Characterization of long period return values of extreme daily temperature and precipitation in the CMIP6 models: Part 2, projections of future change
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Universality of spin configuration restoration is studied in Heisenberg spin glasses: a dilute magnetic semiconductor Cd{sub 55}Mn{sub 45}Te as well as a dilute magnetic alloy Cu{sub 97}Mn{sub 3}. Reversions of the relaxations of magnetization were observed in both systems undergoing positive/negative temperature cycling under a constant magnetic field. Because the magnetization mirrors evolution of the spin configuration, these reversions indicate that the spin configurations are spontaneously restored to the initially stabilized states when the temperature is returned to the original. Whereas such spin restoration does not occur if the spin glasses are simply frozen, it is possible in the alternative ghost domain scenario of the droplet picture. This finding thus provides fresh insight into the nature of glassy systems.
Better insulated and tighter homes can often use a single heating plant for both space and domestic water heating. These systems, called dual integrated appliances (DIA) or combination systems, can operate at high efficiency and eliminate combustion safety issues associated by using a condensing, sealed combustion heating plant. Funds were received to install 400 DIAs in Minnesota low-incomehomes. The NorthernSTAR DIA laboratory was created to identify proper system components, designs, operating parameters, and installation procedures to assure high efficiency of field installed systems. Tests verified that heating loads up to 57,000 Btu/hr can be achieved with acceptable return water temperatures and supply air temperatures.
Even though new homes constructed with hydronic heat comprise only 3% of the market (US Census Bureau 2009), of the 115 million existing homes in the United States, almost 14 million of those homes (11%) are heated with steam or hot water systems according to 2009 US Census data. Therefore, improvements in hydronic system performance could result in significant energy savings in the US. When operating properly, the combination of a gas-fired condensing boiler with baseboard convectors and an indirect water heater is a viable option for high-efficiency residential space heating in cold climates. Based on previous research efforts, however, it is apparent that these types of systems are typically not designed and installed to achieve maximum efficiency. Furthermore, guidance on proper design and commissioning for heating contractors and energy consultants is hard to find and is not comprehensive. Through modeling and monitoring, CARB sought to determine the optimal combination(s) of components - pumps, high efficiency heat sources, plumbing configurations and controls - that result in the highest overall efficiency for a hydronic system when baseboard convectors are used as the heat emitter. The impact of variable-speed pumps on energy use and system performance was also investigated along with the effects of various control strategies and the introduction of thermal mass.
Condensing boiler technology has been around for many years and has proven to be a durable, reliable method of heating. Based on previous research efforts, however, it is apparent that these types of systems are not designed and installed to achieve maximum efficiency. For example, in order to protect their equipment in the field, manufacturers of low-mass condensing boilers typically recommend design strategies and components that ensure steady, high flow rates through the heat exchangers, such as primary-secondary piping, which ultimately result in decreased efficiency.
Better insulated and tighter homes can often use a single heating plant for both space and domestic water heating. These systems, called dual integrated appliances (DIA) or combination systems, can operate at high efficiency and eliminate combustion safety issues associated by using a condensing, sealed combustion heating plant. Funds were received to install 400 DIAs in Minnesota low-income homes. The NorthernSTAR DIA laboratory was created to identify proper system components, designs, operating parameters, and installation procedures to assure high efficiency of field installed systems. Tests verified that heating loads up to 57,000 Btu/hr can be achieved with acceptable return water temperatures and supply air temperatures.
An arrangement for sensing the fluid separation along a surface which employs a thermally insulating element having a continuous surface blending into and forming a part of the fluid flow surface is described. A sudden decrease in the temperature of the downstream sensor conductor and concomitant increase in the temperature of the upstream sensor conductor is an indication of the separation. When the temperatures are returned to the state achieved during normal flow, the indicator thereby indicates the normal, attached fluid flow. The conductors may be, for example, wires or thin films, and should be within the viscous sub-layer of the expected fluid flow. A single heater and several pairs of sensors and corresponding sensor conductors may be used to detect not only the fluid flow and the separation, but the direction of the fluid flow, over the fluid flow surface.
Around 1970, the Y-F-12A loads and structures efforts focused on numerous technological issues that needed defining with regard to aircraft that incorporate hot structures in the design. Laboratory structural heating test technology with infrared systems was largely created during this program. The program demonstrated the ability to duplicate the complex flight temperatures of an advanced supersonic airplane in a ground-based laboratory. The ability to heat and load an advanced operational aircraft in a laboratory at high temperatures and return it to flight status without adverse effects was demonstrated. The technology associated with measuring loads with strain gages on a hot structure was demonstrated with a thermal calibration concept. The results demonstrated that the thermal stresses were significant although the airplane was designed to reduce thermal stresses. Considerable modeling detail was required to predict the heat transfer and the corresponding structural characteristics. The overall YF-12A research effort was particularly productive, and a great deal of flight, laboratory, test and computational data were produced and cross-correlated.
The Mars 2020 entry vehicle successfully delivered the Perseverance rover to the Martian surface on 18 February 2021. The entry vehicle aeroshell was shielded from aerodynamic heating with a thermal protection system (TPS) made of three different ablative materials. This paper provides an overview of the methodology and assumptions employed for the thermal sizing and design of the Mars 2020 aeroshell TPS. The sizing results demonstrate that the as-built thicknesses of the TPS materials were sufficient to withstand the predicted aerothermal environments without exceeding temperature limits of the underlying aeroshell structure. This paper also provides an overview of the ground testing performed in NASA arc jet facilities to verify the performance of flight lot TPS materials. Finally, temperature data returned by thermocouples embedded in the flight vehicle TPS are compared with predictions by the thermal response models used in pre-flight TPS sizing.
The Mars 2020 entry vehicle successfully delivered the Perseverance rover to the Martian surface on 18 February 2021. The entry vehicle aeroshell was shielded from aerodynamic heating with a thermal protection system (TPS) made of three different ablative materials. This paper provides an overview of the methodology and assumptions employed for the thermal sizing and design of the Mars 2020 aeroshell TPS. The sizing results demonstrate that the as-built thicknesses of the TPS materials were sufficient to withstand the predicted aerothermal environments without exceeding temperature limits of the underlying aeroshell structure. This paper also provides an overview of the ground testing performed in NASA arc jet facilities to verify the performance of flight lot TPS materials. Finally, temperature data returned by thermocouples embedded in the flight vehicle TPS are compared with predictions by the thermal response models used in pre-flight TPS sizing.
INTRODUCTION: The Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) is a widely used objective measure of sustained attention, alertness, and fatigue. Previous studies consistently show that prolonged wakefulness and disrupted sleep patterns lead to increased lapses of attention and slower reaction times. These findings have critical implications for various professions, including healthcare, aviation, transportation safety, and spaceflight. In this study, we employed linear mixed models (LMM) to investigate hourly-measured 5-minute PVT reaction times during one night of total sleep deprivation. Our goal was to characterize the contribution of homeostatic sleep pressure (time awake) and circadian phase (salivary melatonin levels) on the dynamics of PVT reaction time. MATERIALS & METHODS: Data from twelve human participants were used in the analysis. Participants were healthy non-smokers, aged 18 and 40, with normal sleep habits defined as Pittsburg Sleep Quality Index scores < 5, and Morningness – Eveningness Questionnaire scores > 42 and < 58, respectively. Participants followed a constant-routine protocol and arrived at the NASA sleep laboratory approximately 1 to 2 hours after their habitual waking time. Tympanic temperature was measured every 30 min to provide a real-time estimate of circadian phase. Participants were required to stay awake throughout the laboratory experiment, which continued until their tympanic temperature had returned to baseline levels. This approach ensured that we could capture each participant's circadian trough and recovery, typically occurring between 24 and 26 hours after waking. The PVT and saliva melatonin were measured every hour, starting approximately from 3 hours after awakening. More information about the measurement protocol can be found in the publication by Stone et al. We used PVT reaction times between 100 and 10000 ms to calculate Reciprocal Reaction Times (RRTs). LMM models were employed to assess the contribution of time awake and saliva melatonin levels on changes in RRTs. Two models were created: the first model treated time awake as a fixed effect and the second model considered both the salivary melatonin level and time awake as fixed effects. Participants were included as a random effect in both models. We compared the models using an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The models were computed using the 'lmer' function from the 'lme4' package in R, and LMM p-values were determined using Satterthwaite's method. RESULTS: We found that time awake had a statistically significant effect on PVT RRTs during one night of sleep deprivation [χ2 = 2132.4, df = 1, p < 0.001]. In addition, the model including both saliva melatonin levels and time awake was statistically significantly better than one that uses just time awake [χ2 = 17.4, df = 1, p < 0.001]. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: As expected, these preliminary results suggest that the time awake and circadian phase each contribute to performance reductions as measured by the PVT. Future analyses will explore the contributions of other factors to the model.
Beyond these initial system efficiency upgrades are an emerging class of Advanced Load Monitoring (ALM) aftermarket controllers that dynamically respond to the boiler load, with claims of 10% to 30% of fuel savings over a heating season. For hydronic boilers specifically, these devices perform load monitoring, with continuous measurement of supply and in some cases return water temperatures. Energy savings from these ALM controllers are derived from dynamic management of the boiler differential, where a microprocessor with memory of past boiler cycles prevents the boiler from firing for a period of time, to limit cycling losses and inefficient operation during perceived low load conditions. These differ from OTR controllers, which vary boiler setpoint temperatures with ambient conditions while maintaining a fixed differential. PARR installed and monitored the performance of one type of ALM controller, the M2G from Greffen Systems, at multifamily sites in the city of Chicago and its suburb Cary, IL, both with existing OTR control. Results show that energy savings depend on the degree to which boilers are over-sized for their load, represented by cycling rates. Also savings vary over the heating season with cycling rates, with greater savings observed in shoulder months. Over the monitoring period, over-sized boilers at one site showed reductions in cycling and energy consumption in line with prior laboratory studies, while less over-sized boilers at another site showed muted savings.
Even though new homes constructed with hydronic heat comprise only 3% of the market (US Census Bureau 2009), of the 115 million existing homes in the United States, almost 14 million of those homes (11%) are heated with steam or hot water systems according to 2009 US Census data. Therefore, improvements in hydronic system performance could result in significant energy savings in the US.
Condensing boiler technology has been around for many years and has proven to be a durable, reliable method of heating. Based on previous research efforts, however, it is apparent that these types of systems are not designed and installed to achieve maximum efficiency. For example, in order to protect their equipment in the field, manufacturers of low-mass condensing boilers typically recommend design strategies and components that ensure steady, high flow rates through the heat exchangers, such as primary-secondary piping, which ultimately result in decreased efficiency. There is also a significant lack of information for contractors on how to configure these systems to optimize overall efficiency. In response to these findings, researchers from Building America team Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings worked with industry partners to develop hydronic system designs that would address these issues and result in higher overall system efficiencies and improved response times.
Commercial hot water heating accounts for approximately 0.78 Quads of primary energy use with 0.44 Quads of this amount from natural gas fired heaters. An ammonia-water based commercial absorption system, if fully deployed, could achieve a high level of savings, much higher than would be possible by conversion to the high efficiency nonheat-pump gas fired alternatives. In comparison with air source electric heat pumps, the absorption system is able to maintain higher coefficients of performance in colder climates. The ammonia-water system also has the advantage of zero Ozone Depletion Potential and low Global Warming Potential. A thermodynamic model of a single effect ammonia-water absorption system for commercial space and water heating was developed, and its performance was investigated for a range of ambient and return water temperatures. This allowed for the development of a performance map which was then used in a building energy modeling software. Modeling of two commercial water heating systems was performed; one using an absorption heat pump and another using a condensing gas storage system. The energy and financial savings were investigated for a range of locations and climate zones in the southern and south central United States. A follow up paper will analyze northern and north/central regions. Results showed that the system using an absorption heat pump offers significant savings.
A method and apparatus for analyzing molten salt electrolyte. The method includes extracting a sample of a molten salt electrolyte from an electrorefiner or other process vessel or conduit; generating droplets from the sample, where the droplets are at a first temperature; transporting the droplets to detectors, where during transport, the droplets attain a second temperature that is lower than the first temperature; analyzing the droplets at or below the second temperature; and returning the droplets to the process. The apparatus includes a droplet generator; a sample transport mechanism; and at least one detector positioned above the sample transport mechanism.
Residential air conditioners and heat pumps often experience faults due to inadequate maintenance, which can severely reduce efficiency or even cause system failure. Common issues include dirty or clogged air filters and refrigerant leaks. These problems degrade performance and increase energy use and operating costs. This study presents a smart thermostat with embedded artificial intelligence to detect such faults and alert homeowners when maintenance is needed. The thermostat uses low-cost measurements—including return-air temperature, relative humidity, supply-air temperature, outdoor-air temperature, and condenser subcooling—to identify abnormal operations. Because different faults produce distinct response patterns, tailored algorithms are developed to recognize characteristic fault signatures. The investigation is built on a detailed co-simulation platform that couples EnergyPlus with the DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM). EnergyPlus represents the building’s dynamic environment, while HPDM is a high-fidelity, hardware-based model that can simulate fault-free performance as well as a wide range of faults, including gradual degradation such as minor refrigerant leakage. This platform provides a virtual training and testing environment that helps distinguish fault-induced behavior from normal operation and supports development of robust diagnostic algorithms. Using this framework, a Dynamic Bayesian Network was developed to identify two common faults—gradual refrigerant charge loss and indoor airflow blockage—and the AI-embedded thermostat was verified through annual building simulations.
The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are most subject to severe heat waves and droughts. Furthermore, the results indicate that most climate models tend to underestimate the historical annual temperature maxima over the United States and Greenland, while generally disagreeing in their simulations over cold regions. Return level analysis shows that with respect to the spatial patterns of the annual temperature maxima, there are good agreements between the CRU observations and most CMIP5 simulations. However, the magnitudes of the simulated annual temperature maxima differ substantially across individual models. Discrepancies are generally larger over higher latitudes and cold regions.