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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Predicting permeation of compounds across the outer membrane of P. aeruginosa using molecular descriptors

The ability Gram-negative pathogens have at adapting and protecting themselves against antibiotics has increasingly become a public health threat. Data-driven models identifying molecular properties that correlate with outer membrane (OM) permeation and growth inhibition while avoiding efflux could guide the discovery of novel classes of antibiotics. Here we evaluate 174 molecular descriptors in 1260 antimicrobial compounds and study their correlations with antibacterial activity in Gram-negative Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The descriptors are derived from traditional approaches quantifying the compounds’ intrinsic physicochemical properties, together with, bacterium-specific from ensemble docking of compounds targeting specific MexB binding pockets, and all-atom molecular dynamics simulations in different subregions of the OM model. Using these descriptors and the measured inhibitory concentrations, we design a statistical protocol to identify predictors of OM permeation/inhibition. We find consistent rules across most of our data highlighting the role of the interaction between the compounds and the OM. An implementation of the rules uncovered in our study is shown, and it demonstrates the accuracy of our approach in a set of previously unseen compounds. Our analysis sheds new light on the key properties drug candidates need to effectively permeate/inhibit P. aeruginosa, and opens the gate to similar data-driven studies in other Gram-negative pathogens.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gumby: Quantifying multi-modal model resiliency

With the rise of cheap data and sensors, more use cases are emerging for multi-input models. Research has shown that including multiple data modalities can improve performance, suggesting that deep learning models can successfully learn to leverage complementary information from different modalities. However, this improved predictive power comes with unanticipated costs: additional inputs change model resiliency and expand the threat space for adversarial attacks. We first provide theoretical underpinnings for how adversarial success scales with input dimension. We then characterize the performance of a suite of multispectral deep learning models with different fusion approaches, quantify their relative reliance on different input bands, and evaluate their robustness to naturalistic and adversarial image corruptions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of data‐driven exponential integrators with application to modeling of delay photocurrents

Abstract Radiation‐induced photocurrent effects represent a threat to microelectronic components operating in space, manmade and terrestrial radiation environments. Analysis of these threats by circuit simulations requires accurate and computationally efficient compact models. Most existing compact models are based on closed form analytic solutions of the governing equations and require empirical assumptions and idealizations that can limit their validity. In this paper we formulate an alternative numerical, data‐driven approach that learns a compact model from data representative of the type of measurements one can obtain in an experimental facility. To develop the model we start from a generic discrete‐time dynamical system and then use physics knowledge to refine its structure. Numerical studies demonstrate the potential of the model and establish some empirical guidelines for its training.

Bochev, Pavel↗

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mitigating Impact Through Community-Engaged Flood Modeling

Urban pluvial flooding poses a growing threat to the city of Baltimore, driven by heavy rainfall, increased impervious area, and aging infrastructure. Adapting to the risks posed by pluvial flooding is critical for building greater climate resiliency in Baltimore's Inner Harbor Watershed. This study addresses these challenges through community-informed decision analysis, which uses hydrologic modeling and optimization tools to identify robust flooding adaptation pathways. We will collaborate with community partners to identify key concerns and objectives regarding flooding. These concerns have been purposefully built in to a combined surface-subsurface dynamic flow simulation model. Model outputs are used to identify flooding locations within the Inner Harbor, and to test adaptation methods. Machine learning will be used search for solutions which meet diverse environmental, financial, and social goals, and solution performance will be examined under a wide range of potential future climatic conditions and integrated with an adaptive planning approach. This novel set of adaptation pathways will enhance the City's capacity to respond to evolving pluvial flood risk.

climate resilience↗

GridSTIX

SF-25-112 Grid-STIX is a comprehensive extension of the STIX (Structured Threat Information Expression) 2.1 ontology specifically designed for electrical grid cybersecurity applications. This ontology provides a standardized, machine-readable framework for modeling grid assets, operational technology devices, threats, vulnerabilities, supply chain risks, and security relationships in electrical power systems. ## Key Features - **Comprehensive Grid Coverage**: Physical assets, OT devices, grid components, sensors, and energy storage systems - **Zero Trust Architecture**: Policy decision points, enforcement points, trust brokers, and continuous monitoring - **AMI Infrastructure**: Advanced metering networks, head-end systems, mesh gateways, and MDM systems - **Advanced Security Modeling**: Attack patterns, vulnerabilities, mitigations, and supply chain risks - **Critical Grid Relationships**: Power flow, protection, control, and synchronization relationships - **Supply Chain Security**: Supplier modeling, country of origin tracking, and risk assessment - **Protocol Support**: DNP3, Modbus, IEC 61850, IEC 60870-5-104, OPC-UA, and IEEE standards - **Python Code Generation**: Automated STIX-compliant Python class generation from ontologies - **Interactive Visualization**: Enhanced HTML network graphs with grid-specific categorization - **STIX 2.1 Compliance**: Full compatibility with STIX threat intelligence ecosystem

Blakely, Benjamin [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗

Psychosocial drivers of land management behaviour: How threats, norms, and context influence deforestation intentions

Understanding how private landholders make deforestation decisions is of paramount importance for conservation. Behavioural frameworks from the social sciences have a lot to offer researchers and practitioners, yet these insights remain underutilised in describing what drives landholders' deforestation intentions under important political, social, and management contexts. Using survey data of private landholders in Queensland, Australia, we compare the ability of two popular behavioural models to predict future deforestation intentions, and propose a more integrated behavioural model of deforestation intentions. We found that the integrated model outperformed other models, revealing the importance of threat perceptions, attitudes, and social norms for predicting landholders' deforestation intentions. Social capital, policy uncertainty, and years of experience are important contextual moderators of these psychological factors. Here, we conclude with recommendations for promoting behaviour change in this deforestation hotspot and highlight how others can adopt similar approaches to illuminate more proximate drivers of environmental behaviours in other contexts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accelerating Informed Local Climate Action by Improving Access to DOE Predictive Modeling and Science-Based Tools

The threat of climate change is becoming increasingly urgent, and local governments across the United States are working to develop and implement climate action plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impacts of climate change. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science, Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) has been developing a range of tools and technologies to help predict the potential multi-faceted impacts from climate change given varying environmental and socioeconomic scenarios. However, local governments have been slow to engage with these scientific assets due to a lack of understanding and awareness. The DOE researchers interviewed highlighted three primary types of resources that could benefit local governments and climate practitioners: climate models, modeled datasets, and scientific journal articles. Although many of these resources are open source and available to the public, there were several challenges identified in translating these resources and their research insights directly to decision-makers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards Smart Grids Enhanced Situation Awareness: A Bi-Level Quasi-Static State Estimation Model

Smart Grid situational awareness is provided by Energy Management Systems. A core process of these systems is State Estimation. The great majority of state estimators model the Smart Grid through a set of nonlinear algebraic equations, named the measurement model. Problem formulation considers the Gauss solution. Several model improvements have been presented regarding the Gauss solution, aiming between others to provide measurement noise robustness to the state estimation process. While considerable effort has been focused on such developments, state estimation is still constrained by the implicit modelling error, and thus inevitably vulnerable to cyber-threats. In this work, a state estimation bi-level formal model is presented towards Smart Grids enhanced situational awareness considering the concepts of synthetic measurements and innovation. Comparative test results with the state-of-the-art on the IEEE 14-bus system are presented highlighting improved situational awareness to bad data. Easy-to-implement model, without hard-to-derive parameters, built-on the classic weighted least squares solution, highlight potential aspects for real-life implementation.

cyber security↗

Burst pressure models and validations for thick-walled pipelines containing corrosion defects

Corrosion is one major threat to pipeline integrity. Over the past decades, many corrosion models have been developed for determining the remaining strength of corroded pipelines, including ASME B31.G, Modified B31.G, LPC, PCORRC and their modified models. All these corrosion models are applicable only to large diameter, thin-walled pipelines with a diameter to wall thickness ratio D/t ≥ 20. In practice, many pipelines have a small diameter and thick wall with a D/t ratio < 20, and thus an adequate corrosion model is needed for assessing remaining strength for corroded thick-walled pipelines. This paper briefly reviews the theoretical burst pressure models for defect-free thin and thick-walled pipelines and four representative corrosion assessment models for thin-walled corroded pipelines. On this basis, two modified corrosion models are proposed to thick-walled pipelines in terms of the average shear stress yield theory. To verify the proposed corrosion models, comprehensive validations are performed. Numerical validations include the elastic-plastic finite element analysis to determine burst pressure for pipelines without and with corrosion defects and the model evaluation using a large dataset of available FEA results of burst pressure for machined defects. Experimental validations include a set of burst pressure tests for defect-free thick-walled pipes with different thicknesses and the model evaluation using one large burst dataset for machined defects with flat bottoms and another large dataset for real corrosion defects with curved river bottom profiles. Both numerical and experimental validations show that the proposed corrosion models can more accurately predict the remaining strength for corroded thin and thick-walled pipelines.

Pipeline↗

Graph-Based Modeling for the Detection and Tracking of Sarin-Surrogate-Induced Neurotoxicity Using a Human-Relevant, In-Vitro Brain Model

Organophosphorus (OP) nerve agents are a chemical threat to the United States, to the civilian population (e.g., pesticides) and historically weaponized (e.g., sarin) as chemical warfare agents. The unprecedented, accelerated process from “bench-to-bedside” during the SARSCov2 pandemic has made it clear that technology and tools need to be readily available for immediate response. Advances in human organ tissue mimetic systems are a promising technology to evaluate the human-relevant response in vitro for basic and applied research and drug screening. In particular, current brain microphysiological systems (MPS) have the capability to monitor and detect changes in engineered human neural circuit activity. However, current data analytics approaches for these systems lack the granularity to functionally detect and distinguish the different mechanisms that occur in the brain following neurotoxicity, injury, and disease. The goal of this project was to advance the computational analytical capabilities of the brain MPS to detect functional changes in neural circuit structure at different stages of Sarin surrogate-induced neurotoxicity. We developed graph-based models to (1) identify the composition of the neural circuit structure; (2) detect and monitor how this structure changes following sarin-induced neurotoxicity; and (3) evaluate the analytical pipeline using known/promising oxime reactivators. Through experiments on the bMPS where in vitro neuronal cultures were exposed to a sarin surrogate, we demonstrated the capabilities of our computational pipeline to identify different responses in the functional networks of brain cells exposed to low and high concentrations of the nerve agent. We identified a biphasic response of human neural network activity following exposure to a sarin-surrogate that had not been reported in the literature before. The graph-based models and software developed in this project can be used for future studies that leverage the brain MPS technology, such as treatment efficacy assessment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Engineered human vascular models to study endothelial dysfunction in infectious disease

Vascular involvement plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of numerous emerging viral threats, with climate changes amplifying the likelihood of these diseases evolving into pandemics. Establishing an infectable and physiologically relevant human in vitro model holds immense importance in comprehending the pathogenesis of these threats and devising effective countermeasures. Although in vivo models provide valuable insight into disease, their application is restricted by interspecies variations, particularly concerning pathogens exclusive to humans. Moreover, animal models often fail to replicate comorbidities prevalent in patient populations, thus limiting our understanding of disease behavior in humans. In this study, we have devised a testing platform aimed at exploring pathogen interactions with innate immunity within the vasculature, encompassing both healthy and dysfunctional endothelial conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electricity Subsector Transmission Resilience Maturity Model (TRMM) User Guide

The electric transmission sector is facing a range of threats to its functionality that are either new, more severe than experienced in earlier years, or more well understood. Such threats include more frequent and more severe extreme weather events, wildfires, droughts, and human-caused physical and cyberattacks. They also include geological, electromagnetic, and biological events. The novelty or increasing severity of these threats creates a significant need for transmission owners to implement programs to prevent, prepare for, respond to, and recover from such incidents. The national and economic security of the United States depends on the reliable functioning of the Nation’s critical infrastructure in the face of such threats, and the transmission networks are essential components of that infrastructure. The Electricity Subsector Transmission Resilience Maturity Model (TRMM) is a tool that a transmission organization can use to objectively evaluate and benchmark its currently established transmission resilience strategies, programs, policies, and investments, in order to target and prioritize enhancements where needed. The TRMM was developed to address the unique characteristics of the transmission system. The model can enable users to: • evaluate and benchmark their organization’s resilience capabilities, effectively and consistently • prioritize actions and investments to improve the resilience of their systems • share transmission-related knowledge, best practices, and relevant references within their organization and with business partners as a means to improve resilience capabilities • contribute to increasing the overall resilience of the Nation’s transmission systems. The TRMM provides descriptive rather than prescriptive industry-focused guidance. The model content is presented at a high level of abstraction so that it can be interpreted by transmission organizations of various types, structures, and sizes. The model is designed to an be easy-to-use, self-assessment tool.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Simulations of ocean deoxygenation in the historical era: insights from forced and coupled models

Ocean deoxygenation due to anthropogenic warming represents a major threat to marine ecosystems and fisheries. Challenges remain in simulating the modern observed changes in the dissolved oxygen (O 2 ). Here, we present an analysis of upper ocean (0-700m) deoxygenation in recent decades from a suite of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ocean biogeochemical simulations. The physics and biogeochemical simulations include both ocean-only (the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 and 2, OMIP1 and OMIP2) and coupled Earth system (CMIP6 Historical) configurations. We examine simulated changes in the O 2 inventory and ocean heat content (OHC) over the past 5 decades across models. The models simulate spatially divergent evolution of O 2 trends over the past 5 decades. The trend (multi-model mean and spread) for upper ocean global O 2 inventory for each of the MIP simulations over the past 5 decades is 0.03 ± 0.39×10 14 [mol/decade] for OMIP1, -0.37 ± 0.15×10 14 [mol/decade] for OMIP2, and -1.06 ± 0.68×10 14 [mol/decade] for CMIP6 Historical, respectively. The trend in the upper ocean global O2 inventory for the latest observations based on the World Ocean Database 2018 is -0.98×10 14 [mol/decade], in line with the CMIP6 Historical multi-model mean, though this recent observations-based trend estimate is weaker than previously reported trends. A comparison across ocean-only simulations from OMIP1 and OMIP2 suggests that differences in atmospheric forcing such as surface wind explain the simulated divergence across configurations in O 2 inventory changes. Additionally, a comparison of coupled model simulations from the CMIP6 Historical configuration indicates that differences in background mean states due to differences in spin-up duration and equilibrium states result in substantial differences in the climate change response of O 2 . Finally, we discuss gaps and uncertainties in both ocean biogeochemical simulations and observations and explore possible future coordinated ocean biogeochemistry simulations to fill in gaps and unravel the mechanisms controlling the O 2 changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DRE: Designing for Resilience through Emulation

Threats to cyber- and cyber-physical systems have continued to increase over the past decade. Now more than ever, it is vital that cyber-physical system stakeholders have the tools to deeply understand their systems and the threats they face. High-fidelity modeling capabilities are powerful tools to support system understanding and decision-making, but they currently lack scientifically rigorous experimentation practices and infrastructures. The purpose of the project Designing for Resilience through Emulation (DRE) was to bring together past research and existing tools into a new pipeline to improve our ability to quantitatively evaluate future cyber scenarios. DRE offers new integrated capabilities for large dataset collection, noise studies, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and surrogate modeling using a cyber-physical system emulation environment. These new capabilities significantly improve our ability to establish the credibility of the answers derived from emulation environments, ultimately leading to better critical decision support.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗