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Kinetics Modeling and Reactor Design Study of Glucose-to-Terpenes Cell-Free Conversion

Cell-free systems offer many advantages over traditional biological conversion by eliminating biological growth constraints. It also offers easy manipulation and finetuning of the reaction conditions for each individual enzyme. The conversion of cellulosic glucose to Limonene, a terpene, is a promising pathway for producing fuels and chemicals. Recent advances in developing cell-free systems focuses on bench scale optimization of terpene yield and to demonstrate its feasibility towards commercialization [1,2]. There is significant knowledge gap regarding reaction kinetics of these cell-free systems to further study how it will perform at larger scale. We present here, our studies on reaction kinetics and reactor design implications of cell-free glucose to Limonene conversion to facilitate the further development and commercialization of this process. We developed a novel kinetic model based on the metabolic-network structure of the cell-free system with multi-substrate reversible Michaelis-Menten rate law. To estimate kinetic parameters for this system of rate equations, we employed Bayesian optimization to perform global search with the assistance of gaussian processes to balance exploration and exploitation. The model parameters estimated showed good results compared with experimental data. The estimated parameters were used to perform sensitivity analysis. We found that Hexokinase is one of the most critical enzymes that affect the conversion of the glucose. We also observed that abundance of co-factors is also critical to the conversion of glucose to limonene. We investigated packed bed reactors with enzymes immobilized on the surface of particles to convert glucose stream into Limonene for larger scale production. The reactor design such as particle size, enzyme loading, and flow rate are found to be critical for improving yields. [1] Dudley, Q.M., Nash, C.J. and Jewett, M.C., 2019. Synthetic Biology, 4(1), p.ysz003. [2] Korman, T.P., Opgenorth, P.H. and Bowie, J.U., 2017. Nature communications, 8(1), p.15526.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Bayesian estimation of HIV acquisition dates for prevention trials

Accurate timing estimates of when participants acquire HIV in HIV prevention trials are necessary for determining antibody levels at acquisition. The Antibody-Mediated Prevention (AMP) Studies showed that a passively administered broadly neutralizing antibody can prevent the acquisition of HIV from a neutralization-sensitive virus. We developed a pipeline for estimating the date of detectable HIV acquisition (DDA) in AMP Study participants using diagnostic and viral sequence data. Using a Bayesian strategy that combines three streams of data (REN [rev/vpu/env/Δnef] sequence, GP [gag/Δpol] sequence, and diagnostic) where their 95% credible intervals overlap based on pre-specified criteria and decision rules. We evaluated the performance of our AMP pipeline using PacBio viral sequence data from 41 participants across two prospective acute HIV acquisition cohort studies, FRESH and RV217, with twice-weekly sampling. These cohort studies enrolled young women in South Africa and men and women in Kenya and Thailand, respectively, with a high likelihood of HIV acquisition. In evaluating performance, “true DDA” was the center of bounds between last-negative and first-positive RNA diagnostic tests (median time 4 days, range 2–7 days); bias was the mean difference between estimated and true DDA. Using diagnostic data alone yielded timing estimates with a bias of 2.4 days and root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.9 days. These results were improved using sequence + diagnostic data (bias 1.5 days, RMSE 6.9 days), as well as by restricting sequence-based estimation to samples from ≤5 weeks post-DDA (bias 0.2 days, RMSE 7.8 days).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Quantitative Risk Assessments of Hydrogen Infrastructure

Typical QRAs provide deterministic estimates and understanding of risks posed but are constructed using significant assumptions and uncertainties due to limited data availability and historical momentum of using nominal estimates. This report presents a hydrogen QRA analysis using HyRAM+ that incorporates uncertainty with Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis using linear regression.

08 HYDROGEN

Sensitivity Analysis for the Component Design App: Analysis of Success Assured Data

A new tool has been developed to perform variance-based global sensitivity analysis (VBGSA) on data from a set-based concurrent engineering software called Success Assured (SA). The tool is part of a digital component design app, which is currently in production as an Accelerated Digital Engineering Pathfinder at Sandia National Laboratories. When working with complex digital models, it is important to understand relationships between inputs and outputs, i.e., how “sensitive” model outputs are to changes in model inputs. After extensive research and trials of various sensitivity analysis methods, it was determined that estimation of Sobol’ indices for VBGSA with Monte Carlo simulation, paired with simple surrogate models, produces the best results for SA data. This tool increases understanding of SA models and streamlines the creation of SA datasets. This report details the methodology and implementation of this sensitivity analysis tool so others can understand it and implement it.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

A Measurement-Based Adaptive Voltage Regulation Method Considering Topology Changes

This paper proposes an online adaptive data-driven distributed energy resource (DER) dispatch optimization method for voltage control considering topology changes. By using a local sensitivity factor (LSF)-enabled voltage control, traditional DER control can be reformulated into a linear programming (LP) problem, leading to faster computation speeds. Power injection alteration and topology changes are two common operational changes in the distribution network that can affect the LSF and voltage control performance. To address this issue, a robust estimation method is developed to adjust the sensitivity matrix at each time step for the time-varying power injection changes. When topology changes occur, only the allocated predominant LSF submatrices are updated based on measurement data, allowing for a fast adaptation to the system reconfiguration. Results obtained from a real distribution feeder in Southern California demonstrate its robustness as compared to traditional volt-var control and constant LSF matrix dispatch control methods.

DERs

Comparative Evaluation of Spectral Methods for Robust Reactor Noise Estimation

Reactor noise analysis provides a noninvasive means to determine neutron kinetic parameters from stochastic fluctuations in detector signals. However, standard cross-power spectral density (CPSD) analyses can be sensitive to numerical processing choices, which may introduce processing-dependent systematic shifts in estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant (α) and limit reproducibility. This study uses a hybrid multitaper–Welch spectral estimator to analyze subcritical noise measurements from a fast-spectrum critical assembly. The decay constant α was extracted using three frequency-domain methods: the CPSD, the magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), and the generalized magnitude-squared coherence (GMSC). These coherence-based estimators normalize detector auto-spectral structure and are expected to reduce the sensitivity of fitted α values to processing parameters. A Sobol global sensitivity analysis identified which numerical inputs most strongly influence the fitted values of α. All estimators produced a linear dependence of α on inverse count rate, with delayed-critical extrapolations near 1.7 × 10 4 s −1 , in agreement within 8% of MCNP6.3 KOPTS benchmark calculations. Sensitivity results show that while the CPSD depends on both time-bin width and taper selection, the MSC and GMSC are dominated by time-bin width alone, indicating reduced parameter coupling and greater robustness to processing variability. These findings demonstrate the feasibility and practical value of coherence-based spectral estimators for extracting α from reactor noise and support their broader application to multi-detector and irregular datasets in subcritical system characterization.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND

Consequences of the failure of equipartition for the p – V behavior of liquid water and the hydration free energy components of a small protein

Earlier we showed that in the molecular dynamics simulation of a rigid model of water it is necessary to use an integration time-step δ t ≤ 0.5 fs to ensure equipartition between translational and rotational modes. Here we extend that study in the NVT ensemble to NpT conditions and to an aqueous protein. We study neat liquid water with the rigid, SPC/E model and the protein BBA (PDB ID: 1FME) solvated in the rigid, TIP3P model. We examine integration time-steps ranging from 0.5 fs to 4.0 fs for various thermostat plus barostat combinations. We find that a small δ t is necessary to ensure consistent prediction of the simulation volume. Hydrogen mass repartitioning alleviates the problem somewhat, but is ineffective for the typical time-step used with this approach. The compressibility, a measure of volume fluctuations, and the dielectric constant, a measure of dipole moment fluctuations, are also seen to be sensitive to δ t . Using the mean volume estimated from the NpT simulation, we examine the electrostatic and van der Waals contribution to the hydration free energy of the protein in the NVT ensemble. These contributions are also sensitive to δ t . In going from δ t = 2 fs to δ t = 0.5 fs, the change in the net electrostatic plus van der Waals contribution to the hydration of BBA is already in excess of the folding free energy reported for this protein.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.

Schreck, John S.

Regional Oil and gas Aerial Methane Synthesis model (ROAMS) v2.0

The Regional Oil and gas Aerial Methane Synthesis model is a tool to convert the results of wide-area, source-resolved aerial methane remote sensing surveys of oil and natural gas infrastructure in a given region into methane emissions inventories (estimates of the magnitude and breakdown of methane emissions from the surveyed infrastructure). The tool leverages databases of source-resolved methane emissions detected in aerial surveys, aerial survey coverage information (which areas were measured and when), data summarizing surveyed oil and natural gas infrastructure and production (derived from third-party databases), as well as state-of-the-art mechanistic emissions simulation tools to characterize emissions too small for the aerial system to see. The regional methane emissions estimates produced by this tool are much more granular in both space and asset type than common satellite- or flux tower-based regional estimates. Unlike other tools for converting site-level measurements into regional emissions estimates, our unique geostatistical approach integrates aerially measured emissions with limited need for statistical extrapolation, which can be highly sensitive to modeler assumptions. As a result, ROAMS-based estimates of regional methane emissions from oil and gas activity are widely viewed as highly credible, as evidenced by the success of Dr. Sherwin's recent paper in Nature.

Sherwin, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato

Regional Oil and gas Aerial Methane Synthesis model (Analytica) (ROAMS Analytica) v1.5.2

The Regional Oil and gas Aerial Methane Synthesis model (Analytica) is a tool to convert the results of wide-area, source-resolved aerial methane remote sensing surveys of oil and natural gas infrastructure in a given region into methane emissions inventories (estimates of the magnitude and breakdown of methane emissions from the surveyed infrastructure). This version is written in the Analytica programming language, and this version accompanies a correction in preparation for submission to Sherwin et al. 2024 (Nature). The tool leverages databases of source-resolved methane emissions detected in aerial surveys, aerial survey coverage information (which areas were measured and when), data summarizing surveyed oil and natural gas infrastructure and production (derived from third-party databases), as well as state-of-the-art mechanistic emissions simulation tools to characterize emissions too small for the aerial system to see. The regional methane emissions estimates produced by this tool are much more granular in both space and asset type than common satellite- or flux tower-based regional estimates. Unlike other tools for converting site-level measurements into regional emissions estimates, our unique geostatistical approach integrates aerially measured emissions with limited need for statistical extrapolation, which can be highly sensitive to modeler assumptions. As a result, ROAMS-based estimates of regional methane emissions from oil and gas activity are widely viewed as highly credible, as evidenced by the success of Dr. Sherwin's recent paper in Nature.

Sherwin, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato

Reconstructing Hanford worker external doses from photons for epidemiology

The accurate reconstruction of external photon doses is essential for credible radiation epidemiology. This article presents the methodology used to derive dose estimates for 37 012 Hanford Site workers included in the Million Person Study. The approach employs historical dose records from the Hanford Radiation Exposure database and a previous epidemiology study. Bias correction factors specific to dosimeter type and period of use were applied and missing annual doses were estimated using a hierarchical nearby method to estimate deep dose equivalent for each worker. For early years with limited detection sensitivity, missed doses were quantified based on expected time-period-specific, low-dose statistical distributions. The revised dose estimates resulted in lower median and mean career doses than unadjusted data, while increasing the number of person-years with nonzero dose. Sensitivity analyses assessed the influence of bias in dosimetry measurements, missed doses and gap years on dose estimates. Differences in cumulative dose estimates between unadjusted and revised annual estimates are most prominent in the early operational years due to the highest bias during that time period.

dose reconstruction

Sensitivity Analysis Tool for Electrochemical Conversion of CO2 to CO

Data presented in poster is sourced from the Electrochemical Catalyst Sensitivity Analysis Tool. This tool comprises a material balance model with cost estimation to estimate the levelized cost of product for CO production via CO2 electrolysis. A set of sensitivity analyses on key system and financial parameters is included with results so that users can test the impacts of these parameters on LCOP.

Henry, Samuel

In Situ Velocity‐Strain Sensitivity Near the San Jacinto Fault Zone Analyzed Through Train Tremors

Abstract We utilize train tremors as P‐wave seismic sources to investigate velocity‐strain sensitivity near the San Jacinto Fault Zone. A dense nodal array deployed at the Piñon Flat Observatory is used to detect and identify repeating train energy emitted from a railway in the Coachella valley. We construct P‐wave correlation functions across the fault zone and estimate the spatially averaged dt / t versus strain sensitivity to be 6.25 × 10 4 . Through numerical simulations, we explore how the sensitivity decays exponentially with depth. The optimal solution reveals a subsurface sensitivity of 1.2 × 10 5 and a depth decay rate of 0.05 km −1 . This sensitivity aligns with previous findings but is toward the higher end, likely due to the fractured fault‐zone rocks. The depth decay rate, previously unreported, is notably smaller than assumed in empirical models. This raises the necessity of further investigations of this parameter, which is crucial to study stress and velocity variations at seismogenic depth.

Geology

Constraining the Higgs potential with neural simulation-based inference for di-Higgs production

Determining the form of the Higgs potential is one of the most exciting challenges of modern particle physics. Higgs pair production directly probes the Higgs self-coupling and should be observed in the near future at the High-Luminosity LHC. We explore how to improve the sensitivity to physics beyond the Standard Model through per-event kinematics for di-Higgs events. In particular, we employ machine learning through simulation-based inference to estimate per-event likelihood ratios and gauge potential sensitivity gains from including this kinematic information. In terms of the Standard Model Effective Field Theory, we find that adding a limited number of observables can help to remove degeneracies in Wilson coefficient likelihoods and significantly improve the experimental sensitivity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

ASCR Workshop Position Paper: Challenges and Opportunities in High Energy Physics

High energy particle physics and cosmology concern themselves with estimating fundamental parameters of nature, such as the masses and interactions of fundamental particles like the Higgs boson and the rate of expansion of the universe. In doing so, they analyze exabyte-scale datasets, some of the largest in all of science, and face many challenges in subsequent data analysis. These challenges are shared between the two disciplines, but we focus on particle physics to highlight one specific domain. In particle physics, the standard method for estimating parameters involves performing Monte Carlo (MC) integration as a function of both parameters of interest and nuisance parameters using an expensive simulator, counting the number of observed collision events (i.i.d. samples) from an experiment in the corresponding integration domains, and forming a Poisson likelihood function. This likelihood function is then used in a Frequentist manner to construct a maximum likelihood point estimate (MLE) and confidence set for the parameters. To sufficiently populate the high-dimensional integration domains, simulators consume billions of CPU-hours annually and produce hundreds of petabytes of intermediate output data. Several techniques have been developed to: optimize definitions of the integration domains so as to be maximally sensitive to a particular subset of parameters, efficiently estimate the integrals, and build robust surrogate models by interpolating between integral evaluations at different parameter points. One can view this whole endeavor as classical Simulation-Based Inference (SBI).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

Bayesian analysis of (3 +1)⁢D relativistic nuclear dynamics with the RHIC beam energy scan data

This work presents a Bayesian inference study for relativistic heavy-ion collisions in the beam energy scan program at the BNL Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider. The theoretical model simulates event-by-event (3+1)-dimensional [(3+1)⁢D] collision dynamics using hydrodynamics and hadronic transport theory. We analyze the model's 20-dimensional posterior distributions obtained using three model emulators with different accuracy and demonstrate the essential role of training an accurate model emulator in the Bayesian analysis. Our analysis provides robust constraints on the quark-gluon plasma's transport properties and various aspects of (3+1)⁢D relativistic nuclear dynamics. By running full model simulations with 100 parameter sets sampled from the posterior distribution, we make predictions for p T -differential observables and estimate their systematic theory uncertainty. Here, a sensitivity analysis is performed to elucidate how individual experimental observables respond to different model parameters, providing useful physics insights into the phenomenological model for heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Isolating Unisolated Upsilons with Anomaly Detection in CMS Open Data

We present the first study of anti-isolated Upsilon decays to two muons (ϒ→𝜇⁺⁢𝜇⁻) in proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider. Using a machine learning (ML)-based anomaly detection strategy, we “rediscover” the ϒ in 13 TeV CMS Open Data from 2016, despite overwhelming anti-isolated backgrounds. We elevate the signal significance to 6.4⁢𝜎 using these methods, starting from 1.6⁢𝜎 using the dimuon mass spectrum alone. Moreover, we demonstrate improved sensitivity from using an ML-based estimate of the multifeature likelihood compared to traditional “cut-and-count” methods. This is the first ever detection of anti-isolated Upsilons, which can be useful in the study of heavy-flavor fragmentation in quantum chromodynamics. Our Letter demonstrates that it is possible and practical to find real signals in experimental collider data using ML-based anomaly detection, and we distill a readily accessible benchmark dataset from the CMS Open Data to facilitate future anomaly detection developments.

machine learning