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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Combined Use of Airborne Lidar and DBInSAR Data to Estimate LAI in Temperate Mixed Forests

The objective of this study was to determine whether leaf area index (LAI) in temperate mixed forests is best estimated using multiple-return airborne laser scanning (lidar) data or dual-band, single-pass interferometric synthetic aperture radar data (from GeoSAR) alone, or both in combination. In situ measurements of LAI were made using the LiCor LAI-2000 Plant Canopy Analyzer on 61 plots (21 hardwood, 36 pine, 4 mixed pine hardwood; stand age ranging from 12-164 years; mean height ranging from 0.4 to 41.2 m) in the Appomattox-Buckingham State Forest, Virginia, USA. Lidar distributional metrics were calculated for all returns and for ten one meter deep crown density slices (a new metric), five above and five below the mode of the vegetation returns for each plot. GeoSAR metrics were calculated from the X-band backscatter coefficients (four looks) as well as both X- and P-band interferometric heights and magnitudes for each plot. Lidar metrics alone explained 69% of the variability in LAI, while GeoSAR metrics alone explained 52%. However, combining the lidar and GeoSAR metrics increased the R2 to 0.77 with a CV-RMSE of 0.42. This study indicates the clear potential for X-band backscatter and interferometric height (both now available from spaceborne sensors), when combined with small-footprint lidar data, to improve LAI estimation in temperate mixed forests.

leaf area index↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics of Fungal and Bacterial Biomass Carbon in Natural Ecosystems: Site-level Applications of the CLM-Microbe Model

Explicitly representing microbial processes has been recognized as a key improvement to Earth system models for the realistic projections of soil carbon (C) and climate dynamics. The CLM-Microbe model builds upon the CLM4.5 and explicitly represents two major soil microbial groups, fungi and bacteria. Based on the compiled time-series data of fungal (FBC) and bacterial (BBC) biomass C from nine biomes, we parameterized and validated the CLM-Microbe model, and further conducted sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis for simulating C cycling. The model performance was evaluated with mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) for relative change in FBC and BBC. The CLM-Microbe model is able to reasonably capture the seasonal dynamics of FBC and BBC across biomes, particularly for tropical/subtropical forest, temperate broadleaf forest, and grassland, with MAE < 0.49 for FBC and <0.36 for BBC and RMSE <0.52 FBC and <0.39 for BBC, while R2 values are relatively smaller in some biomes (e.g., shrub) due to small sample sizes. We found good consistencies between simulated and observed FBC (R 2 =0.70, P<0.001) and BBC (R 2 =0.26, P<0.05) on average across biomes, but the model is not able to fully capture the large variation in observed FBC and BBC. Sensitivity analysis shows the most critical parameters are turnover rate, carbon-to-nitrogen ratio of fungi and bacteria, and microbial assimilation efficiency. This study confirms that the explicit representation of soil microbial mechanisms enhances model performance in simulating C variables such as heterotrophic respiration and soil organic C density. The further application of the CLM-Microbe model would deepen our understanding of microbial contributions to the global C cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Remote sensing of the leaf area index of temperate coniferous forests

To estimate the one-sided leaf area index (LAI) of temperate coniferous forests using data acquired from the Daedalus Airborne Thematic Mapper, an empirical model is developed. The study area follows an environmental gradient across west-central Oregon, where leaf development varies in response to temperature and moisture. The relationship between the ratio of thematic-mapper simulator channels four and three and the leaf area index for selected closed canopy or fully stocked forest stands along the gradient is analyzed. Results show that a good relationship exists between the LAI and the IR/red ratio for conifers and that a conifer species-independent asymptotic relationship is observed between LAI and near IR/red reflectance, with near radiometric saturation occurring at an LAI of about 7-8.

Spanner, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Fitting a Two-Component Scattering Model to Polarimetric SAR Data from Forests

Two simple scattering mechanisms are fitted to polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations of forests. The mechanisms are canopy scatter from a reciprocal medium with azimuthal symmetry and a ground scatter term that can represent double-bounce scatter from a pair of orthogonal surfaces with different dielectric constants or Bragg scatter from a moderately rough surface, which is seen through a layer of vertically oriented scatterers. The model is shown to represent the behavior of polarimetric backscatter from a tropical forest and two temperate forest sites by applying it to data from the National Aeronautic and Space Agency/Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Airborne SAR (AIRSAR) system. Scattering contributions from the two basic scattering mechanisms are estimated for clusters of pixels in polarimetric SAR images. The solution involves the estimation of four parameters from four separate equations. This model fit approach is justified as a simplification of more complicated scattering models, which require many inputs to solve the forward scattering problem. The model is used to develop an understanding of the ground-trunk double-bounce scattering that is present in the data, which is seen to vary considerably as a function of incidence angle. Two parameters in the model fit appear to exhibit sensitivity to vegetation canopy structure, which is worth further exploration. Results from the model fit for the ground scattering term are compared with estimates from a forward model and shown to be in good agreement. The behavior of the scattering from the ground-trunk interaction is consistent with the presence of a pseudo-Brewster angle effect for the air-trunk scattering interface. If the Brewster angle is known, it is possible to directly estimate the real part of the dielectric constant of the trunks, a key variable in forward modeling of backscatter from forests. It is also shown how, with a priori knowledge of the forest height, an estimate for the attenuation coefficient of the canopy can be obtained directly from the multi-incidence-angle polarimetric observations. This attenuation coefficient is another key variable in forward models and is generally related to the canopy density.

temperate forests↗
DOE OSTI2021

Variation in hyphal production rather than turnover regulates standing fungal biomass in temperate hardwood forests

Abstract Soil fungi link above‐ and belowground carbon (C) fluxes through their interactions with plants and contribute to C and nutrient dynamics through the production, turnover, and activity of fungal hyphae. Despite their importance to ecosystem processes, estimates of hyphal production and turnover rates are relatively uncommon, especially in temperate hardwood forests. We sequentially harvested hyphal ingrowth bags to quantify the rates of Dikarya (Ascomycota and Basidiomycota) hyphal production and turnover in three hardwood forests in the Midwestern United States, where plots differed in their abundance of arbuscular (AM)‐ vs. ectomycorrhizal (ECM)‐associated trees. Hyphal production rates increased linearly with the percentage of ECM trees and annual production rates were 66% higher in ECM‐ than AM‐dominated plots. Hyphal turnover rates did not differ across the mycorrhizal gradient (plots varying in their abundance of AM vs. ECM trees), suggesting that the greater fungal biomass in ECM‐dominated plots relates to greater fungal production rather than slower fungal turnover. Differences in hyphal production across the gradient aligned with distinctly different fungal communities and activities. As ECM trees increased in dominance, fungi inside ingrowth bags produced more extracellular enzymes involved in degrading nitrogen (N)‐bearing relative to C‐bearing compounds, suggesting greater fungal (and possibly plant) N demand in ECM‐dominated soils. Collectively, our results demonstrate that shifts in temperate tree species composition that result in changes in the dominant type of mycorrhizal association may have strong impacts on Dikarya hyphal production, fungal community composition and extracellular enzyme activity, with important consequences for soil C and N cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable forest management for carbon, wood and biodiversity must consider natural disturbance regimes

Abstract Forests provide multiple benefits that include sequestering carbon, supporting biodiversity, and providing wood products. Managing temperate forests to achieve these benefits sustainably is challenging given the legacy of past human impacts, the complexity of forest development, and increasing but unpredictable disturbances. These intricacies prompted debate about the most effective management of temperate forests to achieve climate mitigation while sustaining forest productivity, regeneration, and diversity. Most research focused on management impacts under relatively stable environmental conditions, whereas forests are facing increasingly frequent and more severe climatic and biotic disturbances. Here, we used a regionally calibrated forest growth model to simulate the effects of forest management on carbon, biodiversity, and wood production under prevalent natural disturbances in the northeastern US. We developed scenarios combining forest management and disturbance regimes based on assumptions of species-specific tree regeneration and mortality rates. We compared passive management with no cutting that prioritizes maintaining existing forest trees with two common regional harvest practices: exploitative timber harvest that prioritizes short-term wood production and regenerative timber harvest that prioritizes regenerating biodiverse native forest tree seedlings. In the absence of natural disturbance, no cutting provides 41% higher forest carbon storage and 50% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than exploitative or regenerative practices. The presence of drought, windstorm, pest, and disease disturbances altered these outcomes. Regenerative forest management provides 25% higher forest carbon storage and 26% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than no cutting. Our results demonstrate that wood products and their carbon storage and fossil emission avoidance are important for determining the total climate benefits of forest management under natural disturbances. Our findings highlight that natural disturbance regimes should be considered when selecting management to promote multiple forest benefits, suggesting the need for tailored as opposed to one-size-fits-all policies to sustainably manage temperate forests worldwide.

Liu, Weier (ORCID:0000000265914239)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accounting for Changes in Radiation Improves the Ability of SIF to Track Water Stress-Induced Losses in Summer GPP in a Temperate Deciduous Forest

Global observations of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) are available from multiple satellite platforms, and SIF is increasingly used as a proxy for photosynthetic activity and ecosystem productivity. Because the relationship between SIF and gross primary productivity (GPP) depends on a variety of factors including ecosystem type and environmental conditions, it is necessary to study SIF observations across various spatiotemporal scales and ecosystems. To explore how SIF signals relate to productivity over a temperate deciduous forest, we deployed a PhotoSpec spectrometer system at the University of Michigan Biological Station AmeriFlux site (US-UMB) in the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan during the 2018 and 2019 growing seasons. We found that SIF correlated with GPP across diurnal and seasonal cycles (R 2 = 0.61 and 0.64 for 90-min- and daily-averaged data), but that SIF signals were more strongly related to downwelling radiation than GPP (R 2 = 0.91 for daily-averaged data). The dependence of SIF on radiation obscured the impact of intraseasonal drought in the SIF timeseries, but drought stress was apparent as a decrease in relative SIF, which exhibited a stronger correlation with GPP (R 2 = 0.56) than other remotely sensed data over the drought period. These results highlight the potential of SIF for detecting stress-induced losses in forest productivity. Additionally, we found that the red:far-red SIF ratio did not exhibit a response to water stress-induced losses in productivity, but was largely driven by seasonal and interannual changes in canopy structure, as well as by synoptic changes in downwelling radiation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Remote sensing of temperate coniferous forest lead area index - The influence of canopy closure, understory vegetation and background reflectance

Consideration is given to the effects of canopy closure, understory vegetation, and background reflectance on the relationship between Landsat TM data and the leaf area index (LAI) of temperate coniferous forests in the western U.S. A methodology for correcting TM data for atmospheric conditions and sun-surface-sensor geometry is discussed. Strong inverse curvilinear relationships were found between coniferous forest LAI and TM bands 3 and 5. It is suggested that these inverse relationships are due to increased reflectance of understory vegetation and background in open stands of lower LAI and decreased reflectance of the overstory in closed canopy stands with higher LAI.

Spanner, Michael A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

The toughest animals of the Earth versus global warming: Effects of long‐term experimental warming on tardigrade community structure of a temperate deciduous forest

Abstract Understanding how different taxa respond to global warming is essential for predicting future changes and elaborating strategies to buffer them. Tardigrades are well known for their ability to survive environmental stressors, such as drying and freezing, by undergoing cryptobiosis and rapidly recovering their metabolic function after stressors cease. Determining the extent to which animals that undergo cryptobiosis are affected by environmental warming will help to understand the real magnitude climate change will have on these organisms. Here, we report on the responses of tardigrades within a five‐year‐long, field‐based artificial warming experiment, which consisted of 12 open‐top chambers heated to simulate the projected effects of global warming (ranging from 0 to 5.5°C above ambient temperature) in a temperate deciduous forest of North Carolina (USA). To elucidate the effects of warming on the tardigrade community inhabiting the soil litter, three community diversity indices (abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity) and the abundance of the three most abundant species ( Diphascon pingue , Adropion scoticum , and Mesobiotus sp.) were determined. Their relationships with air temperature, soil moisture, and the interaction between air temperature and soil moisture were tested using Bayesian generalized linear mixed models. Despite observed negative effects of warming on other ground invertebrates in previous studies at this site, long‐term warming did not affect the abundance, richness, or diversity of tardigrades in this experiment. These results are in line with previous experimental studies, indicating that tardigrades may not be directly affected by ongoing global warming, possibly due to their thermotolerance and cryptobiotic abilities to avoid negative effects of stressful temperatures, and the buffering effect on temperature of the soil litter substrate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tracking Seasonal and Interannual Variability in Photosynthetic Downregulation in Response to Water Stress at a Temperate Deciduous Forest

Abstract The understanding and modeling of photosynthetic dynamics affected by climate variability can be highly uncertain. In this paper, we examined a well‐characterized eddy covariance site in a drought‐prone temperate deciduous broadleaf forest combining tower measurements and satellite observations. We find that an increase in spring temperature usually leads to enhanced spring gross primary production (GPP), but a GPP reduction in late growing season due to water limitation. We evaluated how well a coupled fluorescence‐photosynthesis model (SCOPE) and satellite data sets track the interannual and seasonal variations of tower GPP from 2007 to 2016. In SCOPE, a simple stress factor scaling of Vcmax as a linear function of observed predawn leaf water potential ( ψ pd ) shows a good agreement between modeled and measured interannual variations in both GPP and solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment‐2 (GOME‐2). The modeled and satellite‐observed changes in SIF yield are ~30% smaller than corresponding changes in light use efficiency (LUE) under severe stress, for which a common linear SIF to GPP scaling would underestimate the stress reduction in GPP. Overall, GOME‐2 SIF tracks interannual tower GPP variations better than satellite vegetations indices (VIs) representing canopy “greenness.” However, it is still challenging to attribute observed SIF variations unequivocally to greenness or physiological changes due to large GOME‐2 footprint. Higher‐resolution SIF data sets (e.g., TROPOMI) already show the potential to well capture the downregulation of late‐season GPP and could pave the way to better disentangle canopy structural and physiological changes in the future.

He, Liyin↗
DOE OSTI2020

Harvest Intensity Effects on Carbon Stocks and Biodiversity Are Dependent on Regional Climate in Douglas-Fir Forests of British Columbia

Temperate forests provide crucial ecosystems services as living sinks for atmospheric carbon (C) and repositories of biodiversity. Applying harvesting at intensities that minimize losses offers one means for mitigating global change. However, little is known of overstory retention levels that best conserve ecosystem services in different regional climates, and likewise as climate changes. To quantify the effect of harvest intensity on C stocks and biodiversity, we compared five harvesting intensities (clearcutting, seedtree retention, 30% patch retention, 60% patch retention, and uncut controls) across a climatic aridity gradient that ranged from humid to semi-arid in the Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests of British Columbia. We found that increased harvesting intensity reduced total ecosystem, above ground, and live tree C stocks 1 year post-harvest, and the magnitude of these losses were negatively correlated with climatic aridity. In humid forests, total ecosystem C ranged from 50% loss following clearcut harvest, to 30% loss following large patch retention harvest. In arid forests this range was 60 to 8% loss, respectively. Where lower retention harvests are sought, the small patch retention treatment protected both C stocks and biodiversity in the arid forests, whereas the seedtree method performed as well or better in the humid forests. Below ground C stocks declined by an average of 29% after harvesting, with almost all of the loss from the forest floor and none from the mineral soil. Of the secondary pools, standing and coarse deadwood declined in all harvesting treatments regardless of cutting intensity or aridity, while C stocks in fine fuels and stumps increased. The understory plant C pool declined across all harvesting intensities in the humid forests, but increased in arid forests. Shannon’s diversity and richness of tree and bryoid species declined with harvesting intensity, where tree species losses were greatest in the humid forests and bryoid losses greatest in arid forests. Shrub and herb species were unaffected. This study showed that the highest retention level was best at reducing losses in C stocks and biodiversity, and clearcutting the poorest, and while partial retention of canopy trees can reduce losses in these ecosystem services, outcomes will vary with climatic aridity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Net exchange of CO2 in a mid-latitude forest

The eddy correlation method was used to measure the net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide continuously from April 1990 to December 1991 in a deciduous forest in central Massachusetts. The annual net uptake was 3.7 +/- 0.7 metric tons of carbon per hectare per year. Ecosystem respiration calculated from the relation between nighttime exchange and soil temperature, was 7.4 metric tons of carbon per hectare per year, implying gross ecosystem production of 11.1 metric tons of carbon per hectare per year. The observed rate of accumulation of carbon reflects recovery from agricultural development in the 1800s. Carbon uptake rates were notably larger than those assumed for temperate forests in global carbon studies. Carbon storage in temperate forests can play an important role in determining future concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Wofsy, S. C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global patterns of forest autotrophic carbon fluxes

Carbon (C) fixation, allocation, and metabolism by trees set the basis for energy and material flows in forest ecosystems and define their interactions with Earth’s changing climate. However, we lack a cohesive synthesis on how forest carbon fluxes vary globally with respect to climate and one another. Here, we draw upon 1,319 records from the Global Forest Carbon Database (ForC), representing all major forest types and the nine most significant autotrophic carbon fluxes, to comprehensively explore how C cycling in mature, undisturbed forests varies with latitude and climate on a global scale. We show that, across all flux variables analyzed, C cycling decreases continuously with absolute latitude – a finding that confirms multiple previous studies but contradicts the idea that net primary productivity of temperate forests rivals that of tropical forests. C flux variables generally displayed similar trends across latitude and multiple climate variables, with no differences in allocation detected at this global scale. Temperature variables in general, and mean annual temperature and temperature seasonality in particular, were the best univariate predictors of C flux, explaining 19 - 71% of variation in the C fluxes analyzed. The effects of temperature were modified by moisture availability, with C flux reduced under hot and dry conditions and sometimes under very high precipitation. C fluxes increased with growing season length, but this was never the best univariate predictor. Within the growing season, the influence of climate on C cycling was small but significant for a number of flux variables. These findings clarify how forest C flux varies with latitude and climate on a global scale. In a period of accelerating climatic change, this improved understanding of the fundamental climatic controls on forest C cycling sets a foundation for understanding patterns of change.

Banbury Morgan, Rebecca↗
NASA NTRS2021

Understanding Uncertainty of Snow Radiative Transfer Modeling Within a Mixed Deciduous and Evergreen Forest

Satellite-based passive microwave observations provide the best available continuous observational estimates of global snow water storage due to their broad geographic footprint and low sensitivity to clouds and precipitation. However, these observations are subject to substantial uncertainty due to the complex radiative properties of snow and from interference in forested areas. Physical radiative transfer models can be leveraged to improve the fidelity of these observations and as a data-assimilation tool. In this article, the Dense Media Radiative Transfer model with Multiple Layers (DMRT-ML) is used to simulate snow brightness temperatures from data collected from snow pits excavated during a two-day-long field study performed a temperate forest in the Northeast United States. The simulations are evaluated against surface-based radiometer observations collected at the snow pits. The DMRT-ML is configured with varying complexity to determine the snowpack characteristics most essential toward simulating brightness temperature within a temperate forest with complicated snow stratigraphy. In general, the single-layer configurations were not sufficiently complex to accurately simulate snow brightness temperature without significant tuning. The most accurate simulation was a two-layer configuration with a prescribed ice layer separating the snow layers. This simulation had a root-mean-square error <;15 K for the 37-GHz frequency. More complicated snowpack stratigraphy configurations did not substantively improve the results over the two-layer model configuration. The DMRT-ML was also used to examine differences between redundant datasets of density and grain size. It was determined that similar snow data collection and radiative transfer model configuration techniques are critical to ensure cross-study comparability.

Theodore Letcher↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupling of Tree Growth and Photosynthetic Carbon Uptake Across Six North American Forests

Linking biometric measurements of stand-level biomass growth to tower-based measurements of carbon uptake—gross primary productivity and net ecosystem productivity—has been the focus of numerous ecosystem-level studies aimed to better understand the factors regulating carbon allocation to slow-turnover wood biomass pools. However, few of these studies have investigated the importance of previous year uptake to growth. We tested the relationship between wood biomass increment (WBI) and different temporal periods of carbon uptake from the current and previous years to investigate the potential lagged allocation of fixed carbon to growth among six mature, temperate forests. We found WBI was strongly correlated to carbon uptake across space (i.e., long-term averages at the different sites) but on annual timescales, WBI was much less related to carbon uptake, suggesting a temporal mismatch between C fixation and allocation to biomass. We detected lags in allocation of the previous year's carbon uptake to WBI at three of the six sites. Sites with higher annual WBI had overall stronger correlations to carbon uptake, with the strongest correlations to carbon uptake from the previous year. Only one site had WBI with strong positive relationships to current year uptake and not the previous year. Forests with low rates of WBI demonstrated weak correlations to carbon uptake from the previous year and stronger relationships to current year climate conditions. Our work shows an important, but not universal, role of lagged allocation of the previous year's carbon uptake to growth in temperate forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy and Neutron Scattering Data, Mineral Incubation Experiment, Walker Branch Watershed, TN (2020 - 2021)

Iron (Fe) (oxyhydr)oxides are well-recognized contributors to soil carbon (C) storage, but the effects of manganese (Mn) oxides on carbon storage and transformation are relatively unexplored. Here, the relative capacities of Fe and Mn oxides to bind and stabilize soil organic C were directly compared using an in-situ incubation experiment. Quartz sands coated with either poorly crystalline Mn(III/IV) oxides or Fe(III) oxides, or left uncoated, were buried in a temperate forest soil for up to one year. This data package contains processed data outputs of carbon near edge x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (C NEXAFS), iron and manganese x-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy (XANES), and small angle neutron scattering (SANS) data collected for initial oxide-coated and uncoated quartz sands and for those buried in the temperate forest soil for 365 days.

Energy (eV)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative, trait-based microbial ecology to accurately model the impacts of nitrogen deposition on soil carbon cycling in the Anthropocene (Final Technical Report)

Atmospheric nitrogen pollution has altered fundamental soil processes, challenging our understanding of the extent to which soils will continue to sequester carbon and slow the pace of future environmental change. While most evidence shows that increases in soil nitrogen have enhanced carbon storage in temperate forests, it remains unclear whether these effects will persist as nitrogen pollution continues to decline. Moreover, there remains uncertainty as to why some forests gain more carbon in response to nitrogen pollution than others. At the heart of this knowledge gap is a failure to link nitrogen–induced shifts in microbial biodiversity with gains or losses in their functional ability to decompose, assimilate, and ultimately stabilize soil carbon. Given that this uncertainty impedes the ability of predictive models to project future soil carbon stocks, there is a critical need to determine how key microbial traits drive soil carbon responses to nitrogen pollution. As such the goals of this project were to: (1) Quantify variation in taxon–specific and community–level microbial traits across gradients in microbial community composition, mycorrhizal symbioses, and nitrogen availability. (2) Integrate empirical data into a novel predictive framework that enhances our ability to project the regional soil carbon consequences of historical nitrogen pollution in temperate forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Midwest US Croplands Determine Model Divergence in North American Carbon Fluxes

Large uncertainties in North American terrestrial carbon fluxes hinder regional climate projections. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), the essential tools for understanding continental-scale carbon cycle, diverge on whether temperate forests or croplands dominate carbon uptake in North America. Evidence from novel photosynthetic proxies, such as those based on chlorophyll fluorescence, has cast doubt on the “weak cropland, strong forest” carbon uptake patterns simulated by most TBMs. However, no systematic evaluation of TBMs has yet been attempted to pin down space-time patterns that are most consistent with regional CO 2 observational constraints. Here, we leverage atmospheric CO 2 observations and satellite-observed photosynthetic proxies to understand emergent space-time patterns in North American carbon fluxes from a large suite of TBMs and data-driven models. To do so, we evaluate how well the atmospheric signals resulting from carbon flux estimates reproduce the space-time variability in atmospheric CO 2 , as is observed by a network of continuous-monitoring towers over North America. Models with gross or net carbon fluxes that are consistent with the observed CO 2 variability share a salient feature of growing-season carbon uptake in Midwest US croplands. Conversely, the remaining models place most growing-season uptake in boreal or temperate forests. Differences in model explanatory power depend mainly on the simulated annual cycles of cropland uptake—especially, the timing of peak uptake—rather than the distribution of annual mean fluxes across biomes. Our results suggest that improved model representation of cropland phenology is crucial to robust, policy-relevant estimation of North American carbon exchange.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗