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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Cyber Attack Sequences Generation for Electric Power Grid

Security assessment of cyber-physical energy systems (CPESs) such as the electric power grid is a critical operation to maintain availability, reliability, and quality of service in the presence of persistent threats from malicious cyber actors. Existing security assessment approaches such as penetration testing and red teaming rely on subject matter expert experience and forensic cyber analysis of historical events to perform realistic, threat-informed assessments of CPES defense. CPESs have a large attack surface because of the heterogeneity and complexity of underlying topology, devices, measurements, and vulnerabilities. The aforementioned approaches lead to partial coverage of the attack surface with a large set of unknown but possible exploits. There is a need to automate the CPES attack surface discovery and contextualize it for relevant, highly probable, real-world attack scenarios. We propose a methodology and framework to facilitate the discovery of the CPES attack surface. We present a multilayer attack graph with ranked attack sequences to describe CPES failure scenarios. We present a work-in-progress framework that lists key components to automate the attack modeling and sequence generation. We demonstrate the published National Electric Sector Cybersecurity Organization Resource CPES failure scenario to highlight the trustworthiness of generated attack sequences.

Dutta, Ashutosh↗

HIPSTER (Harmonized Impacts across Products, Scenarios, and Technologies for Environmental and Resource metrics) [SWR-24-17]

Development of a prototype, code-based life cycle assessment framework, the Harmonized Impacts across Products, Scenarios, and Technologies for Environmental and Resource metrics (HIPSTER), to coherently assess outputs of prospective NREL models across environmental and resource use metrics. Eventually, HIPSTER is aimed to also cover socioeconomic and justice metrics. At present, NREL model scenario impact assessments are performed incoherently, as they as based on varying assumptions and inputs, specifically life cycle inventories, and cover different system boundaries. HIPSTER was created to align the assumptions and boundaries with those of cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment. In FY22, HIPSTER was successfully applied using scenarios from the ReEDS™ model, NREL's flagship capacity expansion model resulting in cradle-to-grace time-series life cycle impacts across LCA midpoints and resource use metrics.

Ghosh, Tapajyoti↗

A Software/Hardware Framework for Efficient and Safe Emergency Response in Post-Crash Scenarios of Battery Electric Vehicles

The adoption rate of battery electric vehicles (EVs) is rapidly increasing. Electric vehicles differ significantly from conventional internal combustion engine vehicles and vary widely across different manufacturers. Emergency responders (ERs) and recovery personnel may have less experience with EVs and lack timely access to critical information such as the extent of the stranded energy present, high-voltage safety hazards, and post-crash handling procedures in a user-friendly manner. This paper presents a software/hardware interactive tool named Electric Vehicle Information for Incident Response Solutions (EVIRS) to aid in the quick access to emergency response and recovery information. The current prototype of EVIRS identifies EVs using the VIN or Make, Model, and Year, and offers several useful features for ERs and recovery personnel. These features include integration and easy access to emergency response procedures tailored to an identified EV, vehicle structural schematics, the quick identification of battery pack specifications, and more. For EVs that are not severely damaged, EVIRS can perform calculations to estimate stranded energy in the EV’s battery and discharge time for various power loads using either EV dashboard information or operational data accessed through the CAN interface. Knowledge of this information may be helpful in the post-crash handling, management, and storage of an EV. The functionality and accuracy of EVIRS were demonstrated through laboratory tests using a 2021 Ford Mach-E and associated data acquisition system. The results indicated that when the remaining driving range was used as an input, EVIRS was able to estimate the pack voltage with an error of less than 3 V. Conversely, when pack voltage was used as an input, the estimated state of charge (SOC) error was less than 5% within the range of 30–90% SOC. Additionally, other features, such as retrieving emergency response guides for identified EVs and accessing lessons learned from archived incidents, have been successfully demonstrated through EVIRS for quick access. EVIRS can be a valuable tool for emergency responders and recovery personnel, both in action and during offline training, by providing crucial information related to assessing EV/battery safety risks, appropriate handling, de-energizing, transport, and storage in an integrated and user-friendly manner.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Optimal decision-making in high-throughput virtual screening pipelines

Screening large pools of molecular candidates to identify those with specific design criteria or targeted properties is demanding in various science and engineering domains. While a high-throughput virtual screening (HTVS) pipeline can provide efficient means to achieving this goal, its design and operation often rely on experts' intuition, potentially resulting in suboptimal performance. In this paper, we fill this critical gap by presenting a systematic framework that can maximize the return on computational investment (ROCI) of such HTVS campaigns. Based on various scenarios, we empirically validate the proposed framework and demonstrate its potential to accelerate scientific discoveries through optimal computational campaigns, especially in the context of virtual screening.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimizing Power Line Undergrounding Decisions under Varying Wildfire Risk and Weather Scenarios

Abstract—The threat of wildfire ignitions from electric power equipment has led utilities to increasingly turn to preemptive power shutoffs, which, while effective in reducing grid-induced wildfire risk, can cause significant load loss. Undergrounding power lines is an alternative strategy for preventing grid-induced wildfires. However, undergrounding lines is costly, so an efficient undergrounding plan must balance reductions in wildfire risk and load loss with the cost of undergrounding lines. We propose a robust optimization model to identify which power lines to underground to maximize load served while limiting wildfire risk across a range of wildfire risk and weather scenarios. Since solving this problem may be computationally heavy for large power grids and many operating scenarios, we present a delayed constraint generation algorithm to iteratively add scenarios until an optimal solution is found. We evaluate the performance of this framework on the RTS-GMLC with scenarios representing a year of operating conditions and compare it with a stochastic programming formulation. Our results indicate that our undergrounding model is successful in reducing load shed and risk compared to baseline cases in which no mitigation action is taken and only power shutoffs are implemented (no undergrounding). The robust formulation also reduces more load shed than the stochastic formulation in the most extreme scenarios. Index Terms—grid resilience, optimization, transmission systems, underground power lines, wildfire risk.

Taylor, S. [Department of Electrical and Computer ↗

A novel framework for hosting capacity analysis with spatio-temporal probabilistic voltage sensitivity analysis

Smart grids are envisioned to accommodate high penetration of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation, which may cause adverse grid impacts in terms of voltage violations. Therefore, PV Hosting capacity is being used as a planning tool to determine the maximum PV installation capacity that causes the first voltage violation and above which would require infrastructure upgrades. Additionally, traditional methods of Hosting capacity analysis are scenario based and computationally complex as they rely on iterative load flow algorithms that require investigating a large number of scenarios for accurate assessment of PV impacts. Therefore, this paper presents a computationally efficient analytical approach to compute the probability distribution of voltage change due to random behavior of randomly located multiple distributed PVs. The proposed approach is based on Spatio-temporal probabilistic voltage sensitivity analysis that exploits both spatial and temporal uncertainties associated with PV injections. Thereafter, the derived distribution is used to quantify voltage violations for various PV penetration levels and subsequently determine the hosting capacity of the system without the need to examine large number of scenarios. Results of the proposed framework are validated via conventional load flow based simulation approach on the IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 node test systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamics Informed Optimization for Resilient Energy Systems

Optimal mitigation planning for highly disruptive contingencies to a transmission-level power system requires optimization with dynamic power system constraints, due to the key role of dynamics in system stability to major perturbations. We formulate a generalized disjunctive program to determine optimal grid component hardening choices for protecting against major failures, with differential algebraic constraints representing system dynamics (specifically, differential equations representing generator and load behavior and algebraic equations representing instantaneous power balance over the transmission system). We optionally allow stochastic optimal pre-positioning across all considered failure scenarios, and optimal emergency control within each scenario. This novel formulation allows, for the first time, analyzing the resilience interdependencies of mitigation planning, preventive control, and emergency control. Using all three strategies in concert is particularly effective at maintaining robust power system operation under severe contingencies, as we demonstrate on the Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC) 9-bus test system using synthetic multi-device outage scenarios. Towards integrating our modeling framework with real threats and more realistic power systems, we explore applying hybrid dynamics to power systems. Our work is applied to basic RL circuits with the ultimate goal of using the methodology to model protective tripping schemes in the grid. Finally, we survey mitigation techniques for HEMP threats and describe a GIS application developed to create threat scenarios in a grid with geographic detail.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Leveraging BERT and Network-Based Attention Analysis for Identifying Treatment Milestones in EHRs

This study introduces a sophisticated data-driven framework for analyzing Electronic Health Records (EHRs) using transformer-based models to identify and disentangle overlapping treatment contexts. The framework leverages a preprocessing pipeline that transforms structured procedural codes into semantically enriched descriptive text, enabling the use of attention mechanisms to cluster medical events into treatment milestones—cohesive and distinct components of care processes. The methodology is rigorously validated using synthetic datasets derived from the MIMIC-III database, designed to simulate the heterogeneity and overlapping procedural contexts characteristic of real-world EHR scenarios. Quantitative evaluation highlights the framework’s robustness in disentangling concurrent care pathways, with attention metrics and unsupervised clustering approaches demonstrating the ability to preserve intra-context relationships while distinguishing inter-context dependencies. By addressing challenges inherent in data heterogeneity, this approach provides a foundation for uncovering complex treatment patterns, advancing clinical decision-making, and optimizing resource allocation in diverse healthcare environments.

Kim, Minsu [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000224185535)↗

Kinklike structures in an arcsin real scalar dynamics

Highlights: • Kinklike analyses in a real scalar theory with an arcsin dynamic. • First-order formalism implementation and deformation procedure in an arcsin scalar dynamics. In this paper, we analyze kink-like analytical solutions in a real scalar theory with an arcsin dynamics inspired by the arcsin electrodynamics presented in Kruglov (2015). This analysis is done by means of the first-order formalism. This formalism provides a framework where the equations of motion can be simplified by preserving the linear stability of the theory. In this work, the deformation procedure is implemented with the aim of finding exact solutions in systems with generalized dynamics. Along the paper, we explore how the first-order formalism is implemented in the arcsin kinetics and how such a term influences the kink-like solutions. As a part of the result of our paper, we show that the kink-like solutions are similar to the ones obtained in the standard scalar kinetic theory. We also show that the extra parameter, that controls the non-linearities of the model, plays an essential role in the energy densities and stability potentials. These quantities vary according to this parameter. The goals here are to show how the first-order framework is implemented in this arcsin scenario and to present the analytical kink-like solutions that can be found by means of the first-order framework and deformation method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Data for Greenhouse Gas Accounting Procedures in Low Carbon Fuel Policies Overlook the Spatial Variability of Miscanthus-Derived Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Low carbon fuel policies such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) as well as the 45Z tax credit are intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. Cellulosic feedstocks, optimized biorefineries, and favorable farming locations can significantly reduce biofuel carbon intensity (CI). Despite advances in field-to-fuel GHG monitoring and flexibility in resource allocation within biorefineries (e.g., governing net electricity production), rigid CI accounting procedures in current policies may limit CI responsiveness across candidate sites and processing facilities. This work examines a hypothetical biomass-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathway using miscanthus and alcohol-to-jet (i) to demonstrate how GHG accounting requirements drive estimates of biofuel CIs and (ii) to explore potential CI and financial implications of scenario-specific life cycle assessment (LCA). Results demonstrate that GHG accounting using the CFR/LCFS can reasonably account for distinct levels of net electricity production by a biorefinery, but only the CFR yields similar CI sensitivity to spatially explicit factors (feedstock CI, grid electricity CI) as scenario-specific LCA: most GHG accounting frameworks do not capture CI variation across candidate sites in the United States. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the importance of LCA methodological specifications in low carbon fuel policies and tax credits.

Miscanthus↗

Impacts of water scarcity on agricultural production and electricity generation in the Middle East and North Africa

Incorporating the interdependencies between water, energy and food (WEF) within an integrated approach of planning and management could help nations worldwide to address sustainability concerns. This is a topic of great importance for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where water is a very limited resource. In this study, we develop an analytical framework to analyze the water-energy-food nexus in the MENA region to inform the formulation of integrated strategies for water, energy and food activities. Our approach is based on an integrated assessment model for the MENA region, which explicitly represents WEF sectors within an economic framework, in tandem with a set of relevant scenarios addressing three key dimensions (socioeconomics, climate and water-management). Using this framework, our study analyzes the current and projected status of water resources in the region, and the potential implications for the agriculture and electricity sectors. Our scenarios demonstrate that water scarcity worsens by the end of the 21st century in most MENA countries, mostly due to growing demands. The impacts of growing scarcity on agriculture are significant, with production projected to drop by 60 percent by 2050 in some countries. On the other hand, and to a lesser extent, water-saving technologies and fuel-switching in the power sector play a key role in mitigating the effects of water scarcity on electricity generation in some parts of the MENA region. Our analysis then underscores the need to reduce the dependence of MENA’s agricultural and energy sectors on water, and transition to renewable energies to reduce water scarcity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian learning of orthogonal embeddings for multi-fidelity Gaussian Processes

Uncertainty propagation in complex engineering systems often poses significant computational challenges related to modeling and quantifying probability distributions of model outputs, as those emerge as the result of various sources of uncertainty that are inherent in the system under investigation. Gaussian Processes regression (GPs) is a robust meta-modeling technique that allows for fast model prediction and exploration of response surfaces. Multi-fidelity variations of GPs further leverage information from cheap and low fidelity model simulations in order to improve their predictive performance on the high fidelity model. In order to cope with the high volume of data required to train GPs in high dimensional design spaces, a common practice is to introduce latent design variables that are typically projections of the original input space to a lower dimensional subspace, and therefore substitute the problem of learning the initial high dimensional mapping, with that of training a GP on a low dimensional space. Here in this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to identify optimal transformations that map the input points to low dimensional latent variables. The \projection" mapping consists of an orthonormal matrix that is considered a priori unknown and needs to be inferred jointly with the GP parameters, conditioned on the available training data. The proposed Bayesian inference scheme relies on a two-step iterative algorithm that samples from the marginal posteriors of the GP parameters and the projection matrix respectively, both using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In order to take into account the orthogonality constraints imposed on the orthonormal projection matrix, a Geodesic Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is employed, that is suitable for exploiting probability measures on manifolds. We extend the proposed framework to multi-fidelity models using GPs including the scenarios of training multiple outputs together. We validate our framework on three synthetic problems with a known lower-dimensional subspace. The benefits of our proposed framework, are illustrated on the computationally challenging aerodynamic optimization of a last-stage blade for an industrial gas turbine, where we study the effect of an 85-dimensional shape parameterization of a three-dimensional airfoil on two output quantities of interest, specifically on the aerodynamic efficiency and the degree of reaction

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Framework for Assessing Impact of Wave-Powered Desalination on Resilience of Coastal Communities

Coastal communities face unique challenges in maintaining continuous service from critical infrastructure. This research advances capabilities for evaluating the impact of using wave energy to desalinate water on the resilience of coastal communities. The study focuses on the feasibility of using wave energy conversion to provide drinking water to communities in need and applying resilience metrics to quantify its impact on the community. To assess the feasibility of wave-powered desalination, this research couples the open-source software Wave Energy Converter SIMulator (WEC-Sim) and Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR). This research explores variations in both the wave resource (location, seasonality, and duration) and the ability to maintain drinking water service during a disruption scenario by applying the simulation framework to three case studies, which are based on communities in Puerto Rico. The simulation framework provides a contextualized assessment of the ability of wave-powered desalination to improve the resilience of coastal communities, which can serve as a methodology for future studies seeking the integration of wave-powered desalination with water distribution systems.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Estimation of China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor performance and burning fraction in different pellet fueling scenarios by a multi-species radial transport model

Tritium self-sufficiency in future deuterium–tritium fusion reactors is a crucial challenge. As an engineering test reactor, the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor requires a burning fraction of 3% for the goal to test the accessibility to the future fusion plant. To self-consistently simulate burning plasmas with profile changes in pellet injection scenarios and to estimate the corresponding burning fraction, a one-dimensional multi-species radial transport model is developed in the BOUT++ framework. Here several pellet-fueling scenarios are then tested in the model. The results show that the increased fueling depth improves the burning fraction by particle confinement improvement and fusion power increase. Nevertheless, by increasing the depth, the pellet cooling-down may significantly lower the temperature in the core region. Taking the density perturbation into consideration, the reasonable parameters of the fueling scenario in these simulations are estimated as pellet radius ${r}_{{\rm{p}}}=3\,{\rm{mm}},$ injection rate $=\,4\,\mathrm{Hz},$ and pellet injection velocity $=\,1000\mbox{-}2000\,{\rm{m}}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$ without drift or $450\,{\rm{m}}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$ with high-field-side drift.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

What Is the Best Use of Biomass? A Harmonized LCA-TEA Framework Quantifying Economic and Environmental Metrics for Bioenergy Pathways

Bioresource utilization is expected to play a pivotal role in complementing existing energy pathways and enhancing energy resilience. This study develops a harmonized life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) framework to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP), and marginal abatement cost (MAC) of bioenergy pathways. We analyze 19 pathways, including liquid biofuels (via catalytic fast pyrolysis, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and gasification), bioelectricity, and biomass-to-hydrogen, with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS). The GHG impacts are assessed using the GREET 2022 model, while U.S. Billion-Ton 2016 biomass availability projections are used to estimate scale-up potential. Additionally, we evaluate the influence of a low-carbon electricity grid on pathway performance. Our results show that CCS implementation reduces carbon intensities (CI) to net-negative values for several pathways, with MAC ranging from $\$$32 to $\$$600 per metric ton (MT) CO2e avoided. Bioelectricity pathways with CCS achieve the lowest MAC ($\$$32–$\$$68/tCO2e), while liquid biofuels and hydrogen pathways remain critical for hard-to-abate sectors like aviation and heavy industry. Pathways with net-positive electricity demand benefit from a low-carbon grid, whereas those co-producing electricity experience increased MAC under lower electricity grid CI scenarios. This open-source framework provides a robust tool for harmonized evaluation of bioenergy pathways, enabling policymakers and stakeholders to identify cost-effective strategies for biomass utilization and carbon abatement at scale. The findings underscore the importance of CCS, co-product credits, and feedstock availability in optimizing bioenergy deployment for a low-carbon economy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

An Open-Source Decarbonization Analytics Framework: Designing for Low-Carbon Emission Districts and Communities: Preprint

This paper introduces an open-source analytics framework designed to assist in creating low or net-zero carbon buildings and urban districts. Integrated within URBANopt, an open-source platform for energy analysis in districts and communities, this framework equips researchers, architects, engineers, and other stakeholders with tools to evaluate the carbon footprint implications of their design choices. The framework enables the analysis of various scenarios, incorporating both historical and future emission factors, and can span across different climate zones, each with distinct grid and emissions characteristics. The results showcase the framework's capability to evaluate the impact of design upgrades and control strategies on carbon emissions in districts and communities. An illustrative analysis using a hypothetical district in Denver, Colorado, shows reduced emissions from energy efficiency upgrades and control strategies, highlighting the sensitivity in their effects on emissions and energy use.

buildings energy efficiency↗

Proactive demand-side participation: Centralized versus transactive demand-Supply coordination

The active participation of demand-side flexible resources in the wholesale market price formation and load dispatch process is crucial to encouraging demand-side participation. This calls for a joint supply-demand coordination mechanism to fully take advantage of the flexible resources in distribution systems, including distributed energy resources (DERs) and responsive loads (RLs). Here this paper aims at comparing and evaluating the centralized and transactive distribution-level market coordination mechanisms. We introduce the centralized and transactive demand-supply coordination mechanisms for the distribution-level market and elaborate on the structural difference between the two frameworks. Relevant metrics and test scenarios are proposed for a meaningful comparison. The key observations of the comparative study are generalized from the perspective of different entities in the market: fixed loads, flexible loads, DERs, and conventional generators. It is observed that while the centralized approach leads to socially optimum solutions, the transactive approach by allowing for competitive bidding at the distribution-level, results in clearing higher flexible demand, and thus higher electricity cost at the transmission-level. As a result, DERs and fixed loads receive a higher surplus in the centralized approach, while conventional generators and flexible loads are more profitable in the transactive approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗