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At least 73 records · Page 4

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Optical detector calibrator system

An optical detector calibrator system simulates a source of optical radiation to which a detector to be calibrated is responsive. A light source selected to emit radiation in a range of wavelengths corresponding to the spectral signature of the source is disposed within a housing containing a microprocessor for controlling the light source and other system elements. An adjustable iris and a multiple aperture filter wheel are provided for controlling the intensity of radiation emitted from the housing by the light source to adjust the simulated distance between the light source and the detector to be calibrated. The geared iris has an aperture whose size is adjustable by means of a first stepper motor controlled by the microprocessor. The multiple aperture filter wheel contains neutral density filters of different attenuation levels which are selectively positioned in the path of the emitted radiation by a second stepper motor that is also controlled by the microprocessor. An operator can select a number of detector tests including range, maximum and minimum sensitivity, and basic functionality. During the range test, the geared iris and filter wheel are repeatedly adjusted by the microprocessor as necessary to simulate an incrementally increasing simulated source distance. A light source calibration subsystem is incorporated in the system which insures that the intensity of the light source is maintained at a constant level over time.

Strobel, James P.

Calibration of solar cells by the reference cell method - The spectral mismatch problem

The calibration of solar cells by means of solar simulators and calibrated reference cells has always been faced with the problem of errors due to source spectral irradiance mismatch and cell spectral response mismatch. A general expression is derived in this paper to enable calculation of mismatch error. The information required to make this calculation is the relative spectra responses of the test and reference cells, and the relative spectral irradiance of the simulator (over the spectral range defined by cell response). The spectral irradiance of the solar standard is assumed given. Experimental results are presented.

Seaman, C. H.

Automatic calibration of space based manipulators and mechanisms

Four tasks in manipulator kinematic calibration are summarized. Calibration of a seven degree of freedom manipulator was simulated. A calibration model is presented that can be applied on a closed-loop robot. It is an expansion of open-loop kinematic calibration algorithms subject to constraints. A closed-loop robot with a five-bar linkage transmission was tested. Results show that the algorithm converges within a few iterations. The concept of model differences is formalized. Differences are categorized as structural and numerical, with emphasis on the structural. The work demonstrates that geometric manipulators can be visualized as points in a vector space with the dimension of the space depending solely on the number and type of manipulator joint. Visualizing parameters in a kinematic model as the coordinates locating the manipulator in vector space enables a standard evaluation of the models. Key results include a derivation of the maximum number of parameters necessary for models, a formal discussion on the inclusion of extra parameters, and a method to predetermine a minimum model structure for a kinematic manipulator. A technique is presented that enables single point sensors to gather sufficient information to complete a calibration.

Everett, Louis J.

Analyses of Control Surface Seal Tested in the Ames Arc Jet Tunnel (Panel Test Facility)

The contents include: 1) Rope Seal; 2) Improvements to porous medial simulation in CFD-ACE+; 3) Porous media heat transfer validation case-stead-state and transient flat plate; 4) Simulation of GRC cold flow seal test fixture; 5) Simulation of calibration plate in the Panel Test Facility (PTF); and 6) Simulation of rope seal test in the PTF. This paper is in viewgraph form.

Reich, Alton J.

Constraining hydrodynamic models of inertial confinement fusion implosions using capsule surrogate experiments

We conduct capsule surrogate experiments at the National Ignition Facility to calibrate radiation hydrodynamic simulations to infer hydrodynamic conditions that are not observable in indirect drive ignition implosions. We tune the simulations by applying laser power and cross beam energy transfer (CBET) saturation multipliers to match the observables from capsule surrogate experiments. Shock timing, velocity, and symmetry are measured in liquid D 2 filled Keyhole capsule surrogate experiments and implosion trajectory, stagnation time, and shape time history are measured in in-flight 2D backlit x-ray radiography experiments (“2DConA”) of D 2 gas filled capsule implosions. Calibrated simulations suggest that the N210808 ignition implosion (fusion target gain = 0.7) had a shell mass remaining at stagnation of less than the nominal %5 (3.8%) and resulted in less confinement. For N221204, the shell was made 5.75 μm thicker to trade implosion velocity for increased confinement and resulted in a target gain = 1.5 with a shell mass remaining of 5.7%. Furthermore, a single adjusted model can reproduce all shock timing data as changes are made to shell thickness (79–85 μm) and laser wavelength separation (1.8–4.0 Å). However, for the 2DConA implosions, a 5% variation in the peak power laser multipliers and a 30% variation in late-time CBET between experiments are needed to match the observed stagnation times, in-flight $P_2$ shape, and hot-spot $P_2$ shape. While progress is being made to improve the models in simulations using focused experiments, capsule surrogate experiments will continue to be needed to optimize future ignition designs.

Lasers

Line-of-sight tropospheric calibration from measurements in arbitrary directions

Tropospheric inhomogeneities limit the accuracy with which a path delay in an arbitrary direction can be estimated from calibration measurements in different directions. This article demonstrates a mathematical procedure that has the potential for minimizing errors in the estimated geometrical and tropospheric path delays. The error is minimized by applying least-squares estimation to a combined set of observables in the calibration directions and the direction to be calibrated. A simulated test of this procedure was conducted using a model set of error-free calibration measurements. In the absence of geometrical delay mismodeling, the simulation yielded delay errors which vary from about 1 mm at zenith to about 1 cm at 10 degrees. The main principles of how this procedure could be applied to improve accuracy of deep space tracking using global positioning system (GPS) data are also discussed.

Wilcox, J. Z.

Simulator spectral characterization using balloon calibrated solar cells with narrow band pass filters

The development and implementation of an instrument for spectral measurement of solar simulators for testing solar cell characteristics is reported. The device was constructed for detecting changes in solar simulator behavior and for comparing simulator spectral irradiance to solar AM0 output. It consists of a standard solar cell equipped with a band pass filter narrow enough so that, when flown on a balloon to sufficient altitude along with sufficient numbers of cells, each equipped with filters of different bandpass ratings, the entire spectral response of the standard cell can be determined. Measured short circuit currents from the balloon flights thus produce cell devices which, when exposed to solar simulator light, have a current which does or does not respond as observed under actual AM0 conditions. Improvements of the filtered cells in terms of finer bandpass filter tuning and measurement of temperature coefficients are indicated.

Goodelle, G. S.

Simulating High Energy Dynamic Impact of IM7/PEKK Continuous Fiber Laminated Thermoplastic Composite using Open Hole Coupon Experiments

The use of advanced thermoplastic composites (TPC) for structural applications in the aerospace and automotive industries has grown increasingly popular due to their high performance, high manufactured part output, and sustainability. Enhancing verification simulations of the progressive failure in TPCs at the coupon scale is needed to better validate advanced composite material models at larger length scales, such as element level panels. MAT_213, a tabulated composite material model, has been applied to simulate high velocity dynamic impact (HEDI) and is integrated in the LS-DYNA explicit finite element (FE) software. Previous efforts using MAT_213 have calibrated HEDI simulated failures with experimental data. Traditionally simulations have relied on a structured mesh to represent quasi-isotropic panels. For this study, a continuous fiber unidirectional tape, IM7/PEKK, was analyzed through a series of verification studies of notched laminate coupons, then validation analyses of quasi-isotropic panels under HEDI were compared with experimental data. Experiments using unidirectional TPC were performed to obtain tabulated stress vs strain curves using Digital Image Correlation (DIC) for input into MAT_213. Next, notched coupon experiments were used as an intermediate step to calibrate the damage and failure behavior in MAT_213. Lastly, investigations into differences between HEDI simulations using a fiber aligned mesh were compared with experimental failure patterns and damage sizes. The use of experimentally generated material behavior along with selective mesh layout improved HEDI predictions with minimal material parameter calibration.

Polymer matrix composites

The Wide-Field Spatio-Spectral Interferometer: System Overview, Data Synthesis and Analysis

The Wide-field Imaging Interferometry Testbed (WIIT) is a double Fourier (DF) interferometer operating at optical wavelengths, and provides data that are highly representative of those from a space-based far-infrared interferometer like SPIRIT. We have used the testbed to observe both geometrically simple and astronomically representative test scenes. Here we present an overview of the astronomical importance of high angular resolution at the far infrared, followed by the description of the optical set-up of WIIT, including the source simulator CHIP (Calibrated Hyperspectral Image Projector). We describe our synthesis algorithms used in the reconstruction of the input test scenes via a simulation of the most recent measurements. The updated algorithms, which include instruments artifacts that allow the synthesis of DF experimental data, are presented and the most recent results analyzed.

Juanola-Parramon, Roser

Results of the 1981 NASA/JPL balloon flight solar cell calibration program

The calibration of the direct conversion of solar energy through use of solar cells at high altitudes by balloon flight is reported. Twenty seven modules were carried to an altitude of 35.4 kilometers. Silicon cells are stable for long periods of time and can be used as standards. It is demonstrated that the cell mounting cavity may be either black or white with equal validity in setting solar simulators. The calibrated cells can be used as reference standards in simulator testing of cells and arrays.

Seaman, C. H.

NASA's GMAO Atmospheric Motion Vectors Simulator: Description and Application to the MISTiC Winds Concept

An atmospheric wind vectors (AMVs) simulator was developed by NASA's GMAO to simulate observations from future satellite constellation concepts. The synthetic AMVs can then be used in OSSEs to estimate and quantify the potential added value of new observations to the present Earth observing system and, ultimately, the expected impact on the current weather forecasting skill. The GMAO AMV simulator is a tunable and flexible computer code that is able to simulate AMVs expected to be derived from different instruments and satellite orbit configurations. As a case study and example of the usefulness of this tool, the GMAO AMV simulator was used to simulate AMVs envisioned to be provided by the MISTiC Winds, a NASA mission concept consisting of a constellation of satellites equipped with infrared spectral midwave spectrometers, expected to provide high spatial and temporal resolution temperature and humidity soundings of the troposphere that can be used to derive AMVs from the tracking of clouds and water vapor features. The GMAO AMV simulator identifies trackable clouds and water vapor features in the G5NR and employs a probabilistic function to draw a subset of the identified trackable features. Before the simulator is applied to the MISTiC Winds concept, the simulator was calibrated to yield realistic observations counts and spatial distributions and validated considering as a proxy instrument to the MISTiC Winds the Himawari-8 Advanced Imager (AHI). The simulated AHI AMVs showed a close match with the real AHI AMVs in terms of observation counts and spatial distributions, showing that the GMAO AMVs simulator synthesizes AMVs observations with enough quality and realism to produce a response from the DAS equivalent to the one produced with real observations. When applied to the MISTiC Winds scanning points, it can be expected that the MISTiC Winds will be able to collect approximately 60,000 wind observations every 6 hours, if considering a constellation composed of 12 satellites (4 orbital planes). In addition, one of the main expected impacts of the MISTiC Winds concept is the ability to derive water vapor feature tracking AMVs below 500-400 hPa, an unique feature among the water vapor AMVs derived from the current Earth observing system.

Carvalho, David

NASA's GMAO Atmospheric Motion Vectors Simulator: Description and Application to the MISTiC Winds Concept

An atmospheric wind vectors (AMVs) simulator was developed by NASA's GMAO to simulate observations from future satellite constellation concepts. The synthetic AMVs can then be used in OSSEs to estimate and quantify the potential added value of new observations to the present Earth observing system and, ultimately, the expected impact on the current weather forecasting skill. The GMAO AMV simulator is a tunable and flexible computer code that is able to simulate AMVs expected to be derived from different instruments and satellite orbit configurations. As a case study and example of the usefulness of this tool, the GMAO AMV simulator was used to simulate AMVs envisioned to be provided by the MISTiC Winds, a NASA mission concept consisting of a constellation of satellites equipped with infrared spectral midwave spectrometers, expected to provide high spatial and temporal resolution temperature and humidity soundings of the troposphere that can be used to derive AMVs from the tracking of clouds and water vapor features. The GMAO AMV simulator identifies trackable clouds and water vapor features in the G5NR and employs a probabilistic function to draw a subset of the identified trackable features. Before the simulator is applied to the MISTiC Winds concept, the simulator was calibrated to yield realistic observations counts and spatial distributions and validated considering as a proxy instrument to the MISTiC Winds the Himawari-8 Advanced Imager (AHI). The simulated AHI AMVs showed a close match with the real AHI AMVs in terms of observation counts and spatial distributions, showing that the GMAO AMVs simulator synthesizes AMVs observations with enough quality and realism to produce a response from the DAS equivalent to the one produced with real observations. When applied to the MISTiC Winds scanning points, it can be expected that the MISTiC Winds will be able to collect approximately 60,000 wind observations every 6 hours, if considering a constellation composed of 12 satellites (4 orbital planes). In addition, one of the main expected impacts of the MISTiC Winds concept is the ability to derive water vapor feature tracking AMVs below 500-400 hPa, an unique feature among the water vapor AMVs derived from the current Earth observing system.

Carvalho, David