Considerations on Risk-Informed and Performance-Based Through a Data-Decision Lens
Panel presentation
97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
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Constellation Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): Design Consideration for the Crew Exploration Vehicle
Managed by NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, a pilot probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the NASA Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) was performed in early 2006. The PRA methods used follow the general guidance provided in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners'. Phased-mission based event trees and fault trees are used to model a lunar sortie mission of the CEV - involving the following phases: launch of a cargo vessel and a crew vessel; rendezvous of these two vessels in low Earth orbit; transit to th$: moon; lunar surface activities; ascension &om the lunar surface; and return to Earth. The analysis is based upon assumptions, preliminary system diagrams, and failure data that may involve large uncertainties or may lack formal validation. Furthermore, some of the data used were based upon expert judgment or extrapolated from similar components~systemsT. his paper includes a discussion of the system-level models and provides an overview of the analysis results used to identify insights into CEV risk drivers, and trade and sensitivity studies. Lastly, the PRA model was used to determine changes in risk as the system configurations or key parameters are modified.
Prassinos, Peter G.↗
Programmatic Considerations to Reduce the Risk of Adverse Renal Stone Events in Spaceflight
Introduction: Microgravity exposure may alter the likelihood that astronauts will experience renal stones. The potential risk includes both acute and chronic health issues, with the potential for significant impact on mission objectives. Methods: To understand the role of the NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) research agenda in both preventing and addressing renal stones in spaceflight, current astronaut epidemiologic data and a summary of programmatic considerations are reviewed. Results: Although there has never been a symptomatic renal stone event in a U.S. crewmember during spaceflight, urine chemistry has been altered - likely due to induced changes in renal physiology as a result of exposure to microgravity. This may predispose astronauts to stone formation, leading the HRP to conduct and sponsor research to: 1) understand the risk of stone formation in space; 2) prevent stones from forming; and 3) address stones that may form by providing novel diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. Discussion: The development of a renal stone during spaceflight is a significant medical concern that requires the HRP to minimize this risk by providing the ability to prevent, diagnose, monitor and treat the condition during spaceflight. A discussion of the risk as NASA understands it is followed by an overview of the multiple mitigations currently under study, including novel ultrasound techniques for stone detection and manipulation, and how they may function as part of a larger exploration medical system.
Antonsen, Erik↗
Shuttle Risk Progression: Use of the Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to Show Reliability Growth
It is important to the Space Shuttle Program (SSP), as well as future manned spaceflight programs, to understand the early mission risk and progression of risk as the program gains insights into the integrated vehicle through flight. The risk progression is important to the SSP as part of the documentation of lessons learned. The risk progression is important to future programs to understand reliability growth and the first flight risk. This analysis uses the knowledge gained from 30 years of operational flights and the current Shuttle PRA to calculate the risk of Loss of Crew and Vehicle (LOCV) at significant milestones beginning with the first flight. Key flights were evaluated based upon historical events and significant re-designs. The results indicated that the Shuttle risk tends to follow a step function as opposed to following a traditional reliability growth pattern where risk exponentially improves with each flight. In addition, it shows that risk can increase due to trading safety margin for increased performance or due to external events. Due to the risk drivers not being addressed, the risk did not improve appreciably during the first 25 flights. It was only after significant events occurred such as Challenger and Columbia, where the risk drivers were apparent, that risk was significantly improved. In addition, this paper will show that the SSP has reduced the risk of LOCV by almost an order of magnitude. It is easy to look back afte r 30 years and point to risks that are now obvious, however; the key is to use this knowledge to benefit other programs which are in their infancy stages. One lesson learned from the SSP is understanding risk drivers are essential in order to considerably reduce risk. This will enable the new program to focus time and resources on identifying and reducing the significant risks. A comprehensive PRA, similar to that of the Shuttle PRA, is an effective tool quantifying risk drivers if support from all of the stakeholders is given.
Hamlin, Teri L.↗
Operational Considerations for Oxygen Flammability Risks: Concentrated Oxygen Diffusion and Permeation Behaviors
Increased human spaceflight operations utilize oxygen concentrations that are frequently varied with use of concentrations up to 100 percent oxygen. Even after exiting a higher percentage oxygen environment, high oxygen concentrations can still be maintained due to material saturation and oxygen entrapment between barrier materials. This paper examines the material flammability concerns that arise from changing oxygen environments during spaceflight operations. We examine the time required for common spacecraft and spacesuit materials exposed to oxygen to return to reduced ignitability and flammability once removed from the increased concentration. Various common spacecraft materials were considered: spacecraft cabin environment foams, Extra Vehicular Mobility Unit materials and foams, Advanced Crew Escape Suit materials, and other materials of interest such as Cotton, Nomex^ HT90-40, and Tiburon Surgical Drape. This paper presents calculated diffusion coefficients derived from experimentally obtained oxygen transmission rates for the tested materials and the analytically derived times necessary for reduced flammability to be achieved based on NASA flammability criteria. Oxygen material saturation and entrapment scenarios are examined. Experimental verification data on oxygen diffusion in saturation scenarios are also presented and discussed. We examine how to use obtained data to address flammability concerns during operational planning to reduce the likelihood of fires while improving efficiency for procedures.
Harper, Susana↗
Considerations for the Risk-Informed Performance-Based Regulatory Treatment of Non-Core Sources of Radioactivity for Advanced Reactors
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Grabaskas, David (ORCID:0000000314813523)↗
Decision Points and Practical Considerations for AI Projects
In this presentation, I will present business-relevant decisions, risks, and considerations for practical implementations of AI projects. I will use energy efficiency and renewable energy AI projects at NREL as examples and case-studies highlighting the journey from concept to implementation. First, I present challenges, questions, and trade-offs related to system inputs: the data. Next, I will examine issues with system behavior and trust, presenting examples, risks, and mitigation strategies. Finally, I will discuss challenges to effective widespread deployment of AI systems including energy, compute, and time requirements.
AI↗
Integrated risk management
The purpose of this report is to first present a basis or foundation for the building of an integrated risk management plan and them to present the plan. The integration referred to is across both the temporal and the hierarchical dimensions. Complexity, consequence, and credibility seem to be driving the need for the consideration of risk. Reduction of personal bias and reproducibility of the decision making process seem to be driving the consideration of a formal risk plan. While risk can be used as either a selection tool or a control tool, this paper concentrates on the selection usage. Risk relies on stated purpose. The tightness of the definition of purpose and success is directly reflected in the definition and control of risk. Much of a risk management plan could be designed by the answers to the questions of why, what, who, when, and where. However, any plan must provide the following information about a threat or risk: likelihood, consequence, predictability, reliability, and reproducibility. While the environment at NASA is seen as warm, but not hot, for the introduction of a risk program, some encouragement is seen if the following problems are addressed: no champion, no commitment of resource, confused definitions, lack of direction and focus, a hard sell, NASA culture, many choices of assessment methods, and cost. The plan is designed to follow the normal method of doing work and is structured to follow either the work break down structure or a functional structure very well. The parts of the plan include: defining purpose and success, initial threat assessment, initial risk assessment, reconciling threats and parameters, putting part of the information down and factoring the information back into the decision process as it comes back up, and developing inferences. Two major suggestions are presented. One is to build an office of risk management to be used as a resource by managers in doing the risk process. Another is to form a pilot program to try out the details in the plan and modify the method where needed.
Hunsucker, J. L.↗
Evidence Report: Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Other Degenerative Tissue Effects from Radiation Exposure
Occupational radiation exposure from the space environment may result in non-cancer or non-CNS degenerative tissue diseases, such as cardiovascular disease, cataracts, and respiratory or digestive diseases. However, the magnitude of influence and mechanisms of action of radiation leading to these diseases are not well characterized. Radiation and synergistic effects of radiation cause DNA damage, persistent oxidative stress, chronic inflammation, and accelerated tissue aging and degeneration, which may lead to acute or chronic disease of susceptible organ tissues. In particular, cardiovascular pathologies such as atherosclerosis are of major concern following gamma-ray exposure. This provides evidence for possible degenerative tissue effects following exposures to ionizing radiation in the form of the GCR or SPEs expected during long-duration spaceflight. However, the existence of low dose thresholds and dose-rate and radiation quality effects, as well as mechanisms and major risk pathways, are not well-characterized. Degenerative disease risks are difficult to assess because multiple factors, including radiation, are believed to play a role in the etiology of the diseases. As additional evidence is pointing to lower, space-relevant thresholds for these degenerative effects, particularly for cardiovascular disease, additional research with cell and animal studies is required to quantify the magnitude of this risk, understand mechanisms, and determine if additional protection strategies are required.The NASA PEL (Permissive Exposure Limit)s for cataract and cardiovascular risks are based on existing human epidemiology data. Although animal and clinical astronaut data show a significant increase in cataracts following exposure and a reassessment of atomic bomb (A-bomb) data suggests an increase in cardiovascular disease from radiation exposure, additional research is required to fully understand and quantify these adverse outcomes at lower doses (less than 0.5 gray (SI unit for ionizing radiation dosage, i.e. one joule of radiation energy per one kilogram of matter)) to facilitate risk prediction. This risk has considerable uncertainty associated with it, and no acceptable model for projecting degenerative tissue risk is currently available. In particular, risk factors such as obesity, alcohol, and tobacco use can act as confounding factors that contribute to the large uncertainties. The PELs could be violated under certain scenarios, including following a large SPE (solar proton event) or long-term GCR (galactic cosmic ray) exposure. Specifically, for a Mars mission, the accumulated dose is sufficiently high that epidemiology data and preliminary risk estimates suggest a significant risk for cardiovascular disease. Ongoing research in this area is intended to provide the evidence base for accurate risk quantification to determine criticality for extended duration missions. Data specific to the space radiation environment must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of this risk to decrease the uncertainty in current PELs and to determine if additional protection strategies are required. New research results could lead to estimates of cumulative radiation risk from CNS and degenerative tissue diseases that, when combined with the cancer risk, may have major negative impacts on mission design, costs, schedule, and crew selection. The current report amends an earlier report (Human Research Program Requirements Document, HRP-47052, Rev. C, dated Jan 2009) in order to provide an update of evidence since 2009.
Patel, Zarana↗
Human subjects concerns in ground based ECLSS testing - Managing uncertainty in closely recycled systems
U.S. space missions have to this point used water either made on board or carried from earth and discarded after use. For Space Station Freedom, long duration life support will include air and water recycling using a series of physical-chemical subsystems. The Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) designed for this application must be tested extensively at all stages of hardware maturity. Human test subjects are required to conduct some of these tests, and the risks associated with the use of development hardware must be addressed. Federal guidelines for protection of human subjects require careful consideration of risks and potential benefits by an Institutional Review Board (IRB) before and during testing. This paper reviews the ethical principles guiding this consideration, details the problems and uncertainties inherent in current hardware testing, and presents an incremental approach to risk assessment for ECLSS testing.
Crump, William J.↗
High Data Rate Architecture (HiDRA)
One of the greatest challenges in developing new space technology is in navigating the transition from ground based laboratory demonstration at Technology Readiness Level 6 (TRL-6) to conducting a prototype demonstration in space (TRL-7). This challenge is com- pounded by the relatively low availability of new spacecraft missions when compared with aeronautical craft to bridge this gap, leading to the general adoption of a low-risk stance by mission management to accept new, unproven technologies into the system. Also in consideration of risk, the limited selection and availability of proven space-grade components imparts a severe limitation on achieving high performance systems by current terrestrial technology standards. Finally from a space communications point of view the long duration characteristic of most missions imparts a major constraint on the entire space and ground network architecture, since any new technologies introduced into the system would have to be compliant with the duration of the currently deployed operational technologies, and in some cases may be limited by surrounding legacy capabilities. Beyond ensuring that the new technology is verified to function correctly and validated to meet the needs of the end users the formidable challenge then grows to additionally include: carefully timing the maturity path of the new technology to coincide with a feasible and accepting future mission so it flies before its relevancy has passed, utilizing a limited catalog of available components to their maximum potential to create meaningful and unprecedented new capabilities, designing and ensuring interoperability with aging space and ground infrastructures while simultaneously providing a growth path to the future. The International Space Station (ISS) is approaching 20 years of age. To keep the ISS relevant, technology upgrades are continuously taking place. Regarding communications, the state-of-the-art communication system upgrades underway include high-rate laser terminals. These must interface with the existing, aging data infrastructure. The High Data Rate Architecture (HiDRA) project is designed to provide networked store, carry, and forward capability to optimize data flow through both the existing radio frequency (RF) and new laser communications terminal. The networking capability is realized through the Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) protocol, and is used for scheduling data movement as well as optimizing the performance of existing RF channels. HiDRA is realized as a distributed FPGA memory and interface controller that is itself controlled by a local computer running DTN software. Thus HiDRA is applicable to other arenas seeking to employ next-generation communications technologies, e.g. deep space. In this paper, we describe HiDRA and its far-reaching research implications.
DTN↗
Risk Estimation of Threatening Asteroids
When faced with the question of designing an asteroid deflection mission or with the decision of launching it, significant uncertainties are present in the asteroid’s physical properties, and its orbit solution. The success of the deflection mission relies heavily on these aspects. For example, a heavier than expected asteroid will reduce the imparted deflection DV. So will a larger porosity value by reducing the beta factor [1]. Here, we present a new capability that estimates asteroid impact risk under consideration of these uncertainties. The new method samples the uncertainty space along multiple dimensions, performs a predetermined deflection, propagates the deflected samples to the Earth, models the impact damage, and estimates the overall risk outcome. The work builds on the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment tool [2] by including orbital uncertainty and deflection capabilities. We demonstrate this risk estimation approach for threatening asteroids using the example of the fictitious impactor 2019 PDC. Such analysis provides a quantitative basis for the work of decision makers and disaster managers. It may further find application in areas such as mitigation mission planning where projected post-mitigation risk can be compared to premitigation levels as a means of cost-benefit analysis formitigation options.
Rumpf, Clemens↗
Evaluation of the Los Alamos Nuclear Material Packaging Risk Ranking Method
Repackaging nuclear material into robust containers to protect workers and the public has been ongoing at LANL and around the DOE complex for nearly two decades. The number of containers at LANL is around 5,000; limited resources for repackaging material has led to extended repackaging campaigns and the need to prioritize repackaging. Various methodologies have been used to prioritize the repackaging efforts and to demonstrate progress in risk reduction over time (e.g., Boerigter, 1997). The 2000-1 DNFSB recommendation recognized the limited DOE resources for repackaging, and acknowledged the need to “prioritize and schedule tasks to be undertaken with available funds according to consideration of risks.” Later, in DNFSB recommendation 2005-1, in addition to recommending that DOE develop a packaging standard, the Board recommended that “Characterization information should also be used to develop a surveillance program prioritized according to expected material and container risk (including, for example, material type, material form, and the age and type of container).” In response to requests and recommendations from the DOE and DNSFB to prioritize according to worker risk, a risk ranking method based on the potential consequence of dropping a container from 3 meters was developed in 2007 (Smith, 2007) and updated in 2014 (Hoffman, 2014). Various LANL implementation plans for repackaging were developed over the years using this methodology (Stone, 2014). Currently, this method is utilized in conjunction with an algorithm to mitigate programmatic risk to prioritize container repackaging and material processing (Prochnow, 2015). The purpose of this study is to document how the current risk ranking method works, how it is used and potential limitations.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Managing Power Systems-Induced Wildfire Risks Using Optimal Scheduled Shutoffs
The increasing demands for electricity and the increase in extreme weather conditions are putting unprecedented pressure on our electric grids. Often, this pressure leads to electrical component failures, which might ignite wildfires. This work develops a novel model to balance the reliability of power network operations and the risk of wildfire ignition by opti- mizing the operational schedule of power transmission networks considering time-varying risk measures that include exogenous and operational factors. Energy storage systems are considered to deliver power during peak wildfire hours and enable temporal load shifting. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program that maximizes a weighted sum of the served power demand and the reduction in grid-induced wildfire risk. The results demonstrate the ability of the model to significantly reduce wildfire risk without considerable load shedding.
power systems operations↗
Assessing Crew Medical Officer Preparedness for International Space Station Missions
INTRODUCTION Astronaut crew medical officers (CMO) undergo additional, specialized training to provide medical support onboard the International Space Station (ISS). CMO training focuses on utilizing resources on-station and optimizing communication with ground-based expertise to manage both common minor conditions as well as emergency/trauma situations. As NASA moves towards future Artemis and exploration class missions, we sought CMO perspectives on past, present, and future CMO training and medical resourcing to help inform mission planners regarding medical risk mitigation considerations. We present an interview-based qualitative assessment of CMO preparedness for the International Space Station with the aim to help iterate future training flows for Low Earth Orbit, Artemis, and exploration-class missions. METHODS A semi-structured interview tool was developed to assess CMO experience and their recommendations for future mission training considerations. Participants were recruited from former or current US astronauts who were designated as CMO and subsequently flew to the International Space Station. 10 former CMOs took part in the study. Interview transcripts were deidentified and evaluated for qualitative thematic analysis by two independent coders with NVivo Software suite (Lumivero, Denver, CO), and emergent themes were compiled. RESULTS Former CMO crew expressed appropriate preparedness for current ISS medical capabilities and requirements. They identified the role of the CMO as serving as a healthcare extender to ground-based flight surgeons for ISS and other LEO missions. Individuals with prior medical experience were preferred though not felt to be necessary for LEO missions. For exploration class missions with limitations in ground communication, a physician-as-CMO and more rigorous training curricula for both the CMO and astronaut crew were desired. DISCUSSION Former NASA astronaut crew were interviewed to retrospectively assess their preparedness as ISS crew medical officers and hypothesize future medical knowledge, skill, and ability needs. Along with medical operations subject matter expert opinion and advanced probabilistic risk assessment modeling, past CMO experience can help inform future CMO training considerations and responsibilities for future Artemis and exploration class missions.
M A Labarbera↗
Failure environment analysis tool applications
Understanding risks and avoiding failure are daily concerns for the women and men of NASA. Although NASA's mission propels us to push the limits of technology, and though the risks are considerable, the NASA community has instilled within, the determination to preserve the integrity of the systems upon which our mission and, our employees lives and well-being depend. One of the ways this is being done is by expanding and improving the tools used to perform risk assessment. The Failure Environment Analysis Tool (FEAT) was developed to help engineers and analysts more thoroughly and reliably conduct risk assessment and failure analysis. FEAT accomplishes this by providing answers to questions regarding what might have caused a particular failure; or, conversely, what effect the occurrence of a failure might have on an entire system. Additionally, FEAT can determine what common causes could have resulted in other combinations of failures. FEAT will even help determine the vulnerability of a system to failures, in light of reduced capability. FEAT also is useful in training personnel who must develop an understanding of particular systems. FEAT facilitates training on system behavior, by providing an automated environment in which to conduct 'what-if' evaluation. These types of analyses make FEAT a valuable tool for engineers and operations personnel in the design, analysis, and operation of NASA space systems.
Pack, Ginger L.↗
Failure environment analysis tool applications
Understanding risks and avoiding failure are daily concerns for the women and men of NASA. Although NASA's mission propels us to push the limits of technology, and though the risks are considerable, the NASA community has instilled within it, the determination to preserve the integrity of the systems upon which our mission and, our employees lives and well-being depend. One of the ways this is being done is by expanding and improving the tools used to perform risk assessment. The Failure Environment Analysis Tool (FEAT) was developed to help engineers and analysts more thoroughly and reliably conduct risk assessment and failure analysis. FEAT accomplishes this by providing answers to questions regarding what might have caused a particular failure; or, conversely, what effect the occurrence of a failure might have on an entire system. Additionally, FEAT can determine what common causes could have resulted in other combinations of failures. FEAT will even help determine the vulnerability of a system to failures, in light of reduced capability. FEAT also is useful in training personnel who must develop an understanding of particular systems. FEAT facilitates training on system behavior, by providing an automated environment in which to conduct 'what-if' evaluation. These types of analyses make FEAT a valuable tool for engineers and operations personnel in the design, analysis, and operation of NASA space systems.
Pack, Ginger L.↗