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NASA NTRS2003

Long-Term Climatic Variations in the Almati Oblast in Central Asian Kazakhstan: Correlations between National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis II Results and Oblast Meteorological Station Data from 1949 to the Present

As part of a larger analysis of country systems described elsewhere, named a Crop Country Inventory, CCI, large variations in annual crop yield for selected climate sensitive agricultural regions or sub-regions within a country have been studied over extended periods in decades. These climate sensitive regions, principally responsible for large annual variations in an entire country s crop production, generally are characterized by distinctive patterns of atmospheric circulation and synoptic processes that result in large seasonal fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture as well as other climate properties. The immediate region of interest is drought prone Kazakhstan in Central Asia, part of the Former Soviet Union, FSU. As a partial validation test in a dry southern region of Kazakhstan, the Almati Oblast was chosen. The Almati Oblast, a sub-region of Kazakhstan located in its southeast corner, is one of 14 oblasts within the Republic of Kazahstan. The climate data set used to characterize this region was taken from the results of the current maturely developed Global Climate Model, GCM. In this paper, the GCM results have been compared to the meteorological station data at the station locations, over various periods. If the empirical correlation of the data sets from both the GCM and station data is sufficiently significant, this would validate the use of the superior GCM profile mapping and integration for the climatic characterization of a sub-region. Precipitation values interpolated from NCEP Reanalysis II data, a global climate database spanning over 5 decades since 1949, have been statistically correlated with monthly-averaged station data from 1949 through 1993, and with daily station data from April through August, 1990 for the Almati Oblast in Kazakhstan. The resultant correlation is significant, which implies that the methodology may be extended to different regions globally for Crop Country Inventory studies.

Welker, Jean E.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Cold climate mapping using satellite high resolution thermal imagery

In an attempt to improve cold climate mapping and freeze forecasting techniques, thermal imagery from the NOAA-2 and -3 satellites and the Synchronous Meteorological Satellite (SMS) were obtained and analyzed. Enhanced image transparencies showed detailed temperature patterns over the peninsula of Florida. The analysis was superior to hand-drawn isotherms drawn from the 300 to 500 thermograph stations presently in use. Satellite data on several cold nights with similar synoptic conditions showed that similar cold patterns existed. Thus, cold climate mapping is possible.

Bartholic, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Analysis, Repair, and Management of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer Database

In the ensuing period we were able to demonstrate that the origin of these filamentous patterns resulted from the action of synoptic-scale vortical velocity field on the global-scale background gradient of ozone concentration in the meridional direction. Hyperbolic flow patterns between long-lived atmospheric vortices bring together air parcels from different latitudes, thus creating large gradients along the separatrices leaving the hyperbolic (stagnation) point. This result is further confirmed by the KL analysis of the ozone field in the equatorial region, where the background concentration gradient vanishes. The spectral slope in this region has been found to lie close to -1, in agreement with Batchelor's prediction. Another outcome of this result is that it at least provides indirect evidence about the kinetic energy spectrum of the atmospheric turbulence in the range of scales approximately 200 to 2000 km. Namely, Batchelor's analysis is based on the assumption that the velocity field is large-scale, that is the kinetic energy spectrum decays as O(k(sup -3)) or steeper. Since the scalar spectrum is confirmed, this also supports this form of the kinetic energy spectrum. The study of equatorial regions of TOMS data revealed the efficiency of the KL method is in detecting and separating a wave-like measurement artifact inherently present in the dataset due to the non-perfect correction for cross-track bias. Just two to three eigenfunctions represent the error, which makes it possible to enhance the data by reconstituting it from the data by eliminating the subspace of artifactual eigenfunctions. This represents a highly efficient means for achieving an improved rendering of the data. This has been implemented on the database. A wide range of techniques and algorithms have been developed for the repair and extension of the TOMS database.

Sirovich, Lawrence↗
NASA NTRS2003

Structure and Variability of Water Vapor in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

An algorithm has been developed to synoptically-map asynoptic measurements, while rejecting small-scale under-sampled variance that is intrinsic to satellite measurements of water vapor, cloud, and other convective properties. The algorithm has been validated against high-resolution Global Cloud Imagery (GCI) , constructed from 6 satellites simultaneously viewing the global convective pattern. It has been applied to synoptically map Upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) from UARS/MLS. Mapped distributions of UTH have been used, jointly with the GCI, to study how the upper troposphere is humidified. The time-mean distribution of UTH is spatially correlated to the time-mean distribution of cold cloud fraction eta(sub c) (T less than 230 K). Regions of large UTH coincide with regions of large eta(sub c), which mark deep convection. They also coincide with regions of reduced vertical stability, in which the vertical gradient of Theta is weakened by convective mixing. Coldest cloud cover is attended convective overshoots above the local tropopause, which is simultaneously coldest and highest. Together, these features reflect the upper-troposphere being ventilated by convection, which mixes in air from lower levels.

Salby, Murry L.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Analysis of atmosphere-sea ice interactions in the Arctic basin using ESMR microwave data

Data from the Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) on Nimbus-5 are used to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of change in microwave brightness signatures of Arctic sea ice during a full annual cycle (1973/74). Interactions of ice conditions with the atmosphere are examined using grid point data for surface air temperature and atmospheric pressure. Principal components analysis is used to examine the major elements present in the microwave and atmospheric data. Component scores from these analyses are then used in a canonical correlation analysis to determine interassociations present between the ice and atmosphere in the Beaufort Sea and the European sectors on a synoptic time scale. The synoptic weather conditions associated with the pattern of snow melt on the ice in spring 1974 are described, and a clarification of possible alternative interpretations of features identified as polynyi occurring at 80-85 deg N during the late summer 1974 is presented.

Crane, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with Short-Term Extratropical Climate Fluctuations

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2x79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg. x 2.5 deg. lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg. x l deg. grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some preliminary results are shown and compared to previous work with numerical weather prediction models.

Huffman, George J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Global Precipitation Perspective on Persistent Extratropical Flow Anomalies

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2 x 79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg x 1 deg grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some preliminary results are shown and compared to previous work with numerical weather prediction models.

Huffman, George J.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Koch, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Application of LANDSAT to the surveillance and control of lake eutrophication in the Great Lakes Basin

The author has identified the following significant results. Preliminary results in Saginaw Bay show that processed LANDSAT data provides a synoptic view of turbidity and circulation patterns that no degree of ground monitoring can provide. Processed imagery was produced to show nine discrete categories of turbidity, as indicated by nine Secchi depths between 0.3 and 3.3 meters. Analysis of lakes near Madison, Wisconsin show that inland lake water can be categorized by LANDSAT as clear, tannin, algal, and red clay. LANDSAT's capability to inventory watershed land use was throughly demonstrated in the Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana regional planning area. Computer tabulations providing area covered by each of 16 land use categories were rapidly and economically produced for each of the 225 watersheds and nine counties.

Rogers, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Tropical synoptic interpretation of inter-channel correlations from Tiros N

Synoptic variability contained in a set of Tiros N channel brightness temperatures was analyzed for a nine-day period during January 1979, between the dateline and 90 deg W and between 30 deg N and 20 deg S. In the procedure, the spatial coherence of each channel is first described in terms of functions of interchannel differences and geographic and synoptic variations. Second, horizontal and vertical pattern of individual channels are examined through empirical orthogonal functional decomposition. Finally, response surface regression models are developed to predict missing Tiros N channels from available Tiros N and NOAA-5 data. The percentage variance was predicted for each channel from the Tiros N microwave and stratospheric channels. Generally speaking, about 80 percent of the variance in each channel can be predicted for the Tiros model, excepting the two tropospheric moisture channels, where prediction was less successful.

Mcguirk, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Large-scale transport of a CO-enhanced air mass from Europe to the Middle East

On November 14, 1981, the shuttle-borne Measurement of Air Pollution from Satellites (MAPS) experiment observed a carbon monoxide (CO) enhanced air mass in the middle troposphere over the Middle East. The primary source of this polluted air was estimated by constructing adiabatic isentropic trajectories backwards from the MAPS measurement location over a 36 h period. The isentropic diagnostics indicate that CO-enhanced air was transported southeastward over the Mediterranean from an organized synoptic-scale weather regime, albeit of moderate intensity, influencing central Europe on November 12. Examination of the evolving synoptic scale vertical velocity and precipitation patterns during this period, in conjuction with Meteosat visible, infrared, and water vapor imagery, suggests that the presence of this disturbed weather system over Europe may have created upward transport of CO-enhanced air between the boundary-layer and midtropospheric levels, and subsequent entrainment in the large-scale northwesterly jet stream flow over Europe and the Mediterranean.

Connors, V. S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

An interactive system for analysis of global cloud imagery

Synoptic images of the global cloud pattern composited from six contemporaneous satellites provide an unprecedented view of the global cloud field. Having horizontal resolution of about 0.5 deg and temporal resolution of 3 h, the global cloud imagery (GCI) resolves most of the variability of organized convection, including several harmonics of the diurnal cycle. Although the GCI has these attractive features, the dense and 3D nature of that data make it a formidable volume of information to treat in a practical and efficient manner. An interactive image-analysis system (IAS) has been developed to investigate the space-time variability of global cloud behavior. In the IAS, data, hardware, and software are integrated into a single system providing a variety of space-time covariance analyses in a menu-driven format. Owing to its customized architecture and certain homogeneous properties of the GCI, the IAS calculates such quantities effectively. Many covariance statistics are derived from 3D data with interactive speed, allowing the user to interrogate the archive iteratively in a single session. The 3D nature of those analyses and the speed with which they are performed distinguish the IAS from conventional image processing of 2D data.

Woodberry, Karen↗
NASA NTRS1980

A preliminary assessment of the accuracy of selected meteorological parameters determined from Nimbus 6 satellite profile data

Published rms errors in rawinsonde data and discrepancies between satellite and rawinsonde profile data for temperature, dewpoint temperature, mixing ratio, and wind speed. Satellite rms errors were found to be 2 to 3 times as large as those for rawinsonde data. Gradients of the preceding parameters were computed for both rawinsonde and satellite data and compared with means and near extreme values computed from the AVE 2 and AVE 4 experiments. In all cases, it was found that satellite data can be used to determine with relatively good accuracy the near extreme gradients but not those whose value does not exceed the average. Synoptic charts were prepared to show that patterns of temperature could be determined with relatively good accuracy, while those of dew point were not as good as those for temperature. Winds represented by cloud motion vectors (satellite winds) were compared with rawinsonde winds, and it was found that large gaps exist in satellite values for a given pressure level and that errors in the satellite determined concluded that satellite profile data are very useful in synoptic analysis, particularly in data sparse regions as well as regions where near extreme gradients exist in the measured parameters.

Scoggins, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary scale wave interactions: Observational study

A blocking pattern which formed over eastern North America following the landfall of Hurricane Juan during November 1985 was investigated. It is hypothesize that latent heat released in the Hurricane's rainfall was either directly or indirectly responsible for the large observed 500 mb height rises over eastern Canada during the formation of this block. This idea is evaluated with a diagnostic model for the height tendency field which includes latent heat release as a forcing function. The total column heating is calculated using satellite-derived precipitation estimates. These estimates are qualitatively congruent with observations, but overestimate light rainfall and underestimate heavy rainfall. The calculations reveal that the direct contribution of the heating to the 500 mb height tendency field is small relative to the quasigeostrophic forcing. However, maxima in heating coincide with regions where anticyclonic potential vorticity is generated. Once such region is just upstream of the location of large 500 mb height rises in the incipient block. An indirect role is proposed for the heating in this case. Specifically, anticyclonic potential vorticity is generated near the heating maxima; this vorticity is then advected downstream, forcing the 500 mb heights to rise and the block to develop.

Colucci, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS1992

Meteorological overview of the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A) flight series

A meteorological overview of the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A) flight series is presented. Synoptic analyses of mid-tropospheric circulation patterns are combined with isentropic back trajectory calculations to describe the long-range (400-3000 km) atmospheric transport mechanisms and pathways of air masses to the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions of North America during July and August 1988. Siberia and the northern Pacific Ocean were found to be the two most likely source areas for 3-day transport to the study areas in Alaska. Transport to the Barrow region was frequently influenced by polar vortices and associated short-wave troughs over the Arctic Ocean, while the Bethel area was most often affected by lows migrating across the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska, as well as ridges of high pressure which built into interior Alaska. July 1988 was warmer and dryer than normal over much of Alaska. As a result, the 1988 Alaska fire season was one of the most active of the past decade. Airborne lidar measurements verified the presence of biomass burning plumes on many flights, often trapped in thin subsidence layer temperature inversions. Several cases of stratosphere/troposphere exchange were noted, based upon potential vorticity analyses and aircraft lidar data, especially in the Barrow region and during transit flights to and from Alaska.

Shipham, Mark C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Weekly Cycle of Lightning: Evidence of Storm Invigoration by Pollution

We have examined summertime 1998 2009 U.S. lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) to look for weekly cycles in lightning activity. As was found by Bell et al. (2008) for rain over the southeast U.S., there is a significant weekly cycle in afternoon lightning activity that peaks in the middle of the week there. The weekly cycle appears to be reduced over population centers. Lightning activity peaks on weekends over waters near the SE U.S. The statistical significance of weekly cycles over the western half of the country is generally small. We found no evidence of a weekly cycle of synoptic-scale forcing that might explain these patterns. The lightning behavior is entirely consistent with the explanation suggested by Bell et al. (2008) for the cycles in rainfall and other atmospheric data from the SE U.S., that aerosols can cause storms to intensify in humid, convectively unstable environments.

Bell, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The effect of water temperature and synoptic winds on the development of surface flows over narrow, elongated water bodies

Simulations of the thermally induced breeze involved with a relatively narrow, elongated water body is presented in conjunction with evaluations of sensible heat fluxes in a stable marine atmospheric surface layer. The effect of the water surface temperature and of the large-scale synoptic winds on the development of surface flows over the water is examined. As implied by the sensible heat flux patterns, the simulation results reveal the following trends: (1) when the synoptic flow is absent or light, the induced surface breeze is not affected noticeably by a reduction of the water surface temperature; and (2) for stronger synoptic flow, the resultant surface flow may be significantly affected by the water surface temperature.

Segal, M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Tropical Pacific moisture variability

The objectives are to describe synoptic scale variability of moisture over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the systems leading to this variability; implement satellite analysis procedures in support of this effort, and to incorporate additional satellite information into operational analysis forecast systems at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Composite satellite radiance patterns describe features detectable well before the development of synoptic scale tropical plumes. These typical features were extracted from historical files of Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) radiance observations for a pair of tropical plumes which developed during January 1989. Signals were inserted into the NMC operational medium range forecast model and a suite of model integrations were conducted. Many of the 48 h model errors of the historical forecasts were eliminated by the inclusion of more complete satellite observations. Three studies in satellite radiance analysis progressed. An analysis which blended TOVS moisture channels, OLR observations and European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analysis to generate fields of total precipitable water comparable to those estimated from Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) mu-wave observations. This study demonstrated that a 10 y climatology of precipitable water over the oceans is feasible, using available infrared observations (OLR and TOVS) and model analysis (ECMWF, NMC or similar quality). The estimates are sensitive to model quality and the estimating model must be updated with operational model changes. Coe developed a set of tropical plume and ITCZ composites from TOVS observations, and from NMC and ECMWF analyses which had been passed through a radiative transfer model to simulate TOVS radiances. The composites have been completed as well as many statistical diagnostics of individual TOVS channels. Analysis of the computations is commencing. Chung has initiated a study of the differences between TOVS observed vapor structure during El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (1983) and non-ENSO (1984) years. Preliminary diagnosis demonstrates gross moisture changes between warm and cold sea surface temperature episodes.

Mcguirk, James P.↗