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At least 73 records · Page 4

Effect of turbulence-induced correlation on laser remote sensing errors

Using a 10.6-micron dual-laser differential-absorption laser remote sensing system, the short- and long-term temporal correlation of the returns from topographic targets and retroreflectors are measured in order to investigate the effect of atmospheric turbulence on laser remote sensing measurement errors. The results quantify the improvement obtained through use of a dual-laser system compared to that of a single-laser system and are in good agreement with those predicted by a theory which considers the effect of partial temporal correlation on the resultant measurement error.

Killinger, D. K.↗

Improving z-tracking accuracy in the two-photon single-particle tracking microscope

Here, we present a method that can improve the z-tracking accuracy of the recently invented TSUNAMI (Tracking of Single particles Using Nonlinear And Multiplexed Illumination) microscope. This method utilizes a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) to determine the particle's 3D position that maximizes the likelihood of the observed time-correlated photon count distribution. Our Monte Carlo simulations show that the MLE-based tracking scheme can improve the z-tracking accuracy of TSUNAMI microscope by 1.7 fold. In addition, MLE is also found to reduce the temporal correlation of the z-tracking error. Taking advantage of the smaller and less temporally correlated z-tracking error, we have precisely recovered the hybridization-melting kinetics of a DNA model system from thousands of short single-particle trajectories in silico. Our method can be generally applied to other 3D single-particle tracking techniques.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Evaluation of long-term Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent products

Nine gridded Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) products were evaluated as part of the European Space Agency (ESA) Satellite Snow Product Intercomparison and Evaluation Exercise (SnowPEx). Three categories of datasets were assessed: (1) those utilizing some form of reanalysis (the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System version 2 – GLDAS-2; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim land surface reanalysis – ERA-Interim/Land and ERA5; the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 1 (MERRA) and version 2 (MERRA-2); the Crocus snow model driven by ERA-Interim meteorology – Crocus); (2) passive microwave remote sensing combined with daily surface snow depth observations (ESA GlobSnow v2.0); and (3) stand-alone passive microwave retrievals (NASA AMSR-E SWE versions 1.0 and 2.0) which do not utilize surface snow observations. Evaluation included validation against independent snow course measurements from Russia, Finland, and Canada and product intercomparison through the calculation of spatial and temporal correlations in SWE anomalies. The stand-alone passive microwave SWE products (AMSR-E v1.0 and v2.0 SWE) exhibit low spatial and temporal correlations to other products and RMSE nearly double the best performing product. Constraining passive microwave retrievals with surface observations (GlobSnow) provides performance comparable to the reanalysis-based products; RMSE over Finland and Russia for all but the AMSR-E products is ∼50 mm or less, with the exception of ERA-Interim/Land over Russia. Using a seven-dataset ensemble that excluded the stand-alone passive microwave products reduced the RMSE by 10 mm (20 %) and increased the correlation from 0.67 to 0.78 compared to any individual product. The overall performance of the best multiproduct combinations is still at the margins of acceptable uncertainty for scientific and operational requirements; only through combined and integrated improvements in remote sensing, modeling, and observations will real progress in SWE product development be achieved.

Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) pr↗

Agreement of central site measurements and land use regression modeled oxidative potential of PM{sub 2.5} with personal exposure

Oxidative potential (OP) of ambient particulate matter (PM) has been suggested as a health-relevant exposure metric. In order to use OP for exposure assessment, information is needed about how well central site OP measurements and modeled average OP at the home address reflect temporal and spatial variation of personal OP. We collected 96-hour personal, home outdoor and indoor PM{sub 2.5} samples from 15 volunteers living either at traffic, urban or regional background locations in Utrecht, the Netherlands. OP was also measured at one central reference site to account for temporal variations. OP was assessed using electron spin resonance (OP{sup ESR}) and dithiothreitol (OP{sup DTT}). Spatial variation of average OP at the home address was modeled using land use regression (LUR) models. For both OP{sup ESR} and OP{sup DTT}, temporal correlations of central site measurements with home outdoor measurements were high (R>0.75), and moderate to high (R=0.49–0.70) with personal measurements. The LUR model predictions for OP correlated significantly with the home outdoor concentrations for OP{sup DTT} and OP{sup ESR} (R=0.65 and 0.62, respectively). LUR model predictions were moderately correlated with personal OP{sup DTT} measurements (R=0.50). Adjustment for indoor sources, such as vacuum cleaning and absence of fume-hood, improved the temporal and spatial agreement with measured personal exposure for OP{sup ESR}. OP{sup DTT} was not associated with any indoor sources. Our study results support the use of central site OP for exposure assessment of epidemiological studies focusing on short-term health effects. - Highlights: • Oxidative potential (OP) of PM was proposed as a health-relevant exposure metric. • We evaluated the relationship between measured and modeled outdoor and personal OP. • Temporal correlations of central site with personal OP are moderate to high. • Adjusting for indoor sources improved the agreement with personal OP. • Our results support the use of central site OP for short-term health effect studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assimilation of Terrestrial Water Storage from GRACE in a Snow-Dominated Basin

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) information derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measurements is assimilated into a land surface model over the Mackenzie River basin located in northwest Canada. Assimilation is conducted using an ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS). Model estimates with and without assimilation are compared against independent observational data sets of snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff. For SWE, modest improvements in mean difference (MD) and root mean squared difference (RMSD) are achieved as a result of the assimilation. No significant differences in temporal correlations of SWE resulted. Runoff statistics of MD remain relatively unchanged while RMSD statistics, in general, are improved in most of the sub-basins. Temporal correlations are degraded within the most upstream sub-basin, but are, in general, improved at the downstream locations, which are more representative of an integrated basin response. GRACE assimilation using an EnKS offers improvements in hydrologic state/flux estimation, though comparisons with observed runoff would be enhanced by the use of river routing and lake storage routines within the prognostic land surface model. Further, GRACE hydrology products would benefit from the inclusion of better constrained models of post-glacial rebound, which significantly affects GRACE estimates of interannual hydrologic variability in the Mackenzie River basin.

Forman, Barton A.↗

A Search for MeV to TeV Neutrinos from Fast Radio Bursts with IceCube

We present two searches for IceCube neutrino events coincident with 28 fast radio bursts (FRBs) and 1 repeating FRB. The first improves on a previous IceCube analysis - searching for spatial and temporal correlation of events with FRBs at energies greater than roughly 50 GeV - by increasing the effective area by an order of magnitude. The second is a search for temporal correlation of MeV neutrino events with FRBs. No significant correlation is found in either search; therefore, we set upper limits on the time-integrated neutrino flux emitted by FRBs for a range of emission timescales less than one day. These are the first limits on FRB neutrino emission at the MeV scale, and the limits set at higher energies are an order-of-magnitude improvement over those set by any neutrino telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Heat release surrogates for NH 3 /H 2 /N 2 –air premixed flames

The present study investigates the performance of NH, NH 2 , O-atom, and H-atom as heat release rate (HRR) surrogates for NH 3 /H 2 /N 2 –air premixed flame through simulations. The simulations are conducted across different pressures, reactant inlet temperatures, fuel blend compositions, and equivalence ratios. Cantera is used to simulate one-dimensional (1D) freely propagating flames to investigate the spatial correlations of the species with the HRR. PeleLMeX, a low-Mach direct numerical simulation (DNS) code with Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR), is used to simulate two-dimensional (2D) flame-vortex interactions to investigate the temporal correlations including stretch effects. Three different mechanisms (Jiang et al. 2020; Glarborg et al. 2018; Okafor et al. 2018) were considered in the 1D flame simulations, whereas only the Jiang mechanism was considered in the flame-vortex simulations. The HRR surrogate performance for the 2D flames is evaluated at two different locations: (1) the centerline and (2) the flame cusp. The cusp is defined as the region in the flame front with the greatest curvature and the centerline encounters the highest tangential strain rate. The 1D flame results suggest that, although there is not uniformly good spatial correlation for HRR across all flame conditions, NH is the best overall as a HRR surrogate for laminar flames. The 2D flame results, however, suggest that O-atom and H-atom have satisfactory temporal correlations at different conditions—the former for rich flames, the latter for high-pressure flames. Furthermore, these simulations provide guidance to experimental measurements of surrogate HRR markers in unsteady multi-dimensional flames using laser diagnostics to detect species such as NH, O-atom, and H-atom.

Ammonia↗

Model performance in spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation: New methods for identifying value added by a regional climate model: Value added by a regional climate model

Regional climate models (RCMs) are a standard tool for downscaling climate forecasts to finer spatial scales. The evaluation of RCMs against observational data is an important step in building confidence in the use of RCMs for future prediction. In addition to model performance in climatological means and marginal distributions, a model’s ability to capture spatio-temporal relationships is important. This study develops two approaches: (1) spatial correlation/variogram for a range of spatial lags, with total monthly precipitation and non-seasonal precipitation components used to assess the spatial variations of precipitation; and (2) spatio-temporal correlation for a wide range of distances, directions, and time lags, with daily precipitation occurrence used to detect the dynamic features of precipitation. These measures of spatial and spatio-temporal dependence are applied to a high-resolution RCM run and to the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP II reanalysis data (NCEP-R2), which provides initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RCM. The RCM performs better than NCEP-R2 in capturing both the spatial variations of total and non-seasonal precipitation components and the spatio-temporal correlations of daily precipitation occurrences, which are related to dynamic behaviors of precipitating systems. The improvements are apparent not just at resolutions finer than that of NCEP-R2, but also when the RCM and observational data are aggregated to the resolution of NCEP-R2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface Rebound of Relativistic Dislocations Directly and Efficiently Initiates Deformation Twinning

Under ultrahigh stresses (e.g., under high strain rates or in small-volume metals) deformation twinning (DT) initiates on a very short time scale, indicating strong spatial-temporal correlations in dislocation dynamics. Using atomistic simulations, here we demonstrate that surface rebound of relativistic dislocations directly and efficiently triggers DT under a wide range of laboratory experimental conditions. Because of its stronger temporal correlation, surface rebound sustained relay of partial dislocations is shown to be dominant over the conventional mechanism of thermally activated nucleation of twinning dislocations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Multiwavelength monitoring of the BL Lacertae object PKS 2155-304. 4: Multiwavelength analysis

Simultaneous X-ray, ultraviolet, optical, infrared, and radio monitoring data were used to test and constrain models of continuum emission from the BL Lacertae object PKS 2155-304. Intensively sampled ultraviolet and soft X-ray light curves showed a clear temporal correlation with the X-rays leading the ultraviolet by 2-3 hr. This lag was found to be significantly different from zero after an exhaustive comparison of four different techniques for measuring temporal correlations. Variations in the ultraviolet trough optical wave bands were also strongly correlated, with no measurable lag down to limiting timescales of approximately less than 1-2 hr. This strong correlation extends to the near-infrared, but the less intensive sampling precludes measurement of any lag beyomnd an upper limit of approximately less than 1 day. These lags and limits of the order of hours are much shorter than most rapid observed single-band variations. Because of the very sparse radio sampling, it was not possible to measure quantitatively the correlation and lag with shorter wavelengths, but the data do suggest that the radio may lag the optical/ultraviolet by approximately 1 week, with longer delays and weaker variations to longer radio wavelengths. The epoch-folding Q(exp 2) statistic was used to test for periodicity, and no evidence for strict or quasi-periodicity was found in any of the light curves. Because they lead the lower frequencies, the soft X-rays (approximately less than 1 keV) cannot arise from synchrotron self-Compton scattering. These results also rule out the accretion disk model, which predicts a measurable lag between ultraviolet/optical wavelength bands and a correlation between hardness and brightness, neither of which were seen. They are consistent with the entire radio through X-ray continuum arising from direct synchrotron emission from a relativistic jet. However, the tapered jet model, in which the X-ray emission is produced closer in, has problems explaining the magnitude of the ultraviolet/X-ray lag, because the X-ray-emitting electrons have very short lifetimes (t(sub 1/2) much less than 1 s). The result that the lag is much smaller than the variability timescale suggests instead that the radiation may be produced in a flattened region such as a shock front.

Edelson, R.↗

Hydroxide diffuses slower than hydronium in water because its solvated structure inhibits correlated proton transfer

Proton transfer via hydronium and hydroxide ions in water is ubiquitous. It underlies acid–base chemistry, certain enzyme reactions, and even infection by the flu. Despite two centuries of investigation, the mechanism underlying why hydroxide diffuses slower than hydronium in water is still not well understood. Herein, we employ state-of-the-art density-functional-theory-based molecular dynamics—with corrections for non-local van der Waals interactions, and self-interaction in the electronic ground state—to model water and hydrated water ions. At this level of theory, we show that structural diffusion of hydronium preserves the previously recognized concerted behaviour. However, by contrast, proton transfer via hydroxide is less temporally correlated, due to a stabilized hypercoordination solvation structure that discourages proton transfer. Specifically, the latter exhibits non-planar geometry, which agrees with neutron-scattering results. Asymmetry in the temporal correlation of proton transfer leads to hydroxide diffusing slower than hydronium.

Chen, Mohan↗

Hypothesis tests for the detection of constant speed radiation moving sources

Radiation Portal Monitors are deployed in linear network to detect radiological material in motion. As a complement to single and multichannel detection algorithms, inefficient under too low signal to noise ratios, temporal correlation algorithms have been introduced. Test hypothesis methods based on empirically estimated mean and variance of the signals delivered by the different channels have shown significant gain in terms of a tradeoff between detection sensitivity and false alarm probability. This paper discloses the concept of a new hypothesis test for temporal correlation detection methods, taking advantage of the Poisson nature of the registered counting signals, and establishes a benchmark between this test and its empirical counterpart. The simulation study validates that in the four relevant configurations of a pedestrian source carrier under respectively high and low count rate radioactive background, and a vehicle source carrier under the same respectively high and low count rate radioactive background, the newly introduced hypothesis test ensures a significantly improved compromise between sensitivity and false alarm, while guaranteeing the stability of its optimization parameter regardless of signal to noise ratio variations between 2 to 0.8. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Enhanced Tensor Completion Based Approaches for State Estimation in Distribution Systems

Grid state estimation is essential for effective control and management of distribution systems. While weighted least squares has been the conventional method for state estimation, sparsity-aware methods have become popular due to their superior performance with limited data. Matrix completion and compressed sensing-based state estimation approaches exploit the underlying smoothness in the state variables. However, classic matrix completion methods do not take into account the temporal correlation of system states. Compressed sensing methods, on the other hand, require an appropriate choice of sparsifying basis that may not be easy to identify. This paper proposes a blocktensor completion based framework which uses an alternative approach to estimate voltage phasor, power injections and branch currents. This approach utilizes the temporal correlation of the system states in a tensor trace-norm minimization formulation with power flow equations as constraints. Herein, feature scaling is introduced in the problem formulation to benefit from the improved sensitivity of the tensor trace norm to the matrix columns in the scaled unfoldings of the tensor. Weighted tensor norm is utilized to exploit the structures of the different unfoldings of the state measurement tensor to improve the voltage estimation. The estimation accuracy is further improved by alternatively estimating the tensor columns and increasing the available data at each stage in the tensor completion process. The proposed methods are evaluated on the IEEE-33, 37 test systems and a 100- node test system. The proposed methods are shown to provide significant performance gains relative to the classic matrix and tensor completion based approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Ultra-Broad-Band Optical Parametric Amplifier or Oscillator

A concept for an ultra-broad-band optical parametric amplifier or oscillator has emerged as a by-product of a theoretical study in fundamental quantum optics. The study was originally intended to address the question of whether the two-photon temporal correlation function of light [in particular, light produced by spontaneous parametric down conversion (SPDC)] can be considerably narrower than the inverse of the spectral width (bandwidth) of the light. The answer to the question was found to be negative. More specifically, on the basis of the universal integral relations between the quantum two-photon temporal correlation and the classical spectrum of light, it was found that the lower limit of two-photon correlation time is set approximately by the inverse of the bandwidth. The mathematical solution for the minimum two-photon correlation time also provides the minimum relative frequency dispersion of the down-converted light components; in turn, the minimum relative frequency dispersion translates to the maximum bandwidth, which is important for the design of an ultra-broad-band optical parametric oscillator or amplifier. In the study, results of an analysis of the general integral relations were applied in the case of an optically nonlinear, frequency-dispersive crystal in which SPDC produces collinear photons. Equations were found for the crystal orientation and pump wavelength, specific for each parametric-down-converting crystal, that eliminate the relative frequency dispersion of collinear degenerate (equal-frequency) signal and idler components up to the fourth order in the frequency-detuning parameter

Strekalov, Dmitry↗

Signal averaging limitations in heterodyne- and direct-detection laser remote sensing measurements

The improvement in measurement uncertainty brought about by the averaging of increasing numbers of pulse return signals in both heterodyne- and direct-detection lidar systems is investigated. A theoretical analysis is presented which shows the standard deviation of the mean measurement to decrease as the inverse square root of the number of measurements, except in the presence of temporal correlation. Experimental measurements based on a dual-hybrid-TEA CO2 laser differential absorption lidar system are reported which demonstrate that the actual reduction in the standard deviation of the mean in both heterodyne- and direct-detection systems is much slower than the inverse square-root dependence predicted for uncorrelated signals, but is in agreement with predictions in the event of temporal correlation. Results thus favor the use of direct detection at relatively short range where the lower limit of the standard deviation of the mean is about 2 percent, but advantages of heterodyne detection at longer ranges are noted.

Menyuk, N.↗

Exploring Properties and Correlations of Fatal Events in a Large-Scale HPC System

In this study, we explore potential correlations of fatal system events for one of the most powerful supercomputers-IBM Blue Gene/Q Mira, which is deployed at Argonne National Laboratory, based on its 5-year reliability, availability, and serviceability (RAS) log. Our contribution is two-fold. (1) We design an efficient log analysis tool, namely LogAider, with a novel filtering method to effectively extract fatal events from masses of system messages that are heavily duplicated in the log. LogAider exhibits a very precise detection of temporal-correlation with a high similarity (up to 95 percent) to the ground-truth (i.e., compared to the failure records reported by the administrators). The total number of fatal events can be reduced to about 1,255 compared with originally 2.6 million duplicated fatal messages. (2) We analyze the 5-year RAS log of the MIRA system using LogAider, and summarize six important "takeaways" which can help system vendors and administrators better understand an extreme-scale system's fatal events. Specifically, we find that the distribution or proportion of the fatal system events follow a Pareto-like principle in general. The temporal correlation among fatal events is much stronger than that of warn messages and info messages, and the correlated events tend to constitute a few clusters. The mean time between fatal events (MTBFE) of the Mira system is about 1.3 days from the perspective of the system, and the MTTI is 2-4 days from the perspective of users. The most error-prone item value with respect to any key attribute appears likely in the log every 2-10 days. Weibull, Gamma, and Pearson6 are the three best-fit distributions for the fatal event intervals. The overall correlation of fatal events on the 5D torus network is not prominent, whereas the small-region locality correlation (e.g., the fatal events inside racks) is relatively strong. We believe our work will be interesting to large-scale HPC system administrators and vendors and to fault tolerance researchers, enabling them to better understand fatal events and mitigate such events accordingly.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Technical note: Using long short-term memory models to fill data gaps in hydrological monitoring networks

Abstract. Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics in subsurface hydrological flows over a long time window usually employs a network of monitoring wells. However, such observations are often spatially sparse with potential temporal gaps due to poor quality or instrument failure. In this study, we explore the ability of recurrent neural networks to fill gaps in a spatially distributed time-series dataset. We use a well network that monitors the dynamic and heterogeneous hydrologic exchanges between the Columbia River and its adjacent groundwater aquifer at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford site. This 10-year-long dataset contains hourly temperature, specific conductance, and groundwater table elevation measurements from 42 wells with gaps of various lengths. We employ a long short-term memory (LSTM) model to capture the temporal variations in the observed system behaviors needed for gap filling. The performance of the LSTM-based gap-filling method was evaluated against a traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method in terms of error statistics and accuracy in capturing the temporal patterns of river corridor wells with various dynamics signatures. Our study demonstrates that the ARIMA models yield better average error statistics, although they tend to have larger errors during time windows with abrupt changes or high-frequency (daily and subdaily) variations. The LSTM-based models excel in capturing both high-frequency and low-frequency (monthly and seasonal) dynamics. However, the inclusion of high-frequency fluctuations may also lead to overly dynamic predictions in time windows that lack such fluctuations. The LSTM can take advantage of the spatial information from neighboring wells to improve the gap-filling accuracy, especially for long gaps in system states that vary at subdaily scales. While LSTM models require substantial training data and have limited extrapolation power beyond the conditions represented in the training data, they afford great flexibility to account for the spatial correlations, temporal correlations, and nonlinearity in data without a priori assumptions. Thus, LSTMs provide effective alternatives to fill in data gaps in spatially distributed time-series observations characterized by multiple dominant frequencies of variability, which are essential for advancing our understanding of dynamic complex systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗