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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Multicriteria-Based Selection of Microalgae Biorefineries: Biomass Composition Defines the Most Suitable Product Portfolios

The supply of microalgae-derived biofuels and bioproducts will be vital in a global-scale bioeconomy. As the diversity of microalgae strains and their compositional plasticity may yield a wide array of products of market interest, the design of effective biorefineries is a central aspect in the path to making microalgae-based products available in the market. In this way, the conversion of microalgae biomass should be planned to employ mature technologies, while maximizing economic and environmental benefits obtained from a diverse product portfolio. This study applied sequential, hybrid Multicriteria Decision Analyses (MCDA) to aid the decision-making process of outlining the most suitable biorefining pathways for specific compositional profiles. For this, the methodology simultaneously considered multiple technical, economic, and environmental criteria, such as market aspects for the main algae-derived products, potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions provided by the biobased alternatives, and technology readiness level of conversion routes, among others. The framework was tested using productivity and compositional data for 13 high-productivity summer strains cultivated under varying nutrient availability. The analysis pointed to compositional profile being a key driver in defining the core biorefining strategy of algae biomass, with lipid-to-carbohydrate ratios higher than roughly 1 warranting the preferential processing of lipids into hydrocarbon fuels with the remainder of the algae biomass compounds being sent to higher-value applications, such as carboxylic acids and renewable thermoplastic substitutes. An in-depth process simulation, techno-economic assessment (TEA), and life-cycle analysis (LCA) effort was carried out as a closing step to corroborate the results stemming from the proposed framework. This study validates the use of MCDAs as a screening method prior to implementing more time-consuming analysis techniques and makes a compelling case for this approach as a product selection tool on a wide range of algae species, thus helping establish species-agnostic (but composition-driven) biorefineries.

biofuels↗
DOE OSTI2022

The role of information structures in game-theoretic multi-agent learning

Multi-agent learning (MAL) studies how agents learn to behave optimally and adaptively from their experience when interacting with other agents in dynamic environments. The outcome of a MAL process is jointly determined by all agents’ decision-making. Hence, each agent needs to think strategically about others’ sequential moves, when planning future actions. The strategic interactions among agents makes MAL go beyond the direct extension of single-agent learning to multiple agents. With the strategic thinking, each agent aims to build a subjective model of others decision-making using its observations. Such modeling is directly influenced by agents’ perception during the learning process, which is called the information structure of the agent’s learning. As it determines the input to MAL processes, information structures play a significant role in the learning mechanisms of the agents. This review creates a taxonomy of MAL and establishes a unified and systematic way to understand MAL from the perspective of information structures. Here we define three fundamental components of MAL: the information structure (i.e., what the agent can observe), the belief generation (i.e., how the agent forms a belief about others based on the observations), as well as the policy generation (i.e., how the agent generates its policy based on its belief). In addition, this taxonomy enables the classification of a wide range of state-of-the-art algorithms into four categories based on the belief-generation mechanisms of the opponents, including stationary, conjectured, calibrated, and sophisticated opponents. We introduce Value of Information (VoI) as a metric to quantify the impact of different information structures on MAL. Finally, we discuss the strengths and limitations of algorithms from different categories and point to promising avenues of future research.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Representing heterogeneity in structural relationships among multiple choice variables using a latent segmentation approach

Travel model systems often adopt a single decision structure that links several activity-travel choices together. The single decision structure is then used to predict activity-travel choices, with those downstream in the decision-making chain influenced by those upstream in the sequence. The adoption of a singular sequential causal structure to depict relationships among activity-travel choices in travel demand model systems ignores the possibility that some choices are made jointly as a bundle as well as the possible presence of structural heterogeneity in the population with respect to decision-making processes. As different segments in the population may adopt and follow different causal decision-making mechanisms when making selected choices jointly, it would be of value to develop simultaneous equations model systems relating multiple endogenous choice variables that are able to identify population subgroups following alternative causal decision structures. Because the segments are not known a priori, they are considered latent and determined endogenously within a joint modeling framework proposed in this paper. The methodology is applied to a national mobility survey data set to identify population segments that follow different causal structures relating residential location choice, vehicle ownership, and car-share and mobility service usage. It is found that the model revealing three distinct latent segments best describes the data, confirming the efficacy of the modeling approach and the existence of structural heterogeneity in decision-making in the population. Future versions of activity-travel model systems should strive to incorporate such structural heterogeneity to better reflect varying decision processes across population subgroups.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2023

A systematic multicriteria-based approach to support product portfolio selection in microalgae biorefineries

Here this work proposes and applies a sequential approach of objective methods to aid the decision-making process for the deployment of microalgae biorefineries. The strategy combines Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and weight assignment methods to simultaneously consider technical, economic, and environmental criteria to (1) outrank the best bioproduct options from different biomass fractions present in microalgae biomass at different ratios (namely carbohydrates, lipids, and protein) and (2) define the most suitable biorefining pathways associated with specific pairings of microalgae strains and cultivation conditions. The first part of the assessment identified succinic acid, acrylic acid, and citric acid as the top-ranked bioproducts from carbohydrates, polyurethane from lipids, and thermoplastic extrusion co-feed from protein. The second step of the analysis determined that, when production of a hydrocarbon fuel is desired, the compositional profile of a strain is paramount in defining the biorefining setup that should be pursued. In summary, microalgae lipids should be sent to the production of hydrocarbon fuels if the ratio between neutral lipids and fermentable carbohydrates is higher than roughly 1, with carbohydrates and protein being converted to the higher-value products noted above. Finally, this result was corroborated through process simulations, which indicated superior economic and environmental metrics when strains are paired with suitable conversion pathways identified through MCDA based on their compositional profiles. The outcomes of this work provide clear, objective, guidelines for establishing the best biorefining approach for a large suite of biochemical compositions as a screening method prior to employing detailed process simulations alongside rigorous techno-economic and life-cycle assessments.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Accelerating Computation of the Unit Commitment Problem (Presentation)

Production cost models (PCMs) simulate power system operation at hourly (or higher) resolution. While computation times often extend into multiple days, the sequential nature of PCM's makes parallelism difficult. We exploit the persistence of unit commitment decisions to select partition boundaries for simulation horizon decomposition and parallel computation. Partitioned simulations are benchmarked against sequential solutions for optimality and computation time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1980

A generalized formulation of minimum shift keying modulation

The modulator structure consisting of a single-input two-output sequential transducer whose output sequences control the modulated signal in the manner s(t) = x(i)p(t) + y(i)q(t) is considered. Here, iT is less than or equal to t, which is less than iT + T, where T is the modulation bit duration and where x(i) and y(i) take values in /+1, -1, 0/. The behavior of a sequential transducer is characterized by means of a 'trellis'. It is shown that, provided only that the 'carriers' p(t) and q(t) have the same energy in every bit interval, the optimum demodulator for the additive white Gaussian noise channel need process the received signal over only two bit intervals in making each data bit decision. It is demonstrated that particular choices of the sequential transducer yield differential minimum shift keying and differential staggered quadriphase shift keying. Possible generalizations of this approach are discussed.

Massey, J. L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A game-theoretic approach to nuclear fuel cycle transition analysis under uncertainty

We present a novel methodology for optimizing nuclear fuel cycle transitions that incorporates a game-theoretic approach and captures interactions among multiple decision makers. The methodology is demonstrated using a two-person sequential game with uncertainty, where the two players represent a policy maker and an electric utility company, though the method generalizes to any number and type of individual decision making entities. Coupled with a sophisticated nuclear fuel cycle simulator, rich transition scenarios may be analyzed to identify robust transition strategies. These strategies explicitly treat uncertainties using a stochastic programming approach, devising optimal near-term hedging strategies that simultaneously consider all possible states of the world, maintaining flexibility to allow for intelligent recourse decisions once uncertainties are resolved. In the demonstration game, reactor technology and fuel cycle scheme adopted by the electric utility are shown to depend on both the policy maker’s decisions and the distributions over uncertain technological and economic outcomes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation and Optimization of Volatile Fatty Acid Upgrading Strategies for Sustainable Transportation Fuel Production

Underutilized wet waste is a promising feedstock for production of carbon-neutral or carbon-negative liquid transportation fuels. Arrested methanogenesis of wet wastes by microbes, which produces mixtures of C2-C8 carboxylic acids (volatile fatty acids, VFAs), is practiced industrially at a pilot scale and the VFA products can be catalytically upgraded to molecules suitable for use as transportation fuels (alcohols and alkanes) via sequential ketonization and hydrogenation, both steps of which have been demonstrated with high (>90%) yield at the lab scale. We present in this work a simulation-based decision-making framework which evaluates upgrading strategies of VFAs to alcohol- and hydrocarbon-based neat and blended diesel, jet, and gasoline fuels. The processes utilize sequential upgrading steps (ketonization and hydrogenation) accompanied by one distillation step (either separating VFAs before ketonization or alcohols after ketone hydrogenation) to form two liquid streams: a light alcohol stream best suited as a light-duty fuel and a heavy alcohol or hydrocarbon stream best suited as a diesel or jet fuel. Suitability of the liquid products as transportation fuels and maximum blending levels with petrofuels comes from simulation of critical fuel properties (boiling point, flash point, lower heating value, viscosity, melting point, water solubility, and cetane/octane number). Catalytic upgrading steps and fuel property mixing models used by the simulation are experimentally validated. We demonstrate the flexibility of the decision-making algorithm by evaluating processing scenarios for experimentally-observed VFA profiles with varied carbon chain length distributions. Processing scenarios are optimized for either maximum total renewable carbon utilization or production of heavy-duty (jet or diesel) fuels. We evaluate the economic viability and CO2 emissions of each proposed upgrading scenario using techno-economic and life cycle analyses. The decision-making framework developed in this work can also be used to down-select promising strategies for upgrading of other bio-based feedstocks to sustainable fuels and chemicals.

aviation fuel↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Emphasis of Design Patterns in Expressing Expert Knowledge From A Technical Solution – A Framework for Continued Research

Digital Engineering is a transformative strategy that leverages an integrated model-based approach to improve communication, decision making, design understanding, and acquisition efficiency of system development. As modern systems are derived from pre-existing systems, harvesting expert knowledge from proven systems in a useful, model-based way will reduce the experiential learning and cognition required for new system development, contributing to a Digital Engineering transformation. Motivated by performance gains observed during a multi-year, sequential development activity, this survey reviews knowledge, architecture, and pattern literature to establish a framework for research of architectural methods for expert knowledge identification and description using Model Based System Engineering. The multi-year sequential development activity is offered as the experimental system of interest for this research. This work aims to enable a digital engineering strategy that improves concept phase decision making, accelerates knowledge acquisition from lessons learned repositories, and eases the burden of generational knowledge loss.

Lithium Ion↗
NASA NTRS2010

Collective Intelligence and Three Aspects of Planning in Organizations: A NASA Example

For many complex sociotechnical systems, planning seems to require explicit coordination; certainly, in executing a plan the activities of different actors must be tightly coupled. However, distributing the needed planning information can be very burdensome and error prone, because different groups need different collections of information, updated or kept current on different time cycles. Further, the information needed to form successful plans is often highly distributed, and while feedback about the success of prior plans may exist, it may not be available to those in a position of using this to improve plans or to detect and resolve other problems in the system (Weick, 1995). Tools to support various aspects of planning have been developed, and can provide a huge benefit to the individuals working on that aspect. To be tractable, most solutions address a quite bounded slice of work, isolating it from the larger context. Prospective planning takes place over multiple, nested cycles of decision making. This builds a plan that specifies activities of different granularity. "Subplans" may specify multiple parallel activities by different groups and individuals, as well as sequential, nested actions by a single actor. Planning produces valuable, sharable, external, representations: in addition to prospective use, plans support retrospective assessment and also action in the present. Viewing planning in a larger context - both temporal and organizational -- enables noticing what one does not know and generating more systemic and effective solutions. Viewing a problem as one of collective intelligence invites thinking about the larger organizational context. Many approaches to supporting collective intelligence do not support execution of highly contingent actions, distributed across many players, and hence provide incomplete support for planning. However, CI technology maybe helpful in managing the processes of gathering information for decision making in planning and of distributing plan information to various actors, needed on various time cycles.

Billman, Dorrit↗
DOE OSTI2017

Scheduled Sequential Compressed Spectrum Sensing for Wideband Cognitive Radios

The support for high data rate applications with the cognitive radio technology necessitates wideband spectrum sensing. However, it is costly to apply long-term wideband sensing and is especially difficult in the presence of uncertainty, such as high noise, interference, outliers, and channel fading. In this paper, we propose scheduling of sequential compressed spectrum sensing which jointly exploits compressed sensing (CS) and sequential periodic detection techniques to achieve more accurate and timely wideband sensing. Instead of invoking CS to reconstruct the signal in each period, our proposed scheme performs backward grouped-compressed-data sequential probability ratio test (backward GCD-SPRT) using compressed data samples in sequential detection, while CS recovery is only pursued when needed. This method on one hand significantly reduces the CS recovery overhead, and on the other takes advantage of sequential detection to improve the sensing quality. Furthermore, we propose (a) an in-depth sensing scheme to accelerate sensing decision-making when a change in channel status is suspected, (b) a block-sparse CS reconstruction algorithm to exploit the block sparsity properties of wide spectrum, and (c) a set of schemes to fuse results from the recovered spectrum signals to further improve the overall sensing accuracy. Finally, extensive performance evaluation results show that our proposed schemes can significantly outperform peer schemes under sufficiently low SNR settings.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sequentially calibrating a Bayesian microsimulation model to incorporate new information and assumptions

Background: Microsimulation models are mathematical models that simulate event histories for individual members of a population. They are useful for policy decisions because they simulate a large number of individuals from an idealized population, with features that change over time, and the resulting event histories can be summarized to describe key population-level outcomes. Model calibration is the process of incorporating evidence into the model. Calibrated models can be used to make predictions about population trends in disease outcomes and effectiveness of interventions, but calibration can be challenging and computationally expensive. Methods: This paper develops a technique for sequentially updating models to take full advantage of earlier calibration results, to ultimately speed up the calibration process. A Bayesian approach to calibration is used because it combines different sources of evidence and enables uncertainty quantification which is appealing for decision-making. We develop this method in order to re-calibrate a microsimulation model for the natural history of colorectal cancer to include new targets that better inform the time from initiation of preclinical cancer to presentation with clinical cancer (sojourn time), because model exploration and validation revealed that more information was needed on sojourn time, and that the predicted percentage of patients with cancers detected via colonoscopy screening was too low. Results: The sequential approach to calibration was more efficient than recalibrating the model from scratch. Incorporating new information on the percentage of patients with cancers detected upon screening changed the estimated sojourn time parameters significantly, increasing the estimated mean sojourn time for cancers in the colon and rectum, providing results with more validity. Conclusions: A sequential approach to recalibration can be used to efficiently recalibrate a microsimulation model when new information becomes available that requires the original targets to be supplemented with additional targets.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Understanding Climate Policy Data Needs. NASA Carbon Monitoring System Briefing: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty, Washington D.C., 11 January 2012

Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels. This mitigation strategy is made up of programs that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide fluxes derived from observations of earth's land, ocean and atmosphere used in state of the art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on CO2 reductions, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process. In January of 2012, the CMS team held a meeting with carbon policy and decision makers in Washington DC to describe the developing modeling system to policy makers. The NASA CMS will develop pilot studies to provide information across a range of spatial scales, consider carbon storage in biomass, and improve measures of the atmospheric distribution of carbon dioxide. The pilot involves multiple institutions (four NASA centers as well as several universities) and over 20 scientists in its work. This pilot study will generate CO2 flux maps for two years using observational constraints in NASA's state-of -the-art models. Bottom-up surface flux estimates will be computed using data-constrained land and ocean models; comparison of the different techniques will provide some knowledge of uncertainty in these estimates. Ensembles of atmospheric carbon distributions will be computed using an atmospheric general circulation model (GEOS-5), with perturbations to the surface fluxes and to transport. Top-down flux estimates will be computed from observed atmospheric CO2 distributions (ACOS/GOSAT retrievals) alongside the forward-model fields, in conjunction with an inverse approach based on the CO2 model of GEOS ]Chem. The forward model ensembles will be used to build understanding of relationships among surface flux perturbations, transport uncertainty and atmospheric carbon concentration. This will help construct uncertainty estimates and information on the true spatial resolution of the top-down flux calculations. The relationship between the top-down and bottom-up flux distributions will be documented. Because the goal of NASA CMS is to be policy relevant, the scientists involved in the flux modeling pilot need to understand and be focused on the needs of the climate policy and decision making community. If policy makers are to use CMS products, they must be aware of the modeling effort and begin to design policies that can be evaluated with information. Improving estimates of carbon sequestered in forests, for example, will require information on the spatial variability of forest biomass that is far more explicit than is presently possible using only ground observations. Carbon mitigation policies being implemented by cities around the United States could be designed with the CMS data in mind, enabling sequential evaluation and subsequent improvements in incentives, structures and programs. The success of climate mitigation programs being implemented in the United States today will hang on the depth of the relationship between scientists and their policy and decision making counterparts. Ensuring that there is two-way communication between data providers and users is important for the success both of the policies and the scientific products meant to support them..

Brown, Molly E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Connected and Learning Based Optimal Freight Management for Efficiency

The management of the future heterogenous fleet is a complex decision-making problem. The heterogenous fleet is emerging as decarbonization technologies are deployed by fleets toward lowering the freight operation emissions in Medium and Heavy-duty vehicles. Traditionally, in fleets characterized by a homogeneous Diesel Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) powertrain, the process of fleet planning and operational optimization unfolds sequentially without the necessity to account for powertrain and vehicle-specific characteristics during dispatch decisions. Fleets with trucks less than 5 years old tend to maintain stable vehicle efficiency with minimal operational reliability risks for fleet managers. However, the landscape changes with the incorporation of emerging powertrain technologies, which lack extensive operational data and service experiences. This includes technologies like hybrid, Electric, Fuel Cell, or alternative fuel ICE. Operational decisions for fleets featuring heterogeneous powertrain technologies and facing limited access to alternative fueling and charging stations become intricate, requiring careful consideration and optimization at each dispatch. The difference in efficiency characteristics of emerging technologies, their range limitations, and the restricted availability of charging/alternative fueling infrastructure, coupled with sensitivity to driving conditions (e.g., EV range reduction in low temperatures) and their impact on component aging (such as batteries), become pivotal factors influencing the reliable and efficient freight transportation. To make the path toward low emission freight transportation efficient and reliable, an AI-assisted fleet management software is developed in this project to help fleet managers in optimizing both adoption of emerging powertrain decarbonization, connected and automated technologies and also operating the fleet after such technologies are deployed as schematically. Freight transportation requirements are different depending on the cargos to be shipped, customer requirements and regions of operations. This further highlights the need for software and digital solutions to tailor deployment and operation of emerging powertrain, connectivity, and automation technologies toward the specific fleet operation requirements. The fleet management optimizer was also integrated with a model of the fleet to simulate the operation of the fleet over 1 year of the baseline fleet operation (250,000+ shipments) indicating the significance of day-to-day variations on emissions and energy consumption of a freight transportation fleet. The results demonstrate ≥20% improvement in freight efficiency in terms of WTW CO2 per ton-mile of cargo shipments while all fleet operation constraints are enforced, and the cost (CapEx and OpEx) is minimized.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

AIF for Vis (Active Inference for simulating human interpretation of data visualization) [SWR-26-084]

AIF for Vis contains the Active Inference models and analysis scripts used to study a simple visualization-interpretation task: estimating the average value of two bars in a bar chart. The work is a proof of concept for translating hypothesized cognitive strategies into executable, inspectable process models. We implement two idealized strategies inspired by dual-process accounts of visualization-aided decision making: *Fast model: a compressed, heuristic strategy that estimates the visual midpoint of the two bars and maintains a single belief over their average. *Slow model: a sequential, analytic strategy that estimates the two bar heights separately and maintains them in working memory before computing an average. Both models use a common Active-Inference-inspired framework for sequential perception, belief updating, action selection, and reporting. Their different internal representations produce distinct predicted vulnerabilities: *the Fast model is more susceptible to tick-salience bias; *the Slow model is more susceptible to working-memory decay. The repository includes the model implementations, scripts used for the experiments reported in the paper, precomputed trial-level results, and plotting scripts.

Goldwyn, Harrison [National Laboratory of the Rock↗
DOE OSTI2019

Calibration of Car-Following Models Using a Dual Genetic Algorithm with Central Composite Design

We report the calibration of microscopic traffic simulation models has received much attention in the simulation field. Although no standard has been established for it, a genetic algorithm (GA) has been widely employed in recent literature because of its high efficiency to find solutions in such optimization problems. However, the performance still falls short in simulation analyses to support fast decision making. This paper proposes a new calibration procedure using a dual GA and central composite design (CCD) in order to improve the efficiency. The calibration exercise goes through three major sequential steps: (1) experimental design using CCD for a quadratic response surface model (RSM) estimation, (2) 1st GA procedure using the RSM with CCD to find a near-optimal initial population for a next step, and (3) 2nd GA procedure to find a final solution. The proposed method was applied in calibrating the Gipps car-following model with respect to maximizing the likelihood of a spacing distribution between a lead and following vehicle. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, a conventional calibration approach using a single GA was compared under both simulated and real vehicle trajectory data. It was found that the proposed approach enhances the optimization speed by starting to search from an initial population that is closer to the optimum than that of the other approach. This result implies the proposed approach has benefits for a large-scale traffic network simulation analysis. Finally, this method can be extended to other optimization tasks using GA in transportation studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Active learning path-dependent properties using a cloud-based materials acceleration platform

Solid state materials are central to many modern technologies in which a given material may be exposed to a variety of environments. The material properties often vary with the sequence of environments in an irreversible manner, resulting in a quintessential path-dependency in experimental observables. While sequential learning techniques have been effectively deployed for accelerating learning of state properties of materials, they often use a consistent environment path in all experiments. To elevate such techniques for making optimal decisions in experimental investigations of path-dependent properties, we introduce an iterated expected information gain acquisition function that optimizes over entire experimental trajectories. This approach is implemented within a cloud-based Materials Acceleration Platform architecture utilizing an event-driven stateful broker coupled with remote HELAO (Hierarchical Experimental Laboratory Automation and Orchestration) instances and an AI science manager. The platform's efficacy was demonstrated through a case study optimizing multi-step spectro-electrochemical experiments to identify optically stable potential windows in (Co–Ni–Sb)O z metal oxides. The system successfully integrated AI-driven experiment design, remote laboratory automation, and cloud-based data infrastructure, validating the platform's capability for managing complex, adaptive, path-dependent workflows in materials discovery.

Guevarra, Dan [California Institute of Technology ↗