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DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Compressional Velocity and Bulk Density Logs in Marine Gas Hydrates Using Machine Learning

Compressional velocity (Vp) and bulk density (ρb) logs are essential for characterizing gas hydrates and near-seafloor sediments; however, it is sometimes difficult to acquire these logs due to poor borehole conditions, safety concerns, or cost-related issues. We present a machine learning approach to predict either compressional Vp or ρb logs with high accuracy and low error in near-seafloor sediments within water-saturated intervals, in intervals where hydrate fills fractures, and intervals where hydrate occupies the primary pore space. We use scientific-quality logging-while-drilling well logs, gamma ray, ρb, Vp, and resistivity to train the machine learning model to predict Vp or ρb logs. Of the six machine learning algorithms tested (multilinear regression, polynomial regression, polynomial regression with ridge regularization, K nearest neighbors, random forest, and multilayer perceptron), we find that the random forest and K nearest neighbors algorithms are best suited to predicting Vp and ρb logs based on coefficients of determination (R2) greater than 70% and mean absolute percentage errors less than 4%. Given the high accuracy and low error results for Vp and ρb prediction in both hydrate and water-saturated sediments, we argue that our model can be applied in most LWD wells to predict Vp or ρb logs in near-seafloor siliciclastic sediments on continental slopes irrespective of the presence or absence of gas hydrate.

Naim, Fawz↗

DOE OSTI2023

A comparison of past and present computational methods for shape analysis of double-shell x-ray radiographs

Implosion symmetry is a key requirement in achieving a robust burning plasma in inertial confinement fusion experiments. In double-shell capsule implosions, we are interested in the shape of the inner shell as it pushes on the fuel. Shape analysis is a popular technique for studying said symmetry during implosion. Combinations of filtering and contour-finding algorithms are studied for their promise in reliably recovering Legendre shape coefficients from synthetic radiographs of double-shell capsules with applied levels of noise. A radial lineout max(slope) method when used on an image pre-filtered with non-local means and a variant of the marching squares algorithm are able to recover p 0 , p 2 , and p 4 maxslope Legendre shape coefficients with mean pixel discrepancy errors of 2.81 and 3.06, respectively, for the noisy synthetic radiographs we consider. Here, this improves upon prior radial lineout methods paired with Gaussian filtering, which we show to be unreliable and whose performance is dependent on input parameters that are difficult to estimate.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Combined Computer Vision and Deep Learning Approach for Rapid Drone-Based Optical Characterization of Parabolic Troughs

Optical accuracy is a primary driver of parabolic trough concentrating solar power (CSP) plant performance, but can be damaged by wind loads, gravity, error during installation, and regular plant operation. Collecting and analyzing optical measurements over an entire operating parabolic trough plant is difficult, given the large scale of typical installations. Distant Observer, a software tool developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, uses images of the absorber tube reflected in the collector mirror to measure both surface slope in the parabolic mirror and offset of the absorber tube from the ideal focal point. This technology has been adapted for fast data collection using low-cost commercial drones, but until recently still required substantial human labor to process large amounts of data. A new method leveraging advanced deep learning and computer vision tools can drastically reduce the time required to process images. This new method addresses the primary analysis bottleneck, identifying featureless, reflective mirror corner points to a high degree of accuracy. Recent work has shown promising results using computer vision methods. The combined deep learning and computer vision approach presented here proved highly effective and has the potential to further automate data collection and analysis, making the tool more robust. The method presented in this paper automatically identified 74.3% of mirror corners within 2 pixels of their manually marked counterparts and 91.9% within 3 pixels. This level of accuracy is sufficient for practical Distant Observer analysis within a target uncertainty. A commercial drone collected video of over 100 parabolic trough modules at an operating CSP plant to demonstrate the deep learning and computer vision method's usefulness in processing large amounts of data. These troughs were successfully analyzed using Distant Observer, paired with the new deep learning and computer vision algorithm, and can provide plant operators and trough designers with valuable insight about plant performance, operating strategies, and plant-wide optical error trends.

computer vision↗

DOE OSTI2020

Raytracing the long trace profiler

The optical design of the Long Trace Profiler optical system is explored with a commercial raytrace program, Zemax OpticStudio™ (ZOS)1, with the intent of finding and correcting sources of systematic error. ZOS provides both geometric raytracing tools and physical optics Gaussian beam propagation and diffraction image calculation tools, and two design modes, sequential component (SC) and non-sequential component (NSC) that are optimized for different aspects of the design process. The original LTP-II system employs a singlet lens with a 1250 mm focal length. It is optimized to provide minimum distortion over a surface slope angle range of ±5 mrad. Using the ZOS tools, we are able to simulate ghost rays that produce distortion in the beam spot image and can minimize the distortion by deliberate misalignment of the beamsplitter (BS) components. Unfortunately, the reference beam is compromised because of the component tilts. The most recent LTP500 system design simplifies the optical system and makes the reference beam usable again, even with misalignment of the polarizing beamsplitter (PBS). Two lenses are designed for the LTP500 - a cemented doublet that has been fabricated, and a singlet with one aspheric surface. Both have focal distances of 500 mm with an expanded angular measurement range of ±10 mrad. The aspheric singlet provides superior performance. ZOS allows the import of wavefront measurement data produced by commercial interferometer software. We apply the wavefront error measurement from the cemented doublet to the model to show that the 19nm RMS wavefront error needs to be improved by at least a factor of ten in order to reduce the systematic error to a level that will allow the LTP to approach its design limit of a few tens of nanoradians.

Takacs, Peter Z.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mapping tree height in complex terrain of northern China using ultra-high-resolution images

Tree height is a key parameter for estimating forest biomass and carbon sequestration. In recent years, notable progress has been made in mapping tree height using satellite imagery. However, existing tree height products show low accuracy in mountainous and complex terrains, and few studies typically addressed tree height estimations in mountain areas. This study examines the Mentougou district of Beijing, China, characterized by complex terrain and mountainous landscapes. We analyzed two methods for estimating tree height: one using only spectral features and another combining spectral features with topographic factors (elevation, slope, aspect). We used 3-m resolution PlanetScope 8-band multispectral imagery, with 710 field-measured individual tree heights averaged to obtain 471 pixel-level tree height values as ground-truth, to develop tree height prediction models using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) models. The results show that the XGBoost model consistently presented the highest accuracy for both methods evaluated. Specifically, the XGBoost model that combined spectral data with elevation and slope variables with an R² of 0.75 and an RMSE of 2.69 m. Using the XGBoost model, we generated the tree height map for the Mentougou area at 3 m resolution, showing tree heights ranging from 0.5 to 30.4 m, and the model’s prediction error standard deviations ranged from 2.50 to 4.71 m, indicating reliable performance across varied terrain. Additionally, we compared and evaluated the global tree height products, identifying limitations in the accuracy within complex terrains. This study demonstrates the potential for accurately predicting tree heights by combining high-resolution multispectral satellites with a terrain factor modeling approach.

Complex terrain↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spirometric traits show quantile-dependent heritability, which may contribute to their gene-environment interactions with smoking and pollution

Background: “Quantile-dependent expressivity” refers to a genetic effect that is dependent upon whether the phenotype (e.g., spirometric data) is high or low relative to its population distribution. Forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 ), and the FEV 1 /FVC ratio are moderately heritable spirometric traits. The aim of the analyses is to test whether their heritability (h 2 ) is constant over all quantiles of their distribution. Methods: Quantile regression was applied to the mean age, sex, height and smoking-adjusted spirometric data over multiple visits in 9,993 offspring-parent pairs and 1,930 sibships from the Framingham Heart Study to obtain robust estimates of offspring-parent (β OP ), offspring-midparent (β OM ), and full-sib regression slopes (β FS ). Nonparametric significance levels were obtained from 1,000 bootstrap samples. β OP s were used as simple indicators of quantile-specific heritability (i.e.,h 2 = 2β OP /(1+r spouse ), where r spouse was the correlation between spouses). Results: β OP ± standard error (SE) decreased by 0.0009 ± 0.0003 (P = 0.003) with every one-percent increment in the population distribution of FEV 1 /FVC, i.e., β OP ± SE were: 0.182 ± 0.031, 0.152 ± 0.015; 0.136 ± 0.011; 0.121 ± 0.013; and 0.099 ± 0.013 at the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the FEV 1 /FVC distribution, respectively. These correspond to h 2 ± SEs of 0.350 ± 0.060 at the 10th, 0.292 ± 0.029 at the 25th, 0.262 ± 0.020 at the 50th, 0.234 ± 0.025 at the 75th, and 0.191 ± 0.025 at the 90th percentiles of the FEV 1 /FVC ratio. Maximum mid-expiratory flow (MMEF) h 2 ± SEs increased 0.0025 ± 0.0007 (P = 0.0004) with every one-percent increment in its distribution, i.e.: 0.467 ± 0.046, 0.467 ± 0.033, 0.554 ± 0.038, 0.615 ± 0.042, and 0.675 ± 0.060 at the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of its distribution. This was due to forced expiratory flow at 75% of FVC (FEF75%), whose quantile-specific h 2 increased an average of 0.0042 ± 0.0008 for every one-percent increment in its distribution. It is speculated that previously reported gene-environment interactions may be partially attributable to quantile-specific h 2 , i.e., greater heritability in individuals with lower FEV 1 /FVC due to smoking or airborne particles exposure vs. nonsmoking, unexposed individuals. Conclusion: Heritabilities of FEV 1 /FVC, MMEF, and FEF75% from quantile-regression of offspring-parent and sibling spirometric data suggest their quantile-dependent expressivity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Momentum power spectrum of SDSS galaxies by massE cosmic ruler: 2.1×improvement in measure of growth rate

ABSTRACT Peculiar motion of galaxies probes the structure growth in the universe. In this study, we employ the galaxy stellar mass-binding energy (massE) relation with only two nuisance parameters to build the largest peculiar-velocity (PV) catalogue to date, consisting of 229 890 ellipticals from the main galaxy sample (MGS) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We quantify the distribution of the massE-based distances in individual narrow redshift bins (dz = 0.005), and then estimate the PV of each galaxy based on its offset from the Gaussian mean of the distribution. As demonstrated with the Uchuu-SDSS mock data, the derived PV and momentum power spectra are insensitive to accurate calibration of the massE relation itself, enabling measurements out to a redshift of 0.2, well beyond the current limit of z = 0.1 using other galaxy scaling laws. We then measure the momentum power spectrum and demonstrate that it remains almost unchanged if varying significantly the redshift bin size within which the distance is measured, as well as the intercept and slope of the massE relation, respectively. By fitting the spectra using the perturbation theory model with four free parameters, fσ8 is constrained to fσ8 = 0.459$^{+0.068}_{-0.069}$ over Δz = 0.02–0.2, 0.416$^{+0.074}_{-0.076}$ over Δz = 0.02–0.1, and 0.526$^{+0.133}_{-0.148}$ over Δz = 0.1–0.2. The error of fσ8 is 2.1 times smaller than that by the redshift space distortion (RSD) of the same sample. A Fisher matrix forecast illustrates that the constraint on fσ8 from the massE-based PV can potentially exceed that from the stage-IV RSD in late universe (z<0.5).

Shi, Yong (ORCID:0000000286146275)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generalized Theory and Realization of Reconfigurable Bandpass Filtering Equalizers

Here, in this article, a generalized theory of bandpass filtering equalizers is proposed. A filtering equalizer is a device that combines the frequency-selective properties of a filter with the controllable slope of an equalizer into a single component. The equations used to design the function for a desired slope are provided, and the design methodology to determine the necessary filtering polynomials is also shown. The controllable slope of the dual-function component is realized using variable capacitors, which are used to tune both a transmission zero and a matching network to achieve the desired slope. A third-order bandpass filtering equalizer is designed, fabricated, and measured to verify the generalized theory. The component is designed to operate at 1 GHz with a slope that can be reconfigured from 1 to 3 dB along the passband. This proposed filtering equalizer demonstrates the feasibility of a tunable, low-cost, size, weight, and power (C-SWaP) solution to enable increased flatness in the overall system response and thereby decrease the error vector magnitude (EVM) of future radio frequency (RF) systems and a design process that allows for future development of filtering equalizers.

Filter↗

DOE OSTI2022

Image-domain DAS 3D VSP elastic transmission tomography

SUMMARY Full-wavefield elastic imaging of active-source seismic data acquired by downhole receivers commonly offers higher-resolution subsurface images in the vicinity of a borehole compared to conventional surface seismic data sets, which can lack higher-frequency wavefield components due to longer travel paths and increased attenuation. An increasingly used approach for downhole acquisition is vertical seismic profiling (VSP), which has become more attractive when coupled with distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) using optical fibres installed in wells. The main difficulty for generating high-quality images with full-wavefield imaging tools for DAS VSP data, though, is the need for an accurate velocity model. To build plausible velocity models using active-source DAS VSP data, we adopt a 3-D image-domain elastic transmission tomography technique, originally developed for surface-recorded passive (microseismic) data, by exchanging the source and receiver positions (i.e. reciprocity) to mimic a passive-seismic surface monitoring scenario. The inversion approach exploits various images for each source constructed through time-reverse imaging (TRI) of downgoing P- and S-wave first-arrival waveforms. The TRI process uses the kinetic term of the (extended) PS energy imaging condition that exhibits sufficient sensitivity to velocity model errors. The method automatically updates the P- and S-wave velocity models to optimize image focusing via adjoint-state inversion. We illustrate the efficacy of the adopted elastic inversion technique using an active-source DAS 3-D VSP field data set acquired in the North Slope of Alaska. The numerical experiments demonstrate that the inverted elastic velocity models can be further used in full-wavefield acoustic/elastic imaging algorithms to obtain accurate subsurface images.

Oren, Can (ORCID:000000019534265X)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Charge Radius of Neutron-Deficient Ni 54 and Symmetry Energy Constraints Using the Difference in Mirror Pair Charge Radii

he nuclear root-mean-square charge radius of Ni 54 was determined with collinear laser spectroscopy to be R ( Ni 54 ) = 3.737 ( 3 ) fm . In conjunction with the known radius of the mirror nucleus Fe 54 , the difference of the charge radii was extracted as Δ R ch = 0.049 ( 4 ) fm . Based on the correlation between Δ R ch and the slope of the symmetry energy at nuclear saturation density ( L ), we deduced 21 ≤ L ≤ 88 MeV . The present result is consistent with the L from the binary neutron star merger GW170817, favoring a soft neutron matter EOS, and barely consistent with the PREX-2 result within 1 σ error bands. Our result indicates the neutron-skin thickness of Ca 48 as 0.15–0.21 fm.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Progress in Constraining Nuclear Symmetry Energy Using Neutron Star Observables Since GW170817

The density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy is among the most uncertain parts of the Equation of State (EOS) of dense neutron-rich nuclear matter. It is currently poorly known especially at suprasaturation densities partially because of our poor knowledge about isovector nuclear interactions at short distances. Because of its broad impacts on many interesting issues, pinning down the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy has been a longstanding and shared goal of both astrophysics and nuclear physics. New observational data of neutron stars including their masses, radii, and tidal deformations since GW170817 have helped improve our knowledge about nuclear symmetry energy, especially at high densities. Based on various model analyses of these new data by many people in the nuclear astrophysics community, while our brief review might be incomplete and biased unintentionally, we learned in particular the following: (1) The slope parameter L of nuclear symmetry energy at saturation density ρ0 of nuclear matter from 24 new analyses of neutron star observables was about L≈57.7±19 MeV at a 68% confidence level, consistent with its fiducial value from surveys of over 50 earlier analyses of both terrestrial and astrophysical data within error bars. (2) The curvature Ksym of nuclear symmetry energy at ρ0 from 16 new analyses of neutron star observables was about Ksym≈−107±88 MeV at a 68% confidence level, in very good agreement with the systematics of earlier analyses. (3) The magnitude of nuclear symmetry energy at 2ρ0, i.e., Esym(2ρ0)≈51±13 MeV at a 68% confidence level, was extracted from nine new analyses of neutron star observables, consistent with the results from earlier analyses of heavy-ion reactions and the latest predictions of the state-of-the-art nuclear many-body theories. (4) While the available data from canonical neutron stars did not provide tight constraints on nuclear symmetry energy at densities above about 2ρ0, the lower radius boundary R2.01=12.2 km from NICER’s very recent observation of PSR J0740+6620 of mass 2.08±0.07M⊙ and radius R=12.2–16.3 km at a 68% confidence level set a tight lower limit for nuclear symmetry energy at densities above 2ρ0. (5) Bayesian inferences of nuclear symmetry energy using models encapsulating a first-order hadron–quark phase transition from observables of canonical neutron stars indicated that the phase transition shifted appreciably both L and Ksym to higher values, but with larger uncertainties compared to analyses assuming no such phase transition. (6) The high-density behavior of nuclear symmetry energy significantly affected the minimum frequency necessary to rotationally support GW190814’s secondary component of mass (2.50–2.67) M⊙ as the fastest and most massive pulsar discovered so far. Overall, thanks to the hard work of many people in the astrophysics and nuclear physics community, new data of neutron star observations since the discovery of GW170817 have significantly enriched our knowledge about the symmetry energy of dense neutron-rich nuclear matter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring the Conditional Luminosity and Stellar Mass Functions of Galaxies by Combining the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 9, Survey Validation 3, and Year 1 Data

In this investigation, we leverage the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 9, Survey Validation 3, and Year 1 data sets to estimate the conditional luminosity functions and conditional stellar mass functions (CLFs and CSMFs) of galaxies across various halo mass bins and redshift ranges. To support our analysis, we utilize a realistic DESI mock galaxy redshift survey (MGRS) generated from a high-resolution Jiutian simulation. An extended halo-based group finder is applied to both MGRS catalogs and DESI observation. By comparing the r- and z-band luminosity functions (LFs) and stellar mass functions (SMFs) derived using both photometric and spectroscopic data, we quantified the impact of photometric redshift (photo-z) errors on the galaxy LFs and SMFs, especially in the low-redshift bin at the low-luminosity/mass end. By conducting prior evaluations of the group finder using MGRS, we successfully obtain a set of CLF and CSMF measurements from observational data. We find that at low redshift, the faint-end slopes of CLFs and CSMFs below ~10 9 h –2 L ⊙ (or h –2 M ⊙ ) evince a compelling concordance with the subhalo mass functions. After correcting the cosmic variance effect of our local Universe following Chen et al., the faint-end slopes of the LFs/SMFs turn out to also be in good agreement with the slope of the halo mass function.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Clustering of CODEX clusters

The clustering of galaxy clusters links the spatial nonuniformity of dark matter halos to the growth of the primordial spectrum of perturbations. The amplitude of the clustering signal is widely used to estimate the halo mass of astrophysical objects. The advent of cluster mass calibrations enables using clustering in cosmological studies. Aims. We analyze the autocorrelation function of a large contiguous sample of galaxy clusters, the Constrain Dark Energy with X-ray (CODEX) sample, in which we take particular care of cluster definition. These clusters were X-ray selected using the ROentgen SATellite All-Sky Survey and then identified as galaxy clusters using the code redMaPPer run on the photometry of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We develop methods for precisely accounting for the sample selection effects on the clustering and demonstrate their robustness using numerical simulations. Methods. Using the clean CODEX sample, which was obtained by applying a redshift-dependent richness selection, we computed the two-point autocorrelation function of galaxy clusters in the 0.1 < z < 0.3 and 0.3 < z < 0.5 redshift bins. We compared the bias in the measured correlation function with values obtained in numerical simulations using a similar cluster mass range. Results. By fitting a power law, we measured a correlation length r 0 = 18.7 ± 1.1 and slope γ = 1.98 ± 0.14 for the correlation function in the full redshift range. By fixing the other cosmological parameters to their nine-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe values, we reproduced the observed shape of the correlation function under the following cosmological conditions: Ω m0 = $0.22_{-0.03}^{+0.04}$ and S 8 = σ 8 (Ω m0 /0.3)0.5 = $0.85_{-0.08}^{+0.10}$ with estimated additional systematic errors of σ Ω m0 = 0.02 and σS 8 = 0.20. We illustrate the complementarity of clustering constraints by combining them with CODEX cosmological constraints based on the X-ray luminosity function, deriving Ωm = 0.25 ± 0.01 and σ 8 = $0.81_{-0.02}^{+0.01}$ with an estimated additional systematic error of σ Ω m0 = 0.07 and σ σ8 = 0.04. The mass calibration and statistical quality of the mass tracers are the dominant source of uncertainty.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling land surface processes over a mountainous rainforest in Costa Rica using CLM4.5 and CLM5

This study compares the performance of the Community Land Models (CLM4.5 and CLM5) against tower and ground measurements from a tropical montane rainforest in Costa Rica. The study site receives over 4000 mm of mean annual precipitation and has high daily levels of relative humidity. The measurement tower is equipped with eddy-covariance and vertical profile systems able to measure various micrometeorological variables, particularly in wet and complex terrain. In this work, results from point-scale simulations for both CLM4.5 and its updated version (CLM5) are compared to observed canopy flux and micrometeorological data. Both models failed to capture the effects of frequent rainfall events and mountainous topography on the variables of interest (temperatures, leaf wetness, and fluxes). Overall, CLM5 alleviates some errors in CLM4.5, but CLM5 still cannot precisely simulate a number of canopy processes for this forest. Soil, air, and canopy temperatures, as well as leaf wetness, remain too sensitive to incoming solar radiation rates despite updates to the model. As a result, daytime vapor flux and carbon flux are overestimated, and modeled temperature differences between day and night are higher than those observed. Slope effects appear in the measured average diurnal variations of surface albedo and carbon flux, but CLM5 cannot simulate these features. This study suggests that both CLMs still require further improvements concerning energy partitioning processes, such as leaf wetness process, photosynthesis model, and aerodynamic resistance model for wet and mountainous regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Temperature-dependent oxygen isotope fractionation in otoliths of juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha )

Oxygen thermometry has become a widely used technique for reconstructing thermal history in calcifying organisms but interpretation can be subject to predictive error from vital effects. To better understand these processes in Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) we experimentally constructed a temperature-dependent, otolith–water fractionation relationship for oxygen isotopes (δ 18 O) by rearing post-yolk absorptive juvenile fish at nominal temperatures from 6 to 21 °C. Temperature and otolith precipitation rate had significant effects on the otolith–water δ 18 O fractionation, but somatic growth rate did not. The slope of the δ 18 O fractionation equation also differed significantly from that of synthetic aragonite. Furthermore, our results suggest the expression of kinetic effects on δ 18 O fractionation in otoliths of Chinook salmon that are increasingly constrained at higher temperatures by other physical and physiological processes involved in mineral formation. Species-specific δ 18 O fractionation equations have considerable utility to reconstruct temperature history in Pacific salmon, but applications should recognize the potential for inferential uncertainty arising from interacting vital effects.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Surface radiation trends at North Slope of Alaska influenced by large-scale circulation and atmospheric rivers

Arctic amplification manifests as a pervasive warming trend emerging over the past century in near-surface air temperature throughout the Arctic that is double the globally averaged temperature increase throughout most of the year. It results from complex processes involving oceanic, atmospheric and terrestrial components which require detailed study to discern roles of the fundamental processes involved to improve predictions of the Arctic environment. We report on signals that are beginning to emerge, on a timescale predicted by recent satellite remote sensing studies, from the unique 25 year record of detailed surface-based radiometer measurements obtained by the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Facility North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site at Utqiaġvik, Alaska. Statistically significant warming trends are found at the site in the boreal fall, while a decrease in net radiation occurs in late summer. This decrease is driven primarily by the decrease in shortwave radiation resulting from increasing cloud liquid water path as observed by the microwave radiometer. The magnitude of the liquid water path trends is slightly larger than the root mean square error (RMSE) due to natural variability, while the magnitude of the net radiation trends is smaller than the RMSE natural variability, emphasizing that these signals are only just emerging. Analysis of prevailing meteorological regimes linking NSA with the Arctic Ocean and subarctic latitudes, and atmospheric rivers, suggests that specific changing circulation patterns are the primary driver for these summertime trends.

Lubin, Dan [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (Un↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of the Surface Fluxes for Heat and Momentum in Unstable Conditions with Machine Learning and Similarity Approaches for the LAFE Data Set

Abstract Measurements of three flux towers operated during the land atmosphere feedback experiment (LAFE) are used to investigate relationships between surface fluxes and variables of the land–atmosphere system. We study these relations by means of two machine learning (ML) techniques: multilayer perceptrons (MLP) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB). We compare their flux derivation performance with Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) and a similarity relationship using the bulk Richardson number (BRN). The ML approaches outperform MOST and BRN. Best agreement with the observations is achieved for the friction velocity. For the sensible heat flux and even more so for the latent heat flux, MOST and BRN deviate from the observations while MLP and XGB yield more accurate predictions. Using MOST and BRN for latent heat flux, the root mean square errors (RMSE) are 107 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 and 121 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 , respectively, as well as the intercepts of the regression lines are $$\approx 110$$ ≈ 110 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 . For the ML methods, the RMSEs reduce to 31 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for MLP and 33 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for XGB as well as the intercepts to just 4 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for MLP and $$-1$$ - 1 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for XGB with slopes of the regression lines close to 1, respectively. These results indicate significant deficiencies of MOST and BRN, particularly for the derivation of the latent heat flux. In fact, in contrast to the established theories, feature importance weighting demonstrates that the ML methods base their improved derivations on net radiation, the incoming and outgoing shortwave radiations, the air temperature gradient, and the available water contents, but not on the water vapor gradient. The results imply that further studies of surface fluxes and other turbulent variables with ML techniques provide great promise for deriving advanced flux parameterizations and their implementation in land–atmosphere system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

An improved method for direct incident solar radiation calculation from hourly solar insolation data in building energy simulation

Solar radiation considerably influences the energy consumption of buildings and the power production of building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems. Hourly solar insolation (Wh/m 2 ), represented as the amount of solar irradiance collected on the ground during a 1-h period, is the most common solar radiation data available and widely used in weather files applied in building energy modeling programs (BEMPs). Because the solar beam and position vary over time, the use of hourly insolation data as the input might result in errors in the estimation of the direct incident solar radiation on a particular surface. In this study, methods used in BEMPs for direct incident solar radiation calculations are first analyzed, and an improved method adopting a new algorithm for estimating the solar irradiance is proposed. Furthermore, the algorithm assumes that the solar irradiance changes linearly within a 1-h period and can be estimated based on the solar irradiance at the half clock and slope. The collected direct normal solar irradiance data of 2016 from eight solar radiation stations in China were used to demonstrate the proposed method and evaluate its performance by comparing the results with those from three conventional methods used in BEMPs along with the ground truth measurements. In addition, in this study, factors affecting the accuracy of the calculation results are explored. The results of the estimated direct incident solar radiation show that the proposed method achieves the best accuracy, followed by the methods used in DOE-2, EnergyPlus, and DeST. The proposed method guarantees that the hourly direct solar insolation will remain the same and reflects the variation in the direct solar irradiance across a 1-h time frame. The proposed method can be adopted in BEMPs to improve the accuracy of the solar radiation calculation, thereby improving the accuracy of the simulated building performance and the BIPV production.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗