Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “shape modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Anti-Ultralocality and Plateau Models of Inflation

Anti-ultralocality refers to the growth of spatial gradient terms relative to velocity terms in the coupled Einstein--scalar field equations. It is a characteristic feature of decelerated expansion before the onset of inflation. Previous numerical relativity studies have shown that anti-ultralocality prevents the onset of inflation in models with power-law inflaton potentials. In this paper, we show that models with plateau-shaped inflaton potentials, which are considered to be the simplest way to generate a tensor-to-scalar ratio below current observational upper limits, are especially vulnerable to anti-ultralocality effects. The reasons are the flatness of the plateau and the energy density gap of $\sim 10$ orders of magnitude between the Planck density and the plateau potential energy. To study the problem, we develop a protocol for assessing the viability of inflationary models in general, and we apply it to a plateau potential using a previously validated numerical relativity code. We find that, starting from generic initial conditions, the growth of gradient terms in the Einstein equations relative to non-gradient terms either prevents inflation from lasting for enough $e$-folds or triggers a phase of quantum runaway. We show that the fine-tuning of initial conditions necessary to avoid these issues becomes more severe as the energy scale of inflation is made smaller, disfavoring common approaches for reducing the tensor-to-scalar ratio.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Crack Detection and Pipe Shape Optimization for Enhanced Sewage System Durability

Crack detection in underground reinforced concrete pipes has been essential in determining the state of stormwater infrastructure. Detection models have been implemented for detecting cracks and other defects in pipes using CCTV footage for stormwater drainage systems. In addition, Finite element models have been used to determine optimum shapes and pipe thickness for different boundary conditions such as header pipes in power plants. The concept of shape optimization emerges as a crucial factor in power plant design and operation, with the potential to maximize performance while minimizing the use of materials. Shape optimization not only enhances efficiency but also contributes to reducing the environmental footprint. This paper discusses the integration of both topics by using the cracks detected in underground pipes as boundary conditions for shape optimization of the pipes. A machine learning model has been developed which uses limited data for training and outlines the location of detected cracks. A shape optimization methodology is proposed in which ANSYS modules are used to analyze fluid flow and then optimize the shape of the pipe. The crack detection model developed has been applied to a crack detected in lab setting and machine learning model used has an accuracy of 98% using a random forest algorithm.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

TEM Approaches for Microstructure-Informed Prediction of Mechanical Properties in Structural Alloys

Predicting the mechanical performance of structural alloys from their evolving microstructure remains a major challenge in materials science, particularly for nuclear structural materials, where irradiation-induced defects span multiple types and length scales and interact through complex mechanisms. The dispersed barrier hardening (DBH) [1] and Friedel–Kroupa–Hirsch (FKH) [2,3] models have been widely used to evaluate the hardening contributions of individual obstacles and to estimate tensile strength from quantified microstructures; however, when multiple size-dependent obstacles coexist and evolve, predicting temperature-dependent tensile strength becomes significantly more complex, and a fully consistent hardening model is still lacking. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) plays a central role in refining hardening models and enabling predictive assessments of tensile strength evolution by providing quantitative characterization of dislocations, irradiation-induced defects (e.g., dislocation loops and cavities), precipitates, and grain structure (Fig. 1.). These experimentally measured defect densities are incorporated into physically based hardening models with size- and shape- dependent obstacle strengths [4], using root-sum-square superposition for obstacles of comparable strength and linear superposition for dissimilar ones [5]. In addition, recent advances in TEM [6-8], including high-resolution imaging, 4D-STEM strain mapping, EDS/EELS elemental analysis, and flash-polishing-based TEM specimen preparation and extraction-replica methods (Fig. 2), further improve the accuracy of microstructural quantification. By comparison with prior studies as well as our own results, we show that when TEM-derived microstructural information is carefully integrated with physically grounded hardening models, yield strength (or irradiation-induced hardening) measured at room temperature can be predicted with good quantitative agreement across multiple alloy classes. In-situ TEM combined with high-temperature mechanical testing represents an important next step for refining hardening models by directly probing dislocation–obstacle interactions across varying irradiation doses and temperatures [9]. Because the barrier strength factor (α) depends on both temperature and obstacle size, it should not be treated as a constant fitting parameter; rather, it must be explicitly evaluated to achieve physically meaningful predictions of mechanical behaviour at operating temperatures. This presentation therefore discusses why all strengthening contributions (e.g., Peierls stress, solid-solution strengthening, voids, bubbles, dislocation loops, dislocation lines, and grain boundaries) must be considered collectively, why appropriate superposition methods are essential when obstacles possess different barrier strength factors, how hardness measurements can be meaningfully related to tensile properties, and how TEM-derived microstructural information can be systematically incorporated into hardening models. More broadly, it outlines a pathway toward microstructure-informed prediction of mechanical properties and supports the goal of establishing science-based tools for evaluating structural materials in extreme environments [10].

Lin, Yan-Ru [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000339991473)↗
DOE OSTI2026

On the Properties of Cosmological Ionization Fronts

We investigate the properties of cosmological ionization fronts during the epoch of reionization using the Cosmic Reionization on Computers simulations. By analyzing reionization timing maps, we characterize ionization front velocities and curvatures and their dependence on the density structure of the intergalactic medium (IGM). The velocity distribution of ionization fronts in the simulations indicates that while the barrier-crossing analytical model captures the overall shape in high-velocity regions, it fails to reproduce the low-velocity tail, highlighting the non-Gaussian nature of the IGM’s density field. Ionization front velocities are inversely correlated with local density, propagating faster in underdense regions and more slowly in overdense environments. Faster ionization fronts also lead to higher postionization temperatures, reaching a plateau at ∼2 × 10$^{4}$ K for velocities exceeding 3000 km s$^{−1}$. Examining curvature statistics further establishes a connection between ionization front structure and the normalized density contrast ν, with trends in overdense regions aligning well with barrier-crossing model predictions, while deviations appear in underdense environments due to model limitations. These results provide a detailed characterization of ionization front dynamics and their interaction with the underlying density field, bridging small-scale reionization physics with large-scale observables such as the 21 cm signal and the IGM’s thermal history.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deriving Stable Peak Models to Fit Complex XPS Data From Cu Contaminated Pt Electrocatalysts

X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy spectra peak models, designed to partition photoemission signals emanating from different elements or chemical states within an atom, are fitted to data limited to an energy interval over which inelastically scattered photoemission signal can be estimated. While the choice of background approximation and line shapes of components to the peak model requires careful consideration, the energy interval used to define the data to which the peak model is optimized has a significant impact on the final peak model. The relationship between the background intensity and data intensity at the start and end of the energy interval dictates the line shapes used in the peak model. In this work, we devise a method to peak fit a complex overlapping Cu 3p and Pt 4f XPS peak structure to perform the elemental quantification. We first use an Al 2s peak to illustrate how background curves approach data at the limits of the energy interval over which the background is defined, influencing the analysis of XPS spectra. Next, we demonstrate the nature of interactions between specific line shapes (Voigt and pseudo-Voigt profiles) suitable for photoemission peaks and a specific background curve (Shirley) and a peak model is presented that includes components to the peak model that accommodates background intensity during fitting of the peak model to data. The peak model allowed for quantification of the contributions of Pt 4f peaks emanating from the substrate that exhibits strong asymmetry in the presence of the inhomogeneously distributed Cu species, mostly of Lorentzian character.

XPS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parametric Finite Element Analysis of Naturally Corroded Steel Specimens Using 3D Surface Laser Scans

Corrosion is considered a uniform thickness reduction design guideline of the maritime industry. However, additionally, the corroded and irregular morphology of the surface affects the steel's load-bearing capacity and its impact on the strength and elongation behaviour of the steel is not yet fully understood. These effects on the local behaviour of steel structures under tensile loading were investigated with tensile tests on naturally corroded steel specimens and nonlinear finite element simulations including the corroded surface morphology with a uniform surface idealation. The models also include the deformed specimen shape. The developed approach led to highly accurate parametric finite element models predicting the ultimate tensile strength and longitudinal position of fracture. The results show that all included aspects are essential for accurate simulations, while solely the maximum available surface resolution was not as decisive.

corrosion↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicted thresholds for RMP ELM suppression access in double-null configurations

Modeling of DIII-D plasmas spanning shapes from single to double-null (DN) reveals new insights into the nature of resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) conditions necessary for edge-localized mode (ELM) suppression. The suppression of ELMs with RMPs has proven difficult in DN configurations, where no device has thus far reported any hints of suppression. Modeling using the GPEC code finds a reduced high-field side response closer to DN shaping. The resulting synthetic diagnostic measurements are consistent with what has been observed in experiments on DIII-D, validating the plasma response model in this regime. While common metrics for suppression do not illustrate a clear distinction between single-null (SN) and DN cases, the pedestal top resonant field does show a ∼20% decrease at DN shaping in modeling. Field penetration is assessed using linear tearing theory, which demonstrates a lack of sufficient pedestal top resonant flux in the DN shape, requiring at least 1.5 × greater RMP coil currents than what was used in experiment. Analysis from drift kinetic simulations further indicate up to 2 × larger critical island widths are required at the pedestal top for tearing mode growth compared to SN cases. Effective island widths inferred from 3D ideal MHD are also analyzed, where maximum widths in lab coordinates indicate a threshold of ∼18–24× the ion gyroradius for sufficient profile flattening for ELM suppression. These results suggest that ELM suppression may be possible in DN with sufficiently large RMP coil amplitude. Future prospects of achieving RMP ELM suppression in the DN configuration may involve going to lower triangularity, which is also highlighted in this work.

RMP ELM suppression↗
DOE OSTI2025

A simple centrifuge cell method for ex situ quantification of electrical conductivity of slurry electrode materials

We present the design, experimental procedure, and experimental evaluation of a system for fast, simple, and ex situ characterization of electrical conductivity of slurry electrode materials. The system uses a custom-designed electrochemical cell compatible with centrifugation in a swing-bucket centrifuge. The cell features cylindrical graphite electrodes that are partially sheathed so as to expose only 2 mm of the electrode surface to the bottom region of the packed particulate pellet. Also presented is a conduction model that provides a shape factor for estimating effective conductivity. We tested aqueous solutions of carbon black (CB), activated carbon (AC), and mixtures thereof. These particles were dispersed in 0.0 and 0.5 M NaCl solutions. Measurements show that the effective conductivity initially increases linearly with pellet mass and then saturates at higher masses. Notably, CB exhibited a fivefold increase in conductivity than AC at equal pellet masses. CB/AC mixtures at a fixed pellet mass were tested with CB mass fractions of 0 to 100%. Interestingly, the mixture conductivity was found to be a non-monotonic function of CB mass fraction, with a maximum conductivity at about 60 % CB mass fraction. At this maximum, the mixture conductivity is approximately 30 % higher than pure CB. NaCl concentration in the slurry solution had no effects on conductivity. These results highlight the interactions between slurry electrode composition and compaction, offering insights for optimizing slurry electrodes. Furthermore, the system and results may also be applicable to evaluation of particulate materials (including slurries) used for Li-ion batteries, capacitive deionization, fuel cells, and flow electrodes.

Capacitive deionization↗
DOE OSTI2026

Harnessing the Second-Order Metal−Insulator Transition for Neuromorphic Computing

Vanadium oxides are widely studied phase change materials for brain-inspired computing architectures. Systems like VO 2 and V 2 O 3 exhibit first-order metal−insulator transitions (MITs) with hysteresis and percolative switching, increasing stochasticity and device variability. Here, we focus on the less explored Magnéli phase V 4 O 7 , which undergoes a continuous, non-hysteretic, second-order MIT. This surprisingly enables highly reproducible volatile resistive switching in spiking-neuron-type devices. We synthesize V 4 O 7 films, characterize their structural and transport properties, and demonstrate voltage and current-driven threshold switching with electrothermal feedback. In a Pearson–Anson oscillator, V 4 O 7 devices produce stable, tunable spiking across 20–200 kHz, with consistent operation among multiple devices. We introduce a numerical analog leaky-integrate-and-fire (aLIF) model that captures waveform shapes and their dependence on load resistance, temperature, and voltage. Furthermore, these findings suggest that second-order MIT materials like V 4 O 7 are promising for deterministic, scalable spiking neuron arrays for neuromorphic computing.

V4O7↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Approach for Simulating Transport of Nonspherical, Sublimating Particles in Rarefied Gas Flows via the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo Method

This paper extends the particle Green’s function approach of Gallis et al. [Phys. Fluids 13, 3482–3492 (2001)] to compute the force and heat transfer on nonspherical, sublimating particles in rarefied gas flows. Green’s functions are derived for rods and plates, which are representative of ice particle shapes, and a numerical procedure is developed for computing the Green’s functions for a general discretized convex shape. Additionally, a sublimation model is developed to simulate the evolution of ice particles in rarefied gas flows. These models are implemented in a direct simulation Monte Carlo code and demonstrated for the case of ice-particle-laden hypersonic flow over a ramp.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibration and validation of the foundation for a multiphase strength model for tin

In this work, the Common Model of Multi-phase Strength and Equation of State (CMMP) model was applied to tin. Specifically, calibrations of the strength-specific elements of the CMMP foundation were developed with a combination of experiments and theory, and then the model was validated experimentally. The first element of the foundation is a multi-phase analytic treatment of the melt temperature and the shear modulus for the solid phases. These models were parameterized for each phase based on ab initio calculations using the software VASP (Vienna Ab initio Simulations Package) based on density functional theory. The shear modulus model for the ambient phase was validated with ultrasonic sound speed measurements as a function of pressure and temperature. The second element of the foundation is a viscoplastic strength model for the phase, upon which strength for inaccessible higher-pressure phases can be scaled as necessary. The stress–strain response of tin was measured at strain rates of 10 -3 to 3 x 10 3 s -1 and temperatures ranging from 87 to 373 K. The Preston–Tonks–Wallace (PTW) strength model was fit to that data using Bayesian model calibration. For validation, six forward and two reverse Taylor impact experiments were performed at different velocities to measure large plastic deformation of tin at strain rates up to ⁠10 5 s -1 . The PTW model accurately predicted the deformed shapes of the cylinders, with modest discrepancies attributed to the inability of PTW to capture the effects of twinning and dynamic recrystallization. Some material in the simulations of higher velocity Taylor cylinders reached the melting temperature, thus testing the multiphase model because of the presence of a second phase, the liquid. In simulations using a traditional modeling approach, the abrupt reduction of strength upon melt resulted in poor predictions of the deformed shape and non-physical temperatures. With CMMP, the most deformed material points evolved gradually to a mixed solid–liquid but never a fully liquid state, never fully lost strength, stayed at the melt temperature as the latent heat of fusion was absorbed, and predicted the deformed shape well.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Computational Workflow of Elucidating Viral Impact on Mediating Microbial Response to In-situ Experimental Warming: Bridging microbial modeling to carbon and mineral modeling

Viruses are abundant in soils and shape microbial communities in ways that can potentially influence ecosystem processes, yet their contributions to carbon cycling and mineral transformations remain poorly understood. Here we present a multi-phase framework that links virus-host interactions to soil biogeochemistry by combining ecological simulations, genome- and community-scale metabolic modeling, and statistical and machine-learning analyses. We first calibrated microbial abundance profiles under explicit infection scenarios to capture how viral pressure alters community structure, then explored alternative interaction strategies, including kill-the-winner, piggyback-the-winner, and mixed lytic-lysogenic modes, through forward simulations. These ecological shifts were translated into metabolic consequences using exchange fluxes summarized into biologically meaningful categories, while integrated statistical and machine-learning screens elevated subtle but consistent signals. Application of this framework revealed that viral infections shift the balance between organic and inorganic fluxes, redirecting metabolism from diffuse organic transformations toward inorganic pools such as protons and CO 2 , directly linking viral regulation to respiration and soil carbon balance. The roll-up analysis also isolated perturbations in critical mineral ions, including magnesium, manganese, zinc, and copper, which serve as essential enzymatic cofactors. In piggyback-the-winner scenarios, uptake of these ions was strongly suppressed. Contrasting viral strategies produced distinct community structures and metabolic outcomes, from broad suppression under kill-the-winner dynamics to dramatic redistributions under high-lytic and high-gain lysogenic regimes that collapsed vulnerable microbial populations while promoting opportunists. Together, these results provide a tractable path to trace viral perturbations from host abundance shifts to metabolic flux adjustments and ecosystem-scale processes, offering a practical way to include viruses in earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

CFD simulations of Molten Salt Fast Reactor core cavity flows

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has become increasingly important in the research and development of advanced nuclear reactors. Here, in the current study, extensive CFD simulations were conducted for the coolant flow in Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) core models using the state-of-the-art spectral element flow solver Nek5000 and multiscale coarse-mesh thermal-hydraulic software Pronghorn. The underlying motivation is to seek an in-depth understanding of how the internal velocity distribution can be influenced by the MSFR core cavity shape, the Reynolds number, turbulence modeling options and the inlet boundary conditions. The CFD techniques involved in this investigation range from coarse-mesh CFD, RANS modeling, to the high-fidelity LES calculations. Specifically, a series of RANS simulations were performed for the 2-D axisymmetric core model and 3-D wedge domains to study the flow distribution inside the MSFR core. It is observed that a proper representation of the MSFR inlet channel duct is important for the prediction of internal flow distribution. It is also showcased here how researchers can leverage the Nek5000 CFD results to calibrate more efficient coarse-mesh CFD tools, like Pronghorn, for the actual MSFR design needs. Moreover, this paper highlights a 3-D LES model for an entire MSFR core using the spectral element method and demonstrates the feasibility of this modeling approach. The readiness and potential limitations of the RANS approach are examined with respect to the high-fidelity LES simulations. The present investigation lays a solid foundation as we are leveraging the high-fidelity CFD capabilities to inform MSFR design efforts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Gaussian Process-Based extended Goldak heat source model for finite element simulation of laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing process

In this study, laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) is a key enabling technology to manufacture highly complex and integrated metallic structures. In L-PBF AM process, the melting of the metal powders and the layers underneath can be governed by either “conduction mode” or “keyhole mode”, with the keyhole mode reportedly leading to porosity and decreased strength and ductility by many studies. In part scale simulations, finite element (FE) model is often used to study the temperature distribution during printing and to predict the residual stress, where a volumetric heat flux with a Gaussian or a double ellipsoidal (Goldak) distribution is often applied as the laser heat source. However, the above heat source models can only capture the melt pool shape in the conduction mode, and fail to capture the transition to keyhole melting mode when the process parameters change. To overcome this inaccuracy, an extended Goldak heat source model is proposed by introducing a laser penetration term as a function of laser parameters obtained from a Gaussian-Process (GP) model. The model is validated by “2D pad” AlSi10Mg L-PBF experiments under a wide range of laser power, scan speed, and laser focus offset, and the results show the model successfully captures the measured melt pool shape in all conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Computational Tool Compatible with NEAMS Code Packages for Optimizing the Shape of Nuclear Reactor Components and of Whole Core Performance

We designed and implemented a shape optimization tool that functions with NEAMS codes, and that nuclear scientists and engineers can employ to optimize the shape of individual components and the whole core under the applicable single- or multi-physics model comprising the employed code(s). The shape-optimization tool enables varying the geometric shape itself as well as its dimensions to yield, potentially, new component designs that are not limited by the designer’s intuition and previous experience. In cases where the optimal-shape object is an individual component, we provide the capability for additional verification that the whole-core performance using the optimized component performs better, under the prescribed optimization criteria, than the initial design. Our shape-optimization tool couples to NEAMS codes via a flexible input- composer interface and enables the user to constrain the shape’s evolution to ensure the component’s manufacturability. Finally, we demonstrate our shape-optimization tool with single- and multi-physics NEAMS codes. This objective is motivated by the recent advances in manufacturing technology that, combined with rising interest in novel reactor concepts, are creating new opportunities for innovation in the design of individual components that affect the performance of the full reactor system. In particular, Additive Manufacturing (AM) enables mass production of highly precise, intricate and complex component shapes that are not feasible with traditional manufacturing techniques. To accomplish this goal we developed and implemented in MOOSE: (1) discrete shape optimization capability based on a state-space search that uses Artificial Intelligence strategies to find the optimal state/shape; (2) smooth shape optimization tool that employs PETSc’s toolkit for advanced optimization (TAO) to optimize node-displacement of the components’ model sidesets; (3) hierarchical core optimization workflow that recognizes the repeating patterns typical in a nuclear reactor and performs the optimization one level at a time with increasing length scale. Each of these tools is equipped with user-specified constraints to avoid optimal shapes that are not manufacturable. The developed shape optimization tool is verified and demonstrated on various nuclear reactor core components and models. The optimization process accounts for tightly coupled physics that govern the behavior of these target reactors, and exercises several NEAMS codes in a coupled multiphysics fashion. The impact of the delivered shape optimization tool will materialize in the optimal design, from the outset, of advanced reactors currently contemplated to regain the US’s leadership in nuclear energy R&D. Novel reactor concepts, e.g. Molten Salt Reactors, and sizes/capacities, e.g. micro- reactors, provide a unique opportunity to optimize performance from the early stages of development, before the investment in components’ production lines, validation experiments, and licensing regimes make future improvements in performance prohibitively expensive and force sub-optimal performance on the affected reactor concept in perpetuity. This benefit will be realized by the delivered shape optimization tool regardless of the applicable manufacturing process whether traditional or AM, thereby broadening the impact of this project on current and future reactor concepts and technologies

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Architected Liquid Crystal Elastomer Lattices with Programmable Energy Absorption

Architected LCE lattices are fabricated with flow-induced alignment via direct ink writing and systematically characterized their shape morphing, stiffness, and energy absorption behavior across strain rates spanning six orders of magnitude from 10 −3 to 10 3 s −1 . It is shown that architected liquid crystal elastomer (LCE) lattices exhibit superior energy absorption compared to their non-mesogenic (silicone) counterparts. Importantly, the LCE-to-silicone energy absorption ratios are up to 18-fold higher at the highest strain rate tested. A finite element model that captures their shape-morphing response is developed, which exhibits excellent agreement with the experimental observations. In conclusion, the work opens new avenues for designing and fabricating LCE lattices with programmable alignment, shape morphing, and mechanics.

active lattices↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pressure-Gradient-Based RANS Model for Predicting Separation in Transitional and Turbulent Flows

Predicting flow separation poses a significant challenge for RANS models, particularly in transitional flows over airfoils. We propose a novel improvement to RANS models to predict incipient separation in both transitional and fully turbulent flows. Our approach modifies the eddy viscosity model in regions indicated by a pressure-gradient criterion that accounts for intermittency - determining whether the boundary layer is laminar or turbulent. This model demonstrates robust generalization across various airfoil shapes and Reynolds numbers. Applied to the NREL Phase VI wind turbine rotor, our model shows improved aerodynamic performance predictions compared to the baseline RANS model.

k-omega SST↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (4.4 COP, 30.9 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock (TM) is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP). This document provides the relevant new modeling information for variable-speed systems not previously covered in either the single-stage or two-stage documents. Variable-speed GHPs represent the most efficient option available for this technology: They provide the most savings, with up to 46% for the applicable portion of the housing stock, compared to 31% for less efficient single-stage GHPs. Additional results shown here detail how the savings change for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuels and in different climate zones, and they show the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗