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DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological preference for a negative neutrino mass

The most precise determination of the sum of neutrino masses from cosmological data, derived from analysis of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and baryon acoustic acoustic oscillations (BAO) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), favors a value below the minimum inferred from neutrino flavor oscillation experiments. We explore which data is most responsible of this puzzling aspect of the current constraints on neutrino mass and whether it is related to other anomalies in cosmology. We demonstrate conclusively that the preference for negative neutrino masses is a consequence of larger than expected lensing of the CMB in both the two- and four-point lensing statistics. Furthermore, we show that this preference is robust to changes in likelihoods of the BAO and CMB optical depth analyses given the available data. We then show that this excess clustering is not easily explained by changes to the expansion history and is likely distinct from the preference for for dynamical dark energy in DESI BAO data. Finally, we discuss how future data may impact these results, including an analysis of Planck CMB with mock DESI 5-year data. Here, we conclude that the negative neutrino mass preference is likely to persist even as more cosmological data is collected in the near future.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pandora-based muon neutrino disappearance search in the SBN program with 1muonNp quasi-elastic like channel

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program at Fermilab aims to perform a definitive search for light sterile neutrinos using multiple liquid argon time projection chamber detectors. We present the status of an analysis of muon neutrino charged-current interactions in two SBN detectors (SBND and ICARUS), selecting fully contained events with one muon and at least one proton in the final state, inspired by the recent ICARUS standalone results. This topology-driven selection reduces dependence on neutrino interaction cross-section modeling while preserving high statistics and good neutrino energy resolution, enabled by robust reconstruction and particle identification. Fully contained events enable precise kinematic reconstruction and support relative measurements between detectors, directly addressing the core goals of the SBN program. A detailed evaluation of systematic uncertainties is currently underway, with the objective of reducing the dominant systematics to the percent level. The current status of this analysis, with a particular focus on the event selection performance, will be presented in this poster.

Artero Pons, Maria [Padua U.; INFN, Padua]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Four Years of Type Ia Supernovae Observed by TESS: Early-time Light-curve Shapes and Constraints on Companion Interaction Models

Abstract We present 307 type Ia supernova (SN) light curves from the first 4 yr of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite mission. We use this sample to characterize the shapes of the early-time light curves, measure the rise times from first light to peak, and search for companion star interactions. Using simulations, we show that light curves must have noise <10% of the peak flux to avoid biases in the early-time light-curve shape, restricting our quantitative analysis to 74 light curves. We find that the mean power-law index t β 1 of the early-time light curves isβ 1 = 1.93 ± 0.57, and the mean rise time to peak is 15.7 ± 3.5 days. The underlying population distribution forβ 1 may instead consist of a Gaussian component with mean 2.29, width 0.34, and a long tail extending to values less than 1.0. We find that the data can rarely distinguish between models with and without companion interaction models. Nevertheless, we find three high-quality light curves that tentatively prefer the addition of a companion interaction model, but the statistical evidence for the companion interactions is not robust. We also find two SNe that disfavor the addition of a companion interaction model to a curved power-law model. Taking the 74 SNe together, we calculate 3σupper limits on the presence of companion signatures to control for orientation effects that can hide companions in individual light curves. Our results rule out common progenitor systems with companions having Roche lobe radii >31R ⊙ (separations >5.7 × 10 12 cm, 99.9% confidence level) and disfavor companions having Roche lobe radii >10R ⊙ (separations >1.9 × 10 12 cm, 95% confidence level). Lastly, we discuss the implications of our results for the intrinsic fraction of single degenerate progenitor systems.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Synthesis of ARM User Facility Surface Rainfall Datasets to Construct a Best Estimate Value Added Product (PrecipBE)

Surface precipitation measurements are essential for Earth system model (ESM) evaluation and understanding cloud processes. An ever-growing need for robust, temporally evolving, and easy-to-use statistical datasets provides motivation for a baseline ground-based precipitation properties data product. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility operates an extensive suite of precipitation instruments with various sensitivities and operating mechanisms, which render the decision of which instrument to use based on one or more fixed thresholds challenging and prone to errors and bias. Using a long-term instrument inter-comparison from a unique per-precipitation event perspective, rather than instantaneous sample comparison, we demonstrate that ARM rainfall-measuring instruments are generally consistent with each other at the statistical level. Inter-instrument deviations at the single event level can be large, especially for specific rainfall event properties such as maximum precipitation rates. A machine-learning (ML) analysis using a random forest regressor indicates that in some cases, depending on instrument, local site climatology, and/or specific deployment configuration, certain atmospheric state variables influence the measured quantities in an unpredictable manner. Thus, a-priori weighting of different instruments does not necessarily lead to more accurate and less biased synthesis of instrument data. These results motivate the design of the ARM precipitation best-estimate (PrecipBE) value-added product, which incorporates all valid precipitation data while considering data quality and other instrument limitations. PrecipBE consists of time series and tabular statistics datasets in an easy-to-use and insightful per-precipitation event format. It provides a large set of precipitation event properties supplemented with ancillary data from ARM datasets that correspond to the detected precipitation events. We describe the PrecipBE algorithm and demonstrate its use via the examination of a single-day output as well as a long-term trend analysis of precipitation events at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, covering more than 30 years of data. The trend analysis tentatively suggests a long-term temporal tendency for mainly shorter and less intense precipitation events at the SGP site, but a long-term increase in annual rainfall by more than 36 mm (5 %) per decade. This rainfall trend is catalyzed primarily by more extreme event properties of relatively rare, intense precipitation events, with event total and 1 min maximum precipitation rate at a 1 year timeframe increasing up to 5 mm and 9 mm h −1 (several percent) per decade, respectively. While the currently available PrecipBE datasets (at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/, last access: 8 December 2025) cover rainfall from multiple ARM deployments up to March 2025, PrecipBE is planned to be expanded to include solid-phase precipitation and will soon become an operational product with a several-day lag from real-time. We invite the ARM user community to leverage this new product and welcome user feedback to further enhance the dataset.

Silber, Israel [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Galaxy-galaxy lensing

We present galaxy--galaxy lensing (GGL) measurements from the full six years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y6), covering $4031\,\mathrm{deg}^2$ and used in the DES Y6 $3\times2$pt cosmological analysis. We use the MagLim++ lens sample, containing $\sim 9$ million galaxies divided into six redshift bins, and the Metadetection source catalog, including $\sim 140$ million galaxies divided into four redshift bins. The mean tangential shear signal achieves a total signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of $173$, corresponding to a $17\%$ improvement over DES Y3. After applying the scale cuts used in the cosmological analysis, with $R_{\min}=6\,\mathrm{Mpc}/h$ ($4\,\mathrm{Mpc}/h$) for the linear (nonlinear) galaxy-bias model, the S/N is reduced to $75$ (90). A comprehensive suite of validation tests demonstrates that the measurement is robust against observational and astrophysical systematics at the statistical precision required for the DES Y6 analysis. Although not used in the main cosmological analysis, we extract high--signal-to-noise geometric shear-ratio measurements from the galaxy--galaxy lensing signal on small angular scales. These measurements provide an internal consistency check on the photometric redshift distributions and shear calibration used in the $3\times2$pt analysis.

Giannini, G. [Barcelona, IEEC; Chicago U., KICP; B↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data and code for Daily and Multi-Day Extreme Rainfall Analysis Under Future Climates Using Stochastic Storm Transposition and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Over CONUS

This data package provides inputs, codes, and outputs for a comprehensive analysis of projected changes in extreme precipitation across 10 regions of the continental United States, using 34 downscaled Earth System Models (ESMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset. These models are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a coordinated climate modeling framework widely used to assess climate change impacts. The analysis applies a stochastic storm transposition method to quantify changes in extreme rainfall under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios—SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions)—compared to historical conditions (1995–2014 vs. 2081–2100). The dataset includes rainfall depth estimates for extreme events with return periods from 2 to 500 years across multiple storm durations (1, 3, and 5 days) for each of the 10 U.S. regions. Weighted ensemble statistics are derived from individual ESM performance against historical precipitation patterns, enabling robust uncertainty quantification through both sign-based and permutation-test-based model agreement assessments. Key analyses address: (1) relative changes in extreme precipitation for each climate scenario, (2) differences between SSP scenarios (SSP5-8.5 vs. SSP2-4.5), (3) contrasts between rare and frequent events, and (4) variations between multi-day and daily storm durations. The workflow produces ensemble statistics—median, 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles—along with model agreement metrics that identify regions and event types with robust climate change signals. The dataset includes: processed rainfall depth outputs (netCDF format) from the RainyDay Python package, ESM weights from historical performance evaluation using DayMet observations, ensemble statistics across all storm dimensions, and figures summarizing key findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Vacuum Neutral Transport Model in UEDGE for Tokamak Far Scrape‐Off Layer

A model for neutral transport in the far scrape-off layer (SOL) vacuum region (vacuum neutral model) has been developed and implemented in UEDGE. Free-streaming neutral trajectories between the outermost UEDGE boundary and the vessel wall are preprocessed using DEGAS2 to construct a tele-transport matrix that captures non-local neutral relocation through the vacuum. Here, this matrix is then used in UEDGE as a non-local boundary condition for the neutral equations, preserving the robustness and convergence of the implicit solver without introducing statistical noise. Simulations of a DIII-D lower single-null configuration show that the vacuum neutral model relocates neutrals from the divertor to the upstream region, increasing the outer midplane separatrix density required for detachment onset by about 30%. However, the characteristic target temperature at detachment (T e, osp ~ 3 - 4eV) and the radiation front behavior remain unchanged.

DEGAS2↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving statistical precision in Monte Carlo samples with negative weights via reweighting and uncertainty quantification

High statistical precision is critical for Monte Carlo (MC) samples in high energy physics and is degraded by negatively weighted events. This paper investigates a procedure to learn the relationship between the negative and positive weight distributions of any sample, allowing the reduction of statistical uncertainty by reweighting kinematically equivalent events with the same sign. A robust uncertainty quantification method is required for the practical application of such method. Two methods for the estimation of the reweighting uncertainty are developed: one at the event and another one at the final observable level. The latter method is strongly favored. The gains in statistical precision are then quantified. The method is demonstrated on Sherpa vector boson plus jets samples when using all generated events and when restricted to the signal region of a mock analysis. It is demonstrated to significantly reduce stochastic behavior in sparse MC samples while decreasing the overall uncertainty with a sufficiently well-known reweighting function.

Monte Carlo methods↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cluster expansion by transfer learning for phase stability predictions

Recent progress towards universal machine-learned interatomic potentials holds considerable promise for materials discovery. Yet the accuracy of these potentials for predicting phase stability may still be limited. In contrast, cluster expansions provide accurate phase stability predictions but are computationally demanding to parameterize from first principles, especially for structures of low dimension or with a large number of components, such as interfaces or multimetal catalysts. We overcome this trade-off via transfer learning. Using Bayesian inference, we incorporate prior statistical knowledge from machine-learned and physics-based potentials, enabling us to sample the most informative configurations and to efficiently fit first-principles cluster expansions. Furthermore, this algorithm is tested on Pt:Ni, showing robust convergence of the mixing energies as a function of sample size with reduced statistical fluctuations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detecting Masquerade Attacks in Controller Area Networks Using Graph Machine Learning

Modern vehicles rely on a myriad of electronic control units (ECUs) interconnected via controller area networks (CANs) for critical operations. Despite their ubiquitous use and reliability, CANs are susceptible to sophisticated cyberattacks, particularly masquerade attacks, which inject false data that mimic legitimate messages at the expected frequency. These attacks pose severe risks such as unintended acceleration, brake deactivation, and rogue steering. Traditional intrusion detection systems (IDS) often struggle to detect these subtle intrusions due to their seamless integration into normal traffic. This paper introduces a novel framework for detecting masquerade attacks in the CAN bus using graph machine learning (ML). We hypothesize that the integration of shallow graph embeddings with time series features derived from CAN frames enhances the detection of masquerade attacks. We show that by representing CAN bus frames as message sequence graphs (MSGs) and enriching each node with contextual statistical attributes from time series, we can enhance detection capabilities across various attack patterns compared to using graph-based features only. Our method ensures a comprehensive and dynamic analysis of CAN frame interactions, improving robustness and efficiency. Extensive experiments on the ROAD dataset validate the effectiveness of our approach, demonstrating statistically significant improvements in the detection rates of masquerade attacks compared to a baseline that uses graph-based features only as confirmed by Mann-Whitney U and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests (p < 0.05) .

Marfo, William [Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Bayesian Framework for Spectral Reprojection

Abstract Fourier partial sum approximations yield exponential accuracy for smooth and periodic functions, but produce the infamous Gibbs phenomenon for non-periodic ones. Spectral reprojection resolves the Gibbs phenomenon by projecting the Fourier partial sum onto a Gibbs complementary basis, often prescribed as the Gegenbauer polynomials. Noise in the Fourier data and the Runge phenomenon both degrade the quality of the Gegenbauer reconstruction solution, however. Motivated by its theoretical convergence properties, this paper proposes a new Bayesian framework for spectral reprojection, which allows a greater understanding of the impact of noise on the reprojection method from a statistical point of view. We are also able to improve the robustness with respect to the Gegenbauer polynomials parameters. Finally, the framework provides a mechanism to quantify the uncertainty of the solution estimate.

Li, Tongtong (ORCID:0000000276644764)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Feature-agnostic metabolomics for determining effective subcytotoxic doses of common pesticides in human cells

Although classical molecular biology assays can provide a measure of cellular response to chemical challenges, they rely on a single biological phenomenon to infer a broader measure of cellular metabolic response. These methods do not always afford the necessary sensitivity to answer questions of subcytotoxic effects, nor do they work for all cell types. Likewise, boutique assays such as cardiomyocyte beat rate may indirectly measure cellular metabolic response, but they too, are limited to measuring a specific biological phenomenon and are often limited to a single cell type. For these reasons, toxicological researchers need new approaches to determine metabolic changes across various doses in differing cell types, especially within the low-dose regime. Here, the data collected herein demonstrate that LC-MS/MS-based untargeted metabolomics with a feature-agnostic view of the data, combined with a suite of statistical methods including an adapted environmental threshold analysis, provides a versatile, robust, and holistic approach to directly monitoring the overall cellular metabolomic response to pesticides. When employing this method in investigating two different cell types, human cardiomyocytes and neurons, this approach revealed separate subcytotoxic metabolomic responses at doses of 0.1 and 1 µM of chlorpyrifos and carbaryl. These findings suggest that this agnostic approach to untargeted metabolomics can provide a new tool for determining effective dose by metabolomics of chemical challenges, such as pesticides, in a direct measurement of metabolomic response that is not cell type-specific or observable using traditional assays.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electrolyte-driven interphase stabilization in high-voltage sodium-ion full cells

Sodium-ion batteries with a high-voltage O3-type layered oxide cathode paired with a hard carbon anode can offer high energy density; however, significant interfacial instabilities driven by electrode/electrolyte reactions limit a broader industrial adoption. Localized high concentration electrolytes (LHCEs) are a rational choice as they promote salt decomposition over solvent, forming stable, inorganic-rich electrode-electrolyte interphases (EEIs). We present here a comparison of high-voltage (4.2 V) hard carbon | NaNi 1/3 Fe 1/3 Mn 1/3 O 2 pouch cells in LHCEs and in a standard carbonate-based electrolyte by (i) examining the influence of diluent choice on the electrochemical performance of LHCEs and (ii) investigating how the electrolyte chemistry affects the composition and structure of EEIs formed. Importantly, LHCEs demonstrate superior electrochemical performance, achieving 37% higher capacity after 200 cycles (119 vs. 87 mA h g -1 ) compared to the carbonate-based electrolyte. The enhanced stabilization provided by LHCEs at the interface with high-voltage sodium layered oxide cathode is revealed by gas evolution measurements obtained through online electrochemical mass spectrometry (OEMS). Time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry paired with focused ion beam and advanced statistical analyses reveal that the superior performance of LHCE stems from a robust, thin cathode electrolyte interphase formed on the sodium layered oxide cathode and a homogeneous solid electrolyte interphase formation on the hard carbon anode. Furthermore, this study highlights the critical importance of electrolyte design in interphase stabilization, which plays a key role in advancing sodium-ion batteries toward commercial viability.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probing cosmic velocities with the pairwise kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich signal in DESI Bright Galaxy Sample DR1 and ACT DR6

We present a measurement of the pairwise kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (kSZ) signal using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Bright Galaxy Sample (BGS) Data Release 1 (DR1) galaxy sample overlapping with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) CMB temperature map. Our analysis makes use of 1.6 million galaxies with stellar masses log⁡ 𝑀 ⋆ /𝑀 ⊙ >10, and we explore measurements across a range of aperture sizes (2.1′ <𝜃 ap <3.5′) and stellar mass selections. This statistic directly probes the velocity field of the large-scale structure, a unique observable of cosmic dynamics and modified gravity. In particular, at low redshifts, this quantity is especially interesting, as deviations from General Relativity are expected to be largest. Notably, our result represents the highest-significance low-redshift (𝑧 ∼ 0.3) detection of the kSZ pairwise effect yet. In our most optimal configuration (𝜃 ap =3.3′, log⁡ 𝑀 ⋆ >11), we achieve a 5⁢𝜎 detection. Assuming that an estimate of the optical depth and galaxy bias of the sample exists via e.g., external observables, this measurement constrains the fundamental cosmological combination 𝐻 0 ⁡𝑓⁡𝜎$^2_8$. A key challenge is the degeneracy with the galaxy optical depth. We address this by combining CMB lensing, which allows us to infer the halo mass and galaxy population properties, with hydrodynamical simulation estimates of the mean optical depth, $\bar{𝜏}$ . We stress that this is a proof-of-concept analysis; with BGS DR2 data we expect to improve the statistical precision by roughly a factor of two, paving the way toward robust tests of modified gravity with kSZ-informed velocity-field measurements at low redshift.

Hadzhiyska, Boryana [Institute of Astronomy; Kavli↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spectral anomalies and broken symmetries in maximally chaotic quantum maps

Spectral statistics such as the level spacing statistics and spectral form factor (SFF) are widely expected to accurately identify “ergodicity,” including the presence of underlying macroscopic symmetries, in generic quantum systems ranging from quantized chaotic maps to interacting many-body systems. By studying various quantizations of maximally chaotic maps that break a discrete classical symmetry upon quantization, we demonstrate that this approach can be misleading and fail to detect macroscopic symmetries. Notably, the same classical map can exhibit signatures of different random matrix symmetry classes in short-range spectral statistics depending on the quantization. While the long-range spectral statistics encoded in the early time ramp of the SFF are more robust and correctly identify macroscopic symmetries in several common quantizations, we also demonstrate analytically and numerically that the presence of Berry-like phases in the quantization leads to spectral anomalies, which break this correspondence. Finally, we provide numerical evidence that long-range spectral rigidity remains directly correlated with ergodicity in the quantum dynamical sense of visiting a complete orthonormal basis.

Shou, Laura [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (↗

DOE OSTI2026

Alleviating prior dependencies for DESI DR1 clustering fits through reparameterization

Bayesian analyses of the full-shape clustering of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) exhibit prior-volume projection effects, whereby weakly constrained nuisance parameters of the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structure (EFTofLSS) shift marginalized cosmological posteriors away from the posterior maximum. We reanalyze DESI DR1 power spectrum multipoles using two complementary mitigation strategies: (i) nonlinear orthogonalization to decorrelate nuisance and cosmological parameter priors, and (ii) a fully reparameterization-invariant Jeffreys prior over all EFTofLSS coefficients, evaluated on-the-fly via closed-form Jacobians. Including data from DESI, Big-Bang Nuclesynthesis and a constraint on $n_{\mathrm{s}}$, baseline priors lead to multi-$σ$ projection in the Hubble parameter $H_{0}$ and dark energy equation of state parameters $w_{0}$ and $w_{a}$; the Jeffreys prior successfully recenters these posteriors to enclose the maximum a posteriori estimate within the 68% credible regions, demonstrating clear mitigation of projection effects for these late-time expansion parameters. A hybrid Jeffreys+baseline-Gaussian configuration controls residual over-broad tails in the physical cold dark matter density $ω_{\mathrm{c}}$ while preserving the volume correction, and is our favoured approach. We compare the credible intervals derived using our methodology to those obtained using Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors and to confidence intervals derived using frequentist profile likelihood analyses, finding agreement in both central values and degeneracy directions in the $w_{0}$--$w_{a}$ plane. This demonstrates that, once projection effects are properly controlled, we can make robust inferences about the late-time cosmological expansion independent of the statistical framework adopted.

Bonici, M. [Waterloo U.; Perimeter Inst. Theor. Ph↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for the Optimization of Water Treatment Processes Under Uncertainty Assessed through Process Operability

Conference presentation conveying work conducted on developing a framework for the optimization of water treatment processes after applying robust optimization and process operability tools. The objective of this framework is to optimize treatment processes under the uncertainty of source water conditions. This work contributes to robust optimization and process operability methodologies, allowing for the extension of probability from statistical models to operability calculations.

Barber, Hunter↗