted, focusing on a residential district in Chicago where the impact of future climate condition, energy demand, and solar and wind energy potentials were evaluated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) data (up to 2080) and the EnergyPlus model. The study revealed that ATES is an attractive way to improve the renewable energy penetration level and minimize the dependence on fossil fuels with reasonable support from the grid to assist the fluctuations in both demand and generation. Furthermore, ATES notably reduces fuel consumption and dependence while greatly enhancing the flexibility of the energy system to withstand fluctuations in demand and renewable energy generation brought by future climate variations. These qualities will make ATES an important part of distributed energy systems, even though it is not currently the lowest cost alternative due to lack of technology maturity. Furthermore, the design platform introduced in the present study can be used to design DMES enhancing flexibility to accommodate future climate variations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modern deep neural networks for Direct Normal Irradiance forecasting: A classification approach

The escalating energy demand and the adverse environmental impacts of fossil-fuel use necessitate a shift towards cleaner and renewable alternatives. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology emerges as a promising solution, offering a carbon-free alternative for power generation. The efficiency and profitability of CSP depend on the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) component of solar radiation; hence, accurate DNI forecasting can help optimize CSP plants’ operations and performance. The unpredictable nature of weather phenomena, particularly cloud cover, introduces uncertainty into DNI projections. Existing DNI forecasting models use meteorological factors, which are both challenging to estimate numerically over short prediction windows and expensive to model through data at a sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution. This research addresses the challenge by presenting a novel approach that formulates DNI prediction as a multi-class classification problem, departing from conventional regression-based methods. The primary objective of this classification framework is to identify optimal periods aligning with specific operational thresholds for CSP plants, contributing to enhanced dispatch optimization strategies. We model the DNI classification problem using four advanced deep neural networks – rectified linear unit (ReLU) networks, 1D residual networks (ResNets), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks, and transformers – achieving accuracies up to 93.5% without requiring meteorological parameters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗