Dependence of subhourly solar variability statistics on time interval and cloud vertical position
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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Verification of Adaptive Protection in Hardware in the Loop for Coordination with Solar Variability
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Summers, Adam Kelly↗
New Observations of Solar Plasma Variability from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)
The launch of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) in February 2010 now allows for continuous observations of the Sun on all times scales from seconds to years. The variations in the solar plasma on these time scales cause significant deviations in the Earth and space environments on similar time scales, such as affecting the densities and composition of particular atoms, molecules, and ions in the atmospheres of Earth and other planets. Presented and discussed will be examples of initial results from SDO that show how different temperature plasmas (from 50,OOOK to 20MK+), corresponding to different solar features in the solar atmosphere, evolve and change during solar eruptive events. The presentation will emphasize how the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), the first satellite in NASA's Living with a Star program, has already improved upon current observations and how it will continue provide further insights into the variable Sun and its Heliospheric influence.
Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗
The spectral nature of solar irradiance variability and its phase relationship to solar activity
Rather firm conclusions regarding the nature of short term solar variability have been reached on the basis of recent studies of continuous time series of solar irradiance measurements. The measurements have been conducted with the aid of satellite mounted cavity radiometers. The present paper provides an interim report on further analysis concerning the spectral nature of solar variation and its relationship to other indicators of solar variability. It is pointed out that the Nimbus 7-ERB mission was able to deliver rather precise and continuous measures of solar irradiance at a variety of spectral bands. Spectral variations observed in the Nimbus 7-ERB solar monitor measurements appear to correspond to a quasi-black body shift due to the appearance of large earth-facing sun spots.
Smith, E. A.↗
Application of Singular Spectrum Analysis to Solar Irradiance Variability
Studies of solar variability improve our knowledge of the internal structure and dynamical processes taking place within the Sun that lead to solar irradiance changes. Becuase of the astrophysical and climatic significance of irradiance variability, considerable effort has been devoted to model and understand its physical origin.
Singular Spectrum Analysis↗
A generalized correlation of experimental flat-plate collector performance
A generalized correlation of flat-plate collector performance obtained by outdoor and indoor test methods is presented. This correlation shows that the indoor (simulator) test approach is a special case of the general situation of variable solar conditions. The important feature of the generalized correlation is that it permits a separation of the solar variables (flux, incident angle, etc.) which affect collector performance from the collector parameters (absorptance, transmittance, heat loss, etc.) which also affect collector performance and which are uniquely part of a given collector design. The correlation permits an evaluation of the relative merits of using instantaneous, hourly and daily collector efficiencies in obtaining a good collector correlation. The question of the transient behavior outdoors of a collector is an important part of determining whether to use instantaneous, hourly or daily efficiency values in a correlation approach. Correlation of the experimental performance of collectors allows the following: (1) comparisons of different collector designs, (2) collector performance prediction under conditions that differ from the conditions of the test program, and (3) monitoring performance degradation effects.
Simon, F. F.↗
Problems of interior structure, the solar dynamo and the role of SCADM in providing interior diagnostics
What is already known about the structure of the Sun, the motion of its convective zone, and the solar cycle is reviewed. Topics discussed include solar variability, solar 'seismology', velocity patterns, magnetic fields, and the dynamo theory. Observations are needed to determine global properties (solar luminosity and radius), oscillations (p and g models), velocities (variation of rotation with time and depth), and magnetic fields.
Weiss, N. O.↗
The Sun as a Variable Star: Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variations; Colloquium of the International Astronomical Union, 143rd, Boulder, CO, Jun. 20-25, 1993
Variations in solar and stellar irradiances have long been of interest. An International Astronomical Union (IAU) colloquium reviewed such relevant subjects as observations, theoretical interpretations, and empirical and physical models, with a special emphasis on climatic impact of solar irradiance variability. Specific topics discussed included: (1) General Reviews on Observations of Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variability; (2) Observational Programs for Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variability; (3) Variability of Solar and Stellar Irradiance Related to the Network, Active Regions (Sunspots and Plages), and Large-Scale Magnetic Structures; (4) Empirical Models of Solar Total and Spectral Irradiance Variability; (5) Solar and Stellar Oscillations, Irradiance Variations and their Interpretations; and (6) The Response of the Earth's Atmosphere to Solar Irradiance Variations and Sun-Climate Connections.
Pap, Judit M.↗
Solar Irradiance Variability Monitor for the Galileo Solar Space Telescope Mission: Concept and Challenges
Long and reliable total solar irradiance (TSI) time series is one of the essential parameters for understanding solar contributions to climate change. The minor fluctuations of TSI in long timescales could impact the energy balance. Despite the improvement of accurate measurements provided by the instruments, at the time, long-term TSI variability and its effects had not been established. The space-borne radiometer era provided observations in short timescales from minutes to years. Therefore, this study presents an overview of irradiance observations, highlighting the importance of following its variability in different time scales. In this context, the Galileo Solar Space Telescope that has been developed by the Institute for Space Research (INPE), Brazil, includes the Irradiance Monitor Module with a radiometer cavity like the classical design and a next-generation compact radiometer.
total solar irradiance (TSI)↗
Improving Prediction of Surface Solar Irradiance Variability by Integrating Observed Cloud Characteristics and Machine Learning
A 5-year, 1-minute resolution observational dataset of clouds and solar radiation was produced that includes two metrics of the variability in surface solar irradiance due to cloud type and fractional sky cover. Multiple regression models were trained to fit observations of surface solar irradiance variability from those two cloud property predictors. We found that ensemble tree-based methods, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine, have the least overfitting issues and showed the best performance with an R2 of 0.42. While the observational data trained in this study was only from one site, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, initial comparisons of the seasonality of the statistics suggest that these results are relatively weather regime independent; the generality of such a finding across sites will be tested in future work. The observational data and developed machine learning model are being used to create a numerical weather prediction model parameterization to enable day-ahead solar variability prediction in a computationally efficient way. This is a first step towards creating a new paradigm of predicting day-ahead variability with the potential to provide a new tool to improve grid operation, planning, and resilience.
Riihimaki, Laura↗
Solar Plasma Variability Observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory
The launch of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) in February 2010 allows for continuous observations of the Sun on all times scales from seconds to years. These variations in the solar plasma cause significant deviations in the Earth and space environments on similar time scales, such as affecting the atmospheric densities and composition of particular atoms, molecules, and ions in the atmospheres of the Earth and other planets. Presented and discussed will be examples of initial results using the data from SDO that show how we can trace the origins of solar activity from inside the Sun using different wavelengths, and therefore different temperatures (from 50,OOOK to 20MK+) that cover the atmosphere and plasma temperature range of the solar atmosphere. The presentation will emphasize how the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), the first satellite in NASA's Living with a Star program, is going to improve upon current observations and provide further insights into the variable Sun and its Heliospheric influence.
Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗
Influence of Short-Term Solar UV Variability on the Determination of Solar Cycle Minimum
Smoothing solar UV data on rotational timescale (approx. 27 days) improves identification of solar minimum. Smoothing intervals which are not multiples of rotational period (e.g. 35 days) can leave measurable residual signal. No evidence found for periodic behavior on intermediate (50-250 days) time scales during Cycle 22, based on data from three solar UV instruments.
Cebula, Richard P.↗
Solar EUV Variability from FISM and SDO/EVE During Solar Minimum, Active, and Flaring Time Periods
The Living With a Star (LWS) Focus Science Team has identified three periods of different solar activity levels for which they will be determining the Earth's Ionosphere and Thermosphere response. Not only will the team be comparing individual models (e.g. FLIP, T1MEGCM, GLOW) outcome driven by the various levels of solar activity, but the models themselves will also be compared. These models all rely on the input solar EUV (0.1 -190 nm) irradiance to drive the variability. The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) and the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) onboard provide the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) provide the most accurate quantification of these irradiances. Presented and discussed are how much the solar EUV irradiance changes during these three scenarios, both as a function of activity and wavelength.
Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗
Long-Term Solar Irradiance Variability
Measurements of the solar energy throughout the solar spectrum and understanding its variability provide important information about the physical processes and structural changes in the solar interior and in the solar atmosphere...The aim of this paper is to discuss the solar-cycle-related long-term changes in solar total and UV irradiances. The spaceborne irradiance observations are compared to ground-based indices of solar magnetic activity, such as the Photometric Sunspot Index, full disk magnetic flux, and the Mt. Wilson Magnetic Plage Strength Index.
total solar irradiance UV irradiance soalr magneti↗
Total solar irradiance variability - 5 years of ERBE data
Data obtained by the ERBS solar monitors measuring total solar irradiance variability are discussed. The ERBS and NOAA-99 monitors derived 1365 W/sq m as the magnitude of the solar irradiance, normalized to 1 astronomical unit. The NOAA-10 monitor yielded 1363 W/m as the magnitude of the irradiance. The long-term precision of the monitors was demonstrated by the detection of the decreasing and increasing trends in the irradiance at levels of the order of 0.03 to 0.05 percent per year. The ERBS and NOAA-9 measurements demonstrated that solar variability exists in a systematic mode which is directly correlated with the solar magnetic activity, indicated by sunspot activity. It is argued that during the decline of sunspot cycle 22, the solar irradiance variability may be entirely different from that which was observed during the decline of cycle 21.
Lee, Robert B., III↗
Long-term Solar Irradiance Variability: 1984-1989 Observations
Long-term variability in the total solar irradiance has been observed in the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) solar monitor measurements. The monitors have been used to measure the irradiance from the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA-9 and NOAA-10 spacecraft platforms since October 25, 1984, January 23, 1985, and October 22, 1986, respectively. Before September 1986, the ERBS irradiance values were found to be decreasing -0.03 percent per year. This period was marked by decreasing solar magnetic activity. Between September 1986 and mid-1989, the irradiance values increased approximately 0.1 percent. The latter period was marked by increasing solar activity which was associated with the initiations of the sunspot cycle number 22 and of a new 22-year Hale solar magnetic cycle. Therefore, long-term solar-irradiance variability appears to be correlated directly with solar activity. The maximum smoothed sunspot number occurred during September 1989, according to the Sunspot Index Data Center. Therefore, the recent irradiance increasing trend should disappear during early 1990 and change into a decreasing trend if the observed irradiance variability is correlated more so with the 11-year sunspot cycle than the 22-year Hale cycle. The ERBE irradiance values are presented and compared with sunspot activity for the 1984 to 1989 period. The ERBE values are compared with those available from the Nimbus-7 and Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft experiments.
Lee, Robert B., III↗
1978-1988 Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Variability Trends
Total solar irradiance (TSI), normalized to the mean earth-sun distance, is analyzed to assess long-term solar variability which may affect climate. TSI data sets are reviewed primarily from the 1984-1999 Earth Radiation Budgets Satellite (ERBS), 1978-1993 Nimbus7, 1980-1989 Solar Maximum Mission (SMM), 19911998 Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS), and 1996-1998 Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/ Variability of solar IRradiance and Gravity Oscillations (VIRGO) Spacecraft missions. The data sets indicate that 1365 W/sq m [Watts per meter square] is the most likely TSI amplitude at minimum solar magnetic activity as indicated by minimum sunspot numbers. The TSI long-term variability component was found to vary with a period of approximately 10 years and with an amplitude of 2 W/sq m. An empirical TSI fit model, based upon 10.7-cm solar radio fluxes and prompt photometric sunspot indices, was used to characterize TSI variability. Comparisons among TSI measurements and empirical fit trends are reviewed as well as inconsistencies among current spacecraft TSI data set trends. The 1996-1998, SOHO/VIRGO measurement indicate stronger TSI increasing trends than those suggested by the corresponding ERBS and UARS measurement and by the empirical model fit. 1978-1999 TSI data sets are analyzed to identify the probable existence of another long-term TSI variability component.
Lee, Robert B., III↗
Solar UV variability
Measurements from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) provide solar UV flux in the 160 to 400 nm wavelength range, backed up by independent measurement in the 115 to 305 nm range from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). The full disc UV flux from spatially resolved measurements of solar activity was modeled, which provides a better understanding of why the UV variations have their observed temporal and wavelength dependencies. Long term, intermediate term, and short term variations are briefly examined.
Donnelly, Richard F.↗