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At least 73 records · Page 4

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

GMAO Sub/Seasonal prediction system (S2S) is being readied for a major upgrade to GEOS-S2S Version 3. An important factor in successful extended range forecast is the definition of an ensemble For initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. We plan to run a relatively large ensemble of 40 members for sub-seasonal forecast (up to 3 months), at which point we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of the extensive testing of various ways to generate the perturbations to the initial conditions and the validation of the stratified sampling strategy we chose.To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states separated by 1-10 days, randomly chosen from a corresponding season. We considered perturbing separately only the atmospheric fields or only the ocean or both of the forecast initial conditions. Considering varying separation times between the analysis states, we were able to produce perturbations sampling various modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread.Our ensemble size for sub-seasonal forecasts was determined as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes, NAO, PNA and AO. It is not feasible to run equally large ensemble for seasonal forecasts. Using a stratified sampling procedure we can identify the emerging directions of error growth. By comparing the stratified ensemble with randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we were able to show that the former better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble.

Borovikov, Anna

Spectroscopic analysis of transition state energy levels - Bending-rotational spectrum and lifetime analysis of H3 quasibound states

Converged quantum mechanical calculations of scattering matrices and transition probabilities are reported for the reaction of H with H2 with total angular momentum 0, 1, and 4 as functions of total energy in the range 0.85-1.15 eV on an accurate potential energy surface. The resonance structure is illustrated with Argand diagrams. State-to-state reactive collision delay times and lifetimes are presented. For J = 0, 1, and 4, the lowest-energy H3 resonance is at total energies of 0.983, 0.985, and 1.01 eV, respectively, with lifetimes of about 16-17 fs. For J = 1 and 4 there is a higher-energy resonance at 1.10-1.11 eV. For J = 1 the lifetime is about 4 fs and for J = 4 it is about 1 fs.

Zhao, Meishan

Analysis of state of vehicular scars on Arctic Tundra, Alaska

Identification on ERTS images of severe vehicular scars in the northern Alaska tundra suggests that, if such scars are of an intensity or have spread to a dimension such that they can be resolved by ERTS sensors (20 meters), they can be identified and their state monitored by the use of ERTS images. Field review of the state of vehicular scars in the Umiat area indicates that all are revegetating at varying rates and are approaching a stable state.

Lathram, E. H.

TAP 1: A Finite Element Program for Steady-State Thermal Analysis of Convectively Cooled Structures

The program has a finite element library of six elements: two conduction/convection elements to model heat transfer in a solid, two convection elements to model heat transfer in a fluid, and two integrated conduction/convection elements to represent combined heat transfer in tubular and plate/fin fluid passages. Nonlinear thermal analysis due to temperature dependent thermal parameters is performed using the Newton-Raphson iteration method. Program output includes nodal temperatures and element heat fluxes. Pressure drops in fluid passages may be computed as an option. A companion plotting program for displaying the finite element model and predicted temperature distributions is presented. User instructions and sample problems are presented in appendixes.

Thornton, E. A.

Remote sensing of sea state by analysis of backscattered microwave phase fluctuations

The relative phase of a normally incident microwave signal scattered off the sea surface is a random function of space and time. The statistics of these random phase fluctuations contain information about the wave-height statistics. This study demonstrates that the wave-height spectra can be deduced directly in terms of the spectra of the phase fluctuations without recourse to inversion techniques even when surface roughness exceeds many wavelengths of the incident signal. In the particular case of a nadir-directed satellite-mounted microwave source operating in the backscatter mode, the wave-height and phase spatial spectra are proportional with a constant proportionality of (2k0) squared, where k0 is the wavenumber of the scattered signal.

Clifford, S. F.

A rotational-state population analysis of the high-resolution IUE observation of CS emission in comet P/Halley

The high resolution spectrum of comet P/Halley has been measured in the region of the CS emission. CS in comet Halley is produced by photodissociation of CS2 and subsequently reexcited by broad band solar radiation. An inversion procedure is introduced to extract the rotational population distribution from the dispersed fluorescence spectrum. Intensity anomalies in the wavelength region corresponding to P and Q branch emission are considered.

Prisant, M. G.

Mission Data System Java Edition Version 7

The Mission Data System framework defines closed-loop control system abstractions from State Analysis including interfaces for state variables, goals, estimators, and controllers that can be adapted to implement a goal-oriented control system. The framework further provides an execution environment that includes a goal scheduler, execution engine, and fault monitor that support the expression of goal network activity plans. Using these frameworks, adapters can build a goal-oriented control system where activity coordination is verified before execution begins (plan time), and continually during execution. Plan failures including violations of safety constraints expressed in the plan can be handled through automatic re-planning. This version optimizes a number of key interfaces and features to minimize dependencies, performance overhead, and improve reliability. Fault diagnosis and real-time projection capabilities are incorporated. This version enhances earlier versions primarily through optimizations and quality improvements that raise the technology readiness level. Goals explicitly constrain system states over explicit time intervals to eliminate ambiguity about intent, as compared to command-oriented control that only implies persistent intent until another command is sent. A goal network scheduling and verification process ensures that all goals in the plan are achievable before starting execution. Goal failures at runtime can be detected (including predicted failures) and handled by adapted response logic. Responses can include plan repairs (try an alternate tactic to achieve the same goal), goal shedding, ignoring the fault, cancelling the plan, or safing the system.

Reinholtz, William K.

Digital Prototyping Methods to Enable Product Development Analysis Cycle Compression in Aerospace Systems

Historically, the product development life cycle (spanning from origination of a systems concept to initial delivery or fielding) for large-scale aerospace systems is 10-25 years. Examples of recent programs exhibiting this timeline are the Space Shuttle (13 years), , International Space Station (18 years), NASA Hubble telescope (16 years), USAF F-35 Strike Fighter (22 years), Missile Defense Agency THAAD (21 years), USAF V-22 Osprey (26 years), USAF B-2 Spirt (19 years), US Army RAH-66 Comanche (22 years, cancelled prior to fielding), James Webb Space Telescope (25 years), Space Launch System (10 years). This list illustrates the challenges of developing and fielding a modern integrated multi-disciplinary aerospace system. These development timelines are often preceded by significant research and development programs and followed by multiple increments, blocks, or spirals to reach planned operational capability. In the modern era of aerospace system acquisition, there is significant pressure to reduce system development timelines to meet system objectives and enable competitiveness in the current industry and landscape. Across the aerospace industry, a range of rapid acquisition and prototyping programs are seeking to achieve system development within timelines considerably less than 10 years. Notably, in September of 2019, NASA issued a solicitation for the development and demonstration of a Human Landing System (HLS) to deliver humans to the lunar surface by 2024 (5 years) and for the development and demonstration of a more sustainable HLS by 2026 (7 years). Lengthy product development cycle timelines are a product of multiple factors ranging from programmatic, sociological, technical, and systems engineering issues. New approaches in systems engineering provide new ways to enable these compressed development timelines. These approaches employ expanded application of advanced systems engineering methods and cross-cutting digital tools to accelerate system development, utilizing digital prototyping to connect maturing sub-system or component technologies into system or system-of-systems hardware prototypes. Approaches such as the use of system integrating physics relationships to reduce the number of design analysis cycle iterations and state analysis modeling to reduce necessary software testing (and improving coverage of system execution scenarios) represent steps forward in reducing the engineering time needed to field new systems. In addition to cost, schedule and performance benefits, expanded digital exploration and demonstration reduce risk in live system test and demonstration. This incremental demonstration approach, where digital prototyping and demonstration leads and informs full system test and demonstration, could be more important for space applications because of the increased difficulty of test and demonstration of space systems and architectures. The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at Marshall Space Flight Center merges traditional multi-disciplinary concept definition methods with modern, cross-cutting systems engineering concepts to enable iterative design and analysis of space architectures and systems through coordinated, strategic management of human capital, technical processes, and technology. This paper provides an overview of that approach, including recent examples and a strategic path forward to enabling continued reduction of aerospace system product development life cycles.

Michael D Watson

Space Shuttle Main Engine Implications for the Abort-to-Orbit Off-the-Pad Study

In 2001, the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) project office was contacted by the Space Shuttle Ascent Guidance, Navigation, and Control group to provide the engine perspective for an Abort-to-Orbit (ATO) study. The purpose of the AT0 Off-the-Pad study was to determine the feasibility of eliminating the Return to Launch Site and Transatlantic abort modes by using a five-segment solid rocket booster and throttling the remaining SSMEs to a higher power level. This would enable all abort modes to be Abort-to-Orbit. The SSME project office at Marshall Space Flight Center collaborated with MSFC's Space Transportation Directorate and Rocketdyne Propulsion and Power to provide the AT0 Off-the-Pad study with the analysis required. Power levels at 109%, 1 11% and 1 13% of rated power level were studied as well as mixture ratio decreases down to 5.85. SSME was to evaluate and define the technical and programmatic impacts to certify the SSME to these abort power levels. The SSME systems analysis group performed a steady state analysis using the SSME power balance model to determine if there were any technical issues associated with higher power level, low mixture ratio operation. Based on each power level/mixture ratio combination, an engine certification plan was created and a preliminary probabilistic risk assessment was performed. The results showed favorable results for higher power 1evel/lower mixture ratio SSME operation. In nearly all performance and redline parameters, the traded engine operation was encompassed by nominal engine performance of a prior engine configuration.

Schoffstoll, Dayna L.

The Influence of Observation Errors on Analysis Error and Forecast Skill Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework is used to explore the response of analysis error and forecast skill to observation quality. In an OSSE, synthetic observations may be created that have much smaller error than real observations, and precisely quantified error may be applied to these synthetic observations. Three experiments are performed in which synthetic observations with magnitudes of applied observation error that vary from zero to twice the estimated realistic error are ingested into the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation for a one-month period representing July. The analysis increment and observation innovation are strongly impacted by observation error, with much larger variances for increased observation error. The analysis quality is degraded by increased observation error, but the change in root-mean-square error of the analysis state is small relative to the total analysis error. Surprisingly, in the 120 hour forecast increased observation error only yields a slight decline in forecast skill in the extratropics, and no discernable degradation of forecast skill in the tropics.

Observation Error

Blade loss transient dynamics analysis, volume 1. Task 2: TETRA 2 theoretical development

The theoretical development of the forced steady state analysis of the structural dynamic response of a turbine engine having nonlinear connecting elements is discussed. Based on modal synthesis, and the principle of harmonic balance, the governing relations are the compatibility of displacements at the nonlinear connecting elements. There are four displacement compatibility equations at each nonlinear connection, which are solved by iteration for the principle harmonic of the excitation frequency. The resulting computer program, TETRA 2, combines the original TETRA transient analysis (with flexible bladed disk) with the steady state capability. A more versatile nonlinear rub or bearing element which contains a hardening (or softening) spring, with or without deadband, is also incorporated.

Gallardo, Vincente C.

A method for calculating transient thrust and flow-rate levels for Mariner type attitude control nitrogen gas jets

The purpose of this report is to define and program the transient pneumatic flow equations necessary to determine, for a given set of conditions (geometry, pressures, temperatures, valve on time, etc.), the total nitrogen impulse and mass flow per pulse for the single pulsing of a Mariner type reaction control assembly valve. The rates of opening and closing of the valves are modeled, and electrical pulse durations from 20 to 100 ms are investigated. In developing the transient flow analysis, maximum use was made of the steady-state analysis. The impulse results are also compared to an equivalent square-wave impulse for both the Mariner Mars 1971 (MM'71) and Mariner Mars 1964 (MM'64) systems. It is demonstrated that, whereas in the MM'64 system, the actual impulse was as much as 56 percent higher than an assumed impulse (which is the product of the steady-state thrust and value on time i.e., the square wave), in the MM'71 system, these two values were in error in the same direction by only approximately 4 percent because of the larger nozzle areas and shorter valve stroke used.

Ferrera, J. D.

Computational fluid dynamic modelling of cavitation

Models in sheet cavitation in cryogenic fluids are developed for use in Euler and Navier-Stokes codes. The models are based upon earlier potential-flow models but enable the cavity inception point, length, and shape to be determined as part of the computation. In the present paper, numerical solutions are compared with experimental measurements for both pressure distribution and cavity length. Comparisons between models are also presented. The CFD model provides a relatively simple modification to an existing code to enable cavitation performance predictions to be included. The analysis also has the added ability of incorporating thermodynamic effects of cryogenic fluids into the analysis. Extensions of the current two-dimensional steady state analysis to three-dimensions and/or time-dependent flows are, in principle, straightforward although geometrical issues become more complicated. Linearized models, however offer promise of providing effective cavitation modeling in three-dimensions. This analysis presents good potential for improved understanding of many phenomena associated with cavity flows.

Deshpande, Manish

Computer program for analysis of high speed, single row, angular contact, spherical roller bearing, SASHBEAN. Volume 1: User's guide

The computer program SASHBEAN (Sikorsky Aircraft Spherical Roller High Speed Bearing Analysis) analyzes and predicts the operating characteristics of a Single Row, Angular Contact, Spherical Roller Bearing (SRACSRB). The program runs on an IBM or IBM compatible personal computer, and for a given set of input data analyzes the bearing design for it's ring deflections (axial and radial), roller deflections, contact areas and stresses, induced axial thrust, rolling element and cage rotation speeds, lubrication parameters, fatigue lives, and amount of heat generated in the bearing. The dynamic loading of rollers due to centrifugal forces and gyroscopic moments, which becomes quite significant at high speeds, is fully considered in this analysis. For a known application and it's parameters, the program is also capable of performing steady-state and time-transient thermal analyses of the bearing system. The steady-state analysis capability allows the user to estimate the expected steady-state temperature map in and around the bearing under normal operating conditions. On the other hand, the transient analysis feature provides the user a means to simulate the 'lost lubricant' condition and predict a time-temperature history of various critical points in the system. The bearing's 'time-to-failure' estimate may also be made from this (transient) analysis by considering the bearing as failed when a certain temperature limit is reached in the bearing components. The program is fully interactive and allows the user to get started and access most of its features with a minimal of training. For the most part, the program is menu driven, and adequate help messages were provided to guide a new user through various menu options and data input screens. All input data, both for mechanical and thermal analyses, are read through graphical input screens, thereby eliminating any need of a separate text editor/word processor to edit/create data files. Provision is also available to select and view the contents of output files on the monitor screen if no paper printouts are required. A separate volume (Volume-2) of this documentation describes, in detail, the underlying mathematical formulations, assumptions, and solution algorithms of this program.

Aggarwal, Arun K.