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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Buried Object Brightness and Visibility for Ground Penetrating Radar

Comparing the observed brightness of various buried objects is a straightforward way to characterize the performance of a ground penetrating radar (GPR) system. However, a limitation arises. A simple comparison of buried object brightness values does not disentangle the effects of the GPR system itself from the system's operating environment and the objects being observed. Therefore, with brightness values exhibiting an unknown synthesis of systemic, environmental, and object factors, GPR system analysis becomes a convoluted affair. In this work, we use an experimentally collected dataset of over 25,000 object observations from five different multistatic radar arrays to develop models of buried object brightness and control for these various effects. Additionally, our modeling efforts provide a means for quantifying the relative brightness of GPR systems, the objects they detect, and the physical properties of those objects that influence observed brightness. To evaluate the models' performance on new object observations, we repeatedly simulate fitting them to half the dataset and predicting the observed brightness values of the unseen half. In addition, we introduce a method for estimating the probability that individual observations constitute a visible object, which aids in failure analysis, performance characterization, and dataset cleaning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical and experimental characterization of twin transmission across grain boundaries along the forward and lateral directions

Pervasive deformation twinning and transmission events across grain boundaries (GBs) affect the strength and failure of hexagonal close-packed (HCP) magnesium. A three-dimensional twin can transmit along the twinning shear direction, (forward), and along the direction perpendicular to both the twinning plane normal and the shear direction, (lateral). For the first time, phase-field calculations and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD)-based statistical analysis are combined to investigate the effect of the twinned grain boundary characteristics on twin transmission (TT) along the forward and lateral directions. This combined analysis reveals that TT propensity decreases with increasing misorientation angle across the GB for both forward and lateral directions. Also, the TT is more favorable along the lateral than along the forward direction. Twin transmission seems harder across GBs with a misorientation axis closer to the twin -direction than the other directions ( and ). Further, the PF calculations reveal that, at the onset of a transmission process, the crystallography tends to be preserved in the case of lateral transmission, whereas, in the forward transmission case, the transmitted twin punches straight through the GBs and its morphology prevails. Additionally, the EBSD analysis finds that pure forward and lateral transmissions do not occur often, yet reveals a preference for lateral propagation consistent with PF simulations. Further, the local twin transmission configurations observed in the actual material do not correspond to pure tilt or twist GBs, which are most commonly considered as model cases.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding GPU Memory Corruption at Extreme Scale: The Summit Case Study

GPU memory corruption and in particular double-bit errors (DBEs) remain one of the least understood aspects of HPC system reliability. Albeit rare, their occurrences always lead to job termination and can potentially cost thousands of node-hours, either from wasted computations or as the overhead from regular checkpointing needed to minimize the losses. As supercomputers and their components simultaneously grow in scale, density, failure rates, and environmental footprint, the efficiency of HPC operations becomes both an imperative and a challenge. We examine DBEs using system telemetry data and logs collected from the Summit supercomputer, equipped with 27,648 Tesla V100 GPUs with 2nd-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM2). Using exploratory data analysis and statistical learning, we extract several insights about memory reliability in such GPUs. We find that GPUs with prior DBE occurrences are prone to experience them again due to otherwise harmless factors, correlate this phenomenon with GPU placement, and suggest manufacturing variability as a factor. On the general population of GPUs, we link DBEs to short- and long-term high power consumption modes while finding no significant correlation with higher temperatures. We also show that the workload type can be a factor in memory’s propensity to corruption.

Oles, Vlad↗
DOE OSTI2026

HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) Statistical Uncertainty Analysis

HSSHTC, the safety basis steady state TH code for HFIR, uses a highly conservative approach in which all input and calculation uncertainties are resolved simultaneously at their most limiting setting. This results in excessive conservatism which does not account for the high unlikelihood of such simultaneous worst-case conditions. The present study explores an alternative approach, BEPU, in which reasonable working assumptions for the probability distribution of each input uncertainty are used to determine a relationship between burnout power margin and core fuel failure probability. This was performed under a philosophy of perturbing uncertainty parameters already defined within the HSSHTC methodology while preserving the HSSHTC calculation approach and solution methodology itself. Based on the assumptions employed in this study, the BEPU approach resulted in a 0.29 increase in burnout power ratio (25 MW increase in burnout power) compared to the latest HSSHTC calculations of C-HFIR-2026-004. The study can be refined in the future by employing fuel fabrication data to provide more realistic input distributions. Future changes to the HSSHTC methodology would potentially allow a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties which may further increase the burnout power ratio.

Wysocki, Aaron [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000222043779)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic nonlinear analysis of unidirectional fiber composites using image-based microstructural uncertainty quantification

Here, we present a data-driven nonlinear uncertainty quantification and propagation framework to study the microstructure-induced stochastic performance of unidirectional (UD) carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites. The proposed approach integrates (1) microscopic image characterization, (2) stochastic microstructure reconstruction, and (3) efficient multiscale finite element simulations enabled by self-consistent clustering (SCA) analysis. To model the complex microstructural variability, the proposed UQ methods take the non-Gaussian uncertainty sources into account through a distribution-free sampling approach leveraging nonparametric and asymptotic statistical tools. A hierarchical conditional sampling strategy enables the simultaneous sampling of multiple sources of uncertainties. Our approach provides insights into the impact of microstructural variabilities, which are shown to have an increasing impact on the nonlinear responses of UD CFRP parts under progressive compression loading and ultimately on the failure rate over time. We discover that before CFRP parts start to fail, a characteristic time period emerges with distinctive uncertainty distributions specific to the microstructure variability and the probability of failure. Identifying the failure time period is crucial to the reliability prediction, which is an essential component of CFRP design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reliability Improvement and Effective Switching Layer Model of Thin-Film MoS 2 Memristors

2D memristors have demonstrated attractive resistive switching characteristics recently but also suffer from the reliability issue, which limits practical applications. Previous efforts on 2D memristors have primarily focused on exploring new material systems, while damage from the metallization step remains a practical concern for the reliability of 2D memristors. Here, the impact of metallization conditions and the thickness of MoS 2 films on the reliability and other device metrics of MoS 2 -based memristors is carefully studied. The statistical electrical measurements show that the reliability can be improved to 92% for yield and improved by ≈16× for average DC cycling endurance in the devices by reducing the top electrode (TE) deposition rate and increasing the thickness of MoS 2 films. Intriguing convergence of switching voltages and resistance ratio is revealed by the statistical analysis of experimental switching cycles. An “effective switching layer” model compatible with both monolayer and few-layer MoS 2 , is proposed to understand the reliability improvement related to the optimization of fabrication configuration and the convergence of switching metrics. In conclusion, the Monte Carlo simulations help illustrate the underlying physics of endurance failure associated with cluster formation and provide additional insight into endurance improvement with device fabrication optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupled loads analysis of a novel shared-mooring floating wind farm

Shared mooring lines are a method to reduce the stationkeeping cost of floating offshore wind farms; however, their impacts on floating array dynamics are not yet well understood. Here this article presents advancements to floating wind farm simulation capabilities that allow the dynamic modeling of shared-mooring floating wind arrays - specifically, platform coupling through shared lines and proper phasing of wave loads across the array. These capabilities are demonstrated on a 10-turbine shared-mooring array featuring two staggered rows of wind turbines. A baseline array design with individually moored turbines is used as a basis for comparison. Coupled analysis using FAST.Farm shows that the shared-mooring design has smaller fluctuations in surge when compared to the baseline design. The mean and maximum platform offsets are highest in normal operating conditions, but the maximum mooring line tensions are highest in 50-year storm conditions. Power spectral density analysis of platform surge and sway motions shows that the shared mooring configuration does not introduce any significant inter-platform resonances. The tower-base bending moment statistics and the line tension damage equivalent loads indicate no consequential differences in turbine loading or mooring fatigue life. Anchor load analysis shows that the total required anchor capacity for the shared-mooring array is decreased by approximately 25% when shared anchors are used. Dynamic simulations of the shared mooring system under line failures show that remaining line tensions stay within bounds and that offsets are significantly smaller when compared to the baseline design. Overall, the results show that shared moorings do not introduce any dynamic response concerns in this floating wind array design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Weather and Climate Extremes Impact on Power System Outage

This paper provides statistical analysis of the characteristics of power system outages to gain a better understanding of the impacts of the increasing severe weather conditions on the outages. 10-year historical power system outage data from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) were gathered together with co-located weather attributes and recorded extreme weather events in the service area, which are paired in comparable spatial and temporal scales, with a focus on each outage transmission line. Statistical frequency analysis and cross-tabular evaluation are performed to investigate the occurring frequency and duration of outages associated with extreme weather in this area of study. The study reveals that the weather-related outages can be mainly attributed to hail and thunderstorm events which correspond to up to 60% out of all failures in several transmission line types.

Ren, Huiying↗
DOE OSTI2022

A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison between PARFUME and Bison Using the AGR-2 Irradiation Experiment

This report documents comparisons between Fuel Model (PARFUME) model predictions versus Bison for selected compacts from the second irradiation test of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program that occurred from June 2010 to October 2013 in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). PARFUME is a fuel performance analysis and modeling code, used for evaluating gas-reactor tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particle fuel for prismatic, pebble bed, plate, and cylindrical type fuel geometries. PARFUME is an integrated mechanistic computer code that evaluates the thermal, mechanical, and physico-chemical behavior of TRISO coated-fuel particles and the probability for fuel failure given the particle-to-particle statistical variations in physical dimensions and material properties that arise during the fuel fabrication process. Bison is a nuclear fuel performance application built using the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element library (Permann 2020). Bison is capable of modeling multiple fuel forms in a wide variety of dimensions and geometries. It solves coupled nonlinear partial differential equations, including heat conduction, mechanics, fission product species transport etc., in a fully implicit manner. Comparisons between PARFUME and Bison were performed using four compacts from the AGR-2 experiment. Selected outputs were chosen based on their impact on the probability of the SiC layer failing. In general there was good agreement between PARFUME and Bison with the exception of predicting the gap formed between the buffer and IPyC. Further comparisons between PARFUME and Bison are planned to further develop Bison’s capabilities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)

Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus is an important component within Earth system models (ESMs) that project future climate. Many ESMs are adopting methods to resolve plant size and ecosystem disturbance history, using vegetation demographic models. These models make it feasible to conduct more realistic simulation of processes that control vegetation dynamics. Meanwhile, increasing understanding of the processes governing plant water use, and ecosystem responses to drought in particular, has led to the adoption of dynamic plant water transport (i.e., hydrodynamic) schemes within ESMs. However, the extent to which variations in plant hydraulic traits affect both plant water stress and the risk of mortality in trait-diverse tropical forests is understudied. In this study, we report on a sensitivity analysis of an existing hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) model that is updated and incorporated into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (FATES–HYDRO V1.0). The size- and canopy-structured representation within FATES is able to simulate how plant size and hydraulic traits affect vegetation dynamics and carbon–water fluxes. To better understand this new model system, and its functionality in tropical forest systems in particular, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We assembled 942 observations of plant hydraulic traits on 306 tropical plant species for stomata, leaves, stems, and roots and determined the best-fit statistical distribution for each trait, which was used in model parameter sampling to assess the parametric sensitivity. We showed that, for simulated leaf water potential and loss of hydraulic conductivity across different plant organs, the four most important traits were associated with xylem conduit taper (buffers increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height), stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, and the partitioning of total hydraulic resistance above vs. belowground. Our analysis of individual ensemble members revealed that trees at a high risk of hydraulic failure and potential tree mortality generally have a lower conduit taper, lower maximum xylem conductivity, lower stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, and lower resistance to xylem embolism for stem and transporting roots. We expect that our results will provide guidance on future modeling studies using plant hydrodynamic models to predict the forest responses to droughts and future field campaigns that aim to better parameterize plant hydrodynamic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Loss-of-Offsite-Power Events: 2021 Update

Loss-of-offsite power (LOOP) can have a negative impact on a nuclear power plant’s ability to achieve and maintain safe shutdown conditions. LOOP event frequencies and times required for subsequent restoration of offsite power are important inputs to plant probabilistic risk assessments. This report presents a statistical and engineering analysis of LOOP frequencies and durations at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study were based on the operating experience during calendar years 1987–2021, while the most recent 15-year data (i.e., from 2007–2021) were used for most analyses in this report. LOOP events during critical operation that did not result in a reactor trip are not included. Frequencies and durations were determined for four LOOP event categories: plant-centered, switchyard-centered, grid-related, and weather-related. These categories (and the All-LOOPs group which contains all LOOPs without regarding of the four categories) could be further grouped by whether a LOOP event occurred during critical operation, during shutdown operation, or during all operations. The following decreasing trends in the LOOP occurrence rates were identified for the most recent 10-year period (2012–2021): All-LOOPs during critical operation, switchyard-centered LOOPs during critical operation, and grid-related LOOPs during critical operation. Adverse trends in LOOP durations continue for switchyard-centered LOOPs during all operations, All-LOOPs during all operations, and All-LOOPs during shutdown operation for the 1997–2021 period. Statistical tests show the LOOP counts for the period of 2007–2021 are not uniformly distributed across the 12 months, and variation among the months exists for grid-related LOOPs during all operations, All-LOOPs during all operations, and All-LOOPs during critical operation. The engineering analysis of LOOP data showed for the period of 2007–2021, the equipment failure events were dominated by failures of relay and other; human errors have been less frequent and occurred primarily in maintenance and switching; and weather were dominated by tornadoes then by lightning and hurricane. Weather was the cause for 45% of LOOPs for the last fifteen years (2007– 2021) but only for 20% of LOOPs for the previous 20 years (1987–2006) .

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large-Scale Inference of Multivariate Regression for Heavy-Tailed and Asymmetric Data

Large-scale multivariate regression is a fundamental statistical tool with a wide range of applications. Here, this study considers the problem of simultaneously testing a large number of general linear hypotheses, encompassing covariate-effect analysis, analysis of variance, and model comparisons. The challenge that accompanies a large number of tests is the ubiquitous presence of heavy-tailed and/or highly skewed measurement noise, which is the main reason for the failure of conventional least squares-based methods. For large-scale multivariate regression, we develop a set of robust inference methods to explore data features such as heavy tailedness and skewness, which are not visible to least squares methods. The new testing procedure is based on the data-adaptive Huber regression and a new covariance estimator of regression estimates. Under mild conditions, we show that our methods produce consistent estimates of the false discovery proportion. Extensive numerical experiments and an empirical study on quantitative linguistics demonstrate the advantage of the proposed method over many state-of-the-art methods when the data are generated from heavy-tailed and/or skewed distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

System Study: High-Pressure Core Spray 1998-2022

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the high-pressure core spray (HPCS) at eight U.S. commercial operating boiling water reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from 1998–2022 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. Statistically significant increasing trends were identified in both the HPCS system start-only unreliability and 8-hour mission unreliability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

System Study: High-Pressure Coolant Injection 1998-2022

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the high-pressure coolant injection (HPCI) system at 22 U.S. commercial operating boiling water reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from 1998–2022 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the HPCI results.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

System Study: Emergency Power System 1998-2022

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the emergency power system (EPS) at 93 U.S. commercial operating nuclear reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from 1998–2022 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the industry-wide estimates of EPS system start-only unreliability, but a highly statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the industry-wide estimates of EPS system 8-hour mission unreliability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗