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At least 73 records · Page 4

Model Calibration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Tutorial

The purpose of this tutorial is to demonstrate how to use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to calibrate a model. By calibration, we mean the selection of model parameters (and, when relevant, structures). A common goal in model development and diagnostics is calibration, or the identification of model structures and parameters which are consistent with data. While models can be calibrated through hand-tuning parameters or minimizing simple error metrics such as root-mean-square-error (RMSE), these approaches can underrepresent the probabilistic nature of the data-generating process, as well as the potential for multiple model configurations to be consistent with the data. Probabilistic uncertainty quantification, which is the topic of this notebook, can address these concerns. This tutorial is presented as an appendix to the e-book: Addressing Uncertainty in MultiSector Dynamics Research.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗

Correlated anharmonicity and dynamic disorder control carrier transport in halide perovskites

Halide pervoskites are an important class of semiconducting materials that hold great promise for optoelectronic applications. In this work we investigate the relationship between vibrational anharmonicity and dynamic disorder in this class of solids. Via a multiscale model parametrized from first-principles calculations, we demonstrate that the non-Gaussian lattice motion in halide perovskites is microscopically connected to the dynamic disorder of overlap fluctuations among electronic states. This connection allows us to rationalize the emergent differences in temperature-dependent mobilities of prototypical MAPbI 3 and MAPbBr 3 compounds across structural phase transitions, in agreement with experimental findings. In conclusion, our analysis suggests that the details of vibrational anharmonicity and dynamic disorder can complement known predictors of electronic conductivity and can provide structure-property guidelines for the tuning of carrier transport characteristics in anharmonic semiconductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Facet-dependent structure and dissociation of water at pristine IrO 2 /water interfaces

Understanding the microscopic structure of water at metal oxide interfaces is crucial for advancing electrocatalysis. IrO 2 , specifically, has shown exceptional activity for electrochemical water oxidation, but we currently lack a fundamental understanding of how the surface structure of IrO 2 impacts water reactivity. In this work, we developed a machine learning potential trained to first-principles accuracy for modeling IrO 2 /water interfaces across different facets: (110), (100), (101), and (001). Using extensive machine learning molecular dynamics simulations, we investigated the spontaneous dissociation of water molecules at these interfaces. Our results reveal a distinct dissociation probability trend: (110) > (100) ≈ (101) > (001), which we attribute primarily to the reaction thermodynamics of surface water dissociation. A strong correlation is observed between the surface Ir–O bond distances and the dissociation probabilities, highlighting the role of surface geometry in modulating reactivity. As a consequence, the interfacial solvation structures and hydrogen bonding environments are dynamically tuned by the varying water dissociation capabilities across facets. This work elucidates how water dissociation energetics depend on surface orientation and interfacial structure, offering atomistic insights into manipulating reaction chemistry at electrocatalytic interfaces.

organic↗

Mineralized sclerites in the gorgonian coral Leptogorgia chilensis as a natural jamming system

The soft corals (Cnidaria, Octocorallia), a diverse group of colonial marine invertebrates, can reversibly tune their body stiffness in response to external stimuli. This capability is attributed to their dynamic skeletal systems, which consist of thousands of mineralized skeletal elements, called sclerites, embedded within a gel-like matrix that swells/deswells and unjams/jams the sclerites, thus modulating skeletal stiffness. While sclerite morphology is widely used for species identification, its role in the mechanical performance of a soft coral’s skeletal system is largely unknown. Here, we investigated structure-jamming relationships in sclerite-based skeletal architectures using the red gorgonian octocoral Leptogorgia chilensis as a model system. The sclerites of L. chilensis exhibit a shaft-like geometry with two axial branches and two sets of triradiate side branches, which are aligned with the crystallographic symmetry of the constituent magnesium-containing calcite. By combining multiscale three-dimensional (3D) structural characterization, parametric geometrical modeling, 3D printing, mechanical testing, and discrete element simulations, we demonstrate how sclerite geometry achieves a balanced jamming performance in terms of stiffness, weight, strength, and fracture resistance in comparison to alternative geometries parametrically modified from the native sclerites (e.g., changes in the length and number of side branches). Here, we also found that these performance metrics are achieved through the effective interlocking among side and axial branches, which is further enhanced by the fractal-like microscopic spikes on the branch tips. The findings in this natural jamming system offer insights for designing synthetic mechanotunable material architectures for a wide range of applications, from soft robotics to mechanical dampeners.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tuning anisotropic bonding via chemistry and pressure in layered pnictides and chalcogenides (Final Report)

The overarching goal of this research program, as originally delineated in the proposal “Tuning anisotropic bonding via chemistry and pressure in layered pnictides and chalcogenides” was to develop a predictive, chemistry-driven understanding of the impact of the phonon behavior on thermal properties of bulk layered materials. At finite temperatures, atomic vibrations (phonons) strongly impact the thermodynamics, thermal and electrical transport, and phase-switching properties of functional materials. In particular, soft phonon modes and strongly anharmonic potentials can have spectacular consequences, including structural phase transitions (for example in ferroelectrics and phase-change memory materials), metal-insulator transitions, and extreme thermal resistance preventing heat propagation. Bulk materials with highly-anisotropic bonding may provide unique strategies to induce soft-phonon modes and lattice instabilities. Recently, increasingly detailed investigations of the lattice dynamics in layered materials have been made possible by the advent of first-principles phonon calculations and advanced characterization techniques based on neutron and X-ray scattering. However, due to the lack of studies in which composition and bonding character are systematically varied, there are still fundamental questions regarding the impacts of anisotropic bonding and anharmonicity on lattice stability and thermal transport. One of the major goals of this research program is therefore to address this gap by coherently tuning bonding anisotropy and anharmonicity across families of related compounds. Such approaches have revealed new strategies for exploiting structural anisotropy in quasi-1D and 2D bulk materials to obtain tailored functional properties. This project systematically explored the lattice dynamics, phase stability, and transport properties in bulk layered materials by using both composition and applied pressure to tune the degree of bonding anisotropy and anharmonicity. To accomplish this work, we combined i) single-crystal growth of key material systems with tunable anisotropy, ii) in-situ high-temperature/high-pressure characterization of structure and phonons to probe bonding anisotropy and anharmonicity, including state-of-the-art inelastic X-ray scattering (IXS) and inelastic neutron scattering (INS), and iii) first-principles simulations leveraging large-scale computing to identify the fundamental origins of the observed effects, by relating atomic structure and dynamics to electronic orbital interactions. Finally, we modeled and verified the impact of the phonon behavior on thermal transport to identify new strategies for a-priori design of thermal conductivity. Our integrated collaborative approach helped to systematically unravel the effects of anisotropy and bonding anharmonicity on phonon transport, thermodynamics, and thermal properties of complex anisotropic materials.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Tuning anisotropic bonding via chemistry and pressure in layered pnictides and chalcogenides. Final Report

The overarching goal of this research program, as originally delineated in the proposal “Tuning anisotropic bonding via chemistry and pressure in layered pnictides and chalcogenides” was to develop a predictive, chemistry-driven understanding of the impact of the phonon behavior on thermal properties of bulk layered materials. At finite temperatures, atomic vibrations (phonons) strongly impact the thermodynamics, thermal and electrical transport, and phase-switching properties of functional materials. In particular, soft phonon modes and strongly anharmonic potentials can have spectacular consequences, including structural phase transitions (for example in ferroelectrics and phase-change memory materials), metal-insulator transitions, and extreme thermal resistance preventing heat propagation. Bulk materials with highly-anisotropic bonding may provide unique strategies to induce soft-phonon modes and lattice instabilities. Recently, increasingly detailed investigations of the lattice dynamics in layered materials have been made possible by the advent of first-principles phonon calculations and advanced characterization techniques based on neutron and X-ray scattering. However, due to the lack of studies in which composition and bonding character are systematically varied, there are still fundamental questions regarding the impacts of anisotropic bonding and anharmonicity on lattice stability and thermal transport. One of the major goals of this research program is therefore to address this gap by coherently tuning bonding anisotropy and anharmonicity across families of related compounds. Such approaches have revealed new strategies for exploiting structural anisotropy in quasi-1D and 2D bulk materials to obtain tailored functional properties. This project systematically explored the lattice dynamics, phase stability, and transport properties in bulk layered materials by using both composition and applied pressure to tune the degree of bonding anisotropy and anharmonicity. To accomplish this work, we combined i) single-crystal growth of key material systems with tunable anisotropy, ii) in-situ high-temperature/high-pressure characterization of structure and phonons to probe bonding anisotropy and anharmonicity, including state-of-the-art inelastic X-ray scattering (IXS) and inelastic neutron scattering (INS), and iii) first-principles simulations leveraging large-scale computing to identify the fundamental origins of the observed effects, by relating atomic structure and dynamics to electronic orbital interactions. Finally, we modeled and verified the impact of the phonon behavior on thermal transport to identify new strategies for a-priori design of thermal conductivity. Our integrated collaborative approach helped to systematically unravel the effects of anisotropy and bonding anharmonicity on phonon transport, thermodynamics, and thermal properties of complex anisotropic materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Advanced Modeling of Beam Physics and Performance Optimization for Nuclear Physics Colliders

High energy colliders provide a critical tool in nuclear physics study by probing the fundamental structure and dynamics of matter. To maximize the potential of scientific discovery in nuclear physics study, it is important to optimize the parameters of these colliders to attain the best performance. The performance of a collider is typically measured by its integrated luminosity of colliding beams since the probability of a new event is proportional to the integrated luminosity. However, the achievable luminosity is limited by the electromagnetic interactions (beam-beam effects) of two colliding beams at higher energy, and the interplay between the space-charge effects and the beam-beam effects at lower energy. To achieve the best performance of a collider means to attain the highest luminosity of the collider with optimized collider parameters. Optimizing the collider’s machine parameters is both computationally and experimentally expensive. A fast and robust computational framework including beam-beam and space-charge effects will be critical to attaining the best performance of the collider. In this project, we will study the beam dynamics challenges, specifically the interplay of the space-charge and the beam-beam effects, and the machine tuning models for maximizing the performance of RHIC experiments. We will develop an advanced modeling framework based on first-principles physical simulations, lattice models and the state-of-the-art machine learning methods and apply this framework to performance improvement of the RHIC in operation. We will build data manipulation packages to connect the simulation data and the experimental data with the framework, develop a self-consistent hybrid model of space-charge and beam-beam effects, study underlying physics mechanisms, build surrogate models using the labeled data, integrate the models into the advanced modeling framework, and apply the framework to RHIC luminosity (STAR and sPHENIX) optimization. The success of this project would substantially improve the performance of existing and future colliders and increase the opportunity for scientific discovery.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Ion Pairing Mediates Molecular Organization Across Liquid/Liquid Interfaces

Liquid/liquid interfaces play a central role in scientific fields ranging from nanomaterial synthesis and soft matter electronics to nuclear waste remediation and chemical separations. This diversity of functions arises from an interface’s ability to respond to changing conditions in its neighboring bulk phases. Understanding what drives this interfacial flexibility can provide novel avenues for designing new functional interfaces. However, limiting this progress is an inadequate understanding of the subtle intermolecular and interphase interactions taking place at the molecular level. Here, we use surface-specific vibrational sum frequency generation spectroscopy combined with atomistic molecular dynamics simulations to investigate the self-assembly and structure of model ionic oligomers consisting of an oligodimethylsiloxane (ODMS) tail covalently attached to a positively charged methyl imidazolium (MIM + ) head group at buried oil/aqueous interfaces. We show how the presence of seemingly innocuous salts can impart dramatic changes to the ODMS tail conformations in the oil phase via specific ion effects and ion-pairing interactions taking place in the aqueous phase. These specific ion interactions are shown to drive enhanced amphiphile adsorption, induce morphological changes, and disrupt emergent hydrogen-bonding structures at the interface. Tuning these interactions allows for independent control over the oligomer structure in the oil phase versus interfacial population changes and represents key mechanistic insight that is needed to control chemical reactions at liquid/liquid interfaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multilayered Ordered Protein Arrays Self-Assembled from a Mixed Population of Virus-like Particles

Biology shows many examples of spatially controlled assembly of cells and biomacromolecules into hierarchically organized structures, to which many of the complex biological functions are attributed. While such biological structures have inspired the design of synthetic materials, it is still a great challenge to control the spatial arrangement of individual building blocks when assembling multiple types of components into bulk materials. Here, in this study, we report self-assembly of multilayered, ordered protein arrays from mixed populations of virus-like particles (VLPs). We systematically tuned the magnitude of the surface charge of the VLPs via mutagenesis to prepare four different types of VLPs for mixing. A mixture of up to four types of VLPs selectively assembled into higher-order structures in the presence of oppositely charged dendrimers during a gradual lowering of the ionic strength of the solution. The assembly resulted in the formation of three-dimensional ordered VLP arrays with up to four distinct layers including a central core, with each layer comprising a single type of VLP. A coarse-grained computational model was developed and simulated using molecular dynamics to probe the formation of the multilayered, core-shell structure. Our findings establish a simple and versatile bottom-up strategy to synthesize multilayered, ordered materials by controlling the spatial arrangement of multiple types of nanoscale building blocks in a one-pot fabrication.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Effectiveness and nonlinear characterization of vibro-impact energy harvesting absorbers in controlling base-excited systems

In this study, model derivations are carried out of a dynamical system under base excitations with a piezoelectric energy harvesting absorber as the tuned-mass-damper. Additionally, amplitude stoppers are included to the absorber in order to create a broadband resonant response, increasing the window of operational use for energy harvesting and system's control. This study is unique in the fact that the energy harvester is coupled to the source of its excitation. A nonlinear reduced-order model is developed using Euler–Lagrange principle and the Galerkin method to accurately estimate the energy harvesting absorber's displacement, harvested power, and the oscillating response of the primary structure. The nonlinear interaction of the energy harvesting absorber and the amplitude stoppers are the focus of this study, where an in-depth investigation of bifurcation points of the primary structure and energy harvesting absorber responses is performed. Due to a transfer of energy between the primary structure and the absorber, it is shown that a soft stopper with stiffness $5 \times {10^3}\,{\text{N}}\;{{\text{m}}^{ - 1}}\,$ has great control of the primary structure with 60% of the uncontrolled amplitude being reduced, as well as an increase of the harvested energy. Medium stoppers with small initial gaps size and hard stoppers do not control the primary structure and show a decrease in the energy harvesting capabilities due to the activation of the nonlinear contact-impact interactions. Finally, these stoppers also generate aperiodic regions due to the possible presence of grazing bifurcations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Robust multi‐loop control of a floating wind turbine

Abstract A principal challenge facing the control of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) is the problem of instability, or “negative damping,” when using blade pitch feedback to control generator speed. This closed‐loop instability can be attributed to non‐minimum phase zeros in the transfer function from blade pitch to generator speed. Standard approaches to improving stability and performance include robust tuning of control gains and introducing multiple feedback loops to respond to platform motion. Combining these approaches is nontrivial because multiple control loops complicate the impact of coupling in the system dynamics. The single‐loop approach to analyzing stability robustness neglects inter‐loop coupling, while a simplistic multi‐loop approach is highly sensitive to dimensional scaling and overestimates the robustness of the single‐loop controller. This work proposes a sensitivity representation that separates some of the natural FOWT dynamic coupling into a parallel feedback loop in the sensitivity function loop to address both of these concerns. The modified robustness measure is used with a simplified linear FOWT model to optimize scheduled multi‐loop control parameters in an automated tuning procedure. This controller is implemented for the 10‐MW Ultraflexible Smart FLoating Offshore Wind Turbine (USFLOWT) and compared against conventional single‐ and multi‐loop controllers tuned using frequency‐domain analysis and high‐fidelity OpenFAST simulations. The multi‐loop robust controller shows the highest overall performance in generator speed regulation and tower load reduction, though consideration of power quality, actuator usage, and other structural loading leads to additional trade‐offs.

Stockhouse, David↗

Rational design of heterogeneous single-site catalysts via surface organometallic chemistry

Single-site heterogeneous catalysts offer an attractive route to unite the molecular precision of homogeneous catalysis with the durability and practical advantages of solids. Surface organometallic chemistry (SOMC) provides a particularly powerful strategy for this purpose by grafting molecular precursors onto tailored surfaces and converting support functionalities into ligand environments for isolated metal centers. As a result, SOMC brings the language and logic of coordination chemistry to heterogeneous catalysis, where the support becomes an integral part of the active site coordination sphere. This Review surveys recent progress in the rational design of SOMC-derived single-site catalysts, with emphasis on synthetic routes, post synthetic transformations, and the deliberate tuning of catalytic behavior through metal-support interactions. Discussions are made on how support identity, hydroxyl topology, acidity, and redox activity shape the geometry, electronic structure, and oxidation state of supported metal sites, as well as how these factors determine activity, selectivity, and stability. We also examine a central limitation of these systems: despite their molecularly informed design, supported single sites often exist as structurally distributed ensembles rather than uniform species, particularly on amorphous supports. This site heterogeneity, along with catalyst dynamics under operating conditions, remains a major barrier to definitive structure-activity relationships. Therefore, emerging approaches that combine advanced characterization, first-principles modeling, ensemble kinetics, and machine learning to resolve active-site structure and guide catalyst development are highlighted. Together, these advances position SOMC as a versatile coordination chemistry framework for the predictive design of heterogeneous catalysts with well-defined molecularly tailored active sites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Systematic mapping of the conformational landscape and dynamism of soluble fibrinogen

Background: Fibrinogen is a soluble, multisubunit, and multidomain dimeric protein, which, upon its proteolytic cleavage by thrombin, is converted to insoluble fibrin, initiating polymerization that substantially contributes to clot growth. Fibrinogen contains numerous, transiently accessible “cryptic” epitopes for hemostatic and immunologic proteins, suggesting that fibrinogen exhibits conformational flexibility, which may play functional roles in its temporal and spatial interactions. Hitherto, there have been limited integrative approaches characterizing the solution structure and internal flexibility of fibrinogen. Methods: Here, utilizing a multipronged, biophysical approach involving 2 solution-based techniques, temperature-dependent hydrogen-deuterium exchange mass spectrometry and small angle X-ray scattering, corroborated by negative stain electron microscopy, we present a holistic, conformationally dynamic model of human fibrinogen in solution. Results: Our data reveal 4 major and distinct conformations of fibrinogen accommodated by a high degree of internal protein flexibility along its central scaffold. We propose that the fibrinogen structure in the solution consists of a complex, conformational landscape with multiple local minima. This is further supported by the location of numerous point mutations that are linked to dysfibrinogenemia and posttranslational modifications, residing near the identified fibrinogen flexions. Conclusion: Further, this work provides a molecular basis for the structural “dynamism” of fibrinogen that is expected to influence the broad swath of its functionally diverse macromolecular interactions and fine-tune the structural and mechanical properties of blood clots.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of Anisotropic Confinement on Electronic Structure and Dynamics of Band Edge Excitons in Inorganic Perovskite Nanowires

Inorganic lead halide perovskite nanostructures show promise as the active layers in photovoltaics, light emitting diodes, and other optoelectronic devices. They are robust in the presence of oxygen and water, and the electronic structure and dynamics of these nanostructures can be tuned through quantum confinement. Here we create aligned bundles of CsPbBr3 nanowires with widths resulting in quantum confinement of the electronic wave functions and subject them to ultrafast microscopy. We directly image rapid one-dimensional exciton diffusion along the nanowires, and we measure an exciton trap density of roughly one per nanowire. Using transient absorption microscopy, we observe a polarization-dependent splitting of the band edge exciton line, and from the polarized fluorescence of nanowires in solution, we determine that the exciton transition dipole moments are anisotropic in strength. Furthermore, our observations are consistent with a model in which splitting is driven by shape anisotropy in conjunction with long-range exchange.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Defect-Driven Oxide Transformations and the Electrochemical Interphase

The redox reaction pathway is crucial to the sustainable production of the fuels and chemicals required for a carbon-neutral society. Our society is becoming increasingly dependent on devices using batteries and electrolyzers, all of which rely on a series of redox reactions. The overall properties of oxide materials make them very well suited for such electrochemical and catalytic applications due to their associated cationic redox properties and the static site-adsorbate interactions. As these technologies have matured, it has become apparent that defect-driven redox reactions, defect-coupled diffusion, and structural transformations that are both time- and rate-dependent are also critical materials processes. This change in focus, considering not only redox properties but also more complex, dynamic behaviors, represents a new research frontier in the molecular sciences as they are strongly linked to device operation and degradation and lie at the heart of various phenomena that take place at electrochemical interfaces. Fundamental studies of the structural, electronic, and chemical transformation mechanisms are key to the advancement of materials and technological innovations that could be implemented in various electrochemical systems. In this Account, we focus on recent studies and advances in characterizing and understanding the dynamic redox evolution and structural transformations that take place in model perovskites and layered oxides under reactive conditions and correlate them with degradation mechanisms and operations in electrolyzers and batteries. We show that the dynamic evolution of oxygen vacancies and cationic migration in the surface or bulk occurs at the solid-liquid interface, using a combination of different synchrotron-based Xray spectroscopies and scattering probes. Detailed redox-structure-reactivity correlation studies show how defects and diffusion processes can be tailored to drive various physical and chemical transformations in electrolyzers and batteries. We also highlight a strong correlation between oxygen redox reactivity and structural reorganization in both model thin films and particles, helping to bridge the gap between fundamental studies of the reaction mechanism and device applications. Finally, on the basis of these findings, we discuss strategies to probe and tune the redox reactivity and structural stability of the redox-active oxide interphase toward devising efficient pathways for energy and chemical harvesting.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ab initio calculations of the rate of carrier trapping and release at dopant sites in NaI: Tl beyond the harmonic approximation

We present ab initio calculations of electron capture and release coefficients as a function of temperature for Tl dopants in the widely used scintillator NaI, which is a soft ionic crystal. The modelled capture and release events occur by transitions mediated by multiple phonon absorption and emission between states with significantly different local geometries around the trapping site. We demonstrate that such transitions are not well-described by the normal harmonic approximation to the nuclear dynamics. We avoid the harmonic approximation by numerically solving the vibrational Schrödinger equation for the motion along/of a single effective phonon coordinate. The localized trapped state is not correctly described by semilocal density functionals, so we employ a hybrid functional tuned to reproduce the band gap and lattice constant of the host material. Our calculations, which combine plane-wave and cluster electronic structure methods in a novel way, are in reasonable agreement with available experimental data for detrapping and predict an unusual temperature dependence for trapping rates.

Prange, Micah P.↗

Mechanistic Insights into the Demethylation of Lignin‐Derived Structures Using Protic Ionic Liquids: A Density Functional Theory Study

Lignin valorization is restricted by the stability of its methoxy groups, creating a critical need for efficient demethylation strategies. Here, in this study, density functional theory (DFT) is employed to dissect the mechanistic pathways of demethylation in lignin model compounds, guaiacol and syringol, using protic ionic liquids (PILs) that act as both solvent and catalyst. Conductor‐like Screening Model for Real Solvents (COSMO‐RS) analysis identifies monoethanolammonium acetate ([MEOA][Ace]) as the most promising medium, attributed to its strong hydrogen bonding network and solvation ability. By integrating implicit and explicit solvation models, it is revealed that an acid‐catalyzed hydrolytic mechanism governs demethylation, with PILs stabilizing crucial transition states and intermediates. Complementary electronic structure evaluations, including highest occupied molecular orbital–lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (HOMO‐LUMO) gap analysis, charge distribution, and electrostatic potential mapping, demonstrate how PILs lower energetic barriers and enhance reactivity. To simulate realistic environments, this study is extended to lignin dimer complexes with varying water content, uncovering how water‐bridged solvation reverses demethylation preference from guaiacyl to syringyl units. This mechanistic shift aligns with experimental observations showing faster S‐unit reactivity in hydrated systems. Together, these findings provide atomic‐level insight into lignin demethylation dynamics and highlight how tuning acid concentration in PILs can accelerate kinetics, enabling a rational pathway toward next‐generation biomass conversion technologies.

COSMO-RS↗

KGML-ag: a modeling framework of knowledge-guided machine learning to simulate agroecosystems: a case study of estimating N<sub>2</sub>O emission using data from mesocosm experiments

Abstract. Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emission accounts for a non-trivial fraction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. To date, estimating N2O fluxes from cropland remains a challenging task because the related microbial processes (e.g., nitrification and denitrification) are controlled by complex interactions among climate, soil, plant and human activities. Existing approaches such as process-based (PB) models have well-known limitations due to insufficient representations of the processes or uncertainties of model parameters, and due to leverage recent advances in machine learning (ML) a new method is needed to unlock the “black box” to overcome its limitations such as low interpretability, out-of-sample failure and massive data demand. In this study, we developed a first-of-its-kind knowledge-guided machine learning model for agroecosystems (KGML-ag) by incorporating biogeophysical and chemical domain knowledge from an advanced PB model, ecosys, and tested it by comparing simulating daily N2O fluxes with real observed data from mesocosm experiments. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) was used as the basis to build the model structure. To optimize the model performance, we have investigated a range of ideas, including (1) using initial values of intermediate variables (IMVs) instead of time series as model input to reduce data demand; (2) building hierarchical structures to explicitly estimate IMVs for further N2O prediction; (3) using multi-task learning to balance the simultaneous training on multiple variables; and (4) pre-training with millions of synthetic data generated from ecosys and fine-tuning with mesocosm observations. Six other pure ML models were developed using the same mesocosm data to serve as the benchmark for the KGML-ag model. Results show that KGML-ag did an excellent job in reproducing the mesocosm N2O fluxes (overall r2=0.81, and RMSE=3.6 mgNm-2d-1 from cross validation). Importantly, KGML-ag always outperforms the PB model and ML models in predicting N2O fluxes, especially for complex temporal dynamics and emission peaks. Besides, KGML-ag goes beyond the pure ML models by providing more interpretable predictions as well as pinpointing desired new knowledge and data to further empower the current KGML-ag. We believe the KGML-ag development in this study will stimulate a new body of research on interpretable ML for biogeochemistry and other related geoscience processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗