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DOE OSTI2024

Resolved resonance region evaluations of n+ 206,207,208 Pb for fast spectrum applications

Resolved resonance region evaluations of the major isotopes of natural lead, 206 Pb, 207 Pb, 208 Pb, have been per formed to support the development of Generation IV reactors. In this study, validation of nuclear data for lead fast reactors was performed with simulations of shielding benchmarks, integral critical benchmarks, and quasi-differential scattering measurements. Sensitivity analyses of these systems showed that elastic scattering reactions above 100 keV were the dominant reactions driving system performance. The resolved resonance regions (RRRs) of the lead isotopes extend past 100 keV, making the RRR an ideal starting point to evaluate lead cross sections. Since the R-matrix requires knowledge of bound, distant, and observed resonances, it was necessary to evaluate from 10 -5 eV up to the respective limit of the RRR. The 208 Pb RRR evaluation was extended to 1.5 MeV in order to obtain resonance parameters used to calculate new elastic scattering angular distributions up to 1.5 MeV. Resonance parameter uncertainties and covariance were generated using the R-matrix code SAMMY. The new RRR parameters show a direct improvement to the scattering kernel below 1.5 MeV which in turn greatly improves fast critical experiments over ENDF/B-VIII.0.

206Pb↗

DOE OSTI2022

Portable diagnostic package for Thomson scattering and optical emission spectroscopy on Princeton field-reversed configuration 2 (PFRC 2)

An Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy funded diagnostic system has been deployed to the Princeton field-reversed configuration 2 (PFRC-2) device, located at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. The Portable Diagnostic Package (PDP), designed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, allows for the measurement of Thomson Scattering (TS) for electron density and temperature and Optical Emission Spectroscopy (OES) for ion temperature, impurity density, and ion velocity. A tunable spectrometer on the PDP with three gratings provides the flexibility to measure low (1 eV) and high (1000 eV) electron temperature ranges from TS. Additionally, using a second spectrometer, the OES diagnostic can survey light emission from various ion excitation levels for wide wavelength ranges. The electron density (<2 × 10 19 m –3 ) of plasmas generated in PFRC-2 has been below the PDP TS discrimination threshold, which has made TS signal detection challenging against a high-background of laser stray light. The laser stray light was iteratively reduced by making modifications to the entrance and exit geometry on PFRC-2. Rayleigh scattering experiments on PFRC have yielded the TS discrimination sensitivity to be >1 × 10 20 m –3 for the PDP. A recently implemented narrow-band notch spectral filter that masks the second harmonic 532 nm Nd:YAG laser wavelength has increased the system’s TS light discrimination sensitivity 65 times compared to the instance when the notch filter was not implemented. The hardware implementation including design changes to the flight tubes and Brewster windows will be discussed, along with results from Rayleigh and rotational Raman scattering sensitivity analyses, which were used to establish a quantitative figure of merit on the system performance. Further, the Raman scattering calibration with the notch filter has improved the PDP electron density threshold to 1 ± 0.5 × 10 18 m –3 .

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin

Abstract. Mountain hydrology is controlled by interacting processes extending from the atmosphere through the bedrock. Integrated process models (IPMs), one of the main tools needed to interpret observations and refine conceptual models of the mountainous water cycle, require meteorological forcing that simulates the atmospheric process to predict hydroclimate then subsequently impacts surface–subsurface hydrology. Complex terrain and extreme spatial heterogeneity in mountainous environments drive uncertainty in several key considerations in IPM configurations and require further quantification and sensitivity analyses. Here, we present an IPM using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model which forces an integrated hydrologic model, ParFlow-CLM, implemented over a domain centered over the East River watershed (ERW), located in the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB). The ERW is a heavily instrumented 300 km2 region in the headwaters of the UCRB near Crested Butte, CO, with a growing atmosphere-through-bedrock observation network. Through a series of experiments in the water year 2019 (WY19), we use four meteorological forcings derived from commonly used reanalysis datasets, three subgrid-scale physics scheme configurations in WRF, and two terrain shading options within WRF to test the relative importance of these experimental design choices for key hydrometeorological metrics including precipitation and snowpack, as well as evapotranspiration, groundwater storage, and discharge simulated by the ParFlow-CLM. Our hypothesis is that uncertainty from synoptic-scale forcings produces a much larger spread in surface–subsurface hydrologic fields than subgrid-scale physics scheme choice. Results reveal that the WRF subgrid-scale physics configuration leads to larger spatiotemporal variance in simulated hydrometeorological conditions, whereas variance across meteorological forcing with common subgrid-scale physics configurations is more spatiotemporally constrained. Despite reasonably simulating precipitation, a delay in simulated discharge peak is due to a systematic cold bias across WRF simulations, suggesting the need for bias correction. Discharge shows greater variance in response to the WRF simulations across subgrid-scale physics schemes (26 %) rather than meteorological forcing (6 %). The topographic radiation option has minor effects on the watershed-average hydrometeorological processes but adds profound spatial heterogeneity to local energy budgets (±30 W m−2 in shortwave radiation and 1 K air temperature differences in late summer). This is the first presentation of sensitivity analyses that provide support to help guide the scientific community to develop observational constraints on atmosphere-through-bedrock processes and their interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling gas release from a Bingham plastic slurry and deconvoluting measured data

Physics-based models for predicting the off-gassing characteristics of agitated slurries are presented. This approach decomposes the system into two separate but coupled slurry and headspace models. The physics driving bubble transport through the slurry and gas mixing within the headspace are discussed. An analytical expression for predicting the time evolution of the headspace concentration using first principles theory is also presented. Predictions from the numerical models, as well as expectations from the analytical solution, both agree with measured off gassing data for two different experimental operating conditions. After benchmarking the numerical model predictions against experimental data, the model was used to make predictions for gas release from a full-scale vessel and to perform sensitivity analyses to examine the sensitivity of gas release to parameters such as yield stress, consistency index, slurry density, bubble size, bubble concentration, and impeller speed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1992

Aerobrake concepts for NTP systems study

Design concepts are described for landing large spacecraft masses on the Mars surface in support of manned missions with interplanetary transportation using Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP). Included are the mission and systems analyses, trade studies and sensitivity analyses, design analyses, technology assessment, and derived requirements to support this concept. The mission phases include the Mars de-orbit, entry, terminal descent, and terminal touchdown. The study focuses primarily on Mars surface delivery from orbit after Mars orbit insertion using an NTP. The requirements associated with delivery of logistical supplies, habitats, and other equipment on minimum energy Earth to Mars transfers are also addressed in a preliminary fashion.

Cruz, Manuel I.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytical Voltage Sensitivity Analysis for Unbalanced Power Distribution System

Large scale integration of distributed energy resources and electric vehicles in a transactive energy environment present new challenges in terms of voltage stability and fluctuations in a power distribution system. The impact of different level of DER/EV penetration on the voltages across the network is typically quantified through voltage sensitivity analyses. Existing methods of voltage sensitivity analysis are computationally expensive and prior efforts to develop analytical approximation lacks generality and have not been effectively validated. The objective of this work is to provide a new analytical method of voltage sensitivity analysis that has low computational cost and also allows for stochastic analysis of voltage change. This paper first derives an analytical approximation of change in voltage at a particular bus due to change in power consumption at other bus in a radial three phase unbalanced power distribution system. Then, the proposed method is shown to be valid for different load configurations, which demonstrates its generality. The results from our analytical approach is validated via classical load flow simulation of the test system based on IEEE 37 bus network. The proposed method is shown to have good accuracy, and computation complexity is of order O(1), compared to O(n3) in classical sensitivity analysis approaches.

Munikoti, Sai↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of Decay Heat Sensitivity Analysis Capability in SCALE/ORIGEN

In this work, a decay heat sensitivity analysis capability was developed and implemented in the ORIGEN code of the SCALE nuclear modeling and simulation suite. This capability introduces improved numerical integration schemes, which overcome the challenges associated with accurately modeling the behavior of adjoint nuclide amounts during coarse time steps for both nuclide amount and decay heat sensitivity calculations. This capability significantly improves the accuracy of calculations without compromising computational efficiency compared to the existing method. Extensive verification was conducted for various benchmark problems, including a 238 Pu decay and an irradiation problem involving 135 Xe, evaluated with both coarse and fine time grids. The results show excellent agreement with reference direct perturbation solutions, reaffirming the computational accuracy of the newly proposed numerical integration methods. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses were performed for fission product inventories ( 147 Sm, 150 Sm, 155 Gd) in pressurized water reactor UO 2 and MOX fuel assemblies. These analyses demonstrated that the ORIGEN sensitivity analysis capability can capture detailed sensitivity coefficients and underlying physics in real applications. Additionally, a decay heat sensitivity analysis for high-assay low-enriched uranium fuel, including various initial 235 U enrichment and burnup points, highlights the extended capabilities of SCALE/ORIGEN in comprehensively assessing the factors influencing total decay heat. These advancements in ORIGEN offer valuable insights for reactor analysis, fuel design, and safety assessments, especially in the context of advanced nuclear fuel development and design changes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2006

Technology Assessment in Support of the Presidential Vision for Space Exploration

This paper discusses the process and results of technology assessment in support of the United States Vision for Space Exploration of the Moon, Mars and Beyond. The paper begins by reviewing the Presidential Vision: a major endeavor in building systems of systems. It discusses why we wish to return to the Moon, and the exploration architecture for getting there safely, sustaining a presence, and safely returning. Next, a methodology for optimal technology investment is proposed with discussion of inputs including a capability hierarchy, mission importance weightings, available resource profiles as a function of time, likelihoods of development success, and an objective function. A temporal optimization formulation is offered, and the investment recommendations presented along with sensitivity analyses. Key questions addressed are sensitivity of budget allocations to cost uncertainties, reduction in available budget levels, and shifting funding within constraints imposed by mission timeline.

technology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity Analysis of a Polyphase Wireless Power Transfer System under Off-Nominal Conditions

Misaligned and/or variable coil airgaps cause coupling coefficient variation in wireless power transfer (WPT) systems, resulting in a decrease in the system’s transmitted power and efficiency. This paper presents sensitivity analyses of a three-phase, Y-Y connected, series-tuned WPT system in the frequency domain in terms of several different electric vehicle wireless charging off-nominal conditions (misalignments in Δ x and Δ y directions, change of airgap Δ z , and the roll Δψ, pitch Δθ, and yaw ΔΦ angles) as specified in Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) J2954 Standard. Coil inductance matrices were obtained by measuring the self- and mutual inductances of the primary and secondary coil phase windings at variable airgap classes (from 5 cm to 30 cm) for five different charging positions as identified in SAE J2954. These 6 × 6 inductance matrices were used in sensitivity and Plexim/PLECS simulation analyses. The sensitivity of the WPT system was analyzed analytically using the input impedance and phase angle, voltage gain, current gain, quality factor, and coupling coefficient parameters of the series-tuned WPT system. The results were confirmed experimentally on a 50 kW WPT system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

(U) Calculating First-Order Sensitivities to Material Density and Composition in Fixed-Source Problems Using the MCNP6 Perturbation Capability

The Taylor series (differential operator) perturbation method, as implemented in the PERT capability in MCNP6 (Ref. 1), can be used for first-order sensitivity analyses in fixed-source problems.2 Sensitivities of a response with respect to material and nuclide densities can be used for efficient first-order uncertainty quantification. This report discusses how to compute sensitivities of material densities and compositions in order to propagate uncertainties using the standard uncertainty propagation formula.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1987

Application of design sensitivity analysis for greater improvement on machine structural dynamics

Methodologies are presented for greatly improving machine structural dynamics by using design sensitivity analyses and evaluative parameters. First, design sensitivity coefficients and evaluative parameters of structural dynamics are described. Next, the relations between the design sensitivity coefficients and the evaluative parameters are clarified. Then, design improvement procedures of structural dynamics are proposed for the following three cases: (1) addition of elastic structural members, (2) addition of mass elements, and (3) substantial charges of joint design variables. Cases (1) and (2) correspond to the changes of the initial framework or configuration, and (3) corresponds to the alteration of poor initial design variables. Finally, numerical examples are given for demonstrating the availability of the methods proposed.

Yoshimura, Masataka↗

NASA NTRS1988

Results of an integrated structure-control law design sensitivity analysis

Next generation air and space vehicle designs are driven by increased performance requirements, demanding a high level of design integration between traditionally separate design disciplines. Interdisciplinary analysis capabilities have been developed, for aeroservoelastic aircraft and large flexible spacecraft control for instance, but the requisite integrated design methods are only beginning to be developed. One integrated design method which has received attention is based on hierarchal problem decompositions, optimization, and design sensitivity analyses. This paper highlights a design sensitivity analysis method for Linear Quadratic Cost, Gaussian (LQG) optimal control laws, which predicts change in the optimal control law due to changes in fixed problem parameters using analytical sensitivity equations. Numerical results of a design sensitivity analysis for a realistic aeroservoelastic aircraft example are presented. In this example, the sensitivity of the optimally controlled aircraft's response to various problem formulation and physical aircraft parameters is determined. These results are used to predict the aircraft's new optimally controlled response if the parameter was to have some other nominal value during the control law design process. The sensitivity results are validated by recomputing the optimal control law for discrete variations in parameters, computing the new actual aircraft response, and comparing with the predicted response. These results show an improvement in sensitivity accuracy for integrated design purposes over methods which do not include changess in the optimal control law. Use of the analytical LQG sensitivity expressions is also shown to be more efficient that finite difference methods for the computation of the equivalent sensitivity information.

Gilbert, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS1989

An analytical sensitivity method for use in integrated aeroservoelastic aircraft design

Interdisciplinary analysis capabilities have been developed for aeroservoelastic aircraft and large flexible spacecraft, but the requisite integrated design methods are only beginning to be developed. One integrated design method which has received attention is based on hierarchal problem decompositions, optimization, and design sensitivity analyses. This paper highlights a design sensitivity analysis method for Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) optimal control laws, enabling the use of LQG techniques in the hierarchal design methodology. The LQG sensitivity analysis method calculates the change in the optimal control law and resulting controlled system responses due to changes in fixed design integration parameters using analytical sensitivity equations. Numerical results of a LQG design sensitivity analysis for a realistic aeroservoelastic aircraft example are presented. In this example, the sensitivity of the optimal control law and aircraft response for various parameters such as wing bending natural frequency is determined. The sensitivity results computed from the analytical expressions are used to estimate changes in response resulting from changes in the parameters. Comparisons of the estimates with exact calculated responses show they are reasonably accurate for + or - 15 percent changes in the parameters. Evaluation of the analytical expressions is computationally faster than equivalent finite difference calculations.

Gilbert, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS1989

An analytical sensitivity method for use in integrated aeroservoelastic aircraft design

Interdisciplinary analysis capabilities have been developed for aeroservoelastic aircraft and large flexible spacecraft, but the requisite integrated design methods are only beginning to be developed. One integrated design method which has received attention is based on hierarchal problem decompositions, optimization, and design sensitivity analyses. This paper highlights a design sensitivity analysis method for Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) optimal control laws, enabling the use of LQG techniques in the hierarchal design methodology. The LQG sensitivity analysis method calculates the change in the optimal control law and resulting controlled system responses due to changes in fixed design integration parameters using analytical sensitivity equations. Numerical results of an LQG design sensitivity analysis for a realistic aeroservoelastic aircraft example are presented. In this example, the sensitivity of the optimal control law and aircraft response for various parameters such as wing bending natural frequency is determined. The sensitivity results computed from the analytical expressions are used to estimate changes in response resulting from changes in the parameters. Comparisons of the estimates with exact calculated responses show they are reasonably accurate for + or - 15 percent changes in the parameters. Evaluation of the analytical expressions is computationally faster than equivalent finite difference calculations.

Gilbert, Michael G.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identifying high-impact and high-uncertainty parameters in MiniFuel model predictions

The MiniFuel irradiation platform at Oak Ridge National Laboratory's High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a flexible, high-throughput separate effects test capability. Finite element thermal models are relied upon to design MiniFuel experiments and to achieve experimental objectives. Recent reports show good agreement in the model prediction of target fuel temperatures, but as the capability of the experiments is extended to higher temperatures, the uncertainty in the model predictions must be quantified. To that end, high-impact, high-uncertainty parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to the model are identified. The uncertainty quantification was accomplished through a series of screening and sensitivity analyses. The first analysis utilizes the method of Morris to perform a computationally efficient preliminary screening that considers uncertainty in a large number of the model inputs. The most important parameters identified in the Morris screening study were then considered in a Sobol sensitivity analysis that more robustly ranks and quantifies the uncertainty associated with each parameter. From these analyses, it was determined that thermal contact conductance between components is the parameter that contributes the highest uncertainty. The estimated uncertainty of the MiniFuel model fuel temperature predictions is ±80 °C in the removable beryllium and ±40 °C in the vertical experiment facilities. In conclusion, the framework established by the series of sensitivity analyses presented herein could easily be adapted to fit the needs of accelerated fuel qualification processes.

Fuel, Irradiation↗

NASA NTRS1990

A dynamic growth model of vegetative soya bean plants: model structure and behaviour under varying root temperature and nitrogen concentration

A differential equation model of vegetative growth of the soya bean plant (Glycine max (L.) Merrill cv. Ransom') was developed to account for plant growth in a phytotron system under variation of root temperature and nitrogen concentration in nutrient solution. The model was tested by comparing model outputs with data from four different experiments. Model predictions agreed fairly well with measured plant performance over a wide range of root temperatures and over a range of nitrogen concentrations in nutrient solution between 0.5 and 10.0 mmol NO3- in the phytotron environment. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to changes in parameters relating to carbohydrate concentration in the plant and nitrogen uptake rate.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-driven Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Storage Tanks in Integrated Energy Systems

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification are essential steps for enhancing the accuracy of computational models by identifying and mitigating uncertainties. This study focuses on these steps for the Thermal Energy Delivery System at Idaho National Laboratory, specifically targeting the thermocline tank. Using a Modelica/Dymola simulation model, the study perturbed various design parameters and boundary conditions, including shape factor, porosity, outlet temperature, inlet mass flow rate, and system pressure, to predict and quantify uncertainty in the tank’s ax- ial temperature. A dataset of over 1,000 simulations was generated, and surrogate models were developed using the pyMAISE (Michigan Artificial Intelligence Standard Environment) library, which is an Automatic Machine Learning library for nuclear engineering applications. The optimal model, a feedforward neural network with two hidden layers, achieved an R2 score above 0.99 and a mean absolute error below 1 Kelvin. Sensitivity analyses using Sobol indices and Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing methods on this surrogate model revealed that the inlet mass flow rate at initial timestamps and porosity significantly impacts predicted temperatures across all sensors and time steps.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Global Techno-Economic Performance of Bifacial and Tracking Photovoltaic Systems

Although most of the current photovoltaic (PV) system installations use monofacial modules with fixed-tilt mounting structures, bifacial modules, trackers, and the combination of them are also getting more attention as potential candidates to further reduce the PV levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). This work is then the first to present a worldwide analysis on the yield potential and cost-effectiveness of PV farms composed of monofacial fixed-tilt and single/dual (1T/2T) tracker installations, as well as their bifacial counterparts. Our approach starts by estimating the irradiance reaching the front and rear surface of the modules for the different system designs (validated based on data from real PV systems and results from the literature) to estimate their energy production (row-row shading is neglected). Subsequently, the overall system cost during their 25-year lifetime is factored in, and LCOE is obtained. The results reveal that bifacial-1T installations increase energy yield by 35% and reach the lowest LCOE for the majority of the world (93.1% of the land area). Although dual axis trackers achieve the highest energy generation — especially for bifacial modules — their cost is still too high, and are therefore not as cost-effective. Sensitivity analyses based on the Monte Carlo and region sensitivity approach are performed to analyze the impact of input assumptions on the calculated LCOE. These reveal that our conclusions are robust in general but exact configuration to choose depends on specific site conditions. This investigation is not only of interest to the scientific community, but also can be used as a guide for PV installation companies and investors to determine the most suitable technology for a particular location.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗