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Eventual settlement of the solar system, beginning with the moon and Mars, is proposed, and a strategy for the exploration of and initial settlement of the moon and Mars, based on the model of European settlement of the Americas, is discussed. Strategies suggest an allocation of functions between humans and telerobots to conduct the exploration and initial settlement.
Some modern space philosophies emphasize the historical parallels between the conquest of the Martian frontier and the expansion into the American West. These parallels are used as a rationale for planning the exploration and large-scale settlement of Mars. However, many of these historical allegories are in error. Vast differences exist between the geographical realities of Mars and the western frontier. Furthermore, westward expansion took place within a set of political, economic, social, and technological circumstances that are unlikely to be repeated in Martian exploration. The physical conditions and geographical realities of the Martian frontier in exploration and settlement terms are closer to the Antarctic continent. The American West, which had been inhabited by humans for thousands of years, offered a relative degree of comfort to new arrivals. We do not find large numbers of people migrating to the Canadian High Arctic or other polar regions to live. The inhospitable nature of these polar regions are the major limitation to the human desire to live there. The conquest of the American West took place within the context of a complex set of circumstances. Americans believed they had a 'manifest destiny' to extend their civilization across the continent. Many people also went west in search of a better life: for gold, land or other opportunities. The technology also existed at that point to allow large numbers of people to head west on their own at minimal cost. The settlement of Mars will be far different. It is for these reasons that we believe Antarctica is a much better analog for the exploration of Mars. Therefore, Martian exploration and settlement plans should be adjusted accordingly.
Space resources must be used to support life on the Moon and exploration of Mars. Just as the pioneers applied the tools they brought with them to resources they found along the way rather than trying to haul all their needs over a long supply line, so too must space travelers apply their high technology tools to local resources. The pioneers refilled their water barrels at each river they forded; moonbase inhabitants may use chemical reactors to combine hydrogen brought from Earth with oxygen found in lunar soil to make their water. The pioneers sought temporary shelter under trees or in the lee of a cliff and built sod houses as their first homes on the new land; settlers of the Moon may seek out lava tubes for their shelter or cover space station modules with lunar regolith for radiation protection. The pioneers moved further west from their first settlements, using wagons they had built from local wood and pack animals they had raised; space explorers may use propellant made at a lunar base to take them on to Mars. The concept for this report was developed at a NASA-sponsored summer study in 1984. The program was held on the Scripps campus of the University of California at San Diego (UCSD), under the auspices of the American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE). It was jointly managed under the California Space Inst. and the NASA Johnson Space Center, under the direction of the Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) at NASA Headquarters. The study participants (listed in the addendum) included a group of 18 university teachers and researchers (faculty fellows) who were present for the entire 10-week period and a larger group of attendees from universities, Government, and industry who came for a series of four 1-week workshops. The organization of this report follows that of the summer study. Space Resources consists of a brief overview and four detailed technical volumes: (1) Scenarios; (2) Energy, Power, and Transport; (3) Materials; (4) Social Concerns. Although many of the included papers got their impetus from workshop discussions, most have been written since then, thus allowing the authors to base new applications on established information and tested technology. All these papers have been updated to include the authors' current work. This overview, drafted by faculty fellow Jim Burke, describes the findings of the summer study, as participants explored the use of space resources in the development of future space activities and defined the necessary research and development that must precede the practical utilization of these resources. Space resources considered included lunar soil, oxygen derived from lunar soil, material retrieved from near-Earth asteroids, abundant sunlight, low gravity, and high vacuum. The study participants analyzed the direct use of these resources, the potential demand for products from them, the techniques for retrieving and processing space resources, the necessary infrastructure, and the economic tradeoffs. This is certainly not the first report to urge the utilization of space resources in the development of space activities. In fact, Space Resources may be seen as the third of a trilogy of NASA Special Publications reporting such ideas arising from similar studies. It has been preceded by Space Settlements: A Design Study (NASA SP-413) and Space Resources and Space Settlements (NASA SP-428). And other, contemporaneous reports have responded to the same themes. The National Commission on Space, led by Thomas Paine, in Pioneering the Space Frontier, and the NASA task force led by astronaut Sally Ride, in Leadership and America's Future in Space, also emphasize expansion of the space Infrastructure; more detailed exploration of the Moon, Mars, and asteroids; an early start on the development of the technology necessary for using space resources; and systematic development of the skills necessary for long-term human presence in space. Our report does not represent any Government-authorized view or official NASA policy. NASA's official response to these challenging opportunities must be found in the reports of its Office of Exploration, which was established in 1987. That office's report, released in November 1989, of a 90-day study of possible plans for human exploration of the Moon and Mars is NASA's response to the new initiative proposed by President Bush on July 20, 1989, the 20th anniversary of the Apollo 11 landing on the Moon: "First, for the coming decade, for the 1990s, Space Station Freedom, our critical next step in all our space endeavors. And next, for the new century, back to the Moon, back to the future, and this time, back to stay. And then a journey into tomorrow, a journey to another planet, a manned mission to Mars." This report, Space Resources, offers substantiation for NASA's bid to carry out that new initiative.
This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.
Humankind may only have a short window of 50 years to become a space-faring civilization, after which time the opportunity to do so may become too difficult or impractical to pursue. Current policies for space exploration and infrastructure development implicitly assume a gradualistic approach to technology, budgets, and mission execution -- the common thought has been that there will be plenty of time in humankind's future to become a space-based species, and whatever we are unable to accomplish will be borne by the generations that follow. However, considering natural events, available energy, and human tendencies, the timing to make the most effective effort to achieve multi-planet status might be now, before momentum is lost and we become distracted by Peak Oil and changing energy economies -- restarting a space program after such turmoil may be more difficult than would be practical without cheap, storable, high-energy density petroleum. "Space-faring civilization" is defined as an economically profitable space-based economy that demands the presence of humans off-world in order to sustain a high level of prosperity. An initial foothold for a space-based economy that would fit within the 50-year window might include Earth dependence on rare-earth elements or other hard-to-obtain minerals mined from moons or asteroids, or a permanent settlement on another planet. Using published sources, notional mass and energy requirements for a minimal self-sustaining Mars settlement is calculated, and the number of launch vehicles discussed. Setting the launch schedule to match that of current NASA projections, it could take more than 26 years of semi-annual launches to build up such a self-sustaining human settlement -- a cost and commitment that has not been acknowledged nor planned for. Considering the time required to establish a multi-planet species, this paper frames the required window of decision that, if not taken, could condemn the species to Earth subject to whatever natural or human-made calamities that endanger single-planet civilizations.
In the Kavango-Zambezi area of southern Africa, three million people live within areas frequently traveled by free-ranging elephants. As the region continues to develop rapidly, urban and agricultural settlements further encroach upon the land that these elephants use. As elephants come into more frequent contact with urban and agricultural areas, human populations face financial loss through crop damage and the potential for injury from direct conflict with elephants. Elephant populations are also at risk of injuries from conflict as well as illness related to the consumption of waste. In order to implement human-elephant conflict mitigation strategies, local conservation groups need to be informed on best practices for coexistence. This project aided The Ecoexist Project and Connected Conservation in understanding the ecological factors that drive elephant movement into human settlements and provided Earth observation data to support conflict management in the future. The team used Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data to create land use land cover maps and calculate vegetation indices, and used TerraClimate data to analyze drought conditions. These classified maps allowed us to display a time series of human settlement from 1990 to the present and were made explorable alongside other environmental variables in an updated Google Earth Engine (GEE) tool. This project also provided heat maps that show the risk of human-elephant conflict based on historical data of HEC locations. This analysis will provide support for conservation experts in determining best practices for future mitigation and prevention of human-elephant conflict.
The concepts presented by K. E. Tsiolkovsky concerning the construction of orbital space stations are cited. Tsiolkovsky, a Russian scientist and founder of astronautics, substantiated these ideas at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century. Considered settlements outside the earth were proposed feasible using solar energy. The substance of numerous asteroids would be used as construction materials for space settlements and rockets. Extraordinary farsightedness was shown by Tsiolkovsky when comparisons of his projects with those of modern orbital stations are made.
A systematic study of the potentially active volcanoes in the Central Andes (14 deg S to 28 deg S) was carried out on the basis of Landsat Thematic Mapper images which provided consistent coverage of the area. More than 60 major volcanoes were identified as potentially active, as compared to 16 that are listed in the Catalog of Active Volcanoes of the World (Casertano, 1963; Hantke and Parodi, 1966). Most of these volcanoes are large (up to 6000 m in height) composite cones. Some of them could threaten nearby settlements, especially those in southern Peru, where the volcanoes rise above deep canyons with settlements along them.
With a view of investigating possible economic benefits that a permanent lunar settlement might provide to the near-earth space infrastructures, consideration was given to the ilmenite-rich pyroclastic deposits as sources of oxygen (for use as a propellant) and He-3 (for nuclear fusion fuel). This paper demonstrates that ilmenite-rich pyroclastic deposits would be excellent sources of a wide variety of valuable elements besides O and He-3, including Fe, Ti, H2, N, C, S, Cu, Zn, Cd, Bi, and Pb. It is shown that several ilmenite-rich pyroclastic deposits of regional extent exist on the lunar surface. The suitability of regional pyroclastic deposits for lunar mining operations, construction activities, and the establishment of permanent lunar settlements is examined.
A foundation design for a 122 m diameter dish-type radio telescope on the moon is presented. The 1.2 m wide and 43 m diameter circular strip footing was analyzed for settlement due to compaction during installation and also for total and differential settlement under in-service laods. An axisymmetrical finite element code of the uppdated Lagrangian formulation was used. Interface slip elements were also used. The nonlinear hyperbolic stress-strain model parameters for the regolith were derived from load-deflection characteristics of astronauts' bootprints and the Rover tracks.
In view of the superior environmental and operational conditions that are thought to exist in lava tubes, popular visions of permanent settlements built upon the lunar surface may prove to be entirely romantic. The factors that will ultimately come together to determine the design of a lunar base are complex and interrelated, and they call for a radical architectural solution. Whether lunar surface-deployed superstructures can answer these issues is called into question. One particularly troublesome concern in any lunar base design is the need for vast amounts of space, and the ability of man-made structures to provide such volumes in a reliable pressurized habitat is doubtful. An examination of several key environmental design issues suggests that the alternative mode of subselene development may offer the best opportunity for an enduring and humane settlement.
When Apollo astronauts landed on the Moon, the first generation of lunar bases was established. They consisted essentially of a lunar module and related hardware capable of housing two astronauts for not more than several days. Second generation lunar bases are being developed, and further infrastructure, such as space station, orbital transfer, and reusable lander vehicles will be necessary, as prolonged stay on the Moon is required for exploration, research, and construction for the establishment of a permanent human settlement there. Human life in these habitats could be sustained for months, dependent on a continual flow of life-support supplies from Earth. Third-generation lunar bases will come into being as self sufficiency of human settlements becomes feasible. Regeneration of water, oxygen production, and development of indigenous construction materials from lunar resources will be necessary. Greenhouses will grow food supplies in engineered biospheres. Assured protection from solar flares and cosmic radiation must be provided, as well as provision for survival under meteor showers, or the threat of meteorite impact. All these seem to be possible within the second decade of the next century. Thus, the builders of Selenia, the first of the third-generation lunar bases are born today. During the last two years students from the School of Architecture of the University of Puerto Rico have studied the problems that relate to habitability for prolonged stay in extraterrestrial space. An orbital personnel transport to Mars developed originally by the Aerospace Engineering Department of the University of Michigan was investigated and habitability criteria for evaluation of human space habitats were proposed. An important finding from that study was that the necessary rotational diameter of the vessel has to be on the order of two kilometers to ensure comfort for humans under the artificial gravity conditions necessary to maintain physiological well being of passengers, beyond the level of mere survival.
Through the use of airborne and satellite imagery we are improving our ability to investigate ancient Maya settlement, subsistence, and landscape modification in this dense forest region. Today the area is threatened by encroaching settlement and deforestation. However, it was in this region that the Maya civilization began, flourished, and abruptly disappeared for unknown reasons in the 9th century AD. At the time of their collapse they had attained one of the highest population densities in human history. How the Maya were able to successfully manage water and feed this dense population is not well understood at this time. A NASA-funded project used remote sensing technology to investigate large seasonal swamps (bajos) that make up 40 percent of the landscape. Through the use of remote sensing, ancient Maya features such as sites, roadways, canals and water reservoirs have been detected and verified through ground reconnaissance. The results of this preliminary research cast new light on the adaptation of the ancient Maya to their environment. Microenvironmental variation within the wetlands was elucidated and the different vegetation associations identified in the satellite imagery. More than 70 new archeological sites within and at the edges of the bajo were mapped and tested. Modification of the landscape by the Maya in the form of dams and reservoirs in the Holmul River and its tributaries and possible drainage canals in bajos was demonstrated. The use of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM), one-meter IKONOS satellite imagery, as well as high resolution airborne STAR-3i radar imagery--2.5 meter backscatter/10 meter Digital Elevation Model (DEM)--are opening new possibilities for understanding how a civilization was able to survive for centuries upon a karat topographic landscape. This understanding is critical for the current population that is currently experiencing rapid population growth and destroying the landscape through nontraditional farming and grazing techniques, resulting in socioeconomic problems.
Forest understory fires are an increasingly important cause of forest impoverishment in Ammonia, but little is known of the landscape characteristics and climatic phenomena that determine their occurrence. We developed empirical functions relating the occurrence of understory fires to landscape features near Paragominas, a 35- yr-old ranching and logging center in eastern Ammonia. An historical sequence of maps of forest understory fire was created based on field interviews With local farmers and Landsat TM images. Several landscape features that might explain spatial variations in the occurrence of understory fires were also mapped and co-registered for each of the sample dates, including: forest fragment size and shape, forest impoverishment through logging and understory fires, source of ignition (settlements and charcoal pits), roads, forest edges, and others. The spatial relationship between forest understory fire and each landscape characteristic was tested by regression analyses. Fire probability models were then developed for various combinations of landscape characteristics. The analyses were conducted separately for years of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are associated with severe drought in eastern Amazonia, and non-ENS0 years. Most (91 %) of the forest area that burned during the 10-yr sequence caught fire during ENSO years, when severe drought may have increased both forest flammability and the escape of agricultural management fires. Forest understory fires were associated with forest edges, as reported in previous studies from Ammonia. But the strongest predictor of forest fire was the percentage of the forest fragment that had been previously logged or burned. Forest fragment size, distance to charcoal pits, distance to agricultural settlement, proximity to forest edge, and distance to roads were also correlated with forest understory fire. Logistic regression models using information on fragment degradation and distance to ignition sources accurately predicted the location of lss than 80% of the forest fires observed during the ENSO event of 1997- 1998. In this Amazon landscape, forest understory fire is a complex function of several variables that influence both the flammability and ignition exposure of the forest.
The utilization of space resources is necessary to not only foster the growth of human activities in space, but is essential to the President s vision of a "sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond." The distribution of resources will shape planning permanent settlements by affecting decisions about where to locate a settlement. Mapping the location of such resources, however, is not the limiting factor in selecting a site for a lunar base. It is indecision about which resources to use that leaves the location uncertain. A wealth of remotely sensed data exists that can be used to identify targets for future detailed exploration. Thus, the future of space resource utilization pre-dominantly rests upon developing a strategy for resource exploration and efficient methods of extraction.
This paper discusses the connectivity between in-space propulsion and in-space fabrication/repair and is based upon a workshop presentation by Les Johnson, manager of the In-Space Propulsion (ISP) Technology Project at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Ala.. Technologies under study by ISP include aerocapture, advanced solar-electric propulsion, solar-thermal propulsion, advanced chemical propulsion, tethers and solar-photon sails. These propulsion systems are all approaching technology readiness levels (TRLs) at which they can be considered for application in space-science and exploration missions. Historically, human frontiers have expanded as people have learned to live off the land in new environments and to exploit local resorces. With this expansion, frontier settlements have required development of transportation improvements to carry tools and manufactured products to and from the frontier. It is demonstrated how ISP technologies will assist in the development of the solar-system frontier. In-space fabrication and repair will both require and assist the development of ISP propulsion systems, whether humans choose to settle planetary surfaces or to exploit resources of small Solar System bodies. As was true for successful terrestrial pioneers, in-space settlement and exploitation will require sophisticated surveys of inner and outer Solar System objects. ISP technologies will contribute to the success of these surveys, as well as to the efforts to retrieve Solar System resources. In a similar fashion, the utility of ISP products will be greatly enhanced by the technologies of in-space repair and fabrication. As in-space propulsion, fabrication and repair develop, human civilization may expand well beyond the Earth. In the future, small human communities (preceded by robotic explorers) may utilize these techniques to set sail f or the nearest stars.
By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.
The rapid development of the productive processes after World War II extended human settlements into new ecological niches. Advances in Life Sciences played a decisive role supporting the establishment of human presence in areas of the planet where human life could have not existed otherwise. The evolution of life support systems, and the fabrication of new materials and technologies has enabled humans to inhabit Polar Regions, ocean surfaces and depths; and to leave Earth and occupy Low Earth Orbit. By the end of the 20 th Century, stations in the Antarctic and Arctic, off shore oil platforms, submarines, and space stations had become the ultimate demonstration of human ability to engineer habitats at Earth extreme environments and outer space. As we enter the 21st Century, the next development of human settlements will occur through the exploration of the Moon, Mars, and beyond. The major risks of space exploration derive from long exposure of humans and other life systems to radiation, microgravity, isolation and confinement, dependence on artificial life support systems, and unknown effects (e.g., altered magnetic fields, ultrahigh vacuum on bacteria, fungi, etc.). Countermeasures will require a complete characterization of human and other biological systems adaptation processes. To sustain life in transit and on the surface of the Moon and Mars will require a balance of spacecraft, cargo, astronaut crews, and the use of in situ resources. Limitations on the number of crewmembers, payloads, and the barrenness of the terrain require a novel design for the capabilities needed in transit and at exploration outpost sites. The planned destinations have resources that may be accessed to produce materials, food, shelter, power, and to provide an environment compatible with successful occupation of longterm exploration sites. Once more, the advancements of Life Sciences will be essential for the design of interplanetary voyages and planetary surface operations. This presentation delineates the role of Life Sciences and its frontiers, especially Cell Science, in the context of human exploration. Life support systems, food production, and medical equipment encompass many of vital aspects related to the new vision for NASA.