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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

A Reliability Model for Ni-BaTiO3-Based (BME) Ceramic Capacitors

The evaluation of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) with base-metal electrodes (BMEs) for potential NASA space project applications requires an in-depth understanding of their reliability. The reliability of an MLCC is defined as the ability of the dielectric material to retain its insulating properties under stated environmental and operational conditions for a specified period of time t. In this presentation, a general mathematic expression of a reliability model for a BME MLCC is developed and discussed. The reliability model consists of three parts: (1) a statistical distribution that describes the individual variation of properties in a test group of samples (Weibull, log normal, normal, etc.), (2) an acceleration function that describes how a capacitors reliability responds to external stresses such as applied voltage and temperature (All units in the test group should follow the same acceleration function if they share the same failure mode, independent of individual units), and (3) the effect and contribution of the structural and constructional characteristics of a multilayer capacitor device, such as the number of dielectric layers N, dielectric thickness d, average grain size r, and capacitor chip size S. In general, a two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution model is used in the description of a BME capacitors reliability as a function of time. The acceleration function that relates a capacitors reliability to external stresses is dependent on the failure mode. Two failure modes have been identified in BME MLCCs: catastrophic and slow degradation. A catastrophic failure is characterized by a time-accelerating increase in leakage current that is mainly due to existing processing defects (voids, cracks, delamination, etc.), or the extrinsic defects. A slow degradation failure is characterized by a near-linear increase in leakage current against the stress time; this is caused by the electromigration of oxygen vacancies (intrinsic defects). The two identified failure modes follow different acceleration functions. Catastrophic failures follow the traditional power-law relationship to the applied voltage. Slow degradation failures fit well to an exponential law relationship to the applied electrical field. Finally, the impact of capacitor structure on the reliability of BME capacitors is discussed with respect to the number of dielectric layers in an MLCC unit, the number of BaTiO3 grains per dielectric layer, and the chip size of the capacitor device.

reliability↗
NASA NTRS1980

Backward deletion to minimize prediction errors in models from factorial experiments with zero to six center points

Population model coefficients were chosen to simulate a saturated 2 to the fourth power fixed effects experiment having an unfavorable distribution of relative values. Using random number studies, deletion strategies were compared that were based on the F distribution, on an order statistics distribution of Cochran's, and on a combination of the two. Results of the comparisons and a recommended strategy are given.

Holms, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Backward deletion to minimize prediction errors in models from factorial experiments with zero to six center points

Population model coefficients were chosen to simulate a saturated 2 to the 4th fixed-effects experiment having an unfavorable distribution of relative values. Using random number studies, deletion strategies were compared that were based on the F-distribution, on an order statistics distribution of Cochran's, and on a combination of the two. The strategies were compared under the criterion of minimizing the maximum prediction error, wherever it occurred, among the two-level factorial points. The strategies were evaluated for each of the conditions of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 center points. Three classes of strategies were identified as being appropriate, depending on the extent of the experimenter's prior knowledge. In almost every case the best strategy was found to be unique according to the number of center points. Among the three classes of strategies, a security regret class of strategy was demonstrated as being widely useful in that over a range of coefficients of variation from 4 to 65%, the maximum predictive error was never increased by more than 12% over what it would have been if the best strategy had been used for the particular coefficient of variation. The relative efficiency of the experiment, when using the security regret strategy, was examined as a function of the number of center points, and was found to be best when the design used one center point.

Holms, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Computer program to minimize prediction error in models from experiments with 16 hypercube points and 0 to 6 center points

A previous report described a backward deletion procedure of model selection that was optimized for minimum prediction error and which used a multiparameter combination of the F - distribution and an order statistics distribution of Cochran's. A computer program is described that applies the previously optimized procedure to real data. The use of the program is illustrated by examples.

Holms, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Asteroid rotation rates - Distributions and statistics

An analysis of asteroid rotation rates and light-curve amplitudes disclosed many significant correlations between these rotation parameters and asteroid diameter, with distinct changes occurring near 125 km, a diameter above which self-gravity may become important. It is suggested that this size range may represent a division between surviving primordial asteroids and collisional fragments. A comparison of rotational parameters between family and nonfamily asteroids showed that the Koronis and Eos families exhibit noticeable differences, considered to be due to different impact conditions and/or to a relatively younger age for the Koronis family.

Binzel, Richard P.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Use of simulated neural networks of aerial image classification

The utility of one layer neural network in aerial image classification is examined. The network was trained with the delta rule. This method was shown to be useful as a classifier in aerial images with good resolution. It is fast, it is easy to implement, because it is distribution-free, nothing about statistical distribution of the data is needed, and it is very efficient as a boundary detector.

Medina, Frances I.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Recent Development on O(+) - O Collision Frequency and Ionosphere-Thermosphere Coupling

The collision frequency between an oxygen atom and its singly charged ion controls the momentum transfer between the ionosphere and the thermosphere. There has been a long standing discrepancy, extending over a decade, between the theoretical and empirical determination of this frequency: the empirical value of this frequency exceeded the theoretical value by a factor of 1.7. Recent improvements in theory were obtained by using accurate oxygen ion-oxygen atom potential energy curves, and partial wave quantum mechanical calculations. We now have applied three independent statistical methods to the observational data, obtained at the MIT/Millstone Hill Observatory, consisting of two sets A and B. These methods give results consistent with each other, and together with the recent theoretical improvements, bring the ratio close to unity, as it should be. The three statistical methods lead to an average for the ratio of the empirical to the theoretical values equal to 0.98, with an uncertainty of +/-8%, resolving the old discrepancy between theory and observation. The Hines statistics, and the lognormal distribution statistics, both give lower and upper bounds for the Set A equal to 0.89 and 1.02, respectively. The related bounds for the Set B are 1.06 and 1.17. The average values of these bounds thus bracket the ideal value of the ratio which should be equal to unity. The main source of uncertainties are errors in the profile of the oxygen atom density, which is of the order of 11%. An alternative method to find the oxygen atom density is being suggested.

Omidvar, K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Selection Effects in Identifying Magnetic Clouds and the Importance of the Closest Approach Parameter

This study is motivated by the unusually low number of magnetic clouds (MCs) that are strictly identified within interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), as observed at 1 AU; this is usually estimated to be around 30% or lower. But a looser definition of MCs may significantly increase this percentage. Another motivation is the unexpected shape of the occurrence distribution of the observers' "closest approach distances" (measured from a MC's axis, and called CA) which drops off somewhat rapidly as |CA| (in % of MC radius) approaches 100%, based on earlier studies. We suggest, for various geometrical and physical reasons, that the |CA|-distribution should be somewhere between a uniform one and the one actually observed, and therefore the 30% estimate should be higher. So we ask, When there is a failure to identify a MC within an ICME, is it occasionally due to a large |CA| passage, making MC identification more difficult, i.e., is it due to an event selection effect? In attempting to answer this question we examine WIND data to obtain an accurate distribution of the number of MCs vs. |CA| distance, whether the event is ICME-related or not, where initially a large number of cases (N=98) are considered. This gives a frequence distribution that is far from uniform, confirming earlier studies. This along with the fact that there are many ICME identification-parameters that do not depend on |CA| suggest that, indeed an MC event selection effect may explain at least part of the low ratio of (No. MCs)/(No. ICMEs). We also show that there is an acceptable geometrical and physical consistency in the relationships for both average "normalized" magnetic field intensity change and field direction change vs. |CA| within a MC, suggesting that our estimates of |CA|, B(sub 0) (magnetic field intensity on the axis), and choice of a proper "cloud coordinate" system (all needed in the analysis) are acceptably accurate. Therefore the MC fitting model (Lepping et al., 1990) is adequate, on average, for our analysis. However, this selection effect is not likely to completely answer our original question, on the unexpected ratio of MCs to ICMEs, so we must look for other factors, such as peculiarities of CME birth conditions. As a by-product of this analysis, we determine that the first order structural effects within a MC due to its interaction with the solar wind, plus the MC's usual expansion at 1 AU (i.e., the non-force free components of the MC's field) are, on average, weakly dependent on radial distance from the MC's axis; that is, in the outer reaches of a typical MC the non-force free effects show up, but even there they are rather weak. Finally, we show that it is not likely that a MC's size distribution statistically controls the occurrence distribution of the estimated |CA|s.

Lepping, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS2006

NASA's Program to Monitor Orbital Debris in the GEO Belt and the General Problem of Measuring Near-Earth Object Orbits: Similarities and Differences

One of the goals for NASA s Orbital Debris Program Office has been to accurately characterize the population of debris in the geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) environment. Most objects larger than about 1 meter in size are regularly tracked and catalogued by the US Space Surveillance System in the GEO regime. The consequence has been that most large intact GEO objects are tracked, but the vast majority of GEO debris fragments are not. Only in recent years have observations been dedicated to characterize the GEO debris population. NASA s efforts have concentrated on using wide field-of-view telescopes to make complete surveys of the GEO regime to better our statistical understanding of the GEO debris population. These telescopes operate in a staring mode, and only make limited short-arc measurements of the orbits. This information, while limited, allows the possibility of debiasing the observations and constructing statistical distributions of orbits in inclination and ascending node. Recent work suggests that we may be able to use statistical methods to estimate better orbit parameters despite the limited data. Both of these types of studies estimating statistical orbit distributions, and estimating accurate orbits using limited short-arc data have direct analogues in ongoing studies of near-Earth objects (NEO) such as asteroids and comets. This talk will describe the GEO study methods in use and being developed at NASA, and will discuss how such methods may or may not be applicable for NEO studies as well.

Matney, Mark↗
NASA NTRS1988

Point mass deflectors in gravitational lenses

The observed properties of the six systems generally accepted as gravitational lenses are compared with the properties predicted for the images of point-mass and distributed mass deflectors. Taken as a statistical distribution, the characteristics of the six known systems strongly suggest the existence of a super-massive black hole as the effective deflecting mass in one or more of these systems. If the deflecting mass in a gravitational lens is a black hole, the distance to the deflecting mass can be determined directly from the difference in light travel time along the separate image paths. (No direct solution for the distance to the deflecting mass exists when the deflecting mass is a galaxy or a cluster of galaxies). Geometric parallaxes of objects at 1000 Mpc distance are of obvious importance in a wide variety of cosmological studies.

Dolan, Joseph F.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Wood Products Analysis

Structural Reliability Consultants' computer program creates graphic plots showing the statistical parameters of glue laminated timbers, or 'glulam.' The company president, Dr. Joseph Murphy, read in NASA Tech Briefs about work related to analysis of Space Shuttle surface tile strength performed for Johnson Space Center by Rockwell International Corporation. Analysis led to a theory of 'consistent tolerance bounds' for statistical distributions, applicable in industrial testing where statistical analysis can influence product development and use. Dr. Murphy then obtained the Tech Support Package that covers the subject in greater detail. The TSP became the basis for Dr. Murphy's computer program PC-DATA, which he is marketing commercially.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1972

Further developments in cloud statistics for computer simulations

This study is a part of NASA's continued program to provide global statistics of cloud parameters for computer simulation. The primary emphasis was on the development of the data bank of the global statistical distributions of cloud types and cloud layers and their applications in the simulation of the vertical distributions of in-cloud parameters such as liquid water content. These statistics were compiled from actual surface observations as recorded in Standard WBAN forms. Data for a total of 19 stations were obtained and reduced. These stations were selected to be representative of the 19 primary cloud climatological regions defined in previous studies of cloud statistics. Using the data compiled in this study, a limited study was conducted of the hemogeneity of cloud regions, the latitudinal dependence of cloud-type distributions, the dependence of these statistics on sample size, and other factors in the statistics which are of significance to the problem of simulation. The application of the statistics in cloud simulation was investigated. In particular, the inclusion of the new statistics in an expanded multi-step Monte Carlo simulation scheme is suggested and briefly outlined.

Chang, D. T.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning assisted bayesian inference of mix and hot-spot conditions in NIF implosions

Experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have provided clear evidence of ablator material mixing into the Hot-Spot, leading to degraded performance. However, inferring the amount of mix and Hot-Spot conditions from typical experimental observations (e.g. x-ray spectra and images) is highly challenging. Here, we have developed an analysis method that utilizes machine learning assisted Bayesian inference to find the probability distributions of the Hot-Spot and mix conditions. This approach uses a neural network, trained on an idealized 2-dimensional representation of the Hot-Spot and mix distribution, and Bayesian inference to find the statistical distributions of Hot-Spot conditions that provide a match with observations. We have tested this method with synthetic data from simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Statistical estimation of service cracks and maintenance cost for aircraft structures

A method is developed for the statistical estimation of the number of cracks to be repaired in service as well as the repair and the maintenance costs. The present approach accounts for the statistical distribution of the initial crack size, the statistical nature of the NDI technique used for detecting the crack, and the renewal process for the crack propagation of repaired cracks. The mean and the standard deviation of the cumulative number of cracks to be repaired are computed as a function of service time. The statistics of the costs of repair and maintenance, expressed in terms of the percentage of the cost of replacement, are estimated as a function of service time. The results of the present study provide relevant information for the decision of fleet management, the estimation of life cycle cost, and procurement specifications. The present study is essential to the design and cost optimization of aircraft structures.

Yang, J.-N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Lunar Meteorites: What They Tell us About the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Mare Basalts

Here we analyze the chronology and statistical distribution of lunar meteorites with emphasis on the spatial and temporal distribution of lunar mare basalts. The data are mostly from the Lunar Meteorite Compendium (http://www-curator.jsc.nasa.gov/ antmet/ lmc/contents.cfm cited hereafter as Compendium) compiled by Kevin Righter, NASA Johnson Space Center, and from the associated literature. The Compendium was last modified on May 12, 2008.

Basilevsky, A. T.↗
NASA NTRS2010

On Acoustic Source Specification for Rotor-Stator Interaction Noise Prediction

This paper describes the use of measured source data to assess the effects of acoustic source specification on rotor-stator interaction noise predictions. Specifically, the acoustic propagation and radiation portions of a recently developed coupled computational approach are used to predict tonal rotor-stator interaction noise from a benchmark configuration. In addition to the use of full measured data, randomization of source mode relative phases is also considered for specification of the acoustic source within the computational approach. Comparisons with sideline noise measurements are performed to investigate the effects of various source descriptions on both inlet and exhaust predictions. The inclusion of additional modal source content is shown to have a much greater influence on the inlet results. Reasonable agreement between predicted and measured levels is achieved for the inlet, as well as the exhaust when shear layer effects are taken into account. For the number of trials considered, phase randomized predictions follow statistical distributions similar to those found in previous statistical source investigations. The shape of the predicted directivity pattern relative to measurements also improved with phase randomization, having predicted levels generally within one standard deviation of the measured levels.

Nark, Douglas M.↗