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Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

land use change↗

NASA 1990 Multisensor Airborne Campaigns (MACs) for ecosystem and watershed studies

The Multisensor Airborne Campaign (MAC) focus within NASA's former Land Processes research program was conceived to achieve the following objectives: to acquire relatively complete, multisensor data sets for well-studied field sites, to add a strong remote sensing science component to ecology-, hydrology-, and geology-oriented field projects, to create a research environment that promotes strong interactions among scientists within the program, and to more efficiently utilize and compete for the NASA fleet of remote sensing aircraft. Four new MAC's were conducted in 1990: the Oregon Transect Ecosystem Research (OTTER) project along an east-west transect through central Oregon, the Forest Ecosystem Dynamics (FED) project at the Northern Experimental Forest in Howland, Maine, the MACHYDRO project in the Mahantango Creek watershed in central Pennsylvania, and the Walnut Gulch project near Tombstone, Arizona. The OTTER project is testing a model that estimates the major fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water through temperate coniferous forest ecosystems. The focus in the project is on short time-scale (days-year) variations in ecosystem function. The FED project is concerned with modeling vegetation changes of forest ecosystems using remotely sensed observations to extract biophysical properties of forest canopies. The focus in this project is on long time-scale (decades to millenia) changes in ecosystem structure. The MACHYDRO project is studying the role of soil moisture and its regulating effects on hydrologic processes. The focus of the study is to delineate soil moisture differences within a basin and their changes with respect to evapotranspiration, rainfall, and streamflow. The Walnut Gulch project is focused on the effects of soil moisture in the energy and water balance of arid and semiarid ecosystems and their feedbacks to the atmosphere via thermal forcing.

Wickland, Diane E.↗

Interannual Variability in Soil Trace Gas (CO2, N2O, NO) Fluxes and Analysis of Controllers

Interannual variability in flux rates of biogenic trace gases must be quantified in order to understand the differences between short-term trends and actual long-term change in biosphere-atmosphere interactions. We simulated interannual patterns (1983-1988) of global trace gas fluxes from soils using the NASA Ames model version of CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) in a transient simulation mode. This ecosystem model has been recalibrated for simulations driven by satellite vegetation index data from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) over the mid-1980s. The predicted interannual pattern of soil heterotropic CO2 emissions indicates that relatively large increases in global carbon flux from soils occurred about three years following the strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event of 1983. Results for the years 1986 and 1987 showed an annual increment of +1 Pg (1015 g) C-CO2 emitted from soils, which tended to dampen the estimated global increase in net ecosystem production with about a two year lag period relative to plant carbon fixation. Zonal discrimination of model results implies that 80-90 percent of the yearly positive increments in soil CO2 emission during 1986-87 were attributable to soil organic matter decomposition in the low-latitudes (between 30 N and 30 S). Soils of the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 N and 60 N) accounted for the residual of these annual increments. Total annual emissions of nitrogen trace gases (N2O and NO) from soils were estimated to vary from 2-4 percent over the time period modeled, a level of variability which is consistent with predicted interannual fluctuations in global soil CO2 fluxes. Interannual variability of precipitation in tropical and subtropical zones (30 N to 20 S appeared to drive the dynamic inverse relationship between higher annual emissions of NO versus emissions of N2O. Global mean emission rates from natural (heterotrophic) soil sources over the period modeled (1983-1988) were estimated at 57.1 Pg C-CO2yr-1, 9.8Tg (1012 g) N-NO yr-1, and 9.7 Tg N-N2O yr-1. Chemical fertilizer contributions to global soil N gas fluxes were estimated at between 1.3 to 7.3 Tg N-NO yr-1, and 1.2 to 4.0 Tg N-N2O yr-1.

Potter, C.↗

Utilization of Ancillary Data Sets for Conceptual SMAP Mission Algorithm Development and Product Generation

The planned Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission is one of the first Earth observation satellites being developed by NASA in response to the National Research Council's Decadal Survey, Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond [1]. Scheduled to launch late in 2014, the proposed SMAP mission would provide high resolution and frequent revisit global mapping of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state, utilizing enhanced Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) mitigation approaches to collect new measurements of the hydrological condition of the Earth's surface. The SMAP instrument design incorporates an L-band radar (3 km) and an L band radiometer (40 km) sharing a single 6-meter rotating mesh antenna to provide measurements of soil moisture and landscape freeze/thaw state [2]. These observations would (1) improve our understanding of linkages between the Earth's water, energy, and carbon cycles, (2) benefit many application areas including numerical weather and climate prediction, flood and drought monitoring, agricultural productivity, human health, and national security, (3) help to address priority questions on climate change, and (4) potentially provide continuity with brightness temperature and soil moisture measurements from ESA's SMOS (Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity) and NASA's Aquarius missions. In the planned SMAP mission prelaunch time frame, baseline algorithms are being developed for generating (1) soil moisture products both from radiometer measurements on a 36 km grid and from combined radar/radiometer measurements on a 9 km grid, and (2) freeze/thaw products from radar measurements on a 3 km grid. These retrieval algorithms need a variety of global ancillary data, both static and dynamic, to run the retrieval models, constrain the retrievals, and provide flags for indicating retrieval quality. The choice of which ancillary dataset to use for a particular SMAP product would be based on a number of factors, including its availability and ease of use, its inherent error and resulting impact on the overall soil moisture or freeze/thaw retrieval accuracy, and its compatibility with similar choices made by the SMOS mission. All decisions regarding SMAP ancillary data sources would be fully documented by the SMAP Project and made available to the user community.

freeze/thaw↗

Unexprected Changes in Soil Phosphorus Dynamics Following Tropical Deforestation to Cattle Pasture

Phosphorus (P) is widely believed to limit plant growth and organic matter storage in a large fraction of the world's lowland tropical rainforests. We investigated how the most common land use change in such forests, conversion to cattle pasture, affects soil P fractions along forest to pasture chronosequences in the central Brazilian Amazon and in southwestern Costa Rica. Our sites represent a broad range in rainfall, soil type, management strategies, and total soil P (45.2 - 1228.0 microng P / g soil), yet we found some unexpected and at times strikingly similar changes in soil P in all sites. In the Brazilian sites, where rainfall is relatively low and pasture management is more intense than in the Costa Rican sites, significant losses in total soil P and soil organic carbon (SOC) were seen with pasture age on both fine-textured oxisol and highly sandy entisol soils. However, P losses were largely from occluded, inorganic soil P fractions, while organic forms of soil P remained constant or increased with pasture age, despite the declines in SOC. In Costa Rica, SOC remained constant across the oxisol sites and increased from forest to pasture on the mollisols, while total soil P increased with pasture age in both sequences. The increases in total soil P were largely due to changes in organic P; occluded soil P increased only slightly in the mollisols, and remained unchanged in the older oxisols. We suggest that changes in the composition and/or the primary limiting resources of the soil microbial community may drive the changes in organic P. We also present a new conceptual model for changes in soil P following deforestation to cattle pasture.

Townsend, Alan R.↗

Stable isotopes as tracers of methane dynamics in Everglades marshes with and without active populations of methane oxidizing bacteria

The stable carbon isotopic composition of CH4 is used to study the processes that affect it during transport through plants from sediment to the atmosphere. The enhancement of CH4 flux from Cladium and Eleocharis over the flux from open water or clipped sites indicated that these plants served as gas conduits between the sediments and the atmosphere. Lowering of the water table below the sediment surface caused an Everglades sawgrass marsh to shift from emission of CH4 to consumption of atmospheric CH4. Cladium transported gases passively mainly via molecular diffusion and/or effusion instead of actively via bulk flow. Stable isotropic data gave no evidence that CH4 oxidation was occurring in the rhizosphere of Cladium. Both CH4 stable carbon isotope and flux data indicated a lack of CH4 oxidation at the sediment-water interface in Everglades marl soils and its presence in peat soils where 40 to 92 percent of the flux across the sediment-water interface was oxidized.

Happell, James D.↗

Ecological applications of high resolution spectrometry

Future directions of NASA's space program plans include a significant effort at studying the Earth as a system of interrelated ecosystems. As part of NASA's Earth Observing System (Eos) Program a series of space platforms will be launched and operated to study the Earth with a variety of active and passive instruments. Several of the Eos instruments will be capable of imaging the planet's surface reflectance on a large number of very narrow portions of the solar spectrum. After the development of appropriate algorithms, this reflectance information will be used to determine key parameters about the structure and function of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and the pattern and processes of those systems across large areas of the globe. Algorithm development applicable to terrestrial systems will permit the inference of ecological processes from high resolution spectrometry data, similar to that to be forthcoming from the Eos mission. The first summer was spent working with tropical soils and relating their reflectance characteristics to particle size, iron content, and color. This summer the emphasis is on vegetation and work was begun with the Forest Ecosystems Dynamics Project in the Earth Resources Branch where both optical and radar characteristics of a mixed conifer/hardwood forest in Maine are being studied for use in a ecological modeling effort. A major series of aircraft overflights will take place throughout the summer. Laboratory and field spectrometers are used to measure the spectral reflectance of a hierarchy of vegetation from individual leaves to whole canopies for eventual modeling of their nutrient content using reflectance data. Key leaf/canopy parameters are being approximated including chlorophyll, nitrogen, phosphorus, water content, and leaf specific weight using high resolution spectrometry alone. Measurements are made of carbon exchange across the landscape for input to a spatial modeling effort to gauge production within the forest. A Geographic Information System approach is used to associate these data, images, and other collateral information for the forest into a database with a common projection suitable for spatial modeling.

Lawrence, William T.↗

Advances in Land Surface Models and Indicators for Drought Monitoring and Prediction

Millions of people across the globe are affected by droughts every year, and recent droughts have highlighted the considerable agricultural impacts and economic costs of these events. Monitoring the state of droughts depends on integrating multiple indicators that each capture particular aspects of hydrologic impact and various types and phases of drought. As the capabilities of land-surface models and remote sensing have improved, important physical processes such as dynamic, interactive vegetation phenology, groundwater, and snow pack evolution now support a range of drought indicators that better reflect coupled water, energy and carbon cycle processes. In this work, we discuss these advances, including newer classes of indicators that can be applied to improve the characterization of drought onset, severity and duration. We utilize a new model-based drought reconstruction to illustrate the role of dynamic phenology and groundwater in drought assessment. Further, through case studies on flash droughts, snow droughts, and drought recovery, we illustrate the potential advantages of advanced model physics and observational capabilities, especially from remote sensing, in characterizing droughts.

Drought↗

Influence of Dynamic Ozone Dry Deposition on Ozone Pollution

Identifying the contributions of chemistry and transport to observed ozone pollution using regional‐to‐global models relies on accurate representation of ozone dry deposition. We use a recently developed configuration of the NOAA GFDL chemistry‐climate model – in which the atmosphere and land are coupled through dry deposition—to investigate the influence of ozone dry deposition on ozone pollution over northern midlatitudes. In our model, deposition pathways are tied to dynamic terrestrial processes, such as photosynthesis and water cycling through the canopy and soil. Small increases in winter deposition due to more process‐based representation of snow and deposition to surfaces reduce hemispheric‐scale ozone throughout the lower troposphere by 5–12 ppb, improving agreement with observations relative to a simulation with the standard configuration for ozone dry deposition. Declining snow cover by the end of the 21st‐century tempers the previously identified influence of rising methane on winter ozone. Dynamic dry deposition changes summer surface ozone by −4 to +7 ppb. While previous studies emphasize the importance of uptake by plant stomata, new diagnostic tracking of depositional pathways reveals a widespread impact of nonstomatal deposition on ozone pollution. Daily variability in both stomatal and nonstomatal deposition contribute to daily variability in ozone pollution. Twenty‐first century changes in summer deposition result from a balance among changes in individual pathways, reflecting differing responses to both high carbon dioxide (through plant physiology versus biomass accumulation) and water availability. Our findings highlight a need for constraints on the processes driving ozone dry deposition to test representation in regional‐to‐global models.

dry deposition↗

Using Giovanni in Investigating the Links between Environmental Processes and Drought in Northern sub-Saharan Africa

The northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, bounded on the north and south by the Sahara and the Equator, respectively, and stretching East-West across Africa, is very vulnerable because of the highly active environmental and meteorological processes associated with its unique location and human activities that adversely impact the regional water cycle. Over the years, this region has suffered frequent severe droughts that have caused tremendous hardship and loss of life to millions of its inhabitants due to the rapid depletion of the regional water resources, as exemplified by the dramatic drying of Lake Chad. On the other hand, the NSSA region shows one of the highest biomass-burning rates per unit land area among all regions of the world. Because of the high concentration and frequency of fires in this region, with the associated abundance of heat release and gaseous and particulate smoke emissions, biomass-burning activity is believed to be one of the drivers of the regional carbon and energy cycles, with serious implications for the water cycle. An interdisciplinary research effort funded by NASA is presently being focused on the NSSA region, to better understand possible connections between the intense biomass burning observed from satellite year after year across the region and the water cycle, through associated changes in land-cover, surface albedo, emissions, atmospheric processes, precipitation, soil moisture, surface evaporation and runoff, and groundwater recharge. A combination of remote sensing and modeling approaches is being utilized to investigate these multiple processes to clarify possible links between them. However, by using Giovanni, we are able to extract and jointly analyze some of the important relevant parameters to obtain a first insight into their relationships. In this presentation, we will discuss these preliminary results as well as the path toward improved understanding of the interrelationships and feedbacks between the water cycle components and the environmental change dynamics due to biomass burning and related processes in the NSSA region.

water resources↗

Constraining Aerosol Optical Models Using Ground-Based, Collocated Particle Size and Mass Measurements in Variable Air Mass Regimes During the 7-SEAS/Dongsha Experiment

During the spring of 2010, NASA Goddard's COMMIT ground-based mobile laboratory was stationed on Dongsha Island off the southwest coast of Taiwan, in preparation for the upcoming 2012 7-SEAS field campaign. The measurement period offered a unique opportunity for conducting detailed investigations of the optical properties of aerosols associated with different air mass regimes including background maritime and those contaminated by anthropogenic air pollution and mineral dust. What appears to be the first time for this region, a shortwave optical closure experiment for both scattering and absorption was attempted over a 12-day period during which aerosols exhibited the most change. Constraints to the optical model included combined SMPS and APS number concentration data for a continuum of fine and coarse-mode particle sizes up to PM2.5. We also take advantage of an IMPROVE chemical sampler to help constrain aerosol composition and mass partitioning of key elemental species including sea-salt, particulate organic matter, soil, non sea-salt sulphate, nitrate, and elemental carbon. Our results demonstrate that the observed aerosol scattering and absorption for these diverse air masses are reasonably captured by the model, where peak aerosol events and transitions between key aerosols types are evident. Signatures of heavy polluted aerosol composed mostly of ammonium and non sea-salt sulphate mixed with some dust with transitions to background sea-salt conditions are apparent in the absorption data, which is particularly reassuring owing to the large variability in the imaginary component of the refractive indices. Extinctive features at significantly smaller time scales than the one-day sample period of IMPROVE are more difficult to reproduce, as this requires further knowledge concerning the source apportionment of major chemical components in the model. Consistency between the measured and modeled optical parameters serves as an important link for advancing remote sensing and climate research studies in dynamic aerosol-rich environments like Dongsha.

Bell, Shaun W.↗

Multi-Level Experimental and Analytical Evaluation of Two Composite Energy Absorbers

Two composite energy absorbers were developed and evaluated at NASA Langley Research Center through multi-level testing and simulation performed under the Transport Rotorcraft Airframe Crash Testbed (TRACT) research program. A conical-shaped energy absorber, designated the conusoid, was evaluated that consisted of four layers of hybrid carbon-Kevlar plain weave fabric oriented at [+45 deg/-45 deg/-45 deg/+45 deg] with respect to the vertical, or crush, direction. A sinusoidal-shaped energy absorber, designated the sinusoid, was developed that consisted of hybrid carbon-Kevlar plain weave fabric face sheets, two layers for each face sheet oriented at +/-45deg with respect to the vertical direction and a closed-cell ELFOAM P200 polyisocyanurate (2.0-lb/cu ft) foam core. The design goal for the energy absorbers was to achieve average floor-level accelerations of between 25- and 40-g during the full-scale crash test of a retrofitted CH-46E helicopter airframe, designated TRACT 2. Variations in both designs were assessed through dynamic crush testing of component specimens. Once the designs were finalized, subfloor beams of each configuration were fabricated and retrofitted into a barrel section of a CH-46E helicopter. A vertical drop test of the barrel section was conducted onto concrete to evaluate the performance of the energy absorbers prior to retrofit into TRACT 2. The retrofitted airframe was crash tested under combined forward and vertical velocity conditions onto soil, which is characterized as a sand/clay mixture. Finite element models were developed of all test articles and simulations were performed using LS-DYNA, a commercial nonlinear explicit transient dynamic finite element code. Test-analysis results are presented for each energy absorber as comparisons of time-history responses, as well as predicted and experimental structural deformations and progressive damage under impact loading for each evaluation level.

Jackson, Karen E.↗

The Development of Two Composite Energy Absorbers for Use in a Transport Rotorcraft Airframe Crash Testbed (TRACT 2) Full-Scale Crash Test

Two composite energy absorbers were developed and evaluated at NASA Langley Research Center through multi-level testing and simulation performed under the Transport Rotorcraft Airframe Crash Testbed (TRACT) research program. A conical-shaped energy absorber, designated the conusoid, was evaluated that consisted of four layers of hybrid carbon-Kevlar plain weave fabric oriented at [+45deg/-45deg/-45deg/+45deg] with respect to the vertical direction. A sinusoidal-shaped energy absorber, designated the sinusoid, was developed that consisted of hybrid carbon-Kevlar plain weave fabric face sheets, two layers for each face sheet oriented at +/-45deg with respect to the vertical direction, and a closed-cell ELFOAM P200 polyisocyanurate (2.0-lb/cu ft) foam core. The design goal for the energy absorbers was to achieve average floor-level accelerations of between 25- and 40-g during the full-scale crash test of a retrofitted CH-46E helicopter airframe, designated TRACT 2. Variations in both designs were assessed through dynamic crush testing of component specimens. Once the designs were finalized, subfloor beams of each configuration were fabricated and retrofitted into a barrel section of a CH-46E helicopter. A vertical drop test of the barrel section was conducted onto concrete to evaluate the performance of the energy absorbers prior to retrofit into TRACT 2. The retrofitted airframe was crash tested under combined forward and vertical velocity conditions onto soft soil. Finite element models were developed of all test articles and simulations were performed using LS-DYNA, a commercial nonlinear explicit transient dynamic finite element code. Test-analysis results are presented for each energy absorber as comparisons of time-history responses, as well as predicted and experimental structural deformations and progressive damage under impact loading for each evaluation level.

Littell, Justin D.↗

A Process-Model Perspective on Recent Changes in the Carbon Cycle of North America

Continental North America has been found to be a carbon (C) sink over recent decades by multiple studies employing a variety of estimation approaches. However, several key questions and uncertainties remain with these assessments. Here we used results from an ensemble of 19 state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models from the TRENDYv9 project to improve these estimates and study the drivers of its interannual variability. Our results show that North America has been a C sink with a magnitude of 0.37 ± 0.38 (mean and one standard deviation) PgC year−1 for the period 2000–2019 (0.31 and 0.44 PgC year−1 in each decade); split into 0.18 ± 0.12 PgC year−1 in Canada (0.15 and 0.20), 0.16 ± 0.17 in the United States (0.14 and 0.17), 0.02 ± 0.05 PgC year−1 in Mexico (0.02 and 0.02) and 0.01 ± 0.02 in Central America and the Caribbean (0.01 and 0.01). About 57% of the new C assimilated by terrestrial ecosystems is allocated into vegetation, 30% into soils, and 13% into litter. Losses of C due to fire account for 41% of the interannual variability of the mean net biome productivity for all North America in the model ensemble. Finally, we show that drought years (e.g., 2002) have the potential to shift the region to a small net C source in the simulations (−0.02 ± 0.46 PgC year−1). Our results highlight the importance of identifying the major drivers of the interannual variability of the continental-scale land C cycle along with the spatial distribution of local sink-source dynamics.

Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo↗

Emissions of biogenic sulfur gases from Alaskan tundra

Fluxes of the biogenic sulfur gases carbonyl sulfide (COS), dimethyl sulfide (DMS), methyl mercaptan (MeSH), and carbon disulfide (CS2) were determined for several freshwater and coastal marine tundra habitats using a dynamic enclosure method and gas chromatography. In the freshwater tundra sites, highest emissions, with a mean of 6.0 nmol/m(sup -2)H(sup -1) (1.5-10) occurred in the water-saturated wet meadow areas inhabited by grasses, sedges, and Sphagnum mosses. In the drier upland tundra sites, highest fluxes occurred in areas inhabited by mixed vegetation and labrador tea at 3.0 nmol/m(sup -2)h(sup -1) (0-8.3) and lowest fluxes were from lichen-dominated areas at 0.9 nmol/m(sup -2)h(sup -1). Sulfur emissions from a lake surface were also low at 0.8 nmol/m(sup -2)h(sup -1). Of the compounds measured, DMS was the dominant gas emitted from all of these sites. Sulfure emissions from the marine sites were up to 20-fold greater than fluxes in the freshwater habitats and were also dominated by DMS. Emissions of DMS were highest from intertidal soils inhabited by Carex subspathacea (150-250 nmol/m(sup -2)h(sup -1)). This Carex sp. was grazed thoroughly by geese and DMS fluxes doubled when goose feces were left within the flux chamber. Emissions were much lower from other types of vegetation which were more spatially dominant. Sulfure emissions from tundra were among the lowest reported in the literature. When emission data were extrapolated to include all tundra globally, the global flux of biogenic sulfur from this biome is 2-3 x 10(exp 8) g/yr. This represents less than 0.001 percent of the estimated annual global flux (approximately 50 Tg) of biogenic sulfur and less than 0.01 percent of the estimated terrestrial flux. The low emissions are attributed to the low availability of sulfate, certain hydrological characteristics of tundra, and the tendency for tundra to accumulate organic matter.

Hines, Mark E.↗

Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In addition, a comparison of evapotranspiration and soil moisture estimates over peatlands will be presented, albeit only with limited ground-based validation data. We will discuss strengths and weaknesses of the new model by focusing on time series of specific validation sites.

Bechtold, M.↗

The Multi-Mission Earth Entry Vehicle for Sample Return Missions – Past, Present, and Future

The Multi-Mission Earth Entry Vehicle (MMEEV) is an enabling technology developed at NASA’s Langley Research Center (LaRC) over the last two decades for returning samples to Earth across a wide array of space science missions. Currently, the MMEEV is being considered for NASA’s Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission. The original vehicle concept, the Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV), was innovated at LaRC in 1998 as a robust solution to return Mars soil samples to Earth under stringent backward contamination requirements. These backward contamination requirements drove the EEV to have higher reliability than any capsule previously designed for a return-to-Earth sample return mission. The EEV achieved this high reliability by employing a passive (no active systems) vehicle architecture optimized for fault tolerance in a compact, low-mass configuration that is extensible to virtually any sample return mission. The original EEV concept utilized a carbon-carbon primary structure with high-density carbon phenolic thermal protection system. The capsule had a 60-degree sphere-cone forebody and a backshell geometry uniquely tailored to produce aerodynamics that would passively re-orient the vehicle if it entered the atmosphere with an off-nominal attitude. Contrary to every other sample return capsule conceived at the time, the EEV was designed to land without a parachute. The vehicle incorporated an integral energy-absorbing crushable structure that protected the Mars sample for landings on surfaces ranging from soft soil to solid concrete. This paper describes 20 years of technological advancements LaRC has incorporated into the EEV architecture to evolve it from the original, MSR-enabling vehicle, to a true multi-mission capability relevant to any sample return mission. The vehicle’s unique Integrated Composite Stiffener Structure (ICoSS) has been optimized for specific strength - supporting high-G atmospheric entries with steep entry angles that produce precise landing footprints on the ground. The vehicle geometry has been refined through wind tunnel testing and computational fluid dynamics simulations to improve the vehicle’s aerodynamic stability and robustness to off-nominal conditions from hypersonic to subsonic flight. The resulting configuration of the current MMEEV architecture is described, with details provided on its sample carrying capacity and atmospheric entry trajectory capabilities. The upgraded vehicle performance is mapped into current space science objectives, showing how the MMEEV supports future sample return missions and continues to be an enabling technology for NASA’s vision to return samples from Mars.

J M Corliss↗

LEO Sensor to GEO Sensor Algorithm Transfer Models for Land Surface Temperature

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key climate observable used to detect changes in the Earth’s surface energy budget that influence carbon and water cycles. Land surface temperature exhibits strong diurnal variability, which geostationary satellites can observe at scale thanks to their temporal resolution. Due to anthropogenic climate and land use changes, the surface energy balance has been considerably modified and may be described by changes in diurnal temperature range and extremes. Using high performance computing and datasets from the NASA Earth Exchange, we exploit co-located, co-temporal observations from low-earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) sensors to develop a deep learning-based method for LEO-to-GEO algorithm emulation. Our model is trained to predict MODIS Terra LST from GOES-16 thermal bands and achieves validation error <2K. Application of the model to unseen times of day (observed by MODIS Aqua) and a new GEO sensor (Himawari-8) observing an unseen spatial domain, demonstrate the generalization of the deep learning model across space, time and spectra. Communicating diurnal LST variability observed by geostationary satellites can have impacts in multiple disciplines, from understanding of snow, vegetation and soil dynamics, to recognizing trends in heat events relevant to human health.

Kate Marie Duffy↗