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DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task E Final Report

This is the Task E final report for DECOVALEX-2023. Task E is focused on understanding thermal, two-phase hydrological, and mechanical (TH2M) processes, especially related to predicting brine migration in the excavation damaged zone around a heated excavation in salt. Salt is attractive as a disposal medium for radioactive waste because it is self-healing and is essentially impermeable and essentially non-porous in the far field (away from excavations). Investigation of the short-term (days to years) near-field (centimeters to tens of meters) behavior of salt is important for radioactive waste disposal because this early period strongly controls the amount of brine in a salt repository. Brine leads to corrosion of waste forms and waste packages, and possible dissolution of radionuclides with brine transport being a potential transport vector to the accessible environment. The main test case used in Task E is the ongoing Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) heater test located underground at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, USA. The Task was divided into a series of Steps. Step 0 was an introduction to processes in salt, that included matching historical unheated brine inflow data from boreholes at WIPP and matching temperature observations during BATS heater test 1a. Step 1 included validation of models against a thermo-poroelastic analytical solution relevant to heated boreholes in salt, and two-phase flow around an excavation in salt. Step 2 required all the individual components covered in steps 0 and 1 to come together to match observed brine inflow behavior during the BATS 1a heater test. There were a range of approaches from the teams, from mechanistic to prescriptive. Given the uncertainties in the problem, some teams used one- or two-dimensional models of the processes, while other teams included more geometrical complexity in three-dimensional models. The key learning points from Task E have been: • Heat conduction through salt typically requires non-linear thermal conductivity (as a function of temperature), but most models do a good job matching observations, given appropriate adjustments to the applied power and some thermocouple locations. • Thermal pressurization requires coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) responses that consider the thermal expansion of the fluid and solid phases. • Initialization of two-phase flow models around a borehole or excavation in salt are more realistically represented as “wetting up”, rather than “drying down” (i.e., the initial state after excavation is mostly dry, rather than mostly wet). • The BATS 1a heater test includes a significant release of brine after the end of heating, which requires a large increase in permeability to recreate. Task E has been a great learning experience for all the teams involved, and feedback from the modeling teams has led to changes in the design of follow-on BATS experiments, which are now ongoing underground at WIPP. There was a balance throughout the task between freedom to model phenomena how each team saw fit, and prescriptiveness in problem design to bring the modeling teams closer together to allow attribution of smaller differences between models to different modeling choices. The modeling approaches seem to go through two phases: an early phase of discovery or testing, and a later phase of refinement and improvement. In future modeling efforts, different field data could be used (e.g., BATS 2) and more time should be included in the processes for teams to make multiple model refinement or even significant changes to their conceptual model or setup, based on lessons learned from the modeling exercise.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

The LSST AGN Data Challenge: Selection Methods

Abstract Development of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) includes a series of Data Challenges (DCs) arranged by various LSST Scientific Collaborations that are taking place during the project's preoperational phase. The AGN Science Collaboration Data Challenge (AGNSC-DC) is a partial prototype of the expected LSST data on active galactic nuclei (AGNs), aimed at validating machine learning approaches for AGN selection and characterization in large surveys like LSST. The AGNSC-DC took place in 2021, focusing on accuracy, robustness, and scalability. The training and the blinded data sets were constructed to mimic the future LSST release catalogs using the data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 region and the XMM-Newton Large Scale Structure Survey region. Data features were divided into astrometry, photometry, color, morphology, redshift, and class label with the addition of variability features and images. We present the results of four submitted solutions to DCs using both classical and machine learning methods. We systematically test the performance of supervised models (support vector machine, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, artificial neural network, convolutional neural network) and unsupervised ones (deep embedding clustering) when applied to the problem of classifying/clustering sources as stars, galaxies, or AGNs. We obtained classification accuracy of 97.5% for supervised models and clustering accuracy of 96.0% for unsupervised ones and 95.0% with a classic approach for a blinded data set. We find that variability features significantly improve the accuracy of the trained models, and correlation analysis among different bands enables a fast and inexpensive first-order selection of quasar candidates.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Novel Machine Learning Algorithm for Planetary Boundary Layer Height Estimation Using AERI Measurement Data

Accurately determining the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is important since it can affect the climate, weather, and air quality. Ground-based infrared hyperspectral remote sensing is an effective way to obtain this parameter. Compared with radiosonde measurements, its temporal resolution is much higher. In this study, a method to retrieve the PBL height (PBLH) from the ground-based infrared hyperspectral radiance data is proposed based on machine learning. In this method, the channels that are sensitive to temperature and humidity profiles are selected as the feature vectors, and the PBLHs derived from radiosonde are taken as the true values. The support vector machine (SVM) is applied to train and test the data set, and the parameters are optimized in the process. The data set collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) from 2012 to 2015 is analyzed. The instruments used in this letter include Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), Vaisala CL31 ceilometer, and radiosonde. It shows that the root mean square error (RMSE) between the PBLHs calculated by the proposed method using AERI data and those from radiosonde data can be within 370 m, and the square correlation coefficient (SCC) is greater than 0.7. Compared with the PBLHs derived from the ceilometer, it can be found that the new method is more stable and less affected by clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fully Distributed Multi-Material Magnetic Sensing Structures for Multiparameter DAS Applications

This dissertation demonstrates the first of its kind distributed magnetic field sensor based on a fiber optic distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) scheme. Ferromagnetic nickel and Metglas® were dispersed internally within a fiber optic preform and then drawn on an in-house fiber optic draw tower to lengths in the kilometers. Due to the close proximity of the ferromagnetic metals and fiber optic core, the magnetostrictive strain response of the ferromagnetic materials when exposed to a magnetic field would perturbate within the fiber cladding and transfer that strain, internally, to the fiber optic core. Strain resulting from the magnetostrictive effect allows the DAS based sensor to accurately translate strain into readable magnetic field data. Due to the high sensitivity seen in this sensor design, multiparameter sources, acoustic and magnetic fields, were tested and validated and a three dimensional magnetic-field vector sensor was proposed. Numerical analysis of the novel sensor design was first implemented using COMSOL Multiphysics, where inputs such as magnetostrictive element shape, size, distance, and number were first investigated. Upon optimizing system constraints, the sensor design was further modified such that single mode operation was consistent across multiple fiber draws while retaining high strain transfer from the ferromagnetic elements to the fiber optic core. Ferromagnetic material selection was evaluated as a function of the saturation magnetostriction constants and a total of 4 modules were used to fully characterize the complex physics involved in this sensor design. All fabrication and testing were performed in-house using a full scale 3-story fiber draw tower and custom environmental testing stations to imitate naturally occurring events such as magnetic or acoustic point sources. A unique stacking method was used to embed ferromagnetic nickel and Metglas® into a fiber optic preform which when combined with a custom fiber draw process resulted in consistent multi-material fibers drawn to lengths of 1-km. In-house testing facilities included different types of electromagnetic generators, in addition to a soil test bed, and an outdoor test bed which allowed 100 meters of fiber to be tested simultaneously. All tested sensors demonstrated high strain transfer capabilities on the order of 0.01-10 μϵ depending on the materials used, ferromagnetic rod number, and core to metal spacing. Due to the sensitivity of the system the difference between AC and DC was distinct, and directional magnetostriction was studied. Transverse and longitudinal magnetic wave propagation was controlled through a solenoid and rectangular Helmholtz coil, both built in-house. A three-dimensional magnetic field vector sensor was proposed due to the success of the magnetic field sensor, and a design was proposed and initially tested to validate direction as a function of field strength and distance. To summarize, this dissertation explores the first fully distributed magnetic field sensor using DAS based techniques and one of the first multi-material fiber draw processes which can produce consistent single mode fiber up to 1-km. Due to extensive FEA modeling, multiple iterations of the magnetic sensor were fully characterized and an equation describing the relationship between sensor design and strain transfer has been created and validated experimentally. Multi-parameter tests including acoustic and magnetic fields were implemented and an algorithm was developed to separate the mixed signals. Finally, a test was performed to demonstrate the feasibility of sensing magnetic fields directionally. Cumulative results demonstrate a high-quality sensor alternative to current designs which may surpass other magnetic sensors due to innate multi-parameter capabilities, in addition to the inexpensive production cost and extremely long operating lengths.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Macroscopic Traffic Modeling Using Probe Vehicle Data: A Machine Learning Approach

Abstract The macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) captures an orderly relationship among traffic flow, density, and speed at the network level. It is a simple yet powerful tool for modeling traffic dynamics in large urban networks with broad application in traffic control and management. However, empirically derived MFDs in urban regions require high-resolution traffic data from the network. Having the network flow and vehicular density estimated at the (granular) census tract level using vehicle probe data, we apply machine learning methods to predict the MFDs across U.S. urban areas and capture the impacts of location-specific input features on the network flow–density relationships at a large scale. The results show that, among the four tested machine learning approaches (Random Forest, XGBoost, Support Vector Machine, and Neural Network), XGBoost delivers the best performance in predicting network traffic flow based on vehicular density and location attributes. Using interaction Shapley Additive explanation (SHAP) values and partial correlation analysis, we examine the factors influencing MFD shapes across different locations. Our empirical findings reveal that across U.S. urban areas, network topology, transportation infrastructure, and land use are primary factors shaping MFD curves, while demand and trip-related factors play a lesser role. Specifically, higher ranking roads, centrality, and development levels correlate positively with network capacity and critical density, whereas negative associations are observed for network connectivity, mixed-use development, and road roughness levels.

Jin, Ling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fiducial and differential cross-section measurements of electroweak $W\gamma jj$ production in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

The observation of the electroweak production of a W boson and a photon in association with two jets, using pp collision data at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre of mass energy of $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV, is reported. The data were recorded by the ATLAS experiment from 2015 to 2018 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb -1 . This process is sensitive to the quartic gauge boson couplings via the vector boson scattering mechanism and provides a stringent test of the electroweak sector of the Standard Model. Events are selected if they contain one electron or muon, missing transverse momentum, at least one photon, and two jets. Multivariate techniques are used to distinguish the electroweak $W\gamma jj$ process from irreducible background processes. The observed significance of the electroweak $W\gamma jj$ process is well above six standard deviations, compared to an expected significance of 6.3 standard deviations. Fiducial and differential cross sections are measured in a fiducial phase space close to the detector acceptance, which are in reasonable agreement with leading order Standard Model predictions from MADGRAPH5+PYTHIA8 and SHERPA. The results are used to constrain new physics effects in the context of an effective field theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feasibility of Adding Twitter Data to Aid Drought Depiction: Case Study in Colorado

The use of social media, such as Twitter, has changed the information landscape for citizens’ participation in crisis response and recovery activities. Given that drought progression is slow and also spatially extensive, an interesting set of questions arise, such as how the usage of Twitter by a large population may change during the development of a major drought alongside how the changing usage facilitates drought detection. For this reason, contemporary analysis of how social media data, in conjunction with meteorological records, was conducted towards improvement in the detection of drought and its progression. The research utilized machine learning techniques applied over satellite-derived drought conditions in Colorado. Three different machine learning techniques were examined: the generalized linear model, support vector machines and deep learning, each applied to test the integration of Twitter data with meteorological records as a predictor of drought development. It is found that the integration of data resources is viable given that the Twitter-based model outperformed the control run which did not include social media input. Eight of the ten models tested showed quantifiable improvements in the performance over the control run model, suggesting that the Twitter-based model was superior in predicting drought severity. Future work lies in expanding this method to depict drought in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A New Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication System: Visual-Enhanced Cooperative Traffic Operations

The advent of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) has highlighted the necessity for robust communication systems between vehicles and their environment. This study introduces a novel vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication system, termed the Visual-Enhanced Cooperative Traffic Operations (VECTOR) system. The VECTOR system addresses the need for robust communication by converting dynamic data (including velocity and yaw angle data) into binary code, which is displayed on an LED panel mounted on the top of the vehicle. Following vehicles detect this panel and decode the information using a camera, implementing a visual-based communication method. VECTOR system employs a comprehensive five-module process. Initially, polynomial fitting techniques are applied to velocity data over fixed time intervals using third-degree polynomials, with validation via R² and MSE metrics. The second module converts velocity and yaw angle data into binary form, thereby enhancing detection and processing efficiency. The third module focuses on improving detection stability across various environmental conditions to enhance traffic safety. The fourth module decodes the binary data back into trajectory information, ensuring the fidelity of velocity and yaw angles. The final module integrates eco-control through the VECTOR system, employing advanced control algorithms to minimize energy consumption in CAVs. Experimental evaluations conducted using a modified CAV test platform based on the Lincoln MKZ demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the VECTOR system, achieving a 75% R-squared accuracy rate in replicating original velocity data. This methodology not only highlights potential applications but also underscores significant implications for advancing CAV technology.

Ma, Ke↗
DOE OSTI2021

A short hepatitis C virus NS5A peptide expression by AAV vector modulates human T cell activation and reduces vector immunogenicity

Viral vector-mediated gene therapies have the potential to treat many human diseases; however, host immune responses against the vector and/or the transgene pose a safety risk to the patients and can negatively impact product efficacy. Thus, novel strategies to reduce vector immunogenicity are critical for the advancement of these therapies. T cell activation (TCA) is required for the development of immune responses during gene therapy. We hypothesized that modulation of TCA by incorporating a novel viral immunomodulatory factor into a viral vector may reduce unwanted TCA and immune responses during gene therapy. To test this hypothesis, we identified an immunomodulatory domain of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) NS protein 5A (NS5A) protein and studied the effect of viral vectors expressing NS5A peptide on TCA. Lentiviral vector-mediated expression of a short 20-mer peptide derived from the NS5A protein in human T cells was sufficient to inhibit TCA. Synthetic 20-mer NS5A peptide also inhibited TCA in primary human T cells. Mechanistically, the NS5A protein interacted with Lck and inhibited proximal TCR signaling. Importantly, NS5A peptide expression did not cause global T cell signaling dysfunction as distal T cell signaling was not inhibited. Finally, recombinant adeno-associated virus (AAV) vector expressing the 20-mer NS5A peptide reduced both the recall antigen and the TCR-mediated activation of human T cells and did not cause global T cell signaling dysfunction. Together, these data suggest that expression of a 20-mer NS5A peptide by an AAV vector may reduce unwanted TCA and may contribute to lower vector immunogenicity during gene therapy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Early Fault Detection in Particle Accelerator Power Electronics Using Ensemble Learning

Early fault detection and fault prognosis are crucial to ensure efficient and safe operations of complex engineering systems such as the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and its power electronics (high voltage converter modulators). Following an advanced experimental facility setup that mimics SNS operating conditions, the authors successfully conducted 21 early fault detection experiments, where fault precursors are introduced in the system to a degree enough to cause degradation in the waveform signals, but not enough to reach a real fault. Nine different machine learning techniques based on ensemble trees, convolutional neural networks, support vector machines, and hierarchical voting ensembles are proposed to detect the fault precursors. Although all 9 models have shown a perfect and identical performance during the training and testing phase, the performance of most models has decreased in the next test phase once they got exposed to realworld data from the 21 experiments. The hierarchical voting ensemble, which features multiple layers of diverse models, maintains a distinguished performance in early detection of the fault precursors with 95% success rate (20/21 tests), followed by adaboost and extremely randomized trees with 52% and 48% success rates, respectively. The support vector machine models were the worst with only 24% success rate (5/21 tests). The study concluded that a successful implementation of machine learning in the SNS or particle accelerator power systems would require a major upgrade in the controller and the data acquisition system to facilitate streaming and handling big data for the machine learning models. In addition, this study shows that the best performing models were diverse and based on the ensemble concept to reduce the bias and hyperparameter sensitivity of individual models.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

CRISPR/Cas9 as an antiviral against Orthopoxviruses using an AAV vector

A vaccine for smallpox is no longer administered to the general public, and there is no proven, safe treatment specific to poxvirus infections, leaving people susceptible to infections by smallpox and other zoonotic Orthopoxviruses such as monkeypox. Using vaccinia virus (VACV) as a model organism for other Orthopoxviruses, CRISPR–Cas9 technology was used to target three essential genes that are conserved across the genus, including A17L, E3L, and I2L. Three individual single guide RNAs (sgRNAs) were designed per gene to facilitate redundancy in rendering the genes inactive, thereby reducing the reproduction of the virus. The efficacy of the CRISPR targets was tested by transfecting human embryonic kidney (HEK293) cells with plasmids encoding both SaCas9 and an individual sgRNA. This resulted in a reduction of VACV titer by up to 93.19% per target. Following the verification of CRISPR targets, safe and targeted delivery of the VACV CRISPR antivirals was tested using adeno-associated virus (AAV) as a packaging vector for both SaCas9 and sgRNA. Similarly, AAV delivery of the CRISPR antivirals resulted in a reduction of viral titer by up to 92.97% for an individual target. Overall, we have identified highly specific CRISPR targets that significantly reduce VACV titer as well as an appropriate vector for delivering these CRISPR antiviral components to host cells in vitro.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variational approaches to constructing the many-body nuclear ground state for quantum computing

Here, we explore the preparation of specific nuclear states on gate-based quantum hardware using variational algorithms. Large-scale classical diagonalizations of the nuclear shell model have reached sizes of 10 9 –10 10 basis states but are still severely limited by computational resources. Quantum computing can, in principle, solve such systems exactly with exponentially fewer resources than classical computing. Exact solutions for large systems require many qubits and large gate depth, but variational approaches can effectively limit the required gate depth. We use the unitary coupled cluster approach to construct approximations of the ground-state vectors, later to be used in dynamics calculations. The testing ground is the phenomenological shell model space, which allows us to mimic the complexity of the internucleon interactions. We find that often one needs to minimize over a large number of parameters, using a large number of entanglements that makes the application on existing hardware challenging. Prospects for rapid improvements with more capable hardware are, however, very encouraging.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Situational Awareness in Distribution Grid Using Micro-PMU Data: A Machine Learning Approach

The recent development of distribution-level phasor measurement units, a.k.a. micro-PMUs, has been an important step towards achieving situational awareness in power distribution networks. The challenge however is to transform the large amount of data that is generated by micro-PMUs to actionable information and then match the information to use cases with practical value to system operators. This open problem is addressed in this paper. First, we introduce a novel data-driven event detection technique to pick out valuable portion of data from extremely large raw micro-PMU data. Subsequently, a datadriven event classifier is developed to effectively classify power quality events. Importantly, we use field expert knowledge and utility records to conduct an extensive data-driven event labeling. Moreover, certain aspects from event detection analysis are adopted as additional features to be fed into the classifier model. In this regard, a multi-class support vector machine (multi-SVM) classifier is trained and tested over 15 days of real-world data from two micro-PMUs on a distribution feeder in Riverside, CA. In total, we analyze 1.2 billion measurement points, and 10,700 events. Here, the effectiveness of the developed event classifier is compared with prevalent multi-class classification methods, including k-nearest neighbor method as well as decision-tree method. Importantly, two real-world use-cases are presented for the proposed data analytics tools, including remote asset monitoring and distribution-level oscillation analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Differential cross-section measurements for the electroweak production of dijets in association with a Z boson in proton–proton collisions at ATLAS

Differential cross-section measurements are presented for the electroweak production of two jets in association with a Z boson. These measurements are sensitive to the vector-boson fusion production mechanism and provide a fundamental test of the gauge structure of the Standard Model. The analysis is performed using proton–proton collision data collected by ATLAS at √s=13 TeV and with an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . The differential cross-sections are measured in the Z→ℓ + ℓ - decay channel (ℓ=e,μ) as a function of four observables: the dijet invariant mass, the rapidity interval spanned by the two jets, the signed azimuthal angle between the two jets, and the transverse momentum of the dilepton pair. The data are corrected for the effects of detector inefficiency and resolution and are sufficiently precise to distinguish between different state-of-the-art theoretical predictions calculated using Powheg+Pythia8, Herwig7+Vbfnlo and Sherpa 2.2. The differential cross-sections are used to search for anomalous weak-boson self-interactions using a dimension-six effective field theory. The measurement of the signed azimuthal angle between the two jets is found to be particularly sensitive to the interference between the Standard Model and dimension-six scattering amplitudes and provides a direct test of charge-conjugation and parity invariance in the weak-boson self-interactions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Improving Monsoon Precipitation Prediction Using Combined Convolutional and Long Short Term Memory Neural Network

Precipitation downscaling is widely employed for enhancing the resolution and accuracy of precipitation products from general circulation models (GCMs). In this study, we propose a novel statistical downscaling method to foster GCMs’ precipitation prediction resolution and accuracy for the monsoon region. We develop a deep neural network composed of a convolution and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent module to estimate precipitation based on well-resolved atmospheric dynamical fields. The proposed model is compared against the GCM precipitation product and classical downscaling methods in the Xiangjiang River Basin in South China. Results show considerable improvement compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)-Interim reanalysis precipitation. Also, the model outperforms benchmark downscaling approaches, including (1) quantile mapping, (2) the support vector machine, and (3) the convolutional neural network. To test the robustness of the model and its applicability in practical forecasting, we apply the trained network for precipitation prediction forced by retrospective forecasts from the ECMWF model. Compared to the ECMWF precipitation forecast, our model makes better use of the resolved dynamical field for more accurate precipitation prediction at lead times from 1 day up to 2 weeks. This superiority decreases with the forecast lead time, as the GCM’s skill in predicting atmospheric dynamics is diminished by the chaotic effect. Finally, we build a distributed hydrological model and force it with different sources of precipitation inputs. Hydrological simulation forced with the neural network precipitation estimation shows significant advantage over simulation forced with the original ERA-Interim precipitation (with NSE value increases from 0.06 to 0.64), and the performance is only slightly worse than the observed precipitation forced simulation (NSE = 0.82). This further proves the value of the proposed downscaling method, and suggests its potential for hydrological forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dark energy survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. Here, we present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

A regression algorithm for accelerated lattice QCD that exploits sparse inference on the D-Wave quantum annealer

We propose a regression algorithm that utilizes a learned dictionary optimized for sparse inference on a D-Wave quantum annealer. In this regression algorithm, we concatenate the independent and dependent variables as a combined vector, and encode the high-order correlations between them into a dictionary optimized for sparse reconstruction. On a test dataset, the dependent variable is initialized to its average value and then a sparse reconstruction of the combined vector is obtained in which the dependent variable is typically shifted closer to its true value, as in a standard inpainting or denoising task. Here, a quantum annealer, which can presumably exploit a fully entangled initial state to better explore the complex energy landscape, is used to solve the highly non-convex sparse coding optimization problem. The regression algorithm is demonstrated for a lattice quantum chromodynamics simulation data using a D-Wave 2000Q quantum annealer and good prediction performance is achieved. The regression test is performed using six different values for the number of fully connected logical qubits, between 20 and 64. The scaling results indicate that a larger number of qubits gives better prediction accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗