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At least 73 records · Page 4

Positive cloud-to-ground lightning flashes in severe storms

The occurrence of cloud-to-ground flashes that effectively lower positive charge to earth (+CG flash) over flat terrain has been documented in the mature stage of severe thunderstorms. Of the 31 documented +CG flashes, most had only one return stroke. Zero-to-peak rise times for the strokes averaged 7 microsec. The +CG flashes averaged 520 ms in duration, with 25 percent lasting more than 800 ms. Many of these had field changes suggestive of continuing current. Positive flashes have been observed to emanate from several regions of severe storms: high on the back of the main storm tower, through the wall cloud, and from the downshear anvil. Visually most of these positive flashes have emanated from high in the storm, and acoustic mapping of two shows thunder sources to a height of about 15 km.

Rust, W. D.↗

Severe storms forecast systems

Two research tasks are described: (1) the improvement and enhancement of an existing mesoscale numerical simulation system, and (2) numerical diagnostic studies associated with an individual case of severe storm development (April 10, 1979 in the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma).

Kaplan, M.↗

Analysis and prediction of severe storms environment

Using the special data set collected in Project SESAME (1979), an analysis and modeling efforts to test the hypothesis that a unique combination of terrain, boundary layer processes, and synoptic-scale circulations result in a preferred region of latent instability that determines the location of severe thunderstorm outbreaks are described. Because the relevant circulations are large scale, it is hypothesized that a model that contains the necessary physics will be able to predict the location of these severe storms at least 24 h in advance. Through detailed analysis of the SESAME data set and a series of numerical forecasts, the above hypothesis is being tested and it is hoped that quantitative understanding of the processes leading to the development of severe thunderstorms in the midwestern United States will be gained.

Carlson, T. N.↗

Severe storm initiation and development from satellite infrared imagery and Rawinsonde data

The geographical distribution of potential temperatures, mixing ratio, and streamlines of flow patterns at 850, 700, and 500 mb heights are used to understand the prestorm convection and the horizontal convergence of moisture. From the analysis of 21 tornadoes the following conclusions are reached: (1) Strong horizontal convergence of moisture appeared at the 850, 700, and 500 mb levels in the area 12 hours before the storm formation; (2) An abundantly moist atmosphere below 3 km (700 mb) becomes convectively unstable during the time period between 12 and 24 hours before the initiation of the severe storms; (3) Strong winds veering with height with direction parallel to the movement of a dryline, surface fronts, etc; (4) During a 36-hour period, a tropopause height in the areas of interest is lowest at the time of tornadic cloud formation; (5) A train of gravity waves is detected before and during the cloud formation period. Rapid-scan infrared imagery provides near real-time information on the life cycle of the storm which can be summarized as follows: (1) Enhanced convection produced an overshooting cloud top penetrating above the tropopause, making the mass density of the overshooting cloud much greater than the mass density of the surrounding air; (2) The overshooting cloud top collapsed at the end of the mature stage of the cloud development; (3) The tornado touchdown followed the collapse of the overshooting cloud top.

Hung, R. J.↗

Dynamics of severe storms through the study of thermospheric-tropospheric coupling

Atmospheric acoustic-gravity waves associated with severe local thunderstorms, tornadoes, and hurricanes can be studied through the coupling between the thermosphere and the troposphere. Reverse group ray tracing computations of acoustic-gravity waves, observed by an ionospheric Doppler sounder array, show that the wave sources are in the neighborhood of storm systems and the waves are excited prior to the storms. It is suggested that the overshooting and ensuing collapse of convective turrets may be responsible for generating the acoustic-gravity waves observed. The results of this study also show that the study of wave-wave resonant interactions may be a potential tool for investigating the dynamical behavior of severe storm systems using ionospheric observations of atmospheric acoustic-gravity waves associated with severe storms.

Hung, R. J.↗

Lightning as an indication of storm severity

There is a substantial case for the theory that cloud electrification is related primarily to strong convection and the sizeable relative air motion that it implies; therefore, the electrification and subsequent discharge rates can be related to the air motion environment of thunderstorms. The isoceraunic contour map used by the WMO for observing and measuring thunderstorm occurrence contains no information on flash rates, flash density, flash relationship to storm severity, or flash variation with meteorological environment. A constant-view geosynchronous lightning mapper would permit simultaneous studies of the lightning discharge patterns and the meteorological environment of storms, thus establishing whether or not there is a reliable enough relationship to use the observed flash rates and characteristics as supplemental guidance for storm forecast refinement.

Dodge, J. C.↗

VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) simulation experiment for a severe storm environment

Radiance fields were simulated for prethunderstorm environments in Oklahoma to demonstrate three points: (1) significant moisture gradients can be seen directly in images of the VISSIR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) channels; (2) temperature and moisture profiles can be retrieved from VAS radiances with sufficient accuracy to be useful for mesoscale analysis of a severe storm environment; and (3) the quality of VAS mesoscale soundings improves with conditioning by local weather statistics. The results represent the optimum retrievability of mesoscale information from VAS radiance without the use of ancillary data. The simulations suggest that VAS data will yield the best soundings when a human being classifies the scene, picks relatively clear areas for retrieval, and applies a "local" statistical data base to resolve the ambiguities of satellite observations in favor of the most probable atmospheric structure.

Chesters, D.↗

Total Lightning Activity Associated with Tornadic Storms

Severe storms often have high flash rates (in excess of one flash per second) and are dominated by intracloud lightning activity. In addition to the extraordinary flash rates, there is a second distinguishing lightning characteristic of severe storms that seems to be important. When the total lightning history is examined, one finds sudden increases in the lightning rate, which we refer to as lightning "jumps," that precede the occurrence of severe weather by ten or more minutes. These jumps are typically 30-60 flashes/min, and are easily identified as anomalously large derivatives in the flash rate. This relationship is associated with updraft intensification and updraft strength is an important factor in storm severity (through the accumulation of condensate aloft and the stretching of vorticity). In several cases, evidence for diminishment of midlevel rotation and the descent of angular momentum from aloft is present prior to the appearance of the surface tornado. Based on our experience with severe and tornadic storms in Central Florida, we believe the total lightning may augment the more traditional use of NEXRAD radars and storm spotters. However, a more rigorous relation of these jumps to storm kinematics is needed if we are to apply total lightning in a decision tree that leads to improved warning lead times and decreased false alarm rates.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

Ionospheric and satellite observations for studying the dynamic behavior of typhoons and the detection of severe storms and tsunamis

Atmospheric acoustic-gravity waves associated with severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, typhoons (hurricanes) and tsunamis can be studied through the coupling between the ionosphere and the troposphere. Reverse ray tracing computations of acoustic-gravity waves observed by an ionospheric Doppler sounder array show that wave sources are in the nearby storm systems and that the waves are excited prior to the storms. Results show that ionospheric observations, together with satellite observations, can contribute to the understanding of the dynamical behavior of typhoons, severe storms and tsunamis.

Hung, R. J.↗

Wallops severe storms measurement capability

Some of the instrumentation system used in support of NASA'S Storm Hazards Program are described. These systems include the Radar Atmospheric Research Facility (RARF) with its Space Range Radar and a near real time display from the National Weather Service WSR-57 radar, a lightning detection and ranging system (LDAR), and a Ryan Stormscope. The RARF system can detect, track, and quantify the properties of severe storms. Simultaneous measurements in the UHF (70 cm), S (10 cm), and C (5 cm) bands can be made of clouds and precipitation to deduce particle size and characteristics, including quantitive cross sections of individual hailstones and raindrops. Relative attenuation at these wavelenghts can be used to calculate path integrated rainfall and water content. The track of an instrument aircraft can be displayed on S-band reflectivity map of the individual storm cells. The LDAR system can determine the location of lightning discharges in real time and measure and record the electric field waveform for further study. The Ryan Stormscope can detect and range lightning out to 320 kilometers.

Carr, R. E.↗

Severe storm identification with satellite microwave radiometry: An initial investigation with Nimbus-7 SMMR data

The severe weather characteristics of convective storms as observed by the Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) are investigated. Low 37 GHz brightness temperatures (due to scattering of upwelling radiation by precipitation size ice) are related to the occurrence of severe weather (large hail, strong winds or wind damage, tornadoes and funnel clouds) within one hour of the satellite observation time. During 1979 and 1980 over the United States there were 263 storms which had very cold 37 GHz signatures. Of these storms 15% were severe. The SMMR detected hail, wind, and tornadic storms equally well. Critical Success Indices (CSI's) of 0.32, 0.48, and 0.38 are achieved for the thresholding of severe vs. nonsevere low brightness temperature events during 1979, 1980, and the two years combined, respectively. Such scores are comparable to skill scores for early radar detection methods. These results suggest that a future geostationary passive microwave imaging capability at 37 GHz, with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution, would allow the detection of severe convective storms. This capability would provide a useful complement to radar, especially in areas not covered by radar.

Spencer, R. W.↗

An evaluation of VAS-derived severe storm parameters

The Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) carried by U.S. meteorological satellites in GEO yield sounding parameters applicable to severe local storm forecasting. Discrepancies between VAS and radiosonde parameters are noted to increase with the number of computational steps required. It is found that VAS-derived parameters incorporating observed surface data yield results superior to those of parameters that do not incorporate them. VAS-derived parameters did not represent consistent improvements over 12-hour limited-area fine-mesh model numerical forecasts.

Olson, Steven R.↗

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array: Recent Severe Storm Observations and Future Prospects

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array became operational in November 2001 as a principal component of a severe weather test bed to infuse new science and technology into the short-term forecasting of severe and hazardous weather, principally within nearby National Weather Service forecast offices. Since the installation of the LMA, it has measured the total lightning activity of a large number of severe weather events, including three supercell tornado outbreaks, two supercell hailstorm events, and numerous microburst-producing storms and ordinary non-severe thunderstorms. The key components of evolving storm morphology examined are the time rate-of-change (temporal trending) of storm convective and precipitation characteristics that can be diagnosed in real-time using NEXRAD WSR-88D Doppler radar (echo growth and decay, precipitation structures and velocity features, outflow boundaries), LMA (total lightning flash rate and its trend) and National Lightning Detection Network (cloud-to- ground lightning, its polarity and trends). For example, in a transitional season supercell tornado outbreak, peak total flash rates for typical supercells in Tennessee reached 70-100/min, and increases in the total flash rate occurred during storm intensification as much as 20-25 min prior to at least some of the tornadoes. The most intense total flash rate measured during this outbreak (over 800 flashes/min) occurred in a storm in Alabama. In the case of a severe summertime pulse thunderstorm in North Alabama, the peak total flash rate reached 300/min, with a strong increase in total lightning evident some 9 min before damaging winds were observed at the surface. In this paper we provide a sampling of LMA observations and products during severe weather events to illustrate the capability of the system, and discuss the prospects for improving the short-term forecasting of convective weather using total lightning data.

Goodman, S. J.↗

UAS Applications for Hurricane Science, Hurrican and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3)

Earth Science Industry Update: UAS Applications for Hurricane Science Unmanned systems can significantly transform hurricane observations and monitoring, improving our knowledge about and ability to forecast storm formation, track, and intensity change. NASA's use of the Global Hawk has demonstrated the scientific value of this platform and provided a proof-of-concept for operational applications. However, science flight operations face several challenges and constraints. In this session, learn about how NASA adapted the Global Hawk to do science; How NASA conducts its hurricane missions, and some of the challenges and constraints they face; Science results from NASA's recent hurricane field campaigns using the Global Hawk. How assimilation of dropsonde and radar data into weather prediction models may improve forecast accuracy; Other Earth science problems that could be addressed with Global Hawks.

Hurricane Science↗

A summary of research on mesoscale energetics of severe storm environments

The goals of this research were to better understand interactions between areas of intense convection and their surrounding mesoscale environments by using diagnostic budgets of kinetic (KE) and available potential energy (APE). Three cases of intense convection were examined in detail. 1) Atmospheric Variability Experiments (AVE) carried out on 24 to 25 April 1975 were studied. Synoptic scale data at 3 to 6 hour intervals, contained two mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs). Analyses included total KE budgets and budgets of divergent and rotational components of KE. 2) AVE-Severe Environmental Storms and Mesoscale Experiments (SESAME)-4 carried out on 10 to 11 April 1979 were studied. Synotpic and meso alpha-scale data (250 km spacing, 3 hour intervals), contained the Red River Valley tornado outbreak. Analyses included total KE budgets (separate synoptic and mesoscale version), budgets for the divergent and rotational components, and the generation of APE by diabatic processes. 3) AVE-SESAME 5 studies were carried out on 20 to 31 May 1979. Synoptic and meso beta-scale data (75 km spacing, 1 1/2 to 3 hour intervals), contained a small MCC. Analyses include separate KE budgets for the synotic and meso beta-scales and a water vapor budget. Major findings of these investigations are: (1) The synoptic scale storm environment contains energy conversions and transports that are comparable to those of mature midlatitude cyclones. (2) Energetic in the mesoscale storm environment are often an order of magnitude larger than those in an undisturbed region. (3) Mesoscale wind maxima form in the upper troposphere on the poleward sides of convective areas, whereas speeds decrease south of storm regions.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

The NASA Thunderstorm Observations and Research (ThOR) Mission: Lightning Mapping from Space to Improve the Short-term Forecasting of Severe Storms

The ThOR mission uses a lightning mapping sensor in geostationary Earth orbit to provide continuous observations of thunderstorm activity over the Americas and nearby oceans. The link between lightning activity and cloud updrafts is the basis for total lightning observations indicating the evolving convective intensification and decay of storms. ThOR offers a national operational demonstration of the utility of real-time total lightning mapping for earlier and more reliable identification of potentially severe and hazardous storms. Regional pilot projects have already demonstrated that the dominance in-cloud lightning and increasing in-cloud lash rates are known to precede severe weather at the surface by tens of minutes. ThOR is currently planned for launch in 2005 on a commercial or research satellite. Real-time data will be provided to selected NWS Weather Forecast Offices and National Centers (EMC/AWC/SPC) for evaluation.

Goodman, S. J.↗

Aircraft overflight measurements of midwest severe storms - Implications on geosynchronous satellite interpretations

The instrumented NASA ER-2 aircraft overflew severe convection with IR V features for the first time in the midwest United States during May 1984. Measurements taken by the ER-2 were: visible and IR imagery, high-frequency passive microwave (92, 183 GHz) imagery, nadir lidar backscattered return, and flight altitude information. The May 7 and May 13, 1984 cases are analyzed in detail and the various data sources are combined and compared with GOES imagery. The high resolution aircraft IR imagery shows that thermal couplets are considerably more pronounced than in GOES imagery. In one of the cases (May 7, 1984) the minimum cloud-top IR temperature was located upshear of the overshooting cloud top in the lidar height field. The IR temperatures in the downshear anvils were as much as 5 C warmer than the ambient air temperatures, implying that the upwelling IR radiance comes from about 0.5-1.0 km below the cloud top. The in situ ER-2 measurements of temperature and air velocity 3-4 km above the overshooting tops showed very intense temperature and vertical velocity, perturbations. These perturbations are suggestive of lee waves generated by the overshooting tops or a cold dome above the squall line possibly due to tropopause lifting by the storms.

Heymsfield, Gerald M.↗

The multiple nesting of mesoscale, submesoscale, and nonhydrostatic microscale numerical models for a case of mesocyclogenesis and severe storm development

A fundamental approach involving the integration of two different numerical models over several different spatial mesh lengths is considered. Model I is a hydrostatic, incompressible, and adiabatic primitive (Newtonian) equation set with no boundary layer forcing, i.e., surface heat or moisture flux or external frictional stresses. Typically this model is initialized from conventional radiosonde data and run for a 12-15 hour forecast period over a 40 km horizontal mesh. If phase I of the tornado developmental processes develops, the data is 'frozen' in space and time, interpolated to a 20 km mesh, and integrated for a shorter time period (3 hours) with a shorter time step. Model II is a nonhydrostatic compressible 18-level complement of model I. If model II indicates the development of the intensification of phase V dynamical processes, the data is frozen and interpolated to finer mesh lengths until the tornadic circulation system is approximated

Kaplan, M. L.↗