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At least 73 records · Page 4

Efficacy of Compression Garments to Simulate Fluid Shifts during Lunar Bedrest

The effectiveness of JOBST(Registered TradeMark) compression stockings for fluid redistribution was examined in the lunar bed rest analog based on Digital Astronaut computer model predictions. NASA's future goals include missions to the moon which will require extended exposure to the lunar gravity environment. To prepare for these missions, physiological adaptations in various systems must be resolved. A bed rest at a 10 degree head-up tilt was used to simulate lunar gravity. Plasma volume (PV) loss may cause some of the cardiovascular adaptations which occur during space flight so PV is measured in the bed rest analog to evaluate fluid loss. PV varies from individual to individual so PV index (PVI) is used to determine the magnitude and time course of fluid shift and cardiovascular adaptation to 1/6 g. The Digital Astronaut, a computer simulation tool, predicts a 6% PV loss during an extended simulated lunar mission for a male with a body surface area of 1.95 m(exp 2). Simple geometry calculations suggest that 10 degree head-up tilt is most useful for simulated measurement of deconditioning in bone and muscle, however, 2 degree head-up tilt may best imitate cardiovascular fluid shifts. In order to reconcile these different models, compression stocking must be used in the 10 degree paradigm to better approximate expected cardiovascular changes.

Brinley, Alaina↗

Modeling microbial carbon fluxes and stocks in global soils from 1901 to 2016

Abstract. Soil microbes play a crucial role in the carbon (C) cycle; however, they have been overlooked in predicting the terrestrial C cycle. We applied a microbial-explicit Earth system model – the Community Land Model-Microbe (CLM-Microbe) – to investigate the dynamics of soil microbes during 1901 to 2016. The CLM-Microbe model was able to reproduce the variations of gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary productivity, heterotrophic (HR) and soil (SR) respiration, microbial (MBC) biomass C in fungi (FBC) and bacteria (BBC) in the top 30 cm and 1 m, and dissolved (DOC) and soil organic C (SOC) in the top 30 cm and 1 m during 1901–2016. During the study period, simulated C variables increased by approximately 12 PgC yr−1 for HR, 25 PgC yr−1 for SR, 1.0 PgC for FBC and 0.4 PgC for BBC in 0–30 cm, and 1.2 PgC for FBC and 0.7 PgC for BBC in 0–1 m. Increases in microbial C fluxes and pools were widely found, particularly at high latitudes and in equatorial regions, but we also observed their decreases in some grids. Overall, the area-weighted averages of HR, SR, FBC, and BBC in the top 1 m were significantly correlated with those of soil moisture and soil temperature in the top 1 m. These results suggested that microbial C fluxes and pools were jointly governed by vegetation C input and soil temperature and moisture. Our simulations revealed the spatial and temporal patterns of microbial C fluxes and pools in response to environmental change, laying the foundation for an improved understanding of soil microbial roles in the global terrestrial C cycle.

He, Liyuan↗

Impacts of Disturbance History on Forest Carbon Stocks and Fluxes: Merging Satellite Disturbance Mapping with Forest Inventory Data in a Carbon Cycle Model Framework

Forest carbon stocks and fluxes are highly dynamic following stand-clearing disturbances from severe fire and harvest and this presents a significant challenge for continental carbon budget assessments. In this work we use forest inventory data to parameterize a carbon cycle model to represent post-disturbance carbon trajectories of carbon pools and fluxes for specific forest types growing in high and low site productivity class settings. We then apply these trajectories to landscapes and regions based on forest age distributions derived from either the FIA data or from Landsat time series stacks (1985-2006) for 54 representative scenes throughout most of the conterminous United States. We estimate the net carbon uptake in forests caused by post-disturbance growth and decomposition ("regrowth sink") for forested regions across the country. At the landscape scale, the prevailing condition of positive net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is in stark contrast to local patches with large sources, particularly in the west where fires and clear cuts create contiguous disturbed patches. At the continental scale, regional differences in disturbance rates reflect management patterns of high disturbance rates in the Southeastern and South Central states, and lower disturbance rates in the Northeast and Northern Lakes States. Despite low contemporary disturbance rates in the Northeast and Northern Lakes States (0.61 and 0.74% y(exp −1)), the regrowth sink there remains of moderate to large strength (88 and 57 g C m(exp −2) y(exp −1)) owing to the continued legacy from historical clearing. Large regrowth sinks are also found in the Southeast, South Central, and Pacific Southwest regions (85, 86, and 95 g C m(exp −2) y(exp −1)) where disturbance rates also tend to be higher (1.59, 1.38, and 0.93% y(exp −1)). Overall, the Landsat-derived disturbance rates are elevated relative to FIA-derived rates (1.19 versus 0.93% y(exp −1)) particularly for western regions. The differences only modestly adjust regional- and continental-scale carbon budgets, reducing NEP from forest regrowth by about 8%.

carbon↗

Widespread Global Peatland Establishment and Persistence over the Last 130,000 Y

Glacial−interglacial variations in CO2 (exp) and methane in polar ice cores have been attributed, in part, to changes in global wetland extent, but the wetland distribution before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka to 18 ka) remains virtually unknown. We present a study of global peatland extent and carbon (C) stocks through the last glacial cycle (130 ka to present) using a newly compiled database of 1,063 detailed stratigraphic records of peat deposits buried by mineral sediments, as well as a global peatland model. Quantitative agreement between modeling and observations shows extensive peat accumulation before the LGM in northern latitudes (>40°N), particularly during warmer periods including the last interglacial (130 ka to 116 ka, MIS 5e) and the interstadial (57 ka to 29 ka, MIS 3). During cooling periods of glacial advance and permafrost formation, the burial of northern peatlands by glaciers and mineral sediments decreased active peatland extent, thickness, and modeled C stocks by 70 to 90% from warmer times. Tropical peatland extent and C stocks show little temporal variation throughout the study period. While the increased burial of northern peats was correlated with cooling periods, the burial of tropical peat was predominately driven by changes in sea level and regional hydrology. Peat burial by mineral sediments represents a mechanism for long-term terrestrial C storage in the Earth system. These results show that northern peatlands accumulate significant C stocks during warmer times, indicating their potential for C sequestration during the warming Anthropocene.

Treat, Claire C.↗

Modelling above-ground biomass stock over Norway using national forest inventory data with ArcticDEM and Sentinel-2 data

Boreal forests constitute a large portion of the global forest area, yet they are undersampled through field surveys, and only a few remotely sensed data sources provide structural information wall-to-wall throughout the boreal domain. ArcticDEM is a collection of high-resolution (2 m) space-borne stereogrammetric digital surface models (DSM) covering the entire land area north of 60° of latitude. The free-availability of ArcticDEM data offers new possibilities for aboveground biomass mapping (AGB) across boreal forests, and thus it is necessary to evaluate the potential for these data to map AGB over alternative open-data sources (i.e., Sentinel-2). This study was performed over the entire land area of Norway north of 60° of latitude, and the Norwegian national forest inventory (NFI) was used as a source of field data composed of accurately geolocated field plots (n=7710) systematically distributed across the study area. Separate random forest models were fitted using NFI data, and corresponding remotely sensed data consisting of either: i) a canopy height model (ArcticCHM) obtained by subtracting a high-quality digital terrain model (DTM) from the ArcticDEM DSM height values, ii) Sentinel-2 (S2), or iii) a combination of the two (ArcticCHM+S2). Furthermore, we assessed the effect of the forest- and terrain-specific factors on the models’ predictive accuracy. The best model (,i.e., ArcticCHM+S2) explained nearly 60% of the variance of the training set, which translated in the largest accuracy in terms of root mean square error (RMSE=41.4 t/ha). This result highlights the synergy between 3D and multispectral data in AGB modelling. Furthermore, this study showed that despite the importance of ArcticCHM variables, the S2 model performed slightly better than ArcticCHM model. This finding highlights some of the limitations of ArcticDEM, which, despite the unprecedented spatial resolution, is highly heterogeneous due to the blending of multiple acquisitions across different years and seasons. We found that both forest- and terrain-specific characteristics affected the uncertainty of the ArcticCHM+S2 model and concluded that the combined use of ArcticCHM and Sentinel-2 represents a viable solution for AGB mapping across boreal forests. The synergy between the two data sources allowed for a reduction of the saturation effects typical of multispectral data while ensuring the spatial consistency in the output predictions due to the removal of artifacts and data voids present in ArcticCHM data. While the main contribution of this study is to provide the first evidence of the best-case-scenario (i.e., availability of accurate terrain models) that ArcticDEM data can provide for large-scale AGB modelling, it remains critically important for other studies to investigate how ArcticDEM may be used in areas where no DTMs are available as is the case for large portions of the boreal zone.

space-borne imagery↗

End-Use Savings Shapes: Measure Documentation: Add Exhaust Air Heat/Energy Recovery

This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure—Add Exhaust Air Heat/Energy Recovery. This measure adds exhaust air energy recovery or heat recovery to existing air handling units (AHU) with outdoor air. Systems that already have energy/heat recovery are not modified. Furthermore, food service building types are also not modified by this measure due to the added complication of integrating cooking hood exhaust that could cause heat exchanger fouling from kitchen exhaust. In total, this measure is applicable airloops serving ~70% of the floor area in ComStock. In practice, energy/heat recovery systems are retrofitted to existing air delivery systems either as separate systems that provide outdoor air to the AHUs or are directly integrated to an AHU; the modeling approach used in this study is agnostic of the energy recovery type and simply accounts recovery effectiveness, added static pressure, and other controls which are described further in this document. Energy recovery with sensible and latent exchange gets added in humid climate zones, while heat recovery with sensible-only exchange gets added in drier climate zones. Energy recovery is modeled as a fixed membrane plate counterflow heat exchanger, while heat recovery is modeled as a sensible-only fixed aluminum plate counterflow heat exchanger. Both systems include a bypass (for temperature control and economizer lockout) and electric resistance preheat coil for frost prevention.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Heat Pump Rooftop Units with Original Fuel Backup

This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure—heat pump rooftop units with supplemental heat that matches the original fuel type of the replaced system; if the existing system used electric resistance heating, the supplemental heating source is electric resistance. If it was a natural gas furnace, the supplemental system is modeled as natural gas. This is a modification to the heat pump rooftop unit with electric supplemental heat measure from the Commercial EUSS 2023 Release 1 dataset. This document will primarily discuss the supplemental heating change for the heat pump RTU measure. For a comprehensive overview of the fundamental modeling methodology and background of the heat pump RTU measure, including performance curves and other key assumptions, please review the documentation for the original heat pump rooftop unit with electric supplemental heat.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Spatially explicit terrestrial carbon densities for calibrating the carbon cycle in human-Earth system Models

Soil and vegetation carbon stocks play a critical role in human-Earth system models. These stocks (denominated as densities in MgC/ha) affect variables such as land use change emissions and also influence land use change pathways under climate forcing scenarios where terrestrial carbon is assigned a carbon price. Here we present reharmonized soil and vegetation carbon densities both at the 5-arcmin resolution grid cell level and also aggregated to 235 water sheds for 4 land use types (Cropland, Grazed land, Urban land and unmanaged vegetation) and 15 unmanaged land cover types. Moreover, we use the distribution of carbon within and across pixels to define statistical "states" of carbon, once again differentiated by land type. These statistical states are used to define a range of possible carbon values that can be used for defining initial conditions of soil and vegetation carbon in human-Earth system models. We implement these data in a state-of-the-art multi sector dynamics model, namely the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and show that these new data improve several land use responses, especially when terrestrial carbon is assigned a carbon price.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Upgrade Package Documentation: Wall and Roof Insulation, New Windows, LED Lighting, HP-RTU and ASHP-Boiler

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility enduse load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) upgrade measures, or upgrades. “Measures” refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility upgrade applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling occupancy-driven building loads for large and diversified building stocks through the use of parametric schedules

Building energy modeling provides a fundamental tool to assess the potential for energy efficiency to contribute to reducing world energy consumption and global emissions. Occupancy-related operations are a key source of uncertainty for building energy analysis, particularly for aggregated building stocks. At a district or city level, it is critical to estimate aggregated power load profiles for sizing power grid infrastructure, power plant capacity allocation, and energy efficiency measures. The stochastic nature of behavior-related operations complicates the creation of models that accurately capture building load profiles for entire building stocks. This research introduces a new methodology called parametric schedules to model occupancy-driven schedules for large and diverse building stocks. In contrast to computationally expensive methodologies proposed in the literature, our work does not use a recursive time-consuming step. Occupancy is estimated by the extrapolation of operation times directly from metered electric consumption data; occupancy-related schedules are stochastically assigned to each building model, guaranteeing diversity of operation times in the stock. Our procedure has been tested on a large, diversified data-set of 25,000 commercial buildings in Los Angeles, California. It proved to be able to adequately represent the stochastic schedules diversity of the stock and to refine the stock calibration process by 1%. This innovative approach represents a useful asset for utility companies, grid operators, urban planners, and balancing authorities, seeking to improve building stock modeling and better estimate the impact of energy conservation measures. – This work is part of a larger stock modeling tool called ComStock, which is under development by NREL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The impact of behavioral and geographic heterogeneity on residential-sector carbon abatement costs

Analyses of monetary and emissions savings from residential efficiency upgrades usually neglect behavioral differences between consumers. Variations in behavior are frequently large: 13% of the U.S. population sets thermostats for cooling at 20 °C (68 °F) or lower and 15% at 25.5 °C (78 °F) or higher. Efficiency analyses should account for behavioral heterogeneity as well as variations in climate and housing characteristics. We model energy and economic savings of efficiency upgrades for U.S. single-family detached houses, accounting for differences in thermostat settings, climate zone, fuel prices, and home characteristics. We consider five efficiency interventions: wall insulation, attic insulation, air sealing, high-efficiency furnaces, and high-efficiency air conditioners. Energy and economic savings vary widely by consumer; the average net present value for wall insulation is $3,020 United States Dollar (USD), but considering heterogeneity, it has a 10th percentile value of -$231 and 90th percentile value of $5,000. Neglecting heterogeneity, technology upgrades can be prioritized from lower to higher carbon abatement costs: air conditioners, wall insulation, furnace, air sealing, and attic insulation. Accounting for heterogeneity reorders this prioritization, and consumer-specific conditions affect mitigation costs such that technologies are mixed in with one another and are no longer arranged one after another. These results indicate that interventions to improve efficiency should consider differences between consumers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Heat pumps for all? Distributions of the costs and benefits of residential air-source heat pumps in the United States

Electrification of fossil-fuel combustion in buildings is a key component of achieving global greenhouse gas emissions targets. We use physics simulations of 550,000 statistically representative households to analyze distributions of the costs and benefits of three air-to-air heat pump performance levels, with and without insulation upgrades, across the diversity of the US housing stock. We find positive greenhouse gas reductions in every US state for all performance levels across five 2022-2038 electric grid scenarios, with full adoption reducing national emissions by 5%-9%. We find that air-to-air heat pumps could be cost effective without subsidies in 59% of households (65 million). However, efficiency is key: whereas minimum-efficiency equipment could increase energy bills in 39% of households, this fraction is only 19% when also upgrading insulation or 5% when using higher-efficiency equipment, though both strategies have higher upfront costs. Such affordability challenges could be addressed through supportive incentives, policy, and innovation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Accelerating room air conditioner efficiency in India: Grid, economic, and policy implications through 2035

India is poised for a rapid surge in space cooling demand, driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and intensifying heat. Between 2025 and 2035, the country is expected to add 130–150 million new room air conditioners (ACs). If Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) continue to improve at the historical rate of 2–3 % annually, room ACs alone could contribute over 180 GW to peak electricity demand by 2035-nearly 30 % of the projected national total. This study evaluates the impact of an accelerated MEPS trajectory, proposing to raise the 1-star threshold to ISEER 5.0 by 2027, ISEER 6.3 by 2030, and ISEER 7.4 by 2033. Drawing on engineering cost analysis, stock turnover modeling, and retail pricing data, we find that this pathway could reduce peak demand by over 60 GW, save 118 TWh of electricity annually, avoid 49 MtCO₂ of electricity-related emissions per year, avert ₹7.5 trillion (∼US$85 billion) in power system investments, and yield ₹0.7–2.3 trillion (∼US$8–26 billion) in net consumer savings by 2035. Contrary to affordability concerns, empirical trends show that higher efficiency does not increase AC prices. These results highlight the value of ambitious MEPS as a cost-effective strategy for improving grid reliability, reducing emissions, and advancing consumer welfare in emerging economies.

Abhyankar, Nikit↗

Impact of electric vehicle battery recycling on reducing raw material demand and battery life-cycle carbon emissions in China

The rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in China challenges raw material demand. This study evaluates the impact of recycling and reusing EV batteries on reducing material demand and carbon emissions. Integrating a national-level vehicle stock turnover model with life-cycle carbon emission assessment, we found that replacing nickel-cobalt-manganese batteries with lithium iron phosphate batteries with battery recycling can reduce lithium, cobalt, and nickel demand between 2021 and 2060 by up to 7.8 million tons (Mt) (67%), 12.4 Mt (96%), and 37.2 Mt (93%), respectively, significantly decreasing reliance on import. Moreover, battery recycling coupled with reuse can reduce carbon emissions by up to 6,532-6,864 Mt (36.0-37.9%), depending on four recycling methods employed. However, this reuse strategy delays battery recycling and risks lithium supply shortage, necessitating trade-offs between carbon reduction and material supply. Future technologies, such as lithium-sulfur and all-solid-state batteries, despite their energy efficiency, might exacerbate lithium shortage, underscoring the crucial need for increased lithium supply.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The NASA Carbon Monitoring System Phase 2 synthesis: scope, findings, gaps and recommended next steps

Abstract Underlying policy efforts to address global climate change is the scientific need to develop the methods to accurately measure and model carbon stocks and fluxes across the wide range of spatial and temporal scales in the Earth system. Initiated in 2010, the NASA Carbon Monitoring System is one of the most ambitious relevant science initiatives to date, exploiting the satellite remote sensing resources, computational capabilities, scientific knowledge, airborne science capabilities, and end-to-end system expertise that are major strengths of the NASA Earth Science program. Here we provide a synthesis of ‘Phase 2’ activities (2011–2019), encompassing 79 projects, 482 publications, and 136 data products. Our synthesis addresses four key questions: What has been attempted? What major results have been obtained? What major gaps and uncertainties remain? and What are the recommended next steps? Through this review, we take stock of what has been accomplished and identify future priorities toward meeting the nation’s needs for carbon monitoring reporting and verification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coordinating the electric vehicle transition and electricity grid decarbonization in the U.S. is not essential to achieving substantial long-term carbon dioxide emissions reductions

Abstract How quickly the US can decarbonize light-duty vehicle (LDV) transportation depends on the rates of change of electric vehicle (EV) sales, stock turnover, and grid decarbonization. We build a stock turnover model to assess how sensitive achieving 2050 LDV decarbonization targets is to these rates. We estimate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) reductions of 70%–85% by 2050, including emissions from vehicles and upstream electricity generation, provided that new vehicle sales transition to 100% EVs and substantial grid decarbonization are accomplished by 2050. This result is robust to continuation of long-term trends of increasing vehicle longevity, and to whether the timing of EV sales growth and grid decarbonization are coordinated. If the two key goals are met, the annual contribution of EV electricity use to CO 2 emissions will be small over the entire period.

Leard, Benjamin↗

Body size and early marine conditions drive changes in Chinook salmon productivity across northern latitude ecosystems

Disentangling the influences of climate change from other stressors affecting the population dynamics of aquatic species is particularly pressing for northern latitude ecosystems, where climate‐driven warming is occurring faster than the global average. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Yukon‐Kuskokwim (YK) region occupy the northern extent of their species' range and are experiencing prolonged declines in abundance resulting in fisheries closures and impacts to the well‐being of Indigenous people and local communities. These declines have been associated with physical (e.g., temperature, streamflow) and biological (e.g., body size, competition) conditions, but uncertainty remains about the relative influence of these drivers on productivity across populations and how salmon–environment relationships vary across watersheds. To fill these knowledge gaps, we estimated the effects of marine and freshwater environmental indicators, body size, and indices of competition, on the productivity (adult returns‐per‐spawner) of 26 Chinook salmon populations in the YK region using a Bayesian hierarchical stock‐recruitment model. Across most populations, productivity declined with smaller spawner body size and sea surface temperatures that were colder in the winter and warmer in the summer during the first year at sea. Decreased productivity was also associated with above average fall maximum daily streamflow, increased sea ice cover prior to juvenile outmigration, and abundance of marine competitors, but the strength of these effects varied among populations. Maximum daily stream temperature during spawning migration had a nonlinear relationship with productivity, with reduced productivity in years when temperatures exceeded thresholds in main stem rivers. These results demonstrate for the first time that well‐documented declines in body size of YK Chinook salmon were associated with declining population productivity, while taking climate into account.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗