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DEEP SPACE INDUSTRIALIZATION: Key To Sustainable Exploration, Development and Settlement of the Solar System

Recent developments related to deep space exploration and development have raised the question of whether the paradigm shift that many people have been expecting, from space exploration to space development and industrialization, is finally occurring. These recent events include Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) announcement that they have been contacted by two wealthy individuals who would like to travel around the Moon within the next two years and a recently reported story of Jeff Bezos’ proposal to the Trump Administration to offer cargo delivery services to the Lunar surface (Blue Moon) by mid 2020 as part of a public/private partnership with NASA. In addition Bob Bigelow, founder of Bigelow Aerospace, has announced the capability and desire to put a crewed space station in orbit around the Moon in this same 2020 time period. Moon Express has also recently announced that they are fully funded for their attempt to land their robotic probe on the lunar surface at the end of this year, not only to win the Google Lunar XPrize but also to jump start their lunar mining efforts. On the international front the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg has established a 200 million euro fund to invest in space mining companies with the aim of making Luxembourg the European leader in deep space commerce. To date they have made investments in two companies; Deep Space Industries and Planetary Resources both of which were established to prospect and mine near Earth asteroids. Other counties such as India, China, Japan and even Israel are eying this high frontier for deep space commerce. This paper will explore how these developments could help enable this deep space industrialization and jumpstart a thriving deep space economy. The role that NASA and the US government can and should play in this effort and the role of public/private partnerships will also be discussed. Finally, what these developments could lead to over the next 10-15 years will be analysed and the potential size of this deep space economy will be estimated.

Pittman, Robert B.↗

Commercialization and Human Settlement of the Moon and Cislunar Space Using ISRU, Fission Surface Power, and Advanced In-Space Propulsion Systems

Over 50 years have passed since themovie 2001: A Space Odyssey debuted in April 1968. In the film, Dr. Heywood Floyd flies to a large artificial gravity space station orbiting Earth aboard a commercial space plane. He then embarks on a commuter flight to the Moon arriving there 25 hours later. Today, on the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11lunar landing, the images portrayed in 2001 remain well beyond our capabilities and 2100: A Space Odyssey seems a more appropriate title for Kubrick and Clarke's film. This paper looks at the key technologies, systems, and supporting infrastructure (in-situ resource utilization (ISRU), fission surface power (FSP), nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP), andorbiting propellant depots), that could be developed by NASA and the private sector over the next 30years allowing the operational capabilities presented in 2001 to be achieved, albeit on a more spartan scale.

Borowski, Stan↗

Modeling hydraulic fracture opening and closure with proppant transport and settlement

Hydraulic fracturing is a widely used reservoir stimulation technique for improving fluid circulation in rock formations with extremely low permeability, particularly in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). To better understand the complex processes involved and improve hydraulic stimulation performance, we have developed ELK (ELectrical fracKing), a MOOSE-based 3D finite element application designed to model the behavior of proppant-fluid mixtures in propagating fractures. ELK integrates both the fluid and proppant components, incorporating particle-driven processes such as gravity settling, particle-particle interactions, and strong density and viscosity contracts, in addition to conventional fluid-driven fracture propagation. In this contribution, we extend ELK to model propped fracture closure, which occurs after the injection phase due to a dramatic drop in the effective stress on the fracture plane. During the shut-in, flowback, and production periods, the fracture width decreases, with the closure behavior depending on proppant concentration.. At low concentrations, closure follows a nonlinear joint law linked to the stiffness of asperities in the fracture walls. While at high concentrations, it is controlled by the properties of packed proppant bed. The extended ELK application is validated against several benchmark examples, including the propagation of an inclined frictional crack, fracture opening and sliding in response to fluid injection, and flowback analysis. We believe that ELK’s enhanced capabilities can serve as a valuable tool for the design and optimization of EGS deployment.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Spatial distributions of Tribrachidium, Rugoconites, and Obamus from the Ediacara Member (Rawnsley Quartzite), South Australia

The spatial distribution of in situ sessile organisms, including those from the fossil record, provides information about life histories, such as possible dispersal and/or settlement mechanisms, and how taxa interact with one another and their local environments. At Nilpena Ediacara National Park (NENP), South Australia, the exquisite preservation and excavation of 33 fossiliferous bedding planes from the Ediacara Member of the Rawnsley Quartzite reveals in situ communities of the Ediacara Biota. Here, the spatial distributions of three relatively common taxa, Tribrachidium, Rugoconites, and Obamus, occurring on excavated surfaces were analyzed using spatial point pattern analysis. Tribrachidium have a variable spatial distribution, implying that settlement or post-settlement conditions/preferences had an effect on populations. Rugoconites display aggregation, possibly related to their reproductive methods in combination with settlement location availability at the time of dispersal and/or settlement. Additionally, post-settlement environmental controls could have affected Rugoconites on other surfaces, resulting in lower populations and densities. Both Tribrachidium and Rugoconites also commonly occur as individuals or in low numbers on a number of beds, thus constraining possible reproductive strategies and environmental/substrate preferences. The distribution of Obamus is consistent with selective settlement, aggregating near conspecifics and on substrates of mature microbial mat. This dispersal process is the first example of substrate-selective dispersal among the Ediacara Biota, thus making Obamus similar to numerous modern sessile invertebrates with similar dispersal and settlement strategies. Resumen La distribución espacial de los organismos sésiles in situ, incluyendo los del registro fósil, brinda información sobre las historias de vida, tal como los posibles mecanismos de dispersión y/o asentamiento, y sobre cómo los taxones interactúan entre sí y entre sus entornos locales. En el Parque Nacional Nilpena Ediacara (NENP), Australia Meridional, la excelente preservación y excavación de 33 planos de lecho fosilífero del Miembro Ediacara de la Cuarcita Rawnsley revela comunidades in situ de la biota ediacárica. En este estudio analizamos las distribuciones espaciales de tres taxones relativamente comunes, Tribrachidium, Rugoconites y Obamus, que se encuentran en superficies excavadas mediante el análisis de patrones de puntos espaciales. Tribrachidium tiene una distribución espacial variable, lo que implica que las condiciones/preferencias durante o después del asentamiento tuvieron un efecto en las poblaciones. Rugoconites muestran agregación, posiblemente relacionado con sus métodos reproductivos en combinación con la disponibilidad de lugares de asentamiento en el momento de la dispersión y/o asentamiento. Además, los controles ambientales posteriormente al asentamiento podrían estar afectando a Rugoconites en otras superficies, lo que resultaría en poblaciones y densidades más bajas. Tanto Tribrachidium como Rugoconites ocurren como individuos en varios lechos, restringiendo las posibles estrategias reproductivas y las preferencias ambientales/de sustrato. La distribución de Obamus es consistente con un asentamiento selectivo, agregando cerca de sus congéneres y sobre sustratos de tapete microbiano maduro. Este proceso de dispersión es el primer ejemplo de dispersión selectiva de sustrato entre la biota ediacárica, lo que hace que Obamus sea similar a numerosos invertebrados sésiles modernos con estrategias similares de dispersión y asentamiento.

Phillip C. Boan↗

Exploring the Influence of Impervious Surface Density and Shape on Urban Heat Islands in the Northeast USA Using MODIS and Landsat

Impervious surface area (ISA) from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2001 and land surface temperature (LST) from MODIS averaged over three annual cycles (2003-2005) are used in a spatial analysis to assess the urban heat island (UHI) signature and its relationship to settlement size and shape, development intensity distribution, and land cover composition for 42 urban settlements embedded in forest biomes in the Northeastern United States. Development intensity zones, based on percent ISA, are defined for each urban area emanating outward from the urban core to nearby rural areas and are used to stratify land surface temperature. The stratification is further constrained by biome type and elevation to insure objective intercomparisons between urban zones within an urban settlement and between settlements. Stratification based on ISA allows the definition of hierarchically ordered urban zones that are consistent across urban settlements and scales. In addition to the surrounding ecological context, we find that the settlement size and shape as well as the development intensity distribution significantly influence the amplitude of summer daytime UHI. Within the Northeastern US temperate broadleaf mixed forest, UHI magnitude is positively related to the logarithm of the urban area size. Our study indicates that for similar urban area sizes, the development intensity distribution is one of the major drivers of UHI. In addition to urban area size and development intensity distribution, this analysis shows that both the shape of the urban area and the land cover composition in the surrounding rural area play an important role in modulating the UHI magnitude in different urban settlements. Our results indicate that remotely sensed urban area size and shape as well as the development intensity distribution influence UHI amplitude across regional scales.

Zhang, Ping↗

Putting us on the Map: Remote Sensing Investigation of the Ancient Maya Landscape

A common problem for archaeologists studying ancient settlement in the Maya Lowlands is overcoming the dense vegetation in order to obtain an accurate regional perspective of the presence of archaeological sites, their exact locations and their overall extents. Most often this is done by extensive ground surveys in which many individuals chop parallel paths through the vegetation in search of sites. Once a site is found an effort is made to mark its location on a regional map and to explore its perimeter. Obtaining locational information has been made dramatically easier in recent years with the advent of improved Global Positioning Systems (GPS), however the process of initial identification of sites and the determination of their borders is exceedingly labor intensive and has remained relatively unchanged since the beginning of settlement surveys in the region in the 1950's. Currently, we are revolutionizing settlement survey in the Maya Lowlands by using remotely sensed data from IKONOS, Quickbird, and Eol, satellites. The Ancient Maya built their cities, towns and even their smallest hamlets using excavated limestone and lime plasters. We propose that the decay of these structures provides a unique microenvironment for the growth of vegetation as the levels of moisture and nutrition within the ruins vary substantially from those in the surrounding forest. These microenvironmental differences on the ground are likewise represented by compositional differences in the forest canopy both in the species present and in leaf color (representing moisture/nutritional stress) visible through the analysis of high- resolution satellite data. In this way the detailed analysis of forest composition can reveal a detailed picture of the ancient settlements that lie beneath it. Preliminary examinations using this technique have been very successful and we are refining these techniques in order to efficiently comprehend the details of Ancient Maya settlement in the Lowlands.

Sever, Thomas L.↗

Putting Us on the Map: Remote Sensing Investigation of the Ancient Maya Landscape

A common problem for archaeologists studying ancient settlement in the Maya Lowlands is overcoming the dense vegetation in order to obtain an accurate regional perspective of the presence of archaeological sites, their exact locations and their overall extents. Most often this is done by extensive ground surveys in which many individuals chop parallel paths through the vegetation in search of sites. Once a site is found an effort is made to mark its location on a regional map and to explore its perimeter. Obtaining locational information has been made dramatically easier in recent years with the advent of improved Global Positioning Systems (GPS), however the process of initial identification of sites and the determination of their borders is exceedingly labor intensive and has remained relatively unchanged since the beginning of settlement surveys in the region in the 1950 s. Currently, we are revolutionizing settlement survey in the Maya Lowlands by using remotely sensed data from IKONOS, Quickbird, and Eo 1, satellites as well as airborne AIRSAR radar data. The Ancient Maya built their cities, towns and even their smallest hamlets using excavated limestone and lime plasters. We propose that the decay of these structures provides a unique microenvironment for the growth of vegetation as the levels of moisture and nutrition within the ruins vary substantially from those in the surrounding forest. These microenvironmental differences on the ground are likewise represented by compositional differences in the forest canopy both in the species present and in leaf color (representing moisture/nutritional stress) visible through the analysis of high-resolution satellite data. In this way the detailed analysis of forest composition can reveal a detailed picture of the ancient settlements that lie beneath it. Preliminary examinations using this technique have been very successful and we are refining these techniques in order to efficiently comprehend the details of Ancient Maya settlement in the Lowlands.

Sever, Thomas L.↗

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Evolution of Government and Industrial Partnerships to Open the Space Frontier

If the logical extension of the current exploration program is to develop self-sustaining settlements on the Moon and Mars over the next few centuries, then there is a path that takes civilization from its current one planet existence to a multi-world future. By considering the far term goal of space settlements as a desired endpoint and using the current state as a starting point, the policy drivers and potential pathways to the goal of sustainable space settlements can be explored. This paper describes a three-phased evolution of government and industrial partnerships from current day relationships to a time when there are sustainable settlements in space. Phase I details the current state government-led exploration while Phase III describes a desired endpoint of self-sufficient settlements in space. Phase II is an important transition phase, which acts as a bridge between now and the future. This paper discusses the critical evolution that must take place in two key areas to ensure a thriving future in space; space transportation and the right to use space property and resources. This paper focuses on the enabling role of government necessary to achieve United States (U.S.) goals for space exploration and open the frontier.

Martin, Gary L.↗

Quantitative Evaluation of Top Coal Caving Methods at the Working Face of Extra‐Thick Coal Seams Based on the Random Medium Theory

Adopting an effective top coal caving method is the key to enhancing coal recovery and reducing gangue content for the fully mechanized top coal caving working face with extra‐thick coal seams. In this study, the movement of coal particles generated during top coal caving is considered to follow a normal distribution. Then, the caving body and coal‐rock settlement along the working face during the caving process are studied based on both the random media theory and probability theory. Accordingly, the optimal caving interval and caving sequences are determined, and a novel interval symmetrical coal caving method is proposed. The proposed method is systematically verified with results from physical similarity tests, and different caving methods are assessed by field tests. The results show the following: (1) The coal‐rock settlement and the caving body demonstrate clear axial symmetrical features along the working face; the size of the caving body increases as the caving height grows and its shape turns progressively from semicircular to semielliptical with a lower foot of the coal‐rock settlement. (2) The caving interval is derived using the sum of the radii of the coal‐rock settlement curves formed by the two largest caving bodies. (3) The symmetrical caving approach provides a symmetrical space for the subsequent movement of the broken top coal, which enables a uniform development of the caving body. (4) Compared with the traditional sequential coal caving method with the same number of supports, the interval symmetrical caving method results in a 21.7% of coal production increase, 17% caving rate promotion, and a shortened caving time by 23.4%. (5) The interval symmetrical caving method is found to improve the controllability of the caving process at the fully mechanized top coal caving working face. In general, this work presents a theoretical approach to select the optimal caving methods for the fully mechanized caving working face in extra‐thick coal seams for an improved production efficiency of the work face. The results of this study can also provide theoretical significance and referencing value for quantitative analyses of the coal caving methods for work faces with similar geological conditions.

Jiulin, Shi (ORCID:0000000155819062)↗

Wholesale Electricity Analysis via Simulation & Learning Experiments (WEASLE): Platform Development and Pilot Competition

This document reports the development of the Wholesale Electricity Analysis via Simulation and Learning Experiments (WEASLE) platform and the pilot competition that was conducted to test the platform. Due to the increasing reliance on variable renewable energy resources for bulk power, the pilot competition, called the Energy Storage Participation Algorithm Competition (ESPA-Comp), was used to test the effect of various market designs on storage utilization and market efficiency. Basic details of the platform are provided, including an overview of the market clearing engine, the battery dispatch and degradation models, electric grid topology and resource mix, and software architecture. Two market designs were tested: a two-settlement market analogous to typical ISO design today, and a multi-settlement market that allows additional forward-trading periods during the real-time market. Results from the pilot competition show that the storage bidding problem is nontrivial and is well suited for future challenges. We find that: 1) all four teams utilized different approaches to the bidding problem, 2) different methodological approaches led to substantially different offer behaviors, 3) resource profits are clustered by team and methodological approach, 4) simulated offers reduced market surplus by about 0.5%, 5) substantially different prices between two-settlement and multi-settlement markets albeit minimal difference in overall market surplus.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A goal and strategy for human exploration of the moon and Mars

Eventual settlement of the solar system, beginning with the moon and Mars, is proposed, and a strategy for the exploration of and initial settlement of the moon and Mars, based on the model of European settlement of the Americas, is discussed. Strategies suggest an allocation of functions between humans and telerobots to conduct the exploration and initial settlement.

Pivirotto, Donna Shirley↗

Space and the Frontier Mythos: A Re-Examination

Some modern space philosophies emphasize the historical parallels between the conquest of the Martian frontier and the expansion into the American West. These parallels are used as a rationale for planning the exploration and large-scale settlement of Mars. However, many of these historical allegories are in error. Vast differences exist between the geographical realities of Mars and the western frontier. Furthermore, westward expansion took place within a set of political, economic, social, and technological circumstances that are unlikely to be repeated in Martian exploration. The physical conditions and geographical realities of the Martian frontier in exploration and settlement terms are closer to the Antarctic continent. The American West, which had been inhabited by humans for thousands of years, offered a relative degree of comfort to new arrivals. We do not find large numbers of people migrating to the Canadian High Arctic or other polar regions to live. The inhospitable nature of these polar regions are the major limitation to the human desire to live there. The conquest of the American West took place within the context of a complex set of circumstances. Americans believed they had a 'manifest destiny' to extend their civilization across the continent. Many people also went west in search of a better life: for gold, land or other opportunities. The technology also existed at that point to allow large numbers of people to head west on their own at minimal cost. The settlement of Mars will be far different. It is for these reasons that we believe Antarctica is a much better analog for the exploration of Mars. Therefore, Martian exploration and settlement plans should be adjusted accordingly.

Cockell, Charles S.↗

Space Resources

Space resources must be used to support life on the Moon and exploration of Mars. Just as the pioneers applied the tools they brought with them to resources they found along the way rather than trying to haul all their needs over a long supply line, so too must space travelers apply their high technology tools to local resources. The pioneers refilled their water barrels at each river they forded; moonbase inhabitants may use chemical reactors to combine hydrogen brought from Earth with oxygen found in lunar soil to make their water. The pioneers sought temporary shelter under trees or in the lee of a cliff and built sod houses as their first homes on the new land; settlers of the Moon may seek out lava tubes for their shelter or cover space station modules with lunar regolith for radiation protection. The pioneers moved further west from their first settlements, using wagons they had built from local wood and pack animals they had raised; space explorers may use propellant made at a lunar base to take them on to Mars. The concept for this report was developed at a NASA-sponsored summer study in 1984. The program was held on the Scripps campus of the University of California at San Diego (UCSD), under the auspices of the American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE). It was jointly managed under the California Space Inst. and the NASA Johnson Space Center, under the direction of the Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) at NASA Headquarters. The study participants (listed in the addendum) included a group of 18 university teachers and researchers (faculty fellows) who were present for the entire 10-week period and a larger group of attendees from universities, Government, and industry who came for a series of four 1-week workshops. The organization of this report follows that of the summer study. Space Resources consists of a brief overview and four detailed technical volumes: (1) Scenarios; (2) Energy, Power, and Transport; (3) Materials; (4) Social Concerns. Although many of the included papers got their impetus from workshop discussions, most have been written since then, thus allowing the authors to base new applications on established information and tested technology. All these papers have been updated to include the authors' current work. This overview, drafted by faculty fellow Jim Burke, describes the findings of the summer study, as participants explored the use of space resources in the development of future space activities and defined the necessary research and development that must precede the practical utilization of these resources. Space resources considered included lunar soil, oxygen derived from lunar soil, material retrieved from near-Earth asteroids, abundant sunlight, low gravity, and high vacuum. The study participants analyzed the direct use of these resources, the potential demand for products from them, the techniques for retrieving and processing space resources, the necessary infrastructure, and the economic tradeoffs. This is certainly not the first report to urge the utilization of space resources in the development of space activities. In fact, Space Resources may be seen as the third of a trilogy of NASA Special Publications reporting such ideas arising from similar studies. It has been preceded by Space Settlements: A Design Study (NASA SP-413) and Space Resources and Space Settlements (NASA SP-428). And other, contemporaneous reports have responded to the same themes. The National Commission on Space, led by Thomas Paine, in Pioneering the Space Frontier, and the NASA task force led by astronaut Sally Ride, in Leadership and America's Future in Space, also emphasize expansion of the space Infrastructure; more detailed exploration of the Moon, Mars, and asteroids; an early start on the development of the technology necessary for using space resources; and systematic development of the skills necessary for long-term human presence in space. Our report does not represent any Government-authorized view or official NASA policy. NASA's official response to these challenging opportunities must be found in the reports of its Office of Exploration, which was established in 1987. That office's report, released in November 1989, of a 90-day study of possible plans for human exploration of the Moon and Mars is NASA's response to the new initiative proposed by President Bush on July 20, 1989, the 20th anniversary of the Apollo 11 landing on the Moon: "First, for the coming decade, for the 1990s, Space Station Freedom, our critical next step in all our space endeavors. And next, for the new century, back to the Moon, back to the future, and this time, back to stay. And then a journey into tomorrow, a journey to another planet, a manned mission to Mars." This report, Space Resources, offers substantiation for NASA's bid to carry out that new initiative.

McKay, Mary Fae↗

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗