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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1992

Advanced statistical methods for improved data analysis of NASA astrophysics missions

The investigators under this grant studied ways to improve the statistical analysis of astronomical data. They looked at existing techniques, the development of new techniques, and the production and distribution of specialized software to the astronomical community. Abstracts of nine papers that were produced are included, as well as brief descriptions of four software packages. The articles that are abstracted discuss analytical and Monte Carlo comparisons of six different linear least squares fits, a (second) paper on linear regression in astronomy, two reviews of public domain software for the astronomer, subsample and half-sample methods for estimating sampling distributions, a nonparametric estimation of survival functions under dependent competing risks, censoring in astronomical data due to nondetections, an astronomy survival analysis computer package called ASURV, and improving the statistical methodology of astronomical data analysis.

Feigelson, Eric D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway Program Safety and Mission Assurance Integration - the Future of Safe Deep Space Human Exploration

As a foundational element of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Artemis Campaign, the Gateway is an incrementally built cislunar spacecraft that will serve as a platform for deep space human exploration, science, and technology demonstration. The Gateway will be a unifying catalyst for international partners around the world to establish sustained deep space scientific investigations, lunar surface access, and missions to Mars. As human exploration moves farther away from Earth, spacecraft designs must prioritize and optimize mass and volume allocations, while minimizing human and spacecraft risk. To accomplish this objective, the Gateway Program Safety and Mission Assurance functions develop, implement, and ensure compliance with requirements, in concert with the accurate characterization and transparent communication of residual hazard risks, for integrated safety, reliability and maintainability and quality assurance. Safety and Mission Assurance was a key contributor during Gateway program pre-formulation and formulation activities where safety and reliability analysis was embedded in the Gateway Systems Engineering and Integration team. During these early program stages, a preliminary Gateway Integrated Hazard Analysis and Preliminary Gateway Probabilistic Risk Assessment assisted in Gateway architectural and operational definition as part of a risk-informed design process. As the deep space architecture has matured, the integrated Safety and Mission Assurance analyses have matured, new safety review processes have been developed, and requirements have been refined to ensure compliance with integrated safety and mission assurance objectives. The Gateway Program is currently concluding the preliminary design review informed milestone, where the primary objectives included: - Ensured completeness and consistency of the preliminary design, including the meeting of all requirements within appropriate margins and acceptable risk posture. - Identification of any major issues moving forward to the Critical Design phase. At this milestone, Safety and Mission Assurance provided numerous products, including Gateway Top Risks and Risk Mitigation Plans, updated integrated hazard analyses, updated probabilistic risk assessment, Crew Survival Analysis Report, and updated Safety and Mission Assurance Requirements and Plans. These products provide a many-faceted perspective on the inherent risk and available mitigations involved in flying the current proposed vehicle design and anticipated stack configurations. In addition, Safety and Mission Assurance identified top technical, process and workforce concerns to be addressed as the program progresses toward the critical design phase. This paper will detail the evolution of the Gateway Program Safety and Mission Assurance integration functions, provide its current status and lessons learned for future human spaceflight programs. Throughout this paper the key tenets of the Gateway Program Safety and Mission Assurance will be discussed: - Application of a risk-informed approach to identify and mitigate areas of highest risk. - Leverage of valuable processes and lessons learned from earlier spaceflight programs. - Development of Safety and Mission Assurance products to inform design risk trades. - Utilization of common Safety and Mission Assurance practices to identify safety risks for multiple perspectives: top-down, bottom-up, and across lines of integration. - Approval of safety hazards at the appropriate level of authority, keeping most deliberation closest to design expertise and elevating risks of greatest concern for program-level consideration. - Championing of Safety and Mission Assurance processes and forums to foster a pervasive safety culture that is transparent, inclusive, and collaborative between all partners. These tenets have allowed the Gateway Safety and Mission Assurance function to play a key role in optimized vehicle design evolution, and early identification and mitigation of Gateway program and Artemis mission risk.

Helen Vaccaro↗
NASA NTRS2019

Demisability of GFRP and CFRP Components of Reentering Orbital Debris: Phase I Test Results

Observations of surviving reentry debris on the ground and research performed by Hyperschall Technologie Göttingen (HTG) [1] indicated that significantly more glass fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP) and carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) components survive reentry than current models predict. NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office conducted a series of tests to evaluate the accuracy of material demise models for reentering orbital debris used in NASA’s Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) and Debris Assessment Software (DAS). Testing is planned in a multi-phase series to allow for quick quantification of results as well as refinement of methods resulting from lessons learned during early phases. The Phase 1 tests discussed here validated ORSAT models for homogeneous metals, provided an efficient quantification of composite material demisability properties like mass loss rate and overall time to demise, and identified potential failure modes, which are currently not well understood. Phase 2 tests will be used to further understand mass loss rates and modes of both thermal and mechanical failure in composite materials. The authors exposed 95 samples of aluminum, CFRP, Kevlar fiber-reinforced polymer, GFRP, and sheets of G10 fiberglass to conditions approximating the reentry environment using an inductively coupled plasma (ICP) torch facility. The cylindrical CFRP samples were exposed to the atmospheric pressure plasma, at both the end and the midpoint, to investigate the difference in demisability between parts with exposed edges, like panels, and parts with no edges, such as carbonoverwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs). In a non-oxidative environment, no composite materials demised within the 5-minute test time. In the oxidative, elevated heat flux environment, CFRP samples demised between 210 s and 270 s. For the first 100 s of insertion time, most of the mass loss was due to pyrolysis of resin, creating an approximately bi-linear mass-loss rate curve with time. In a non-oxidative environment, carbon filaments were observed to unravel from some of the CFRP end-burned samples; however, this effect did not seem to affect the overall time to demise for the samples significantly. These results indicate that both GFRP and CFRP components survive reentry with significantly more remaining mass than current models predict.

Greene, Benton R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Novel genetic risk factors influence progression of islet autoimmunity to type 1 diabetes

Type 1 diabetes arises from the autoimmune destruction of insulin-producing beta-cells of the pancreas, resulting in dependence on exogenously administered insulin to maintain glucose homeostasis. In this study, our aim was to identify genetic risk factors that contribute to progression from islet autoimmunity to clinical type 1 diabetes. We analyzed 6.8 million variants derived from whole genome sequencing of 160 islet autoantibody positive subjects, including 87 who had progressed to type 1 diabetes. The Cox proportional-hazard model for survival analysis was used to identify genetic variants associated with progression. We identified one novel region, 20p12.1 (TASP1; genome-wide P < 5 × 10 –8 ) and three regions, 1q21.3 (MRPS21–PRPF3), 2p25.2 (NRIR), 3q22.1 (COL6A6), with suggestive evidence of association (P < 8.5 × 10 –8 ) with progression from islet autoimmunity to type 1 diabetes. Once islet autoimmunity is initiated, functional mapping identified two critical pathways, response to viral infections and interferon signaling, as contributing to disease progression. These results provide evidence that genetic pathways involved in progression from islet autoimmunity differ from those pathways identified once disease has been established. These results support the need for further investigation of genetic risk factors that modulate initiation and progression of subclinical disease to inform efforts in development of novel strategies for prediction and intervention of type 1 diabetes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resonant inelastic X-ray scattering using a miniature dispersive Rowland refocusing spectrometer

X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) beamlines worldwide are steadily increasing their emphasis on full photon-in/photon-out spectroscopies, such as resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (RIXS), resonant X-ray emission spectroscopy (RXES) and high energy resolution fluorescence detection XAS (HERFD-XAS). In such cases, each beamline must match the choice of emission spectrometer to the scientific mission of its users. Previous work has recently reported a miniature tender X-ray spectrometer using a dispersive Rowland refocusing (DRR) geometry that functions with high energy resolution even with a large X-ray spot size on the sample. This instrument has been used in the laboratory in multiple studies of non-resonant X-ray emission spectroscopy using a conventional X-ray tube, though only for preliminary measurements at a low-intensity microfocus synchrotron beamline. This paper reports an extensive study of the performance of a miniature DRR spectrometer at an unfocused wiggler beamline, where the incident monochromatic flux allows for resonant studies which are impossible in the laboratory. Here, the results support the broader use of the present design and also suggest that the DRR method with an unfocused beam could have important applications for materials with low radiation damage thresholds and that would not survive analysis on focused beamlines.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing Sample Size While Improving Equity in Vaccine Clinical Trials: A Machine Learning-Based Recruitment Methodology with Application to Improving Trials of Hepatitis C Virus Vaccines in People Who Inject Drugs

Despite the availability of direct-acting antivirals that cure individuals infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV), developing a vaccine is critically needed in achieving HCV elimination. HCV vaccine trials have been performed in populations with high incidence of new HCV infection such as people who inject drugs (PWID). Developing strategies of optimal recruitment of PWID for HCV vaccine trials could reduce sample size, follow-up costs and disparities in enrollment. We investigate trial recruitment informed by machine learning and evaluate a strategy for HCV vaccine trials termed PREDICTEE—Predictive Recruitment and Enrichment method balancing Demographics and Incidence for Clinical Trial Equity and Efficiency. PREDICTEE utilizes a survival analysis model applied to trial candidates, considering their demographic and injection characteristics to predict the candidate’s probability of HCV infection during the trial. The decision to recruit considers both the candidate’s predicted incidence and demographic characteristics such as age, sex, and race. We evaluated PREDICTEE using in silico methods, in which we first generated a synthetic candidate pool and their respective HCV infection events using HepCEP, a validated agent-based simulation model of HCV transmission among PWID in metropolitan Chicago. We then compared PREDICTEE to conventional recruitment of high-risk PWID who share drugs or injection equipment in terms of sample size and recruitment equity, with the latter measured by participation-to-prevalence ratio (PPR) across age, sex, and race. Comparing conventional recruitment to PREDICTEE found a reduction in sample size from 802 (95%: 642–1010) to 278 (95%: 264–294) with PREDICTEE, while also reducing screening requirements by 30%. Simultaneously, PPR increased from 0.475 (95%: 0.356–0.568) to 0.754 (95%: 0.685–0.834). Even when targeting a dissimilar maximally balanced population in which achieving recruitment equity would be more difficult, PREDICTEE is able to reduce sample size from 802 (95%: 642–1010) to 304 (95%: 288–322) while improving PPR to 0.807 (95%: 0.792–0.821). PREDICTEE presents a promising strategy for HCV clinical trial recruitment, achieving sample size reduction while improving recruitment equity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probing the Coherence of Metal Absorbers toward Background Quasar Pairs

Abstract We investigate the spatial coherence of metal absorption lines in the circumgalactic medium using 4115 quasar pairs from Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR16. We identify 184 Mg ii (15 with dual detections) and 50 C iv (11 with dual detections) absorber pairs. The fraction of pairs with fractional equivalent width difference δW r ≤ 0.5 declines with projected separation: for Mg ii , it drops from ∼52% at 0–25 kpc to ∼7% at 100–200 kpc, while for C iv , it decreases from ∼100% to ∼21% over 0–200 kpc. In every separation bin, C iv absorbers with δW r ≤ 0.5 maintain a higher fraction than Mg ii absorbers. Similar results are obtained when the nondetections are treated as 2 σ W r upper limits in a survival analysis. The transverse autocorrelation function shows strong Mg ii clustering within 0–25 kpc, whereas the C iv excess remains relatively flat out to ∼100 kpc. These findings suggest that high-ionization C iv gas retains coherence over larger transverse scales than low-ionization Mg ii gas, in agreement with previous lensed quasar and high-resolution studies.

Li, Jing [Guangxi University] (ORCID:0009000148751↗
NASA NTRS1986

Continuum radiation from active galactic nuclei: A statistical study

The physics of the continuum spectrum of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) was examined using a large data set and rigorous statistical methods. A data base was constructed for 469 objects which include radio selected quasars, optically selected quasars, X-ray selected AGNs, BL Lac objects, and optically unidentified compact radio sources. Each object has measurements of its radio, optical, X-ray core continuum luminosity, though many of them are upper limits. Since many radio sources have extended components, the core component were carefully selected out from the total radio luminosity. With survival analysis statistical methods, which can treat upper limits correctly, these data can yield better statistical results than those previously obtained. A variety of statistical tests are performed, such as the comparison of the luminosity functions in different subsamples, and linear regressions of luminosities in different bands. Interpretation of the results leads to the following tentative conclusions: the main emission mechanism of optically selected quasars and X-ray selected AGNs is thermal, while that of BL Lac objects is synchrotron; radio selected quasars may have two different emission mechanisms in the X-ray band; BL Lac objects appear to be special cases of the radio selected quasars; some compact radio sources show the possibility of synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) in the optical band; and the spectral index between the optical and the X-ray bands depends on the optical luminosity.

Isobe, T.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Two component model for X-ray emission of radio selected QSO's

Using a large database of radio, optical, and x ray luminosities of AGNs with survival analysis, it was found that the x ray emission of the radio selected quasars has two components. One is related to the optical luminosity and the other is related to the radio luminosity.

Isobe, T.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Einstein Observatory survey of X-ray emission from solar-type stars - The late F and G dwarf stars

Results of a volume-limited X-ray survey of stars of luminosity classes IV and V in the spectral range F7-G9 observed with the Einstein Observatory are presented. Using survival analysis techniques, the stellar X-ray luminosity function in the 0.15-4.0 keV energy band for both single and multiple sources. It is shown that the difference in X-ray luminosity between these two classes of sources is consistent with the superposition of individual components in multiple-component systems, whose X-ray properties are similar to those of the single-component sources. The X-ray emission of the stars in our sample is well correlated with their chromospheric CA II H-K line emission and with their projected equatorial rotational velocity. Comparison of the X-ray luminosity function constructed for the sample of the dG stars of the local population with the corresponding functions derived elsewhere for the Hyades, the Pleiades, and the Orion Ic open cluster confirms that the level of X-ray emission decreases with stellar age.

Maggio, A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Evidence of an infrared luminosity indicator for galaxies

To elucidate the nature of infrared-luminous galaxies discovered with the IRAS satellite, the optical and infrared luminosities of 1161 Markarian galaxies and 2146 'normal' galaxies from the CfA redshift survey are compared. Survival analysis statistical methods that take upper limits fully into account are used. It is found that L(IR)/L(B) is statistically correlated with L(60) in both samples, though they differ in the distribution at low luminosities. The derived correlation shows that L(IR)/L(B) provides an indicator for L(60). Since galaxies selected in unbiased IRAS surveys will have higher L(IR)/L(B) than optically selected galaxies, they are therefore also selected for high L(60).

Feigelson, Eric D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Far-infrared luminosity functions of normal galaxies

A volume-limited sample is constructed from the Zwicky catalog and IRAS data base to examine the FIR luminosity functions of normal galaxies, and to investigate possible relationships between FIR emission and galaxy morphology. Quantitative and unbiased treatment is provided by 'survival analysis' statistical methods. It is found that the FIR distributions of normal galaxies are better fit by lognormal than Schechter functions. The total FIR emissivity (8 to 115 microns) of normal galaxies is approximately equal to half their emission in the B plus V optical bands. Normal galaxy FIR emission is uncorrelated with the basic S0-Sm Hubble sequence of spiral galaxy morphology, but appears to be affected by de Vaucouleurs' (1959) revised morphological classifications based on inner rings and S-shaped arms. Spirals with bars and inner rings are systematically fainter than unbarred spirals. It is suggested that bars and rings reduce the amount or spatially confine the dust in spiral disks, resulting in lower efficiency conversion of optical and UV photons into the IR.

Isobe, Takashi↗
NASA NTRS1993

Risk of decompression sickness in the presence of circulating microbubbles

In this study, we examined the association between microbubbles formed in the circulation from a free gas phase and symptoms of altitude decompression sickness (DCS). In a subgroup of 59 males of mean (S.D) age 31.2 (5.8) years who developed microbubbles during exposure to 26.59 kPa (4.3 psi) under simulated extravehicular activities (EVA), symptoms of DCS occurred in 24 (41 percent) individuals. Spencer grade 1 microbubbles occurred in 4 (7 percent), grade 2 in 9 (15 percent), grade 3 in 15 (25 percent), and grade 4 in 31 (53 percent) of subjects. Survival analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression showed that individuals with less than grade 3 CMB showed 2.46 times (95 percent confidence interval = 1.26 to 5.34) higher risk of symptoms. This information is crucial for defining the risk of DCS for inflight Doppler monitoring under space EVA. Altitude decompression sickness (DCS) occurs when there is acute reduction in ambient pressure. The symptoms of DCS are due to the formation of a free gas phase (in the form of gas microbubbles) in tissues during decompression. Musculo-skeletal pain of bends is the commonest form of DCS in altitude exposures. In the space flight environment, there is a risk of DCS when astronauts decompress from the normobaric shuttle pressure into the hypobaric space suit pressure (currently about 29.65 kPa (4.3 psi) for extra-vehicular activities (EVA). This risk is counterbalanced by a judicious combination of prior denitrogenation and staged decompression. Studies of DCS are limited by the duration of the test at reduced pressure. Since only a proportion of subjects tested develop symptoms, the information on DCS is generally incomplete or 'censored'. Many studies employ Doppler ultrasound monitoring of the precordial area for detecting circulating microbubbles (CMB). Although the association between CMB and bends pain is not causal, CMB are frequently monitored during decompression. In this paper, we examine the association between CMB and symptoms of DCS under simulated EVA profiles.

Kumar, K. Vasantha↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Log Logistic Survival Model Applied to Hypobaric Decompression Sickness

Decompression sickness (DCS) is a complex, multivariable problem. A mathematical description or model of the likelihood of DCS requires a large amount of quality research data, ideas on how to define a decompression dose using physical and physiological variables, and an appropriate analytical approach. It also requires a high-performance computer with specialized software. I have used published DCS data to develop my decompression doses, which are variants of equilibrium expressions for evolved gas plus other explanatory variables. My analytical approach is survival analysis, where the time of DCS occurrence is modeled. My conclusions can be applied to simple hypobaric decompressions - ascents lasting from 5 to 30 minutes - and, after minutes to hours, to denitrogenation (prebreathing). They are also applicable to long or short exposures, and can be used whether the sufferer of DCS is at rest or exercising at altitude. Ultimately I would like my models to be applied to astronauts to reduce the risk of DCS during spacewalks, as well as to future spaceflight crews on the Moon and Mars.

Conkin, Johnny↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA)

The process by which raw astronomical data acquisition is transformed into scientifically meaningful results and interpretation typically involves many statistical steps. Traditional astronomy limits itself to a narrow range of old and familiar statistical methods: means and standard deviations; least-squares methods like chi(sup 2) minimization; and simple nonparametric procedures such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. These tools are often inadequate for the complex problems and datasets under investigations, and recent years have witnessed an increased usage of maximum-likelihood, survival analysis, multivariate analysis, wavelet and advanced time-series methods. The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA) assisted astronomers with the use of sophisticated tools, and to match these tools with specific problems. The SCCA operated with two professors of statistics and a professor of astronomy working together. Questions were received by e-mail, and were discussed in detail with the questioner. Summaries of those questions and answers leading to new approaches were posted on the Web (www.state.psu.edu/ mga/SCCA). In addition to serving individual astronomers, the SCCA established a Web site for general use that provides hypertext links to selected on-line public-domain statistical software and services. The StatCodes site (www.astro.psu.edu/statcodes) provides over 200 links in the areas of: Bayesian statistics; censored and truncated data; correlation and regression, density estimation and smoothing, general statistics packages and information; image analysis; interactive Web tools; multivariate analysis; multivariate clustering and classification; nonparametric analysis; software written by astronomers; spatial statistics; statistical distributions; time series analysis; and visualization tools. StatCodes has received a remarkable high and constant hit rate of 250 hits/week (over 10,000/year) since its inception in mid-1997. It is of interest to scientists both within and outside of astronomy. The most popular sections are multivariate techniques, image analysis, and time series analysis. Hundreds of copies of the ASURV, SLOPES and CENS-TAU codes developed by SCCA scientists were also downloaded from the StatCodes site. In addition to formal SCCA duties, SCCA scientists continued a variety of related activities in astrostatistics, including refereeing of statistically oriented papers submitted to the Astrophysical Journal, talks in meetings including Feigelson's talk to science journalists entitled "The reemergence of astrostatistics" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting, and published papers of astrostatistical content.

Akritas, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2004

Historical Study of Radiation Exposures and the Incidence of Cataracts in Astronauts

For over 35 years, astronauts in low Earth orbit or on missions to the moon have been exposed to space radiation comprised of high-energy protons, heavy ions, and secondary neutrons. We reviewed the radiation exposures received by astronauts in space and on Earth, and presented results from the first epidemiological study of cataract incidence in the astronauts. Our data suggested an increased risk for cataracts from space radiation exposures. Using parametric survival analysis and the maximum likelihood method, we estimated the dose-response and age distribution for cataract incidence in astronauts by space radiation. Considering the high-LET dose contributions on specific space missions as well as data from animal studies with neutrons and heavy ions, suggested a linear response with no dose-threshold for cataracts. However, there are unanswered questions related to the importance and the definition of clinically significant cataracts commonly used in radiation protection, especially in light of epidemiological data suggesting that the probability that sub-clinical cataracts will progress is highly dependent on the age at which cataracts appear. We briefly describe a new study that will address the measurement of cataract progression-rates in astronauts and a ground-based comparison group.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Historical Study of Radiation Exposures and the Incidence of Cataracts in Astronauts

For over 35 years, astronauts in low Earth orbit or on missions to the moon have been exposed to space radiation comprised of high-energy protons, heavy ions, and secondary neutrons. We reviewed the radiation exposures received by astronauts in space and on Earth, and presented results from the first epidemiological study of cataract incidence in the astronauts. Our data suggested an increased risk for cataracts from space radiation exposures*. Using parametric survival analysis and the maximum likelihood method, we estimated the dose-response and age distribution for cataract incidence in astronauts by space radiation. Considering the high-LET dose contributions on specific space missions as well as data from animal studies with neutrons and heavy ions, suggested a linear response with no dose-threshold for cataracts. However, there are unanswered questions related to the importance and the definition of "clinically significant" cataracts commonly used in radiation protection, especially in light of epidemiological data suggesting that the probability that "sub-clinical" cataracts will progress is highly dependent on the age at which cataracts appear. We briefly describe a new study that will address the measurement of cataract progression-rates in astronauts and a ground-based comparison group.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 13, No. 3

Inside - Congressional Hearing Held on Orbital Debris and Space Traffic - United Nations' COPUOS Receives Update on Iridium-Cosmos Collision - MMOD Inspection of the HST WFPC2 Radiator - Reentry Survivability Analysis of GPM Spacecraft - Update on Recent Major Breakup Fragments - Upcoming Meetings - Space Missions and Orbital Box Score

J.-C. Liou↗