Monte Carlo Bayesian inference on a statistical model of sub‐gridcolumn moisture variability using high‐resolution cloud observations. Part 1: Method
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Peter M. Norris↗
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Dependence of Ru2O3 Activity on Composition of Silicate Melts: Using Statistical Correlations to Infer Thermodynamic Behavior in the Melt
Understanding variations in activity with composition is an essential step in improving prediction of partition coefficients during magma evolution. Variations in activity with composition are complex and do not generally exhibit ideal behavior relative to a traditional melt-component set. Although deviations from component ideality can be modeled numerically by simply fitting to compositional variables (such as in a regular or subregular solution model), such models have not been particularly successful for describing variations in trace component activities. A better approach might be to try to identify components that do a better job of describing the behavior of the species in the melt. Electrochemical Measurement of Ru2O3 activities: Electrodes were inserted into silicate melt beads of various compositions (Table 1) suspended on Ptwire loops in a 1-atm gas mixing furnace. An electrical potential was imposed between the electrodes, the imposed potential increasing along a step ramp with a pulse imposed on each step (Fig. 1). Current flows between electrodes when electroactive species in the melt are oxidized or reduced at the electrodes. The resulting current was measured at the top and bottom of the voltage pulse, and the difference (the differential current) was plotted against potential. The peak of the resulting curve is related to the activity coefficient for the particular electroactive species (Ru2O3) in the melt [1, 2, 3]. A significant part of the nonideal contribution to activity is due not to intrinsic properties of the component in the melt, but to our ignorance about the state and mixing properties of the component in the melt.
Colson, R. O.↗
A statistical method for inferring the initial mass function of young clusters I: procedure
This paper presents a new method for inferring the Initial Mass Function of young clusters based on intrinsic K-band Luminosity functions (LFs).
clusters↗
Chromospheric Evaporation and Decimetric Radio Emission in Solar Flares
We have discovered decimetric signatures of the chromospheric evaporation process. Evidence for the radio detection of chromospheric evaporation is based on the radio-inferred values of (1) the electron density, (2) the propagation speed, and (3) the timing, which are found to be in good agreement with statistical values inferred from the blueshifted Ca xix soft X-ray line. The physical basis of our model is that free-free absorption of plasma emission is strongly modified by the steep density gradient and the large temperature increase in the upflowing flare plasma. The steplike density increase at the chromospheric evaporation front causes a local discontinuity in the plasma frequency, manifested as almost infinite drift rate in decimetric type III bursts. The large temperature increase of the upflowing plasma considerably reduces the local free-free opacity (due to the T-(exp -3/2) dependence) and thus enhances the brightness of radio bursts emitted at the local plasma frequency near the chromospheric evaporation front, while a high-frequency cutoff is expected in the high-density regions behind the front, which can be used to infer the velocity of the upflowing plasma. From model calculations we find strong evidence that decimetric bursts with a slowly drifting high-frequency cutoff are produced by fundamental plasma emission, contrary to the widespread belief that decimetric bursts are preferentially emitted at the harmonic plasma level. We analyzed 21 flare episodes from 1991-1993 for which broadband (100-3000 MHz) radio dynamic spectra from Phoenix, hard X-ray data from BATSE/CGRO, and soft X-ray data from GOES were available. We detected slowly drifting high-frequency cutoffs between 1.1 and 3.0 GHz, with drift rates of -41 +/- 32 MHz/s, extending over time intervals of 24 +/- 23 s. Developing a density model for type III-emitting flare loops based on the statistically observed drift rate of type III bursts by Alvarez & Haddock, we infer velocities of up to 360 km/s for the upflowing plasma, with an average of v(sub CE) = 236 +/- 130 km /s for episodes with 5-15 s duration. The mean electron density of the upflowing plasma is n(sub e) = 5.2(+/-3.1) x 10(exp 10) /cu cm when it is first detected in radio, at coronal altitudes of h(sub 0) = 9.2 +/- 2.3 Mm.
Aschwanden, Markus J.↗
Chromospheric evaporation and decimetric radio emission in solar flares
We have discovered decimetric signatures of the chromospheric evaporation process. Evidence for the radio detection of chromospheric evaporation is based on the radio-inferred values of (1) the electron density, (2) the propagation speed, and (3) the timing, which are found to be in good agreement with statistical values inferred from the blueshifted Ca XIX soft X-ray line. The physical basis of our model is that free-free absorption of plasma emission is strongly modified by the steep density gradient and the large temperature increase in the upflowing flare plasma. The steplike density increase at the chromospheric evaporation front causes a local discontinuity in the plasma frequency, manifested as almost infinite drift rate in decimetric type III bursts. The large temperature increase of the upflowing plasma considerably reduces the local free-free opacity (due to the T(exp -3/2) dependence) and thus enhances the brightness of radio bursts emitted at the local plasma frequency near the chromospheric evaporation front, while a high-frequency cutoff is expected in the high-density regions behind the front, which can be used to infer the velocity of the upflowing plasma. From model calculations we find strong evidence that decimetric bursts with a slowly drifting high-frequency cutoff are produced by fundamental plasma emission, contrary to the widespread belief that decimetric bursts are preferentially emitted at the harmonic plasma level. We analyze 21 flare episodes from 1991-1993 for which broadband (100-3000 MHz) radio dynamic spectra from Pheonix, hard X-ray data from (BATSE/CGRO) and soft X-ray data from Burst and Transient Source Experiment/Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (GOES) were available.
Aschwanden, Markus J.↗
A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data
Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.
NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
Stoichiometric disturbances in compound semiconductors due to ion implantation
A method is developed to calculate the depth distribution of the local stoichiometric disturbance (SD) resulting from ion implantation in binary-compound substrates. The calculation includes first-order recoils considering projected range straggle of projectiles and recoils and lateral straggle of recoils. The method uses tabulated final-range statistics to infer the projectile range distributions at intermediate energies. This approach greatly simplifies the calculation with little compromise on accuracy as compared to existing procedures. As an illustration, the SD profile is calculated for implantation of boron, silicon, and aluminum in silicon carbide. The results for the latter case suggest that the SD may be responsible for otherwise unexplained distortions in the annealed aluminum profile. A comparison with calculations by other investigators using the Boltzmann transport equation shows good agreement.
Avila, R. E.↗
A simple statistical model for geomagnetic reversals
The diversity of paleomagnetic records of geomagnetic reversals now available indicate that the field configuration during transitions cannot be adequately described by simple zonal or standing field models. A new model described here is based on statistical properties inferred from the present field and is capable of simulating field transitions like those observed. Some insight is obtained into what one can hope to learn from paleomagnetic records. In particular, it is crucial that the effects of smoothing in the remanence acquisition process be separated from true geomagnetic field behavior. This might enable us to determine the time constants associated with the dominant field configuration during a reversal.
Constable, Catherine↗
Investigation of the Transport of Solar Ions Through the Earth's Magnetosphere
The objective of this study has been to infer, by statistical means, the most probable mode of entry of solar wind plasma into Earth's magnetotail, using a particular set of archived data from the Lockheed Plasma Composition Experiment on the International Sun-Earth Explorer One (ISEE-1) satellite, jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency (ESA) in the 1970's and 80's. Despite their considerable age, the Lockheed ISEE-1 data are still, at the time of this report, the only substantial ion composition data in the sub-keV to keV energy range available from the magnetotail beyond 9 R(sub E), because of various technical problems with ion mass spectrometers on later missions, and are therefore a unique source of information about the mixing of solar and terrestrial origin plasmas in the tail, within the ISEE-1 apogee of almost 23 R(sub E). The entire set of archived data used in this study, covering the 4.5 years of operation of the instrument and comprising not only tail measurements but also data from the inner magnetosphere as well as data from outside the magnetopause, is now available to the public via the WorldWideWeb at the address: http://cis.spasci.com/ISEE_ions The fundamental assumption of this and other studies of magnetosphere ion composition is that He++ and O+ ions are virtually certain "tags" of solar and terrestrial origins, respectively. This is an assumption with strong theoretical basis and it is corroborated by observational evidence, including the often substantial differences between the velocity distribution functions of those two species. The H+ ions can have a dual origin, in principle, but the close resemblance in the ISEE-1 data between the dynamics of H+ and He++ ions indicates a predominantly solar origin of the H+ ions in the tail, at least. By the same token, the usually minor He+ ions are probably almost entirely of terrestrial origin, because of their similarity to the O+ ions.
Lennartsson, O. W.↗
Near Earth Asteroid Characterization for Threat Assessment
Physical characteristics of NEAs are an essential input to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry and to assess the risk of impact but determining these properties requires a non-trivial investment of time and resources. The characteristics relevant to these models include size, density, strength and ablation coefficient. Some of these characteristics cannot be directly measured, but rather must be inferred from related measurements of asteroids and/or meteorites. Furthermore, for the majority of NEAs, only the basic measurements exist so often properties must be inferred from statistics of the population of more completely characterized objects. The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project at NASA Ames Research Center has developed a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) model in order to assess the risk of asteroid impact. Our PAIR model and its use to develop probability distributions of impact risk are discussed in other contributions to PDC 2017 (e.g., Mathias et al.). Here we utilize PAIR to investigate which NEA characteristics are important for assessing the impact threat by investigating how changes in these characteristics alter the damage predicted by PAIR. We will also provide an assessment of the current state of knowledge of the NEA characteristics of importance for asteroid threat assessment. The relative importance of different properties as identified using PAIR will be combined with our assessment of the current state of knowledge to identify potential high impact investigations. In addition, we will discuss an ongoing effort to collate the existing measurements of NEA properties of interest to the planetary defense community into a readily accessible database.
Asteroid characterization↗
Near Earth Asteroid Characteristics for Asteroid Threat Assessment
Information about the physical characteristics of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) is needed to model behavior during atmospheric entry, to assess the risk of an impact, and to model possible mitigation techniques. The intrinsic properties of interest to entry and mitigation modelers, however, rarely are directly measureable. Instead we measure other properties and infer the intrinsic physical properties, so determining the complete set of characteristics of interest is far from straightforward. In addition, for the majority of NEAs, only the basic measurements exist so often properties must be inferred from statistics of the population of more completely characterized objects. We will provide an assessment of the current state of knowledge about the physical characteristics of importance to asteroid threat assessment. In addition, an ongoing effort to collate NEA characteristics into a readily accessible database for use by the planetary defense community will be discussed.
Atmospheric↗
Forecasting flare times from inferred magnetic fields
Solar flare forecasting based on statistical correlation to magnetic fields inferred from H alpha filtergrams
Lemmon, J. J.↗
Studies of the Ability to Hold the Eye in Eccentric Gaze: Measurements in Normal Subjects with the Head Erect
We studied the ability to hold the eyes in eccentric horizontal or vertical gaze angles in 68 normal humans, age range 19-56. Subjects attempted to sustain visual fixation of a briefly flashed target located 30 in the horizontal plane and 15 in the vertical plane in a dark environment. Conventionally, the ability to hold eccentric gaze is estimated by fitting centripetal eye drifts by exponential curves and calculating the time constant (t(sub c)) of these slow phases of gazeevoked nystagmus. Although the distribution of time-constant measurements (t(sub c)) in our normal subjects was extremely skewed due to occasional test runs that exhibited near-perfect stability (large t(sub c) values), we found that log10(tc) was approximately normally distributed within classes of target direction. Therefore, statistical estimation and inference on the effect of target direction was performed on values of z identical with log10t(sub c). Subjects showed considerable variation in their eyedrift performance over repeated trials; nonetheless, statistically significant differences emerged: values of tc were significantly higher for gaze elicited to targets in the horizontal plane than for the vertical plane (P less than 10(exp -5), suggesting eccentric gazeholding is more stable in the horizontal than in the vertical plane. Furthermore, centrifugal eye drifts were observed in 13.3, 16.0 and 55.6% of cases for horizontal, upgaze and downgaze tests, respectively. Fifth percentile values of the time constant were estimated to be 10.2 sec, 3.3 sec and 3.8 sec for horizontal, upward and downward gaze, respectively. The difference between horizontal and vertical gazeholding may be ascribed to separate components of the velocity position neural integrator for eye movements, and to differences in orbital mechanics. Our statistical method for representing the range of normal eccentric gaze stability can be readily applied in a clinical setting to patients who were exposed to environments that may have modified their central integrators and thus require monitoring. Patients with gaze-evoked nystagmus can be flagged by comparing to the above established normative criteria.
Reschke, Millard F.↗
On the Annual Frequency of Intense Hurricanes in Relation to the Extremes of ENSO and the Interludes Between Them
On the basis of Trenberth's quantitative definition for marking the occurrence of an El Nino, one can precisely identify some 15 El Nino and 10 La Nina events during the interval of 1950-1997. The statistical aspects of these identified extremes and the intervening periods between them (interludes) are determined. Also, a comparison of the appearances of these extremes and interludes with yearly hurricane seasons shows that of the last 48 hurricane seasons, 20 (42%) are El Nino-related (i.e., an El Nino was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season - June-November), 13 (27%) are La Nina-related, and 15 (31%) are interlude - related. Combining the two subgroups of La Nino- and interlude - related seasons into a single grouping called non-El Nino-related seasons, one finds that the non-El Nino-related seasons have a mean annual frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 2.8, while the El Nino-related seasons have a mean annual frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 1.3, and the observed difference in the means is inferred to be statistically important at the 99.8% level of confidence. Therefore, during El Nino-related seasons, fewer intense hurricanes (typically, less than or equal to 2) should be expected, while durin(y non-El Nino-related seasons, more (typically, greater than or equal to 2) should be expected. Implications for the upcoming 1998 and future hurricane seasons are discussed.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
Statistical Aspects of ENSO Events (1950-1997) and the El Nino-Atlantic Intense Hurricane Activity Relationship
On the basis of Trenberth's quantitative definition for marking the occurrence of an El Nino (or La Nina), one can precisely identify by month and year the starts and ends of some 15 El Nino and 10 La Nina events during the interval of 1950-1997, an interval corresponding to the most reliable for cataloging intense hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin (i.e., those of category 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale). The main purpose of this investigation is primarily two-fold: First, the statistical aspects of these identified extremes and the intervening periods between them (called "interludes") are examined and, second, the statistics of the seasonal frequency of intense hurricanes in comparison to the extremes and interludes are determined. This study clearly demonstrates that of the last 48 hurricane seasons, 20 (42 percent) can be described as being "El Nino-related" (i.e., an El Nino was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season--June-November), 13 (27 percent) as "La Nina-related" (i.e., a La Nina was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season), and 15 (31 percent) as "interlude-related" (i.e., neither an El Nino nor a La Nina was in progress during any portion of the yearly hurricane season). Combining the latter two subgroups into a single grouping called "non-El Nino-related" seasons, one finds that they have had a mean frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 2.8 events per season, while the El Nino-related seasons have had a mean frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 1.3 events per season, where the observed difference in the means is inferred to be statistically important at the 99.8-percent level of confidence. Therefore, as previously shown more than a decade ago using a different data set, there undeniably exists an El Nino-Atlantic hurricane activity relationship, one which also extends to the class of intense hurricanes. During the interval of 1950-1997, fewer intense hurricanes occurred during El Nino-related seasons (always less than or equal to 3 and usually less than or equal to 2, this latter value having been true for 18 of the 20 El Nino-related seasons), while more usually occurred during non-El Nino-related seasons (typically greater than or equal to 2, having been true for 22 of the 28 non-El Nino-related seasons). Implications for the 1998 and 1999 hurricane seasons are discussed.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
Modification of Eccentric Gaze-Holding
Clear vision and accurate localization of objects in the environment are prerequisites for reliable performance of motor tasks. Space flight confronts the crewmember with a stimulus rearrangement that requires adaptation to function effectively with the new requirements of altered spatial orientation and motor coordination. Adaptation and motor learning driven by the effects of cerebellar disorders may share some of the same demands that face our astronauts. One measure of spatial localization shared by the astronauts and those suffering from cerebellar disorders that is easily quantified, and for which a neurobiological substrate has been identified, is the control of the angle of gaze (the "line of sight"). The disturbances of gaze control that have been documented to occur in astronauts and cosmonauts, both in-flight and postflight, can be directly related to changes in the extrinsic gravitational environment and intrinsic proprioceptive mechanisms thus, lending themselves to description by simple non-linear statistical models. Because of the necessity of developing robust normal response populations and normative populations against which abnormal responses can be evaluated, the basic models can be formulated using normal, non-astronaut test subjects and subsequently extended using centrifugation techniques to alter the gravitational and proprioceptive environment of these subjects. Further tests and extensions of the models can be made by studying abnormalities of gaze control in patients with cerebellar disease. A series of investigations were conducted in which a total of 62 subjects were tested to: (1) Define eccentric gaze-holding parameters in a normative population, and (2) explore the effects of linear acceleration on gaze-holding parameters. For these studies gaze-holding was evaluated with the subjects seated upright (the normative values), rolled 45 degrees to both the left and right, or pitched back 30 and 90 degrees. In a separate study the further effects of acceleration on gaze stability was examined during centrifugation (+2 G (sub x) and +2 G (sub z) using a total of 23 subjects. In all of our investigations eccentric gaze-holding was established by having the subjects acquire an eccentric target (+/-30 degrees horizontal, +/- 15 degrees vertical) that was flashed for 750 msec in an otherwise dark room. Subjects were instructed to hold gaze on the remembered position of the flashed target for 20 sec. Immediately following the 20 sec period, subjects were cued to return to the remembered center position and to hold gaze there for an additional 20 sec. Following this 20 sec period the center target was briefly flashed and the subject made any corrective eye movement back to the true center position. Conventionally, the ability to hold eccentric gaze is estimated by fitting the natural log of centripetal eye drifts by linear regression and calculating the time constant (G) of these slow phases of "gaze-evoked nystagmus". However, because our normative subjects sometimes showed essentially no drift (tau (sub c) = m), statistical estimation and inference on the effect of target direction was performed on values of the decay constant theta = 1/(tau (sub c)) which we found was well modeled by a gamma distribution. Subjects showed substantial variance of their eye drifts, which were centrifugal in approximately 20 % of cases, and > 40% for down gaze. Using the ensuing estimated gamma distributions, we were able to conclude that rightward and leftward gaze holding were not significantly different, but that upward gaze holding was significantly worse than downward (p<0.05). We also concluded that vertical gaze holding was significantly worse than horizontal (p<0.05). In the case of left and right roll, we found that both had a similar improvement to horizontal gaze holding (p<0.05), but didn't have a significant effect on vertical gaze holding. For pitch tilts, both tilt angles significantly decreased gaze-holding ility in all directions (p<0.05). Finally, we found that hyper-g centrifugation significantly decreased gaze holding ability in the vertical plane. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) vertical gaze-holding is less stable than horizontal, (2) gaze-holding to upward targets is less stable than to downward targets, (3) tilt affects gaze holding, and (4) hyper-g affects gaze holding. This difference between horizontal and vertical gaze-holding may be ascribed to separate components of the velocity-to-position neural integrator for eye movements, and to differences in orbital mechanics. The differences between upward and downward gaze-holding may be ascribed to an inherent vertical imbalance in the vestibular system. Because whole body tilt and hyper-g affects gaze-holding, it is implied that the otolith organs have direct connections to the neural integrator and further studies of astronaut gaze-holding are warranted. Our statistical method for representing the range of normal eccentric gaze stability can be readily applied to normals who maybe exposed to environments which may modify the central integrator and require monitoring, and to evaluate patients with gaze-evoked nystagmus by comparing to the above established normative criteria.
Reschke, M. F.↗
Martian cratering revisited - Implications for early geologic evolution
Consideration is given to the geological history of Mars as inferred from cratering statistics. The geomorphology of the cratered terrain in Terra Tyrrhena is described in detail, and crater counts made from Viking images of cratered terrain as well as pure cratered areas from the Southern Hemisphere, craters superposing both the intercrater plains and dissected terrain, and plains units in the Northern Hemisphere are presented. Comparison of the Martian crater counts with those obtained for the lunar highlands reveals the distribution functions to be quite similar for crater diameters greater than 8 km, indicating their derivation from the same population of bodies, with an integrated Mars/moon crater flux ratio of at least 0.75. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that if this ratio was due to resurfacing processes, then the Martian population is probably a remnant of obliteration by both inter- and intra-crater plains acting in concert. Results also suggest that most of the endogenetic activity in the cratered terrain occured before the end of heavy bombardment and that two stages of geologic activity were present.
Gurnis, M.↗
A heat-pipe mechanism for volcanism and tectonics on Venus
A heat-pipe mechanism is proposed for the transport of heat through the lithosphere of Venus. This mechanism allows the crust and lithosphere on Venus to be greater than 150 km. thick. A thick basaltic crust on Venus is expected to transform eclogite at a depth of 60 to 80 km; the dense eclogite would contribute to lithospheric delamination that returns the crust to the interior of the planet completing the heat-pipe cycle. Topography and the associated gravity anomalies can be explained by Airy compensation of the thick crust. The principal observation that is contrary to this hypothesis is the mean age of the surface that is inferred from crater statistics; the minimum mean age is about 130 Myr and this implies an upper limit of 2 cubic kilometers per year for the surface volcanic flux. If the heat-pipe mechanism was applicable on the Earth in the Archean it would provide the thick lithosphere implied by isotopic data from diamonds.
Turcotte, D. L.↗