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Evaluating Probability of Containment Effectiveness at a GCS Sites using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision Networks
Improved scientific and engineering understanding of the behavior of geologic CO2 storage together with established regulatory framework and incentive structures raise the prospects for accelerated, large-scale deployment of this greenhouse gas emissions reduction approach. Incentive structures call for the establishment of appropriate verification and accounting approaches to support claims of the integrity of a geologic storage complex and to justify taking credit for long-term storage. In this study, we present a framework for assessing the probability of containment effectiveness over the lifetime of a geologic carbon storage site (e.g., after 70 years of injection and post-injection site performance) using forward stochastic model realizations based on site characterization data and using a monitoring-informed Bayesian network based on hypothetical detectability from surface seismic surveys over the site injection and post-injection phases. The National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) was utilized to develop an ensemble of 10,000 a priori stochastic forecasts of CO2 containment. Those simulations were used to train the Bayesian network model to estimate the prior probabilities of the CO2 leakage mass into overlying, monitorable aquifers considering the uncertainties in the reservoir properties, permeability of potentially leaky wells and the overlying aquifers. The conditional probabilities in the Bayesian network were either learned from the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations or derived from the predefined detection thresholds for the monitoring method. Observations obtained from monitoring, over time during the site operation phases were then used to generate updated posterior probabilities of containment (and any loss from containment) in the Bayesian network by propagating the prior probabilities through the conditional probabilities. We demonstrate how to construct and use the Bayesian network for verifying the long-term storage complex effectiveness informed by monitoring based on the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations previously developed for the FutureGen 2.0 site. This approach may have relevance for stake holders to demonstrate secure geologic storage, provide a defensible, probabilistic approach to claim credit for geologic storage, and to estimate the likelihood that any fraction of the claimed credit may need to be refunded to the creditor based on available monitoring information.
MRCI Task 3: Facilitating Data Collection, Sharing, and Analysis Final Technical Summary Report
The Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative (MRCI) Task 3.0 was defined to facilitate development of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in the region by collection and sharing of existing and new technical data from CCUS projects and research. The task also included support for further analysis and assessment of tools by the project team and by researchers working on programs such as National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), machine learning (ML) techniques, and assessment and improvement of CCUS site assessment, operations, and monitoring aspects. Work under Task 3.0 addressed key issues related to CCUS deployment and provided foundational research and datasets to help establish CCUS projects in the MRCI. Report Authors and Principal Technical Contributors: Joel Sminchak, Laura Keister, Mackenzie Scharenberg, Priya Ravi-Ganesh, Autumn Haagsma, Srikanta Mishra, Jared Hawkins, Jared Schuetter, Amy Lang, Jaelen Lewis, Derrick James, Jorge Barrios, Stuart Skopec, and Sanjay Mawalkar (Battelle). Chris Korose, Carl Carmen, Nate Grigsby, Nathan Webb (Illinois State Geological Survey). Principal Investigators: Dr Neeraj Gupta, Dr. Chris Korose.
EVI-LOCATE: One Stop Solution for Estimating Cost of Installing EV Charging Stations
EVI-LOCATE (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure-Locally Optimized Cost Assessment Tool and Estimator) is a site assessment tool to estimate costs to install EV charging stations. EVI-LOCATE enables users to generate site-specific, user-specific, and location-specific EV charging station installation designs and cost estimates. The tool integrates National Electrical Code, deep-learning pixel classification algorithm, and component-level costs to estimate the costs.
Geologic Risk Assessment Activities at SECARB Cranfield, MS Site
Risk Assessment (RA) of RCSP Phase 3 sites is a DOE requirement and valuable to DOE’s program because this process encourage careful consideration of elements that could damage an individual project, or if severe ,damage credibility and public commercial acceptance of the sequestration process. Poor outcomes even from small projects can have negative consequences larger than the cost to the individual project. In addition, practice in risk assessment compared to project evolution is needed as part of the confidence-building toward future large scale, long term industrial activities.
National Demonstration Reactor Siting Study—Phase I (Revision 1)
In 2020, the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) initiated the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP), with the goal of demonstrating two advanced reactor designs within the next five to seven years. When evaluating challenges in meeting this deadline, the newly established National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) determined that there was a limited number of well-characterized sites that could support this time-sensitive demonstration requirement. To close this gap, NRIC initiated a two-phase joint analytic effort including DOE, National Laboratory, and academic partners to examine demonstration reactor siting alternatives. The first phase of the study, which is documented in this report, describes the development of a methodology for site assessment and a preliminary assessment of a limited number of known siting alternatives. Revision 1 of this report includes 3 additional (13 total) siting alternatives and 2 additional (4 total) example scenarios.
Appendix D: Assessement of potential industrial sites in Essex County, New York
Potential industrial sites were assessed using high and medium altitude aircraft photographs and supporting information on the 4,730 sq. km. (1,825 sq. mile) county. Factors evaluated include land availability, slope, site accessibility, soil drainage, other subsurface characteristics, and the expected physical as well as visual impacts on existing land use. Areas unavailable or unsuitable for development were eliminated first, and the remaining areas evaluated and the best sites identified.
Guideline for Characterizing and Evaluating a Candidate Project Site for Solar Thermal Applications
This document presents a structured procedure for characterizing and evaluating candidate project sites for concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) applications. The objective is to provide project developers, researchers, and other stakeholders with a consistent, technology-agnostic framework for early-stage site assessment, enabling informed decision-making prior to significant investment in project development. Site selection is a critical factor in project success or failure for both CSP and SHIP projects. Key factors such as solar resource availability, land characteristics, environmental and regulatory constraints, infrastructure availability, and community context are determined by the choice of project site and can materially impact project performance, cost, schedule, and overall viability. This procedure is designed to systematically evaluate these factors, identify potential fatal flaws, and prioritize the most favorable candidate sites for further development. The process begins with rapid screening-level evaluation, using publicly available data to assess solar resource, land availability and suitability, zoning and land-use compatibility, and exclusion zones such as protected lands or sensitive habitats. Sites that meet the minimum screening criteria advance to a more detailed characterization. Subsequent sections of this report provide guidance for a next-level assessment of the most important technical and environmental parameters, including: 1) Solar resource quality, variability, and uncertainty using multiyear datasets and, where appropriate, on-site measurement campaigns; 2) Meteorological conditions such as wind, temperature, extreme weather events, and soiling impacts; 3) Land characteristics including slope, shading, and geotechnical conditions; and 4) Environmental and regulatory considerations, including permitting processes, endangered species, cultural resources, and visual impacts. The procedure also addresses infrastructure and integration considerations, including: 1) Grid interconnection requirements for CSP power generation projects; 2) Electrical and operational integration for SHIP facilities; 3) Water availability, quality, and permitting constraints, which are particularly critical for CSP in arid regions; and 4) Site access, construction logistics, and availability of workforce and supporting services. Recognizing the importance of social and economic context, the procedure includes evaluation of community engagement factors, such as stakeholder sentiment, proximity to sensitive visual receptors, workforce development opportunities, and local economic incentives. The outputs of these assessments are synthesized in a cost and risk evaluation, translating site characteristics into expected impacts on capital cost, operating cost, schedule, and technical risk. This is complemented by screening-level performance modeling, including 8760 simulations and long-term projections, to quantify expected energy or thermal output, assess variability thereof, and support comparison between candidate sites. Finally, the procedure provides high-level guidance on a structured go/no-go decision framework, categorizing sites based on identified risks and constraints, and outlining a clear path forward to feasibility studies and front-end engineering design for viable projects. By standardizing the site characterization process across both CSP and SHIP applications, this guideline aims to: 1) Improve consistency and transparency in early-stage project evaluation; 2) Reduce development risk and avoid investment in nonviable project sites; 3) Support collaboration between developers, researchers, and public agencies; and 4) Accelerate successful deployment of concentrating solar technologies for both power generation and industrial process heat.
Emission Inventories from Natural Gas Storage Facilities using Regional Frequency Comb Laser Monitoring and Aircraft Flyovers. Final Report
The project centers around a ground-based regional methane sensor developed by the CU/NIST team members under the DOE ARPA-E MONITOR program, and sophisticated aircraft measurement techniques developed by the UCD/Scientific Aviation team (responsible for a recent Science publication quantifying the Aliso Canyon storage field release). The dual frequency-comb spectrometer is an invisible, eye-safe laser capable of measuring atmospheric methane concentrations along beam paths 1+ miles in length with high precision and stability (<1 ppb methane over 1 mile). The CU/NIST team has developed a unique approach to using a single, central spectrometer to locate and size methane emissions as small as 6 scfh from specific gas field structures within the 1+ mile range of the laser. Deployment involves the stationing of small cubic mirrors at strategic locations across the gas storage site. The mirrors direct light from the spectrometer back to a detector, where methane concentrations are recorded based on light absorption at specific wavelengths. The measurements are coupled with high resolution gas transport models based on meteorological measurements (wind, etc.) to determine the precise location and emission rate of methane sources. The calibration-free and continuous nature of dual frequency-comb spectrometer measurements means that a large area can be monitored continuously for temporal variability of emissions over long periods of time. The aircraft measurements involve spiral flights around storage facilities with a sensitive ethane/methane measurement package. Upwind/downwind concentration comparisons and wind data provide total facility emissions data. During this project, a new micrometeorological package was integrated onto the Scientific Aviation aircraft to provide even greater emissions quantification capability. In this project, the ground-based measurement system was deployed for 11 months (to capture seasonal variability) at a West Coast storage facility, together with a campaign of twice monthly aircraft total facility emissions flights. The data from these two modalities was combined to quantify the methane emissions from the facility with first-of-its-kind temporal and spatial detail. Concurrent with this deployment, the aircraft team performed flights to quantify emissions at a wider array of previously un-surveyed storage sites. The ground-based measurement system was then moved to an additional site of differing total storage and delivery capacity. Aircraft mass balance flights continued, repeatedly surveying (twice monthly) this site, as well as surveying a large number of previously un-assessed sites spanning a variety of size, reservoir type and age. Assessment of ground-based, temporally and spatially detailed methane emissions information alongside aircraft-derived methane total facility emissions information led to an improved understanding of emissions, relevant for inventories of the natural gas storage sector. In particular, this work provided temporal detail (seasonal of emissions and frequency of leaks) to stakeholders and personnel responsible for updates to the EPA’s GHGI. The impact of the proposed work has been a dramatic improvement in the temporal, spatial, and site- and type- specific detail and quantification of emissions inventories for the natural gas storage sector. This work directly benefits the EPA’s GHGI, directly ameliorates the environmental impacts and public health and safety of the natural gas storage sector, and aids policymakers and industry to make sound choices with respect to management and regulation.
Smart Planning for Radioactive Source Transport Advanced Tools for Increased Safety and Efficiency
End-of-life (EOL) management of high-activity radioactive sources is made uniquely challenging by the inherent risks associated with storage and transportation of these sources, the complex logistics involved, and the strict requirements for regulatory compliance. Traditional methods lack comprehensive tools for accurate site assessments and precision planning for the transportation of radioactive sources. They also frequently fail to provide the adaptability required to consider diverse operational environments, resulting in inefficiencies and potential safety concerns. This paper introduces a novel software solution developed to address these issues by integrating advanced technologies such as light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-based 3D environment modeling, smart dynamic route planning, and customizable measurement functionalities. This software enables detailed terrain visualizations, facilitating thorough environmental assessments and enabling users to virtually navigate, analyze, and plan site-specific operations. Among the key features are a user-centric interface for virtual navigation, precise site measurement tools for site evaluations, interactive visualizations that highlight potential operational hazards, dynamic route planning capabilities, and real-time collision detection to promote safe workflows. By demonstrating the effectiveness of this tool through real-world application, the present work underscores the tool’s potential to revolutionize radioactive source EOL management by improving operational efficiencies, minimizing risk, and advancing the state of practice to achieve suitable and secure radioactive material handling.
A Systematic Evidence Based Performance Approach to Regulation of Nuclear Sites in England and Wales - 20058
The Environment Agency for England has developed a systematic evidence-based approach to pursue our strategic environmental objectives for the regulation of nuclear sites. We use an annual evidence review process to ensure effective and efficient targeting of limited resources to achieve those objectives. Over the last 8 years, we have been developing and refining this approach to ensure risk-based and value driven regulation. The approach comprises nuclear site and nuclear sector review processes known as Site Environment Review (SER) and Nuclear Environment Review (NER). This approach complements our regulation of nuclear site permit holders under the Environmental Permitting Regulations (EPR). We deliver our regulation of nuclear sites in England and Wales alongside the Office for Nuclear Regulation. The SER process involves the lead regulator for each nuclear site assessing the permit holder's environmental performance across 14 themes, set within the context of the site's main activities and associated waste disposals. Our themes include environmental leadership, resources and climate change, radioactive waste management, facility management and decommissioning, groundwater, and environmental radiological protection. We use evidence from site inspections and working within our subject matter groups to grade current and predicted future environmental performance. We are particularly interested in sustainability and the application of Best Available Techniques (BAT) to prevent the creation, and minimise the disposal, of radioactive wastes. We use risk analysis (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) to examine performance against our strategic environmental objectives, which are set out, in our 5-year Nuclear Delivery Plan (NDP). The output supports the targeting of our resources at each nuclear site. We consult the relevant permit holders on the SER priorities and use their feedback to refine our plans. We expect all permit holders to take account of our priorities when considering their own programmes of work, objectives and plans. The NER process brings together what we learn and achieve through regulation across the sector. It provides input to planning priorities, supported by qualitative and semi-quantitative evidence. It covers the 28 nuclear sites in England and Wales and spans the same 14 environmental themes. During the process we collate, compile and summarise evidence from the SERs and other sources such as inspection reports and evidence from our other nuclear work programmes. The output is the NER annual report. This provides a snapshot of the status of the nuclear sector and gives insights to enable us to regulate more efficiently and effectively. It also takes account of cross-cutting issues and risks such as changes in international standards, domestic policy, regulatory framework, domestic standards and guidance, learning from experience such as incidents, events and good practice, and innovation, research and development. It provides graphics that illustrate the grading of environmental performance for the nuclear sector across the fourteen environmental themes. This analysis allows benchmarking of nuclear site's environmental performance and the visualisation provides a convenient comparison of performance across themes, sites, and over time. We use this intelligence to inform our investment in training and development of our staff, and our cross-cutting engagement on strategic issues with government, the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) and other corporate organisations. Adopting this approach can provide benefits with organisational reputation, stakeholder participation and ensuring value from the public investment. This paper describes the history of the SER/NER process, a selection of outputs from the process and ideas for improvement. The paper will be of interest to other regulators and organisations across the world that are interested in supporting continuous improvement. (authors)
Monitoring Depolymerization in Mesopores Using Dynamic Properties of Polymeric Melt Accessed via Dielectric Spectroscopy
Traditional design principles for heterogeneous catalysis guide the use of catalytic particles with mesosized (∼2–50 nm) pores to increase the number of surface-active sites by way of an increased surface area. However, the entry of long-chain polymers into such pores may be significantly limited by the size and entanglement of polymers in the melt state, thereby decreasing the number of accessible sites. Assessment of catalyst performance from traditional reactor-based studies averages over intrapore reaction events as well as reactions on the surface of a particle, resulting in an inability to distinguish between differences in site accessibility and activity. Techniques that assess the intrapore performance can inform the design of future heterogeneous catalysts for polymer upcycling. In this work, we demonstrate the use of broadband dielectric spectroscopy to monitor depolymerization of a polymer melt within mesopores via changes in the segmental relaxation time scale of amorphous polymer chains. In particular, we highlight the use of an anodic aluminum oxide (AAO) membrane as a readily available model for catalyst pores with a well-characterized pore morphology. The decrease in the segmental relaxation (α-relaxation) time of the melt with increasing chain scission emerges as a measure of the extent of polymer deconstruction inside mesopores. To demonstrate the utility of this technique, we demonstrate the decomposition of two commercial poly(propylene carbonate) polymers with different decomposition rates within mesopores. As the polymers depolymerize, their segmental relaxation time decreases as the molecular weight decreases (as predicted by the Fox–Flory equation). The BDS-measured change in segmental relaxation time mirrors the expected trend based on change in molecular weight measured by size exclusion chromatography.
Discovery, characterization, and application of chromosomal integration sites for stable heterologous gene expression in Rhodotorula toruloides
Rhodotorula toruloides is a non-model, oleaginous yeast uniquely suited to produce acetyl-CoA-derived chemicals. However, the lack of well-characterized genomic integration sites has impeded the metabolic engineering of this organism. Here we report a set of computationally predicted and experimentally validated chromosomal integration sites in R. toruloides. We first implemented an in silico platform by integrating essential gene information and transcriptomic data to identify candidate sites that meet stringent criteria. We then conducted a full experimental characterization of these sites, assessing integration efficiency, gene expression levels, impact on cell growth, and long-term expression stability. Among the identified sites, 12 exhibited integration efficiencies of 50% or higher, making them sufficient for most metabolic engineering applications. Using selected high-efficiency sites, we achieved simultaneous double and triple integrations and efficiently integrated long functional pathways (up to 14.7 kb). Additionally, we developed a new inducible marker recycling system that allows multiple rounds of integration at our characterized sites. Here, we validated this system by performing five sequential rounds of GFP integration and three sequential rounds of MaFAR integration for fatty alcohol production, demonstrating, for the first time, precise gene copy number tuning in R. toruloides. These characterized integration sites should significantly advance metabolic engineering efforts and future genetic tool development in R. toruloides.
Data for Discovery, Characterization, and Application of Chromosomal Integration Sites for Stable Heterologous Gene Expression in Rhodotorula toruloides
Rhodotorula toruloides is a non-model, oleaginous yeast uniquely suited to produce acetyl-CoA-derived chemicals. However, the lack of well-characterized genomic integration sites has impeded the metabolic engineering of this organism. Here we report a set of computationally predicted and experimentally validated chromosomal integration sites in R. toruloides . We first implemented an in silico platform by integrating essential gene information and transcriptomic data to identify candidate sites that meet stringent criteria. We then conducted a full experimental characterization of these sites, assessing integration efficiency, gene expression levels, impact on cell growth, and long-term expression stability. Among the identified sites, 12 exhibited integration efficiencies of 50% or higher, making them sufficient for most metabolic engineering applications. Using selected high-efficiency sites, we achieved simultaneous double and triple integrations and efficiently integrated long functional pathways (up to 14.7 kb). Additionally, we developed a new inducible marker recycling system that allows multiple rounds of integration at our characterized sites. We validated this system by performing five sequential rounds of GFP integration and three sequential rounds of MaFAR integration for fatty alcohol production, demonstrating, for the first time, precise gene copy number tuning in R. toruloides . These characterized integration sites should significantly advance metabolic engineering efforts and future genetic tool development in R. toruloides .
Proposal to evaluate the use of ERTS-A imagery in mapping and managing soil range resources in the Sand Hills Region of Nebraska
The author has identified the following significant results. Color composites generated from bands 4, 5, and 7 of MSS image 1061-16552 show that Aquic Haplustolls and Typic Haplaquolls can be separated from other subgroups present on Sand Hills rangeland. Since Aquic Haplustolls are suitable for establishment of center pivot irrigation systems, this provides one means of locating and assessing sites for the establishment of center pivot irrigation for irrigated pasture or other irrigated crops. This separation also provides for a rapid assessment of subirrigated land, much of which is used for harvest of hay. Subsequent estimates of hay production can then be made as ground truth establishes actual production levels.
Rapidly Deployable Hardware and Software Network for Wave Energy Site Characterization and Monitoring
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Choosing the Best Modeling Platform for Radiological Risk Assessment Models - 20468
Radiological risk assessments, in the form of performance or safety assessments, are often required under regulations or guidance for remediation of contaminated land, decommissioning of contaminated buildings or structures, and radioactive waste disposal. These risk assessments are usually supported by fate and transport models that address decay and ingrowth of radionuclides, as well as their movement through engineered systems and the natural environment. These models are often projected thousands, or more, years into the future, largely because the radioactive species change through decay and ingrowth, and hence the magnitude of the radioactive effect changes with time. There are many computer codes that are available to address this type of modeling. They range from addressing specific pathways or processes such as infiltration of water, groundwater, surface water, air, biota, diffusion and advection of water and gases, to those that try to couple all processes together to evaluate the impact of fate and transport through the entire system to places in space and time to which access is assumed. These different types of codes are sometimes separated with the monikers process-level and systems-level codes, although it is often not clear that this separation does justice to the capabilities of the many codes that are available to evaluate fate and transport of radionuclides. The focus of this paper is the latter group of modeling codes. Several systems level modeling codes exist and are used. There are differences between these codes in terms of utility, flexibility, complexity and cost. The purpose of this paper is to compare a few of these codes in the context of work currently being performed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Modeling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA) II Working Group 1 (WG1). The MODARIA II WG1's main focus is how stakeholder engaged decision analysis can, or should, be applied to radiological contamination problems so that better, longstanding, sustainable, solutions are reached. However, the WG1 also recognizes the potential impact of the modeling tools that are chosen to address radiological risk, which is often a primary objective of decision making for radiological problems. Other objectives might also be important, such as constraining costs, obtaining financing, minimizing impact on ecosystems, saving cultural resources, saving jobs, farmland, environmental justice, etc., in a full decision analysis for a given radiological contamination problem, but none of these other objectives have the same types of complex modeling needs as minimize radiological dose. Consequently, a further focus of WG1 is to evaluate the potential impacts on decision making of the choice of fate and transport, and risk assessment, modeling codes that are used to support decision making. The WG1 will produce a report at the end of 2020 that will focus on an approach to effective decision making and stakeholder engagement. The report will also consider the role that performance assessment modeling should play in the decision-making process, including the impact of the choice of modeling tools or computer codes on risk-informed decision making. Several sites around the World have been made available by Member States for these model comparisons, and several modeling tools have been considered. However, the focus of this paper is on two of the sites, one in Belgium and one in Ukraine, and on three of the tools: NORMALYSA (NORM And Legacy Site Assessment); GoldSim{sup C}, and AMBER{sup C}. The final report from this working group will also cover other modeling tools, including RESRAD, and PC-Cream{sup R}. (authors)