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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
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NASA NTRS2018

Quantified, Localized Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions

Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits. However, 2 C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5 C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a 'standard' 2 C scenario to 1.5 C or could achieve 2 C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 +/- 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with approx.40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and greater than 200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

Atmospheric science↗
NASA NTRS2021

Simulation of Radon-222 with the GEOS-Chem Global Model: Emissions, Seasonality, and Convective Transport

Radon-222 (Rn-222) is a short-lived radioactive gas naturally emitted from land surfaces and has long been used to assess convective transport in atmospheric models. In this study, we simulate Rn-222 using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to improve our understanding of Rn-222 emissions and surface concentration seasonality and characterize convective transport associated with two Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) meteorological products, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS-FP). We evaluate four global Rn-222 emission scenarios by comparing model results with observations at 51 surface sites. The default emission scenario in GEOS-Chem yields a moderate agreement with surface observations globally (68.9 % of data within a factor of 2) and a large underestimate of winter surface Rn-222 concentrations at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and high latitudes due to an oversimplified formulation of Rn-222 emission fluxes (1 atom cm−2 s−1 over land with a reduction by a factor of 3 under freezing conditions). We compose a new global Rn-222 emission scenario based on Zhang et al. (2011) and demonstrate its potential to improve simulated surface Rn-222 concentrations and seasonality. The regional components of this scenario include spatially and temporally varying emission fluxes derived from previous measurements of soil radium content and soil exhalation models, which are key factors in determining Rn-222 emission flux rates. However, large model underestimates of surface Rn-222 concentrations still exist in Asia, suggesting unusually high regional Rn-222 emissions. We therefore propose a conservative upscaling factor of 1.2 for Rn-222 emission fluxes in China, which was also constrained by observed deposition fluxes of 210Pb (a progeny of Rn-222). With this modification, the model shows better agreement with observations in Europe and North America (> 80 % of data within a factor of 2) and reasonable agreement in Asia (close to 70 %). Further constraints on Rn-222 emissions would require additional concentration and emission flux observations in the central United States, Canada, Africa, and Asia. We also compare and assess convective transport in model simulations driven by MERRA and GEOS-FP using observed Rn-222 vertical profiles in northern midlatitude summer and from three short-term airborne campaigns. While simulations with both GEOS products are able to capture the observed vertical gradient of Rn-222 concentrations in the lower troposphere (0–4 km), neither correctly represents the level of convective detrainment, resulting in biases in the middle and upper troposphere. Compared with GEOS-FP, MERRA leads to stronger convective transport of Rn-222, which is partially compensated for by its weaker large-scale vertical advection, resulting in similar global vertical distributions of Rn-222 concentrations between the two simulations. This has important implications for using chemical transport models to interpret the transport of other trace species when these GEOS products are used as driving meteorology.

Bo Zhang↗
NASA NTRS2010

Core-Noise

This presentation is a technical progress report and near-term outlook for NASA-internal and NASA-sponsored external work on core (combustor and turbine) noise funded by the Fundamental Aeronautics Program Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) Project. Sections of the presentation cover: the SFW system level noise metrics for the 2015, 2020, and 2025 timeframes; the emerging importance of core noise and its relevance to the SFW Reduced-Noise-Aircraft Technical Challenge; the current research activities in the core-noise area, with some additional details given about the development of a high-fidelity combustion-noise prediction capability; the need for a core-noise diagnostic capability to generate benchmark data for validation of both high-fidelity work and improved models, as well as testing of future noise-reduction technologies; relevant existing core-noise tests using real engines and auxiliary power units; and examples of possible scenarios for a future diagnostic facility. The NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program has the principal objective of overcoming today's national challenges in air transportation. The SFW Reduced-Noise-Aircraft Technical Challenge aims to enable concepts and technologies to dramatically reduce the perceived aircraft noise outside of airport boundaries. This reduction of aircraft noise is critical for enabling the anticipated large increase in future air traffic. Noise generated in the jet engine core, by sources such as the compressor, combustor, and turbine, can be a significant contribution to the overall noise signature at low-power conditions, typical of approach flight. At high engine power during takeoff, jet and fan noise have traditionally dominated over core noise. However, current design trends and expected technological advances in engine-cycle design as well as noise-reduction methods are likely to reduce non-core noise even at engine-power points higher than approach. In addition, future low-emission combustor designs could increase the combustion-noise component. The trend towards high-power-density cores also means that the noise generated in the low-pressure turbine will likely increase. Consequently, the combined result from these emerging changes will be to elevate the overall importance of turbomachinery core noise, which will need to be addressed in order to meet future noise goals.

Hultgren, Lennart S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

Trends↗
NASA NTRS2022

An Interim Assessment of High-Power-Density-Core Noise Levels

The aeroacoustic-noise implications associated with the small-core gas-turbine development effort underway in the NASA HyTEC Project are discussed. Due to the expected design choices, there are risks that the airport community noise, associated with landing and takeoff of civilian-transport aircraft, could be increased or, at minimum, that further overall propulsion-noise reduction could become limited. It is argued here that the main culprit in these scenarios is noise originating from sources in the combustor. The classical combustor-noise prediction model is summarized and its possible extension to the planned parameter space is discussed. An acoustic-power scaling law is derived and utilized to give initial estimates for what can be expected by core-design choices. An ideal-cycle parametric turbofan model provides input for these estimates.

aeroacoustics, turbomachinery noise, small-core no↗
NASA NTRS2024

Impacts of an Early Morning Low Earth Orbit Observing Platform in A Future Global Observing Network Scenario

Significant changes to the global observing network are expected in the coming decades including the launch of a global ring of geostationary satellites and a reduction in the number of low earth orbit (LEO) platforms. It is anticipated that there may be a gap in the LEO coverage between the planned mid-morning and early afternoon orbits. Here, the utility of an early morning LEO orbit for numerical weather prediction is considered using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). A global observing network with two LEO platforms including microwave and hyperspectral infrared instruments and three geostationary hyperspectral infrared platforms is considered for a future baseline scenario. Two instruments, a microwave radiometer modeled on the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and a hyperspectral infrared radiometer modeled on the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), are tested both individually and in conjunction on a new early morning orbit in addition to the future baseline scenario. The microwave instrument is found to have beneficial impacts for up to 4–7 days in the medium range forecast period with beneficial impacts for the infrared instrument for up to 3–5 days. Short-range forecast impacts estimated with Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impacts (FSOI) over the conterminous United States for the early morning orbit are somewhat weaker than for the same instruments in the early afternoon orbit due to the orbital passage being coincident with rawinsondes while the afternoon orbit is coincident with the minima of both rawinsondes and aircraft.

Nikki C Prive↗
NASA NTRS2011

Benefit Assessment of the Precision Departure Release Capability Concept

A Precision Departure Release Capability concept is being evaluated by both the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Federal Aviation Administration as part of a larger goal of improving throughput, efficiency and capacity in integrated departure, arrival and surface operations. The concept is believed to have the potential of increasing flight efficiency and throughput by avoiding missing assigned slots and minimizing speed increase or path stretch to recover the slot. The main thrust of the paper is determining the impact of early and late departures from the departure runway when an aircraft has a slot assigned either at a meter fix or at the arrival airport. Results reported in the paper are for two scenarios. The first scenario considers flights out of Dallas/Fort Worth destined for Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport in Atlanta flying through the Meridian meter-fix in the Memphis Center with miles-in-trail constraints. The second scenario considers flights destined to George Bush Intercontinental/Houston Airport with specified airport arrival rate constraint. Results show that delay reduction can be achieved by allowing reasonable speed changes in scheduling. It was determined that the traffic volume between Dallas/Fort Worth and Atlanta via the Meridian fix is low and the departures times are spread enough that large departure schedule uncertainty can be tolerated. Flights can depart early or late within 90 minutes without accruing much more delay due to miles-in-trail constraint at the Meridian fix. In the Houston scenario, 808 arrivals from 174 airports were considered. Results show that delay experienced by the 16 Dallas/Fort Worth departures is higher if initial schedules of the remaining 792 flights are kept unaltered while they are rescheduled. Analysis shows that the probability of getting the initially assigned slot back after perturbation and rescheduling decreases with increasing standard deviation of the departure delay distributions. Results show that most Houston arrivals can be expected to be on time based on the assumed zero-mean Normal departure delay distributions achievable by Precision Departure Release Capability. In the current system, airport-departure delay, which is the sum of gate-departure delay and taxi-out delay, is observed at the airports. This delay acts as a bias, which can be reduced by Precision Departure Release Capability.

Palopo, Kee↗
NASA NTRS2004

Rapid Structured Volume Grid Smoothing and Adaption Technique

A rapid, structured volume grid smoothing and adaption technique, based on signal processing methods, was developed and applied to the Shuttle Orbiter at hypervelocity flight conditions in support of the Columbia Accident Investigation. Because of the fast pace of the investigation, computational aerothermodynamicists, applying hypersonic viscous flow solving computational fluid dynamic (CFD) codes, refined and enhanced a grid for an undamaged baseline vehicle to assess a variety of damage scenarios. Of the many methods available to modify a structured grid, most are time-consuming and require significant user interaction. By casting the grid data into different coordinate systems, specifically two computational coordinates with arclength as the third coordinate, signal processing methods are used for filtering the data [Taubin, CG v/29 1995]. Using a reverse transformation, the processed data are used to smooth the Cartesian coordinates of the structured grids. By coupling the signal processing method with existing grid operations within the Volume Grid Manipulator tool, problems related to grid smoothing are solved efficiently and with minimal user interaction. Examples of these smoothing operations are illustrated for reduction in grid stretching and volume grid adaptation. In each of these examples, other techniques existed at the time of the Columbia accident, but the incorporation of signal processing techniques reduced the time to perform the corrections by nearly 60%. This reduction in time to perform the corrections therefore enabled the assessment of approximately twice the number of damage scenarios than previously possible during the allocated investigation time.

Alter, Stephen J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Rapid Structured Volume Grid Smoothing and Adaption Technique

A rapid, structured volume grid smoothing and adaption technique, based on signal processing methods, was developed and applied to the Shuttle Orbiter at hypervelocity flight conditions in support of the Columbia Accident Investigation. Because of the fast pace of the investigation, computational aerothermodynamicists, applying hypersonic viscous flow solving computational fluid dynamic (CFD) codes, refined and enhanced a grid for an undamaged baseline vehicle to assess a variety of damage scenarios. Of the many methods available to modify a structured grid, most are time-consuming and require significant user interaction. By casting the grid data into different coordinate systems, specifically two computational coordinates with arclength as the third coordinate, signal processing methods are used for filtering the data [Taubin, CG v/29 1995]. Using a reverse transformation, the processed data are used to smooth the Cartesian coordinates of the structured grids. By coupling the signal processing method with existing grid operations within the Volume Grid Manipulator tool, problems related to grid smoothing are solved efficiently and with minimal user interaction. Examples of these smoothing operations are illustrated for reductions in grid stretching and volume grid adaptation. In each of these examples, other techniques existed at the time of the Columbia accident, but the incorporation of signal processing techniques reduced the time to perform the corrections by nearly 60%. This reduction in time to perform the corrections therefore enabled the assessment of approximately twice the number of damage scenarios than previously possible during the allocated investigation time.

Alter, Stephen J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Market Study

The Booz Allen Team explored market size and potential barriers to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) by focusing on three potential markets – Airport Shuttle, Air Taxi, and Air Ambulance. We found that the Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi markets are viable, with a significant total available market value in the U.S. of $500 billion, for a fully unconstrained scenario. In this unconstrained best-case scenario, passengers would have the ability to access and fly a UAM at any time, from any location to any destination, without being hindered by constraints such as weather, infrastructure, or traffic volume. Significant legal and regulatory, weather, certification, public perception, and infrastructure constraints exist, which reduce the market potential for these applications to only about 0.5% of the total available market, or $2.5 billion, in the near term. However, we determined that these constraints can be addressed through ongoing intra-governmental partnerships, government and industry collaboration, strong industry commitment, and existing legal and regulatory enablers. We found that the Air Ambulance market is not a viable market if served by electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles due to technology constraints but may potentially be viable if a hybrid VTOL aircraft are utilized. The barriers and challenges we characterized in this study can be stratified according to their applicability or potential mitigation through technology as well as market maturity (Figure 1). In the near term, high cost of service will be a key economic challenge. We found potential for significant reduction in service cost through increased vehicle and component efficiency, and automation in a more mature market scenario. Weather conditions also pose a challenge to the UAM market, though there is potential for mitigation of some of these impacts through technology such as sensors enabling operations in low visibility. However, even in a mature market with advanced technology, disruptions are still likely to occur due to weather events such as thunderstorms and strong winds. High density operations will likely stress the current Air Traffic Management (ATM) system in the near term, but technology and new initiatives such as the Air Traffic Management -eXploration project (ATM-X) will enable safe and efficient integration of UAM into the National Airspace System (NAS). Current battery technology creates a barrier in the near term, especially for the Air Ambulance market, as battery weight and extensive recharging times would be needed for these operations. Advancements in battery technology, as well as use of hybrid VTOLs, could significantly reduce this barrier in the longer term. As UAM emerges as a viable mode of transportation in the near term, adverse energy and environmental impacts, particularly noise, may impact community acceptance and potentially persist as the market matures into larger-scale operations. For non-technology related challenges, we found that infrastructure constraints will create a significant barrier to UAM in the near term but could be addressed in the longer term through development and expansion of vertiports. Competition from existing modes of transportation such as ride-sharing (e.g., Lyft, Uber) and ground taxi’s pose a key barrier to UAM in the short term, which will likely evolve into competition from other emerging technologies such as autonomous cars and electric trains in the longer term. Weather events will influence other components of the operation such as passenger comfort (e.g., extreme temperatures, turbulence) and infrastructure (e.g., winter weather causing cracks and degradation in vertiports). There is also potential for these impacts to be heightened in the longer term from the increased frequency of adverse weather such as thunderstorms due to changing climatic conditions. We also found that the public has strong concerns about safety as a passenger in a piloted UAM, including “lasing” of pilots, unruly passengers, and sabotage. They would prefer that all passengers pass through a security screening process before boarding a vehicle. They would also prefer to use UAM for longer regional trips, such as flying from Washington, DC to Baltimore, MD or San Diego, CA to Los Angeles, CA. A longer term automated UAM vehicle market will face challenges due to public apprehension about automation and unmanned operations, and a preference to fly with passengers they know in an autonomous (unmanned) operational scenario.

Rohit Goyal↗
NASA NTRS1981

Airport noise impact reduction through operations

The airport-noise levels and annoyance model (ALAMO) developed at NASA Langley Research Center is comprised of a system of computer programs which is capable of quantifying airport community noise impact in terms of noise level, population distribution, and human subjective response to noise. The ALAMO can be used to compare the noise impact of an airport's current operating scenario with the noise impact which would result from some proposed change in airport operations. The relative effectiveness of number of noise-impact reduction alternatives is assessed for a major midwest airport. Significant reductions in noise impact are predicted for certain noise abatement strategies while others are shown to result in relatively little noise relief.

Deloach, R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

Callahan, John R.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Aera-Mip: Emission Pathways, Remaining Budgets, and Carbon Cycle Dynamics Compatible With 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming Stabilization

While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 °C level of global warming, the climate modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at the same prescribed global warming levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based on comprehensive ESMs of the carbon emission pathways and budgets needed to meet such agreed warming levels and of the associated climate impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with ESMs to provide such simulations in which all models converge at 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming levels by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven simulations provide a wide range of emission pathways and resulting atmospheric CO 2 projections for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing in the traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios with prescribed greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting the 1.5 °C warming level requires a 40 % (full model range: 7 % to 76 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -forcing-equivalent (CO 2 -fe) emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98 % (57 % to 127 %) reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at 1.0 (−1.7 to 2.9) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5 °C global warming level is reached. Meeting the 2.0 °C warming level requires a 47 % (8 % to 92 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -fe emissions until 2050 and a stabilization at 1.7 (−1.5 to 2.7) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward. The on-average positive emissions under stabilized global temperatures are the result of a decreasing transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 -fe emissions over time under stabilized global warming. This evolution is consistent with a slightly negative zero emissions commitment – initially assumed to be zero – and leads to an increase in the post-2025 CO 2 -fe emission budget by a factor of 2.2 (−0.8 to 6.9) by 2150 for the 1.5 °C warming level and a factor of 1.4 (0.9 to 2.4) for the 2.0 °C warming level compared to its first estimate in 2025. The median CO 2 -only carbon budget by 2150, relative to 2020, is 800 GtCO 2 for the 1.5 °C warming level and 2250 GtCO 2 for the 2.0 °C warming level. These median values exceed the median IPCC AR6 estimates by 60 % for the 1.5 °C warming level and 67 % for 2.0 °C. Some of the differences may be explained by the choice of the mitigation scenario for non-CO 2 radiative agents. Our simulations highlight shifts in carbon uptake dynamics under stabilized temperature, such as a cessation of the carbon sinks in the North Atlantic and in tropical forests. On the other hand, the Southern Ocean remains a carbon sink centuries after temperatures stabilize. Overall, this new type of warming-level-based emission-driven simulation offers a more coherent assessment across climate models and opens up a wide range of possibilities for studying both the carbon cycle and climate impacts, such as extreme events, under climate stabilization.

Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach↗
NASA NTRS1987

Numerical arc segmentation algorithm for a radio conference-NASARC (version 2.0) technical manual

The information contained in the NASARC (Version 2.0) Technical Manual (NASA TM-100160) and NASARC (Version 2.0) User's Manual (NASA TM-100161) relates to the state of NASARC software development through October 16, 1987. The Technical Manual describes the Numerical Arc Segmentation Algorithm for a Radio Conference (NASARC) concept and the algorithms used to implement the concept. The User's Manual provides information on computer system considerations, installation instructions, description of input files, and program operating instructions. Significant revisions have been incorporated in the Version 2.0 software. These revisions have enhanced the modeling capabilities of the NASARC procedure while greatly reducing the computer run time and memory requirements. Array dimensions within the software have been structured to fit within the currently available 6-megabyte memory capacity of the International Frequency Registration Board (IFRB) computer facility. A piecewise approach to predetermined arc generation in NASARC (Version 2.0) allows worldwide scenarios to be accommodated within these memory constraints while at the same time effecting an overall reduction in computer run time.

Whyte, Wayne A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Role of cross-field current instability in substorm onsets and intensifications

A cross field current instability is investigated as a potential mechanism for current reduction/disruption during substorm onsets and intensifications. Linear stability analysis shows that, for sufficiently strong current density, the instability can occur in the plasma sheet with a growth time comparable to the substorm onset time and excite waves with a significant electromagnetic component. Nonlinear analysis shows that the wave growth reaches the nonlinear stage in less than one ion gyroperiod and can reduce the cross tail current by approximately 15 to 28 of its initial value at saturation. The resulting anomalous resistivity is 11 to 12 orders of magnitude above the classical value. For a typical current reduction, the plasma in the disruption region is subjected to an earthward force. The substorm development scenario constructed based on this instability can readily account for a large number of substorm features.

Lui, Anthony T. Y.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Logistics Needs for Potential Deep Space Mission Scenarios Post Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission

The Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) is currently being explored as the next step towards deep space human exploration, with the ultimate goal of reaching Mars. NASA is currently investigating a number of potential human exploration missions, which will progressively increase the distance and duration that humans spend away from Earth. Missions include extended human exploration in cis-lunar space which, as conceived, would involve durations of around 60 days, and human missions to Mars, which are anticipated to be as long as 1000 days. The amount of logistics required to keep the crew alive and healthy for these missions is significant. It is therefore important that the design and planning for these missions include accurate estimates of logistics requirements. This paper provides a description of a process and calculations used to estimate mass and volume requirements for crew logistics, including consumables, such as food, personal items, gasses, and liquids. Determination of logistics requirements is based on crew size, mission duration, and the degree of closure of the environmental control life support system (ECLSS). Details are provided on the consumption rates for different types of logistics and how those rates were established. Results for potential mission scenarios are presented, including a breakdown of mass and volume drivers. Opportunities for mass and volume reduction are identified, along with potential threats that could possibly increase requirements.

Lopez, Pedro, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2017

How Can CO2 Help Agriculture in the Face of Climate Change?

Humans are increasing the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air through CO2 emissions. This is changing the climate, making life harder for many plants in areas that suffer from heat and drought. However, plants need CO2 to grow, and more CO2 can make them grow better. So will plants overall benefit from increased CO2 level or suffer from it? We wanted to test if the positive effect would offset the negative ones. To do so, we used scientific models to calculate future crop production and water use of four important crops all over the world under different scenarios of CO2 emissions and climate change. Our calculations show that although there will be large reductions in crop yield due to climate change over the next century, some crops will still be able to grow well. This is also because crops can grow with less water when CO2 levels are raised.

Delphine, Deryng↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessing the Impact of Observations in a Multi-Year Reanalysis (MERRA-2)

Operational and quasi-operational weather prediction centers have been routinely assessing the contribution from various observing systems to reducing errors in short-range forecasts for a number of years now. The original technique, Forecast Sensitivity-based Observation Impact (FSOI), involves definition of a forecast error measure and evaluation of sensitivities with respect to changes in the observations that require adjoint operators of both the underlying tangent linear model and corresponding analysis technique. The present work applies FSOI to reanalysis and aims at providing an expanded view of the contribution of various observing systems over nearly 40 years of assimilation. Specifically, this study uses MERRA-2 given that its supporting software includes all ingredients necessary to calculate FSOI. Part of this work shows how the quality of forecasts improves over the course of the reanalysis, and examines forecast sensitivities relevant to FSOI. The assessment here finds, for example, that: conventional observations are a major player in reducing forecast error throughout the 40 years of reanalysis, even when their volume reduces from 45\% in the earlier periods to about 5% in the modern era; satellite radiances, especially microwave instruments are major contributors to error reduction from the early single platform TIROS-N days to the current multi-platform scenario, though their fractional contribution reduces slightly from the early 2000's onward after the increased availability of wind observation from aircraft and atmospheric motion vectors, and the introduction of GPSRO; infrared instruments play a secondary role to microwave but are significant still, with the peculiar result of fractional impacts contribution from modern hyperspectral instruments being roughly similar to those from early infrared instruments. The dependence of results on the chosen error measure is emphasized throughout.

Todling, Ricardo↗