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Results for “sensitivity estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

On treatments of fetch and stability sensitivity in large-area estimates of sensible heat flux over sea ice

Bulk transfer coefficients estimated as a function of atmospheric stability and sea-ice lead width are combined with Arctic meteorological observations and ice thickness data to calculate the sensitivity of turbulent flux estimates to changes in lead width, wind speed, air temperature, and ice thickness for a high-concentration ice pack. These results are considered in terms of bulk transfer parameterizations that use a fixed transfer coefficient r that address atmospheric stability only. On the basis of the fetch-sensitive parameterizations considered here, differences in lead width for widths up to about 200 m can exert a substantial influence on sensible heat transfer coefficients and heat flux from leads under typical Arctic conditions. Fluxes from an open water lead decrease by 34% if fetch increases from 10 m to 100 m. This effect is greatest for open water leads, decreases considerably as leads refreeze, and is negligible for ice thicker than about 0.3 m. If open or newly refrozen leads make up 2% of the ice cover, than an increase in mean fetch from 10 m to 100 m yields a decrease of about 2 W/sq m in areally averaged flux from the ice pack. Calculations using observed and theoretical lead width distributions suggest that parameterizing lead widths in a sea ice model can be done effectively using a single, representative lead width rather than requiring a full distribution of widths. When coupled to the lowest atmospheric boundary layer using a bulk similarity theory model, this sensitivity of heat transfer to fetch results in substantially higher near-surface air temperatures over narrow leads, with equilibrium air temperatures decreasing by about 50% as fetch increases from 10 to 100 m.

Maslanik, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Motion-Contrast Sensitivity: Visibility of Motion Gradients of Various Spatial Frequencies

The purpose of our experiments was to estimate basic sensitivity to motion gradients and to evaluate the evidence for second-order integration and differentiation of motion signals. We measured sensitivity to spatially sinusoidal contrast modulation between two oppositely moving bandpass-filtered noise images. The motion-contrast sensitivity function, defined as the inverse of threshold modulation amplitude as a function of modulation spatial frequency, was bandpass in shape with declines at both highest and lowest frequencies. The functions for three noise spatial frequencies had approximately the same shape when modulation frequency was expressed as a fraction of noise frequency. We compared the data with a model in which linear motion filters, whose outputs are squared or rectified, are followed by a second stage of excitatory or inhibitory pooling. The data are consistent with a model in which (1) all excitatory pooling occurs at the linear stage and (2) the second stage contains a large inhibitory pooling area, with a radius approximately eight times that of the linear receptive field.

Watson, Andrew B.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Robust Modal Filtering and Control of the X-56A Model with Simulated Fiber Optic Sensor Failures

The X-56A aircraft is a remotely-piloted aircraft with flutter modes intentionally designed into the flight envelope. The X-56A program must demonstrate flight control while suppressing all unstable modes. A previous X-56A model study demonstrated a distributed-sensing-based active shape and active flutter suppression controller. The controller relies on an estimator which is sensitive to bias. This estimator is improved herein, and a real-time robust estimator is derived and demonstrated on 1530 fiber optic sensors. It is shown in simulation that the estimator can simultaneously reject 230 worst-case fiber optic sensor failures automatically. These sensor failures include locations with high leverage (or importance). To reduce the impact of leverage outliers, concentration based on a Mahalanobis trim criterion is introduced. A redescending M-estimator with Tukey bisquare weights is used to improve location and dispersion estimates within each concentration step in the presence of asymmetry (or leverage). A dynamic simulation is used to compare the concentrated robust estimator to a state-of-the-art real-time robust multivariate estimator. The estimators support a previously-derived mu-optimal shape controller. It is found that during the failure scenario, the concentrated modal estimator keeps the system stable.

Modal Filtering↗
NASA NTRS2016

Robust Modal Filtering and Control of the X-56A Model with Simulated Fiber Optic Sensor Failures

The X-56A aircraft is a remotely-piloted aircraft with flutter modes intentionally designed into the flight envelope. The X-56A program must demonstrate flight control while suppressing all unstable modes. A previous X-56A model study demonstrated a distributed-sensing-based active shape and active flutter suppression controller. The controller relies on an estimator which is sensitive to bias. This estimator is improved herein, and a real-time robust estimator is derived and demonstrated on 1530 fiber optic sensors. It is shown in simulation that the estimator can simultaneously reject 230 worst-case fiber optic sensor failures automatically. These sensor failures include locations with high leverage (or importance). To reduce the impact of leverage outliers, concentration based on a Mahalanobis trim criterion is introduced. A redescending M-estimator with Tukey bisquare weights is used to improve location and dispersion estimates within each concentration step in the presence of asymmetry (or leverage). A dynamic simulation is used to compare the concentrated robust estimator to a state-of-the-art real-time robust multivariate estimator. The estimators support a previously-derived mu-optimal shape controller. It is found that during the failure scenario, the concentrated modal estimator keeps the system stable.

Modal Filtering↗
NASA NTRS2020

Observational Constraints on the Effective Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Period

The observed warming in the atmosphere and ocean can be used to estimate the climate sensitivity linked to present-day feedbacks, which is referred to as the effective climate sensitivity (Shist). However, such an estimate is affected by uncertainty in the radiative forcing, particularly aerosols, over the historical period. Here, we make use of detection and attribution techniques to derive the surface air temperature and ocean warming that can be attributed directly to greenhouse gas increases. These serve as inputs to a simple energy budget to infer the likelihood of Shist in response to observed greenhouse gases increases over two time periods (1862–2012 and 1955–2012). The benefit of using greenhouse gas attributable quantities is that they are not subject to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing (other than uncertainty in the attribution to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing not captured by the multi-model aerosol response pattern). The resulting effective climate sensitivity estimate, Shist, ranges from 1.3 °Cto 3.1 °C(5%–95% range) over the full instrumental period (1862–2012) for our best estimate, and gets slightly wider when considering further uncertainties. This estimate increases to 1.7 °C–4.6 °C if using the shorter period (1955–2012).We also evaluate the climate model simulated surface air temperature and ocean heat content increase in response to greenhouse gas forcing over the same periods, and compare them with the observationally-constrained values.We find that that the ocean warming simulated in greenhouse gas only simulations in models considered here is consistent with that attributed to greenhouse gas increases from observations, while one model simulates more greenhouse gas-induced surface air warming than observed. However, other models with sensitivity outside our range show greenhouse gas warming that is consistent with that attributed in observations, emphasising that feedbacks during the historical period may differ from the feedbacks at CO2 doubling and from those at true equilibrium.

Tokarska, Katarzyna B↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Climate Simulations With E3SM‐MMF

Simulations of the recent historical period from 1950 to 2014 are conducted with E3SM‐MMF, which uses an embedded 2D cloud resolving model that runs efficiently on GPUs in place of traditional parameterizations for cloud and turbulence. Analysis of the climate and variability reveal several aspects where E3SM‐MMF produces smaller biases compared to E3SMv2, including better agreement with the observed evolution of global mean surface temperature, although the representation of ENSO is too weak and fast. Three idealized abrupt CO 2 experiments were also conducted to assess climate sensitivity and feedbacks. These yield three estimates of effective climate sensitivity (4.38, 5.21, and 6.06 K), with a corresponding spread in the shortwave cloud feedbacks. These estimates are on the higher end of sensitivity estimates from CMIP ensembles, and the spread indicates substantial state‐dependent feedbacks. These results demonstrate how multiscale modeling framework (MMF) models can be used for climate relevant experiments and projections by leveraging modern GPU enabled computational platforms. The unique qualities of E3SM‐MMF shown in previous literature are largely still present, but various instances of reduced biases suggest that MMF models have utility in improving future projections.

E3SM↗
NASA NTRS2018

Observational Constraint on Cloud Susceptibility Weakened by Aerosol Retrieval Limitations

Aerosol-cloud interactions remain a major uncertainty in climate research. Studies have indicated that model estimates of cloud susceptibility to aerosols frequently exceed satellite estimates, motivating model reformulations to increase agreement. Here we show that conventional ways of using satellite information to estimate susceptibility can serve as only a weak constraint on models because the estimation is sensitive to errors in the retrieval procedures. Using instrument simulators to investigate differences between model and satellite estimates of susceptibilities, we find that low aerosol loading conditions are not well characterized by satellites, but model clouds are sensitive to aerosol perturbations in these conditions. We quantify the observational requirements needed to constrain models, and find that the nighttime lidar measurements of aerosols provide a better characterization of ten- uous aerosols. We conclude that observational uncertainties and limitations need to be accounted for when assessing the role of aerosols in the climate system.

Ma, Po-Lun↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Indirect System Identification Technique for Stable Estimation of Continuous-Time Parameters of the Vestibulo-Ocular Reflex (VOR)

The vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) is a well-known dual mode bifurcating system that consists of slow and fast modes associated with nystagmus and saccade, respectively. Estimation of continuous-time parameters of nystagmus and saccade models are known to be sensitive to estimation methodology, noise and sampling rate. The stable and accurate estimation of these parameters are critical for accurate disease modelling, clinical diagnosis, robotic control strategies, mission planning for space exploration and pilot safety, etc. This paper presents a novel indirect system identification method for the estimation of continuous-time parameters of VOR employing standardised least-squares with dual sampling rates in a sparse structure. This approach permits the stable and simultaneous estimation of both nystagmus and saccade data. The efficacy of this approach is demonstrated via simulation of a continuous-time model of VOR with typical parameters found in clinical studies and in the presence of output additive noise.

Kukreja, Sunil L.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Sensitivity of surface temperature and atmospheric temperature to perturbations in the stratospheric concentration of ozone and nitrogen dioxide

A radiative-convective model is proposed for estimating the sensitivity of the atmospheric radiative heating rates and atmospheric and surface temperatures to perturbations in the concentration of O3 and NO2 in the stratosphere. Contribution to radiative energy transfer within the atmosphere from H2O, CO2, O3, and NO2 is considered. It is found that the net solar radiation absorbed by the earth-atmosphere system decreases with a reduction in O3; if the reduction of O3 is accompanied by an increase in NO2, there is a compensating effect due to solar absorption by NO2. The surface temperature and atmospheric temperature decrease with decreasing stratospheric O3. Another major conclusion is the strong sensitivity of surface temperature to the vertical distribution of O3 within the atmosphere. The results should be considered as reflecting the sensitivity of the proposed model rather than the sensitivity of the actual earth-atmosphere system.

Ramanathan, V.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Cloud Thickness from Diffusion of Lidar Pulses in Clouds

Measurements of the distribution of reflected light from a laser beam incident on an aqueous suspension of particles or "cloud" with known thickness and particle size distribution are reported. The distribution is referred to as the "cloud radiative Green's function", G. In the diffusion domain, G is sensitive to cloud thickness, allowing that important quantity to be retrieved. The goal of the laboratory simulation is to provide preliminary estimates of sensitivity of G to cloud thickness,for use in the optimal design of an offbeam Lidar instrument for remote sensing of cloud thickness (THOR, Thickness from Offbeam Returns). These clouds of polystyrene microspheres suspended in water are analogous to real clouds of water droplets suspended in air. The microsphere size distribution is roughly lognormal, from 0.5 microns to 25 microns, similar to real clouds. Density of suspended spheres is adjusted so mean-free-path of visible photons is about 10 cm, approximately 1000 times smaller than in real clouds. The light source is a ND:YAG laser at 530 nm. Detectors are flux and photon-counting Photomultiplier Tube (PMTS), with a glass probe for precise positioning. A Labview 5 VI controls positioning, and data acquisition, via an NI Motion Control board connected to a stepper motor driving an Edmund linear slider, and a 16-channel 16-bit NI-DAQ board. The stepper motor is accurate to 10 microns, and step size is selectable from the VI software. Far from the incident beam, the rate of exponential increase as the direction of the incident beam is approached scales as expected from diffusion theory, linearly with the cloud thickness, and inversely as the square root of the reduced optical thickness, and is independent of particle size. Near the beam the signal begins to increase faster than exponential, due to single and low-order scattering near the backward direction, and here the distribution depends on particle size. Results are being used to verify 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations, used to estimate signal-to-noise ratios for remotely sensed off beam returns, for both homogeneous and inhomogeneous clouds. Signal-to-noise estimates show that unfiltered observations are straight forward at night, while narrow band pass filters are being studied for day.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Cross Section Sensitivity and Propagated Errors in HZE Exposures

It has long been recognized that galactic cosmic rays are of such high energy that they tend to pass through available shielding materials resulting in exposure of astronauts and equipment within space vehicles and habitats. Any protection provided by shielding materials result not so much from stopping such particles but by changing their physical character in interaction with shielding material nuclei forming, hopefully, less dangerous species. Clearly, the fidelity of the nuclear cross-sections is essential to correct specification of shield design and sensitivity to cross-section error is important in guiding experimental validation of cross-section models and database. We examine the Boltzmann transport equation which is used to calculate dose equivalent during solar minimum, with units (cSv/yr), associated with various depths of shielding materials. The dose equivalent is a weighted sum of contributions from neutrons, protons, light ions, medium ions and heavy ions. We investigate the sensitivity of dose equivalent calculations due to errors in nuclear fragmentation cross-sections. We do this error analysis for all possible projectile-fragment combinations (14,365 such combinations) to estimate the sensitivity of the shielding calculations to errors in the nuclear fragmentation cross-sections. Numerical differentiation with respect to the cross-sections will be evaluated in a broad class of materials including polyethylene, aluminum and copper. We will identify the most important cross-sections for further experimental study and evaluate their impact on propagated errors in shielding estimates.

Heinbockel, John H.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Photofragmentation-laser induced fluorescence - A new method for detecting atmospheric trace gases

A new method for the in situ detection of nonfluorescing molecular species is proposed: photofragmentation-laser induced fluorescence (PF-LIF). In this approach, the species to be detected is first laser photolyzed at a wavelength lambda (1), producing one or more vibrationally excited photofragments. Before vibrational relaxation occurs, one of these photofragments is pumped into a bonding excited state by a second laser pulse centered at wavelength lambda (2). Fluorescence is sampled at a wavelength lambda (3), where lambda (3) is less then lambda (2) and lambda (1). This pumping configuration thus permits massive discrimination against Rayleigh and Raman scattering as well as white noise fluorescence from the laser wavelengths lambda (1) and lambda (2). The technique should be both highly sensitive and selective for numerous atmospheric trace gases. Specific sampling schemes for detecting NO2, NO3, and HNO2 are proposed. Various noise sources and chemical interferences are discussed. Specific calculations that estimate the sensitivity of the PF-LIF system for detecting NO2, NO3, and HNO2 are given.

Rodgers, M. O.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Study of space shuttle EVA/IVA support requirements. Volume 1: Technical summary report

Results are summarized which were obtained for equipment requirements for the space shuttle EVA/IVA pressure suit, life support system, mobility aids, vehicle support provisions, and energy 4 support. An initial study of tasks, guidelines, and constraints and a special task on the impact of a 10 psia orbiter cabin atmosphere are included. Supporting studies not related exclusively to any one group of equipment requirements are also summarized. Representative EVA/IVA task scenarios were defined based on an evaluation of missions and payloads. Analysis of the scenarios resulted in a total of 788 EVA/IVA's in the 1979-1990 time frame, for an average of 1.3 per shuttle flight. Duration was estimated to be under 4 hours on 98% of the EVA/IVA's, and distance from the airlock was determined to be 70 feet or less 96% of the time. Payload water vapor sensitivity was estimated to be significant on 9%-17% of the flights. Further analysis of the scenarios was carried out to determine specific equipment characteristics, such as suit cycle and mobility requirements.

Copeland, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Design of a celestial Thomson-scattering X-ray polarimeter.

A general discussion of the scientific importance and status of stellar X-ray polarimetry is presented. A stellar X-ray polarimeter designed to fit into the bottom half of the NASA OSO-1 wheel compartment or other similar spacecraft is described. In this design, the linear polarization is obtained as a function of energy. The sensitivity of the polarimeter in the 4-24 keV energy range was optimized with the aid of a Monte Carlo simulation computer program and is given for several important celestial X-ray sources. Estimates of sensitivity thresholds for a much larger polarimeter, suitable for flight in the NASA High-Energy Astronomy Observatory (HEAO), are also given. The minimum detectable polarization for several X-ray sources is given.

Landecker, P. B.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Using Dynamic Sensitivity Analysis to Assess Testability

This paper discusses sensitivity analysis and its relationship to random black box testing. Sensitivity analysis estimates the impact that a programming fault at a particular location would have on the program's input/output behavior. Locations that are relatively \"insensitive" to faults can render random black box testing unlikely to uncover programming faults. Therefore, sensitivity analysis gives new insight when interpreting random black box testing results. Although sensitivity analysis is computationally intensive, it requires no oracle and no human intervention.

Voas, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS2021

All-sky search in early O3 LIGO data for continuous gravitational-wave signals from unknown neutron stars in binary systems

Rapidly spinning neutron stars are promising sources of continuous gravitational waves. Detecting such a signal would allow probing of the physical properties of matter under extreme conditions. A significant fraction of the known pulsar population belongs to binary systems. Searching for unknown neutron stars in binary systems requires specialized algorithms to address unknown orbital frequency modulations. We present a search for continuous gravitational waves emitted by neutron stars in binary systems in early data from the third observing run of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors using the semicoherent, GPU-accelerated, binaryskyhough pipeline. The search analyzes the most sensitive frequency band of the LIGO detectors, 50–300 Hz. Binary orbital parameters are split into four regions, comprising orbital periods of three to 45 days and projected semimajor axes of two to 40 light seconds. No detections are reported. We estimate the sensitivity of the search using simulated continuous wave signals, achieving the most sensitive results to date across the analyzed parameter space.

Gravitation↗
NASA NTRS2015

Uncertainties in Isoprene Photochemistry and Emissions: Implications for the Oxidative Capacity of Past and Present Atmospheres and for Climate Forcing Agents

Current understanding of the factors controlling biogenic isoprene emissions and of the fate of isoprene oxidation products in the atmosphere has been evolving rapidly. We use a climate-biosphere-chemistry modeling framework to evaluate the sensitivity of estimates of the tropospheric oxidative capacity to uncertainties in isoprene emissions and photochemistry. Our work focuses on trends across two time horizons: from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years BP) to the preindustrial (1770s); and from the preindustrial to the present day (1990s). We find that different oxidants have different sensitivities to the uncertainties tested in this study, with OH being the most sensitive: changes in the global mean OH levels for the LGM-to-preindustrial transition range between -29 and +7, and those for the preindustrial-to-present day transition range between -8 and +17, across our simulations. Our results suggest that the observed glacial-interglacial variability in atmospheric methane concentrations is predominantly driven by changes in methane sources as opposed to changes in OH, the primary methane sink. However, the magnitudes of change are subject to uncertainties in the past isoprene global burdens, as are estimates of the change in the global burden of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) relative to the preindustrial. We show that the linear relationship between tropospheric mean OH and tropospheric mean ozone photolysis rates, water vapor, and total emissions of NOx and reactive carbon first reported in Murray et al. (2014) does not hold across all periods with the new isoprene photochemistry mechanism. Our results demonstrate that inadequacies in our understanding of present-day OH and its controlling factors must be addressed in order to improve model estimates of the oxidative capacity of past and present atmospheres.

methane↗