Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “scenario generation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

Integrating Models and Observations

For the past ten years, the coronal loops community has held bi-annual workshops to discuss the analysis of coronal loop observations and the latest efforts to model the loop structures. During this time, several heating scenarios have been proposed to explain loop observations. These heating scenarios rely on different heating frequencies, locations, and durations, as well as different loop sub-structure. Often the scenarios are developed to explain an observation, hence all heating scenarios match some observational criteria. The key to discriminating between the competing heating scenarios is to first identify the distinguishing observables. For instance, both effectively steady and nanoflare-heating scenarios can produce quasi-steady intensities. Observing quasi-steady intensities, then, does not help determine which heating scenario is most likely. These heating scenarios may, however, predict different velocities or different emission measure distributions. In this talk, I will discuss a few of the expected observations for some simple heating scenarios. I will ask the modeling community to calculate similar observations for the different heating scenarios to generate a standard list of expected observations. After the community develops this list, comparisons with actual loop observations can then distinguish the most likely heating scenario.

Womebarger, Amy↗

Exploring Transfers Between Earth-Moon Halo Orbits via Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning

Multi-Reward Proximal Policy Optimization, a multi-objective deep reinforcement learning algorithm, is used to examine the design space of low-thrust trajectories for a SmallSat transferring between two libration point orbits in the Earth-Moon system. Using Multi-Reward Proximal Policy Optimization, multiple policies are simultaneously and efficiently trained on three distinct trajectory design scenarios. Each policy is trained to create a unique control scheme based on the trajectory design scenario and assigned reward function: a unique combination of weights scaling competing objectives that guide the spacecraft to the target mission orbit, incentivize faster flight times, and penalize propellant mass usage. Then, the policies are evaluated on the same set of perturbed initial conditions in each scenario to generate the propellant mass usages, flight times, and state discontinuities from a reference trajectory for each control scheme. This solution space of low-thrust trajectories for a SmallSat is used to examine the multi-objective trade space for the trajectory design scenario. By autonomously constructing the solution space, insights into the required propellant mass, flight time, and transfer geometry are rapidly achieved.

Christopher J Sullivan↗

Exploring Transfers Between Earth-Moon Halo Orbits via Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning

Multi-Reward Proximal Policy Optimization, a multi-objective deep reinforcement learning algorithm, is used to examine the design space of low-thrust trajectories for a SmallSat transferring between two libration point orbits in the Earth- Moon system. Using Multi-Reward Proximal Policy Optimiza- tion, multiple policies are simultaneously and efficiently trained on three distinct trajectory design scenarios. Each policy is trained to create a unique control scheme based on the trajectory design scenario and assigned reward function: a unique combination of weights scaling competing objectives that guide the spacecraft to the target mission orbit, incentivize faster flight times, and penalize propellant mass usage. Then, the policies are evaluated on the same set of perturbed initial conditions in each scenario to generate the propellant mass usages, flight times, and state discontinuities from a reference trajectory for each control scheme. This solution space of low-thrust trajectories for a SmallSat is used to examine the multi-objective trade space for the trajectory design scenario. By autonomously constructing the solution space, insights into the required propellant mass, flight time, and transfer geometry are rapidly achieved.

Mashiku, Alinda K.↗

Reliability-Aware Requirements Development for Autonomy Software

Autonomy is the ability of a system to make decisions and take actions in the presence of uncertainty. Validating autonomy, therefore, is a matter of validating that the system makes intelligent decisions even when there might be discrepancies between the observed and the expected state of the world as well as when the possible outcome of each of the possible courses of action is uncertain. During the requirements engineering phase, the functions, including those that are required to be autonomous and their expected behavior are specified. However, in the case of autonomous software system, it is challenging to specify all possible scenarios that the software may encounter. Additionally, since autonomous behaviors cannot always be fully predetermined, it is difficult to reason about their completeness and correctness. While these challenges are also faced with non-autonomous system, they are more prevalent for autonomous system due to their complexity and emergent behavior. Our efforts have been three-fold. On one hand, we have developed a goal-based method for requirements decomposition. We have embedded this approach into a higher-level systems engineering framework and then developed methods for decision and reliability analysis within this framework. And finally, we use simulation analysis to validate the more theoretical methods and provide a feedback mechanism. The decision analysis approach (DA) helps in identifying and mitigating the run-time risks, by bringing to the forefront the uncertainties, decisions, interactions, and other factors that may cause autonomous software to make erroneous decisions. The DA framework is used to quantify, for each decision that the software can make, failure risk due to uncertainties. The information about the key decisions and circumstances that can cause autonomous system to make incorrect decisions are used to generate test scenarios to be run in a simulator to ensure that the system can handle error-prone circumstances. The results or outcomes from decisions, based on the simulated scenarios, can then be leveraged to further gain insight of the assured system. We combine a goal-based approach with simulation analysis to facilitate requirements development for autonomous systems and further provide a method for run-time systems level reliability considerations during the autonomous software development process. The DA and the reliability analysis methods provide a formalism for the consideration of uncertainty in the run time decision-making process for autonomous software. This formalism considers the uncertainty involved in the outcome of different courses of action, in terms of performance and cost, as well as a method to consider the system level reliability implications. System level reliability considerations for autonomous software decision making contribute to the satisfaction of the system level goals over the lifecycle of a given mission. We demonstrate our approach using a hypothetical rover path planning example. The requirements for our rover simulator are based on existing literature about Mars rovers and lessons learned from real world observations at JPL. The specifics of the autonomy design for the Mars rovers, that have not been previously cleared for external release, are not used for our demonstrations.

Lindvall, Mikael↗

Engineering calculations for communications satellite systems planning

Progress is reported on a computer code to improve the efficiency of spectrum and orbit utilization for the Broadcasting Satellite Service in the 12 GHz band for Region 2. It implements a constrained gradient search procedure using an exponential objective function based on aggregate signal to noise ratio and an extended line search in the gradient direction. The procedure is tested against a manually generated initial scenario and appears to work satisfactorily. In this test it was assumed that alternate channels use orthogonal polarizations at any one satellite location.

Martin, C. H.↗

Three dimensional audio versus head down TCAS displays

The advantage of a head up auditory display was evaluated in an experiment designed to measure and compare the acquisition time for capturing visual targets under two conditions: Standard head down traffic collision avoidance system (TCAS) display, and three-dimensional (3-D) audio TCAS presentation. Ten commercial airline crews were tested under full mission simulation conditions at the NASA Ames Crew-Vehicle Systems Research Facility Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator. Scenario software generated targets corresponding to aircraft which activated a 3-D aural advisory or a TCAS advisory. Results showed a significant difference in target acquisition time between the two conditions, favoring the 3-D audio TCAS condition by 500 ms.

Begault, Durand R.↗

Head-Up Auditory Displays for Traffic Collision Avoidance System Advisories: A Preliminary Investigation

The advantage of a head-up auditory display was evaluated in a preliminary experiment designed to measure and compare the acquisition time for capturing visual targets under two auditory conditions: standard one-earpiece presentation and two-earpiece three-dimensional (3D) audio presentation. Twelve commercial airline crews were tested under full mission simulation conditions at the NASA-Ames Man-Vehicle Systems Research Facility advanced concepts flight simulator. Scenario software generated visual targets corresponding to aircraft that would activate a traffic collision avoidance system (TCAS) aural advisory; the spatial auditory position was linked to the visual position with 3D audio presentation. Results showed that crew members using a 3D auditory display acquired targets approximately 2.2 s faster than did crew members who used one-earpiece head- sets, but there was no significant difference in the number of targets acquired.

Begault, Durand R.↗

A Conceptual Aerospace Vehicle Structural System Modeling, Analysis and Design Process

A process for aerospace structural concept analysis and design is presented, with examples of a blended-wing-body fuselage, a multi-bubble fuselage concept, a notional crew exploration vehicle, and a high altitude long endurance aircraft. Aerospace vehicle structures must withstand all anticipated mission loads, yet must be designed to have optimal structural weight with the required safety margins. For a viable systems study of advanced concepts, these conflicting requirements must be imposed and analyzed early in the conceptual design cycle, preferably with a high degree of fidelity. In this design process, integrated multidisciplinary analysis tools are used in a collaborative engineering environment. First, parametric solid and surface models including the internal structural layout are developed for detailed finite element analyses. Multiple design scenarios are generated for analyzing several structural configurations and material alternatives. The structural stress, deflection, strain, and margins of safety distributions are visualized and the design is improved. Over several design cycles, the refined vehicle parts and assembly models are generated. The accumulated design data is used for the structural mass comparison and concept ranking. The present application focus on the blended-wing-body vehicle structure and advanced composite material are also discussed.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

Surface Navigation Using Optimized Waypoints and Particle Swarm Optimization

The design priority for manned space exploration missions is almost always placed on human safety. Proposed manned surface exploration tasks (lunar, asteroid sample returns, Mars) have the possibility of astronauts traveling several kilometers away from a home base. Deviations from preplanned paths are expected while exploring. In a time-critical emergency situation, there is a need to develop an optimal home base return path. The return path may or may not be similar to the outbound path, and what defines optimal may change with, and even within, each mission. A novel path planning algorithm and prototype program was developed using biologically inspired particle swarm optimization (PSO) that generates an optimal path of traversal while avoiding obstacles. Applications include emergency path planning on lunar, Martian, and/or asteroid surfaces, generating multiple scenarios for outbound missions, Earth-based search and rescue, as well as human manual traversal and/or path integration into robotic control systems. The strategy allows for a changing environment, and can be re-tasked at will and run in real-time situations. Given a random extraterrestrial planetary or small body surface position, the goal was to find the fastest (or shortest) path to an arbitrary position such as a safe zone or geographic objective, subject to possibly varying constraints. The problem requires a workable solution 100% of the time, though it does not require the absolute theoretical optimum. Obstacles should be avoided, but if they cannot be, then the algorithm needs to be smart enough to recognize this and deal with it. With some modifications, it works with non-stationary error topologies as well.

Birge, Brian↗

Designing Mission Operations for the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory Mission

NASA's Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission, to understand the internal structure and thermal evolution of the Moon, offered unique challenges to mission operations. From launch through end of mission, the twin GRAIL orbiters had to be operated in parallel. The journey to the Moon and into the low science orbit involved numerous maneuvers, planned on tight timelines, to ultimately place the orbiters into the required formation-flying configuration necessary. The baseline GRAIL mission is short, only 9 months in duration, but progressed quickly through seven very unique mission phases. Compressed into this short mission timeline, operations activities and maneuvers for both orbiters had to be planned and coordinated carefully. To prepare for these challenges, development of the GRAIL Mission Operations System began in 2008. Based on high heritage multi-mission operations developed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Lockheed Martin, the GRAIL mission operations system was adapted to meet the unique challenges posed by the GRAIL mission design. This paper describes GRAIL's system engineering development process for defining GRAIL's operations scenarios and generating requirements, tracing the evolution from operations concept through final design, implementation, and validation.

MOS↗

Experimental Validation of Pulse Phase Tracking for X-Ray Pulsar Based

Pulsars are a form of variable celestial source that have shown to be usable as aids for autonomous, deep space navigation. Particularly those sources emitting in the X-ray band are ideal for navigation due to smaller detector sizes. In this paper X-ray photons arriving from a pulsar are modeled as a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The method of pulse phase tracking is then investigated as a technique to measure the radial distance traveled by a spacecraft over an observation interval. A maximum-likelihood phase estimator (MLE) is used for the case where the observed frequency signal is constant. For the varying signal frequency case, an algorithm is used in which the observation window is broken up into smaller blocks over which an MLE is used. The outputs of this phase estimation process were then looped through a digital phase-locked loop (DPLL) in order to reduce the errors and produce estimates of the doppler frequency. These phase tracking algorithms were tested both in a computer simulation environment and using the NASA Goddard Space flight Center X-ray Navigation Laboratory Testbed (GXLT). This provided an experimental validation with photons being emitted by a modulated X-ray source and detected by a silicon-drift detector. Models of the Crab pulsar and the pulsar B1821-24 were used in order to generate test scenarios. Three different simulated detector trajectories were used to be tracked by the phase tracking algorithm: a stationary case, one with constant velocity, and one with constant acceleration. All three were performed in one-dimension along the line of sight to the pulsar. The first two had a constant signal frequency and the third had a time varying frequency. All of the constant frequency cases were processed using the MLE, and it was shown that they tracked the initial phase within 0.15% for the simulations and 2.5% in the experiments, based on an average of ten runs. The MLE-DPLL cascade version of the phase tracking algorithm was used in the varying frequency case. This resulted in tracking of the phase and frequency by the DPLL outputs in both the simulation and experimental environments. The crab pulsar was experimentally tested with a trajectory with a higher acceleration. In this case the phase error tended toward zero as the observation extended to 250 seconds and the doppler frequency error tended to zero in under 100 seconds.

Experimental↗

Simulation of Liquid Rocket Engine Failure Propagation Using Self-Evolving Scenarios

Traditional probabilistic risk assessment approaches often require failure scenarios to be explicitly defined through event sequences that are then quantified as part of the integrated analysis. This approach becomes difficult when failure propagation paths change as a function of the system operation. Additionally, if the propagation paths represent interactions among even a modest number of components, the scenario count becomes combinatorially intractable. This paper presents an alternate approach for quantifying the probability of failure propagation in such a case. Rather than explicitly defining scenario sequences, simple physical models are created for each of the components. In this way, only the physical states and rules of component interactions must be defined, rather than event sequences for each individual scenario. Initiating failures are introduced into the system, either randomly or as defined by relative likelihood, and the failures cascade through the system via the interaction rules. This process is repeated using Monte Carlo methods and, as a result, the most probable scenarios “self-evolve” in terms of both sequence path and frequency. This approach was applied to failures occurring in the engine compartment of a space launch vehicle with four liquid rocket engines and four high-pressure helium tanks. Each engine was modeled with key components, such as turbomachinery, combustion chamber, propellant lines, and additional support systems. Three test cases were conducted with different high-energy engine failures. End results of interest included an additional engine-out failure and tank burst, which represent the loss-of-mission (LOM) and loss-of-crew (LOC) failure environments, respectively. Observations show that almost every scenario outcome is unique and that many scenarios involve complex chain reactions that are difficult to predict. This validates the usefulness of the modeling approach in assessing the overall risks to the crew during a launch vehicle abort.

Rocket Engine↗

Air Traffic Management TestBed Simulation Architect: User's Guide

The Air Traffic Management (ATM) TestBed is a Platform as a Service that is being developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to help design, configure, integrate, run, and monitor air traffic simulations. The platform provides cloud services including back-end big-data analytics tools, on-demand computing resource management, data storage, and communication middleware. The ATM TestBed reduces the time to test concepts and technologies, supports interactions among various concepts such as human-in-the-loop and automation-in-the-loop simulations, and enables collaborative simulations by sharing technologies and tools in the ATM community. The Simulation Architect application provides a graphical user interface tool for designing traffic scenarios and simulations using blocks representing components and links representing message channels linking them. This guide describes a high-level user interface design of Simulation Architect and provides information for a new user to compose traffic scenarios and simulations.

Software User Guide↗

Human Factors Engineering as a System in the Vision for Exploration

In order to accomplish NASA's Vision for Exploration, while assuring crew safety and productivity, human performance issues must be well integrated into system design from mission conception. To that end, a two-year Technology Development Project (TDP) was funded by NASA Headquarters to develop a systematic method for including the human as a system in NASA's Vision for Exploration. The specific goals of this project are to review current Human Systems Integration (HSI) standards (i.e., industry, military, NASA) and tailor them to selected NASA Exploration activities. Once the methods are proven in the selected domains, a plan will be developed to expand the effort to a wider scope of Exploration activities. The methods will be documented for inclusion in NASA-specific documents (such as the Human Systems Integration Standards, NASA-STD-3000) to be used in future space systems. The current project builds on a previous TDP dealing with Human Factors Engineering processes. That project identified the key phases of the current NASA design lifecycle, and outlined the recommended HFE activities that should be incorporated at each phase. The project also resulted in a prototype of a webbased HFE process tool that could be used to support an ideal HFE development process at NASA. This will help to augment the limited human factors resources available by providing a web-based tool that explains the importance of human factors, teaches a recommended process, and then provides the instructions, templates and examples to carry out the process steps. The HFE activities identified by the previous TDP are being tested in situ for the current effort through support to a specific NASA Exploration activity. Currently, HFE personnel are working with systems engineering personnel to identify HSI impacts for lunar exploration by facilitating the generation of system-level Concepts of Operations (ConOps). For example, medical operations scenarios have been generated for lunar habitation in order to identify HSI requirements for the lunar communications architecture. Throughout these ConOps exercises, HFE personnel are testing various tools and methodologies that have been identified in the literature. A key part of the effort is the identification of optimal processes, methods, and tools for these early development phase activities, such as ConOps, requirements development, and early conceptual design. An overview of the activities completed thus far, as well as the tools and methods investigated will be presented.

Mihriban Whitmore↗

Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios

This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most regions, while precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate. Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios. Compared to CMIP5, HAPPI slightly underestimates the CO2 concentration that corresponds to the +1.5 °C World but overestimates the CO2 concentration for the +2.0 °C World, which means that HAPPI scenarios may also lead to an overestimate in the beneficial effects of CO2 on crops in the +2.0 °C World. HAPPI enables detailed analysis of the shifting distribution of extreme growing season temperatures and precipitation, highlighting widespread increases in extreme heat seasons and heightened skewness toward hot seasons in the tropics. Shifts in the probability of extreme drought seasons generally tracked median precipitation changes; however, some regions skewed toward drought conditions even where median precipitation changes were small. Together, these findings highlight unique seasonal and agricultural region changes in the +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C worlds for adaptation planning in these climate stabilization targets.

Alexander C. Ruane↗

NASA's Global Precipitation Mission Ground Validation Segment

NASA is designing a Ground Validation Segment (GVS) as one of its contributions to the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The GPM GVS provides an independent means for evaluation, diagnosis, and ultimately improvement of the GPM spaceborne measurements and precipitation products. NASA's GPM GVS concept calls for a combination of direct observations executed within a Multidimensional Observing Volume (MOV) and model-based analyses executed by a Satellite Simulator Model (SSM). The MOV consists of ground-based instruments that measure local surface and atmospheric properties required for GPM validation. The SSM utilizes MOV measurements in a forward numerical model. The goal of the SSM forward modeling is calculation of the following properties: top-of-atmosphere microwave radiative quantities to within sensor noise of those measured by the GPM Core Satellite, precipitation quantities identical to those generated by the standard GPM precipitation retrieval algorithms, and quantitative/objective error estimates of both sets of quantities. At present, the GVS is in the early design stage and various scenarios have been generated to assess how it will be used in the GPM era. The GPM GVS will be operational in the year prior to the launch of the GPM core satellite, which has a launch date scheduled for December 2010.

GVS (GROUND VALIDATION SEGMENT)↗

Controlling the Growth of Future LEO Debris Populations with Active Debris Removal

Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario, where at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed based on the mass and collision probability of each object as the selection criterion, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year.

Liou, J.-C.↗

Eastern Equatorial Pacific Warming Delayed By Aerosols and Thermostat Response to Co2 Increase

Understanding the tropical Pacific response to global warming remains challenging. Here, we use a range of CMIP6 greenhouse warming experiments to assess the recent and future evolution of the equatorial Pacific east-west temperature gradient and corresponding Walker circulation. In abrupt CO2-increase scenarios many models generate an initial strengthening of this gradient resembling an ocean thermostat (OT), followed by a small weakening; other models generate an immediate weakening that becomes progressively stronger establishing a pronounced eastern equatorial Pacific (EP) warming pattern. The initial response in these experiments is a strong predictor for the future EP pattern simulated in both abrupt and realistic warming scenarios, but not in historical simulations showing no multi-model trend. The likely explanation is that the recent CO2-driven changes in the tropical Pacific are masked by aerosol effects and a potential OT-related delay, while the EP warming pattern will emerge as greenhouse gases overcome aerosol forcing.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗