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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The Synthesis of Manganese Hydroxide Nanowire Arrays for a High-Performance Zinc-Ion Battery

The morphology, microstructure as well as the orientation of cathodic materials are the key issues when preparing high-performance aqueous zinc-ion batteries (ZIBs). In this paper, binder-free electrode Mn(OH)2 nanowire arrays were facilely synthesized via electrodeposition. The nanowires were aligned vertically on a carbon cloth. The as-prepared Mn(OH)2 nanowire arrays were used as cathode to fabricate rechargeable ZIBs. The vertically aligned configuration is beneficial to electron transport and the free space between the nanowires can provide more ion-diffusion pathways. As a result, Mn(OH)2 nanowire arrays yield a high specific capacitance of 146.3 Ma h g−1 at a current density of 0.5 A g−1. They also demonstrates ultra-high diffusion coefficients of 4.5 × 10−8~1.0 × 10−9 cm2 s−1 during charging and 1.0 × 10−9~2.7 × 10−11 cm−2 s−1 during discharging processes, which are one or two orders of magnitude higher than what is reported in the studies. Furthermore, the rechargeable Zn//Mn(OH)2 battery presents a good capacity retention of 61.1% of the initial value after 400 cycles. This study opens a new avenue to boost the electrochemical kinetics for high-performance aqueous ZIBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental study of compaction localization in carbonate rock and constitutive modeling of mechanical anisotropy

Abstract Sedimentary rocks are inherently anisotropic and prone to strain localization. While the influence of rock anisotropy on the brittle/dilative regime has been studied extensively, its influence on the ductile/compactive regime is much less explored. This paper discusses the anisotropic behavior of a high‐porosity carbonate rock from central Europe (the Maastricht Tuffeau). A set of triaxial tests with concurrent x‐ray tomography has been performed at different confining pressures. The anisotropic characteristics of this rock have been investigated by testing samples cored at different inclinations of the bedding, thus revealing non‐negligible effects of the coring direction on yielding and compaction behavior. Specifically, samples cored perpendicular to bedding display higher strength and longer stages of post‐yielding deformation before manifesting re‐hardening. Despite such alterations of the inelastic response, Digital Image Correlation has revealed that the strain localization mode is independent of the coring direction, thus being primarily affected by the confinement level. To capture the observed interaction between material anisotropy and compaction behavior at the continuum‐scale, an elastoplastic constitutive law has been proposed. For this purpose, a set of tensorial bases has been introduced to replicate how the oriented rock fabric modulates the yielding and plastic flow characteristics of the material. The analyses show that the impact of the coring direction on yield function and plastic flow rule is fundamentally different, thus requiring the use of distinct projection strategies (a strategy here defined heterotopic mapping). The performance of the model, studied through parametric analyses and by calibrating the experimental results, illustrates the improved capability of the proposed constitutive approach when applied to strongly anisotropic porous rocks.

Shahin, Ghassan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance Improvements Through Advanced PV Backtracking on Uneven Terrain

The climatic sensitivity of new terrain-aware backtracking algorithms is evaluated across 800 locations in the continental USA on a representative synthetic rolling terrain. We find that a global optimization approach to backtracking results in climate-specific annual energy gains of 2.4%–3.2% relative to a traditional backtracking algorithm baseline. We identify a strong logarithmic correlation between local diffuse fraction and yield improvement, and highlight the effect of seasonal precipitation on performance gains. We also find that a backtracking approach, which approximates the terrain as constant, does not offer significant annual energy gains over the baseline on the synthetic terrain. Our findings suggest that specific yield from backtracking in the USA can be improved by as much as 88 kWh/kW by considering terrain when selecting a backtracking algorithm.

Backtracking↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrothermal Liquefaction of Structurally Diverse Lignins: Insights into Biocrude Yield, Fuel Properties, and Reaction Mechanisms

Lignin holds significant promise as a feedstock for biocrude production via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL). Although lignin HTL has been widely studied, the specific depolymerization pathways associated with distinct lignin structures remain largely unexplored. This study investigates the HTL of four structurally diverse lignins: alkaline (AL), dealkaline (DAL), organosolv (OL), and lignosulfonate (LS) across 270–310 °C to elucidate structure-specific mechanisms governing biocrude yield and composition. AL and OL achieved the highest yields (16.8 ± 0.3% and 16.8 ± 2.5%), with AL-derived biocrude showing the highest carbon content (70.2 ± 0.0%) and HHV (31.0 ± 0.2 MJ/kg). In contrast, DAL and LS produced lower yields and inferior fuel quality due to higher sulfur content and lower carbon enrichment. The structures of AL and DAL, containing fewer methoxy groups, produced guaiacol-rich biocrudes (46.6% and 69.5%). Methylation in AL formed alkyl guaiacols and veratroles, while DAL favored side-chain oxidation. OL retained complex structures, forming syringols and desaspidinol, which contributed to heavier biocrude compounds. Sulfonate groups in LS were stabilized mostly as sulfides, leading to elevated sulfur content. These findings provide mechanistic insight into how lignin structure governs HTL behavior, enabling targeted control of biocrude yield and quality for renewable fuel production.

biocrude↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-linear relationships between daily temperature extremes and US agricultural yields uncovered by global gridded meteorological datasets

Global agricultural commodity markets are highly integrated among major producers. Prices are driven by aggregate supply rather than what happens in individual countries in isolation. Furthermore, estimating the effects of weather-induced shocks on production, trade patterns and prices hence requires a globally representative weather data set. Recently, two data sets that provide daily or hourly records, GMFD and ERA5-Land, became available. Starting with the US, a data rich region, we formally test whether these global data sets are as good as more fine-scaled country-specific data in explaining yields and whether they estimate similar response functions. While GMFD and ERA5-Land have lower predictive skill for US corn and soybeans yields than the fine-scaled PRISM data, they still correctly uncover the underlying non-linear temperature relationship. All specifications using daily temperature extremes under any of the weather data sets outperform models that use a quadratic in average temperature. Correctly capturing the effect of daily extremes has a larger effect than the choice of weather data. In a second step, focusing on Sub Saharan Africa, a data sparse region, we confirm that GMFD and ERA5-Land have superior predictive power to CRU, a global weather data set previously employed for modeling climate effects in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cumulative short-lived photofission product yields for nuclear forensic application

Experiments have long been carried out with linear accelerator (linac) produced bremsstrahlung X-rays to study high-energy photon-induced fission, known as “photofission”. One benefit of photofission, when compared with neutron-induced fission, is the ability to investigate fundamental physics of fission at excitation energies lower than what is possible with neutrons [1]. Absorption of an incident neutron results in a compound nucleus with an excitation energy at least equal to the neutron binding energy; thus, the lowest energy region of the fission barrier cannot be studied. Fission product yield distributions are dependent on the incident particle energy and the target nucleus mass. They are generally represented by a double-humped curve, with low and high mass “peaks” and an intermediate mass “valley”. As incident particle energy increases, the excitation energy of the nucleus increases, thereby increasing the overall yield of isotopes in the valley with respect to the two maxima or peaks of the fission product curve [3]. Photofission is most probable for incident photons around 14 MeV due to the giant dipole resonance. Induced photofission around this energy results in a fission product yield distribution that resembles 14 MeV DT neutron fission more than thermal or fast (500 keV) neutron fission. In post-detonation nuclear forensics, the peak-to-valley ratio of the fission product yield curve could be used for characterizing device type by providing an indication of the neutron energy spectrum that had induced fission (e.g., 500 keV vs. 14 MeV). The goal of this work is to improve nuclear data for isotopes of interest in nuclear forensics and special nuclear material (SNM) detection, specifically the fission product yield data via photofission experiments for the isotopes of 238U and 232Th. Photofission has been proposed as a less costly and more flexible production method for the valley isotopes that are representative of DT neutron fission product yield distributions, which would benefit nuclear forensics exercises in testing for analysis techniques. Natural uranium and thorium targets were irradiated with bremsstrahlung photons (nominal endpoint energies of 8, 14, and 20 MeV), generated via impingement of high-energy electrons on a tungsten electron-to-photon radiator. Gamma-ray spectroscopy was used to observe and identify the decay of the resulting fission products. The photofission yields of 102 fission products were measured for the set of the 238U and 232Th targets at the three bremsstrahlung X-ray endpoint energies 8, 14, and 20 MeV. These fragments included masses ranging from A=84 to A=144, with half-lives as short as 1.07 seconds.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Image analysis reveals differences in tumor multinucleations in Black and White patients with human papillomavirus‐associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Background Understanding biological differences between different racial groups of human papillomavirus (HPV)‐associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients, who have differences in terms of incidence, survival, and tumor morphology, can facilitate accurate prognostic biomarkers, which can help develop personalized treatment strategies. Methods This study evaluated whether there were morphologic differences between HPV‐associated tumors from Black and White patients in terms of multinucleation index (MuNI), an image analysis‐derived metric that measures density of multinucleated tumor cells within epithelial regions on hematoxylin–eosin images and previously has been prognostic in HPV‐associated OPSCC patients. In this study, the authors specifically evaluated whether the same MuNI cutoff that was prognostic of overall survival (OS) and disease‐free survival in their previous study, T TR , is valid for Black and White patients, separately. We also evaluated population‐specific cutoffs, T B for Blacks and T W for Whites, for risk stratification. Results MuNI was statistically significantly different between Black (mean, 3.88e–4; median, 3.67e–04) and White patients (mean, 3.36e–04; median, 2.99e–04), with p = .0078. Using T TR , MuNI was prognostic of OS in the entire population with hazard ratio (HR) of 1.71 ( p = .002; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21–2.43) and in White patients with HR of 1.72 ( p = .005; 95% CI, 1.18–2.51). Population‐specific cutoff, T W , yielded improved HR of 1.77 ( p = .003; 95% CI, 1.21–2.58) for White patients, whereas T B did not improve risk‐stratification in Black patients with HR of 0.6 ( p = .3; HR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.2–1.80). Conclusions Histological difference between White and Black patient tumors in terms of multinucleated tumor cells suggests the need for considering population‐specific prognostic biomarkers for personalized risk stratification strategies for HPV‐associated OPSCC patients.

Koyuncu, Can F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Candidate Theranostics for 227 Th/ 89 Zr Paired Radioimmunotherapy of Lymphoma

227 Th is a promising radioisotope for targeted α-particle therapy. It produces 5 α-particles through its decay, with the clinically approved 223 Ra as its first daughter. There is an ample supply of 227 Th, allowing for clinical use; however, the chemical challenges of chelating this large tetravalent f-block cation are considerable. Using the CD20-targeting antibody ofatumumab, we evaluated chelation of 227 Th 4+ for α-particle–emitting and radiotheranostic applications. Methods: We compared 4 bifunctional chelators for thorium radiopharmaceutical preparation: S-2-(4-Isothiocyanatobenzyl)-1,4,7,10-tetraazacyclododecane tetraacetic acid (p-SCN-Bn-DOTA), 2-(4-isothicyanatobenzyl)-1,2,7,10,13-hexaazacyclooctadecane-1,4,7,10,13,16-hexaacetic acid (p-SCN-Bn-HEHA), p-isothiacyanatophenyl-1-hydroxy-2-oxopiperidine-desferrioxamine (DFOcyclo*-p-Phe-NCS), and macrocyclic 1,2-HOPO N-hydroxysuccinimide (L804-NHS). Immunoconstructs were evaluated for yield, purity, and stability in vitro and in vivo. Tumor targeting of the lead 227 Th-labeled compound in vivo was performed in CD20-expressing models and compared with a companion 89 Zr-labeled PET agent. Results: 227 Th-labeled ofatumumab-chelator constructs were synthesized to a radiochemical purity of more than 95%, excepting HEHA. 227 Th-HEHA-ofatumumab showed moderate in vitro stability. 227 Th-DFOcyclo*-ofatumumab presented excellent 227 Th labeling efficiency; however, high liver and spleen uptake was revealed in vivo, indicative of aggregation. 227 Th-DOTA-ofatumumab labeled poorly, yielding no more than 5%, with low specific activity (0.08 GBq/g) and modest long-term in vitro stability (<80%). 227 Th-L804-ofatumumab coordinated 227 Th rapidly and efficiently at high yields, purity, and specific activity (8 GBq/g) and demonstrated extended stability. In vivo tumor targeting confirmed the utility of this chelator, and the diagnostic analog, 89 Zr-L804-ofatumumab, showed organ distribution matching that of 227 Th to delineate SU-DHL-6 tumors. Conclusion: Commercially available and novel chelators for 227 Th showed a range of performances. The L804 chelator can be used with potent radiotheranostic capabilities for 89 Zr/ 227 Th quantitative imaging and α-particle therapy.

227Th↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep learning of electrochemical CO 2 conversion literature reveals research trends and directions

Large-scale and openly available material science databases are mainly composed of computer simulation results rather than experimental data. Some examples include the Materials Project, Open Quantum Materials Database, and Open Catalyst 2022. Unfortunately, building large-scale experimental databases remains challenging due to the difficulties in consolidating locally distributed datasets. In this work, focusing on the catalysis literature of CO 2 reduction reactions (CO 2 RRs), we present a machine learning (ML)-based protocol for selecting highly relevant papers and extracting important experimental data. First, we report a document embedding method (Doc2Vec) for collecting papers of greatest relevance to the specific target domain, which yielded 3154 CO 2 RR-related papers from six publishers. Next, we developed named entity recognition (NER) models to extract twelve entities related to material names (catalyst, electrolyte, etc.) and catalytic performance (Faradaic efficiency, current density, etc.). Further, among several tested models, the MatBERT-based approach achieved the highest accuracy, with an average F1-score of 90.4% and an F1-score of 95.2% in a boundary relaxation evaluation scheme. The accurate and accelerated NER-based data extraction from a large volume of catalysis literature enables temporal trend analyses of the CO 2 RR catalysts, products, and performances, revealing the potentially effective material space in CO 2 RRs. While this work demonstrates the effectiveness of our ML-based text mining methods for specifically CO 2 RR literature, the methods and approach are applicable to and may be used to accelerate the development of other catalytic chemical reactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Selective Valorization of CO 2 towards Valuable Hydrocarbons through Methanol-mediated Tandem Catalysis

The thermocatalytic conversion of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into valuable hydrocarbons presents a promising solution for mitigating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions while producing drop-in replacements for fossil-derived products. Among the two tandem mechanisms for the direct hydrogenation of CO 2 , the methanol synthesis coupled with the methanol to hydrocarbon (MTH) reaction offers an improvement over the reverse water-gas shift coupled with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis reaction (RWGS-FTS), as it is not limited by Anderson-Schulz-Flory distribution and yields higher selectivity towards specific products (e.g., olefins, aromatics, higher hydrocarbons). Herein, we focus on the recent progress achieved through this pathway and outline the existing knowledge gaps. We discuss the challenges involved in the process and highlight the key descriptors in the selection of catalyst components. Finally, we present several potential solutions to circumvent the current challenges, aiming to expedite the advancement of this route toward an efficient CO 2 hydrogenation process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Insights into the Structural Essence of Plasticity in High-Entropy Alloys

The heterogeneous mechanical response of a crystalline alloy with multiple principal elements was investigated using molecular dynamics simulations. The local configuration of the alloy in its quiescent state was characterized by the variables derived from the gyration tensor and the atomic electronegativity. A multivariate analysis identified the geometric and chemical factors that influenced the atomic packing variations. Further, upon straining, the non-affine displacement exhibited spatial heterogeneity. A statistical correlation was established between the local yield events and the specific features of the local configuration. Our findings, validated by the performance metrics analysis, provided a structural criterion for the instability mechanisms in high-entropy alloys (HEAs) and enhanced the understanding of their plasticity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the Effects of Ash Content on Various Pretreatment Technologies for the Bioconversion of Corn Stover

Here, the study aimed to examine the effects of adding biomass ash on the biochemical processes involved in fermentable sugar production. Corn stover was pretreated using several methods—hot water, dilute acid, alkaline, γ-valerolactone, and ionic liquid methods, each examined with ash loadings of 7.18% and 21.07%. The findings demonstrated that increased ash content adversely affected both pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis. Specifically, the total sugar yield was 3 to 16% lower at the higher ash content across all pretreatment methods, and up to 4.01% lower during enzymatic hydrolysis. For acidic pretreatment, the sugar yield decreased as ash content increased. In contrast, ash content had a lesser impact on alkaline pretreatment compared to acidic pretreatment. For example, using corn stover with an ash content as high as 22.65% resulted in only a 2.90% decrease in total sugar yield compared to corn stover without added ash. Further, the primary reasons for the reduced sugar yield in higher ash biomass during acidic pretreatments were likely the neutralizing effect of the ash and decreased acid access to the substrates. During enzymatic hydrolysis, ash reduced the sugar yield by limiting enzyme access to cellulose.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Selective One-Dimensional 13 C– 13 C Spin-Diffusion Solid-State Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Methods to Probe Spatial Arrangements in Biopolymers Including Plant Cell Walls, Peptides, and Spider Silk

Two-dimensional (2D) and 3D through-space 13 C– 13 C homonuclear spin-diffusion techniques are powerful solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) tools for extracting structural information from 13 C-enriched biomolecules, but necessarily long acquisition times restrict their applications. In this work, we explore the broad utility and underutilized power of a chemical shift-selective one-dimensional (1D) version of a 2D 13 C– 13 C spin-diffusion solid-state NMR technique. The method, which is called 1D dipolar-assisted rotational resonance (DARR) difference, is applied to a variety of biomaterials including lignocellulosic plant cell walls, microcrystalline peptide fMLF, and black widow dragline spider silk. 1D 13 C– 13 C spin-diffusion methods described here apply in select cases in which the 1D 13 C solid-state NMR spectrum displays chemical shift-resolved moieties. Furthermore, this is analogous to the selective 1D nuclear Overhauser effect spectroscopy (NOESY) experiment utilized in liquid-state NMR as a faster (1D instead of 2D) and often less ambiguous (direct sampling of the time domain data, coupled with increased signal averaging) alternative to 2D NOESY. Selective 1D 13 C– 13 C spin-diffusion methods are more time-efficient than their 2D counterparts such as proton-driven spin diffusion (PDSD) and dipolar-assisted rotational resonance. The additional time gained enables measurements of 13 C– 13 C spin-diffusion buildup curves and extraction of spin-diffusion time constants TSD, yielding detailed structural information. Specifically, selective 1D DARR difference buildup curves applied to 13 C-enriched hybrid poplar woody stems confirm strong spatial interaction between lignin and acetylated xylan polymers within poplar plant secondary cell walls, and an interpolymer distance of ~0.45–0.5 nm was estimated. Additionally, Tyr/Gly long-range correlations were observed on isotopically enriched black widow spider dragline silks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-Sensing Composites via an Embedded 3D-Printed PVDF-MoS 2 Nanosensor for Structural Health Monitoring

Carbon fiber (CF)-reinforced epoxy composites are widely used in vehicle applications, where early damage detection is crucial for reliability and safety. To address this need, we developed a self-sensing epoxy/CF composite by embedding a PVDF-MoS 2 nanosensor via an embedded 3D printing method. By harnessing the intrinsic curing kinetics of epoxy, we tailored its rheological properties to optimize the embedded printing process, enabling precise and reliable support for sensor filaments without compromising the composite’s structural and functional integrity. Through comprehensive rheological and kinetic analysis, we established a quantitative relationship among curing temperature, conversion rate, and resulting yield modulus─defining a narrow processing window essential for successful sensor integration. Specifically, we identified that an epoxy yield modulus range of 180–294 Pa and a conversion rate below 10% are critical to support the PVDF-MoS 2 filament architecture. Here, this embedded 3D printing method produces complex and multimaterial PVDF-MoS 2 sensors within an epoxy matrix with minimal deformation and reduced postprocessing, which is scalable and adaptable for industrial applications. Under cyclic loading, the embedded sensors exhibited stable signals under constant loads and increased voltage signals in response to crack formation (17–35% higher) and catastrophic failure (1 order of magnitude higher), effectively capturing structural changes in real time. This study demonstrates the potential of PVDF-MoS 2 nanocomposite sensor materials for real-time structural health monitoring in epoxy–CF composite systems, enabling early detection of defects and stress anomalies, significantly reducing the risk of unexpected failures, and enhancing structural reliability.

PVDF-MoS2 sensor↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Accuracy of Property Model Predictions for Cost Optimization of Desalination Technologies

Accurate modeling of seawater thermophysical and thermodynamic properties is critical for optimizing desalination processes. This study compares three seawater property models, a Reaktoro multicomponent model, the thermophysical seawater properties library from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and a simplified sodium chloride model, in the context of levelized cost of water (LCOW) minimization for reverse osmosis (RO) and mechanical vapor compression systems. Process simulations and cost optimizations reveal that although all three models yield comparable LCOW and specific energy consumption (SEC) estimates under baseline conditions, deviations among their predictions increase with salinity. Relative differences in LCOW and SEC reach up to 6% and 8%, respectively. RO results show greater variability due to differences in osmotic pressure predictions, which affect pressure constraints at high recoveries. Computational performance varies substantially; specifically, Reaktoro simulations are up to 28 times slower than empirical models due to their detailed equilibrium calculations. These results suggest that empirical models offer acceptable accuracy for routine desalination process design, while Reaktoro provides advantages in scenarios requiring detailed speciation, such as scaling or pH adjustment studies. These findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate property models based on the modeling objective of desalination applications and motivate future work integrating thermodynamic rigor with empirical efficiency.

Physical and chemical properties↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interactions Between the Amazonian Rainforest and Cumuli Clouds: A Large‐Eddy Simulation, High‐Resolution ECMWF, and Observational Intercomparison Study

Abstract The explicit coupling at meter and second scales of vegetation's responses to the atmospheric‐boundary layer dynamics drives a dynamic heterogeneity that influences canopy‐top fluxes and cloud formation. Focusing on a representative day during the Amazonian dry season, we investigate the diurnal cycle of energy, moisture and carbon dioxide at the canopy top, and the transition from clear to cloudy conditions. To this end, we compare results from a large‐eddy simulation technique, a high‐resolution global weather model, and a complete observational data set collected during the GoAmazon14/15 campaign. The overall model‐observation comparisons of radiation and canopy‐top fluxes, turbulence, and cloud dynamics are very satisfactory, with all the modeled variables lying within the standard deviation of the monthly aggregated observations. Our analysis indicates that the timing of the change in the daylight carbon exchange, from a sink to a source, remains uncertain and is probably related to the stomata closure caused by the increase in vapor pressure deficit during the afternoon. We demonstrate quantitatively that heat and moisture transport from the subcloud layer into the cloud layer are misrepresented by the global model, yielding low values of specific humidity and thermal instability above the cloud base. Finally, the numerical simulations and observational data are adequate settings for benchmarking more comprehensive studies of plant responses, microphysics, and radiation.

Vilà‐Guerau de Arellano, J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris‐Flow Inundation

Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗