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An approach for objective and quantitative technical and cost risk analysis during product development, which is applicable from the earliest stages, is discussed. The approach is supported by a software tool called the Analytical System for Uncertainty and Risk Estimation (ASURE). Details of ASURE, the underlying concepts and its application history, are provided.
Three questions to which software developers want accurate, precise answers are "How can the software system fail?", "mat bad things will happen if the software fails?t', and "How many failures will the software experience?". Numerous techniques have been devised to answer these questions; three of the best known are: 1) Software Fault Tree Analysis (SFTA) 2) Software Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (SFMECA 3) Software Fault/Failure Modeling. SFTA and SFMECA have been successfully used to analyze the flight software for a number of robotic planetary exploration missions, including Galileo, Cassini, and Deep Space 1. Given the increasing interest in reusing software components from mission to mission, one of us has developed techniques for reusing the corresponding portions of the SFTA and SFMECA, reducing the effort required to conduct these analyses. SFTA has also been shown to be effective in analyzing the security aspects of software systems; intrusion mechanisms and effects can easily be modeled using these techniques. The Bi- Directional Safety Analysis (BDSA) method combines a forward search (similar to SFMECA) from potential failure modes to their effects, with a backward search (similar to SFTA) from feasible hazards to the contributing causes of each hazard. BDSA offers an efficient way to identify latent failures. Recent work has extended BDSA to product-line applications such as flight-instrumentation displays and developed tool support for the reuse of the failure-analysis artifacts within a product line. BDSA has also been streamlined to support those projects having tight cost and/or schedule constraints for their failure analysis efforts. We discuss lessons learned from practice, describe available tools, and identi@ some future directions for the topic. A substantial amount of research has been devoted to estimating the number of failures that a software system will experience during test and operations, as well as the number of faults that have been inserted into that system during its development. One of us has found that the amount of structural change to a system during its development is strongly related to the number of faults inserted into it. Using techniques requiring no additional effort on the part of the development organization, the required measurements of structural evolution can be easily obtained from a development effort's configuration management system and readily transformed into an estimate of fault content. So far, structure-fault relationships have been identified for source code; current work seeks to examine artifacts available earlier in the lifecycle to determine if similar relationships between structure and fault content can be found. In particular, relationships between requirements change requests and the number of faults inserted into the implemented system would provide a significant improvement in our ability to control software quality during the early development phases.
A conceptual design is described for a community microgrid in Ukraine. Microgrid resources include solar photovoltaics, battery energy storage, and conventional natural gas fueled reciprocating engine generators. The conceptual architecture was informed by the microgrid developer, NREL subject matter experts, and the application of REopt, an NREL-developed software tool created for identification of least-cost combination of resources for achieving cost savings, resilience, and renewable energy goals. This fact sheet is a summary of a previously published technical report; see NREL/TP-7A40-89527, which includes conceptual architecture, estimates of key summary financial metrics, and sequence of operations.
This handbook documents the three software analysis processes the Space Station Software Analysis team uses to assess space station software, including their backgrounds, theories, tools, and analysis procedures. Potential applications of these analysis results are also presented. The first section describes how software complexity analysis provides quantitative information on code, such as code structure and risk areas, throughout the software life cycle. Software complexity analysis allows an analyst to understand the software structure, identify critical software components, assess risk areas within a software system, identify testing deficiencies, and recommend program improvements. Performing this type of analysis during the early design phases of software development can positively affect the process, and may prevent later, much larger, difficulties. The second section describes how software reliability estimation and prediction analysis, or software reliability, provides a quantitative means to measure the probability of failure-free operation of a computer program, and describes the two tools used by JSC to determine failure rates and design tradeoffs between reliability, costs, performance, and schedule.
The emergence of connected and automated vehicles and smart cities technologies create the opportunity for new mobility modes and routing decision tools, among many others. To achieve maximum mobility and minimum energy consumption, it is critical to understand the energy cost of decisions and optimize accordingly. The Route Energy prediction model (RouteE) enables accurate estimation of energy consumption for a variety of vehicle types over trips or sub-trips where detailed drive cycle data are unavailable. Applications include vehicle route selection, energy accounting and optimization in transportation simulation, and corridor energy analyses, among others. The software is a Python package that includes a variety of pre-trained models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). However, RouteE also enables users to train custom models using their own data sets, making it a robust and valuable tool for both fast calculations and rigorous, data-rich research efforts. The pre-trained RouteE models are established using NREL's Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator paired with approximately 1 million miles of drive cycle data from the Transportation Secure Data Center, resulting in energy consumption behavior estimates over a representative sample of driving conditions for the United States. Validations have been performed using on-road fuel consumption data for conventional and electrified vehicle powertrains. Transferring the results of the on-road validation to a larger set of real-world origin-destination pairs, it is estimated that implementing the present methodology in a green-routing application would accurately select the route that consumes the least fuel 90% of the time. The novel machine learning techniques used in RouteE make it a flexible and robust tool for a variety of transportation applications.
Existing predictive equations underestimate the metabolic costs of heavy military load carriage. Metabolic costs are specific to each type of military equipment, and backpack loads often impose the most sustained burden on the dismounted warfighter. This study aimed to develop and validate an equation for estimating metabolic rates during heavy backpacking for the US Army Load Carriage Decision Aid (LCDA), an integrated software mission planning tool. Thirty healthy, active military-age adults (3 women, 27 men; age, 25 ± 7 yr; height, 1.74 ± 0.07 m; body mass, 77 ± 15 kg) walked for 6–21 min while carrying backpacks loaded up to 66% body mass at speeds between 0.45 and 1.97 m·s -1 . A new predictive model, the LCDA backpacking equation, was developed on metabolic rate data calculated from indirect calorimetry. Model estimation performance was evaluated internally by k-fold cross-validation and externally against seven historical reference data sets. We tested if the 90% confidence interval of the mean paired difference was within equivalence limits equal to 10% of the measured metabolic rate. Estimation accuracy and level of agreement were also evaluated by the bias and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), respectively. Estimates from the LCDA backpacking equation were statistically equivalent ( P < 0.01) to metabolic rates measured in the current study (bias, -0.01 ± 0.62 W·kg -1 ; CCC, 0.965) and from the seven independent data sets (bias, -0.08 ± 0.59 W·kg -1 ; CCC, 0.926). The newly derived LCDA backpacking equation provides close estimates of steady-state metabolic energy expenditure during heavy load carriage. These advances enable further optimization of thermal-work strain monitoring, sports nutrition, and hydration strategies.
Topics covered include: Beat-to-Beat Blood Pressure Monitor; Measurement Techniques for Clock Jitter; Lightweight, Miniature Inertial Measurement System; Optical Density Analysis of X-Rays Utilizing Calibration Tooling to Estimate Thickness of Parts; Fuel Cell/Electrochemical Cell Voltage Monitor; Anomaly Detection Techniques with Real Test Data from a Spinning Turbine Engine-Like Rotor; Measuring Air Leaks into the Vacuum Space of Large Liquid Hydrogen Tanks; Antenna Calibration and Measurement Equipment; Glass Solder Approach for Robust, Low-Loss, Fiber-to-Waveguide Coupling; Lightweight Metal Matrix Composite Segmented for Manufacturing High-Precision Mirrors; Plasma Treatment to Remove Carbon from Indium UV Filters; Telerobotics Workstation (TRWS) for Deep Space Habitats; Single-Pole Double-Throw MMIC Switches for a Microwave Radiometer; On Shaft Data Acquisition System (OSDAS); ASIC Readout Circuit Architecture for Large Geiger Photodiode Arrays; Flexible Architecture for FPGAs in Embedded Systems; Polyurea-Based Aerogel Monoliths and Composites; Resin-Impregnated Carbon Ablator: A New Ablative Material for Hyperbolic Entry Speeds; Self-Cleaning Particulate Prefilter Media; Modular, Rapid Propellant Loading System/Cryogenic Testbed; Compact, Low-Force, Low-Noise Linear Actuator; Loop Heat Pipe with Thermal Control Valve as a Variable Thermal Link; Process for Measuring Over-Center Distances; Hands-Free Transcranial Color Doppler Probe; Improving Balance Function Using Low Levels of Electrical Stimulation of the Balance Organs; Developing Physiologic Models for Emergency Medical Procedures Under Microgravity; PMA-Linked Fluorescence for Rapid Detection of Viable Bacterial Endospores; Portable Intravenous Fluid Production Device for Ground Use; Adaptation of a Filter Assembly to Assess Microbial Bioburden of Pressurant Within a Propulsion System; Multiplexed Force and Deflection Sensing Shell Membranes for Robotic Manipulators; Whispering Gallery Mode Optomechanical Resonator; Vision-Aided Autonomous Landing and Ingress of Micro Aerial Vehicles; Self-Sealing Wet Chemistry Cell for Field Analysis; General MACOS Interface for Modeling and Analysis for Controlled Optical Systems; Mars Technology Rover with Arm-Mounted Percussive Coring Tool, Microimager, and Sample-Handling Encapsulation Containerization Subsystem; Fault-Tolerant, Real-Time, Multi-Core Computer System; Water Detection Based on Object Reflections; SATPLOT for Analysis of SECCHI Heliospheric Imager Data; Plug-in Plan Tool v3.0.3.1; Frequency Correction for MIRO Chirp Transformation Spectroscopy Spectrum; Nonlinear Estimation Approach to Real-Time Georegistration from Aerial Images; Optimal Force Control of Vibro-Impact Systems for Autonomous Drilling Applications; Low-Cost Telemetry System for Small/Micro Satellites; Operator Interface and Control Software for the Reconfigurable Surface System Tri-ATHLETE; and Algorithms for Determining Physical Responses of Structures Under Load.
With the tremendous growth in computer software, the demand has arisen for producing cost effective reliable software. Over the last 10 years an area of research has developed which attempts to address this problem by estimating a program's current reliability by modeling either the times between error detections or the error counts in past testing periods. A new tool for interactive software reliability analysis using the computer is described. This computer program allows the user to perform a complete reliability analysis using any of eight well-known models appearing in the literature. Some of the capabilities of the program are illustrated by means of an analysis of a set of simulated error data.
Rising data demands from artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) generating images, videos, and text have prompted increased need for larger and more robust data centers in the United States. Major companies interested in these larger data centers face the choice of linking them to existing regional grids, building stand-alone power supplies onsite, or a combination of both. The request, review, and approval process for new transmission lines to grids in the United States, however, has grown in recent years to times spans rivaling those of new construction for nuclear power plants. Building an islanded power supply for each data center is therefore becoming a prominent option. In this case study, several technologies are modeled in techno-economic simulations for long-term system costs subject to fixed electricity demand from a singular data center. A 250 MWe data center is assumed with additional 50 MWe for resiliency. Techno-economic simulations are conducted using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) software, which is a part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite. Technologies considered include solar, wind, lithium-ion batteries, and several types of nuclear reactors: large-scale reactors, small modular reactors, and microreactors. A low- and high-cost estimate for each technology is assumed to develop a range of expected economic performance. Low-cost estimates included several clean energy production tax credits. Different combinations of renewable energy generators with nuclear reactors are considered, ranging from a fully renewable-powered data center to a fully nuclear-powered data center. Historic time series of wind and solar availability from the Texas grid are used to train a reduced order model; this model then generates unique time series with similar characteristics of the training dataset. Multiple scenarios of weather and subsequent operations are simulated for each renewable-nuclear combination to determine total costs throughout the project lifetime. Fully renewable-powered configurations required large amounts of installed capacity (GW scale) in the simulations to meet the fixed demand of the data center. This is due to some scenarios in the historical dataset which captured low-wind and low-solar days, requiring over-building of these technologies as well as batteries to compensate for the low amounts of electricity generation. Fully nuclear-powered configurations outperformed the fully renewable and mixed renewable-nuclear configurations in terms of cost, with ranges between $1B and $10B in 2023 USDs compared to $40B+ for fully renewable configurations. Of the nuclear technologies, small modular reactors performed better economically than large-scale nuclear models due to lower projected capital costs, and both performed better than the microreactor models. These results demonstrate the applicability of firm, dispatchable electricity resources from baseload generators like nuclear power plants for operating facilities that run at constant power without daily variability.
Decarbonizing industrial manufacturing is a significant challenge in the effort to limit the impacts of global climate change. Additive manufacturing (AM) is one pathway for reducing the impacts of manufacturing as it creates parts layer-by-layer rather than by removing (i.e., subtracting) material from solid stock as with conventional techniques. This reduces material inputs and generates less waste, which can substantially lower life cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. However, AM adoption in the manufacturing sector has been slow, partly due to challenges in making a strong business case compared with more traditional and widely available techniques. This paper highlights the need for the development of simple screening analysis tools to speed the adoption of AM in the manufacturing sector by providing decision-makers easy access to important production life cycle emissions, and cost information. Details on the development of two Microsoft Excel software tools are provided: upgrades to an existing tool on the energy and carbon impacts of AM and a new tool for analyzing the major cost components of AM. A case study applies these two tools to the production of a lightweight aerospace bracket, showing how the tools can be used to estimate the environmental benefits and production costs of AM.
A work breakdown structure (WBS) is presented which encompasses the multiple facets (hardware, software, services, and other tasks) of the coal gasification program. The WBS is shown to provide the basis for the following: management and control; cost estimating; budgeting and reporting; scheduling activities; organizational structuring; specification tree generation; weight allocation and control; procurement and contracting activities; and serves as a tool for program evaluation.
Design of ExtraVehicular Activity (EVA) interfaces for International Space Station is important to successful assembly. This is highlighted by the recent rise in the estimate of time required for EVA during the assembly to 900 hours. The traditional method of evaluating EVA design is examination of mockups in neutral buoyancy testing. While effective, this is costly. Any tools for streamlining this process have positive cost and schedule implications for Station design. The human modelling software package Jack has been shown to be a useful tool in computer-aided design of space hardware requiring actuation in EVA. The package has been used to aid in the design of flight hardware for a Station Assembly Mission; evaluation was based on comparison of the computer simulations with neutral buoyancy simulations. When used to predict the feasibility of tasks, the software was found to be effective for reach and visibility evaluation. Some limitations have been encountered in prediction of work clearances. Another human simulator is currently being evaluated using the same hardware and comparisons to the same Neutral Buoyancy simulations. Preliminary results for ERGO, which is derived from robotics software, indicate similar strengths and weaknesses.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s Home Energy Score provides homeowners, buyers, and renters directly comparable and credible information about a home's estimated energy use and costs. Certified Qualified Assessors conduct low-cost assessments to provide each home a 1-10 score alongside a set of cost-effective upgrades to improve the score. As of February 2022, hundreds of assessors have delivered over 175,000 scores to homes across the country. Originally released in 2012 using DOE2.1e as the modeling backend, after years of effort, a new version of Home Energy Score was released in 2021 utilizing DOE's flagship energy modeling software, EnergyPlus. The updated architecture leverages modeling advancements and enables new building technologies to be added to the Scoring Tool. The new release represents a leap forward in harmonizing modeling assumptions across DOE and industry programs. In this paper we discuss the rigorous approach to model comparison with DOE2 undertaken prior to the update, utilizing test homes and real homes from the Home Energy Score database to strike a balance between consistency and more accurate energy predictions. We also discuss additional new capabilities, including improvements made to the upgrade recommendations methodology, the inclusion of an energy cost estimate metric based on ResStock analysis for use in home appraisals, and improved data analysis for quality assurance. Finally, we look at the impact Home Energy Score has had over the last decade and its future potential as its uptake in state energy plans, local ordinances, utility programs, and real estate data continues to grow.
The ever increasing need for lower density and higher temperature-capable materials for aircraft engines has led to the development of Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs). Today's aircraft engines operate with >3000"F gas temperatures at the entrance to the turbine section, but unless heavily cooled, metallic components cannot operate above approx.2000 F. CMCs attempt to push component capability to nearly 2700 F with much less cooling, which can help improve engine efficiency and performance in terms of better fuel efficiency, higher thrust, and reduced emissions. The NASA Glenn Research Center has been researching the benefits of the SiC/SiC CMC for engine applications. A CMC is made up of a matrix material, fibers, and an interphase, which is a protective coating over the fibers. There are several methods or architectures in which the orientation of the fibers can be manipulated to achieve a particular material property objective as well as a particular component geometric shape and size. The required shape manipulation can be a limiting factor in the design and performance of the component if there is a lack of bending capability of the fiber as making the fiber more flexible typically sacrifices strength and other fiber properties. Various analysis codes are available (pcGINA, CEMCAN) that can predict the effective Young's Moduli, thermal conductivities, coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE), and various other properties of a CMC. There are also various analysis codes (NASAlife) that can be used to predict the life of CMCs under expected engine service conditions. The objective of this summer study is to utilize and optimize these codes for examining the tradeoffs between CMC properties and the complex fiber architectures that will be needed for several different component designs. For example, for the pcGINA code, there are six variations of architecture available. Depending on which architecture is analyzed, the user is able to specify the fiber tow size, tow spacing, weave parameter, and angle of orientation of fibers. By holding the volume fraction of the fibers constant, variations in tow spacing can be explored for different architectures. The CMC material properties are usually calculated assuming the component is manufactured perfectly. However, this is typically not the case so that a quantification of the material property variability is needed to account for processing and/or manufacturing imperfections. The overall inputs and outputs are presented using a regression software to rapidly investigate the tradeoffs associated with fiber architecture, material properties, and ultimately cost. This information is then propagated through lifing models and Larson-Miller data to assess timehemperature-dependent CMC strength. In addition, a first order cost estimation will be quantified from a current qualitative perspective. This cost estimation includes the manufacturing challenges, such as tooling, as well as the component cost for a particular application. Ultimately, a cost to performance ratio should be established that compares the effectiveness of CMCs to their current rival, nickel superalloys.
JPL is NASA's prime center for deep space missions. In response to the need to reduce the cost and time to complete early concept studies and proposals JPL created the first concurrent engineering team in the aerospace industry: Team X. Started in 1995, Team X has carried out over 800 studies, dramatically reducing the time and cost involved, and has been the model for other concurrent engineering teams both within NASA and throughout the larger aerospace community. Since its inception, the software backbone of this highly successful design team - engaged in examining some of NASA's cutting edge concepts - has been the unassuming spreadsheet. Over the years the Team X spreadsheet-based tools have evolved from simple standalone engineering models into a networked spreadsheet intensive system with real time parameter updating. Recent new capabilities include stochastic cost estimation and a graphical drag and drop block diagram that automatically populates the related spreadsheet parameters of cost, mass and power. This paper describes how the spreadsheet functions within Team X: its history, architecture, current capabilities, enabling strengths and persistent weaknesses. In addition, the verification methods and institutional oversight that have evolved as the Team X products became increasingly critical to Laboratory success are also discussed.
Institutions need ways to retain valuable information even as experienced individuals leave an organization. Modern electronic systems have enough capacity to retain large quantities of information that can mitigate the loss of experience. Performance information for long-term space applications is relatively scarce and specific information (typically held by a few individuals within a single project) is often rather narrowly distributed. Spacecraft operate under severe conditions and the consequences of hardware and/or system failures, in terms of cost, loss of information, and time required to replace the loss, are extreme. These risk factors place a premium on appropriate choice of materials and components for space applications. An expert system is a very cost-effective method for sharing valuable and scarce information about spacecraft performance. Boeing has an artificial intelligence software package, called the Boeing Expert System Tool (BEST), to construct and operate knowledge bases to selectively recall and distribute information about specific subjects. A specific knowledge base to evaluate the on-orbit performance of selected materials on spacecraft has been developed under contract to the NASA SEE program. The performance capabilities of the Spacecraft Materials Selector (SMS) knowledge base are described. The knowledge base is a backward-chaining, rule-based system. The user answers a sequence of questions, and the expert system provides estimates of optical and mechanical performance of selected materials under specific environmental conditions. The initial operating capability of the system will include data for Kapton, silverized Teflon, selected paints, silicone-based materials, and certain metals. For situations where a mission profile (launch date, orbital parameters, mission duration, spacecraft orientation) is not precisely defined, the knowledge base still attempts to provide qualitative observations about materials performance and likely exposures. Prior to the NASA contract, a knowledge base, the Spacecraft Environments Assistant (SEA,) was initially developed by Boeing to estimate the environmental factors important for a specific spacecraft mission profile. The NASA SEE program has funded specific enhancements to the capability of this knowledge base. The SEA qualitatively identifies over 25 environmental factors that may influence the performance of a spacecraft during its operational lifetime. For cases where sufficiently detailed answers are provided to questions asked by the knowledge base, atomic oxygen fluence levels, proton and/or electron fluence and dose levels, and solar exposure hours are calculated. The SMS knowledge base incorporates the previously developed SEA knowledge base. A case history for previous flight experiment will be shown as an example, and capabilities and limitations of the system will be discussed.
Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (\mxmc {}) is a software package developed as a general capability for computing the statistics of outputs from an expensive, high-fidelity model by leveraging faster, low-fidelity models for speedup. Motivated by uncertainty propagation problems where classical Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is computationally intractable, various multi-model MC approaches have recently emerged that yield unbiased estimators with significantly reduced variance relative to MC for the same cost. These existing methods include multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC), multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC), and approximate control variates (ACV). Given a fixed computational budget and a collection of models with varying cost/accuracy, each method seeks a sample allocation strategy across the models that results in an estimator with optimal variance reduction. \mxmc {} is a versatile tool that enables convenient access to many existing multi-model MC approaches within one modular and extensible package. With \mxmc {}, users can easily compare existing methods to determine the best choice for their particular problem, while developers have a basis for implementing and sharing new variance reduction approaches. This report introduces the \mxmc {} software, providing a summary of the problem-solving workflow for users as well as a brief overview of the code layout for developers.
Task 5 consisted of two parts, wave energy converter (WEC) arrays and current energy converter (CEC) arrays. The two parts of the project were executed independently, and this report covers only the work on WECs. In this part of the task, the team characterized the behavior of and developed control schemes for wave energy converter (WEC) arrays that improved performance (i.e., maximized aggregate power generation and reduced the levelized cost of energy) over baseline, non-coordinated control approaches. Specifically, for WEC arrays: the team developed optimal layouts of arrays that considered the effect of WEC placement within an array on coordinated array control with real-time estimation schemes. The numerical codes developed through this task were made available to users for array design. These tools utilized existing commercial software as well as software developed within the project team.