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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Population Viability Analysis (PVA) as a Platform for Predicting Outcomes of Management Options for the Florida Scrub-Jay in Brevard County

The Florida scrub-jay (FSJ) is a species in decline because of extinction debt caused by habitat fragmentation and degradation. Understanding and managing the species and its habitats is challenging due to the complex interactions among the social system, a dynamic mosaic of scrub habitat, and active management. To provide insights into the possible fates of the FSJ populations of mainland, cape, and island sections of Brevard County, we modeled the population dynamics using the Vortex population viability analysis (PVA) software. Vortex is an individual-based simulation that allowed us to include such factors as demographic rates dependent on habitat state, impact of helpers on breeding success, and helper to breeder transition probabilities responding to availability of nearby vacant optimal habitat and vacancies due to the death of breeders. Detailed modeling of the FSJ was possible only because a lot of data about the species and its habitats have been gathered over decades of intensive research. We followed a phased approach to constructing population models that incorporated the best available science and data to address a variety of conservation actions. The first phase focused on constructing a model that incorporates sociobiology and source-sink habitat dynamics. This model allowed us to address some of the most important questions about population size and habitat quality. Once the model framework was in place, we considered the real landscapes and actual local populations, rather than just generic representations of typical FSJ dynamics. After examining the viability of the metapopulations under current conditions, we explored the likely consequences of various management actions that might slow or reverse population declines.

Population Viability Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2024

The trailing edge is everywhere: tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal calibration of the end-cretaceous Chicxulub impact event

The end-Cretaceous Chicxulub impact triggered Earth’s last mass-extinction, extinguishing ~ 75% of species diversity and facilitating a global ecological shift to mammal-dominated biomes. Temporal details of the impact event on a fine scale (hour-to-day), important to understanding the early trajectory of mass-extinction, have largely eluded previous studies. This study employs histological and histo-isotopic analyses of fossil fish that were coeval with a unique impact-triggered mass-death assemblage from the Cretaceous-Paleogene (KPg) boundary in North Dakota (USA). Patterns of growth history, including periodicity of δ 18 O and δ 13 C and growth band morphology, plus corroborating data from fish ontogeny and seasonal insect behavior, reveal that the impact occurred during boreal Spring/Summer, shortly after the spawning season for fish and most continental taxa. The severity and taxonomic symmetry of response to global natural hazards are influenced by the season during which they occur, suggesting that post-impact perturbations could have exerted a selective force that was exacerbated by seasonal timing. Data from this study can also provide vital hindsight into patterns of extant biotic response to global-scale hazards that are relevant to both current and future biomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

Biological extinction in earth history

Virtually all plant and animal species that have ever lived on the earth are extinct. For this reason alone, extinction must play an important role in the evolution of life. The five largest mass extinctions of the past 600 million years are of greatest interest, but there is also a spectrum of smaller events, many of which indicate biological systems in profound stress. Extinction may be episodic at all scales, with relatively long periods of stability alternating with short-lived extinction events. Most extinction episodes are biologically selective, and further analysis of the victims and survivors offers the greatest chance of deducing the proximal causes of extinction. A drop in sea level and climatic change are most frequently invoked to explain mass extinctions, but new theories of collisions with extraterrestrial bodies are gaining favor. Extinction may be constructive in a Darwinian sense or it may only perturb the system by eliminating those organisms that happen to be susceptible to geologically rare stresses.

Raup, D. M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SAGE III/ISS v5.3 Level 2 Data Product Changes and Improvements

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) is an occultation instrument that acquires measurements of aerosols and gases within the Earth’s stratosphere and upper troposphere. SAGE III/ISS provides level 2 solar species products for aerosol extinction (9 channels), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), and water vapor (H2O). The level 2 products currently provide three O3 profiles based on differing retrievals. The first O3 profile is based on measurements at short wavelengths within the Hartley-Huggins band (MesO3), the second O3 profile is based on measurements made at visible wavelengths within the Chappius band (MLR O3), and the final profile is found using a more SAGE II like approach (AO3). The SAGE III/ISS also provides level 2 lunar species products for ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and nitrogen trioxide (NO3). Version 5.3 of the SAGE III/ISS retrieval algorithm introduces improvements that affect the level 2 data products. The largest change to the solar algorithm is the implementation of disturbance monitoring package (DMP) corrections to improve pointing accuracy. The DMP is comprised of a miniature inertial measurement unit that measures rotation in inertial space using ring laser gyroscopes oriented about three orthogonal axes which can be used to correct pointing errors caused by mechanical disturbances. A major change common to solar and lunar algorithms is meteorological input from the coarser 42 level Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) model data to the 72 level MERRA-2 model data. The final major change involves improving the automated quality assurance (QA) algorithm to recover events that were withheld from the public release because differences between the AO3 and MLR O3 for some events after the eruption of Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai. Other changes for v5.3 include minor bug fixes as well as restoration of some data quality flags that were removed in v5.21. This presentation presents the impacts of these changes as well as overall observations of interest from v5.3 level 2 data products.

Carter Hulsey↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SAGE III/ISS v5.3 Level 2 Data Product Changes and Improvements

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) is an occultation instrument that acquires measurements of aerosols and gases within the Earth’s stratosphere and upper troposphere. SAGE III/ISS provides level 2 solar species products for aerosol extinction (9 channels), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), and water vapor (H2O). The level 2 products currently provide three O3 profiles based on differing retrievals. The first O3 profile is based on measurements at short wavelengths within the Hartley-Huggins band (MesO3), the second O3 profile is based on measurements made at visible wavelengths within the Chappius band (MLR O3), and the final profile is found using a more SAGE II like approach (AO3). The SAGE III/ISS also provides level 2 lunar species products for ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and nitrogen trioxide (NO3). Version 5.3 of the SAGE III/ISS retrieval algorithm introduces improvements that affect the level 2 data products. The largest change to the solar algorithm is the implementation of disturbance monitoring package (DMP) corrections to improve pointing accuracy. The DMP is comprised of a miniature inertial measurement unit that measures rotation in inertial space using ring laser gyroscopes oriented about three orthogonal axes which can be used to correct pointing errors caused by mechanical disturbances. A major change common to solar and lunar algorithms is meteorological input from the coarser 42 level Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) model data to the 72 level MERRA-2 model data. The final major change involves improving the automated quality assurance (QA) algorithm to recover events that were withheld from the public release because differences between the AO3 and MLR O3 for some events after the eruption of Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai. Other changes for v5.3 include minor bug fixes as well as restoration of some data quality flags that were removed in v5.21. This presentation presents the impacts of these changes as well as overall observations of interest from v5.3 level 2 data products.

Carter Hulsey↗
NASA NTRS1988

Magnetic microspherules associated with the K/T and upper Eocene extinction events

Magnetic microspherules were identified in over 20 K/T boundary sites, and in numerous Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) cores from the Caribbean and Pacific, synchronous with the extinction of several radiolarian species near the end of the Eocene. The K/T magnetic spherules are of particular interest as carriers of Ir and other siderophiles generally found in abundance in K/T boundary clay. Furthermore the textures and unusual chemistry of their component magnetic phases indicate an origin at high temperature, possibly related to (an) unusual event(s) marking the end of the Cretaceous and Eocene periods. Their origin, along with the non-magnetic (sanidine) spheules, is generally ascribed directly to megaimpact events hypothesized to have periodically disrupted life on Earth. A survey of microspherical forms associated with known meteorite and impact derived materials reveals fundamental differences from the extinction related spherules. Low temperature magnetic experiments on the K/T and Upper Eocene spheroids indicate that, unlike tektites, extremely small superparamagnetic carriers are not present in abundance. The extensive subaerial exposure of Cretaceous combustible black shale during sea level regression in the latest Cretaceous represents a potential source for the magnetic spheroids found in certain K/T boundary clays. The recent discovery of high Ir abundances distributed above and below the K/T boundary within shallow water sediments in Israel, which also contain the most extensive known zones of combustion metamorphism, the so called Mottled Zone, adds a further dramatic footnote to the proposed association between the magnetic spheroids and combustion of organic shales. Interestingly, the Mottled Zone also contains the rare mineral magnesioferrite, which was identified both within the K/T magnetic spheroids and as discrete crystals in boundary clay from marine and continental sites.

Cisowski, Stanley M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Mass extinction: a commentary

Four neocatastrophist claims about mass extinction are currently being debated; they are that: 1, the late Cretaceous mass extinction was caused by large body impact; 2, as many as five other major extinctions were caused by impact; 3, the timing of extinction events since the Permian is uniformly periodic; and 4, the ages of impact craters on Earth are also periodic and in phase with the extinctions. Although strongly interconnected the four claims are independent in the sense that none depends on the others. Evidence for a link between impact and extinction is strong but still needs more confirmation through bed-by-bed and laboratory studies. An important area for future research is the question of whether extinction is a continuous process, with the rate increasing at times of mass extinctions, or whether it is episodic at all scales. If the latter is shown to be generally true, then species are at risk of extinction only rarely during their existence and catastrophism, in the sense of isolated events of extreme stress, is indicated. This is line of reasoning can only be considered an hypothesis for testing. In a larger context, paleontologists may benefit from a research strategy that looks to known Solar System and Galactic phenomena for predictions about environmental effects on earth. The recent success in the recognition of Milankovitch Cycles in the late Pleistocene record is an example of the potential of this research area.

Review, Tutorial↗
NASA NTRS2020

SAGE III ISS Contamination Monitoring Package: Observations in Orbit

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) telescope and instrument assembly employ the methods of solar occultation and lunar occultation to retrieve near-global vertical profiles of atmospheric ozone, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide, aerosol extinctions, and other gaseous species and atmospheric state parameters. The SAGE III grating spectrometer measures light within the spectral range of 280 nm to 1037 nm at approximately 1 nm resolution, but retrievals in the Ultraviolet (UV) are particularly sensitive to contamination of the optical train. Therefore, a contamination door that contains a quartz optical window can be closed over the telescope aperture during periods of enhanced external contaminant flux. This optically transparent window permits continued science event acquisition at an acceptably diminished signal-to-noise ratio, which is expected to decline with ongoing accretion of contaminant material. To date, this impact has been short term, and science quality through the window returns to baseline performance after a contamination source is removed and spontaneous desorption removes material from the low-affinity quartz surface. Two Contamination Monitoring Packages (CMPs) consisting of eight Thermoelectric Quartz Crystal Microbalances (TQCMs) from QCM Research provide characterization and redundant monitoring of contaminant deposition from the 2π steradian solid angle on the payload side of the Expedite the Processing of Experiments to the Space Station (ExPRESS) Payload Adapter. CMP data are closely examined by the SAGE III team to determine when the contamination door should remain closed during science events and in what direction the instrument assembly scan head should stow when not acquiring science measurements. Additionally, should the CMPs indicate an unacceptable accretion rate, the ight computer will close the contamination door as part of the automatic fault detection system. Along with spectrometer measurements of the quartz window's transmission, the payload CMPs enable auditing of the mission contamination budget. The process of Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) can be used to help identify chemical constituents accreted on the CMP sensors. To be presented here along with an explanation of the CMP systems are the first two and a half years of observations of the contaminant deposition environment around the payload in quiescence and during special events like docking vehicles.

Tyler T Dawson↗
NASA NTRS2019

TPSAS-NF1676L-32967-DND

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) was delivered to the International Space Station (ISS) on 23 February 2017. The SAGE III payload was robotically installed on Ex-PRESS Logistics Carrier-4 (ELC-4) on the S3 Truss and began acquiring science measurements on 17 March 2017. The SAGE III telescope and instrument assembly employs the methods of solar occultation and lunar occultation to retrieve near-global vertical profiles of atmospheric ozone, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide, multiwavelength aerosol extinctions, and other gaseous species and atmospheric state parameters. The activities on the ISS contribute to a dynamic operational environment. The attitude changes, EVAs, and the arrival and departure of vehicles require continual consideration when operating. After operating for two years, the SAGE III payload has planned over 20,000 occultation events and acquired approximately 17,000. A significant number of the missed events were because of visiting vehicles blocking the field of view. Using instrument data from these blocked events, the SAGE III team has mapped the structure of the ISS from the perspective of the instrument. Error Correction and Detection (EDAC) methods are necessary to preserve the functionality of the instrument software. On SAGE III the Hexapod Electrical Unit (HEU), which controls the orientation of the telescope, reports whenever an EDAC occurs. By analyzing the EDAC messages in the HEU telemetry, information concerning the orbital environment of the ISS can be obtained. To be presented is a summary of operational considerations when working on ISS along with how instrument data can be used to map the structural and electromagnetic environment of ISS.

Andrew J Peterson↗
NASA NTRS2020

SAGE III/ISS Contamination Monitoring Package: Observations in Orbit

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) telescope and instrument assembly employ the methods of solar occultation and lunar occultation to retrieve near-global vertical profiles of atmospheric ozone, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide, aerosol extinctions, and other gaseous species and atmospheric state parameters. The SAGE III grating spectrometer measures light within the spectral range of 280 nm to 1037 nm at approximately 1 nm resolution, but retrievals in the Ultraviolet (UV) are particularly sensitive to contamination of the optical train. Therefore, a contamination door that contains a quartz optical window can be closed over the telescope aperture during periods of enhanced external contaminant flux. This optically transparent window permits continued science event acquisition at an acceptably diminished signal-to-noise ratio, which is expected to decline with ongoing accretion of contaminant material. To date, this impact has been short term, and science quality through the window returns to baseline performance after a contamination source is removed and spontaneous desorption removes material from the low-affinity quartz surface. Two Contamination Monitoring Packages (CMPs) consisting of eight Thermoelectric Quartz Crystal Microbalances (TQCMs) from QCM Research provide characterization and redundant monitoring of contaminant deposition from the 2pi steradian solid angle on the payload side of the Expedite the Processing of Experiments to the Space Station (ExPRESS) Payload Adapter. CMP data are closely examined by the SAGE III team to determine when the contamination door should remain closed during science events and in what direction the instrument assembly scan head should stow when not acquiring science measurements. Additionally, should the CMPs indicate an unacceptable accretion rate, the flight computer will close the contamination door as part of the automatic fault detection system. Along with spectrometer measurements of the quartz window's transmission, the payload CMPs enable auditing of the mission contamination budget. The process of Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) can be used to help identify chemical constituents accreted on the CMP sensors. To be presented here along with an explanation of the CMP systems are the first two and a half years of observations of the contaminant deposition environment around the payload in quiescence and during special events like docking vehicles.

Tyler T Dawson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Challenges of Operations in a Dynamic Environment: A Three-Year Perspective of SAGE III

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment~III on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) was delivered to the International Space Station (ISS) on 23 February 2017. The SAGE III/ISS payload was robotically installed external to the ISS and began acquiring science measurements on 17 March 2017. The SAGE III/ISS instrument retrieves vertical profiles of atmospheric ozone, multi-wavelength aerosol extinctions, and other gaseous species. This paper will focus on the improvements made to the operations of the SAGE III/ISS payload. A key focus of the operations team following commissioning was to create robust tools that aide in the operations of the payload. A close collaboration with the SAGE III/ISS ground systems team allowed for the development of web-based tools to continuously monitor the health of the instrument. The mission operations team also worked with the SAGE III/ISS science team to gain a better sense of how the instrument works to maximize the quality and quantity of the science data collected. Another unique aspect of the SAGE III/ISS payload, that will be discussed, is the challenges of operating a hosted payload on the ISS; an active platform that has frequent attitude maneuvers, dockings, and EVA's. This active environment increases the need for the SAGE III/ISS operations team command the payload. Through coordination and teamwork, SAGE III/ISS mission has developed an operations team that has successfully managed the instrument around ISS activities and recovered from multiple instrument upsets. This has led the SAGE III/ISS payload to successfully surpass the acquisition metrics set forth prior to launch, allowing for the continued contribution to studying the atmospheric composition of the stratosphere and how it plays a role in earth’s climate.

SAGE III↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Operations Challenges in a Dynamic Environment: A Three-Year Perspective of SAGE III

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) was delivered to the International Space Station (ISS) on 23 February 2017. The SAGE III/ISS payload was robotically installed external to the ISS and began acquiring science measurements on 17 March 2017. The SAGE III/ISS instrument retrieves vertical profiles of atmospheric ozone, multi-wavelength aerosol extinctions, and other gaseous species. This paper will focus on the improvements made to the operations of the SAGE III/ISS payload. A key focus of the operations team following commissioning was to create robust tools that aid in the operations of the payload. A close collaboration with the SAGE III/ISS ground systems team allowed for the development of web-based tools to continuously monitor the health of the payload. The mission operations team also worked with the SAGE III/ISS science team to gain a better sense of how the instrument works to maximize the quality and quantity of the science data collected. Another unique aspect of the SAGE III/ISS payload, that will be discussed, is the challenges of operating a hosted payload on the ISS; an active platform that has frequent attitude maneuvers, dockings, and EVAs. This active environment increases the need for the SAGE III/ISS operations team command to the payload. Through coordination and teamwork, SAGE III/ISS mission has developed an operations team, tool, and procedures that have successfully managed the payload around ISS activities and recovered from multiple instrument upsets. This has led the SAGE III/ISS payload to successfully surpass the acquisition metrics set forth prior to launch, allowing for the continued contribution to studying the atmospheric composition of the stratosphere and how it plays a role in Earth’s climate.

SAGE III↗
NASA NTRS1981

The extinction toward the galactic center from observations of interstellar lines

H2CO absorption observations against Sgr A are used to select the molecular material lying in front of the galactic center, and an analysis similar to that of Blitz and Shu (1980) is carried out. The ratio of visual extinction to equivalent width of the 6 cm line of H2CO is found to be similar for several nearby interstellar clouds. By considering only the molecular components in front of the infrared cluster, the estimate for the extinction is decreased to 15-46 mag. These results are consistent with those from infrared observations toward the galactic center. Extinction estimates based on other interstellar species are also considered. Atomic gas is seen as contributing less than 10 mag of extinction.

Federman, S. R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of GEOS Aerosols Using CAMP2Ex Observations

Biomass burning aerosol impacts aspects of the atmosphere and Earth system through direct and semi-direct effects, as well as influencing air quality. Despite its importance, the representation of biomass burning aerosol is not always accurate in numerical weather prediction and climate models or reanalysis products. Using observations collected as part of the Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) in August through October of 2019, aerosol concentration and optical properties are evaluated within the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and its underlying aerosol module, GOCART. In the operational configuration, GEOS assimilates aerosol optical depth observations at 550 nm from AERONET and MODIS to constrain aerosol fields. Particularly for biomass burning aerosol, without the assimilation of aerosol optical depth, aerosol extinction is underestimated compared to observations collected in the Philippines region during the CAMP2Ex campaign. The assimilation process adds excessive amounts of carbon to account for the underestimated extinction, resulting in positive biases in the mass of black and organic carbon, especially within the boundary layer, relative to in situ observations from the Langley Aerosol Research Group Experiment. Counteracting this, GEOS is deficient in sulfate and nitrate aerosol just above the boundary layer. Aerosol extinction within GEOS is a function of the mass of different aerosol species, the ambient relative humidity, the assumed spectral optical properties, and particle size distribution per species. The relationship between dry and ambient extinction in GEOS reveals that hygroscopic growth is too high within the model for biomass burning aerosol. An additional concern lies in the assumed particle size distribution for GEOS, which has a single mode radius that is too small for organic carbon. Variability in the observed particle size distribution for biomass burning aerosol within a single flight also illuminates the fact that a single assumed particle size distribution is not sufficient and that for a proper representation, a more advanced aerosol module within GEOS may be necessary.

Allison Collow↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Impact Imperative: Laser Ablation for Deflecting Asteroids, Meteoroids, and Comets From Impacting the Earth

Impacting at hypervelocity, an asteroid struck the Earth approximately 65 million years ago in the Yucatan Peninsula area. This triggered the extinction of almost 70% of the species of life on Earth including the dinosaurs. Other impacts prior to this one have caused even greater extinctions. Preventing collisions with the Earth by hypervelocity asteroids, meteoroids, and comets is the most important immediate space challenge facing human civilization. This is the Impact Imperative. We now believe that while there are about 2000 earth orbit crossing rocks greater than 1 kilometer in diameter, there may be as many as 200,000 or more objects in the 100 m size range, Can anything be done about this fundamental existence question facing our civilization? The answer is a resounding yes! By using an intelligent combination of Earth and space based sensors coupled with an infra-structure of high-energy laser stations and other secondary mitigation options, we can deflect inbound asteroids, meteoroids, and comets and prevent them from striking the Earth.

Campbell, Jonathan W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Impact Imperative: A Space Infrastructure Enabling a Multi-Tiered Earth Defense

Impacting at hypervelocity, an asteroid struck the Earth approximately 65 million years ago in the Yucatan Peninsula a m . This triggered the extinction of almost 70% of the species of life on Earth including the dinosaurs. Other impacts prior to this one have caused even greater extinctions. Preventing collisions with the Earth by hypervelocity asteroids, meteoroids, and comets is the most important immediate space challenge facing human civilization. This is the Impact Imperative. We now believe that while there are about 2000 earth orbit crossing rocks greater than 1 kilometer in diameter, there may be as many as 200,000 or more objects in the 100 m size range. Can anything be done about this fundamental existence question facing our civilization? The answer is a resounding yes! By using an intelligent combination of Earth and space based sensors coupled with an infrastructure of high-energy laser stations and other secondary mitigation options, we can deflect inbound asteroids, meteoroids, and comets and prevent them &om striking the Earth. This can be accomplished by irradiating the surface of an inbound rock with sufficiently intense pulses so that ablation occurs. This ablation acts as a small rocket incrementally changing the shape of the rock's orbit around the Sun. One-kilometer size rocks can be moved sufficiently in about a month while smaller rocks may be moved in a shorter time span. We recommend that space objectives be immediately reprioritized to start us moving quickly towards an infrastructure that will support a multiple option defense capability. Planning and development for a lunar laser facility should be initiated immediately in parallel with other options. All mitigation options are greatly enhanced by robust early warning, detection, and tracking resources to find objects sufficiently prior to Earth orbit passage in time to allow significant intervention. Infrastructure options should include ground, LEO, GEO, Lunar, and libration point laser and sensor stations for providing early warning, tracking, and deflection. Other options should include space interceptors that will carry both laser and nuclear ablators for close range work. Response options must be developed to deal with the consequences of an impact should we move too slowly.

Campbell, Jonathan W.↗