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DOE OSTI2024

Seasonal Sulfur Redox Cycling in Two Constructed Wetlands with Insight on How They Age

Long-term metal remediation in wetland treatment systems (WTSs) involves facilitating dissimilatory sulfate reduction to produce sulfide and mineralize metals in deep sediments. We evaluated seasonal sulfur cycling in two constructed wetlands (Maintained WTS constructed in 2007, and the Unmaintained WTS constructed in 2000) on the Savannah River Site in Aiken, South Carolina, USA. Significant interactions in sulfide concentration were observed between sediment depth, season, and wetland (F = 4.64, df = 11, P = 3.28 × 10 − 5). In the Maintained WTS, dissimilatory sulfate reduction dominated the surface sediments during the warm season (0–2 cm depth, t=-2.66, P = 9.70 × 10 − 3), unlike the Unmaintained system. Sulfate concentrations in pore waters increased in the warm season (F = 7.84, df = 1, P = 6.50 × 10 − 3), contrary to expectations. Sulfur limitation in the Unmaintained WTS during the warm season correlated with increased sulfur assimilation in giant bulrush. Lower sulfide concentrations in surface sediments of the Unmaintained WTS illustrated aging effects. The Maintained WTS shows potential for managing erosion, pH reduction, and sulfur limitation observed in the older Unmaintained WTS.

Biogeochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural Networks to Find the Optimal Forcing for Offsetting the Anthropogenic Climate Change Effects

Abstract Of great relevance to climate engineering is the systematic relationship between the radiative forcing to the climate system and the response of the system, a relationship often represented by the linear response function (LRF) of the system. However, estimating the LRF often becomes an ill-posed inverse problem due to high-dimensionality and nonunique relationships between the forcing and response. Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to address the ill-posed inverse problem through regularization and sparse system fitting. Here, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) for regularized inversion. The CNN is trained using the surface temperature responses from a set of Green’s function perturbation experiments as imagery input data together with data sample densification. The resulting CNN model can infer the forcing pattern responsible for the temperature response from out-of-sample forcing scenarios. This promising proof of concept suggests a possible strategy for estimating the optimal forcing to negate certain undesirable effects of climate change. The limited success of this effort underscores the challenges of solving an inverse problem for a climate system with inherent nonlinearity. Significance Statement Predicting the climate response for a given climate forcing is a direct problem, while inferring the forcing for a given desired climate response is often an inverse, ill-posed, problem, posing a new challenge to the climate community. This study makes the first attempt to infer the radiative forcing for a given target pattern of global surface temperature response using a deep learning approach. The resulting deeply trained convolutional neural network inversion model shows promise in capturing the forcing pattern corresponding to a given surface temperature response, with a significant implication on the design of an optimal solar radiation management strategy for curbing global warming. This study also highlights the technical challenges that future research should prioritize in seeking feasible solutions to the inverse climate problem.

Ren, Huiying↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Utility of near‐surface phenology in estimating productivity and evapotranspiration across diverse ecosystems

Abstract Agroecosystems, which include row crops, pasture, and grass and shrub grazing lands, are sensitive to changes in management, weather, and genetics. To better understand how these systems are responding to changes, we need to improve monitoring and modeling carbon and water dynamics. Vegetation Indices (VIs) are commonly used to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET), but these empirical relationships are often location and crop specific. There is a need to evaluate if VIs can be effective and, more general, predictors of ecosystem processes through time and across different agroecosystems. Near‐surface photographic (red‐green‐blue) images from PhenoCam can be used to calculate the VI green chromatic coordinate (G CC ) and offer a pathway to improve understanding of field‐scale relationships between VIs and GPP and ET. We synthesized observations spanning 76 site‐years across 15 agroecosystem sites with PhenoCam G CC and GPP or ET estimates from eddy covariance (EC) to quantify interannual variability (IAV) in the relationship between GPP and ET and G CC across. We uncovered a high degree of variability in the strength and slopes of the G CC ∼ GPP and ET relationships (R 2 = 0.1 ‐ 0.9) within and across production systems. Overall, G CC is a better predictor of GPP than ET (R 2 = 0.64 and 0.54, respectively), performing best in croplands (R 2 = 0.91). Shrub‐dominated systems exhibit the lowest predictive power of G CC for GPP and ET but have less IAV in slope. We propose that PhenoCam estimates of G CC could provide an alternative approach for predictions of ecosystem processes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2025

AmeriFlux US-YNS North Star Yedoma

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-YNS North Star Yedoma. Site Description - Dry hillslope underlain by ice rich permafrost and now covered with native grasses and managed as a rustic golf course. The land clearing performed decades ago has caused permafrost thawing, surface subsidence, and development of thermokarst mounds or baidjarahks. No foreign fill materials, pesticides or fertilizers have been used, and the area is not irrigated. The area outside the flux footprint is second growth deciduous forest with similar soil conditions.

Anthony, Katey Walter [University of Alaska Fairba↗

DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Model Source Code

This repository contains the source code for Xanthos-Lake, a lake-modeling extension of the Xanthos framework that introduces a coupled lake component comprising the Xanthos-Lake Snow and Ice Model (xLSIM) and the Xanthos-Lake Water Balance Model (xLWBM). xLSIM is a basin-aware machine-learning model for lake snow, ice, and thermal conditions. It predicts monthly lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice fraction from meteorological forcing and lake surface-area information. It uses sequence-based deep-learning architectures, including Transformer and hybrid Long Short-Term Memory–Transformer (LSTM–Transformer) models, together with seasonal encoding, multi-lake learning, physical masking, and basin-level cryospheric and non-cryospheric classification. The training workflow uses Ray for scalable execution and includes optional Ray Tune hyperparameter optimization. Model predictions, observations, diagnostics, and feature-importance outputs are written in NetCDF. xLWBM is the water-balance component of the new lake framework. It simulates monthly lake storage, surface area, evaporation, inflow, outflow, and lake–groundwater exchange. It combines physical water-balance equations with calibrated bathymetric relationships, weir-based outlet flow, modified Penman open-water evaporation, groundwater head relaxation, Penman–Monteith snow and ice sublimation, and snow, ice, and thermal conditions supplied by xLSIM. The model calibrates lake parameters against satellite-derived surface-area data, using evaporation-based calibration where surface-area data are unavailable, and supports small, medium, and large lake classes. For large lakes, xLWBM is integrated with the managed-routing workflow so that lake storage and outflow interact directly with downstream river routing and reservoir operations. Together, xLSIM and xLWBM provide Xanthos with a coupled lake-modeling capability. xLSIM supplies the snow, ice, and thermal conditions that affect lake evaporation and snow- and ice-related water exchanges, while xLWBM translates those conditions into dynamic lake storage, surface area, evaporation, and discharge. In return, xLWBM supplies evolving lake surface area to xLSIM. This coupling enables Xanthos to represent lakes as active hydrologic components within basin-scale water-availability and routing simulations.

Machine Learning↗

DOE OSTI2026

Topological Control of Triply Periodic Minimal Surfaces for Thermal Design and Advanced Manufacturing: A Gyroid Case Study

Recently, there has been a heightened interest in using triply periodic minimal surfaces (TPMSs) in the design of compact process engineering components. The benefits of high surface area per unit volume, modular form, and inherent periodicity provide a holistic self-supporting network and flow-conducive features. Applications of importance include thermal power management, biomimetic scaffolds and structures, and feasibility of advanced manufacturing. This study presents a novel approach to the manipulation of the characteristic Schwarz-G, or gyroid TPMS, for thermal design in the context of advanced manufacturing. The study presents relationships between design parameters and resulting surface area as a target response using the characteristic equation of a gyroid. Through parametric control, the characteristic equation is manipulated to produce a 20-fold increase in achievable area over a baseline design characteristic of 25.4 mm through controlled combinations of design parameters. A second relationship is presented as a function of the maximum area achieved and manipulated design parameters. Through the analysis, the study presents a framework to identify and maximize the achievable area of TPMSs for advanced manufacturing and thermal management applications.

gyroid↗

DOE OSTI2024

Refractory wettability and surface tension of several nuclear waste glass simulants

Not Available

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Growth of Well-Defined Model Catalysts for Electrochemistry: From Surface Science Studies to Electrocatalytic CO2 Conversion

We combined ultrahigh vacuum (UHV) surface science techniques, electrochemical measurements, and computational modeling to investigate electrocatalytic systems that are crucial components of the carbon management effort, including oxygen evolution reactions (OER) and CO2 reduction reactions (CO2RR). Well-defined Model catalysts were grown on substrates in the UHV chamber and characterized with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM). Selected model electrocatalysts were then tested in electrochemical cells to establish the structure-property relationships in OER and CO2RR. Our results showed that the edge sites of Fe2O3 grown on Au(111) were the most active toward OER and incorporation of Ni at the edge sites (NiFeOx) further boosted their OER activity. We also resolved the size-dependent electrocatalytic CO2-to-CO conversion of the Ag nanoparticle electrocatalysts with average particle diameter between 2 to 6 nm: smaller diameter (< 3 nm) particles favored H2 evolution reaction (HER) due to a high population of Ag edge sites, whereas larger diameter particles favored CO2RR as the population of Ag(100) surface sites grew. We further discovered that electronic interactions between small diameter Ag particles and highly defective carbon supports could break the size-dependent CO2RR selectivity, resulting in highly selective (CO Faradaic Efficiency > 90%) and active Ag nanoparticle electrocatalysts with sizes < 2 nm diameter.

Deng, Xingyi↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian batch optimization for molybdenum versus tungsten inertial confinement fusion double shell target design

Access to reliable, clean energy sources is a major concern for national security. Much research is focused on the “grand challenge” of producing energy via controlled fusion reactions in a laboratory setting. For fusion experiments, specifically inertial confinement fusion (ICF), to produce sufficient energy, the fusion reactions in the ICF fuel need to become self-sustaining and burn deuterium-tritium (DT) fuel efficiently. The recent record-breaking NIF ignition shot was able to achieve this goal as well as produce more energy than used to drive the experiment. This achievement brings self-sustaining fusion-based power systems closer than ever before, capable of providing humans with access to secure, renewable energy. In order to further progress toward the actualization of such power systems, more ICF experiments need to be conducted at large laser facilities such as the United States's National Ignition Facility (NIF) or France's Laser Mega-Joule. The high cost per shot and limited number of shots that are possible per year make it prohibitive to perform large numbers of experiments. As such, experimental design relies heavily on complex predictive physics simulations for high-fidelity “preshot” analysis. These multidimensional, multi-physics, high-fidelity simulations have to account for a variety of input parameters as well as modeling the extreme conditions (pressures and densities) present at ignition. Such simulations (especially in 3D) can become computationally prohibitive to turn around for each ICF experiment. In this work, we explore using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes (GPs) to find optimal designs for ICF double shell targets, while keeping computational costs to manageable levels. These double shell targets have an inner shell that grades from beryllium on the outer surface to the higher Z material molybdenum, as opposed to the nominally used tungsten, on the inside in order to trade off between the high performance associated with high density inner shells and capsule stability. We describe our results for “capsule-only” xRAGE simulations to study the physics between different capsule designs, inner shell materials, and potential for future experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the Radioactive Material Release in the Harborview Research and Training Building and Implications for Emergency Response

On May 2, 2019, during the 137 Cs source recovery operation, a source capsule in a research irradiator containing approximately 77.1 TBq was breached. Based on a geometric reconstruction analysis of the damage to the capsule, approximately 46.3 GBq (0.04%) was impacted by the chop saw (grinder) inside a Mobile Hot Cell (MHC) on the loading dock at the University of Washington Harborview Research and Training (HRT) Building. A very small fraction of the material impacted, less than 1%) was released from the Mobile Hot Cell and then to the rest of the HRT Building. The objectives of this project were to assess the accidental release of 137 CsCl and its implications related to emergency response methods and the ramifications of 137 CsCl transport. The phenomenology of this event was also compared with past alkali halide dispersal events. The vast number of measurements and samples collected by the remediation contractors, the Department of Energy's Nuclear Emergency Support Team, and the small number of retrospective samples collected by the authors informed the analysis. The techniques included (1) autoradiography and electron microscopy of samples collected from the HRT Building and the irradiator, (2) 3D visualization of deposition on surfaces and within the ventilation system, and (3) a study of the damage to the source capsule to evaluate the Cs particle size and particle composition due to the grinding accident. Subsequently, the cesium contaminant transport through the numerous pathways in the building was reconstructed to assess the deposition on surfaces as a function of particle size. The implications for emergency response are relevant to data quality and management. A Data Quality Objective (DQO) guides data collection methods so that they have appropriate accuracy and precision for the intended application. Recommendations were made with respect to the sample collection protocols and sample archival.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Community-Engaged Modeling of Urban Flood Adaptation Pathways

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Spangler, Ava [Pennsylvania State University] (ORC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Community-Informed Urban Flood Modeling for Impact Mitigation

Baltimore MD↗

DOE OSTI2025

A U.S. Scientific Community Vision for Sustained Earth Observations of Greenhouse Gases to Support Local to Global Action

Managing carbon stocks in the land, ocean, and atmosphere under changing climate requires a globally‐integrated view of carbon cycle processes at local and regional scales. The growing Earth Observation (EO) record is the backbone of this multi‐scale system, providing local information with discrete coverage from surface measurements and regional information at global scale from satellites. Carbon flux information, anchored by inverse estimates from spaceborne Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentrations, provides an important top‐down view of carbon emissions and sinks, but currently lacks global continuity at assessment and management scales (<100 km). Partial‐column data can help separate signals in the boundary layer from the overlying atmosphere, providing an opportunity to enhance surface sensitivity and bring flux resolution down from that of column‐integrated data (100–500 km). Based on a workshop held in September 2024, the carbon cycle community envisions a carbon observation system leveraging GHG partial columns in the lower and upper troposphere to weave together information across scales from surface and satellite EO data, and integration of top‐down/bottom‐up analyses to link process understanding to global assessment.

Parazoo, Nicholas C. [California Institute of Tech↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the Radioactive Material Released in the Harborview Research and Training Building and Some Implications for Emergency Response

On 2 May 2019, during the 137 Cs source recovery operation, a source capsule in a research irradiator containing approximately 77.1 TBq was breached. Based on a geometric reconstruction analysis of the damage to the capsule, approximately 46.3 GBq (0.04%) was impacted by the chop saw (grinder) inside a mobile hot cell on the loading dock at the University of Washington Harborview Research and Training (HRT) Building. A very small fraction of the material impacted, less than 1%, was released from the mobile hot cell and then to the rest of the HRT Building. The objectives of this project were to assess the accidental release of 137 CsCl and its implications related to emergency response methods and the ramifications of 137 CsCl transport. The phenomenology of this event was also compared with past alkali halide dispersal events. The vast number of measurements and samples collected by the remediation contractors, the Department of Energy’s Nuclear Emergency Support Team, and the small number of retrospective samples collected by the authors informed the analysis. The techniques included (1) autoradiography and electron microscopy of samples collected from the HRT Building and the irradiator, (2) 3D visualization of deposition on surfaces and within the ventilation system, and (3) a study of the damage to the source capsule to evaluate the Cs particle size and particle composition due to the grinding accident. Subsequently, the cesium contaminant transport through the numerous pathways in the building was reconstructed to assess the deposition on surfaces as a function of particle size. Furthermore, the implications for emergency response are relevant to data quality and management. A Data Quality Objective guides data collection methods so that they have appropriate accuracy and precision for the intended application. Recommendations were made with respect to the sample collection protocols and archiving of samples.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

DOE OSTI2026

BASS

SAND2026-17001O BASS implements Bayesian Adaptive Spline Surfaces in MATLAB and serves as a surrogate model for regression applications. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Tucker, J. Derek [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), L↗

DOE OSTI2025

Site A and Plot M 2024 Surveillance Report and 2025 Inspection Report

The results of the environmental surveillance program conducted at Site A/Plot M for calendar year (CY) 2024 are presented within this document. Site A/Plot M is in the Palos Area Preserves managed by the Forest Preserve District of Cook County. The surveillance program consists of the collection and analysis of surface and groundwater samples to determine the amount of hydrogen-3 and strontium-90 present in the environment within and surrounding the site of the former research facility (Site A) and waste burial site (Plot M).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Building partnerships for development of sustainable energy systems with atmospheric measurements

Atmospheric dynamics often play a critical role in the sustainability and reliability of diverse forms of energy production. This is especially true for the growing number of renewable energy deployments that harness aspects of the environment for power production. While the University of Memphis has a strong research background in energy systems, we have little experience working with the Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division (EESSD) and their associated User Facilities. Of particular interest to us is the Atmospheric Science Research and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility to address surface-boundary layer interactions and physical phenomena. One of the major challenges for understanding and developing energy systems and management platforms is accurate modeling/forecasting of atmospheric conditions across disparate spatial and temporal scales. These conditions are often required to understand the lowest levels of the atmospheric boundary layer, but are also important to understand higher atmospheric conditions where aerosols affect cloud development. The objective of this work was to develop partnerships with national laboratories for collaboration on environmental science and its intersection with sustainable energy systems, as well as to leverage the ARM user facility data repositories to enhance our research capabilities in energy systems and their inter-dependence on environmental systems for future engagement with EESSD. Specifically, we accomplished these objectives by (1) developing collaborations with Oakridge National Laboratory ARM Data Science and Integration Group which resulted in student internships, (2) employed ARM data to develope modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer optical turbulence, and (3) optimally-sized large-scale renewable energy systems and their associated energy storage systems with ARM repository data.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗