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NASA NTRS2021

Weathering and Sedimentation in Basaltic Terrains On Earth; Implications For the Paleoclimate of Gale Crater, Mars

In the Early Hesperian period, rivers transported detritus from igneous source terrains to a downstream lake within Gale crater, Mars, creating a stratified stack of fluviolacustrine rocks that is currently exposed along the slopes of Mount Sharp[e.g., 1-2]. Debate still exists regarding the paleo climate that supported overland flow of liquid water at Gale crater, in large part because little is known about how chemical and mineralogical paleoclimate indicators from mafic-rock dominated source-to-sink systems are translated into the rock record. Here, we present the findings from Thorpe et al., (2021), where we compiled data from basaltic terrains with varying climates on Earth in order to provide a reference frame for the conditions that may have prevailed during the formation of the sedimentary strata in Gale crater, particularly focusing on the Sheepbed and Pahrump Hills members.

M T Thorpe↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evolving physical and mechanical rock properties during exposure at Earth's surface

Rocks at Earth's surface experience progressive damage due to exposure to environmental conditions. Although environmental damage to rocks is recognized as being time-dependent, our quantitative understanding of its effects on physical and mechanical properties remains limited by field and laboratory studies constrained to short timescales. In this study, we aim to rigorously quantify how these properties evolve under longer natural environmental exposure spanning from the Holocene to the late Pleistocene. We conducted a ‘time series’ analysis of key physical and mechanical rock properties using multiple interior samples from 10 cogenetic granitoid boulders exposed for different amounts of time at two sites in Eastern California, USA. We find that over the late Pleistocene (~30 ka), rocks exhibit porosity increases of 40 ± 4 % and seismic velocity decreases of 7 ± 1 % at both sites. Similarly, over the same time period, rock tensile and compressive strengths declined by an average of 11 ± 4 %, and rock permeability increased on average by 104 ± 50 %. Microscopic analysis of thin sections of the same rocks indicates that microfracture density and intensity also progressively increased over the same timescales. These results suggest that time-dependent fracture propagation due to environmental exposure is likely a central contributor to the observed changes in rock properties. This study provides quantitative documentation that pronounced changes in the physical and mechanical properties of rock progressively occur within thousands of years of exposure.

Critical zone↗

NASA NTRS2015

Distinct Igneous APXS Rock Compositions on Mars from Pathfinder, MER and MSL

The alpha particle x-ray spectrometer (APXS) on all four Mars Rovers returned geochemical data from about 1000 rocks and soils along the combined traverses of over 50 kilometers. Here we discuss rocks likely of igneous origin, which might represent source materials for the soils and sediments identified along the traverses. Adirondack-type basalts, abundant in the plains of Gusev Crater, are primitive, olivine bearing basalts. They resemble in composition the basaltic soils encountered at all landing sites, except the ubiquitous elevated S, Cl and Zn in soils. They have been postulated to represent closely the average Martian crust composition. The recently identified new Martian meteorite Black Beauty has similar overall geochemical composition, very distinct from the earlier established SNC meteorites. The rim of the Noachian crater Endeavour, predating the sulfate-bearing Burns formation at Meridiani Planum, also resembles closely the composition of Adirondack basalts. At Gale Crater, the MSL Curiosity rover identified a felsic rock type exemplified by the mugearitic float rock JakeM, which is widespread along the traverse at Gale. While a surprise at that time, possibly related more evolved, alkaline rocks had been previously identified on Mars. Spirit encountered the Wishstone rocks in the Columbia Hills with approx. 6% Na2O+K2O, 15 % Al2O3 and low 12% FeO. Pathfinder rocks with elevated K and Na and >50% SiO2 were postulated to be andesitic. Recently Opportunity encountered the rock JeanBaptisteCharbonneau with >15% Al2O3, >50% SiO2 and approx. 10% FeO. A common characteristic all these rocks is the very low abundance of Cr, Ni and Zn, and an Fe/Mn ratio of about 50, indicating an unaltered Fe mineralogy. Beside these likely igneous rock types, which occurred always in several rocks, a few unique rocks were encountered, e.g. Bounce Rock, a pyroxene-bearing ejecta rock fragment resembling the Shergottite EETA 79001B meteorite. The APXS data can be used to relate the findings of all 4 landing sites, constrain the water to rock ratio of sediments or imply source rock provenance. Beyond that the capability to quantify important volatile elements like P, S, Cl, and Br have provided new insights into the chemistry and the environment present during the formation of the sediments.

Gellert, Ralf↗

NASA NTRS2001

Dry Mars: Parched Rocks and Fallen Dust

While "following the water" to find life on Mars, it is easy to overlook evidence that Mars is harshly dry, and to neglect ideas that do not invoke water. Direct evidence for a dry Mars comes from the ALH 84001 meteorite, which has seen little or no liquid water during its last 3.9 billion years on Mars. Its aridity is difficult to reconcile with a Mars of abundant near-surface surface water or with episodes of warm wet climate. Alternative scenarios are also possible, even likely, for the martian gullies and debris flows that have been cited as evidence of liquid water. It is reasonable that the gullies flows are the remnants of massive dust avalanches, comparable to large climax snow avalanches seen on Earth. Mars' surface is now desiccated, and at least part of it has been equally desiccated for the past 3.9 billion years. With this background, and the wealth of atmospheric, imaging, and chemical data available from Mars, one must be very cautious in evaluating claims for liquid water recently at or near Mars' surface. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Treiman, Allan H.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Evaluation of LANDSAT multispectral scanner images for mapping altered rocks in the east Tintic Mountains, Utah

The author has identified the following significant results. Positive findings of earlier evaluations of the color-ratio compositing technique for mapping limonitic altered rocks in south-central Nevada are confirmed, but important limitations in the approach used are pointed out. These limitations arise from environmental, geologic, and image processing factors. The greater vegetation density in the East Tintic Mountains required several modifications in procedures to improve the overall mapping accuracy of the CRC approach. Large format ratio images provide better internal registration of the diazo films and avoids the problems associated with magnifications required in the original procedure. Use of the Linoscan 204 color recognition scanner permits accurate consistent extraction of the green pixels representing limonitic bedrock maps that can be used for mapping at large scales as well as for small scale reconnaissance.

Rowan, L. C.↗

NASA NTRS2022

An olivine cumulate outcrop on the floor of Jezero crater, Mars

The geological units on the floor of Jezero crater, Mars, are part of a wider regional stratigraphy of olivine-rich rocks, which extends well beyond the crater. We investigate the petrology of olivine and carbonate-bearing rocks of the Séítah formation in the floor of Jezero. Using multispectral images and x-ray fluorescence data, acquired by the Perseverance rover, we performed a petrographic analysis of the Bastide and Brac outcrops within this unit. We find that these outcrops are composed of igneous rock, moderately altered by aqueous fluid. The igneous rocks are mainly made of coarse-grained olivine, similar to some Martian meteorites. We interpret them as an olivine cumulate, formed by settling and enrichment of olivine through multi-stage cooling of a thick magma body.

Mars↗

NASA NTRS2011

Space Weathering of Rocks

Space weathering discussions have generally centered around soils but exposed rocks will also incur the effects of weathering. On the Moon, rocks make up only a very small percentage of the exposed surface and areas where rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions we find in remote sensing data. However, our studies of weathered Ap 17 rocks 76015 and 76237 show that significant amounts of weathering products can build up on rock surfaces. Because rocks have much longer surface lifetimes than an individual soil grain, and thus record a longer history of exposure, we can study these products to gain a deeper perspective on the weathering process and better assess the relative impo!1ance of various weathering components on the Moon. In contrast to the lunar case, on small asteroids, like Itokowa, rocks make up a large fraction of the exposed surface. Results from the Hayabusa spacecraft at Itokowa suggest that while the low gravity does not allow for the development of a mature regolith, weathering patinas can and do develop on rock surfaces, in fact, the rocky surfaces were seen to be darker and appear spectrally more weathered than regions with finer materials. To explore how weathering of asteroidal rocks may differ from lunar, a set of ordinary chondrite meteorites (H, L, and LL) which have been subjected to artificial space weathering by nanopulse laser were examined by TEM. NpFe(sup 0) bearing glasses were ubiquitous in both the naturally-weathered lunar and the artificially-weathered meteorite samples.

Noble, Sarah↗

DOE OSTI2025

Kinetically Dormant Ni‐Rich Layered Cathode During High‐Voltage Operation

Abstract The degradation of Ni‐rich cathodes during long‐term operation at high voltage has garnered significant attention from both academia and industry. Despite many post‐mortem qualitative structural analyses, precise quantification of their individual and coupling contributions to the overall capacity degradation remains challenging. Here, by leveraging multiscale synchrotron X‐ray probes, electron microscopy, and post‐galvanostatic intermittent titration technique, the thermodynamically irreversible and kinetically reversible capacity loss is successfully deconvoluted in a polycrystalline LiNi 0.83 Mn 0.1 Co 0.07 O 2 cathode during long‐term charge/discharge cycling in full cell configuration. Contradicting the dramatic capacity loss, the layered structure remains highly alive even after 1000 cycles at 4.6 V while undergoing a three‐order of magnitude reduction in the mass transfer kinetics, leading to almost fully recoverable capacity under kinetic‐free conditions. Such kinetic dormant behavior after cycling is not simply ascribed to poor chemical diffusion by reconstructed cathode surface but highly synchronizes with the lattice strain evolution stemming from the structural heterogeneity between deeply delithiated layered and degraded rock‐salt phases at high voltage. These findings deepen the degradation mechanism of high‐voltage cathodes to achieve long‐cycling and fast‐charging performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

The impact of regional resources and technology availability on carbon dioxide removal potential in the United States

To achieve net zero carbon emissions by mid-century, the United States may need to rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to offset emissions from difficult-to-decarbonize sectors and/or shortfalls in near-term mitigation efforts. CDR can be delivered using many approaches with different requirements for land, water, geologic carbon storage capacity, energy, and other resources. The availability of these resources varies by region in the U.S. suggesting that CDR deployment will be uneven across the country. Using the global change analysis model for the United States (GCAM-USA), we modeled six classes of CDR and explored their potential using four scenarios: a scenario where all the CDR pathways are available (Full Portfolio), a scenario with restricted carbon capture and storage (Low CCS), a scenario where the availability of bio-based CDR options is limited (Low Bio), and a scenario with constraints on enhanced rock weathering (ERW) capabilities (Low ERW). We find that by employing a diverse set of CDR approaches, the U.S. could remove between 1 and 1.9 GtCO 2 /yr by midcentury. In the Full Portfolio scenario, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) predominates, delivering approximately 50% of CO 2 removal, with bioenergy with carbon capture and storage contributing 25%, and ERW delivering 11.5%. Texas and the agricultural Midwest lead in CDR deployment due to their abundant agricultural land and geological storage availability. In the Low CCS scenario, reliance on DACCS decreases, easing pressure on energy systems but increasing pressure on the land. In all cases CDR deployment was found to drive important impacts on energy, land, or materials supply chains (to supply ERW, for example) and these effects were generally more pronounced when fewer CDR technologies were available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating Material Properties of Subsurface Rock Formations Modified by Engineering Mineral Precipitation (Final Scientific and Technical Report)

Montana State University’s (MSU) Energy Research Institute (ERI), in collaboration with the Center for Biofilm Engineering (CBE) and the Department of Civil Engineering (CE), has conducted a long‐term research program aimed at developing a novel cementing agent to address wellbore integrity and reduce the unwanted upward migration of fluids and greenhouse gases from the subsurface. The primary technology developed through this research program is known as ureolysis‐induced calcite precipitation (UICP), which harnesses bio‐chemical processes to precipitate calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ). The same general process can also be called microbially-induced calcium carbonate precipitation (MICP) when microbes provide the process-catalyzing urease enzyme. Both terms are used in this report. Results have conclusively demonstrated that, if properly controlled, UICP can successfully seal fractures, high permeability zones, and compromised cement in the vicinity of wellbores and in nearby caprock. This technology has been successfully deployed to mitigate annular leakage in two test wells and over sixty commercial wells with a 100% success rate. This success in downhole deployment generates consideration of other subsurface applications where UICP could provide benefit to the energy sector, such as shale property modification for unconventional oil and gas recovery. The focus of this research project was to investigate fundamental material and mechanical properties of select shale cores and analyze how these properties change due to engineered mineral precipitation with the intent to control these properties to achieve a range of engineering objectives. Ultimately, the project aim was to identify valuable new areas where application of UICP might contribute to national energy security and environmental protection. The research workplan coupled UICP treatment of core samples, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) characterization, and mechanical strength testing at MSU with advanced X‐Ray micro-computed tomography (μCT) imaging and numerical modeling performed by collaborators at two national laboratories, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). Experimental results are useful to inform geo-mechanical models which could be applied to predict mineralized rock formation behavior at field scale. Our findings suggest that NMR and μCT methods to detect and quantify biomineral formation in shale fractures are complementary and consistent with each other. Either could be used to estimate the volume of new mineral formed by UICP in shale fractures. The use of surfactants and guar gum to enhance biomineral precipitation in shale fractures merits further research. UICP can, under some conditions, increase the tensile strength of sealed shale fractures beyond that of the intact shale. These findings demonstrate that continued research in this area may be valuable to understanding and improving shale resource recovery techniques.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stress analysis using direct-S wavelets produced by a vertical vibrator

We have determined how to extract the azimuth of maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) in deep rocks by doing a simple 360° mathematical rotation of a downgoing direct-S wavelet generated at the baseplate of a surface-based vertical vibrator. We worked with direct-S wavelets that travel through stressed rocks to a deep horizontal vertical seismic profile (VSP) geophone. We find that the azimuth where a polarity reversal occurs in mathematical rotations of this downgoing direct-S wavelet defines the azimuth of the SHmax in the overlying rocks. We tested this direct-S wavelet rotation method for determining the SHmax azimuth at a site in the Illinois Basin using legacy VSP data acquired in 2013. SHmax azimuths indicated by this simple wavelet-rotation method were determined when vertical vibrators were stationed at zero offset, at far offset, and at different azimuths around a VSP receiver well. These VSP-based SHmax azimuths agreed with the azimuth of the SHmax found by traditional minifrac tests in the VSP receiver well. This simple VSP data analysis procedure for detecting the azimuth of maximum horizontal stress has never, to our knowledge, been reported or discussed in the geophysical literature. This technical finding should be of interest to the worldwide geophysical community, especially to people who need to monitor how stress fields shift when fluids are injected into, or extracted from, deep porous reservoirs.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NASA NTRS2010

In Situ Investigation of Iron Meteorites at Meridiani Planum Mars

The Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity has encountered four iron meteorites at its landing site in Meridiani Planum. The first one, informally named "Heat Shield Rock", measuring approx.30 by 15 cm, was encountered in January 2005 [1, 2] and officially recognized as the first iron meteorite on the martian surface with the name "Meridiani Planum" after the location of its find [3]. We will refer to it as "Heat Shield Rock" to avoid confusion with the site. Between July and October 2009, separated approx.10 km from Heat Shield Rock, three other iron meteorite fragments were encountered, informally named "Block Island" (approx.60 cm across), "Shelter Island" (approx.50 by 20 cm), and "Mackinac Island" (approx.30 cm across). Heat Shield Rock and Block Island, the two specimens investigated in detail, are shown in Figure 1. Here, we focus on the meteorites chemistry and mineralogy. An overview in the mission context is given in [4]; other abstracts discuss their morphology [5], photometric properties [6], and their provenance [7].

Fleischer, I.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Sedimentary Geochemistry of Martian Samples from the Pathfinder Mission

The purpose of this research project was to evaluate the APXS data collected on soils and rocks at the Pathfinder site in terms of sedimentary geochemistry. Below are described the major findings of this research: (1) An influential model to explain the chemical variation among Pathfinder soils and rocks is a two component mixing model where rocks of fairly uniform composition mix with soil of uniform composition; (2) The very strong positive correlation between MgO and SO, points to a control by a MgSO4 mineral however, spectroscopic data continue to suggest that Fe-sulfates, notably schwertmannite and jarosite, may be important components; (3) In an attempt to better understand the causes of complexities in mixing relationships, the possible influence of sedimentary transport has been evaluated; (4) Another aspect of this research has been to examine the possibility of sedimentary silica being a significant phase on Mars; and (5) On Earth, the geochemistry of sedimentary rocks has been used to constrain the chemical composition of the continental crust and an important part of this research was to evaluate this approach for Mars.

McLennan, Scott M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Geophysical Signatures of Crack Network Coalescence in Rocks at Multiple Length Scales

The main goal of the research project was to identify the geophysical signatures of fracture growth in natural rocks by utilizing novel geophysical techniques. The research objectives were to (a) investigate the potential for geophysical methods to determine when cracks initiate, the types and locations of propagated cracks, and the coalescence of networks of cracks in natural rocks at multiple scales, (b) determine how damage at the microscale evolved into damage at the macroscale and then link the microscopic and macroscopic observations, (c) quantify crack coalescence in rocks under realistic stress conditions using coupled mechanical-geophysical-optical visualization, and (d) identify the precursors in geophysical signals to crack coalescence. The following research thrusts were explored to achieve the research objectives: (1) uniaxial compression testing of rock specimens with and without a set of pre‐existing flaws and (2) triaxial compression testing of natural rock specimens. These thrusts allowed for exploring fracturing in rocks under realistic in situ environments and at multiple scales. This project provided educational opportunities for nine graduate and undergraduate students and resulted in 27 peer-reviewed publications. This first research thrust focused on investigating the micromechanics of fractures in rocks through uniaxial compression testing combined with advanced geophysical and imaging techniques, specifically acoustic emission (AE) monitoring, ultrasonic imaging, and 2-dimensional Digital Image Correlation (2D-DIC). By examining damage processes under time-independent and time-dependent loading conditions, insights into damage localization, crack initiation, and fracturing mechanisms were gained. It was observed that the AE signals and the strain-based measurements directly reflect the state of damage in the rock specimen and could be used to identify the cracking levels, such as the crack initiation (CI) and crack damage (CD), and the mode of deformation. A novel calibration apparatus was developed to enhance the accuracy of AE sensors, allowing for the estimation of key parameters such as magnitude, source dimension, stress drop, and radiated seismic energy associated with the fractures. The findings highlighted significant variations in the temporal evolution of AE source parameters during the primary, secondary, and tertiary stages of creep, identifying tensile cracking as the primary deformation mode. The second research thrust focused on enhancing the understanding of fracturing processes in natural rocks through triaxial compression testing, real-time AE monitoring, and ultrasonic monitoring. We investigated the impact of various factors such as fracture propagation regimes, injection parameters, rock types, and pre-existing conditions on the hydraulic fracture (HF) behavior using scaled true-triaxially loaded specimens of Barre granite and Lyons sandstone. Custom sensor housing facilitated concurrent active and passive monitoring to analyze hydro-mechanical responses and microseismicity associated with different HF scenarios. A coupled investigation of passive microseismicity and active signal attributes permitted a detailed comprehension of the various HF processes (aseismic deformation, fracture initiation and propagation, fluid permeation, and leak-off) and their dependence on the specific rock type. The findings of this research demonstrated the effectiveness of AE monitoring techniques in providing valuable insights into the impact of various factors on the behavior and dynamics of HF processes. The advancements in monitoring techniques, offering a more thorough and precise approach, represent a significant step towards optimizing HF practices and ensuring sustainable resource extraction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Redox and mineral controls on Fe and Ti isotopic fractionations during calc-alkaline magmatic differentiation

Titanium and Fe isotopic compositions of lavas from a calc-alkaline differentiation suite and corresponding mineral separates from the Rindjani Volcano, Indonesia show that Fe and Ti isotopic fractionations between minerals and melts are lower than those recorded in other suites at all stages of differentiation. Here, the limited isotopic fractionation for Ti is likely due to low-Ti magnetite and clinopyroxene being the dominant carriers of Ti in Rindjani lavas, as these minerals are thought to have limited equilibrium Ti isotopic fractionation relative to silicate magmas. Other magmatic differentiation suites controlled by removal of Ti-rich magnetite and characterized by a lesser role of clinopyroxene have larger Ti isotopic fractionations. This effect is an indirect consequence of the elevated Fe 3+ /Fe 2+ ratio of calc-alkaline magmas such as Rindjani, which promotes Fe 3+ incorporation into magnetite at the expense of Fe 2+ -Ti 4+ pairs, such that increased oxygen fugacity will subdue Ti isotopic fractionation in global magmatic series. Similarly, we find negligible Fe isotopic fractionation in Rindjani bulk rocks and mineral separates, unlike previous studies. This is also likely due to the oxidized nature of the Rindjani differentiation suite, which leads to similar Fe 3+ /Fe 2+ ratios in melt and minerals and decreases overall mineral-melt Fe fractionation factors. Paired Ti and Fe isotopic analyses may therefore represent a powerful tool to assess oxygen fugacity during differentiation, independent from Fe 3+ determinations of erupted samples.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of actinide abundances and isotopic compositions by HR-ICP-MS. Part 2: Results from actinide doping studies

Previously, we presented actinide isotopic and elemental data from fallout melt glass that was measured using high-resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (HR-ICP-MS). Direct comparison between these measurements and ‘gold standard’ data obtained by multi-collector ICP-MS showed broad overlap, indicating that HR-ICP-MS is a potentially valuable technique for producing actinide elemental and isotopic data on a relatively rapid timescale. To test the usefulness of this technique further, we doped varying amounts of uranium certified reference materials (CRMs) into a rhyolitic rock standard to establish the effects of uranium concentration and isotopic composition on the accuracy of uranium isotopic analyses by HR-ICP-MS. This also enabled us to quantify peak tailing effects from 238 U on the measurement of 239 Pu and 237 Np, which in turn allows us to constrain correction factors based on measured 237 Np/ 238 U and 239 Pu/ 238 U ratios. A second doping study involved the addition of a mixed actinide standard into three samples with different matrix compositions (termed soil, city, and seawater) to assess whether sample chemistry affects the accuracy and precision of these analyses. Results suggest that this is not the case. Systematic offsets were not observed in elemental or isotopic data derived from the three matrix samples. Results indicate that useful actinide isotopic data can be obtained from whole rock solutions by HR-ICP-MS. Our findings also have implications for solid sampling techniques such as laser ablation ICP-MS, which do not require sample dissolution.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

NASA NTRS1981

Parametric study of thermal storage containing rocks or fluid filled cans for solar heating and cooling, phase 2

The test data and an analysis of the heat transfer characteristics of a solar thermal energy storage bed utilizing water filled cans and standard bricks as energy storage medium are presented. This experimental investigation was initiated to find a usable heat intensive solar thermal storage device other than rock storage and water tank. Four different sizes of soup cans were stacked in a chamber in three different arrangements-vertical, horizontal, and random. Air is used as transfer medium for charging and discharge modes at three different mass flow rates and inlet air temperature respectively. These results are analyzed and compared, which show that a vertical stacking and medium size cans with Length/Diameter (L/D) ratio close to one have better average characteristics of heat transfer and pressure drop.

Saha, H.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Validation of earthquake ground-motion models in southern California, USA, using precariously balanced rocks

Accurate estimates of earthquake ground shaking rely on uncertain ground-motion models derived from limited instrumental recordings of historical earthquakes. A critical issue is that there is currently no method to empirically validate the resultant ground-motion estimates of these models at the timescale of rare, large earthquakes; this lack of validation causes great uncertainty in ground-motion estimates. Here, we address this issue and validate ground-motion estimates for southern California utilizing the unexceeded ground motions recorded by 20 precariously balanced rocks. We used cosmogenic 10Be exposure dating to model the age of the precariously balanced rocks, which ranged from ca. 1 ka to ca. 50 ka, and calculated their probability of toppling at different ground-motion levels. With this rock data, we then validated the earthquake ground motions estimated by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) seismic-source characterization and the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 ground-motion models. We found that no ground-motion model estimated levels of earthquake ground shaking consistent with the observed continued existence of all 20 precariously balanced rocks. The ground-motion model I14 estimated ground-motion levels that were inconsistent with the most rocks; therefore, I14 was invalidated and removed. At a 2475 year mean return period, the removal of this invalid ground-motion model resulted in a 2−7% reduction in the mean and a 10−36% reduction in the 5th−95th fractile uncertainty of the ground-motion estimates. Our findings demonstrate the value of empirical data from precariously balanced rocks as a validation tool for removing invalid ground-motion models and, in turn, reducing the uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion estimates.

Geology↗